Vuelta a España: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

Katusha did exactly what we expected on stage 9 and Dani Moreno showed how strong he is right now. Nicolas Roche lost the Red Jersey by one second to Moreno and it will be interesting to see who will lead the race after Monday’s extremely tough day in the mountains.

Stage 10 is the last day to overcome before the first rest day of the race. On paper, this is a good stage for a breakaway to make it but it has to be a break of very strong riders. The first 74 km don’t include any categorized climbs but there are several long hills which will make for a hard start of this stage. Everybody knows the breakaway has a chance today and therefore we can expect a fast start with many attacks.

Alto de Monachil. 8.5 km / 7.7 % avg.

The first part of the stage is tough but it’s nothing compared to the final 36 km. Alto de Monachil starts after 150 km in the saddle. The 8.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of 7.7 % and the first four kilometers are very steep. There are just 27.8 to go from the top of Alto de Monachil and after a descent, which is not easy at all, Alto de Hazallanas starts right away.

The first 5 kilometers have an average gradient of 5 %. The following 3-4 km are more or less flat and after a descent through Güéjar Sierra, the actually climb begins. The final 7 km kick up with 8.5 % and there are numerous parts of over 15 %. With two kilometers to go the gradients almost reach 20 % and this will be a perfect place for the pure climbers to put in a strong attack. The final km is not very steep and the stage actually ends with a little descent towards the line.

So far Dani Moreno has been the strongest rider uphill in the race and it’ difficult to see him losing the Red Jersey. However, the time differences between the first five are still very small. Horner, in fifth place, is only 28 seconds behind Moreno. It’s now up to Katusha to control the race and I’m personally looking forward to see when/if Purito attacks. He doesn’t seem to be on top of his game right now but he needs to take back time on Nibali and the other GC riders. The steep gradients suit Purito perfectly and even if he can’t drop his rivals, he can lead the way for Dani Moreno to attack in the final and extend his lead.

Compared to the steady uphill finish on Saturday, this final climb doesn’t suit Ivan Basso very well. The Cannondale captain is without a doubt in great shape right now but the constant change of rhythm is not good for Basso. That being said, if Basso shows the same strength as the other day, he won’t lose much time to guys like Moreno, Purito and Valverde.

Especially Alejandro Valverde will be interesting to follow on the final climb. I expect Movistar to put a rider in the morning breakaway and by that make Katusha do all the work in the peloton. Valverde hesitated a bit when Dani Moreno attacked on stage 9 but he still showed good legs by taking second place. In the last couple of uphill finishes, Valverde and Purito have waited until the final 500 meters by attacking their rivals. If they attack a bit earlier on Hazallanas, they could really take some time. Also, if the peloton catches the breakaway, it will be difficult to beat Valverde in a finish like this one.

Alto de Hazallanas. 15.8 km / 5 % avg.

Chris Horner had big hopes for Saturday’s uphill finish but after a couple of strong attacks, he couldn’t respond when Roche, Basso and Moreno went away. Horner likes it steep but not on a short distance as in Valdepeñas de Jaén. Alto de Hazallanas is a perfect climb for the American veteran and I’m sure he will try to take back the Red Jersey.

On paper, Astana has one of the strongest teams in this year’s Vuelta. However, Vincenzo Nibali was very isolated the other day. Only Tanel Kangert was with him in the end and right now, it doesn’t seem like Nibali is on the same level as Dani Moreno and Nicolas Roche. It may come later in the race, I’m sure it does, but he still has work to do. His teammate Jakob Fuglsang has deliberately lost one minute after the other in order to drop out of the overall classification. Fuglsang aims at winning a stage after missing out in Dauphiné and in the Tour earlier this year. As pointed out, this is a good day for a breakaway and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jakob Fuglsang in the break. Fuglsang is eager to win and he needs to take advantage of his post-Tour shape before it’s too late. If you’re looking for a joker for the stage win, I’ll suggest the Danish climber.

The final climb is also suiting riders like Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Sergio Henao and Leopold König very well. König has already shown his strength and even though I doubt he wins this stage, he should be able to stay near the favorites. Sergio Henao is 3:28 min after in the overall classification and even though there is still a long way to Madrid, he soon needs to start taking back time. Henao is a great climber and if he has the legs to do it, he should attack early on the final 7 kilometers. Pozzovivo started out this Vuelta aiming for top5 overall but he too has some ground to make up. The pint-sized Italian is not afraid of attacking from a far and this climb is pretty much perfect for him. If the other GC riders start looking at each other, I’m sure Pozzovivo will try to sneak away.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 10, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

As suggested in the preview yesterday, we got the second Czech stage win in a row when Leopold König won stage 8. NetApp Endura had been working in front of the peloton for most of the day and this was truly an impressive victory for the wild card team.

