World Championship - Road Race Preview & Favorites

It’s finally time. This Sunday, the elite men’s road race is on and we are in for quite a show. It’ the most open World Championship in a while and with a rainy weather forecast; anything can happen!

In total, the race is 272.2 km long. The day starts in Lucca and from here; the riders have 100 km to overcome before they reach Florence. There are two climbs on this first part; Montecarlo (3.75 km / 3.5 %) and San Baronto (3.9 / 7.1 %). These two climbs won’t make for a selection but especially San Baronto will serve as an appetizer of what waits the riders later on.

When reaching Florence the riders starts on 10 laps of 16.57 km. The first two kilometers are flat but then the road kicks up. The Fiesole climb is 4.37 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The gradients barely drop below 7 % the last 1500 meters and this is where we find the steep parts of over 10 %. There are 10 km to the line from the top of Fiesole. The descent starts out very technical but then gets easier with nice and soft turns. However, there is a very steep part and then a difficult 90° left turn with about 8.7 km to go. If the rains, riders chasing to get back have to pay close attention to this corner in order not to see their chances disappear in a crash.

The following 2 km are fast very fast and after a sharp right hand turn, it’s time to climb again. The 600 meters on Via Salviati have an average gradient of 10 % and include a part of 200 meters with over 16 % towards the top. There are only 5 km to go from the top of Via Salviati and as the final part is very fast, it won’t be easy to catch a small group of riders if they get a gap over the top. With a less than 3 km to the line, the riders turn left and the following 150-200 meters are uphill with parts of 10 %. This may be the last place to attack if you want to solo away. The road kicks up a little again as the rider cross the railroad and after a 180° corner, the final 1500 meters are flat and straight out towards the line.

Everybody seems to have a different opinion on the best way to prepare for this World Championship and which riders it favors. It’s hard to keep track but here is some of the statements:

•           You need to ride Vuelta España.
•           This is a route for the climbers.
•           You need to be fast.
•           You need to be explosive on the climbs.
•           Don’t count on the Vuelta riders, the last week was too hard.
•           You need to be able to win on this kind of distance.

Confused? I understand. It may not look like there is a rider who can tick off every single criteria. However, there is one. More about him a little later.

First, let’s look at the teams with the most responsibility this Sunday. Spain has the strongest team (9 riders) with Contador, Purito and Valverde but home favorites Italy (9) isn’t far behind with the likes of Scarponi, Ulissi and Nibali. The Netherlands (Gesink, Mollema, Slagter), Switzerland (Cancellara, Albasini) and Colombia (Quintana, Uran, Henao, Betancur) also have nine riders at the start. So does France but I would be surprised to see them start working in the peloton. The French riders have to be aggressive in the attacks and with Pinot, Barguil and Voeckler they have enough firepower to put in a couple of strong attacks on the final laps.

Peter Sagan (Slovakia) has five teammates to help him, among these are the Velits brothers, Peter and Martin, plus Sagan’s own brother Juraj. Sagan would like this race to be as easy as possible and hope for a big group together on the final lap. Therefore I doubt Slovakia will put much effort into chasing the breaks early on. Last year’s winner, Philippe Gilbert and Belgium have seven riders at the start this time and compared to last year, they will be more aggressive. Gilbert needs a hard race with a big selection and if so, he will probably have to attack on Via Salviati on the last lap and get away with a couple of riders. This is his best chance of winning in Florence.

Profile of the circuit in Florence. 10 laps of 16.57 km.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara is the number one favorite. The Swiss Time Machine pays 3 to 1. It’s nothing new that Cancellara has a red circle around the World Championship but usually it’s focused around the time trial. This year, Fabian Cancellara has put everything into becoming World Champion in the road race instead. He has lost some kilos and in the Vuelta España, he showed to be in great shape on the climbs. As a warm-up for the road race, Cancellara has done both the team time trial (last Sunday) and the individual time trial (last Wednesday). Radioshack finished 4^th in the TTT while Cancellara took the bronze medal in the ITT, only two seconds form second place. There is no doubt that Fabian Cancellara is in great shape right now but is he strong enough to keep stay with the punchy climbers on Via Salviati? Remember, in total this race has more than 60 km of climbing. It’s not “just” a usually tough one day race, it’s a regular mountain stage. If Cancellara has to fight his way back after both Fiesole and Via Salviati, how much energy will he has left for the expected late attack in the final On the other hand, the U23 winner Matej Mohoric said he didn’t think the course was that hard and makes Cancellara one of the two big favorites.

The other top favorite is Peter Sagan. Sagan usually don’t have any problems on these kind of climbs and to make sure he doesn’t get dropped, he went to train hard in the mountains earlier this season. It quickly paid off and in Tour de Suisse, he actually won the mountain stage with the steepest climb in the race. Peter Sagan does well in the short time trials, he can sprint and he can solo away to win as well. It’s difficult to find any flaws but if there is one, it may be the distance. Sagan is yet to win a race over 250 km and even though he has come close a couple of times, it’s still one thing missing on his impressive palmares.

The Spanish duo Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez makes it hard to imagine a final podium without a Spanish rider. Valverde is a true specialist in these kind of one-day races and Purito too knows how prepare for a single day and then deliver. Both have been on the podium in the past but neither has ever won. This year both Valverde and Purito aimed at the Tour de France this summer. Afterwards they started out the Vuelta with the intention of getting ready for this Sunday. They finished 3^rd and 4^th overall in the Vuelta and seem very strong at the moment. Especially, Purito finished the Vuelta strong and I think he’s Spain’s best card to play. Few - if any - can match Purito’s kick on the steep gradients and I would imagine he would try to split the group on Via Salviati the last time. We saw in the U23 race that Via Salviati creates a lot more damage than Fiesole and the steep gradients really suits Purito who’s also good on the descent. Furthermore, Purito showed in Giro di Lombardia last year, that he can win in the rain as well. Of course, if it ends in a sprint of 10+ riders, Alejandro Valverde is the best option for Spain and if Peter Sagan isn’t in the group, Valverde shouldn’t have problems outsprinting the rest.

