World Championship - Team Time Trial Preview & Favorites

World Championship Team Time Trial in Florence.
www.zeitgeistimages.co.uk

The World Championship week in Florence starts out with a team time trial this Sunday. Last year Omega Pharma Quickstep won in front of BMC and GreenEdge and this time I expect the same three teams to make the podium. However, Team Sky has the manpower to change a repetition of the 2012-podium.

Unlike last year’s edition, this course is - except for a short climb of 4:30 min in the beginning - completely flat. This combined with a distance of 57.2 km means it’s all about the speed.

Therefore, we can expect the teams with big powerhouses to fight for the win. There are long and flat sections without any turns and guys like Tony Martin, Taylor Phinney, Fabian Cancellara and Luke Durbridge can really make a difference here. The last 10 km are a very technical. There are at least 10 sharp corners in this part and you can lose and gain a lot of time in these corners. It's very important not to panic in the corners. The last time check is right before the technical part so it's not certain the ranking here will be the same as at finish.

Looking at the teams this year, it’s clear that Omega Pharma Quickstep is the big favorite. The Belgian team sends five (Martin, Velits, Chavanel, Terpstra & Vandewalle) of the six winning riders from last year. Only change is Tom Boonen who is being replaced by season sensation Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole has been in Top8 in all of the six individual time trials he’s been doing this year! While other teams may not look as strong as last year, OPQS is actually even better this time. I clearly expect the team to repeat their winning performance from 2012.

BMC came very close to winning last year but this time, I think they will have to fight hard just to get the silver medals. Time trial specialist Marco Pinotti is missing and so are Alessandro Ballan and Philippe Gilbert. Instead, Steve Cummings, Daniel Oss and Michael Schar are joining Taylor Phinney, Tejay Van Garderen and Manuel Quinziato. Both Phinney, Cummings and Schar were part of the BMC team winning the team time trial in Qatar earlier this year. However, BMC hasn’t performed well in the important team time trials the rest of the year and without a key rider like Pinotti, I think a silver medal - if even so - is the best they can get in Florence.

The biggest threat to BMC’s second place is GreenEdge. The Australian team did very well last year, even on a course not suited for their riders’ characteristics. With big engines like Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Jens Mouris and Daryl Impey, GreenEdge will be able to extremely fast on the long flat parts. Add to that Brett Lancaster and Michael Hepburn and you really have a strong team for a fast course. All six riders live in Girona and they have been training together for this discipline the last two weeks. A team time trial is all about working together as one and looking at the riders and their training, I think GreenEdge is the best pick to win this race if something happens to OPQS.

The way I see it, it will be difficult for the rest of the teams to medal against OPQS, GreenEdge and BMC. However, teams like Radioshack, Garmin, Saxo-Tinkoff, Astana and especially Team Sky will all be gunning for the podium as well. Garmin used to be among the best in this discipline but it’s been a while since they have produced a great team time trial. Astana did very well in the Giro (third) and in the Vuelta (first) but without Vincenzo Nibali to lead them, I doubt they will be able to make Top3 this time.

On the last day of the Vuelta, Nicolas Roche said that Saxo-Tinkoff was very eager to do well in Florence. Bjarne Riis has always been very fond of the team time trial and according to Roche, the Danish team aims for a spot on the podium. Christensen, Boaro, Roche, Mørkøv, Sørensen and Tosatto are the six riders for Sunday’s race and it will be interesting to see if they can live up to their own expectations. Personally, I don’t think they will do better than top5 but it wouldn’t be the first time the Danish team surprises in a TTT.

Radioshack is another solid Top5 candidate and on a good day may even Top3. Fabian Cancellara is in excellent shape right now and together with Jesse Sergent, Hayden Roulston, Yaroslav Popovych, Markel Iriza and youngster Bob Jungels, the team should be able to keep a high pace. However, Cancellara’s big goal this year is the road race. He’s the bookmakers’ top favorite for the title and the question is; “how deep will Cancellara dig in the time trials?” None of the other favorites are doing all three races (TTT, ITT & RR) and if Cancellara isn’t pushing it to his limits, he won’t be able to carry the team like he did in the team time trial in the Vuelta last month.

