Tour de France: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

 As expected, a breakaway made it on Stage 14 and now the focus is back on the GC riders. This last week of this year’s Tour de France will be extremely tough and it starts out with a killer mountain stage finishing on the legendary Mont Ventoux.

The Route

In the past, the stages on the French National Day were made for the breakaways. This year it’s different. Stage 15 is the longest stage of this year’s Tour and despite finishing on Mont Ventoux, the first 221 km are more of less flat. This means it’s highly unlike a break will make it all way. It will be another hot day in the saddle with temperatures over 30°c and after two hard stages, many will hope for a quiet start of the day.

A tailwind will help a morning breakaway get a good gap but the peloton will make sure it won’t get out of control. The intermediate sprint is located in Malaucène 15 km from the bottom of Mont Ventoux. Since the stage hasn’t been very hard until now, most of the sprinters should be able to fight for points for the Green Jersey.

The Finish

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux.

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux have an average gradient of 7.5 %. The climb starts out quite soft with the first five kilometers not getting over 4-5 %. From here on the road really kicks up with percentages over 10 %. It’s always very windy after getting out of the forest into the moon landscape and this year is no different. The riders will be fighting a headwind and this will make it very difficult to attack and stay away alone. The last right hand turn towards the finishing line is the final struggle of the day and with more than 10 % you need to have something left in the tank if you’re not already alone in front.

The Favorites

The last time the Tour de France had a stage finish on Mont Ventoux, Juanma Garate won in front of Tony Martin after a long breakaway. Starting on Mont Ventpux, the break seemed doomed but since Andy Schleck didn’t want to attack without his brother, Fränk, the GC riders killed the stage and let Garate and Martin stay in front. I don’t think that will happen this year.

Chris Froome already has a good gap to his rivals and they need to take use of every opportunity they get. Froome’s rivals simply have to attack and gain time and everybody wants to win on this mythical climb. Chris Froome himself had his first - ever - rendezvous with Mont Ventoux just two months ago when he went to test his legs on the climb. Riders like Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck already know what to expect of Mont Ventoux and I think they will have a little advantage on Froome. However, it doesn’t help much if they can’t drop him uphill - and I don’t think they can.

The way I see it, Chris Froome is the big favorite for the stage win. He lost a minute to Contador and Mollema in the crosswind and I’m sure he will be eager to take back the lost time time and show who’s the strongest rider in the race. Team Sky are missing Vasil ‘Chloroform’ Kiryienka and Edvald Boasson Hagen but they still have David Lopez, Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte to set the pace and keep Chris Froome in front. It’s not ideal but it has to do. If not Froome, I think the stage winner will be Spanish.

Movistar will most likely make the race hard but they only have Nairo Quintana for the overall classification. The Colombian super climber will probably put in a couple of strong attacks but I think Froome will respond. He knows can’t let Quintana get away. On the other hand, if Alejandro Vavlerde tries an attack I doubt Froome will chase him down instantly. Valverde has good memories from Mont Ventoux. In 2009, he took the yellow jersey in Critérium Dauphiné (which he later won overall) on the stage to Mont Ventoux. Back then, he ‘gave’ the stage win to Sylvester Szmyd but this time Valverde isn’t giving anything away. Tour de France was his big goal this season and he lost it all when a rider broke his wheel on Stage 13. Movistar are out for revenge and with a fast finish - should it come to that - I think Valverde will be tough to beat if Froome is just focusing on keeping the jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with Froome and Valverde in front.

Also, look out for Andy Schleck. He’s getting stronger and stronger every day and he may have some unfinished business with Mont Ventoux from the last time he was here. The headwind won’t favor Andy Schleck but on a good day he could take another big stage win in the Tour.

