Vuelta Preview - Stage 3

If you have been following the Vuelta a Pais Vasco the last years the finish on Alto de Arrate won’t be unknown to you. Samuel Sanchez has won here the last three times but also Purito has proven to be strong on this climb.

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before Alto de Arrate and with the stage only being 155,3 km long we are in for another hard day - especially in this extreme heat. Most likely a group of 4-5 riders will get away early and fight for the KOM points but I’m pretty sure it will all come back together on the final climb. An important factor in this Vuelta is the bonus seconds on the finishing line and with 12 seconds to the winner you can be sure that the overall favorite will do everything they can to take the stage win.

Alto de Arrate. 2 km to go from the top.

Alberto Contador already showed on stage 2 how important the bonus seconds are to him, when he took 2 seconds in front of his rivals and being only 14 seconds after the GC, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over the Red jersey from Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo after the stage. Personally I think it will be a fight between Contador and Purito on Alto de Arrate and if they arrive together Purito will win the stage having the strongest sprint. As Samuel Sanchez has shown time after time it’s essential to be first in the last corner with 250 meters to go and Purito knows that as he took 2^nd place after Sanchez earlier this year. 

Alejandro Valverde is a bit of dark horse as this finish suits him very well, but wasn’t really set to do the Vuelta until the very last moment. If he’s ready this could be his day - as he would get the leader’s jersey too - but I have more faith in Purito to be honest.

As said I expect this to be a fight for the stage win between the overall favorites but if I should mention a joker it would be Javier Moreno from Movistar. Moreno finally got his chance with a ProTour team this year when he signed with Movistar and he showed right away how strong he is on the uphill sections when he - all alone - railed back all breakaway attempt on Willunga Hill so Valverde could sprint to victory.  Moreno has been great the entire season, latest in Vuelta a Burgos, and if he gets the green light I’m sure he will try an attack on Arrate.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Javi Moreno

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Romain Sicard

Explanation: The French veteran is going for a fifth successive king of the mountains title but given the brutal parcours this year, Moncoutie will need to rack up the points as early as possible. It remainds to be seen how he’s riding following that nasty fall in the Tour, but Moncoutie may be tempted to puit down a marker today. Alejandro Valverde was a tempting choice for the win because he seems to be riding into some form – plus he would clearly like the idea of wearing red on his return to the Vuelta after a three-year absence. For my wildcard, how about Romain Sicard? The French rider from Bayonne is a tidy climber and this is the only stage that ventures into the Basque region so expect a sea of orange on the final Alto de Arrate. That said, Igor Anton and Amets Txurruka are probably more likely options... while Juan Manuel Garate might find some form in his old legs on the Arrate.

Tour Preview - Stage 7

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Finally. After a week of sprinting it's time to test the climbing legs. Despite it being the first mountain stage of the Tour it's only categorized as a "hilly" stage, but don't be fooled. It's true there is only one steep climb on the menu, but that is also a very nasty one!

The 5,9 km up to La Planche des Belles Filles have an average of 8,5% with ramps of 11%, 13% and over 20% on the last steep part towards the finishing line. It's a tiny road with the cold mountain wall on one side and trees on the other and without many turns the riders constantly will be able to see each other up the road. Just when you think you've reached the top of the climb and it's flat for about 100 meters you turn right up in the sky hitting the steepest part of the climb with percentages up to 22%. The last 50 meters or so are flat. Not that it will change anything though.

Favorites:

The way I see it there are two scenarios:

1) A break of 6-10 riders gets a good gap and they end up fighting for the stage win while the favorites only focus on each other minutes behind.

2) A break gets away but teams like FDJ (Pinot), Lampre (Scarponi) & Cofidis (Moncoutie/Taaramae) aren't represented up front and start to chase in order to have a crack at in the final. Also Rabobank (Gesink, Mollema & Kruijswijk) could easily take responsibility and chase the break. All ending up with the favorites fighting it out for the stage win and the yellow jersey.

Personally I think the scenario #1 is most likely to happen. Everybody knows that the winner on La Planche des Belles Filles (almost certainly) will take the polka dot jersey (2x10 points) and because of that, we should see guys like Chris Anker Sørensen (+5 min), Johnny Hoogerland (+14 min), Daniel Martin (+19 min), Matt Lloyd (+20 min) & David Moncoutie (+20 min) try their luck. All 5 have said they are aiming for the polka dot jersey and this stage is definitely one they have red-circled from the beginning. Let's hope neither of them get too banged up on yesterday's carnage stage.

After Stage 5 Bjarne Riis said that the man for the weekend is Chris Anker Sørensen and knowing how much the Danish climber wants to show himself and get in the fight for jersey, I will be surprised not to see him up front if a good break gets away. Also David Moncoutie will be eager to get in the break. The final climb is quite similar to Mont Faron - one of Moncoutie's favorite climbs - and the steep parts really suit the French veteran. The weather forecast shows sunny conditions and that is very good news for David Moncoutie who likes it hot and dry.

Steep parts of 13% towards the line.

I mentioned FDJ and Pinot before and that's for a reason. Thibaut Pinot lives nearby and know the way up to La Planche des Belles Filles very well. He has been training a lot on it this year already and said that it is his big dream to win on this climb. 

Looking at the GC favorites this is truly a climb that favors the pure climbers. The ramps of 11%, 13% and 20% comes and go meaning that you constantly have to change the rhythm. Not exactly Bradley Wiggins' cup of tea. For Wiggins it's all about minimizing the gaps and make sure Team Sky set a pace so high no one is able to attack.


Before yesterday's stage I would picked Wout Poels and Pierre Rolland  as solid candidates for the win, but after Poels crashed and withdrew and Rolland crashed and hurt his shoulder and his back, I think I better drop those two again. Still if Rolland is ready, he could really take revenge on this steep climb!

Winner pick: David Moncoutie from a break or Pierre Rolland among the GC riders if he's ready again.

Joker: Thibaut Pinot


For pictures of the final climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles click her!