Map of the 57.2 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence. Pay attention to the technical last part of the route.

In recent years, it would be a mistake not to mention Movistar among the candidates. Once again, they have a strong team for this time trial but I doubt they will be able to better than 7^th-10^th place. Rui Costa, Jonathan Castroviejo, Andrey Amador, Jesus Herrada, Ruben Plaza and Eloy Teruel are all good time trialists but as stated in the beginning, this race is all about speed. Had this been a hilly team time trial like the ones we’ve seen in the Giro and the Vuelta in the past, Movistar would have been one of the favorites. However, on a 57.2 km flat course, there are simply other teams with bigger engines.

As of Saturday afternoon Garmin still hasn’t released their final teams yet. Both have the firepower to do very well this Sunday but as mentioned earlier, Garmin hasn’t really been able to deliver a good team time trial on the big scene for a while. Still, judging from the eight pre-selected riders, this may be their strongest team in a long time. No matter which six riders they end up picking, they are all strong on a flat course like this one. The team time trial used to be their specialty and I’m sure Garmin will be eager to show the world they still have what it takes fight for the win against the best teams.  

On paper, Team Sky also has a very strong team. All of their six selected riders (Froome, Porte, Boasson Hagen, Kiryienka, Siutsou & Thomas) did the Tour de France this year and individually they are all great time trialists. Chris Froome is leading the team but just like Fabian Cancellara, Froome's main focus is on the road race next Sunday. Of course, both Froome and Cancellara will be a huge help for their teams but thinking of the road race, they may hold back a little or decide not to take any risks in many sharp corner in the last part of the course.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv - and click here to see the starting order.

Vuelta a España: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Movistar and Alejandro Valverde missed out once again on stage 3. They didn’t have enough fresh riders to close the gap on stage 2 and somehow they managed to make the same mistake Monday. Valverde even said he had the legs to win. Instead Chris Horner attacked and took an impressive stage win, only surpassed by his Spanish interview afterwards.

In my overall preview I wrote that Chris Horner was targeting the Red Jersey within the first couple of stages. One of the key points for that to happen was a strong team time trial and thanks to Fabian Cancellara, Horner had a chance to take the jersey. The 41 years old American climber is now the oldest rider ever to win a stage in a Grand Tour and he should have no problems keeping the leader’s jersey on stage 4.

Tuesday’s 189 km long stage takes the riders west from Lalín/A Estrada towards the finishing line in Fisterra. The riders will be battling the crosswind for most of the stage and we could see the peloton getting split up again. After 152.8 km the riders reach the feared ascent up to Mirador de Ézaro. This is only a category 3 climb but the 1.8 km towards the top have an average gradient of 13 %! There are only 34.4 km to go from top of Mirador de Ézaro and a strong team could really blow the race apart. Last year, stage 12 of the Vuelta finished on Mirador de Ézaro and in case you need a re-view click here.

"The stage to the end of the world".
Photo via @lavuelta on Twitter

This stage is called “the stage to end of the world” and it’s easy to see why. With 5 km to go, the peloton turns left and from hereon they simply continue straight out until the road ends. It’s a spectacular finish with a slightly uphill run-in towards the line. The final 2 km kick up with about 3.5 % and this time, Gianni Meersman shouldn’t have problems fighting for the win. Of course, he has to survive Mirador de Ézaro first. There is a soft left-hand corner with 200 meters to go and with a tailwind towards the line, first rider of out this corner most likely wins the stage.

Meersman finished 38^th on stage 3, just 22 seconds behind the favorites. The final kilometer was too hard for the Belgian rider, but the finish in Fisterra is perfect for him. Gianni Meersman arrived to the Vuelta with his eyes on this stage and I think he will be very difficult to beat.

Another strong candidate is Michael Matthews. The former U23 World Champion is a real specialist on these kind of finishes and he comes to the race with two fresh stage wins from Utah in the bag.  GreenEdge didn’t manage to set up Simon Gerrans for stage 3 but I think they have a good chance to set up Matthews for stage 4.

