World Championship - Team Time Trial Preview & Favorites

World Championship Team Time Trial in Florence.
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The World Championship week in Florence starts out with a team time trial this Sunday. Last year Omega Pharma Quickstep won in front of BMC and GreenEdge and this time I expect the same three teams to make the podium. However, Team Sky has the manpower to change a repetition of the 2012-podium.

Unlike last year’s edition, this course is - except for a short climb of 4:30 min in the beginning - completely flat. This combined with a distance of 57.2 km means it’s all about the speed.

Therefore, we can expect the teams with big powerhouses to fight for the win. There are long and flat sections without any turns and guys like Tony Martin, Taylor Phinney, Fabian Cancellara and Luke Durbridge can really make a difference here. The last 10 km are a very technical. There are at least 10 sharp corners in this part and you can lose and gain a lot of time in these corners. It's very important not to panic in the corners. The last time check is right before the technical part so it's not certain the ranking here will be the same as at finish.

Looking at the teams this year, it’s clear that Omega Pharma Quickstep is the big favorite. The Belgian team sends five (Martin, Velits, Chavanel, Terpstra & Vandewalle) of the six winning riders from last year. Only change is Tom Boonen who is being replaced by season sensation Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole has been in Top8 in all of the six individual time trials he’s been doing this year! While other teams may not look as strong as last year, OPQS is actually even better this time. I clearly expect the team to repeat their winning performance from 2012.

BMC came very close to winning last year but this time, I think they will have to fight hard just to get the silver medals. Time trial specialist Marco Pinotti is missing and so are Alessandro Ballan and Philippe Gilbert. Instead, Steve Cummings, Daniel Oss and Michael Schar are joining Taylor Phinney, Tejay Van Garderen and Manuel Quinziato. Both Phinney, Cummings and Schar were part of the BMC team winning the team time trial in Qatar earlier this year. However, BMC hasn’t performed well in the important team time trials the rest of the year and without a key rider like Pinotti, I think a silver medal - if even so - is the best they can get in Florence.

The biggest threat to BMC’s second place is GreenEdge. The Australian team did very well last year, even on a course not suited for their riders’ characteristics. With big engines like Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Jens Mouris and Daryl Impey, GreenEdge will be able to extremely fast on the long flat parts. Add to that Brett Lancaster and Michael Hepburn and you really have a strong team for a fast course. All six riders live in Girona and they have been training together for this discipline the last two weeks. A team time trial is all about working together as one and looking at the riders and their training, I think GreenEdge is the best pick to win this race if something happens to OPQS.

The way I see it, it will be difficult for the rest of the teams to medal against OPQS, GreenEdge and BMC. However, teams like Radioshack, Garmin, Saxo-Tinkoff, Astana and especially Team Sky will all be gunning for the podium as well. Garmin used to be among the best in this discipline but it’s been a while since they have produced a great team time trial. Astana did very well in the Giro (third) and in the Vuelta (first) but without Vincenzo Nibali to lead them, I doubt they will be able to make Top3 this time.

On the last day of the Vuelta, Nicolas Roche said that Saxo-Tinkoff was very eager to do well in Florence. Bjarne Riis has always been very fond of the team time trial and according to Roche, the Danish team aims for a spot on the podium. Christensen, Boaro, Roche, Mørkøv, Sørensen and Tosatto are the six riders for Sunday’s race and it will be interesting to see if they can live up to their own expectations. Personally, I don’t think they will do better than top5 but it wouldn’t be the first time the Danish team surprises in a TTT.

Radioshack is another solid Top5 candidate and on a good day may even Top3. Fabian Cancellara is in excellent shape right now and together with Jesse Sergent, Hayden Roulston, Yaroslav Popovych, Markel Iriza and youngster Bob Jungels, the team should be able to keep a high pace. However, Cancellara’s big goal this year is the road race. He’s the bookmakers’ top favorite for the title and the question is; “how deep will Cancellara dig in the time trials?” None of the other favorites are doing all three races (TTT, ITT & RR) and if Cancellara isn’t pushing it to his limits, he won’t be able to carry the team like he did in the team time trial in the Vuelta last month.