Stage 9 is one I’ve personally been looking forward too. On paper, this is not a very demanding stage but the final 45 km are very tough. There aren’t any big climbs on the menu but with just 22 km to, the peloton faces Alto de la Frailes. The 6.2 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.8 % and we can expect Katusha and Movistar to set a furious pace. Coming down from the top, the first 7 km are flat before the final kilometer rises towards the line. In 2010 and 2011 we had a single rider in front at this point (Uran in 2010 & Moncoutie in 2011) but you need almost a minute before the final kilometer if you want to make it all the way.

The final 1000 meters up to the finishing line is extremely steep. There are gradients of nearly 30 % and not surprisingly, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is the big favorite. In 2010, he attacked too early and ran out of gas as Igor Antón went away on the final 300 meters. In 2011, Purito took no chances. His teammate Dani Moreno hit the front as soon as the steep gradients started and only Purito, Vincenzo Nibali and Wout Poels managed to follow. Nibali couldn’t keep up the pace and like Antón the year before, Purito put in his final attack with 300 meters to go.



I expect the same scenario this year. The way I see it, nobody can beat Purito & Moreno on the finish like this one. Dani Moreno seems to be in the shape of his life right now and knowing that Purito is the team leader, I think they will try to repeat the performance from 2011. Vincenzo Nibali was the first to respond to Katusha’s attacks in 2010 and 2011 but it seems like he’s still missing a little bit at this point.

It starts to show that Alejandro Valverde wants to win the World Champions more than the Vuelta. However, few have Valverde’s killer instinct when he sees the line. The steep gradients are definitely better suited for Purito than for Valverde but compared to Nibali and Basso, Valverde should be able to gain a little time.

Nicolas Roche is new rider in the Red Jersey and as I pointed out in the overall preview, the Irishman seems to be extremely motivated to finally crack top5 overall in a Grand Tour. Roche finished 8^th in Valdepeñas de Jaén in both 2010 and 2011. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff leader will probably lose 7-10 seconds to Purito on this stage and therefor Roche shouldn’t have problems keeping the Red Jersey. The only way - as I see it - that Roche can lose the jersey is if Moreno wins the stage - gets the 10 bonus seconds - and distances Roche with 7 seconds.

Another important factor at this point in the race is the fatigue. This is the 9^th stage in a row without a rest day and many riders will be on the limits. Add to that the extreme temperatures the last couple of days. Samuel Sanchez, Roman Kreuziger & Bauke Mollema are already almost out of the GC and we could see a few more lose ground this Sunday. The time differences won’t be very big but if you have a bad day, you can easily lose 45 seconds on the final kilometer. It may not sound of much but it’s of huge psychological value.

It’s difficult to point at a joker for this stage. Purito and Moreno are in a league of their own on this kind of finishes and without Carlos Betancur in good shape, no one really has what it takes to beat them. Sergio Henao and Domenico Pozzovivo are both strong on the steep gradients but they need to attack right from the bottom if they want to win this stage. Pozzovivo’s teammate Rinaldo Nocentini is usually good on a finish like this but against the GC riders, I doubt he win. Igor Antón came close on stage 8 but I don’t think he has the same kick he had in 2010 when he won. Wout Poels too is far from his Vuelta shape from 2011 when he finished 2^nd. A super joker could be Ivan Santaromita. The Italian champion is in great shape right now and with only 58 kg to carry, he has what it takes to stay in front on the steep gradients.

Last but not least, we can’t forget about the World Champion Philippe Gilbert. Like last year, he seems to be getting better and better as the Vuelta progresses. Had this been 2011, we all know who would win the stage. However, Gilbert doesn’t have the same kick he had two years ago and with parts of 30 %, I can’t see him beat Purito and Moreno. He may take 3^rd place on the stage but to me, it would be a little surprising to see him take his first win in the rainbow jersey here.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 9, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

Another sprint stage turned into a crazy cat and mouse game. Zdenek Stybar showed his class once again when he out-sprinted Philippe Gilbert. The World Champion is therefore still winless in the rainbow jersey.

The sprinters have had their chances the last three days in a row and now it’s time for the GC riders to take charge. Stage 8 is only 166.6 km long and that makes for a fast day under the hot Andalusian sun. The first 125 km of the stage will take place in head- and crosswind. The break has a good chance of making it all the way and we can expect a furious fight to get into that final break.

With about 40 km to go the riders turn left and continue alongside the coast. There is an intermediate sprint in Estepona and four kilometers later, the final climb begins. Peñas Blancas is a category 1 climb and the 14.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 %. The first couple of kilometers are very steep with parts over 12 %. The next part is not very steep but it’s constantly up and down and it will be very difficult to keep a steady rhythm. The last 8 km, however, have a steady gradient of 7-8 % and contrary to the beginning of the stage, the riders now have a tailwind all the way to the line. The change of wind favors the opportunistic riders but in the end, it’s all about having the best legs.

