World Championship - Team Time Trial Preview & Favorites

World Championship Team Time Trial in Florence.
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The World Championship week in Florence starts out with a team time trial this Sunday. Last year Omega Pharma Quickstep won in front of BMC and GreenEdge and this time I expect the same three teams to make the podium. However, Team Sky has the manpower to change a repetition of the 2012-podium.

Unlike last year’s edition, this course is - except for a short climb of 4:30 min in the beginning - completely flat. This combined with a distance of 57.2 km means it’s all about the speed.

Therefore, we can expect the teams with big powerhouses to fight for the win. There are long and flat sections without any turns and guys like Tony Martin, Taylor Phinney, Fabian Cancellara and Luke Durbridge can really make a difference here. The last 10 km are a very technical. There are at least 10 sharp corners in this part and you can lose and gain a lot of time in these corners. It's very important not to panic in the corners. The last time check is right before the technical part so it's not certain the ranking here will be the same as at finish.

Looking at the teams this year, it’s clear that Omega Pharma Quickstep is the big favorite. The Belgian team sends five (Martin, Velits, Chavanel, Terpstra & Vandewalle) of the six winning riders from last year. Only change is Tom Boonen who is being replaced by season sensation Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole has been in Top8 in all of the six individual time trials he’s been doing this year! While other teams may not look as strong as last year, OPQS is actually even better this time. I clearly expect the team to repeat their winning performance from 2012.

BMC came very close to winning last year but this time, I think they will have to fight hard just to get the silver medals. Time trial specialist Marco Pinotti is missing and so are Alessandro Ballan and Philippe Gilbert. Instead, Steve Cummings, Daniel Oss and Michael Schar are joining Taylor Phinney, Tejay Van Garderen and Manuel Quinziato. Both Phinney, Cummings and Schar were part of the BMC team winning the team time trial in Qatar earlier this year. However, BMC hasn’t performed well in the important team time trials the rest of the year and without a key rider like Pinotti, I think a silver medal - if even so - is the best they can get in Florence.

The biggest threat to BMC’s second place is GreenEdge. The Australian team did very well last year, even on a course not suited for their riders’ characteristics. With big engines like Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Jens Mouris and Daryl Impey, GreenEdge will be able to extremely fast on the long flat parts. Add to that Brett Lancaster and Michael Hepburn and you really have a strong team for a fast course. All six riders live in Girona and they have been training together for this discipline the last two weeks. A team time trial is all about working together as one and looking at the riders and their training, I think GreenEdge is the best pick to win this race if something happens to OPQS.

The way I see it, it will be difficult for the rest of the teams to medal against OPQS, GreenEdge and BMC. However, teams like Radioshack, Garmin, Saxo-Tinkoff, Astana and especially Team Sky will all be gunning for the podium as well. Garmin used to be among the best in this discipline but it’s been a while since they have produced a great team time trial. Astana did very well in the Giro (third) and in the Vuelta (first) but without Vincenzo Nibali to lead them, I doubt they will be able to make Top3 this time.

On the last day of the Vuelta, Nicolas Roche said that Saxo-Tinkoff was very eager to do well in Florence. Bjarne Riis has always been very fond of the team time trial and according to Roche, the Danish team aims for a spot on the podium. Christensen, Boaro, Roche, Mørkøv, Sørensen and Tosatto are the six riders for Sunday’s race and it will be interesting to see if they can live up to their own expectations. Personally, I don’t think they will do better than top5 but it wouldn’t be the first time the Danish team surprises in a TTT.

Radioshack is another solid Top5 candidate and on a good day may even Top3. Fabian Cancellara is in excellent shape right now and together with Jesse Sergent, Hayden Roulston, Yaroslav Popovych, Markel Iriza and youngster Bob Jungels, the team should be able to keep a high pace. However, Cancellara’s big goal this year is the road race. He’s the bookmakers’ top favorite for the title and the question is; “how deep will Cancellara dig in the time trials?” None of the other favorites are doing all three races (TTT, ITT & RR) and if Cancellara isn’t pushing it to his limits, he won’t be able to carry the team like he did in the team time trial in the Vuelta last month.

Map of the 57.2 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence. Pay attention to the technical last part of the route.

In recent years, it would be a mistake not to mention Movistar among the candidates. Once again, they have a strong team for this time trial but I doubt they will be able to better than 7^th-10^th place. Rui Costa, Jonathan Castroviejo, Andrey Amador, Jesus Herrada, Ruben Plaza and Eloy Teruel are all good time trialists but as stated in the beginning, this race is all about speed. Had this been a hilly team time trial like the ones we’ve seen in the Giro and the Vuelta in the past, Movistar would have been one of the favorites. However, on a 57.2 km flat course, there are simply other teams with bigger engines.

As of Saturday afternoon Garmin still hasn’t released their final teams yet. Both have the firepower to do very well this Sunday but as mentioned earlier, Garmin hasn’t really been able to deliver a good team time trial on the big scene for a while. Still, judging from the eight pre-selected riders, this may be their strongest team in a long time. No matter which six riders they end up picking, they are all strong on a flat course like this one. The team time trial used to be their specialty and I’m sure Garmin will be eager to show the world they still have what it takes fight for the win against the best teams.  

On paper, Team Sky also has a very strong team. All of their six selected riders (Froome, Porte, Boasson Hagen, Kiryienka, Siutsou & Thomas) did the Tour de France this year and individually they are all great time trialists. Chris Froome is leading the team but just like Fabian Cancellara, Froome's main focus is on the road race next Sunday. Of course, both Froome and Cancellara will be a huge help for their teams but thinking of the road race, they may hold back a little or decide not to take any risks in many sharp corner in the last part of the course.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv - and click here to see the starting order.

Vuelta a España 2013 - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the third and final Grand Tour of the season. This year’s Vuelta a España is a real climbers delight with no less than 12 stages finishing uphill. The favorites are many and there are no doubts that this is the most open of the three Grand Tours this year.

Once again, the race starts out with a team time trial but compared to the last couple of years, the time differences will be much bigger this time. We have an uphill finish already on the second day and this means you can’t afford to start out too far off your game. The first sprint stage isn’t due until Stage 5 and we can expect relatively big time differences in the overall classification already at this point. However, it’s nothing compared to the last week. Six out of the last eight stages finish on the top of a climb and with Angliru on the penultimate day, nothing is certain before the final stage to Madrid.

For this year’s Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, it was pretty easy picking out the few big favorites. Without Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali had no real competition in the Giro and since Alberto Contador wasn’t as strong as usually in the Tour, Chris Froome wasn’t really threatened at any point in the Tour. This Vuelta, however, is wide open. Vincenzo Nibali is my personal favorite for the overall win but it won’t be easy to repeat his 2010-performance. I expect Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez, Ivan Basso, Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez to fight for the Red Jersey and I’m sure a we will see a couple of outsiders in the mix as well.

I don’t remember a Grand Tour with so many strong riders fighting for Top10. Just by a quick glans of the start list, I see at least 25 riders with an actual chance of finishing within the ten first. Veterans like Chris Horner and Michele Scarponi both start out the Vuelta with podium ambitions and even though I doubt it will happen, I won’t rule them out as possible Top5 in Madrid.

These are the 21 stages of this year's Vuelta a España. 

Another very interesting ‘veteran’ is Ivan Basso. This season has been a nightmare for former Giro d’Italia winner and he’s now hoping to make it all right with a good performance in the Vuelta. Usually you never see Ivan Basso until it really counts. This year Chris Froome won everything leading up the Tour. Basso's preparation is completely different. He knows how to prepare in his own way and he always manages to deliver when it’s time. Still, in Tour of Poland Basso finished fifth on the first mountain stage and without doing much more in the race, he took 8^th place overall. In Vuelta a Burgos he decided to test himself on the final mountain stage and he looked very strong when he dropped Vincenzo Nibali to finish third on Lagunas de Neila. Ivan Basso is not great on the short steep finishes but this Vuelta is lot more than that, and I’m sure Basso will make a great race and finish in the top.

Originally, I had Carlos Betancur down for a podium place but the Colombian climber has been sick recently and therefore hasn’t been able to prepare the way he wanted. Also, he hasn’t raced since the Giro. For Betancur, the World Champions in Italy is the big goal for this second part of the season. He may not start out this Vuelta in great shape but I’m sure he will be flying by the end of the race. It could easily be enough to make Top10 overall but I doubt he’ll be a player for the podium. Another strong GC rider from Ag2r is Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian climber finished 7^th overall in Tour of Poland and I expect him do very well in this Vuelta.

A Colombian rider has finished 2^nd overall in the first two Grand Tours of 2013 and in case Carlos Betancur isn’t ready, it’s up to Sergio Henao to keep up the tradition. Henao started out this year in a very strong way by winning the mountain stage in Volta ao Algarve. He then went on to win a stage in Vuelta Pais Vasco, where he finished 3^rd overall, before taking second place in Flèche Wallone. As expected, he faded in the end of the Giro but recently he looked strong in Tour of Poland with a 5^th place overall. Last year, Sergio Henao finished 14^th in the Vuelta after helping out team leader Chris Froome. This year, Henao is the leader and he has a very strong team to support him. Dario Cataldo - who I think will do very well in this race - and Rigoberto Uran will be at his service in the mountains. Team Sky have finished 2^nd (Uran, Giro) and 1^st (Froome, Tour) in the last two Grand Tours and they are eager to continue that streak. Both Purito and Valverde had to dig deep in the Tour de France and in case they end up paying for that in the final week of the Vuelta, Henao and others will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

This year’s Vuelta will be the last one with Euskaltel-Euskadi on the start list. The orange color of the Basque team will be dearly missed in the mountains but not just yet. With Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Nieve, Igor Antón and Mikel Landa among the nine starters, Euskaltel show they are ready to fight. The goal is to put Samuel Sanchez on the final podium in Madrid and it won’t be a surprise if they succeed. Sanchez is experienced and already knows what it takes to make Top3 in the Vuelta. He should be able to gain some time on his rivals in the individual time trial and if he hits his top level, he won’t be easy to drop in the mountains either.

Before I end, I’ll quickly mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. The Danish team has a strong line up with Roman Kreuziger, Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. When announcing the team, DS Tristan Hoffman said he saw Kreuziger as the natural leader. However, the Czech rider himself says he won’t be targeting the overall classification. Kreuziger has already had a long and very successful season and he’s now focusing on the World Champions. Instead of going for the GC, Kreuziger will aim at a stage win and to help out Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. Especially Roche is eager to perform well. The Irishman has been aiming at the Vuelta the whole season and after dropping a few kilos, he’s now not afraid of talking about Top5 overall. It will be interesting to see if he can live up to his own expectations.  

The map of this year's Vuelta a España starting in Galicia and finishing in Madrid after 21 stages.

As always, I have a few jokers for you as well. First up is David Arroyo. After more than 10 years on Movistar (and its former names), Arroyo moved to the little Spanish team, Caja Rural for this season. He didn’t do much to show his name in the first part of the year but lately he’s been getting better and better. He came close to winning Vuelta a Burgos overall a few weeks ago and he looked very strong in the mountains. Only super climber Nairo Quintana could distance Arroyo uphill on the final day and now the Spaniard hopes to shine in the Vuelta. David Arroyo surprised everyone when he finished second overall in the Giro d’Italia three years ago. I doubt he can repeat that performance this time but I definitely see him as a strong Top10 candidate. Maybe even more if everything goes his way again.

My second joker for the overall classification is Tomasz Marczynski. It’s a been a great year for Polish cycling and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues in the Vuelta. Last year, Marczynski made a few mistakes in the last week of the race but still managed to finish 13^th overall. There are a lot more candidates this year but I still think Marczynski has what it takes to make Top10. Vacansoleil-DCM are desperately searching for a new sponsor for next year and they bring their strongest team possible to the Vuelta. Riders like Wout Poels, Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra could all lead the team but according to my information, the Dutch team is putting their faith in Tomasz Marczynski.

Other good jokers for the overall classification are Movistar’s three super domestiques; Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi & Beñat Intxausti. Sames goes for Lampre’s [future super] climber Winner Anacona and Team NetApp’s Leopold König.

There are about six stages for the sprinters is this year’s Vuelta a España. Still, we don’t have any super sprinters starting the race. Tyler Farrar will have a unique opportunity to regain status as a “top sprinter” without the competition of Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Sagan etc. etc. Farrar’s rivals will be Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, Theo Bos, Leigh Howard and the youngsters Barry Markus, Michael Matthews and Adrien Petit. Personally, I expect a lot from Barry Markus. He has recently signed a deal with Team Belkin for 2014 saying he wants to learn from Theo Bos. However, in my opinion, he will already show that he is a level above Bos in this Vuelta.

In the beginning, I wrote I saw at least 25 riders with a chance of making Top10 in this race. I’ll leave you with the list of those riders. The order is irrelevant.

Nibali	Majka
Valverde	Arroyo
Purito	Mollema
Basso	Cataldo
Henao	Capecchi
Sanchez	Intxausti
Betancur	Moreno x2
Horner	Zubeldia
Pozzovivo	Marczynski
Roche	Ten Dam
Scarponi	Uran
Pinot	Dan Martin
Landa	De Clercq
Nieve Vanendert	Antón De Gendt

I will be publishing daily Stage Previews during the race. Each preview will be online the evening before the stage starts. For live coverage of Vuelta a España 2013 go to steephill.tv

Tour de France 2013: Preview & Favorites

The Tour de France route 2013 - click for larger view.

Many people criticized last year’s Tour de France of being ’too boring’. Looking at start list, I doubt that will be the case this year.

It’s true that Team Sky once again have the big favorite but the compared to last year, there are a lot more riders able to fight for the final podium.

This year’s race includes 21 stages. I have divided them into the following categories:

6 x “100 % sprint”.

2-3 x “sprint in a reduced peloton”.

3 x time trials; 2 ITT and 1 TTT.

4 x mountain top finish

2 x mountain downhill finish

3-4 x hilly/breakaway

Both of the individual time trials are short this year (33 km & 32 km) and with an extremely hard last week (one hilly ITT and three mountain stages in the Alps), it’s safe to say that the pure climbers have a good chance of succeeding this year. I have a good feeling about the first five riders in the general classification. Still, I only see two riders with a solid chance of winning Tour de France overall. My view on the riders’ chances can be categorized like this (the order is irrelevant):

Winner:	Podium:
Chris Froome	Richie Porte
Alberto Contador	Alejandro Valverde
	Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
Top5:	Top10:
Cadel Evans	Thibaut Pinot
Tejay van Garderen	Jakob Fuglsang
Jurgen Van den Broeck	Bauke Mollema
Ryder Hesjedal	Daniel Navarro
Nairo Quintana	Jean-Christophe Peraud
	Haimar Zubeldia
Top20:	Rein Taaramae
Rui Costa	Pierre Rolland
Damiano Cunego	Dan Martin
Andy Schleck
Wout Poels
Andrey Amador
Roman Kreuziger
Janez Brajkovic
Robert Gesink
Daniel Moreno
Arnold Jeannesson
Laurens Ten Dam
Igor Antón
Thomas De Gendt
Michal Kwiatkowski
Mikel Nieve Andrew Talansky

Chris Froome has been the best stage race rider this year and anything but a top performance from him in the Tour will be a big surprise. He is one of the best time trialists in the race and despite the short distances; he will be able to take a lot of times on this rivals against the clock. Had it been Wiggins, I would expect the climbers to take back the time in the mountains but Chris Froome will be very difficult to drop uphill. He was the strongest rider in the mountains in the last year’s Tour de France and he only seems to be stronger this year. Furthermore, he has Richie Porte to help him. 

Porte has taken a big step up the ladder this season with his overall win in Paris-Nice and his second place (behind Froome) in Dauphiné. Porte’s next big individual target is the Giro d’Italia 2014 but that doesn’t stop him from talking about a podium spot in this year’s Tour. The time trials are definitely in Porte’s favor but I don’t think Team Sky can make a double (1^st & 2^nd) like last year. Still, third place overall doesn’t seem unlikely. It all depends on how strong Froome is in the last week. If he gets isolated early, naturally he’ll have to use Porte early as well. If not, Team Sky probably end with two riders on the podium again this year.

Many are questioning Alberto Contador’s chances. This year he hasn’t been as strong as earlier but what people tend to forget is that this has all been part of a bigger plan. Read more about that here and see what his teammate Jesus Hernandez says about Contador's chances. It's also important to remember that Contador's results haven't been bad at all. He was 4^th overall in San Luis, 2^nd overall in Oman, 3^rd overall in Tirreno, 5^th overall Pais Vasco and 10^th overall in Dauphiné. Contador said he was only on 75 % in Dauphiné and I think he would have won the final stage had he not waited for Michael Rogers. Many would probably have a different view on Contador’s chances had he won that last stage and I guess that’s why so many don’t think he stands a chance against Chris Froome. Personally, I think it will be a close fight between Froome and Contador but it all depends on how much time Contador loses to Froome in the time trials.

As my list reveals I expect Valverde & Purito to be fighting for a spot on the final podium. This year’s route is as perfect as it gets for Purito. The time trials are short and the final one is very hilly. He will probably lose about four minutes to Froome against the clock but he has a chance of taking some of it back in the mountains and in the stages ending downhill. Few - if any - in the professional peloton can match Purito’s kick uphill and I won’t be surprised if he takes 10-15 seconds on Froome (thanks to late attacks close to the line) in a couple of the uphill finishes. Purito is also very good on the descents and knowing he needs to take back time, he should embrace every opportunity he gets. The most important thing for Purito this year is to get the overall place “he deserves”. Most likely he feels that he should have won both the Giro and the Vuelta last year and therefore he now hopes to end where he deserves. 2^nd or 8^th is not ‘that’ important it seems - as long as it matches his performance.

Alejandro Valverde has one of the strongest teams in the race to support him this year but that doesn’t help him much in the time trials. I think Movistar will be very close to Team Sky in the team time trial but in the two individual ones, Valverde will lose time. Therefore, he too needs to attack. His big goal is a spot on the podium in Paris and with super domestiques like Quintana and Rui Costa (and Amador) he can’t complain about the support. I doubt Valverde can drop Contador, Froome and Purito uphill but he will be able to drop many of the other contenders with help from his team and especially Nairo Quintana.

Stage 15, 18, 19 & 20.
Click for larger view.

The Colombian super climber could very well aim at Top5 himself this year but he knows the time is not right. He is still young and this year everything is build up around Valverde. Quintana has been preparing himself for the Tour home in Colombia for the last two months. Contrary to many of the Tour riders, he will arrive to Corsica without any recent race competition in his legs and I won’t be surprised if he loses time in the first week. That being said, don’t be surprised either if Quintana is fighting with Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen for the white jersey in the last week. The final week is so extremely hard this year and anything can happen. A couple of lost minutes from the first week is nothing compared to final days in the Alps.

Before the Giro d’Italia started this year, I doubted Cadel Evans chances of success, what a mistake! The Australian veteran had been talking about peaking in the Tour the whole season and therefore I couldn’t see him dig deep in the Giro. Still, he managed to finish third overall. 

The Giro was very hard this year though, despite the cancelled climbs, and once again I now doubt Evans’ chances. Maybe it’s a mistake but is it really possible - in modern cycling - to do Top3 in the Giro and Top3 in the Tour the same year? Especially with two such hard routes? Time will tell. 

BMC also have Tejay van Garderen to play but according to the American, he’s only here to help his captain. This is most likely Cadel Evans' last chance to lead a team in the Tour - aiming at the GC - and I think the team really want to back him up. Van Garderen still has about 10 years ahead of him on top level and sacrificing one year - and still doing well in the GC - shouldn't really be a big issue for him. 

There are many [equally] strong riders fighting for the Top10 places this year and instead of going through all of them (see my list above for that matter), I’ll leave you with a couple of jokers. First one is Daniel Navarro. After being one of Contador’s faithful helpers for many years, Navarro now has a chance to show his own potential. Saxo-Tinkoff didn’t want to keep Navarro at his current salary and when Cofidis were ready to make him captain, the choice wasn’t really that tough for the Spanish climber. So far it’s been a great match. Daniel Navarro finished 12^th overall in Paris-Nice, 16^th overall in Catalunya and latest 5^th overall in Dauphiné where he were among the strongest uphill.  Originally the plan for the Tour was to aim at a stage win but with the impressive performances in Dauphiné, Cofidis & Navarro now aim at the overall classification instead. The French team also have Rein Taaramae for the GC and together with Jerome Coppel and Christophe Le Mevel they have a very strong team to support Navarro. In fact, Cofidis are my outsider for the Team Classification this year.

I also expect a strong performance from Andrey Amador. He’s probably only ranked fourth in the Movistar team for this Tour de France but I think we will see a lot of him, especially in the third week. Amador is an excellent climber and like [teammate] Quintana, he’s been preparing himself at home in the mountains. The Irazú volcano [3500 meters above sea level] in Costa Rica is where Amador has been training and he showed in Tour de Suisse that he’s ready with a strong performance in the final time trial. In the Tour de France Andrey Amador hopes to hit a morning breakaway and take a stage win like he did in the Giro d’Italia last year. Naturally, helping Valverde is the number one priority but it can also be a tactical advantage for Movistar to have Amador in a breakaway. Contrary to many other climbers Amador is also very good against the clock which will help Movistar in the team time trial. I expect them to make Top3 that day.

Before I end this Preview, let's take a look at the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan was my big favorite last year and he turned out to be even stronger than expected. This year, he’s once again the favorite but if Mark Cavendish is back on his top level, it will be a close fight. I see at least six “sure” sprint stages and even though Sagan is fast, he’s not as fast as Cavendish, Greipel & Kittel. There are more points up for grab in the flat stages. That means if Cavendish wins four of five stages without Sagan making Top3, he will get a good advantage. Sagan will be in the mix some days where Cavendish can’t keep up though. Still, I think it will be very close this year. Also, both Sagan and Cavendish have high hopes of wearing the Yellow Jersey early in the race this year. Therefore, what will end as a fight for green most likely will start out as a fight for yellow!

Many people ask me about my picks for the four jerseys. I think both the Polka Dot Jersey and the White Jersey are very tough to call this year but if I had to, these would be my picks:

Yellow: Chris Froome
Green: Peter Sagan
Polka Dot: Damiano Cunego / or an Euskaltel rider
White: Nairo Quintana
---------
Team GC: Movistar

Again this year, there will be daily Stage Previews during the Tour. I know many of you would like them online early but I simply don't have time to publish them before 21:00 - 22:00 CET. 

The stages of this year's Tour de France are set to finish around 17:00 / 17:30 CET. If you find yourself without a TV, go to steephill.tv for live streams.

Tour de Suisse 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Tour de Suisse 2013 / 8-16 June.

While Critérium du Dauphiné still is in its final face in France, the second Tour de France warm-up race, Tour de Suisse, is just about to start. 

The big favorites for the Tour are riding in Dauphine this year but that doesn’t mean we won’t get a great race to see in Switzerland. With three mountain stages, two individual time trials and four undulating sprint stages; every day will be important for the overall classification.

Unfortunately, there are already bad news. Stage 2 has been modified because of bad weather in the mountains and even though the final climb still stands, the hard start of the stage has been changed.

Looking at the start list I see at least five riders with a chance of winning Tour de Suisse overall. Tejay van Garderen, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, Ryder Hesjedal and Thibaut Pinot are all suited for the nine stages in this year’s edition. Especially TJ and Rui Costa will have an advantage with the two time trials.

Rui Costa won the race overall last year after winning the first stage uphill to Verbier. The strong Portuguese rider was under attack from every side in the final stages but thanks to teammate Alejandro Valverde, he managed to pull off the biggest win of his career. This year Rui Costa is back to defend his title and prove last year wasn’t one-time-thing. He won’t have Valverde to help him but riders like Amador, Karpets and Visconti (winner of two stages in the Giro d’Italia) should be enough. Rui Costa finished 3^rd overall in Tour de Romandie and I think he will make podium again in Switzerland this time. He’s strong uphill and downhill and will beat most of the other GC contenders in the final time trial.

The biggest threat to Rui Costa is Tejay van Garderen. The young American just won Tour of California last month and is obviously in great shape. Cadel Evans wants to lead BMC in the Tour this year but after a tough Giro d’Italia, I have my doubts if he will be strong enough. TJ turned out to be the strongest of the two riders last year and if he puts in another strong performance here, the BMC team will have to think hard about their pick for designated Tour captain. TJ isn’t the best climber in the race but he is strong enough to resist and stay close to the leader before the final time trial. It’s not a flat time trial this year though. The last 10 km are uphill with an average gradient of 9% but I don’t think any of the other GC contenders can beat TJ against the clock. There are no bonus seconds in this year’s Tour de Suisse and that means that if TJ can stay close to the favorites in the mountains, he can take back the lost time in the final time trial.

Team Blanco have already landed a new sponsor for the next two and half years (Belkin, starting from the Tour) so the pressure to perform is not as big as earlier. Still, they send a very strong team to Switzerland this year. The team have always done well here and with riders like Mollema, Sanchez, Nordhaug, Kruijswijk & Kelderman, I’m sure they will do something great. Mollema is the man for the general classification and being strong uphill, fast on the line and solid against the clock, I think he will be among the best uphill. Mollema is coming straight from a training camp in Sierra Nevada and even though that some times can result in mixed performances, I think he will be up there.

It’s difficult to rate Ryder Hesjedal. He came to the Giro in the something near the shape of his life but got sick. His legs were great in the beginning of the race but it’s never easy to say how they will respond after three weeks out of competition. Naturally, he is one of the big favorites if he’s ready again but with a mountain stage already on the second day, he can’t afford to start out too far of the pace.

I personally look forward to seeing what Thibaut Pinot has to offer in this race. The French climber showed a bit of his huge potential in last year’s Tour de France and this year he’s back to show more. Pinot is excellent on the hills and despite a somehow disappointing first half of the season, I think he will be gunning for the overall podium in Tour de Suisse. Pinot had high hopes for Tour de Romandie this year but only ended 12^th overall after the race organizers had to modify the big mountain stage. The Frenchman is still without a win this year and I think he will be eager to end that streak on the uphill finish on Stage 2. It’s a hard race and that suits Pinot just fine. His chances are never improved by two time trials but with the final one ending uphill, I think he will have good chances of making podium.

There are a long list of strong riders taking part in this year’s Tour de Suisse and as always in these Tour de France warm-up races we should see a couple of surprises. I think the final Top10 will be something like this:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Rui Costa

3. Bauke Mollema

4. Thibaut Pinot

5. Ryder Hesjedal

6. Peter Velits
7. Damiano Caruso

8. Janez Brajkovic

9. Simon Spilak

10. Diego Ulissi

Knocking on the door to Top10 I see riders like Kangert, Scarponi, Kreuziger, Dan Martin, Peraud, Dombrowski, Antón, De Greef, Monfort, Klöden & Roche. Also, notice that Andy Schleck is on the start list. He has already said he’s not going to win the Tour de France this year but he normally has a good day or two in Tour de Suisse. He may not be able to follow the best on the hills but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him attack from a far a couple of times.

As always, I have a joker for you. This time it’s Andrey Amador. He broke his collarbone - yes, again, third year in a row - when he crashed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege but he’s now ready to take on the second part of the season. It’s difficult to say how he will do without racing for almost two months but I have a feeling he will be up for it. The Costa Rican showed his great climbing legs in last year’s Giro d’Itlaia and did very well in Tirreno-Adriatico this year. He finished 8^th overall in the Italian stage race thanks to a surprisingly good time trial on the final day. Amador will start out this race as helper for Rui Costa but if he’s feeling good, I don’t see why Movistar shouldn’t end up with two riders in Top10 overall. Andrey Amador is also set to ride the Tour in support of Alejandro Valverde and he needs to show the team that he is up for the task.

Another good joker is Cameron Meyer. He's been doing better and better overall in the stage races the last years and the two time trials definitely favors the Australian. GreenEdge don't really have a team to support him in the mountains and that can be a problem. Still, I think he will be able to put in a great performance and end near Top10.

Contrary to Dauphiné, the stages in Tour de Suisse start rather late every day. That means the first rider won’t cross the finishing line until 18:30-19:00 CET. The two time trials end earlier though. Stage 1 around 16:45 and Stage 9 around 17:45.

For live coverage during the race check out steephill.tv.

Giro d’Italia 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Let it be said right away; there are two big favorites for this race and then a handful of riders fighting for the last step on the podium. The first 8 stages include two difficult time trials - one TTT and one ITT - and from this point on it will be everybody against Bradley Wiggins.

Last year’s Tour de France winner is expected to destroy the rest of the peloton on the 54.8 (!) undulating kilometers against the clock on stage 8 and I doubt Wiggins will let Maglia Rosa leave his shoulder after this day.

The last week of the Giro is always extremely hard and this year is no difference with five mountain top finishes, one of these a mountain time trial with just three days to go. The sprinters probably won’t have more than four or five days to win this year and with 20 bonus seconds to the stage winner every day (except for the time trials), I doubt we will see many breakaways making it in the mountains. This is Bradley Wiggins’ race to lose and Vincenzo Nibali, Ryder Hesjedal, Michele Scarponi, Robert Gesink and Samuel Sanchez all have to attack and take as many bonus seconds as possible.

On paper, there are plenty of opportunities to attack Bradley Wiggins in the mountains but Team Sky are not messing around. Rigoberto Uran, Sergio Henao and Dario Cataldo could lead many teams in this race, but they are all committed to work hard for Wiggins. Team Sky showed in the Tour de France last year, that they have what it takes to slowly kill the competition and drain the rest of the favorites for energy with a hard steady pace. The small and explosive climbers may be able to distance Wiggins and his team in the big mountains, but the time differences won’t be a big as the ones in the time trials. In the past, Bradley Wiggins had problems on the steep climbs but he has been working hard on that this year in order to be ready for the Giro. He now no longer fears the steep percentages and the way I see it, there is only one rider able to beat Wiggins this year.

Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in the shape of his life heading in to this Giro d’Italia and I expect him and Wiggins to take the first two places on the final podium. Nibali doesn’t have Wiggins raw power in the individual time trials, but Astana do have a strong team for the TTT on stage 2. Nibali lost 2 and 3½ min in the two ITT’s in last year’s Tour de France and I think he will end up losing around 2½ min to Wiggins in the long ITT here. He showed in Giro del Tretino a few weeks ago, that he is getting better on the steep parts, and I think he will surprise a few with some strong attacks when the gradients kick up. There are many “medium” stages in this year’s Giro d’Italia and I think Nibali and the rest of the favorites will take advantage of every opportunity to drop Wiggins if possible. Both Nibali and Wiggins are rock solid and don’t really have off-days. It’s true you can lose the race on just one day, especially in the last week, but I seriously doubt any of these two will go down like that. Nibali is best uphill, Wiggins is best against the clock and unfortunately for Nibali, the time differences will be biggest in ITTs. Still, Nibali is very proud and he never gives up. Don’t count him out until the end of the penultimate stage.

In my preview last year, I only had Ryder Hesjedal down for 8^th place overall and after his impressive win, I think it’s only fair to now put him as the first contender for the last spot on the podium. His season so far has been very similar to the one last year and being two kilos lighter than in 2012, I think Hesjedal will prove that last year wasn’t a one-time thing. I doubt he can drop Nibali uphill or stay close to Wiggins in the time trials, but he now knows that it takes, mentally as well, to win a Grand Tour. Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal have won a Grand Tour within the last couple of years and I doubt any of them will have an off-day in this race. Garmin aren’t nearly as strong as Astana and Team Sky but they showed last year, that it wasn’t a problem. Danielson, Stetina and VandeVelde will be Hesjedal’s last three in the mountains and it should be enough for the strong Canadian.

I told myself last year that I would give Robert Gesink one more chance to prove his abilities as a serious overall contender in a Grand Tour. This is it. Gesink has been called “a future Tour de France winner” for a long time now but he is yet to show he can walk the distance. He’s done Top10 in the Vuelta three times and once Top5 in the Tour, but he always seems to run into bad luck. This year, Robert Gesink has put everything on the Giro d’Italia and despite a mixed start of the season, I do believe Gesink is ready to aim for the podium in this Giro. He came to Tour de Romandie after two weeks training on Teide (Tenerife) and did show some good racing the first days before he took easy in the bad weather with eyes on the Giro. He claims to be in great shape right now and I think Gesink will make Top5 this in this Giro - maybe even podium if everything goes his way. Remember, Blanco still don’t have a sponsor for next season and naturally Gesink and the rest of the team will do everything they can in order to show they are worth sponsoring.

Like Gesink and Hesjedal, Michael Scarponi hasn’t shown much this season. He did however manage to take 3^rd place overall in Volta Catalunya after a sneaky attack on the final stage. He took it easy in Giro del Trentino after a training camp but showed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege (5^th place) that the shape is good. Scarponi was the big favorite last year but couldn’t live up to the expectations and ended 4^th in the overall classification. Scarponi isn’t strong in the time trials but he is rock solid. If he’s named among the favorites you can be sure he will end among the best. He’s has finished in Top4 the last three years in a row - winning in 2011 after Contador got suspended - and I think he will make another Top5 performance this year.  He can rely on strong riders like Niemiec, Serpa and Stortoni in the mountains and like Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal he never has a real off-day. Without the long time trial on stage 8, Scarponi might had have a chance of winning this race overall, but now I think Top5 is the best he can aim for.

The last rider with a solid chance of Top5, in my book, is Samuel Sanchez. Officially, the goal for Euskaltel and Sanchez is a stage win - which will make Sanchez join the club of stage winners in both Giro, Tour and Vuelta - but I wouldn’t be surprised if Samuel Sanchez ends up fighting for a spot on the podium. He’s already been on the podium in the Vuelta a couple of times and - on paper - also in the Tour. Naturally a stage win would be more important than ending 6^th or 10^th overall, but if Sanchez manages to pull off a stage win in the first half of the Giro, he might as well give everything for the GC too.

Stage 20 - The penultimate stage of this year's Giro d'Italia.
The final chance to change to move up in the GC.
Click for larger view.

The way I see it, there are 6-8 riders left fighting for the last four places in Top10 overall. Franco Pellizotti will be eager to show off his Italian Champions jersey on home soil and I expect him do very well in the last week. Beñat Intxausti already showed last year what he can do in the Grand Tours and I think now the time has come for him to lead a team. He’s very strong in time trials and he defends himself just fine on the climbs. Last year, Intxausti said he was aiming for a podium spot in this Giro, but I think a Top10 place is the most realistic result for the Basque rider.

My own personal joker for this Giro d’Italia is Robert Kiserlovski. He moved from Astana to Radioshack before this season in order to get his own chance in the big races, and he has had his eyes on this race ever since. While others dream about the Tour, Kiserlovski dreams about the Giro and he showed in Tour de Romandie that he’s in great shape right now. Kiserlovski’s weak spot is the time trials and that is also why I can’t see him do better than around 10-15 overall. I think he will surprise quite a few in the mountains and with Thiago Machado at his side, he can count on good support uphill. 

I could go on for hours about the rest of the GC riders in this Giro d’Italia, but instead I’ll leave you with this Pre-Top20 for the general classification:

1. Wiggins

2. Nibali

3. Hesjedal

4. Gesink

5. Scarponi

6. Sanchez

7. Pellizotti

8. Intxausti

9. Kiserlovski

10. Betancur (White Jersey winner)

11. Pozzovivo

12. Santambrogio

13. Majka

14. Uran

15. Machado

16. Cataldo

17. Trofimov

18. Pirazzi

19. Serpa

20. Henao

As you can see, Cadel Evans didn’t make my list. To me, it seems like Evans still think he can win the Tour this year and therefore I seriously doubt he will dig deep in this Giro. I expect him to go for a stage win one of the days instead.

Remember, there will be Stage Previews for all the stages this year. Each preview will be posted the evening before the stage and the one for Stage 1 will be most likely already be online Thursday evening or Friday morning. This Preview doesn’t talk about the sprinters in the race, but there will plenty of sprinter-talk in the preview for stage 1 and the remaining bunch sprint stages.

For live race coverage of Giro d’Italia 2013 go to steephill.tv

Tirreno-Adriatico: Preview & Favorites

No offense towards Paris-Nice but this year Tirreno-Adriatico is the race to watch, should you only choose one of them. We have all big Tour de France favorites at the starting line and even though the Tour is far away, this could give us some important signs of what to expect in July.

It doesn't matter if you are a Spanish, Italian, Australian, German, British or African supporter. This race gives you a mix of all the best riders in the world and we get to make history as well. More on that in the preview.

The Stages:

Stage 1 - 16,9 km Team Time Trial. Same as last year.

Stage 2 - 232 km Sprint Stage. First dual between Cavendish & Greipel.

Stage 3 - 190 km Hilly Stage. Time for a break? Difficult to control for the sprinters’ teams.

Stage 4 - 173 km Mountain Stage. Same finish on Prati di Tivo (15 km / 7%) as last year.

Stage 5 - 230 km Hilly stage. Typical steep finish in Chieti.

Stage 6 - 209 Undulating Stage. Looks like a sprint stage but is nothing like it.

Stage 7 - 9,2 km Individual Time Trial. Same as last year.

The Favorites:

Looking at the start list there are at least six or seven riders with a real chance of winning this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. First up is Alberto Contador. This is one of the (very) few stage races Contador hasn’t won yet and he is eager to add Tirreno to his palmares. He wanted to come here and win last year, but ended up sidelined for the most of the season instead. Unlike the last couple of years, Contador is now very focused on not peaking before the Tour. He started out a couple of kilos heavier that normally and that was probably why he couldn’t shake the peloton as he normally does in Tour of Oman. I think Contador will be a lot better already and I would be surprised not to see him on the final podium.

My personal pick for the overall win is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. This year Purito is set to peak in April - not in May like last year - and that means his shape is already very good. He showed in Oman that he’s stronger than the other favorites and with 10 bonus seconds on the line each day, I think Purito can make up for this poor time trial skills by winning in Chieti and probably on Prati di Tivo as well.  Purito is coming to Tirreno with big ambitions of winning the race overall and I doubt the other candidates will be able to drop him at any point.

Chris Froome seems to be preparing himself for the Tour de France the same way Bradley Wiggins did last year. He won Tour of Oman overall and with a strong team to protect him in Tirreno, he will be up there again. Still, it’s important to remember this is a very difficult race to control. Stage 4 is pretty straight forward but stage 5 and 6 are up and down the most of the day and Froome needs to keep a tight leash on Purito if he wants to win his second stage race of the season. Froome should be able to count on a strong time trial the last day, but unless he’s within 10-15 seconds of Purito I doubt it will be enough.

Last year’s winner Vincenzo Nibali will be motivated to defend his title with number 1 on the back, but this year’s field is a lot stronger than last year and I doubt Nibali will be able to drop any of the three mentioned riders above. Astana bring a very strong team to look after him and Nibali and count on support from Tiralongo and Brajkovic in the mountains. Still that doesn’t help much if The Shark isn’t able to drop his rivals. Stage 3 and 6 could be two good opportunities for Nibali to put in a few surprise attacks on the undulating roads, but I’m sure I’m not the only one aware of that.

Cadel Evans started out his season in Tour of Oman and that in a very strong way. He distanced Contador and Nibali on Green Mountain and finished 3^rd overall. Evans won Tirreno in 2011 and he has a super team for the opening TTT to help him get the perfect start. If everything works out perfectly for Evans and BMC on the team time trial, he could have a gap of up to 20-30 seconds on his rivals before Prati di Tivo and then he’ll be difficult to overtake. Evans knows the finish in Chieti very well too and even though I won’t pick him as my personal favorite, I won’t be surprised to see him win overall either.

The way I see it the five mentioned riders are the top favorites for this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Just behind these we’ll find riders like Samuel Sanchez, Bauke Mollema, Chris Horner and Damiano Cunego. All expected to do a great race too. Andy Schleck is here too, so just in case you don’t see him during the race, now you know.

It’s very difficult to point out a joker for top GC result with so many strong riders in the race. Still I would like to mention the young Cannondale talent Damiano Caruso. Caruso has been favorite of mine for quite some years now and he showed his strength last year in the Giro wearing the white jersey while supporting team leader Ivan Basso. This year Caruso will get more responsibility and after a good winter season and a strong training camp on Tenerife last month, he should be ready to try his luck. His main goals are the classics next month, but together with Moreno Moser, Caruso should be able to do well in the GC. Maybe even top10 overall.

For other outsiders look to in-shape Rinaldo Nocentini, Michal Kwiatkowski, Eros Capecchi and Mauro Santambrogio. And don’t forget Spanish climber Sergio Pardilla, riding for MTN-Qhubeka p/b Samsung. The African team are making their World Tour debut in Tirreno-Adriatico and while they may not be among the strongest in the team time trial, they are bringing very good riders in Pardilla and Gerald Ciolek. The German sprinter just won the last stage of Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen last weekend and he’s very eager to challenge Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in the mass sprints. Sergio Pardilla will probably lose time in the two time trials, which minimizes his chancer overall, but he should be able to show off the African team’s colors on Prati di Tivo on stage 4.

The Sprinters:

This is not just a race with all the best GC riders, it’s also the first chance this year to see Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel go head-to-head in a mass sprint. Depending on how the stages evolve, stage 2 could be only opportunity to see the two super stars against each other, but don’t forget we also have Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb, Tyler Farrar, Roberto Ferrari, Thor Hushovd, Francesco Chicchi, Matt Goss, Giacomo Nizzolo, Gerald Ciolek and many more sprinters in the race!

The trophy:

Tirreno-Adriatico is famous for its handcrafted trident shaped Sea Master trophy and it’s always entertaining to watch the trophy arise from the ocean and follow its way to the podium. Stefano Garzelli won the race overall in 2011 and told me afterwards that his son saw the podium ceremony on TV and wonderingly asked his mother: “Mama, where are we supposed to put that trophy?”

Top10

It seems like an impossible task to do, but I will try to make a pre-Top10 of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico anyway. Remember, the first four riders all have an equal chance of winning the race. Here we go:

1. Purito

2. Contador

3. Evans

4. Froome

5. Nibali

6. Mollema

7. Horner

8. Samu

9. Cunego

10. Nocentini

Tour of Qatar: Preview & Favorites

Looking at the start list you may think the Spring Classics are starting early this season. Thanks to the heavy wind and sunny weather, every rider aiming at the cobblestones classics want to be here. The hotels are the best the riders will see during the season and despite the lack of hills - or turns for that matter - Tour of Qatar now counts as an important race for all teams with high hopes in March and April.

There is no need for stage profiles as they are all pancake flat. Five stages in the heavy cross wind expected to end in a sprint plus a team time trial on the second day. Tom Boonen normally owns this race and in his absence we have to look to a couple of other of the big contenders for Paris-Roubaix later this year.

First up is Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky have had a new approach to the season training very hard during the winter and we already saw what that meant when Geraint Thomas showed off in Tour Down Under. It’s not often you see a track rider drop the climbers on 20% as Thomas did in Australia. Edvald Boasson Hagen didn’t seem to hit it off Down Under, but he did put in a good effort on Willunga Hill for Thomas and managed to take third place on the finale stage. The Norwegian wonderboy aims big at the Spring Classics this season and after getting the legs ready Down Under, I think he will be the man to beat in Qatar. Team Sky have a great team for the TTT and if Eddy mingles with the best in the mass sprints as well I can’t really see who should beat him.

Only guy I can think of is Mark Cavendish.  Quickstep are always on top of their game in this race and must be one of the favorites for the TTT as well. Cavendish is not a stranger to Tour of Qatar, but he always seems to have bad luck or get caught in the wind when it counts. Quickstep have guys like Terpstra and Stybar to keep Cavendish safe, but both of those might as well give a go themselves in the challenging weather conditions. If you are looking for a joker for the overall classification, I’ll recommend Niki Terpstra.

No wonder the cross wind plays a
huge factor in Tour of Qatar...

I said we had to look for Paris-Roubaix contender to find the overall winner and I know Mark Cavendish doesn’t fit this category but the next one will. Fabian Cancellara has always been good in Qatar and with a strong team for the TTT and last year in mind, Cancellara will definitely be a marked man. Last year Tom Boonen started his amazing season by winning in Qatar and hungry for revenge Fabian Cancellara might as well do the same and show the world that he is ready for the classics. The race normally splits up many times during the six days and only a few riders know when to be in front as well as Cancellara do. Radioshack need a new beginning after Bruyneel and the best man to give them that is Swiss.

Last one of my top favorites for the overall win is Taylor Phinney. The young American has set Paris-Roubaix as his goal big goal this season and helped by a very strong team and a fast finish on the line, Phinney should be named as one of the main contenders. As many other teams, BMC are sending their Classics riders to Qatar and having Marcus Burghardt, Michael Schär and Greg Van Avermaet to help Phinney stay in front and out of troubles, I think BMC will be one of the controlling teams in this race. Phinney may not have what it takes to beat Cavendish, Guardini or Degenkolb in a sprint finish, but he is consistent and fast and says he’s coming into the race “strong and confident”.

For what concerns the sprint field this may not be as great as in Tour Down Under, but with names like Mark Cavendish, John Degenkolb, Andrea Guardini, Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani on the start list, it should be five very interesting days. Mark Cavendish showed in Argentina that he is ready to win early this season when he won the first stage of Tour San Luis and I expect him to take the first stage in Qatar as well. Andre Greipel turned out to be a level - or two - above everybody else in Australia and I’m certain Cavendish is eager to show he’s up there too.

There aren't many spectators in the dessert for Tour of Qatar
and it wouldn't be a lie to say most of them aren't human.

Andrea Guardini didn’t really hit it off in Tour Down Under and even though he may not be one of the best in the cross wind, he should be able to try his luck in a couple of stages. If he manages to stick to the right wheel in the final, he could be the best pick to beat Cavendish.

If not Guardini then John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano have always aimed at getting ‘the best leadout train in the world’ and they showed last year what they are capable of with Marcel Kittel and Degenkolb. Yet it all went wrong in Tour Down Under. Not a single day did they manage to time it well so you can be sure they too are eager to get started. John Degenkolb was outstanding in the Vuelta last year and without Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano could very well be the leading team in the sprints.

For other fast guys look to Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Heinrich Haussler, Kenny Van Hummel, Yauheni Hutarovich and Sacha Modolo. Especially Modolo, who showed to be very fast in Argentina.

That is for me. As always I will leave you with my pre-top10 for the overall classification.

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen

2. Fabian Cancellara

3. Taylor Phinney

4. Niki Terpstra

5. Mark Cavendish (winner pick if he stays up front in the cross wind)

6. Greg Van Avermaet

7. Juan-Antonio Flecha

8. Geraint Thomas

9. Heinrich Haussler

10. Alexander Kristoff

For stage previews, winnerpicks and jokers make sure to follow me on Twitter @mrconde