The Jokers

The French riders will be eager to get something out of this Tour de France, especially on La Fête Nationale (Bastille Day). When the route was revealed Thibaut Pinot was my first pick for the stage win but now I’m not so sure. He seemed to arrive to the Tour in great shape but he had nothing in his legs in the Pyrenees. Lately he’s been getting better but apparently he has some kind of throat problems now. If he’s back at his 2012 level, he will be a dangerous outsider but I doubt it. Pierre Rolland is another strong French candidate and contrary to Pinot, Rolland seems to have great legs. A stage win on Mont Ventoux will help Pierre Rolland significantly in his fight to keep the Polka Dot Jersey and the other GC riders don’t have to worry about him. Rolland is 25:33 minutes behind Froome in the overall classification and he only focuses on stage wins and the KOM competition.

I have high hopes for Daniel Martin too. The strong Irishman has already won a big mountain stage in this year’s Tour de France and he’s been “saving bullets” for Mont Ventoux the last couple of days. Martin is 11^th overall so he won’t be giving a card blanche. Still, he won’t be the first rider Froome, Contador and Mollema will start chasing down either. Daniel Martin says he’s a big fan of the cycling history and naturally winning on a famous climb like Mont Ventoux would be amazing. He seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he has a strong kick too. I don’t know if Daniel Martin still fits the “joker” category but if so, he’s my joker for the stage win.

So. To sum it up: Chris Froome is the strongest rider uphill but may not have the best team. Furthermore, his primary target is to keep the yellow jersey. Alejandro Valverde is eager to take revenge and his Movistar team is very strong. Valverde is now out of the GC and the other favorites won’t chase him down right away. Not even Belkin…

Favorites: Chris Froome & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Pierre Rolland & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 15:

Just to get you into the right mood, take a look at the Mont Ventoux stage from 2000 when Marco Pantani won after an amazing comeback and series of furious attacks in the end:

Tour de France: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

After one week of intense riding, it’s now time for the big mountains as the peloton enters the Pyrenees. The general classification will be changed significantly and we will see which riders have the legs to win this Tour de France and who don’t.

The Route

Starting in Castres the riders head south towards the Pyrenees. The first 140 km are more or less flat and a morning breakaway will have plenty of time to get a big gap. This is the first big mountain stage of the Tour and there are a lot more KOM points up for grabs than we’ve seen in the past week. It’s a good opportunity for riders targeting the Polka Dot Jersey but it won’t be easy to make it all the way. I think Biel Kadri will attack in order to gain more points but I doubt he will repeat teammate Christophe Riblon's win from 2010.

After a 155.5 km the ascent of the first HC climb of this year’s Tour de France, Col de Pailhères begins. The 15.3 km towards the top have an average gradient of 8 % and steep parts of over 10 % near the top. There are still 30 km to the finishing line from the top of Col de Pailhères but if you get dropped here, your stage is pretty much over already.

The GC riders will have to be ready right from the beginning of Col de Pailhères and I would expect Team Sky to try setting their usually high pace up the climb.

The Finish

The final climb of the day, Ax 3 Domaines, starts immediately after the 20 km long descent from Col de Pailhères. There are 9.3 km to go from the bottom of Ax 3 Domaines but it climb itself is only 7.8 km long. It has an average gradient of 8.2 % and the first 5 km are very steep. It evens out a bit with 2 km to the top and then it kicks up again with 8 % the last km.

In 2010, when Stage 14 of the Tour de France finished on Ax 3 Domaines, Chrisophe Riblon make it all way after a long breakaway. Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck were practicing their stop-n-go tactic and the peloton didn’t seem interested in fighting for the stage win. I think that will change this time.

The Favorites

This being the first uphill finish, there is a big psychological value of getting an advantage over your opponents, no matter how small it is. Froome has six seconds on Contador in the general classification but even though the climb is steep, I don’t think the gap between the two will change much. The way I see it, Froome and Contador are more or less on the same level and I doubt one will be able to drop the other. Both know it’s vital not to lose anything time, not even a second, and they will probably be more focused on each other than on their rivals. Still, it’s not going to be like Contador and Schleck the last time on Ax 3 Domaines, that’s for sure.