Many riders are not familiar with this climb but one rider knows it like the back of his hand. I talked about Luis Angel Maté in the preview for stage 7. He didn’t make the break but it would surprise me not to see him try this Saturday. Maté rides Peñas Blancas a couple of times a week and he knows every meter towards the finishing line. You may not think of Maté as a climber but he’s been getting better and better uphill the recent years. In the Tour de France this summer he was the last rider to help teammate Dani Navarro finish in Top10 overall. On the final mountain stage to Annecy, Maté finished 27^th in front of strong climbers like Antón, Ten Dam and Rolland.

In case the GC riders end up gunning for the stage win, Alejandro Valverde must be the favorite. Valverde has been eager to point out that for him the World Champions is more important than the Vuelta. However, the Movistar leader is in great shape and the steady finish suits him very well. Furthermore, Valverde is very fast on the line and should the top favorites arrive together, I can’t see anybody outsprinting him. The only thing talking against Valverde is that he doesn't know the climb. Valverde’s teammates Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi and José Herrada could also be jokers for the stage win. Especially Herrada has been extremely strong, leading the peloton whenever the road kicks up.

Peñas Blancas. 14.5 km / avg. 6.6 % - Click for lager view.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is already 53 seconds after Vincenzo Nibali in the overall classification. The Spanish climber knows he has to gain time whenever he can but this isn’t really a great climb for Purito. He will ‘enjoy’ the first couple of kilometers with steep gradients and constantly change of rhythm. However, the final 8 km with steady gradients won’t make it easy for Purito to drop his rivals. Instead, teammate Dani Moreno may put in another attack and take advantage of his great shape. Riders like Ivan Basso and Samuel Sanchez are normally very good on these kind of climbs and I expect to see both of them in the front as well.

The leading rider, Vincenzo Nibali, won’t have any problems on Peñas Blancas. Paolo Tiralongo, Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang will be supporting their team leader on the climb and especially Fuglsang looks very strong right now. Nibali knows he can take time on his rivals in the individual time trial in a couple of days and he doesn’t need to attack already. Before the Vuelta started, Nibali said he was starting out on 75 % of his maximum level. So far, the Italian shark has been showing great shape but on a tough climb like this one, it may be best to ride a little cautious. Of course, if Nibali sees a chance to attack in the final and get the 10 bonus seconds, he won’t think twice.

One of my personal outsiders for the stage win is Leopold König. His countryman Stybar won stage 7 and it won’t be a big surprise if we get another Czech win on Saturday. König arrived to the Vuelta in great shape and he put in a strong attack on stage 2. Nicolas Roche ended up winning the stage but the NetApp Endura captain showed his great climbing legs. Peñas Blancas suits Leo König very well and if the favorites start looking at each other, I’m sure König will take his chance.

Other good candidates for the stage win are Domenico Pozzovivo, who’s in outstanding shape right now, Chris Horner, who is aiming to take back the Red Jersey, Bauke Mollema, who looks very strong and Sergio Henao, who is eager to take back the time he lost on stage 2.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 8, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Saturday's opening team time trial ended like we expected. OPQS set best time but in the end, Radioshack and Astana turned out to be a bit stronger. Of course it didn’t help OPQS that they had to wait a couple of times when Tony Martin made a gap to the rider behind him. Janez Brajkovic is first rider in the Red Jersey and that’s a perfect way to start out this race for the Slovenian rider. Brajkovic is without a contract for next year and he’s now using the Vuelta to show how great of a rider he is. Naturally, Vincenzo Nibali is the team leader, but Brajkovic hopes to make a good result overall while supporting this captain.

Usually it’s not an advantage for the big favorites to get the leader’s jersey already after the first stage. Therefore we often see a breakaway making it all the way early in the race. On paper, this second stage looks good for a break but since Brajkovic wants to get maximum attention in this race, I doubt he will give up the jersey.

The 177.7 km from Pontevedra to Baiona takes the riders south alongside the Galician coast. The TV-viewers are in for a spectacular view but the riders won’t have time to enjoy it. There aren’t many flat meters in this area and even though the profile doesn’t look very tough, it won’t be an easy day in the saddle.

The first categorized climb of this year’s Vuelta comes after 62.9 km and we should see a breakaway in front at this time. For teams like Euskaltel, Caja Rural, NetApp & Vancansoleil-DCM it will be important to get the KOM jersey and I think all four teams will be represented in the morning break.

Alto do Monte da Groba. 11 km - 5.6 % avg.

The stage finish with an 11 km long ascent up to Alto do Monte da Groba. The climb is steep in the beginning with parts of 10 % but then it evens out for about 4 km with gradients of 2-4 %. The final two kilometers have an average gradient of 7.5 % and especially the last corner is very steep. If you manage to get a little gap in this right hand corner, you should end up winning the stage with only 300 meters to go.

Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez (Katusha) didn’t have a great start to the race. Movistar lost Beñat Inxtausti early due a mechanical problem and Katusha had to wait for Dani Moreno as he was the 5^th and last rider in the end. Movistar lost 29 seconds to Vincenzo Nibali and Astana while Purito already is 59 seconds behind Nibali in the GC. There is still a long way to Madrid but Purito needs to win seconds every time he can. This means that Katusha most likely will try to control the stage in order to set up Purito for the win and the 10 bonus seconds on the line. Movistar should be able to help out as well since Valverde is very fast too.  The two Spaniards are definitely the big favorites this Sunday.