The last one of the top favorites is Vincenzo Nibali. He’s riding on home soil in Italy and naturally the expectations are high. Italy hasn’t be able to deliver since 2008 when the finished 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th in Varese. Now the World Championship is back in Italy and after Nibali won the Giro d’Italia and finished second overall in the Vuelta, everybody expect another top performance from the shark. To help Nibali take the rainbow jersey, Italy sends strong riders like Michele Scarponi, Rinaldo Nocentini, Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Diego Ulissi. Italy’s big problem in the past has been too many captains, this time it’s different. Pozzato and Scarponi are both in great shape but they have to leave their big egos at home. Ulissi is double junior world champion and I have no doubts he’ll win the elite’s race one day as well. Diego Ulissi is strong on the climbs and fast on the line. However, he’s not very good on the descents especially not if the roads are wet. Vincenzo Nibali needs to attack on Fiesole and make an early selection, then he probably has to dig deep again on Via Salviati and then attack on the descent as he has done in the past. Nibali knows his only chance is to solo away and I’m sure he won’t think twice if he sees an opening in the final.

As I wrote earlier, there actually is one rider fitting all the listed statement. This rider is Dan Martin. He started the Vuelta, he didn’t ride the last week of the race, he’s a climber, he’s explosive, he’s fast on the line and he has proven to be able to win on the long distance (LBL this year). After crashing out of the Vuelta, Dan Martin took part in Tour of Britain as his last preparation for the World Championship. He raced very aggressively and showed on the climbs that he is still going very strong. So far, 2013 has already been a great season for Dan Martin after winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege and stage 9 of the Tour de France. He has been targeting the Rainbow Jersey for a while and he has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking from afar if necessary. I think the most likely scenario for this race, is a small group of about five riders arriving at the finishing together. If Dan Martin is in this group, he will be very difficult to beat.

Earlier this year, Colombia seemed to have one of the most powerful teams for this race. However, both Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur didn’t really deliver in the Vuelta and it’s doubtful they will be able to perform - as previously expected - this Sunday. Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran are still two very strong outsiders but it won’t be easy for the Colombians to continue their dominance this season. Nairo Quintana’s father is hoping to visit the Pope when the race is over and naturally, it would be amazing for the humble climber to join his parents with the Pope carrying the Rainbow Jersey. I don’t think it will be happen though.

Map of the circuit in Florence.

Before this preview gets too long to read, let’s have a look at some of the jokers for the win. My personal joker is Rui Costa. Like Dan Martin, Rui Costa has already had a great season with the overall win in Tour de Suisse and two impressive stage wins in Tour de France. The World Championship has been a big goal for Rui Costa all season and the course really suits him. Portugal only has three riders in the race but both Andre Cardoso and Tiago Machado are dedicated to help Rui Costa win the Rainbow Jersey.

Another strong outsider is Chris Froome. Not since Greg Lemond in 1989 has a Tour de France winner went on to become World Champion. This year Froome has a unique chance of doing so but he knows he requires a hard race with a big selection. In the beginning of August, Chris Froome went to check out the course and train on the roads. He did the Via Salviati climb 10 times and he knows what to expect. After finishing the Tour, Froome immediately started talking about the World Championship and after training hard in North America the last weeks, he now seems ready. Like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome most likely has to solo away in order to win this race but don’t forget he actually outsprinted both Contador and Purito in Tour of Oman earlier this year.

For other jokers look to in-shape Robert Gesink and Thomas Voeckler, one-day specialist Alexandr Kolobnev and strong all-rounder Edvald Boasson Hagen. For the super-super jokers I’ll like to mention season revelation Tanel Kangert, World Champion specialist Matti Breschel and youngster Tom-Jelte Slagter who has a good kick on the hills and is fast on the line.

For live coverage of the race go to steephill.tv

World Championship - Time Trial Preview & Favorites

Tony Martin got the best possible start to this year’s World Championship when he and Omega Pharma Quickstep won the opening team time trial last Sunday. Now it’s time for the individual time trial and just like the last two years, the strong German is the top favorite.

Except for a slightly different finish, the course is the same as for the team time trial. It’s a power course for the big engines and basically it’s all about speed. The small hill in the beginning won’t matter much as the following 50 km are flat. Only the final few kilometers inside of Florence are technical but the riders doing the team time trial already know how to take the corners without losing time.

Half a year ago, I had no doubts Tony Martin would win this race and take his third consecutive World Champion title. However, I must admit Bradley Wiggins has been extremely strong recently. Both Martin and Wiggins are best on a course like this one and I think it will be a close fight. Still, I’ll stick with Tony Martin as my number one favorite. He’s been training on the course, he did the team time trial and he knows how to take the tricky corners in Florence. According to the German, he’s in better shape than last year and he feels more prepared. He got a massive motivation boost when OPQS won the team time trial and he’s now very confident.

While Tony Martin has had the same approach towards the time trials within the last handful of years, Bradley Wiggins' focus has changed completely. He went from being a time trial specialist to winning the Tour de France. In this process, Wiggins lost a lot of weight and he had to comprise his time trial training. After his failed attempt to win the Giro d’Italia this year, Wiggins now seems to have given up on winning another Grand Tour. He’s now 7-8 kg heavier than when he won the Tour and since June, he’s only been focusing on his time trial. In his comeback race after the Giro, Bradley Wiggins won the 37 km time trial in Tour of Poland when he distanced Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney with a minute.  Last week he won the short time trial in Tour of Britain without any problems and according to Wiggins, he too feels a lot better than last year. In 2012, Wiggins won the Olympic time trial just 10 days after winning the Tour de France. This time the World Champion time trial comes just three days after Tour of Britain. It will be very interesting to see if it’s enough time for Wiggins to switch focus and beat Tony Martin. Personally, I doubt it.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara will take the bronze medal this Wednesday. The way I see it, Cancellara is a strong candidate but riders like Taylor Phinney and Adrian Malori have a solid chance of making podium as well. As stated in my preview for the team time trial, Fabian Cancellara’s main focus in on the road race on Sunday. No other top favorites are doing all three races and if Cancellara wants to win on Sunday, it may not be the best idea to test his limits on a course like this and take risks in the tricky corners. Cancellara has worked hard to get better on the climbs, we saw that in Vuelta España, and it means he has lost some speed on the long flat parts. He’s still among the very best in the world but against Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, I honestly can’t see him win.