Argos-Shimano have two interesting riders for this stage in Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg. Both are very fast on the line in a sprint like this and it will be interesting to see if the two Grand Tour debutants can get over Mirador de Ézaro with the peloton. FDJ.fr also have a strong duo for these kind of finishes. Geoffrey Soupe and Anthony Roux are both in great shape right now. Especially Roux who won stage 4 of Tour of Burgos and finished in top4 on the first three stages of the race.

The following three stages are for the pure sprinters so this is the last chance in a while for the strong puncheurs.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 4, Laura picks Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 1 (TTT) Preview & Favorites

As usually, the Vuelta starts out with a team time trial. This year, the distance is longer than the previous three years and that means we will see much bigger differences in the classification early on.

The teams get to the starting ramp in Vilanova De Arousa by boat and from here the route takes them south towards Sanxenxo. The profile is rather flat - very different from last year - and we can expect the teams with big engines like Omega Pharma Quickstep (Tony Martin) and Radioshack (Fabian Cancellara) to do well. The riders will be enjoying a tailwind for the majority of the route and that too favors the two mentioned teams.

The only technical part of the course is the final two kilometers with a couple of tricky turns but overall, this is not a difficult team time trial.

The map of Stage 1
Click for larger view.

Omega Pharma Quickstep are the defending world champions in this discipline and they have been training hard to defend their title in less than a month in Florence. It’s true they don’t bring all their best time trialists for this Vuelta but with riders like Tony Martin, Kristof Vandewalle, Gianni Meersman and in-shape Zdenek Stybar, they will be very difficult to beat.

The way I see it, only Radioshack and Astana have a chance of beating OPQS. Despite a strong team, Radioshack never really manage to win these stages. However, with Fabian Cancellara, Ben Hermans, Chris Horner and Markel Irizar they definitely bring a solid team. Horner aims at taking the Red Jersey after the uphill finish on Stage 2 and if that is to happen, Radioshack need to put in a strong performance in this time trial.

Astana hope to give Vincenzo Nibali the best start possible with a win on the first day. To achieve that, they bring strong time trialists like Janez Brajkovic, Jakob Fuglsang, Andriy Grivko, Tanel Kangert and Nibali himself. Astana always do well in the team time trials and even though OPQS is the big favorite, I won’t be surprised if Astana wins this stage.

Movistar won the opening stage last year but on a much hillier course. They did well in the Giro d’Italia too but this time they don’t have riders like Alex Dowsett or Jonathan Castroviejo to crank up the speed in the flat parts. They bring a strong team, no doubts about that, but I don’t think it’s strong enough to repeat the impressive win from last year.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff aim at spot close to Top3 but that won’t be easy. They have a couple of solid riders like Roman Kreuziger and Michael Mørkøv but climbers like Rafal Majka, Chris Anker Sørensen and Oliver Zaugg don’t like this discipline. The Danish team may do Top5 but I will be surprised to see them in Top3.

Team Sky won the team time trial in the Giro d’Italia and finished third in the Tour de France this year. However, they don’t have riders like Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome or Richie Porte to keep the speed high this time. It’s true that many of the riders are the same who won the TTT in the Giro but without a real specialist I think Top5 is the best they can do.

Starting Order:
NetApp 18:48
GreenEdge 18:52
Argos-Shimano 18:56
BMC 19:00
Caja Rural 19:04
Cofidis 19:08
Vacansoleil-DCM 19:12
Omega Pharma Quickstep 19:16
Lampre 19:20
AG2R 19:24
Team Saxo-Tinkoff 19:28
Lotto-Belisol 19:32
FDJ 19:36
Team Sky 19:40
Cannondale 19:44
Garmin 19:48
Euskaltel 19:52
Belkin 19:56
Radioshack 20:00
Katusha 20:04
Movistar 20:08
Astana 20:12

Eurosport are covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For the opening Stage 1, Laura picks Movistar to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

 As expected, a breakaway made it on Stage 14 and now the focus is back on the GC riders. This last week of this year’s Tour de France will be extremely tough and it starts out with a killer mountain stage finishing on the legendary Mont Ventoux.

The Route

In the past, the stages on the French National Day were made for the breakaways. This year it’s different. Stage 15 is the longest stage of this year’s Tour and despite finishing on Mont Ventoux, the first 221 km are more of less flat. This means it’s highly unlike a break will make it all way. It will be another hot day in the saddle with temperatures over 30°c and after two hard stages, many will hope for a quiet start of the day.