The final right hand corner towards the finishing line.

Had this been the Giro, I would have put Carlos Betancur down as one of the favorites. But, as I wrote in my overall preview, Betancur didn’t have an ideal preparation to the Vuelta. He’s been sick and he doesn’t look too good right now. I’m sure Betancur will be flying by the end of the race but I doubt we will see him in the very front already. 

His countryman, Sergio Henao, however is one of the outsiders who can win this stage. Henao has a strong kick and if he times it perfectly, he may be able to get a jump on Purito and Valverde if the two favorites start looking at each other. It’s also worth mentioning that Team Sky won’t be taking their usual role in a Grand Tour. Astana, Movistar and Katusha have the three big favorites for the overall win and therefore Team Sky don’t have to work as much as usually. They can save energy and wait for the right time to attack. Personally I think Dario Cataldo will have a great Vuelta and I won’t be surprised if he attacks and makes something big on Alto do Monte da Groba.  

In my overall preview I named Tomasz Marczynski as one of my jokers for the GC. The polish rider is very aggressive on the climbs and if he sees a moment to attack in the final, he won’t think twice. His teammate Wout Poels is in great shape right now and in those two, Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of very strong outsiders for the win. Luisle Sanchez is back on the big scene again and he must be eager to show himself in his home country. The final kilometer may be too steep for Sanchez but on a good day he could give Belkin something to cheer for after the team lost Theo Bos before the race even started.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 2, Laura picks Sergio Henao to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España 2013 - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the third and final Grand Tour of the season. This year’s Vuelta a España is a real climbers delight with no less than 12 stages finishing uphill. The favorites are many and there are no doubts that this is the most open of the three Grand Tours this year.

Once again, the race starts out with a team time trial but compared to the last couple of years, the time differences will be much bigger this time. We have an uphill finish already on the second day and this means you can’t afford to start out too far off your game. The first sprint stage isn’t due until Stage 5 and we can expect relatively big time differences in the overall classification already at this point. However, it’s nothing compared to the last week. Six out of the last eight stages finish on the top of a climb and with Angliru on the penultimate day, nothing is certain before the final stage to Madrid.

For this year’s Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, it was pretty easy picking out the few big favorites. Without Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali had no real competition in the Giro and since Alberto Contador wasn’t as strong as usually in the Tour, Chris Froome wasn’t really threatened at any point in the Tour. This Vuelta, however, is wide open. Vincenzo Nibali is my personal favorite for the overall win but it won’t be easy to repeat his 2010-performance. I expect Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez, Ivan Basso, Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez to fight for the Red Jersey and I’m sure a we will see a couple of outsiders in the mix as well.

I don’t remember a Grand Tour with so many strong riders fighting for Top10. Just by a quick glans of the start list, I see at least 25 riders with an actual chance of finishing within the ten first. Veterans like Chris Horner and Michele Scarponi both start out the Vuelta with podium ambitions and even though I doubt it will happen, I won’t rule them out as possible Top5 in Madrid.

These are the 21 stages of this year's Vuelta a España. 

Another very interesting ‘veteran’ is Ivan Basso. This season has been a nightmare for former Giro d’Italia winner and he’s now hoping to make it all right with a good performance in the Vuelta. Usually you never see Ivan Basso until it really counts. This year Chris Froome won everything leading up the Tour. Basso's preparation is completely different. He knows how to prepare in his own way and he always manages to deliver when it’s time. Still, in Tour of Poland Basso finished fifth on the first mountain stage and without doing much more in the race, he took 8^th place overall. In Vuelta a Burgos he decided to test himself on the final mountain stage and he looked very strong when he dropped Vincenzo Nibali to finish third on Lagunas de Neila. Ivan Basso is not great on the short steep finishes but this Vuelta is lot more than that, and I’m sure Basso will make a great race and finish in the top.

Originally, I had Carlos Betancur down for a podium place but the Colombian climber has been sick recently and therefore hasn’t been able to prepare the way he wanted. Also, he hasn’t raced since the Giro. For Betancur, the World Champions in Italy is the big goal for this second part of the season. He may not start out this Vuelta in great shape but I’m sure he will be flying by the end of the race. It could easily be enough to make Top10 overall but I doubt he’ll be a player for the podium. Another strong GC rider from Ag2r is Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian climber finished 7^th overall in Tour of Poland and I expect him do very well in this Vuelta.