Last year Taylor Phinney did the time trial of his life when he finished second to Tony Martin. Phinney was only six seconds from beating Tony Martin and becoming World Champion and now he’s out for revenge. He lives near the course and knows it like the back of his hand. Every time Phinney is out training on his time trial bike, he’s riding on part of the course and I doubt any of the riders starting tomorrow knows it better than he does. BMC had big ambitions for the team time trial but failed to live up their own expectations. They finished fourth and Taylor Phinney didn’t hide his disappointment. Wednesday the young American has another chance to show his potential and personally, I have Phinney down for a spot on the final podium.

The Italians haven’t had much to cheer for in the time trials for a while. Marco Pinotti was on his way to medal last year but then crashed in the final. Right now Adriano Malori is the Italians best hope and on a good day, he could surprise and make podium. Malori is getting better and better every year and this season, he has been very close to Tony Martin a couple of times. In Tirreno-Adriatico, Malori finished second in the final time trial, just six seconds after Martin. In time trial in Tour de Romandie, Malori finished second again this time 16 seconds after Tony Martin. It’s worth noticing that in this time trial Malori put in 18 seconds on the overall winner Chris Froome. The time trial in Florence is obviously a big goal for Adriano Malori and he’s been working hard in order to deliver a top performance this Wednesday. He knows the competition is fierce but if some of the other candidates strike out, Malori will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

The five mentioned riders are also the five riders starting last. For the complete starting order click here.

Among the super jokers for a medal we'll find riders like the Vacansoleil-DCM duo Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra. In the Tour de France this year, De Gendt started right before Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to not to change that fact. Fighting to keep Tony Martin behind him, Thomas De Gendt put in such a strong performance that he finished third on the stage. This time, his teammate Lieuwe Westra is starting right after De Gendt. Westra isn't on the same level as Tony Martin, but I still expect him to do Top10 this Wednesday. In fact, Lieuwe Westra says that being the first to catch Thomas De Gendt in a time trial is an extra motivation for him. It will be interesting to see how the two - soon to be - former teammates will perform against each other.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 21 Preview & Favorites

Chris Horner and Vincenzo Nibali gave us an amazing finish to this year’s Vuelta. Nibali attacked several times within the last 6 km but in the end, Horner went away and Nibali couldn’t respond. Valverde had problems in the beginning but he too recovered and secured his third place overall. Kenny Elissonde took a beautiful stage win after a long break and gave France their fourth stage win this race. That’s three more than they won in the Tour. Anyway, let’s take a look at the final stage.

The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s edition. Latest, Bauke Mollema took them by surprise when he attacked on the final kilometer of stage 17. However, I think it’s safe to say that this stage will end in a bunch sprint.

Despite a very tough course, we still have most of the starting sprinters left in the race. One of the most consistent ones is Max Richeze. The Argentinian has four Top3 places so far but he is still missing a stage win - so is his team Lampre and they will be very eager to finish this race in style. A tough final week has often seen an outsider winning in Madrid and that could very well be case again this time. The way I see it, Richeze and Edvald Bosson Hagen are the two big favorites. The Norwegian was clearly the strongest in the sprint when Mollema won but the finish in Madrid is not a typical Boasson Hagen sprint. A short and flat stage with a criterium finish is better suited for some of the track riders like Leigh Howard and Michael Mørkøv. However, I think it will be very difficult to beat Edvald Boasson Hagen in Madrid.

Map of the final laps in Madrid. Click for larger view.

GreenEdge has only four riders left but two of those, Howard and Michael Matthews, are very good candidates for the win. Matthews started out this race and the fastest man in the sprints and if he has been able to keep his speed during the last hard week, his chances are as good as Richeze's and Boasson Hagen's.

Team Argos-Shimano came to the Vuelta with a young team ready to fight in the bunch sprints. Their Vuelta has already been a success but not because of the sprints. This is not their usually sprint team and that shows. However, they are still eight riders left and in Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg they have two strong outsiders. Arndt is the youngest rider in the race. Barguil and Kenny Elissonde are the second and third youngest and they have both won a stage. It won’t be easy for Nikias Arndt to win as well but on a good day, he may be able to pull it off.

Tyler Farrar won the final stage of the Vuelta in 2010 when he outsprinted Mark Cavendish. A lot of things have happened since then and now Farrar is not even close to beat the best sprinters in the world. He is very consistent but it almost never gets better than 3^rd or 4^th place. Farrar is fast on the final meters and if only he could position himself better, he should be able to win. I doubt the American will take another win in Madrid but in this company - no offense to Richeze and EBH - Farrar simply has to be able to win. If not, he may as well just kiss his days as “top sprinter” goodbye.

Before the Vuelta started, Gianni Meerman seemed to be good for at least a couple of stage wins. However, the strong Belgian hasn’t won a single stage yet. This kind of sprint doesn’t really suit Meersman but this has been a tough Vuelta and it’s all about who has something extra left in the tank. Meersman has been doing well in the mountains but I was surprised not to see him in front group on stage 17. I wouldn’t count off Gianni Meersman but personally I doubt he will win this stage.

If you are looking for other good jokers for the stage win in Madrid look to riders like; Francesco Lasca, Robert Wagner, Adrien Petit, Tosh Van der Sande and Zakkari Dempster.

It’s difficult to pick a winner for this stage but if I had to pick one it would be Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For the last stage of this year's Vuelta, Laura picks Max Richeze to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

I’ve pumping up Vasil Kiryienka’s chances of making it all the way from a breakaway the last couple of days and Thursday afternoon, he finally did. Kiryienka went solo with 45 km to go and managed to keep everybody behind him. Chris Horner showed he is still the strongest uphill when he climbed Peña Cabarga about 40 seconds faster than Juanjo Cobo did in 2011. Cobo won the Vuelta that year and right now, it seems like Horner will win this year’s edition.