A tailwind will help a morning breakaway get a good gap but the peloton will make sure it won’t get out of control. The intermediate sprint is located in Malaucène 15 km from the bottom of Mont Ventoux. Since the stage hasn’t been very hard until now, most of the sprinters should be able to fight for points for the Green Jersey.

The Finish

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux.

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux have an average gradient of 7.5 %. The climb starts out quite soft with the first five kilometers not getting over 4-5 %. From here on the road really kicks up with percentages over 10 %. It’s always very windy after getting out of the forest into the moon landscape and this year is no different. The riders will be fighting a headwind and this will make it very difficult to attack and stay away alone. The last right hand turn towards the finishing line is the final struggle of the day and with more than 10 % you need to have something left in the tank if you’re not already alone in front.

The Favorites

The last time the Tour de France had a stage finish on Mont Ventoux, Juanma Garate won in front of Tony Martin after a long breakaway. Starting on Mont Ventpux, the break seemed doomed but since Andy Schleck didn’t want to attack without his brother, Fränk, the GC riders killed the stage and let Garate and Martin stay in front. I don’t think that will happen this year.

Chris Froome already has a good gap to his rivals and they need to take use of every opportunity they get. Froome’s rivals simply have to attack and gain time and everybody wants to win on this mythical climb. Chris Froome himself had his first - ever - rendezvous with Mont Ventoux just two months ago when he went to test his legs on the climb. Riders like Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck already know what to expect of Mont Ventoux and I think they will have a little advantage on Froome. However, it doesn’t help much if they can’t drop him uphill - and I don’t think they can.

The way I see it, Chris Froome is the big favorite for the stage win. He lost a minute to Contador and Mollema in the crosswind and I’m sure he will be eager to take back the lost time time and show who’s the strongest rider in the race. Team Sky are missing Vasil ‘Chloroform’ Kiryienka and Edvald Boasson Hagen but they still have David Lopez, Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte to set the pace and keep Chris Froome in front. It’s not ideal but it has to do. If not Froome, I think the stage winner will be Spanish.

Movistar will most likely make the race hard but they only have Nairo Quintana for the overall classification. The Colombian super climber will probably put in a couple of strong attacks but I think Froome will respond. He knows can’t let Quintana get away. On the other hand, if Alejandro Vavlerde tries an attack I doubt Froome will chase him down instantly. Valverde has good memories from Mont Ventoux. In 2009, he took the yellow jersey in Critérium Dauphiné (which he later won overall) on the stage to Mont Ventoux. Back then, he ‘gave’ the stage win to Sylvester Szmyd but this time Valverde isn’t giving anything away. Tour de France was his big goal this season and he lost it all when a rider broke his wheel on Stage 13. Movistar are out for revenge and with a fast finish - should it come to that - I think Valverde will be tough to beat if Froome is just focusing on keeping the jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with Froome and Valverde in front.

Also, look out for Andy Schleck. He’s getting stronger and stronger every day and he may have some unfinished business with Mont Ventoux from the last time he was here. The headwind won’t favor Andy Schleck but on a good day he could take another big stage win in the Tour.

The Jokers

The French riders will be eager to get something out of this Tour de France, especially on La Fête Nationale (Bastille Day). When the route was revealed Thibaut Pinot was my first pick for the stage win but now I’m not so sure. He seemed to arrive to the Tour in great shape but he had nothing in his legs in the Pyrenees. Lately he’s been getting better but apparently he has some kind of throat problems now. If he’s back at his 2012 level, he will be a dangerous outsider but I doubt it. Pierre Rolland is another strong French candidate and contrary to Pinot, Rolland seems to have great legs. A stage win on Mont Ventoux will help Pierre Rolland significantly in his fight to keep the Polka Dot Jersey and the other GC riders don’t have to worry about him. Rolland is 25:33 minutes behind Froome in the overall classification and he only focuses on stage wins and the KOM competition.