Map of the 57.2 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence. Pay attention to the technical last part of the route.

In recent years, it would be a mistake not to mention Movistar among the candidates. Once again, they have a strong team for this time trial but I doubt they will be able to better than 7^th-10^th place. Rui Costa, Jonathan Castroviejo, Andrey Amador, Jesus Herrada, Ruben Plaza and Eloy Teruel are all good time trialists but as stated in the beginning, this race is all about speed. Had this been a hilly team time trial like the ones we’ve seen in the Giro and the Vuelta in the past, Movistar would have been one of the favorites. However, on a 57.2 km flat course, there are simply other teams with bigger engines.

As of Saturday afternoon Garmin still hasn’t released their final teams yet. Both have the firepower to do very well this Sunday but as mentioned earlier, Garmin hasn’t really been able to deliver a good team time trial on the big scene for a while. Still, judging from the eight pre-selected riders, this may be their strongest team in a long time. No matter which six riders they end up picking, they are all strong on a flat course like this one. The team time trial used to be their specialty and I’m sure Garmin will be eager to show the world they still have what it takes fight for the win against the best teams.  

On paper, Team Sky also has a very strong team. All of their six selected riders (Froome, Porte, Boasson Hagen, Kiryienka, Siutsou & Thomas) did the Tour de France this year and individually they are all great time trialists. Chris Froome is leading the team but just like Fabian Cancellara, Froome's main focus is on the road race next Sunday. Of course, both Froome and Cancellara will be a huge help for their teams but thinking of the road race, they may hold back a little or decide not to take any risks in many sharp corner in the last part of the course.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv - and click here to see the starting order.

Vuelta a España: Stage 1 (TTT) Preview & Favorites

As usually, the Vuelta starts out with a team time trial. This year, the distance is longer than the previous three years and that means we will see much bigger differences in the classification early on.

The teams get to the starting ramp in Vilanova De Arousa by boat and from here the route takes them south towards Sanxenxo. The profile is rather flat - very different from last year - and we can expect the teams with big engines like Omega Pharma Quickstep (Tony Martin) and Radioshack (Fabian Cancellara) to do well. The riders will be enjoying a tailwind for the majority of the route and that too favors the two mentioned teams.

The only technical part of the course is the final two kilometers with a couple of tricky turns but overall, this is not a difficult team time trial.

The map of Stage 1
Click for larger view.

Omega Pharma Quickstep are the defending world champions in this discipline and they have been training hard to defend their title in less than a month in Florence. It’s true they don’t bring all their best time trialists for this Vuelta but with riders like Tony Martin, Kristof Vandewalle, Gianni Meersman and in-shape Zdenek Stybar, they will be very difficult to beat.

The way I see it, only Radioshack and Astana have a chance of beating OPQS. Despite a strong team, Radioshack never really manage to win these stages. However, with Fabian Cancellara, Ben Hermans, Chris Horner and Markel Irizar they definitely bring a solid team. Horner aims at taking the Red Jersey after the uphill finish on Stage 2 and if that is to happen, Radioshack need to put in a strong performance in this time trial.

Astana hope to give Vincenzo Nibali the best start possible with a win on the first day. To achieve that, they bring strong time trialists like Janez Brajkovic, Jakob Fuglsang, Andriy Grivko, Tanel Kangert and Nibali himself. Astana always do well in the team time trials and even though OPQS is the big favorite, I won’t be surprised if Astana wins this stage.

Movistar won the opening stage last year but on a much hillier course. They did well in the Giro d’Italia too but this time they don’t have riders like Alex Dowsett or Jonathan Castroviejo to crank up the speed in the flat parts. They bring a strong team, no doubts about that, but I don’t think it’s strong enough to repeat the impressive win from last year.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff aim at spot close to Top3 but that won’t be easy. They have a couple of solid riders like Roman Kreuziger and Michael Mørkøv but climbers like Rafal Majka, Chris Anker Sørensen and Oliver Zaugg don’t like this discipline. The Danish team may do Top5 but I will be surprised to see them in Top3.