Stage 19 is another one for a breakaway. The GC riders are focusing on Angliru and I doubt they want to use up their teams already. That being said, if Valverde or Purito wants to win a stage in this year’s Vuelta, this is probably their last chance. Astana and Vincenzo Nibali will be happy to see a breakaway take all the bonus seconds again this time. Nibali can’t follow Chris Horner on the steep gradients and even though the final climb isn’t very steep this time, I can’t see Nibali gain time on Horner in Oviedo.

The first 100 km of stage 19 take place next to the sea. The wind is coming from north-northeast and if it’s strong again, we might see a team like Saxo-Tinkoff trying to split up the peloton again. However, they are still about 80 km to go - and six climbs - so I doubt it will happen. However, DS Fabrizio Guidi says the team is looking to climb the GC and that means taking time on Purito and Valverde.

Usually the big favorites want to go for the stage win on the mythical Angliru climb and that means this is the last day for a breakaway to make it. Therefore, we can expect another very fast with half of peloton trying to get away. For once Movistar missed the breakaway on stage 18 and I’m sure they will be eager to get at least one rider up front this time. It’s true the final climb suits Alejandro Valverde very well but I doubt Movistar can control the race all by themselves. They tried on stage 18 and look what happened.

The final 5 km of stage 19 on Alto de Naranco.

The final 40 km of stage 19 are the hardest. There are three categorized climbs on the menu but actually, the intermediate sprint is also placed on top of a hill with an average of nearly 5 %. Typical for the Vuelta. The penultimate climb of the day, Alto de la Manzaneda, is the steepest one. It’s only 3.6 km long but has an average gradient of 6.2 %.

After entering Oviedo the final 5.7 km are uphill towards the finishing line. Alto del Naranco has average gradient of just 4.2 % but there are a steep kilometer of nearly 10 % with 3 km to go. The final two kilometers have an average gradient of 6.5 % and take place in headwind. The last 300 meters are straight out with a tailwind and should a couple of riders arrive together, it may be an idea to try an early sprint out of the final corner.

If the peloton catches the breakaway, Alejando Valverde is the big favorite but the chances of that aren’t very good. I think the GC riders will be saving a little energy for Angliru and that means we - once again - should look to riders down out of the general classification.

First rider on my list is Bauke Mollema. He didn’t have the legs to go for the GC after the Tour but he stayed in the race aiming for a stage win. That win came on stage 17 when he took the peloton by surprise with a late attack. Mollema is targeting the World Championships in Florence later this month and he’s coming out of this Vuelta in great shape. The final climb suits Mollema perfectly and unlike many other, the Belkin captain doesn’t need to solo away in order to win. Bauke Mollema is very fast on the line and it’s probably only Valverde and Dani Moreno could can outsprint him on a finish like this one.

Another strong rider right now is Diego Ulissi. I’ve been naming him a couple of times already as a good candidate for an early breakaway but so far, Ulissi hasn’t been able to make it. However, the young Italian is climbing very well these days and this stage really suits him. He tried a late attack the other day but never really got away. This is Diego Ulissi’s last chance for a stage win and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to make that final breakaway. Lampre also has Michele Scarponi for a stage like this one together; Ulissi and Scarponi are a very dangerous duo for stage 19.

Team NetApp Endura has been doing extremely well so far in this Vuelta. Leo König is still sitting 8^th in the overall classification and Bartosz Huzarski was close to take the team’s second stage win the last time Warren Barguil won. König’s focus will be on Angliru but I think Huzarski has this stage marked in his road book. The strong Pole knows how to get into the right breakaways and he seems to be climbing very well right now. Furthermore, Huzarski is actually fast in an uphill sprint too. Don’t forget he took second place after Purito on stage 10 in the Giro last year.

For other good candidates looks to riders like; Warren Barguil, Rigoberto Uran, José Herrada, Ivan Santaromita, Rafa Valls, Andre Cardoso, Oliver Zaugg and the strong Euskaltel trio Igor Antón, Mikel Nieve and Mikel Landa. Euskaltel is aiming big at the team classification and we expect at least one orange rider in the breakaway.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a stage for the sprinters - or so it seems. In fact, the final 10 km are very demanding with a steep hill and a tricky descent. More on the later.

The day starts in Calahorra and finish in Burgos after 189 km in the saddle. Without being completely flat, this isn’t a very hilly stage either. The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s Vuelta and their teams will be eager to control the race. The first 100 km take place in head- and crosswind and we shouldn’t see a breakaway get too much of a gap.  After 109.8 km it’s time for the first categorized climb of the day, Alto de Pradilla. It’s a category 3 climb and the 6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.4 %.

The next climb, Alto de Valmala, starts after 133.5 km and from its top there are 50 km to the finishing line. The last intermediate sprint comes with 36 km to go and from here, the riders will be able to enjoy a strong tailwind towards Burgos. On paper, the final 10 km don’t look very tough but if you haven’t done your homework, you will be in for a big surprise!

With about 10 km to go, the riders turn right - away from the big road - up the little Calle Eras de San Francisco. The following 1.2 km are uphill and especially the first part is steep. While the riders won’t be able to admire it, the TV-viewers will have a beautiful view over Burgos on the way towards the top of the hill. From here, it’s downhill for about 450 meter before the road kicks up again for 200 meters. The following 800 meters downhill are very technical and on narrow roads. The peloton will be stretch out significantly on this part, and it’s doubtful all the sprinters will make it back to the front in time.

The final 5 km are straight out with a few up and down parts. There is now cross- and headwind towards the line and it won’t be easy for a lonely rider to keep the peloton behind him. However, if the sprinters aren’t back in the peloton, it may be very difficult organizing the chase.

The final 14 km of stage 17. Many things to pay attention to!
Click for larger view.

We haven’t seen a regular mass sprint since Michael Matthews won Stage 5 and the chances are good that we won’t get one this time either. Usually Philippe Gilbert, Luis León Sanchez and Simon Gerrans would be excellent winner candidates for a finish like this one. However, they are all out of the race and instead we should probably look to opportunistic riders like Juan Antonio Flecha, Fabian Cancellara, Luca Paolini and Rinaldo Nocentini for a late attack on the hill.