I have high hopes for Daniel Martin too. The strong Irishman has already won a big mountain stage in this year’s Tour de France and he’s been “saving bullets” for Mont Ventoux the last couple of days. Martin is 11^th overall so he won’t be giving a card blanche. Still, he won’t be the first rider Froome, Contador and Mollema will start chasing down either. Daniel Martin says he’s a big fan of the cycling history and naturally winning on a famous climb like Mont Ventoux would be amazing. He seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he has a strong kick too. I don’t know if Daniel Martin still fits the “joker” category but if so, he’s my joker for the stage win.

So. To sum it up: Chris Froome is the strongest rider uphill but may not have the best team. Furthermore, his primary target is to keep the yellow jersey. Alejandro Valverde is eager to take revenge and his Movistar team is very strong. Valverde is now out of the GC and the other favorites won’t chase him down right away. Not even Belkin…

Favorites: Chris Froome & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Pierre Rolland & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 15:

Just to get you into the right mood, take a look at the Mont Ventoux stage from 2000 when Marco Pantani won after an amazing comeback and series of furious attacks in the end:

Tour de France: Stage 4 TTT Preview & Favorites

After three spectacular days on Corsica, Tour de France now continues on the mainland. The surroundings in Nice are not bad at all but for the TV-viewers Corsica will be missed. Before the Tour started, Omega Pharma Quickstep were the big favorite for this stage. However, the three days on Corsica have changed that fact a little.

The Route

Looking at the map this is a stage for the big powerhouses. The 25 km in Nice take place on big roads and only include nine corners. Furthermore, the profile is as flat as a pancake. The first 1.5 km are the most technical with three 90° corners before the riders get on Promenade des Anglais. There is a split time after 13 km and from here on there are only two corners to overcome. This means that fastest team at the split time won’t necessarily win the stage.

Starting Order
15:15 Argos-Shimano
15:19 Omega Pharma Quickstep
15:23 Lotto-Belisol
15:27 Cannondale
15:31 Cofidis
15:35 FDJ.fr
15:39 Belkin
15:43 Garmin-Sharp
15:47 Euskaltel
15:51 Sky
15:55 Katusha
15:59 Sojasun
16:03 Astana
16:07 Movistar
16:11 Team Saxo-Tinkoff
16:15 Europcar
16:19 AG2R
16:23 Orica-GreenEdge
16:27 Lampre
16:31 Vacansoleil-DCM
16:35 BMC
16:39 Radioshack

The Favorites

As stated in the beginning Omega Pharma Quickstep came to the Tour as the big favorites for this stage. The Belgian team won the World Championship last year and bring strong time trialists like Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Niki Terpstra and Peter Velits. Add to that list Mark Cavendish who always delivers a top performance in these disciplines. Unfortunately, Omega Pharma Quickstep haven’t had much luck so far. Tony Martin went down hard in the big crash on Stage 1 which also ended Mark Cavendish’ chances of the Yellow Jersey. Cavendish himself has been suffering from bronchitis lately and on Stage 3 Niki Terpstra crashed on a descent. I still think Omega Pharma Quickstep will make podium on this stage but they are not the big favorite anymore.

The way I see it, Garmin-Sharp is now the new favorite. The American team has always had high ambitions for the team time trials and they have an incredible strong team. All nine riders – except for Dan Martin - are good against the clock and David Millar will be eager to take the yellow jersey after he missed out with just one second on Stage 2. Garmin-Sharp won the team time trial in the Giro d’Italia last year and took the leader’s jersey and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do same thing in Nice.

Orica-GreenEdge also bring a very strong team for this TTT and the course really suits them with strong motors like Cameron Meyer, Brett Lancaster, Daryl Impey and especially Svein Tuft. The Australian team don’t have any riders for the overall classification and this is surely one of their key stages in this year’s Tour de France. The moral is high after they got their first ever stage win in the Tour de France and they are one of the few teams not worried about getting the Yellow Jersey “too soon”. The other GC teams would like to save energy for the last week but without a GC rider, GreenEdge will enjoy it to the fullest, should they win this team time trial.

The map of Stage 4. Click for larger view.

Originially Team Sky were one of my favorites for this stage but they too have been suffering from crashes. Geraint Thomas rides with a fractured pelvis and Ian Stannard is not doing great either after his crash. 