I think the fight for the stage win will be between Froome and Contador. That being said, don’t rule out Purito and Valverde just yet. Both are very fast and with 1.5 km of flat towards the finishing line, it’s not unlikely this could end in a sprint.

I’m pretty sure Froome will put in a couple of strong attacks to drop his rivals and I wouldn’t be surprised if Contador is the only rider able to follow him. Valverde, Purito, Evans etc. won’t be far off but I doubt they will be able to respond to Froome’s or Contador’s strong accelerations. Should it end like that, with Froome and Contador arriving together, I think Froome will take the win. He outsprinted Contador - and Purito - in a flat finish in Tour of Oman earlier this year and he shouldn’t have problems beating Contador in a sprint this time either.

The Jokers

I think Team Sky, Saxo-Tinkoff and probably Movistar too will set such a high pace on Col de Pailhères that it kills a breakaway’s chances of succeeding. Therefore, I rather focus on strong climbers, already behind in the GC, for the joker spot. I have two strong outsiders for this stage and they both ride for Euskaltel. The Tour enters Basque territory in the Pyrenees and the roads will be colored orange. Mikel Nieve and Igor Antón are both 1:29 minutes down in the GC and they are only here for stage wins. On paper, this Tour de France is great for climbers like Nieve and Antón but for Euskaltel a stage win is much more important than finishing 10^th overall. Both riders have won stages in Giro d’Italia and Vuelta España in the past and they are now aiming to enter the club of stage winners in all three Grand Tours. Samuel Sanchez took third place on Ax 3 Domaines in 2010 and with a little luck; Euskaltel can improve that result Saturday afternoon.

Favorite: Chris Froome

Jokers: Mikel Nieve & Igor Antón

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 8:

Giro Rosa: Stage 6 Results & Comments

Mara Abbott on her way to take her second stage win in a row. This time in the Pink Jersey. Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Mara Abbott took her second stage win in a row and she’s now leading the overall classification with 2:40 min to Tatiana Guderzo. Giro Rosa entered the hometown of Elisa Longo Borghini and the injured Italian star rider was cheering for her colleagues from a wheelchair in front of her home in Ornavasso.

Italian youngster Francesca Cauz finished third on the stage and keeps her White Jersey as she is now fourth overall. Winner of the Giro in 2009, Claduia Hausler is third overall after she finished second on the stage. “It’s very hard to beat Abbott on a finish like today so I’m happy with my second place”, she tells.

Saturday’s stage is one for the sprinters. Still, after two difficult days in the mountains many riders will be tired and with a little luck, a break could make it.

Stage 6 results:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

2. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 24"

3. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 34"

4. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 41"

5. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'03"

6. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 1'32"

7. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team) a 1'39"

8. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 1'46"

9. Moolman Ashleigh (Lotto Belisol Ladies) a 1'52"

10. Vysotska Yegvenia (Sc Michela Fanini Rox) a 1'53"

Overall Classification:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa) in 17h14'34"

2. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 2'40"

3. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 2'55"

4. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 3'10"

5. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 4'50"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

Youth: Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By: Alberto Celani 

Giro Rosa: Stage 5 Results & Comments

Mara Abbott won the Queen Stage of Giro Rosa after a strong solo attack. Race leader Vos lost more than 5 minutes.
Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Stage 5 was the Queen Stage of this year's Giro Rosa and made a huge upset in general classification as Marianne Vos lost more than five minutes. Vos had been dominating the race until in the first four stages but now she only 7^th overall, 3:15 min after the new leader Mara Abbott.

Abbot from Boulder, Colorado won the race in 2010 and today she took an amazing stage win on the American Independence Day. “I am more than happy. I didn’t have any tactics, I just attacked when the road started to get steeper”, Abbott said after the stage.  

Marianne Vos knew it wouldn’t be easy for her today but she didn’t expect to lose the jersey. “I wanted to keep the jersey but the race is not over yet”, she explains.