Especially Fabian Cancellara is extremely strong right now and if he gets away on the descent, I doubt the peloton will see him again until after they cross the finishing line. The same goes for a rider like Samuel Sanchez. He’s getting better and better but he still isn’t able to beat the best climbers uphill. Sanchez knows how to attack on the final kilometers and keep the peloton behind him and he’s very eager to give Euskaltel their first stage win in the their last Vuelta a España.

In case it all gets back together in time for the final sprint, it should come down to a battle between Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews. In theory, any of them should have problems on the 1.2 km climb but it all depends on how fast the peloton is going. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another very good candidate for the stage win. He came close when Gilbert won and he’s been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway the last couple of days. The strong Norwegian is obviously in great shape and I would be surprised not to see him fight for the win in Burgos.

If you are looking for a super joker, look to Anthony Roux. He’s very fast on the line, especially in a reduced peloton, and he’s been doing very well the last two days in the Pyrenees. He may not be able to beat the big sprinters in a regular bunch sprint but with a finish like this one, he should be in the mix.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 17, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

Daniele Ratto took a beautiful stage win in the rain when he soloed away to win on Collada de la Gallina. Belkin deserves to be mentioned as well though. The Dutch team put in play a brilliant plan but unfortunately, Luis León Sanchez crashed on the long descent and had to quit the race. So did Ivan Basso and since Purito and Valverde are not on top of their game, this Vuelta is down to the battle between Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner.

Stage 14 was a horrible day in the saddle for the riders and it won’t get any better this Sunday. In fact, it only gets worse as the stage is almost 100 km longer. The weather stays the same and there aren’t any less climbs on the menu. On paper, this is another good stage for a breakaway. The favorites will focus on each other and since Nibali and Horner are the strongest uphill, we probably won’t see Katusha and Movistar go hard for the stage win. At least not from the very beginning.

The riders start climbing after just 7 km of the stage when Puerto del Cantó starts. The 24.4 km towards the top have an average gradient of 4.2 %. It’s steepest in the beginning and we can expect a lot of attacks right from the start. From the top of Puerto del Cantó, there are still 50 km until the next climb starts and in tailwind, the breakaway has time to get a good gap.

The final 16.7 km of stage 15 up to Peyragudes.

After 81 km it’s time for Puerto de la Bonaigua. It’s another long climb - 20 km - and with an average gradient of 5,5 %, there won’t be many riders left in the peloton at the top. The descent is almost 65 km long and it’s extremely important to be wearing enough clothes. It will be a very cold day and if you forget to eat and stay warm, you probably won’t be able to cope with the tough final in France.

The last 50 km are the same as when Alejandro Valverde won on Peyragudes in the Tour de France last year. First Col du Port de Balés, then Col de Peyresourde and after a short descent it’s time for the final 4 uphill kilometers towards the finishing line. I think a breakaway will make it all the way again, especially with the tough start of the stage in the mind. There are still many hard climbs left in this Vuelta and the GC riders have to save as much energy as possible in this horrible weather.

I had big expectations for Euskaltel’s Mikel Landa heading into to this Vuelta. Landa did very well in Burgos and seemed to be in great shape. However, he hasn’t shown much of his qualities, until this Saturday. On the hardest stage of the race so far, Mikel Landa stayed with the favorites almost all the time and finished in 9^th place. Euskaltel tried a big play with three riders (Urtasun, Martinez & Antón) attacking but they didn’t manage to get away. It really seems like the team has woken up after the good news of Fernando Alonso saving the team. Mikel Landa is more than one hour after Nibali in the GC and he’s not a rider they will give many thoughts should he attack. It shows a lot of strength to do as well as Landa did on Stage 14 and if he can recover well enough, I think he will try to give Euskaltel their first stage win in their last Vuelta España - as we have known them for 20 years.

Another rider who did very well on Saturday’s tough stage is Vasil Kiryienka. With both of his captains out of the GC, Kiryienka can now take his own chance and he tried a couple of times on stage 14. He didn’t manage to get away but when they were only 10 riders left in front, Vasil Kiryienka was still there. He faded at bit in the end and finished 26^th but I’m sure his sensations were good. The strong Belarusian knows how to get into the winning breakaways and finish it off in the big mountains.

Weather forecast for stage 15. Click for larger view.

I also think Diego Ulissi has a good chance on this stage. The young Italian won the first mountain stage in Tour of Poland last month, also in rainy conditions. Ulissi is very strong on the climbs, not afraid of attacking and he packs a very good sprint as well. The final kilometer of stage 15 is flat and should it happen a few riders arrive together, it will be difficult to beat Diego Ulissi.

In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali already showed he doesn’t mind the harsh weather. He is right now the strongest rider in the race and I doubt he will let go of the Red Jersey anymore. Of course, everybody can have an off day and it’s important to recover well after Saturday’s struggle. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how soon-to-be 42 years old Chris Horner will cope with this long and difficult stage. So far he hasn’t shown any weaknesses uphill and with Robert Kiserlovski in outstanding shape, I guess the other GC riders just can’t drop him.

Alejandro Valverde said he had the worst day of his life on bike in Andorra. He was cold on the descents and it wasn’t until they started climbing he was able to get warm and find his rhythm. However, when he started to climb he was fast. Very fast! He overtook one rider after the other to finish 6^th on the stage. Valverde knows the final on this stage climbs very well and if he can cope with the bad weather and stay in front, he has a very good chance of repeating his stage win from last year.

Katusha wanted to set up Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez near his home in Andorra but Purito simply couldn’t follow the attacks from Horner and Nibali. He decided to keep his own pace and minimize his losses and now the Spanish climber is 2:57 min after Nibali in the overall classification. He has 1:05 min up to Valverde in third place and I think it will be very difficult for Purito to make the overall podium this year. Of course, anything can still happen on these stages but Purito needs to find stronger legs if he wants to distance his rivals uphill.