Chris Froome, Richie Porte and Edvald Boasson Hagen are all among the best time trialists in the race and even without Thomas on his best, they should be able to do a top performance. Still, I doubt they can pull of a win like they did in the Giro earlier this year.

It wouldn’t be fair not to mention Movistar. For unknown reasons the Spanish team are always considered underdogs for the team time trials. However, they have been among the absolute best teams the recent years. They won the opening TTT in Vuelta España last year and they took 2^nd place in Giro d’Italia this year. On paper, Movistar don’t bring many good time trialists but their really know how to make it work when it counts. Most people will probably be surprised should Movistar make Top3 but if you take a minute to think about, it shouldn’t really surprise you.

The Joker

I’ve already named the teams I think will make Top5 on this stage, therefore it’s difficult to pick a joker with a chance of surprising. Still, I have a good feeling about the Belkin team. Lars Boom has been very active the first two stages and he’s great against the clock. Like the Movistar the individual riders are not among the best time trialists in the race but together they make it work. Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink and Lars-Petter Nordhaug are known for being good in the mountains but they also know how to ride a good time trial. It seems to me that the Dutch team is super motivated after Belkin took over as team sponsor and I think they will put in strong ride in Nice.

Favorites: Garmin-Sharp / Omega Pharma Quickstep

Joker: Team Belkin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 4:

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 4 Preview

This is the typical finish on Arrate. It’s a classic in the recent year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and it was also used in the Vuelta España last year. Normally the rule is; “First rider in the last corner takes the stage”, but last year in the Vuelta, Purito started to celebrate a millisecond too early and by that gave the stage to Valverde.

Samuel Sanchez has won this stage the last three years in a row and naturally, he is among the favorites again this year. Still, it’s important to remember that Sanchez is not here in tip-top condition like the last years. This time he’s 100% focused on peaking in the Giro d’Italia and with strong climbers in the race like Contador, Henao, Porte, Betancur, Quintana, etc it won’t be easy to make it four in a row.

In my eyes, Alberto Contador is still the big GC favorite after stage 3. Contador won on Arrate back in 2009 after he soloed away from the other favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again this year. The first 6 km of the final climb have a steady gradient of 7,5% before the final “flat” (3%) 1,3 km. As mentioned in the previous previews, there aren’t any bonus seconds in the race, so if you want an advantage before the time trial, you need to attack when possible. 

I think Team Sky will try to control the race on final climb, like they have been doing all year long, and try to set Sergio Henao up for another lethal attack. Henao needs time before the time trial and right now he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. Movistar have strong riders like Rui Costa, Beñat Inxtausti and Nairo Quintana for this stage and I’m sure they will try something too. This climbs suits Quintana a lot more than the one on stage 3 and if he can cope with the expect rain, he will be very dangerous.

Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.

My personal joker for the stage is Pieter Weening. The morale on GreenEdge is sky high after two stage wins already and Weening did very well on La Lejana despite the steep gradients not being in his favor. Weening is fast on the line and if the we see a little group sprinting for the win again this year, I expcet Weening to be up there. The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The young Italian has been showing great shape lately and is always good in the rain. He has team mate Damiano Cunego to help him in the final and if Ulissi still up there in the final, he'll most likely win the stage.

Once again, it's difficult to pick only one rider as my favorite. Contador, Henao and Sanchez all seem like solid candidates, but I'll give Contador another shot to prove he's ready to win Vuelta Pais Vasco overall.

Favorite: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Pieter Weening / Diego Ulissi

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 3

If you have been following the Vuelta a Pais Vasco the last years the finish on Alto de Arrate won’t be unknown to you. Samuel Sanchez has won here the last three times but also Purito has proven to be strong on this climb.

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before Alto de Arrate and with the stage only being 155,3 km long we are in for another hard day - especially in this extreme heat. Most likely a group of 4-5 riders will get away early and fight for the KOM points but I’m pretty sure it will all come back together on the final climb. An important factor in this Vuelta is the bonus seconds on the finishing line and with 12 seconds to the winner you can be sure that the overall favorite will do everything they can to take the stage win.

Alto de Arrate. 2 km to go from the top.