A Colombian rider has finished 2^nd overall in the first two Grand Tours of 2013 and in case Carlos Betancur isn’t ready, it’s up to Sergio Henao to keep up the tradition. Henao started out this year in a very strong way by winning the mountain stage in Volta ao Algarve. He then went on to win a stage in Vuelta Pais Vasco, where he finished 3^rd overall, before taking second place in Flèche Wallone. As expected, he faded in the end of the Giro but recently he looked strong in Tour of Poland with a 5^th place overall. Last year, Sergio Henao finished 14^th in the Vuelta after helping out team leader Chris Froome. This year, Henao is the leader and he has a very strong team to support him. Dario Cataldo - who I think will do very well in this race - and Rigoberto Uran will be at his service in the mountains. Team Sky have finished 2^nd (Uran, Giro) and 1^st (Froome, Tour) in the last two Grand Tours and they are eager to continue that streak. Both Purito and Valverde had to dig deep in the Tour de France and in case they end up paying for that in the final week of the Vuelta, Henao and others will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

This year’s Vuelta will be the last one with Euskaltel-Euskadi on the start list. The orange color of the Basque team will be dearly missed in the mountains but not just yet. With Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Nieve, Igor Antón and Mikel Landa among the nine starters, Euskaltel show they are ready to fight. The goal is to put Samuel Sanchez on the final podium in Madrid and it won’t be a surprise if they succeed. Sanchez is experienced and already knows what it takes to make Top3 in the Vuelta. He should be able to gain some time on his rivals in the individual time trial and if he hits his top level, he won’t be easy to drop in the mountains either.

Before I end, I’ll quickly mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. The Danish team has a strong line up with Roman Kreuziger, Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. When announcing the team, DS Tristan Hoffman said he saw Kreuziger as the natural leader. However, the Czech rider himself says he won’t be targeting the overall classification. Kreuziger has already had a long and very successful season and he’s now focusing on the World Champions. Instead of going for the GC, Kreuziger will aim at a stage win and to help out Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. Especially Roche is eager to perform well. The Irishman has been aiming at the Vuelta the whole season and after dropping a few kilos, he’s now not afraid of talking about Top5 overall. It will be interesting to see if he can live up to his own expectations.  

The map of this year's Vuelta a España starting in Galicia and finishing in Madrid after 21 stages.

As always, I have a few jokers for you as well. First up is David Arroyo. After more than 10 years on Movistar (and its former names), Arroyo moved to the little Spanish team, Caja Rural for this season. He didn’t do much to show his name in the first part of the year but lately he’s been getting better and better. He came close to winning Vuelta a Burgos overall a few weeks ago and he looked very strong in the mountains. Only super climber Nairo Quintana could distance Arroyo uphill on the final day and now the Spaniard hopes to shine in the Vuelta. David Arroyo surprised everyone when he finished second overall in the Giro d’Italia three years ago. I doubt he can repeat that performance this time but I definitely see him as a strong Top10 candidate. Maybe even more if everything goes his way again.

My second joker for the overall classification is Tomasz Marczynski. It’s a been a great year for Polish cycling and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues in the Vuelta. Last year, Marczynski made a few mistakes in the last week of the race but still managed to finish 13^th overall. There are a lot more candidates this year but I still think Marczynski has what it takes to make Top10. Vacansoleil-DCM are desperately searching for a new sponsor for next year and they bring their strongest team possible to the Vuelta. Riders like Wout Poels, Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra could all lead the team but according to my information, the Dutch team is putting their faith in Tomasz Marczynski.

Other good jokers for the overall classification are Movistar’s three super domestiques; Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi & Beñat Intxausti. Sames goes for Lampre’s [future super] climber Winner Anacona and Team NetApp’s Leopold König.

There are about six stages for the sprinters is this year’s Vuelta a España. Still, we don’t have any super sprinters starting the race. Tyler Farrar will have a unique opportunity to regain status as a “top sprinter” without the competition of Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Sagan etc. etc. Farrar’s rivals will be Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, Theo Bos, Leigh Howard and the youngsters Barry Markus, Michael Matthews and Adrien Petit. Personally, I expect a lot from Barry Markus. He has recently signed a deal with Team Belkin for 2014 saying he wants to learn from Theo Bos. However, in my opinion, he will already show that he is a level above Bos in this Vuelta.

In the beginning, I wrote I saw at least 25 riders with a chance of making Top10 in this race. I’ll leave you with the list of those riders. The order is irrelevant.

Nibali	Majka
Valverde	Arroyo
Purito	Mollema
Basso	Cataldo
Henao	Capecchi
Sanchez	Intxausti
Betancur	Moreno x2
Horner	Zubeldia
Pozzovivo	Marczynski
Roche	Ten Dam
Scarponi	Uran
Pinot	Dan Martin
Landa	De Clercq
Nieve Vanendert	Antón De Gendt

I will be publishing daily Stage Previews during the race. Each preview will be online the evening before the stage starts. For live coverage of Vuelta a España 2013 go to steephill.tv

Flèche Wallonne: Preview & Favorites

This mini-classic is the most explosive one of the three Ardennes races this week. The steep Mur de Huy always makes for an exciting finish and like the last nine years, I’m sure it will all come down to the final 1300 meters this time.

It’s 10 years ago Igor Astarloa won Flèche Wallone after a big morning break managed to keep the peloton at bay, and even though Roman Kreuziger’s win in Amstel Gold Race could be an indicator of another break making it, I highly doubt it. Phillipe Gilbert is eager to get his first win in the rainbow jersey and together with the Colombia duo Sergio Henao & Nairo Quintana he is the man to beat on Wednesday.

BMC have been very strong lately and Phillipe Gilbert seems to back at his best. He will probably never going to be as strong as in 2011 but without Purito Rodriguez [at this moment Purito isn’t sure he’s able to ride after his crash in Amstel Gold Race], it difficult to pick another winner. No one was able to follow Gilbert on Cauberg last Sunday and even though Mur de Huy is a lot steeper, it still showed the strength of Gilbert right now.

In 2010 Igor Antón and Alberto Contador attacked early on Mur de Huy and got a nice little gap before Cadel Evans and Purito caught them near the top. Evans won the race back then and I think this year’s edition will have some of the same scenario. Sergio Henao and Nairo Quintana don’t stand a chance against Gilbert in ‘sprint’ on the final meters and they both know they need to get away on the steep part in order to win. Both were outstanding in Vuelta Pais Vasco earlier this month, especially on the steep gradients, and I would be surprised if none of the two tries to get away on the parts of 17%. Phillipe Gilbert knows he probably won’t be able to follow the Colombians on these gradients but if he can minimize the gap before the final ‘flat’ (5%) part, I still think he can come back and win the race.

Another strong contender is Alejandro Valverde. Just like at the World Champions last year, he wasn’t very well positioned when Gilbert attacked last Sunday, but this time he managed to close the gap quickly and win the sprint for 2^nd place. I think Liege-Bastogne-Liege is more suited for Valverde and it would make sense for him to pay back Quintana a little for all the hard work the Colombian has done for Valverde the last year. Still, don’t be surprised if Valverde manages to hang onto Gilbert and sprint for the win.

My two personal jokers for Flèche Wallone this year are Igor Antón and Daniel Martin. As mentioned earlier, Igor Antón put in a strong attack in 2010 (ended 4^th) and this year he’s aiming to do the same. His condition has increased significantly the last month or so and with the recent success for Euskaltel, he should be proper motivated to do well. Antón has big ambitions for the last two Ardennes races and if he enters Mur de Huy in a good position, he could very well end up fighting for the win again.

Mur de Huy. 1,3 km / 9,3% avg.
Photo from: climbbybike.com

This is also an important week for Daniel Martin. He was keen on showing his good shape in Amstel Gold Race, but crashed before the final. The Irish climber normally feeds on success and with his impressive overall win in Volta Catalunya, his confident should still be great heading into the last two Ardennes. races Martin reports he’s fine despite his crash last Sunday and I think he will end up doing something great in Flèche Wallone. 

Garmin have Ryder Hesjedal in the race too, but if Daniel Martin is still in front when reaching Mur de Huy, he should be the card to play. Not only does he climb very well he is also very fast on the line. He managed to keep Purito and Quintana behind after a long breakaway when he won the mountain stage in Catalunya and shows he’s not playing around. If an outsider ends up winning Flèche Wallone, like Roman Kreuziger won Amstel Gold Race, I think that outsider will be Daniel Martin.

Peter Sagan deserves to be mention as well, but I doubt he can follow the best on the steep parts. He suffered from cramps in the final of Amstel Gold Race and having never done Mur de Huy before, I don’t think he can win Flèche Wallone. The great shape Sagan showed in Brabantse Pijl can’t just disappear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he either attacks from afar or ends up helping his teammates Damiano Caruso and Moreno Moser.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Podium pick: Sergio Henao

Jokers: Igor Antón & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 6 Preview

Stage 5 started out just like expected, many attacks and three Movistar riders in front. Team Sky were down to only Vasil Kiryienka in support of Richie Porte and Sergio Henao but apparently, that didn’t mean much. The strong Belarusian lead the peloton alone for 50 km and in the end Porte won in front of my pre-picked favorite Samuel Sanchez and Team Sky team mate Henao. On a stage where everybody needed to distance Richie Porte, the Tasmanian ended up distancing everybody else.

Friday’s Team Sky show leaves us with Richie Porte as the massive favorite for both the stage win and the overall victory. Porte has been outstanding against the clock this season and on a demanding course for the GC riders, I can’t really see anybody threatening him if he’s 100%.

A lot of riders dropped out of the race on stage 5, including strong time trialists like Tejay van Garderen, Rein Taaramae, Michael Rogers and Andreas Klöden. Only the toughest riders remain and even these will feel Friday’s stage in their legs, especially with another day of heavy rain.

The course is very hard with steep climbs and tricky descents. One wrong turn or one slippery piece of road is all it takes to ruin your GC dreams on this stage, but with the first five riders within 10 seconds, nobody can take it easy. It’s full gas from the start and whomever dares to take the most chances will end up winning Vuelta Pais Vasco overall. I don't think this course is good for Tony Martin and having already crashed once in this race, I think he will be a little bit more careful in the rain.

Samuel Sanchez showed to be back in the game on stage 5 and I’m sure he will give everything he has, and take all the chances he needs, in order to give Euskaltel their first win of the season. Sanchez hasn’t won anything since he won the final time trial of last year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and he will be eager to show he’s back.

Simon Spilak is normally very strong the rain and he also tried to get away, catching Richie Porte, on the final km on stage 5. Friday was Katusha owner Igor Makarov’s birthday and even though it didn’t end up with another win (Purito won on his birthday last year), I’m sure Makarov will settled for a spot on the final podium. Spilak should be able to take 10 seconds on both Henao and Quintana on this stage and if so, it’s up Richie Porte and Alberto Contador not let him take the overall win too.

I’ve been naming Beñat Intxausti a couple of times as my joker in this race, but his crash on stage 1 seems to have kept him from performing as expected. Still, I see him stronger and stronger every day and this time trial really suits him well. He has to dig deep in order to provide Nairo Quintana with valuable time splits and I honestly think Intxausti has a chance of winning this stage if Porte doesn’t destroy them all again.

Favorites: Richie Porte & Samuel Sanchez

Joker: Beñat Intxausti 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview

Remember the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.

There will be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r, Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.

The beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an early break will make it.

I think Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week, giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.

Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top.

Euskaltel have, naturally, also been out doing some recon of these stages last week, and I’m sure Samuel Sanchez will be eager to take the first personal win in over a year and Euskaltel’s first win of the season. Sanchez too was very good on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and the short hills and tricky descents are perfect for him - especially in the rain, where other riders have problems.

Team Sky lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group with Porte left behind.

Damiano Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front, I’m sure he will try something in the final.

In Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the stage and they ended 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. On this stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates instead.

Favorites: Quintana, Sanchez.

Solid outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón

Jokers: Fuglsang, Gilbert, Vicioso

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 4 Preview

This is the typical finish on Arrate. It’s a classic in the recent year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and it was also used in the Vuelta España last year. Normally the rule is; “First rider in the last corner takes the stage”, but last year in the Vuelta, Purito started to celebrate a millisecond too early and by that gave the stage to Valverde.

Samuel Sanchez has won this stage the last three years in a row and naturally, he is among the favorites again this year. Still, it’s important to remember that Sanchez is not here in tip-top condition like the last years. This time he’s 100% focused on peaking in the Giro d’Italia and with strong climbers in the race like Contador, Henao, Porte, Betancur, Quintana, etc it won’t be easy to make it four in a row.

In my eyes, Alberto Contador is still the big GC favorite after stage 3. Contador won on Arrate back in 2009 after he soloed away from the other favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again this year. The first 6 km of the final climb have a steady gradient of 7,5% before the final “flat” (3%) 1,3 km. As mentioned in the previous previews, there aren’t any bonus seconds in the race, so if you want an advantage before the time trial, you need to attack when possible. 

I think Team Sky will try to control the race on final climb, like they have been doing all year long, and try to set Sergio Henao up for another lethal attack. Henao needs time before the time trial and right now he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. Movistar have strong riders like Rui Costa, Beñat Inxtausti and Nairo Quintana for this stage and I’m sure they will try something too. This climbs suits Quintana a lot more than the one on stage 3 and if he can cope with the expect rain, he will be very dangerous.

Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.

My personal joker for the stage is Pieter Weening. The morale on GreenEdge is sky high after two stage wins already and Weening did very well on La Lejana despite the steep gradients not being in his favor. Weening is fast on the line and if the we see a little group sprinting for the win again this year, I expcet Weening to be up there. The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The young Italian has been showing great shape lately and is always good in the rain. He has team mate Damiano Cunego to help him in the final and if Ulissi still up there in the final, he'll most likely win the stage.

Once again, it's difficult to pick only one rider as my favorite. Contador, Henao and Sanchez all seem like solid candidates, but I'll give Contador another shot to prove he's ready to win Vuelta Pais Vasco overall.

Favorite: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Pieter Weening / Diego Ulissi

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 3 Preview

After two "semi-flat" stages it's now time for the GC riders to show their ambitions. The last 40 km of the stage includes three categorized climbs and the finish on Alto de la Lejana kicks up with 21% the last 400 meters.

It's a stage for the explosive riders and without any bonus seconds on the line, the pure climbers without a strong time trial - like Igor Antón and Sergio Henao - need to distance their rivals. Euskaltel were out training on the climb a couple of days ago and Igor Antón has already stated he wants to do something great in this race. The finish on Arrate (Stage 4) doesn't really suit him, so if he wants a stage win, this is the stage to win.

Naturally it won't be easy with Alberto Contador and Team Sky in the race. Contador is looking very strong right now and I'm sure he will be eager to take another win in the Basque race. Team Sky have been outstanding so far this year and even though everybody is talking about Richie Porte, I think Sergio Henao will be the man for this stage. The steep gradients suit Henao a lot better than Porte and don't forget Henao took 3^rd place on the steep finish in last year's race.