If you are looking for other interesting riders to make the early breakaway, look to guys like; Chris Anker Sørensen, Andre Cardoso, Amets Txurruka, Javi Moreno, Rafa Valls and Ivan Santaromita. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 15, Laura picks Mikel Nieve to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

Philippe Gilbert finally got his first win in his Rainbow Jersey when he won stage 12 of the Vuelta. Just like last year when he arrived winless at the Vuelta. Back then, Gilbert went on to win another stage in the race and I think he may just make it two in a row. More on that later.

Stage 13 comes on a Friday and like in the Tour earlier this year, this unlucky combination may cause carnage. In July, Belkin and Saxo-Tinkoff split up the peloton in the crosswind and due to a bike problem; Alejandro Valverde ended losing his race that day. Despite riding alongside the coastline the last 15 km, the wind shouldn’t be a problem on this stage However, the steep Alto del Rat Penat will make sure, nobody arrives to final with fresh legs.

Alto del Rat Penat comes after 114.8 km and even though this category 1 climb is only 4.3 km long, its average (!) gradient of 10.6 % will definitely stretch out and split up the peloton. The following descent is very technical and on small roads, it won’t be easy to get to the front if you’re already dropped on the climb. However, it won’t be easy to keep the peloton behind you either, should you attack on the climb. The final 15 km next to beach are flat and we can expect the peloton to set a high pace at this point. It’s a short stage of only 169 km and that means it will be fast stage as well. Many of the usual sprinters will be dropped and even those remaining won’t have it easy.

Alto del Rat Penat. 4.3 km / avg. 10.6 %

With 3 km to go, the riders turn left, away from the beach. From here, they continue straight out for about two kilometers. The final kilometer includes a couple of turns and with 500 meters to go, the peloton have to overcome a rather large roundabout. Coming out of the roundabout, he final 400 meters are uphill and especially the final 150 meters are steep. It’s very important to have something left in the legs for this final part. It’s not as steep as Alto del Rat Penat but it’s enough to make a significant selection.  

Philippe Gilbert timed his sprint perfectly on stage 12 and knew he was the best in the uphill sprint. He didn’t panic when Edvald Boasson Hagen got a bug gap early and that shows that Gilbert mentally is very strong too. He hasn’t won a single bike race since he won the World Championship last year and it takes a lot to cope with that pressure. This final is perfect for Gilbert and I’m convinced BMC will do whatever they can to control the race in the final.

The biggest threat to Gilbert is, the way I see it, Dani Moreno. The strong Spaniard has already won two stages in this year’s Vuelta and a win here, will also extend his lead in the points classification. It may not be his primary target in the race but if Katusha can’t put a rider on the final podium, at least they can take the Green Jersey. Dani Moreno forgot to eat the other day, when Horner won the stage, but he still seems to be in outstanding shape. Thursday, Moreno turned 32 and a win in Castelldefels would be a great birthday present for the strong Katusha rider.

Another Katusha rider who will be extra motivated is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Stage 13 starts in Valls, the hometown of the late Xavi Tondo. The Spanish rider tragically died on May 23, 2011 while getting ready for training ride. Purito was a good friend of Tondo and last year, he won stage 17 of the Giro d’Italia on the day marking Tondo’s death. It won’t be easy for Purito to win the stage and dedicate it to his late friend but together with Dani Moreno, it’s not impossible.

Michael Matthews punctured with 5 km to go on stage 12 and didn’t get a chance to take part in the sprint. The uphill finish on stage 12 probably suited Matthews more than the one on stage 13 will do but the former U23 World Champion seems to be in great shape. Matthews has been killing the competition on the steep finish in Stirling, in Tour Down Under, two years in a row (2011 & 2012) and on a good day, he’s up there fighting with Gilbert and Moreno for the stage win.

Other strong candidates for the stage win are riders like Alejandro Valverde, Gianni Meersman, Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sanchez, Rinaldo Nocentini and Edvald Boasson Hagen. On paper, this finish is also perfect for Simon Gerrans. However, the Australian doesn’t seem to be 100 % after his crash earlier in this race. Of course, if Gerrans is ready to fight, he is one of the favorites for this stage.

Juan Antonio Flecha is another good outsider. Vacansoleil-DCM is without sprinters at the moment since Barry Markus is out of the race and Grega Bole is fighting a respiratory infection. Flecha is in great shape right now and he’s constantly near the front in the final. In addition, with 22 km to go, the peloton passes through Sitges where Flecha moved to from Argentina at the age of 11. Flecha is now living in today's finish town Castelldefels. It won’t be easy for the Spaniard to outsprint the fast guys but if he can get a little gap, he may be able to take a big win on home soil. One thing is for sure; Flecha will be extremely motivated!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 13, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Juan Antonio Flecha to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 11 (ITT) Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a time trial. This has already been a very tough race and it will be interesting to see how the legs of the GC riders will respond after a day off the bike. We have often seen riders having an off-day after a rest day and alone against the clock, you can really lose some time if you’re not ready.

This year’s Vuelta is one for the climbers and that shows on the time trial too. The 38.8 km around Tarazona include a long category 3 climb. The road book has Alto del Moncayo to be 9 km long but actually, it’s already been uphill for a while before the official start of the climb. Compared to the last time trial in the Tour de France this year, this isn’t as tough. It’s definitely a hard course but with an average gradient of just 4.1 % and no steep parts, Alto del Moncayo won’t kill the hopes of the time trial experts.

In fact, the second part of the route favors the big engines like Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara. Most of the final 20 km are downhill and we can expect a fast finish with a tailwind on this second part.

Favorites

Not surprisingly, the bookmakers' favorite is Tony Martin. He’s the double World Champion and he’s simply in a league of his own against the clock these years. The last time trial of the Tour had two hard climbs on the menu and naturally, a big rider like Martin didn’t stand a chance against Froome and Contador. The climb on this time trial isn’t as hard as those in the Tour and with a long and fast descent, it will be extremely difficult to beat the German Panzerwagen.