Alberto Contador already showed on stage 2 how important the bonus seconds are to him, when he took 2 seconds in front of his rivals and being only 14 seconds after the GC, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over the Red jersey from Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo after the stage. Personally I think it will be a fight between Contador and Purito on Alto de Arrate and if they arrive together Purito will win the stage having the strongest sprint. As Samuel Sanchez has shown time after time it’s essential to be first in the last corner with 250 meters to go and Purito knows that as he took 2^nd place after Sanchez earlier this year. 

Alejandro Valverde is a bit of dark horse as this finish suits him very well, but wasn’t really set to do the Vuelta until the very last moment. If he’s ready this could be his day - as he would get the leader’s jersey too - but I have more faith in Purito to be honest.

As said I expect this to be a fight for the stage win between the overall favorites but if I should mention a joker it would be Javier Moreno from Movistar. Moreno finally got his chance with a ProTour team this year when he signed with Movistar and he showed right away how strong he is on the uphill sections when he - all alone - railed back all breakaway attempt on Willunga Hill so Valverde could sprint to victory.  Moreno has been great the entire season, latest in Vuelta a Burgos, and if he gets the green light I’m sure he will try an attack on Arrate.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Javi Moreno

---

To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Romain Sicard

Explanation: The French veteran is going for a fifth successive king of the mountains title but given the brutal parcours this year, Moncoutie will need to rack up the points as early as possible. It remainds to be seen how he’s riding following that nasty fall in the Tour, but Moncoutie may be tempted to puit down a marker today. Alejandro Valverde was a tempting choice for the win because he seems to be riding into some form – plus he would clearly like the idea of wearing red on his return to the Vuelta after a three-year absence. For my wildcard, how about Romain Sicard? The French rider from Bayonne is a tidy climber and this is the only stage that ventures into the Basque region so expect a sea of orange on the final Alto de Arrate. That said, Igor Anton and Amets Txurruka are probably more likely options... while Juan Manuel Garate might find some form in his old legs on the Arrate.

A few outsiders to win Lombardia

Let’s face it; there is one name and one name only when you talk about favorites for the hilly classics these years. Philippe Gilbert. Thing is that every rider in the peloton already knows that and it wouldn’t surprise me if we got an outsider on top of the podium in Lombardia to close a spectacular season.

Let’s take a look at a few outsiders who could ruin ‘the perfect’ season for Gilbert.

Rigoberto Uran, Team Sky.
Rigoberto Uran was very close to his big breakthrough in the Tour when he seemed sure to win the White Jersey before going under on the stage to Alpe d’huez. After that he regained his energy with a strong performance in San Sebastian before taking third place in GP de Quebec and latest another third place in Giro dell’Emilia. After Emilia he saved his energy for Lombardia where he will be the sole captain for a very strong Team Sky with Thomas Löfkvist showing great shape.

Uran is strong on the small steep climbs and very fast in a sprint, so don’t be surprised if he takes another top3 spot on Saturday - if not the win…

Pablo Lastras, Movistar.
It’s been a long and very successful season for Pablo Lastras and even though he had a long journey from the heavy smog in Beijing he should still be able to put down a good fight in Lombardia. It’s one of Lastras’ favorite races and last year he took third place after Gilbert & Scarponi showing great motivation for a good result despite the victory being out of reach for him. To help Lastras in the best possible way, Movistar sends strong riders like Rui Costa (who could be an outsider himself), Beñat Intxausti, Angel Madrazo, Ruben Plaza etc.

As said Pablo Lastras has had an amazing season so far and I think - and hope - that he can end it with style in Lombardia.

Daniel Moreno, Katusha.
I know. This is maybe too easy after he won in Piemonte last Thursday, but Dani Moreno is in fact a pretty good pick for an outsider to win Lombardia this year. Like Lastras, Moreno is finally back at this former level, probably even a lot better than ever before, and with Purito and Paolini the Katusha team really have a strong trio. Purito will probably be the leader, but like in Piemonte, Moreno can take advantage of this and try his own luck.

Most of you know that Dani Moreno is one of my favorite riders in the peloton, but no matter what, you all have to agree that if you can win in Piemonte two days before, you can definitely do great things in Lombardia as well!