Movistar's Nairo Quintana has been superb uphill the last month, but I don't think this short finish is good for him. Quintana likes it steep, yes, but not very short like this one. Also, Nairo Quintana wasn't planned to do the race as he were in France doing Tour de France recon with Alejandro Valverde just a few days before he was called up. I think Beñat Intxausti, despite his crash and time loss on stage 1, will be the team leader for Movistar.

For outsiders look to Wout Poels and Tom-Jelte Slagter. Both are very explosive and good on the steep gradients. Poels were great in Tirreno-Adriatico, considering his crash in Tour de France last year, and Slagter showed in Tour Down Under that he has what it takes to beat the elite on a short uphill finish.

It's difficult to pick a winner and I woud like to say both Antón, Henao and Contador, but if I have to pick one I'll have to say Contador. Still, don't be surprised if Euskaltel get their first win of the season on La Lejana.

Winner picks: Alberto Contador
Jokers: Wout Poels / Tom-Jelte Slagter

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 20

Just a few days ago we all thought this would be the stage where the Vuelta would find its final winner. In a way it still is, but definitely not like we expected it to be. Only a total off day or bad luck can rip the red jersey of Alberto Contador's shoulder and I can't see it happen.

Contador will win this year's Vuelta España, like predicted, but the second place is still wide open! Before the stage there are only 46 seconds between Valverde and Purito and even though only the victory seemed to count for Purito I'm sure he will do everything he can to end second instead of third. No disrespect for Alejandro Valverde, but it's no shame to lose a Grand Tour to Alberto Contador. Second place after the Spanish legend is still something you can be proud of.

Therefore I expect Purito to give everything he has left in the tank in order to drop Valverde on Bola del Mundo. So far Purito has taken 55 seconds (without bonus seconds) on Valverde on the previous stages ending with a climb (without taking stage 4 into consideration) but it has never been more than maximum 19 seconds á stage (without bonus seconds) so he really needs to dig deep and probably even win the stage in order to overtake Valverde in the general classification. Not an easy task, but never the less a task I think Purito can manage. Mentally it won't be easy but there are no doubts  that the last climb suits Purito very well with parts of 23% within the last kilometer.

Bola del Mundo - Click for larger view!

A few days ago I thought Purito might let Contador take this stage on home soil near Madrid, but after the epic stage to Fuente Dé the tables have turned. It would be an amazing finish to this Vuelta for Alberto Contador if he wins on Bola del Mundo in the red jersey - and I’m sure he will try hard to do so - but I also  but I think it will be difficult to drop Purito if the Katusha captain can put his mind to take the 2nd place overall instead of winning. No matter what this is a stage you need to watch live!

As you can see I think this will be a fight between the best riders and therefore it's very difficult to pick a joker. I really think Igor Antón will try something on a climb that suits him perfectly but it won't be easy to get away as Rabobank will work hard in order to protect their 6th and 7th place overall. I agreed with Felix than any rider outside of the top3 can be seen as a joker for this stage the only problem is who to pick? I have a feeling Antón has what it takes to pull it off, but I also have a good eye to Sergio Henao. It seems like Team Sky are giving Uran and Henao green light to try own luck as the podium is out of reach for Chris Froome and if the favorite hesitate a bit Sergio Henao could profit with a strong attack.

With my luck the last couple of days (Tiralongo & Valverde on stage 17 and Degenkolb and Matti on stage 19) it will probably be the one I don’t pick who wins. Anyway I’ll take Antón and hope for the best!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Igor Antón

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Thomas de Gendt

Explanation: Belgian all-rounder Thomas de Gendt came into the race with high hopes but so far has just a couple of breaks and a second place to his name. The 25 year old loves these big stages - just look at his track record with the Stelvio and Ciutu Negru - and he also has the polka dot jersey in his sights. A good day could see de Gendt take the stage and become king of the mountains before riding into the sunset on his belated honeymoon. If so, then his new wife will be a lucky girl... But my favourite for the Bola del Mundo showdown is the man I always tipped to win the entire race: Alberto Contador. His form had been consistently high and he's in the ascendency after that win at Fuente De. He also deserves a second stage scalp in a race he has lit up with his constant attacks. That said, I can envisage a situation where the Big Three mark each other out all the way to the summit and Contador gives the win to Purito or Valverde in a magnanimous display of seigneurial largesse.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

GIRO EXCLUSIVE - Uran hopes for Top10

Team Sky may be build up the team around Mark Cavendish for the sprint stages, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have riders for the overall classification. One of them is Rigoberto Uran, and according to the young Colombian he is ready to fight with the best for a spot in the top10.

“I feel very good right now and I’m ready for this Giro. It’s a very hard and very long Giro and the last week seems to be very tough. I will take it day by day and see what happens but I’m aiming for Top10, no doubts about that!”

To help him in the mountains Rigoberto Uran can count on help from Sergio Luis Henao. The rest of the team is all about Mark Cavendish.