Fabian Cancellara is probably the only rider able to take this win away from Tony Martin. However, Cancellara hasn't been the same time machine we used see in recent years. This is probably also why he’s now focusing on the road race instead of the time trial for the World Championships in Florence later this month. Cancellara looks very lean right now and so far, he has been been very good on the climbs in this Vuelta. Because of this, some may say the climb favors him over Tony Martin but I think Cancellara’s hard work in front of the peloton will show in time trial. Tony Martin has been able to “take it easy” and save himself for this stage and that will be important. Of course, Cancellara is still a world-class time trialist and it will be a close fight for the stage win Tarazona!

Outsiders

Looking at the start list, there are many strong riders able to make podium in this time trial. Specialists like Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, Kristof Vandewalle and Lieuwe Westra all have what it takes to put in a strong performance. The climb may be too much for Vandewalle but I’m sure he’s eager to show off his Belgian national jersey. Pinotti did very well in the final time trial of Tour of Poland a month ago and on a good day, he should be up there fighting for top3. Westra has been very anonymous so far in the Vuelta. However, the team explains that Westra feels better and better every day and they now hope for a strong time trial from the Dutch national champion. For other good outsiders look to Luis León Sanchez, Jan Barta, Ben Hermans, Dario Cataldo and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Astana has a lot of riders able to do well in this discipline. Jakob Fuglsang, Janez Brajkovic, Tanel Kangert and Andriy Grivko can, in theory, all do top10 but I doubt Astana will let them go full speed. There is still a long way to Madrid and Vincenzo Nibali needs his strong domestiques to be ready when it counts. Kangert sits 14^th in the overall classification before this time trial and the team may give him the green light to try his luck. He did very well in the first time trial in the Giro this year and on a good day, he may re-enter Top10 overall Wednesday afternoon.

Overall Classification

Looking at the fight for the Red Jersey, I doubt Chris Horner will lead Vuelta España after this time trial. He’s more skinny than I’ve ever seen him and even though he has done good time trials in the past, I can’t see him keep the jersey. On the final, short (9.2 km) time trial in Tirreno-Adriatico, Horner almost lost 20 seconds to Nibali. This time trial is four times as long and despite the climb, Nibali will be able to take a lot of time on the American veteran. Last year, Horner finished 13^th overall in the Tour de France but even though he was in great shape, he didn’t do well in the time trials. The first time trial in the Tour that year was about the same length as this one and back then, Horner lost more than three minutes to Nibali. The time differences won’t be as big this time but surely Vincenzo Nibali is able to take back the 43 seconds he’s after Honer in the GC. Actually, we may even see Nibali make podium in this time trial.

Astana’s big plan for this Vuelta was for Nibali to start out the race on 75 % and by the first rest day reach 100 %. So far, everything has gone according to plan and it will be a big surprise not to see Nibali in the Red Jersey at the beginning of Thursday’s stage 12.

I also expect Nicolas Roche to do well. Bjarne Riis always demands his riders to focus on the time trials and Roche has made significant improvements this year. He finished 24^th in the final time trial in Tour de Suisse and no, that wasn’t because of the hard climb. Nicolas Roche actually had 14^th best time after the flat part. In front of riders like Peraud, Millar, Monfort, Klöden etc. In the Tour the improvements continued as Roche finished  28^th in the first time trial. The Irishman has lost 2.5 kg since the Tour and that really shows on the climbs. It will be interesting to see how weight loss will affect his time trial performance this Wednesday. He won’t beat Nibali but Roche should be able to keep the other GC riders behind him.

This is also a good course for Alejandro Valverde. He knows how to keep his pace on the demanding parts and Valverde is an excellent descender. The Movistar captain did very well in the final time trial of the Tour and even though this one isn’t as tough, he should be able to clock in a great time. Also, look out for his teammate Beñat Intxausti. The Basque rider is good against the clock and his time checks will be vital for Valverde. In addition to that, Intxausti starts just in front of Tony Martin. In the first time trial of the Tour, Thomas De Gendt started in front of Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to keep his record. At the end of the day, Thomas De Gendt finished 3rd on the stage.

Starting Order

Lieuwe Westre starts as number 18 at 13:31 and his time will most like stand for a while. Marco Pinotti starts at 14:15 and just three minutes later, it’s Tony Martin’s turn to take the starting ramp. Fabian Cancellara starts at 14:54 and as the last rider, Chris Horner roles out on the course at 16:50 local time. You can see the complete starting order HERE.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this time trial, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

As suggested in the preview yesterday, we got the second Czech stage win in a row when Leopold König won stage 8. NetApp Endura had been working in front of the peloton for most of the day and this was truly an impressive victory for the wild card team.

Stage 9 is one I’ve personally been looking forward too. On paper, this is not a very demanding stage but the final 45 km are very tough. There aren’t any big climbs on the menu but with just 22 km to, the peloton faces Alto de la Frailes. The 6.2 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.8 % and we can expect Katusha and Movistar to set a furious pace. Coming down from the top, the first 7 km are flat before the final kilometer rises towards the line. In 2010 and 2011 we had a single rider in front at this point (Uran in 2010 & Moncoutie in 2011) but you need almost a minute before the final kilometer if you want to make it all the way.

The final 1000 meters up to the finishing line is extremely steep. There are gradients of nearly 30 % and not surprisingly, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is the big favorite. In 2010, he attacked too early and ran out of gas as Igor Antón went away on the final 300 meters. In 2011, Purito took no chances. His teammate Dani Moreno hit the front as soon as the steep gradients started and only Purito, Vincenzo Nibali and Wout Poels managed to follow. Nibali couldn’t keep up the pace and like Antón the year before, Purito put in his final attack with 300 meters to go.



I expect the same scenario this year. The way I see it, nobody can beat Purito & Moreno on the finish like this one. Dani Moreno seems to be in the shape of his life right now and knowing that Purito is the team leader, I think they will try to repeat the performance from 2011. Vincenzo Nibali was the first to respond to Katusha’s attacks in 2010 and 2011 but it seems like he’s still missing a little bit at this point.

It starts to show that Alejandro Valverde wants to win the World Champions more than the Vuelta. However, few have Valverde’s killer instinct when he sees the line. The steep gradients are definitely better suited for Purito than for Valverde but compared to Nibali and Basso, Valverde should be able to gain a little time.