Prezemyslav Niemiec, Lampre.
Damiano Cunego is without any doubts the leader at Lampre for Lombardia, having practically owned it earlier, but look out for this Polish guy as well. Niemiec is well known for his climber skills and after spending the whole season working his ass for his leaders, especially Michele Scarponi, this could be his big chance for a result for himself. Ending 5th in Emilia and 6th in Piemonte, Niemiec is certainly on the top of his game right now and if the long journey from Beijing shows to be too much for Cunego, he could end up surprising a lot of people with a strong ride in Lombardia!

If you are a gambler and you want to find the best winner bets for Lombardia, I suggest you read my article "Follow the money" at this site.

Hope rising for Movistar

After the most tragic month in the history of the team, the hope and smiles now start to come back at Team Movistar. Juan Mauricio Soler's condition is getting better and better every day and green jersey aspirant José Joaquin Rojas has showed to be just as strong as we all wished for - Well, I know I did!

Rojas was the only one of the fast guys able to follow Thor Hushovd on stage1 and afterwards he followed up with strong performances on stage3 and 4. On top of that both Andrey Amador and Beñat Intxausti (read my pre-tour interview with Beñat here) seem to be recovering well from their injuries caused by the crashes on the first stage. Beñat Intxausti even managed to stick with the favorites on Mur de Bretagne! Hopefully he will be back at 100% for the mountains - keep an eye on him...

The next four stages all look good - on paper - for the new Spanish champion Rojillas, and I really, really, hope he can give Team Movistar that Tour-stage that would mean so much for everyone involved! Ánimo!

Entrevista: Beñat Intxausti (Movistar)

Beñat, lo primero mis condolencias por la pérdida de Xavi. ¿Cómo ha sido tu vuelta a  la competición después de todo lo sucedido?
Gracias. Pues no ha sido nada facil la vuelta a la competición. Fueron unas semanas muy duras, pero gracias a la ayuda que me han dado muchas personas he tirado para adelante.

En tu ultimo año hiciste un gran Criterium Internacional, Vuelta al Pais Vasco y Vuelta a Asturias con Euskaltel-Euskadi, pero tras firmar con Movistar tu Vuelta a España fue un tanto decepcionante. ¿Qué ocurrió? 
La verdad me salio muy mal. Fui con mucha ilusión y ambición, y desde los primeros dias empeze con muy malas sensaciones. El calor extremo que nos hizo me ahogo y ya no levanté cabeza.


Tres equipos diferentes en tus últimos tres años. Qué diferencias encuentras entre ellos y qué hace a Movistar el major de ellos? 
Cada equipo es un mundo con sus cosas, pero por trayectoria, nivel, historia y todo, Movistar Team es el mejor equipo sin duda.

En Dauphiné, no acabaste la última etapa, pero ¿estás preparado para el Tour? 
Sí, estoy preparado. A dauphine fui a ultima hora por todo el tema que me paso y es que además justo unos dias antes de irme cogí un virus que me dejo muy vacío el cuerpo. Dauphine cogí como un entrenamiento de calidad importante.

Sin un gran líder como Valverde, muchas de las expectativas están puestas en tí como uno de los líderes del equipo. ¿Cómo manejas esa presión? y ¿cuáles son tus objetivos para este Tour?
En ese sentido estoy tranquilo, estoy en un equipo que saben llevaste muy bien. Mis objetivos del Tour son acabar, hacer lo mejor posible y estar delante en las etapas de montaña.

¿Has inspeccionado alguna de las etapas del Tour?
No. Conozco algun puerto pero no he reconocido. Solamente la CRI de Grenoble, que es la misma que en Dauphiné.

Tú vienes de competir [en Dauphiné] con algunos de los favoritos para la general del Tour. ¿A quién has visto más fuerte?
Wiggins, Van den Broeck, Evans y Vinokourov.

Beuno, por ultimo, tres preguntas rápidas:

Estará Beñat Intxausti en el top-15 del Tour?
Ojalá!
Ganará Beñat Intxausti una etapa en el Tour?
Lo intentare.
Y cuántas etapas ganará Movistar en el Tour?
3 etapas.