Team Sky won the team time trial in the Giro d’Italia and finished third in the Tour de France this year. However, they don’t have riders like Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome or Richie Porte to keep the speed high this time. It’s true that many of the riders are the same who won the TTT in the Giro but without a real specialist I think Top5 is the best they can do.

Starting Order:
NetApp 18:48
GreenEdge 18:52
Argos-Shimano 18:56
BMC 19:00
Caja Rural 19:04
Cofidis 19:08
Vacansoleil-DCM 19:12
Omega Pharma Quickstep 19:16
Lampre 19:20
AG2R 19:24
Team Saxo-Tinkoff 19:28
Lotto-Belisol 19:32
FDJ 19:36
Team Sky 19:40
Cannondale 19:44
Garmin 19:48
Euskaltel 19:52
Belkin 19:56
Radioshack 20:00
Katusha 20:04
Movistar 20:08
Astana 20:12

Eurosport are covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For the opening Stage 1, Laura picks Movistar to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour Exclusive - Jesus Hernandez: “We are ready”’

Contador & Hernandez.
Picture from Twitter with the text:
"Our 3 secrets; work, work & work".

Many have doubted if Alberto Contador will reach his former level of greatness in this year’s Tour de France. The Spaniard hasn’t won any of the stage races he has been riding and so far he’s only got one stage win this season. However, what many tend to forget is that this year the plan has been different. Alberto Contador was mentally drained after his turbulent 2012-season and he needed a longer winter break than usually. Therefore, he started out 2013 three kilos heavier than the preview years, and naturally this has affected his results.

Instead of being close to his best level during the first part of the season - as he usually is - Contador has planned everything around the Tour de France. At Dauphiné he said he was on 75 % and according to his best friend and teammate, Jesus Hernandez, Alberto Contador is now ready to fight for the overall win.

“In general I think the balance is good. We haven’t won [much] but we have been close in all the races and therefore, the balance can’t be bad. Each year is different and the beginnings of the seasons are never the same. We have been working hard in order to arrive in a good condition for the Tour and I think we have achieved that”, Jesus Hernandez tells me.

Looking at the Saxo-Tinkoff team for the Tour, I doubt Alberto Contador has ever had a stronger team to support him. A view shared by Hernandez.

“We come [to the Tour] with a very solid block [of riders] in all areas, very attuned around Alberto. It is indeed a very strong team”, Hernandez says and ads: “The last rider in the mountains will be Kreuziger, who’s very strong. Before that, it’s up to Rogers, Roche and me depending on the stages”.

The two individual time trials in this year’s Tour de France is, without a doubt, in the favor of Chris Froome. Therefore, many have been wondering if Alberto Contador will be strong enough in the mountains to take back the time he will lose against the clock. According to Jesus Hernandez, that’s not an issue.

“[Taking back lost time in the mountains] won’t be a question with Alberto on this best level. In fact, it will be other way around”, Hernandez assures.

Due to Alberto Contador’s “poor” results this year, rumors of Contador not being as strong as usually in his training have surfaced. I asked Jesus Hernandez about these rumors and I think his answer speaks for itself. 

“Come train a few days with him [Contador] and you will see the answer to those rumors”.

Don’t forget to follow Jesus Hernandez on Twitter during the Tour de France @jesushernandez3. 

Giro d’Italia: Stage 2 Preview

The team time trial is the first fight between overall contenders in this year’s Giro d’Italia. Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins will be eager to get an advantage early on, but Astana and Vincenzo Nibali showed in Giro del Trentino that they won’t lose much time. Losing 1 sec per kilometer (as it was in Trentino) is definitely acceptable for Astana and I wouldn’t be surprised if they even do better than that.

It’s a short team time trial of only 17.4 km but it does have some nasty parts, especially towards the end. The last climb kicks up with 7% in the beginning and the final descent is very technical with many turns and a short tunnel heading into the last kilometer. It’s essential to know the course well in order to win this stage and that is also why I don’t pick GreenEdge as my favorite. On paper, the Australian team bring the best time trial squad but for they haven’t had time to train on the course. Had it been a typical flat time trial, they probably would have won anyway but with this undulating route and technical descents, I doubt they will set the best time.

The way I see it, Team Sky should be strong enough to win this team time trial. They won in Trentino without an important rider like Rigoberto Uran and even though the competition is stronger here, they still have a great team. Especially Wiggins and Cataldo will be able to pull hard and knowing Wiggins has to gain as much time as possible in these disciplines, they should be properly motivated too.

Garmin with Ryder Hesjedal are another strong contender for this stage. They won the team time trial last year but are now without Alex Rasmussen and Sebastien Rosseler who did a lot of work back then. Their replacements - David Millar and Thomas Dekker - should be able to do just as well though and a stage Top3 without Garmin will be a big surprise.

My personal joker for this stage is Blanco. People seem to forget about the Dutch team when talking about the contenders for the TTT, but I have a feeling they will surprise and maybe even make Top3. Robert Gesink aims for the overall podium and in order to achieve that, he has to do well against the clock. Gesink has already shown to be strong in the time trials and together with specialists like Clement, Kelderman and Bobridge, Blanco have a very good team for this stage.

I would also like to mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. They took 3^rd place in team time trial last year and bring an even stronger team this time. Manuele Boaro and Mads Christensen have been showing outstanding shape the last weeks and together with Daniele Bennati, they should be able to put in another good performance. The Danish team hope to put Rafal Majka in the Top15 overall and it would be a great confidence boost for the whole team if they do well in this stage.

Favorite: Team Sky

Top3 pick: Garmin

Joker: Blanco

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 2:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 1 Preview

This is the same stage that opened the race last year. It’s only 16,9 km but most of the route is alongside the sea and the wind and the rain could easily be a factor. The weather forecast isn’t very promising but let’s hope all teams get the same conditions - wet or not.

The intermediate time after 7,9 km is right before the more technical part of the route, meaning the fastest team here won’t necessarily win the stage. The teams have been training on the route for a couple of days already and every team with ambitions of winning this stage will know every part of the route down to the smallest detail.

Last year GreenEdge killed the competition and distanced number two (Radioshack) with 17 seconds. This year we have at least three teams with a good chance of winning and naturally GreenEdge are among them again. The Australian team have specialists like Tuft, Mouris, Lancaster and Impey plus riders like Langeveld and Goss who are good in this discipline too. GreenEdge have been training on the course for the past four days and seem to be the big favorite. Still there are two teams with a chance of beating them.

BMC and Omega Pharma-Quickstep both bring very strong teams for this stage. Originally Tony Martin was set to ride Paris-Nice, but in the end he decided to do Tirreno in order to help out the team in this stage and try his luck in the final time trial. Together with Martin, Quickstep have guys like Kwiatkowski, Stybar, Terpstra, Steegmans and Cavendish for the team time trial and they should be able to clock in a top3 time Wednesday afternoon.

Same goes for BMC. Unlike GreenEdge and Quickstep, BMC are extra motivated to do well in team time trial in order give Cadel Evans a good start in the GC. The American team were outstanding in the TTT in Tour of Qatar and that was even without Evans, Hushovd and Quinziato. Personally, I think this will be a fight between BMC and GreenEdge but I wouldn’t count out Quickstep.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff and Radioshack will most likely be the last two teams in the Top5 for this stage and on a good day both of them could make Top3 as well. It all depends on the weather conditions.

With five so strong teams, it’s not very easy to pick a joker but since it’s now a tradition to do so, I’ll say Blanco. The Dutch team have started out the season in a great way - already taking 10 wins - and they do bring a good team for the TTT as well. Bauke Mollema is aiming at the overall classification and I wouldn’t be surprised if they start out Tirreno-Adriatico the same way they have started out the season.

Winnerpick: BMC or GreenEdge

Joker: Blanco

The first team start at 14:45 local time and with three minutes intervals we can expect the last team to finish around 16:10. For live stage coverage check out cyclingfans & steephills.