Nicolas Roche is new rider in the Red Jersey and as I pointed out in the overall preview, the Irishman seems to be extremely motivated to finally crack top5 overall in a Grand Tour. Roche finished 8^th in Valdepeñas de Jaén in both 2010 and 2011. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff leader will probably lose 7-10 seconds to Purito on this stage and therefor Roche shouldn’t have problems keeping the Red Jersey. The only way - as I see it - that Roche can lose the jersey is if Moreno wins the stage - gets the 10 bonus seconds - and distances Roche with 7 seconds.

Another important factor at this point in the race is the fatigue. This is the 9^th stage in a row without a rest day and many riders will be on the limits. Add to that the extreme temperatures the last couple of days. Samuel Sanchez, Roman Kreuziger & Bauke Mollema are already almost out of the GC and we could see a few more lose ground this Sunday. The time differences won’t be very big but if you have a bad day, you can easily lose 45 seconds on the final kilometer. It may not sound of much but it’s of huge psychological value.

It’s difficult to point at a joker for this stage. Purito and Moreno are in a league of their own on this kind of finishes and without Carlos Betancur in good shape, no one really has what it takes to beat them. Sergio Henao and Domenico Pozzovivo are both strong on the steep gradients but they need to attack right from the bottom if they want to win this stage. Pozzovivo’s teammate Rinaldo Nocentini is usually good on a finish like this but against the GC riders, I doubt he win. Igor Antón came close on stage 8 but I don’t think he has the same kick he had in 2010 when he won. Wout Poels too is far from his Vuelta shape from 2011 when he finished 2^nd. A super joker could be Ivan Santaromita. The Italian champion is in great shape right now and with only 58 kg to carry, he has what it takes to stay in front on the steep gradients.

Last but not least, we can’t forget about the World Champion Philippe Gilbert. Like last year, he seems to be getting better and better as the Vuelta progresses. Had this been 2011, we all know who would win the stage. However, Gilbert doesn’t have the same kick he had two years ago and with parts of 30 %, I can’t see him beat Purito and Moreno. He may take 3^rd place on the stage but to me, it would be a little surprising to see him take his first win in the rainbow jersey here.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 9, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

What an effort from Tony Martin on stage 6. Alone in front from the start to the end, well almost to the end. Fabian Cancellara got a jump on the Argos-Shimano train and performed a perfect leadout for Michael Mørkøv who won the stage. This is only the second professional win in Mørkøv’s career. The first one came in June earlier this year when he won the Danish Championship. Impressive.

Stage 7 is another flat stage and after missing out on Thursday, I’m sure the sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances. The peloton continues south into Andalucía and without a single categorized climb, this won’t be a difficult day in the saddle. The GC riders will have their mind fixed on tomorrow’s mountain stage and they will hope for a quiet day in the peloton.

Everybody managed to stay upright despite the technical finish on stage 6 and hopefully the same will happen Friday afternoon. Once again the race organizers have put in numerous obstacles on the final kilometers. Six roundabouts within the last three kilometers are what the riders have to overcome. The last one, turning right, is placed just 700 meters from the line. The road slightly bends to the left on the last 300 meters and first rider out of this bend most likely wins the stage.

It’s another technical finish but luckily the riders will have a chance to get to know it before it counts. There is an intermediate sprint on the finishing line with 31.4 km to go and knowing the route will hopefully keep everybody upright in the final.

Argos-Shimano almost managed to set up Ramon Sinkeldam perfectly on stage 6. Tony Martin’s strong effort made them take the lead a little too early and they paid for their work in the end. Sinkeldam was extra motivated to win on his wife’s birthday but despite great legs, he couldn’t do better than 15^th place. As I mentioned yesterday, this isn’t Argos-Shimano’s top leadout team. It’s a young team but they still show a lot of power taking the lead. I think it will be a “normal” bunch sprint on stage 7 and if they manage to set up Ramon Sinkeldam again, he could take the peloton by surprise.

The final 5 kilometers of stage 7. Click for larger view.

Like Argos-Shimano, also GreenEdge have a couple of strong guys for the sprints. Michael Matthews is obviously the fastest one right now but a flat sprint like this one is probably better for Leigh Howard. Matthews said that everything now is just a bonus but I’m sure the Australians are very eager to take another win. Matthews is now riding in the green points jersey and the despite the many mountains, this could be a goal for him. It won’t be easy but if GreenEdge decides to go for him in all the sprints, I can’t see why he shouldn’t win a handful more stages.

Max Richeze has been second the last two days in a row and he’s definitely one of the favorites for this stage. The Argentinian sprinter is getting better and better as the race goes on. He doesn’t have that final leadout rider to deliver him in the sprints but he’s very fast on the final meters. Richeze needs to get on the right wheel and he if manages so, he could very well end up winning this stage.

Tyler Farrar couldn’t to better than fourth place on stage 6 but to be fair, Farrar was very fast in the end. The American’s big problem is his positioning. Personally, I don’t understand why Garmin doesn’t wait until the end before taking the lead. Alex Rasmussen is a brilliant leadout rider and if Farrar enters the last bend on the wheel of Rasmussen, he will be extremely difficult to beat.

Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely try to set up Gianni Meersman again on stage 7. The Belgian sprinter doesn’t seem to be as fast as Matthews and Richeze right now but with a little bit of luck, Omega Pharma Quickstep may finally take a stage win.

I also have to mention Michael Mørkøv among the candidates after his impressive win on stage 6. The Danish Champion said he was sure he would win when he saw the finish line on the wheel of Cancellara. Obviously he’s in great shape right now. Usually, Mørkøv works hard for his teammates but after his win in Cáceres, I’m sure he will be eager to try again in Mairena Del Aljarafe.

The way I see it, there is 95 % chance of this stage ending in a bunch sprint. A break will definitely get away in the beginning but they know it’s almost doomed. It’s usually local riders and riders from the smaller teams who get into these kind of breakaways and as one of the semi-locals, look out for Luis Angel Maté. El Lince Andaluz is not afraid of attacking despite poor chances of succeeding and I’m sure we will see the Cofidis rider in a break soon. If not this Friday then definitely in the weekend.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 7, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv