Tour de France: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

Christophe Riblon did what he does best and took an impressive stage win after a long breakaway in the mountains. Stage 19 doesn’t finish uphill but it will be just as hard for the riders.

The Route

We are in the end of the third week and everybody is already on his limits. Add to that an extremely tough uphill time trial and double up on Alpe d’Huez the days before. These 204.5 km will feel like forever for the riders and it all starts out with two HC climbs. Bon appetite!

There are 21.6 km to the top of Col du Glandon and due to a couple of small descents, the average gradient is “only” 5.1 %. There are steep parts of 11 % in the middle and after a long part of 5 %, the climb kicks up with 8 % near the top. The first rider over the top gets 25 points for the KOM Jersey and with no less than 75 points up for grabs today, this is a very important day for the riders targeting that competition. Chris Froome leads the competition in front of Nairo Quintana and since they both will get points on Saturday’s uphill finish, riders like Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland really need to attack from a far if they want to win the jersey.

After the descent from Col du Glandon, there are just 10 km to the next HC climb starts. Col de Madeleine is feared by many and with its 19.2 km of 7.9 %,it’s not difficult to understand why. There are still 121 km to go from the top of Madeleine and we will most likely see a breakaway get a good gap at this point.

The Finish

The last 70 km include three climbs in a row. First up is Col de Tamié (8.6 km / avg. 6.2 %) and after that it’s time for the steep Col de l’Épine with an average of 7.3 % and parts over 10 % near the top. The riders stay on a plateau for about 10 km after reaching the top of Col de l’Épine and after a short descent, they face the final climb of the day. Col de la Croix Fry is 11.3 km and has an average gradient of 7 %. There are steep parts halfway through to the top and we should see the favorites attack each other on this climb.

From the top of Col de la Croix Fry there are just 13 km to go and with only a few tricky corners on the descent, we can expect a fast finish. As of Thursday evening, there are 50 % chance of rain during the stage and that could spice up things a bit. The Tour had a similar stage finish in 2004 when Lance Armstrong tried to get teammate Floyd Landis to win. Landis didn’t manage to get away on the descent and in the end Armstrong outsprinted Andreas Klöden to take the stage win.

The final 70 km of Stage 19 - Click for larger view.

The Favorites

As hoped for in my Preview for stage 18, Saxo-Tinkoff tried to make a masterpiece. They failed however and now they have to focus on keeping their podium spot instead of trying to win the Tour. It’s not like Alberto Contador not to aim for the overall win and even though he may not care if he ends 2^nd or 10^th, I bet his team does. I personally doubt Saxo-Tinkoff will try to open up the race from afar on this stage but with Contador you never know.

I didn’t mention Purito among my favorites for Alpe d’Huez since I was waiting to play him as my favorite for this stage. Purito had two big goals for this first part of the season; Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Tour de France. He managed to time his condition perfectly for LBL but in a sprint against Dan Martin he couldn’t do better than second place. Ever since April all focus has been on the Tour and trying to peak in the third week. So far, everything has gone according to the plan and Purito is now just 26 seconds from the podium. In his preparation for the Tour, Purito has been training on this stage and tomorrow’s stage and he knows exactly what to expect. He best chance of making podium is to drop Contador and Kreuziger - I doubt he can handle Quintana - and to do that he needs to put in a couple of strong attacks on Col de la Croix Fry. 

Teammate Dani Moreno is also peaking right now and I expect a big show from Katusha in the last days in the Alps. Purito’s biggest rival for the stage win is Alejandro Valverde but according to Valverde, Movistar are now all-in for Nairo Quintana and his podium place. In case Alberto Contador has another bad day, I think it will only be Purito, Froome and Quintana in front (among the favorites) over the top of Col de la Croix Fry and if they can make it to the finishing line, Purito should be able to outsprint Quintana. Froome will happy just to keep the yellow jersey.

The Jokers

I mentioned in the beginning that this is an important stage for the riders still hoping to win the KOM Jersey. Mikel Nieve is fourth in that competition right now, 41 points behind Chris Froome, but if Nieve is first man over the two first climbs, he will take the jersey - for now. The strong Basque climber is 15^th overall, 24:13 minutes down, and he’s not a threat for the Top10 riders should he get into the morning breakaway. Euskaltel are in desperate need of a new sponsor and it would help quite a lot if Mikel Nieve could win the Polka Dot Jersey.

Europcar tried to attack on stage 18 with Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland but it all came too late as the breakaway already had a big gap. I think both Voeckler and Rolland will be eager to get into the morning breakaway and with a downhill finish, the stage looks very good for especially Voeckler.

My last joker is Alessandro De Marchi. His teammate Moreno Moser came close on Alpe d’Huez and his third place must have boosted the moral for the coming days. De Marchi himself has tried hard the last couple of days in the mountains and he did very well on stage 18 despite not getting into the morning breakaway. He finished 19^th on Alpe d’Huez and he showed in Dauphiné that he has what it takes to go all the way. Two years ago, the Italian’s former team boss, Gianni Savio, told me that De Marchi is strong but “not a winner”. Things have changed since then and should Alessandro De Marchi manage get into the morning breakaway, I think he will be very difficult to beat - should they make it to the line.

Favorite: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Jokers: Thomas Voeckler & Alessandro De Marchi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 19:

Tour de France: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

 As expected, a breakaway made it on Stage 14 and now the focus is back on the GC riders. This last week of this year’s Tour de France will be extremely tough and it starts out with a killer mountain stage finishing on the legendary Mont Ventoux.

The Route

In the past, the stages on the French National Day were made for the breakaways. This year it’s different. Stage 15 is the longest stage of this year’s Tour and despite finishing on Mont Ventoux, the first 221 km are more of less flat. This means it’s highly unlike a break will make it all way. It will be another hot day in the saddle with temperatures over 30°c and after two hard stages, many will hope for a quiet start of the day.

A tailwind will help a morning breakaway get a good gap but the peloton will make sure it won’t get out of control. The intermediate sprint is located in Malaucène 15 km from the bottom of Mont Ventoux. Since the stage hasn’t been very hard until now, most of the sprinters should be able to fight for points for the Green Jersey.

The Finish

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux.

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux have an average gradient of 7.5 %. The climb starts out quite soft with the first five kilometers not getting over 4-5 %. From here on the road really kicks up with percentages over 10 %. It’s always very windy after getting out of the forest into the moon landscape and this year is no different. The riders will be fighting a headwind and this will make it very difficult to attack and stay away alone. The last right hand turn towards the finishing line is the final struggle of the day and with more than 10 % you need to have something left in the tank if you’re not already alone in front.

The Favorites

The last time the Tour de France had a stage finish on Mont Ventoux, Juanma Garate won in front of Tony Martin after a long breakaway. Starting on Mont Ventpux, the break seemed doomed but since Andy Schleck didn’t want to attack without his brother, Fränk, the GC riders killed the stage and let Garate and Martin stay in front. I don’t think that will happen this year.

Chris Froome already has a good gap to his rivals and they need to take use of every opportunity they get. Froome’s rivals simply have to attack and gain time and everybody wants to win on this mythical climb. Chris Froome himself had his first - ever - rendezvous with Mont Ventoux just two months ago when he went to test his legs on the climb. Riders like Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck already know what to expect of Mont Ventoux and I think they will have a little advantage on Froome. However, it doesn’t help much if they can’t drop him uphill - and I don’t think they can.

The way I see it, Chris Froome is the big favorite for the stage win. He lost a minute to Contador and Mollema in the crosswind and I’m sure he will be eager to take back the lost time time and show who’s the strongest rider in the race. Team Sky are missing Vasil ‘Chloroform’ Kiryienka and Edvald Boasson Hagen but they still have David Lopez, Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte to set the pace and keep Chris Froome in front. It’s not ideal but it has to do. If not Froome, I think the stage winner will be Spanish.

Movistar will most likely make the race hard but they only have Nairo Quintana for the overall classification. The Colombian super climber will probably put in a couple of strong attacks but I think Froome will respond. He knows can’t let Quintana get away. On the other hand, if Alejandro Vavlerde tries an attack I doubt Froome will chase him down instantly. Valverde has good memories from Mont Ventoux. In 2009, he took the yellow jersey in Critérium Dauphiné (which he later won overall) on the stage to Mont Ventoux. Back then, he ‘gave’ the stage win to Sylvester Szmyd but this time Valverde isn’t giving anything away. Tour de France was his big goal this season and he lost it all when a rider broke his wheel on Stage 13. Movistar are out for revenge and with a fast finish - should it come to that - I think Valverde will be tough to beat if Froome is just focusing on keeping the jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with Froome and Valverde in front.

Also, look out for Andy Schleck. He’s getting stronger and stronger every day and he may have some unfinished business with Mont Ventoux from the last time he was here. The headwind won’t favor Andy Schleck but on a good day he could take another big stage win in the Tour.

The Jokers

The French riders will be eager to get something out of this Tour de France, especially on La Fête Nationale (Bastille Day). When the route was revealed Thibaut Pinot was my first pick for the stage win but now I’m not so sure. He seemed to arrive to the Tour in great shape but he had nothing in his legs in the Pyrenees. Lately he’s been getting better but apparently he has some kind of throat problems now. If he’s back at his 2012 level, he will be a dangerous outsider but I doubt it. Pierre Rolland is another strong French candidate and contrary to Pinot, Rolland seems to have great legs. A stage win on Mont Ventoux will help Pierre Rolland significantly in his fight to keep the Polka Dot Jersey and the other GC riders don’t have to worry about him. Rolland is 25:33 minutes behind Froome in the overall classification and he only focuses on stage wins and the KOM competition.

I have high hopes for Daniel Martin too. The strong Irishman has already won a big mountain stage in this year’s Tour de France and he’s been “saving bullets” for Mont Ventoux the last couple of days. Martin is 11^th overall so he won’t be giving a card blanche. Still, he won’t be the first rider Froome, Contador and Mollema will start chasing down either. Daniel Martin says he’s a big fan of the cycling history and naturally winning on a famous climb like Mont Ventoux would be amazing. He seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he has a strong kick too. I don’t know if Daniel Martin still fits the “joker” category but if so, he’s my joker for the stage win.

So. To sum it up: Chris Froome is the strongest rider uphill but may not have the best team. Furthermore, his primary target is to keep the yellow jersey. Alejandro Valverde is eager to take revenge and his Movistar team is very strong. Valverde is now out of the GC and the other favorites won’t chase him down right away. Not even Belkin…

Favorites: Chris Froome & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Pierre Rolland & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 15:

Just to get you into the right mood, take a look at the Mont Ventoux stage from 2000 when Marco Pantani won after an amazing comeback and series of furious attacks in the end:

Tour Preview - Stage 11

---

This could very well be the Queen Stage of this year’s Tour de France. It’s only 148 km but with no less than four nasty climbs on the menu. Col de la Madeleine (Cat HC), Col de la Croix de Fer (Cat HC), Col du Mollard (Cat 2) and finally the last category 1 climb up to La Toussuire. If you aim for the polka dot jersey, this is the stage you need to be in the break. Still I have a feeling it will be one of the GC contenders who ends up winning this prestigious stage.

Favorites:

I know for a fact that especially Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get in the right break tomorrow. The Danish climber knows this is the day to be in front if his dream of the polka dot jersey should come true. Sørensen tried to save as much energy as possible on Stage 10 and we can expect him to attack right from the very bottom of Madeleine. Chris Anker Sørensen also knows what it takes to win in La Toussuire. Back in 2008 he finished an incredible solo ride in front all day by winning the stage in front of Pierrick Fedrigo and Levi Leipheimer - two riders I don’t expect much of on Stage 11 though.  Also Johnny Hoogerland will most likely try to get in the early break but I doubt the Dutchman will be flying since he still seems to be struggling to overcome his knee injury.

La Toussuire. 18 km - 6,1% average.
Click for larger image!

As stated in the beginning I think this will end up with a fight between the race’s best climbers. Team Sky never seemed to panic when Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali attacked on the downhill section, neither when Jurgen Van den Broeck and Pierre Rolland attack over the top of the last climb. Bradley Wiggins knows how strong his team is and unless Evans and Nibali try to attack from far out, I doubt they will ever manage to shake British duo Wiggins and Froome.

I think a group of 10-15 of the GC riders will arrive more or less together at the bottom of La Toussuire and then we will see who have something left in the tank. I’m convinced Lotto-Belisol will try again with Jelle Vanendert and Jurgen Van den Broeck and this time it might work out much better than on Stage 10. I also expect Pierre Rolland to keep on attacking and with the big morale boost due to Voeckler’s (predicted) stage win, Rolland could make it two in a row for Team Europcar.

Yesterday I wrote about Alejandro Valverde and today he showed that his legs are really good. As expected he managed to stay with the favorites at all time and being over 10 minutes after Wiggins in the GC, I think Alejandro Valverde will give a real try on Stage 11.

Winner pick: Pierre Rolland or Jurgen Van den Broeck

Joker: Alejandro Valverde