New rider in the White Jersey is Francesca Cauz. The young Italian finished second on stage and now hopes to keep the jersey all the way. “I knew I was feeling good today and I have to thank my team, my sport directors and the sponsors”.

Second in the overall classification is Tatiana Guderzo who finished fourth on the stage. She’s now aiming at the time trial on the final day: “Today I wasted too much energy but I know the time trial suits me. I will take it day by day and tomorrow is already another hard day”.

Tomorrow Giro Rosa take place in the Verbano Cusio Ossola area, Elisa Longo Borghini's homeland. The Italian rider crashed at the national championship and had to forfeit for the Giro.We think her friends and teammates will prepare something special for her, like the Americans did today.

Stage 5 results:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

2. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 1'44"

3. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'49"

4. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'51"

5. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 2'38"

6. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) 2'49"

7. Vysotska Yevgenia (Michela Fanini Rox) a 3'02"

8. Alena Amialiusik (BePink) a 3'45"

9. Moolman Ashleigh (Lotto Belisol Ladies) 3'51"

10. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 3'51"

Overall Classification:

1. Abbott Mara (Usa)

2. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'27"

3. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'34"

4. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 2'27"

5. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 2'30"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Abbott Mara (Usa)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Cromwell Tiffany (Orica Ais)

Youth: Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé

Giro Rosa: Stage 4 Results & Comments

Marianna Vos takes her second stage win in a row after soloing away in the final. Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Nothing out of the ordinary in Giro Rosa. Marianne Vos won her second stage in a row and extended her lead in the overall classification.  She made the race hard herself and in the end she soloed after from a small breakaway. Vos doesn’t leave anything to other riders as she proves to be able to win any stage in this year’s Giro Rosa. She says: “After two second places and two victories I can’t ask for me. Winning is never easy and there is still many uphill kilometers before we get to Cremona on Sunday”.

Tomorrow is the Queen Stage of this year’s Giro Rosa. The 73.3 km to Monte Beigua end with a steep climb towards the finishing line. In our Overall Preview of the race, Walter Zini picked Evelyn Stevens as the favorite for the stage and Stevens has high ambitions. “I like tomorrow’s stage profile a lot. My team is strong and we aim to win. Still, it’s never easy with Vos in the race”.

South African Ashleigh Moolman took third place on Stage 4. A result that really boosted her moral: “I love these uphill finishes and my podium spot today gives me confidence for the upcoming stages”, Moolman explains.

Stage 4 results:

1. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

2. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 3"

3. Moolman Ashleigh (Lotto Belisol Ladies) a 3"

4. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 3"

5. Hausler Claudia (Team Tibco To The Top) a 7"

6. Van der Breggen Anna (Nazionale Olanda) a 9"

7. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 18"

8. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 20"

9. Cromwell Tiffany (Orica Ais) a 20"

10. Abbot Mara (Nazionale Usa) a 22"

Overall Classification:

1. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

2. Hausler Claudia (Team Tibco To The Top) a 1'31"

3. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'33"

4. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'39"

5. Ratto Rossella (Hitec Products Uck) A 1'41"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

Youth: Van der Breggen Anna (Nazionale Olanda)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé

Tour de Suisse: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

The GC contenders had an easy day on Stage 6 when the peloton decided to let Kolobnev, Grabsch, Hayman and Rast stay away. What could have been a hectic final turned out to be quiet day at the office but now it’s time to fight for the overall classification.

Stage 7 is 208 km long and includes four categorized climbs. The first 120 are rather flat with just a one category 3 climb to overcome but after 130 km the road really starts to kick up. The 6.2 km towards the top of this category 1 climb have an average gradient of 7 % and we can expect BMC and Saxo-Tinkoff to set a high pace. Mathias Frank looks very strong uphill and so does Roman Kreuziger. Personally, I see Kreuziger as the strongest rider in the race right now. Still it’s worth mentioning that Kreuziger is suffering a bit from his crash on stage 3. He hit his shoulder and knee and especially the shoulder has been bothering a bit. If he’s not feeling good, the other teams may try to distance him already on this climb.

The next climb starts after 155 km. This category 4 climb isn’t very steep and it shouldn’t really bring any of the GC riders in difficulty. However, it is important for the favorites to stay near the front since the final climb of the day starts right after the descent. The first part of the climb has an average gradient of just 4 % but it’s gets steeper after the second intermediate sprint. The final 14.3 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 %. The first 3.5 km are the steepest with an average of 10% and if Tejay van Garderen has a good day, he could really rip the race apart here for Mathias Frank.

There are 9.3 km to go from the top of the last climb but the descent isn't very technical. Only the last part with seven hairpin corners from 3 km to 2 km to go. The final 700 meters are flat but two 90° turns will make the run in very difficult. If a small group arrives together, it’s important to be first or second coming out of the last corner with just 300 meters to go.

Peter Sagan was outstanding on the last mountain stage but I doubt he will repeat that effort. The 3.5 km of 10 % on the final climb will most likely split up the peloton significantly and I wouldn’t be surprised if only 10 riders were left after this steep part. I think Tejay Van Garderen will be leading the group at this point and it will be very difficult to break away. 

One of the few riders who can do it is Michele Scarponi. The Italian veteran crashed out of the general classification on Stage 3 and he is now eager to take a win and forget about all his bad luck. There aren’t any bonus seconds on the line in this year’s Tour de Suisse so the other GC contenders won’t have to worry if Scarponi manages to get away on the final climb. Lampre also have Diego Ulissi who - despite a crash on Stage 6 - is in good shape right now. I think they will try something with him and Scarponi on this stage.

I also expect Andy Schleck to make a move. He’s slowly getting into shape and his confidence is coming back too. During Stage 5, he even thought about doing the final uphill sprint for a moment. He attacked from afar in Criterium International and in Tour of California and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to get away already on the category 1 climb starting with 75 km to go. It’s hard to say if Andy Schleck is strong enough to enough to keep a gap on the final climb but since he’s not threat overall, the GC contenders don’t have to chase him down.

As stated, I think this stage is too hard for Peter Sagan to stay in front. Still, if he’s not more than 30-45 seconds after the favorites on the top of the last climb, he could very well catch up on the descent. It all depends on the race situation. If a breakaway seems sure to the take win, Sagan don’t need to waste energy staying up front. However if he’s in play for the stage win, he will probably do whatever he can to win again. Sagan could also be a breakaway candidate…

Bauke Mollema turned out to be the strongest riders uphill on the first mountain stage. It will be interesting to see if he attacks again on this stage in order to gain a little time before the last ITT. On paper, Rui Costa is the best time trialist of the first five in the GC but don’t underestimate Mollema against the clock. Right now Mollema is 1:08 min after Mathias Frank and I think he needs to cut that in half if he wants to win overall. If Mollema is within 40 seconds of the yellow jersey (and that not being Rui Costa) before the final time trial, I think he can go for the win. That means he needs to attack and hopefully we will get another interesting stage finish Friday afternoon.

Before I end this preview, I would like to point out Marcel Wyss. IAM Cycling had to say goodbye to Heinrich Haussler after he crashed on Stage 6 and they are soon running out of stages to win in their home race. Marcel Wyss is 36^th overall, almost nine minutes after Mathias Frank. The other day he attacked to take a few KOM points “just in case”, as he said. This stage is very important for the KOM jersey and I expect Wyss to take part in the morning breakaway. It won’t be easy to keep the peloton at bay all day long but the lack of bonus seconds means the favorites don’t need to go for the stage win.

Favorites: Michele Scarponi & Bauke Mollema

Jokers: Andy Schleck & Marcel Wyss 

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse had a similar stage finish three years ago. Back then Robert Gesink won. In case you forgot, here is the video of stage: