Vuelta España 2012 - Bravo Alberto!

Alberto Contador showed seven fingers when he crossed the finish line in Madrid with a big smile on his face and happy team mates at his side.

There are no doubts that in Contador's mind the last two voided Giro and Tour wins still count for him and I'm sure it won't take long before he shows two full hands crossing the finish line as winner of yet another Grand Tour.

Alberto Contador got the prize for most aggressive rider in the race and that seems like a fair choice looking at his eagerness to attack during this Vuelta.

From day one Alberto Contador had his mind on winning Vuelta España - and nothing but that - and three weeks later he pulled it off. There is nothing left to say but:

BRAVO ALBERTO!

Vuelta Preview - Stage 21

I can't be satisfied with the amounts of points I've got in my competition with Felix during this Vuelta, but at least my predictions on who's the strongest and what's going to happen seem to fit. Anyway, it's time for the last stage of Vuelta España 2012 and I can't see this end in any other way than a mass sprint on Plaza de Cibeles.

John Degenkolb has shown to be nearly unbeatable when he's up there in the finals and I'm sure Argos-Shimano want to demonstrate their strength by ending this race with a fifth stage win for the fast German. It's the classic finish in Madrid on Paseo del Prado with the finish line next to the Cibeles fountain. In total the riders do 10 laps in the center of Madrid, much like we know it from the Tour de France, and with all the jerseys settled already there isn't really anything left but the stage win to fight for. Well, maybe Alejandro Valverde will try to rip the green points jersey of Purito's shoulder, but I'm sure Purito won't let that happen like in 2010, when Mollema "stole" the jersey on the very last day in Madrid.

It should be a fight between the usual suspects Degenkolb, Swift, Bennati, Viviani, Davis etc. so again it's almost impossible to pick a joker. I have tried Manuel Cardoso, Matti Breschel & Lloyd Mondory - without luck - earlier in this Vuelta but I think I will give one of them another shot. Lloyd Mondory seems to be getting stronger and stronger during the race and he's not afraid of taking chances in the final. He's not as fast as Degenkolb and co. but if he times his sprint right, I think he can get close to a Top3 - which is the best I can hope for with a joker on this stage.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb
Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Assan Bazayev

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 20

Just a few days ago we all thought this would be the stage where the Vuelta would find its final winner. In a way it still is, but definitely not like we expected it to be. Only a total off day or bad luck can rip the red jersey of Alberto Contador's shoulder and I can't see it happen.

Contador will win this year's Vuelta España, like predicted, but the second place is still wide open! Before the stage there are only 46 seconds between Valverde and Purito and even though only the victory seemed to count for Purito I'm sure he will do everything he can to end second instead of third. No disrespect for Alejandro Valverde, but it's no shame to lose a Grand Tour to Alberto Contador. Second place after the Spanish legend is still something you can be proud of.

Therefore I expect Purito to give everything he has left in the tank in order to drop Valverde on Bola del Mundo. So far Purito has taken 55 seconds (without bonus seconds) on Valverde on the previous stages ending with a climb (without taking stage 4 into consideration) but it has never been more than maximum 19 seconds á stage (without bonus seconds) so he really needs to dig deep and probably even win the stage in order to overtake Valverde in the general classification. Not an easy task, but never the less a task I think Purito can manage. Mentally it won't be easy but there are no doubts  that the last climb suits Purito very well with parts of 23% within the last kilometer.

Bola del Mundo - Click for larger view!

A few days ago I thought Purito might let Contador take this stage on home soil near Madrid, but after the epic stage to Fuente Dé the tables have turned. It would be an amazing finish to this Vuelta for Alberto Contador if he wins on Bola del Mundo in the red jersey - and I’m sure he will try hard to do so - but I also  but I think it will be difficult to drop Purito if the Katusha captain can put his mind to take the 2nd place overall instead of winning. No matter what this is a stage you need to watch live!

As you can see I think this will be a fight between the best riders and therefore it's very difficult to pick a joker. I really think Igor Antón will try something on a climb that suits him perfectly but it won't be easy to get away as Rabobank will work hard in order to protect their 6th and 7th place overall. I agreed with Felix than any rider outside of the top3 can be seen as a joker for this stage the only problem is who to pick? I have a feeling Antón has what it takes to pull it off, but I also have a good eye to Sergio Henao. It seems like Team Sky are giving Uran and Henao green light to try own luck as the podium is out of reach for Chris Froome and if the favorite hesitate a bit Sergio Henao could profit with a strong attack.

With my luck the last couple of days (Tiralongo & Valverde on stage 17 and Degenkolb and Matti on stage 19) it will probably be the one I don’t pick who wins. Anyway I’ll take Antón and hope for the best!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Igor Antón

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Thomas de Gendt

Explanation: Belgian all-rounder Thomas de Gendt came into the race with high hopes but so far has just a couple of breaks and a second place to his name. The 25 year old loves these big stages - just look at his track record with the Stelvio and Ciutu Negru - and he also has the polka dot jersey in his sights. A good day could see de Gendt take the stage and become king of the mountains before riding into the sunset on his belated honeymoon. If so, then his new wife will be a lucky girl... But my favourite for the Bola del Mundo showdown is the man I always tipped to win the entire race: Alberto Contador. His form had been consistently high and he's in the ascendency after that win at Fuente De. He also deserves a second stage scalp in a race he has lit up with his constant attacks. That said, I can envisage a situation where the Big Three mark each other out all the way to the summit and Contador gives the win to Purito or Valverde in a magnanimous display of seigneurial largesse.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 19

On paper this looks like another sprint stage without any categorized climbs on the menu, but don’t let that fool you! We are in Spain and especially the last 65 kilometers are up and down all the way to the finish line where it kicks up with 4,5% the last 1700 meters.

With about 8 km to go there’s a another uphill part with an average gradient of 7% over 800 meters on a tiny road towards Zamarramala. After that it’s downhill again before the final 1700 meters I just described. The forecast says the riders should have a tail wind the last 30 km and that means it will be another fast finish despite the ‘climbs’.

The uphill part with 7% towards Zamarramala. 8km to go.

In my opinion this stage looks good stage for guys like Gianni Meersman - fast guys with a good punch in a slightly uphill finish - and therefore I think that especially Lotto will do everything they can in order to set up Meersman for the final sprint. 

So far Rabobank haven’t even been close to a stage win and if they miss the morning break (again) they should be willing to help out Lotto, Argos-Shimano, GreenEdge and whoever wants to give their fast guy a chance. I have a feeling Matti Breschel soon will strike. He's using this Vuelta as warm-up for the World Champions and tomorrow's stage would be a good rehearsal for Limburg! Look out for the fast Dane...

It’s not given it will end in a sprint and even though the morning break might get caught before the line, the uphill part with 8 km to go will be a good place to attack for guys like Gilbert, Nocentini etc. Why not even Purito who will be eager to take some time on Valverde and maybe put Contador a little under pressure.  On the other hand, Valverde could be a sneaky pick for the stage win which will give a bigger gap to Purito before the Saturday’s steep finish on Bola del Mundo.

My favorite though is once again John Degenkolb. The fast German missed out on stage 18 in the last tricky corner and I’m sure he will be eager to take revenge in La Lastrilla. Some might say that the finish is too hilly for him but don’t forget that he has won on steeper finishes than this one earlier in his career. If Argos-Shimano can manage to keep it together before the last 2 km, I think it will be very difficult to beat Degenkolb. Even for guys like Meersman and Gilbert.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Matti Breschel

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Remi Pauriol

Explanation: Lotto Belisol are down to just five riders but Friday's uphill sprint will be each man for himself and I have a feeling Gianni Meersman may finally turn things round for the winless Belgium outfit. I expect fierce competition from Philippe Gilbert, perhaps even Alejandro Valverde, and a whole cluster of riders also looking to deliver a first win for their teams - Dutchmen Pim Ligthart and Robert Gesink, for instance. I fancy Astana to have a pop through Seeldraeyers, Zeits or Bazayev. But I'll stick with Meersman for his sprinting abilities. For my joker I'm going to go for a Frenchman. We're two stages from Madrid and still yet to see a win from a French rider. Christophe Riblon or Romain Sicard are long shots, but I'm going to go even more outré with Remi Pauriol from a break. With the scores tied 9-9 it's time to be bold. Or 'fou' as they say in France...

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 18

To be honest I’m still not sure how I managed to lose 3 (or 5!) points in my duel with Felix on yesterday’s stage. Tiralongo looked like a sure thing and when he blew, Valverde seemed to be able to catch Contador, oh well… Now it’s time for what should be the last sprint stage before Madrid and I would be surprised if the sprinters let this one go.

Nobody imagined that stage 17 would be as hard as it turned out to be and with that in the legs I guess the riders would be happy to let a few guys get away early on the stage. It’s the longest stage of this Vuelta España and even though it’s flat all the way from Aguilar de Campoo to the finish line in Valladolid it will be another tough day in the saddle.

Last 2 km of finish in Valladolid.

That being said, it does seem like the biggest obstacle doesn’t occur until after 204 km of the stage’s total 204,5 km. Right after crossing the river in Valladolid the road turns left in a 90° bend into a smaller road which means that if you’re not among the five first riders in that turn, you can kiss your chances of winning goodbye.

I think Argos-Shimano will take control of the race as we have seen before but I also expect Team Sky to help out now when Chris Froome isn’t gunning for the podium anymore. Ben Swift seems to be coming around again and even though it will be tough to beat John Degenkolb, I think Team Sky at least will try to give him a chance to do so.

It’s not easy picking a joker since there haven’t really been any jokers in the top3 in the previous bunch sprints but people are getting tired now and this could mean that Manuel Cardoso has a chance. I have backed Cardoso as my joker earlier in the race, without luck, but normally Cardoso gets stronger during the race and it wouldn’t be the first time the Portuguese champion takes top3 in a sprint in the final week of a Vuelta. Caja Rural already got their stage win when Antonio Piedre won the in Lagos de Covadonga and I hope that the euphoria on the team can give Cardoso the last few percentages he needs in Valladolid!

Winner: John Degenkolb

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Jan Bakelants

Explanation: What a stage yesterday! Shame there were no TV images of Contador's decisive attack - the early pace was so fast, the host broadcaster hadn't even got the cameras rolling. Bert's magnificent win was history in the making and a tactical masterclass. Above all, it was totally unexpected. To be fair, I had predicted the win for David Moncoutie and he was at least in the break. But my joker Rob Ruijgh spattered egg on my face when he withdrew shortly after the start. Spoilsport. Shows what I know - I even predicted no action from the GC contenders. Anyway, moving on... Today should be more straight forward, with John Degenkolb taking his fifth Yaaah! For my joker, I'll go for Jan Bakelants. The last rider to win at Valladolid was the late Wouter Weylandt and fellow Belgian Bakelants was a team-mate of Weylandt at Leopard Trek. It would be a fitting tribute - plus RadioShack could do with a lift. 

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 17

This stage has "breakaway" written all over it. It's true that the last two stages before the rest day also ended up with a break making it to the line but since the last climb here isn't hard enough for the favorites to try something, I think Saxo Bank would be happy to see a break take the bonus seconds.

The peloton enters the Cantabria region and despite the GEOX team not existing anymore we should see local guys like David de la Fuente and Juanjo Cobo try their luck. Felix came close the other day, but yet so far, when he picked de la Fuente as his joker, but maybe this could be his day? Anyway, I will stick with my previous joker Paolo Tiralongo - last chance for the Italian climber as my joker, maybe...

The stage's final climb up to Fuente Dé.
Click for larger view! Source: climbbybike

On paper this stage really looks good for a guy like Tiralongo. One could argue that the last long climb to Fuente Dé doesn't really suit the Italian climber, but the two climbs before that most certainly do. Collado de Ozalba and Collado La Hoz are both around 6 km long with an average gradient of 6,6% and 7,6%  and don't forget that Paolo Tiralongo nowadays has a very good sprint too. He showed that in the Giro earlier this year when he outsprinted Michele Scarponi and won on Rocca di Cambio - the training climb of yesterday's stage winner Dario Cataldo, but that's another story.

Another rider I have backed (too) many times in this Vuelta is Damiano Cunego. The "Little Prince" started the Vuelta as warm-up for the World Champions, but after the new Italian "clean" strategy, Cunego is no longer in the run for a spot on Azzurri's team. Looking at it, this stage seems tailor-made for Damiano Cunego, but without much to warm-up for now I'm not sure he will have the needed motivation anymore. Still - as I've said many times already - look out for Cunego!

The last turn before the finish line.

If this stage ends in a sprint anyway I think it will be fighting between Gianni Meersman and Alejandro Valverde. Meersman showed great shape earlier in the race and if he keeps that up he might have a chance as the last climb has an average gradient of only 3,9%. While it's not sure that Meersman will be there in the final, I think it's safe to say that Alejandro Valverde most certanitly will, so even though Gianni Meersman is an interesting outsider I'll go with Valverde as my favorite.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Paolo Tiralongo

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Rob Ruijgh 

Explanation: This is a very hard stage to predict - but one thing is almost certain: a break will stay out and it won't contain any of the GC men. French veteran David Moncoutie has pretty much waved goodbye to securing a fifth consecutive king of the mountains title but he will still hope to take a stage win for a fifth successive year in what could, after all, be his last Vuelta. This is the last chance he realistically has - I can't see his battle-bruised old legs getting up the Bola del Mundo in pole position. It's a gamble putting Moncoutie as my winner though: should he win, I'd be far better off taking five points from him as joker. I could then cover my back with a security blanket Mikkel has no doubt opted for: that's to say, one of the Big Three taking the win. That said, I could even throw in Purito as a joker, considering the likelihood of a break staying out... But heck, I'm going to be honest and stick with my gut-feeling, so for my joker I'll choose Rob Ruijgh. Vacansoleil still need a win and de Gendt will probably hold back until the penultimate stage (he needs the mountain points for the polka dot jersey). I feel Damiano Cunego will want to try something after his snub for the worlds, while the likes of Gianni Meersman, Paolo Tiralongo and even Philippe Gilbert will be hungry. Javier Aramendia will no doubt be back in the mix after a quiet week. Simon Clarke, too, may have a pop. Decisions, decisions... with so many permutations, it's going to be fascinating. And I'll no doubt enter stage 18 three points down on Mikkel... or worse, five!

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 16

Many said the three mountain stages in Asturia would make the difference but after two it’s still a close race between Alberto Contador and race leader Purito. Now it’s time for the hardest of the three-in-a-row when the peloton climbs up all the way to Cuitunigru.

Cuitunigru before the new asphalt.

Normally Puerto de Pajares would be the finishing climb, but to spice up this Vuelta even more Unipublic decided to add another three extremely steep kilometers to Cuitunigru. As you can see on the picture the road - or what should we call it? - wasn’t really ready for pro cycling so make sure there wouldn’t be any problems new asphalt was put on earlier this year. Better road conditions or not, this is an insanely hard finish and on paper it looks perfect for Purito with a part of 25% just before the line.

Still I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it again. Imagine if Team Saxo Bank had worked hard to pull back the break on stage 14. Then Purito would probably have won the stage and taken even more bonus seconds. It seems like the this race will be won with very few seconds and as it is now, Contador can’t afford to let Purito take seconds for free anymore.

Everybody knows a break has a good chance of making it and therefore everybody want to be in it as well. The first categorized climb, Alto de Cabruñana, starts after 41,2 km and this is probably where the final break will be established. 

Last 2,8 super steep km of the stage
Click for larger view!

Damiano Cunego has been trying very hard to get in the break the last two days but without any luck and he knows he needs to dig deep at least once to realize his shape before the World Champions. I think Cunego will do everything he can do make it this time and even though my jokers from the previous days (Quintana, Jeannesson & Tiralongo) also have a very good chance I put my faith in the Italian Prince. Meaning that with my luck in the duel against Felix, Tiralongo probably wins the stage…

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Damiano Cunego

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Cayetano Sarmiento

Explanation:Well, well, well. I picked the wrong Caja Rural guy yesterday: even though David de la Fuente was in the break, it was his team-mate Antonio Piedra who took the win. To make things even worse, de la Fuente was pipped for third and so didn't even pick me up the one consolation bonus point that could make the difference in my duel with Mikkel come Madrid. How to drag myself up from that? Well, be bold and pick two riders Mikkel won't pick - that's how. First up, my favourite for the win is Alberto Contador, who will surely make it third time lucky after yet another attacking display. Bert is so close to distancing Rodriguez. He has to keep motivated and press on. J-Rod will certainly like the 22% ramps of the last climb of Cuitu Nigru, but he won't like the length: at 19km long and coming after two Cat.1 climbs, this will be arguably the hardest finale in this year's Vuelta. The queen stage should be won by whoever wants to be crowned king of the race. Does Contador have what it takes? As for my joker, I was at first hesitating between Damiano Cunego of Lampre and Gustavo Cesar of Andalucia. Lampre have been shamefully quiet these past two weeks and the Little Prince is surely keeping something special back for the big occasion? As for Cesar, the climber has also been rather lacklustre - and after Caja Rural's win, the pressure will be on Andalucia to deliver the goods. But in the end I went for Cayetano Sarmiento in a bold display of recklessness. Liquigas are also having a pretty shoddy race, and Sarmiento is one of the lesser-known of the swelling Colombian contingent in the pack. But he showed his climbing ability in the Dauphine and this could be his chance to sign on with the big time. If there's any justice in the world, Saddles will be rewarded for his troubles and deservedly distance Mikkel.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 15

There may not be as many climbs on the menu as on the last stage but I think we will see a very similar scenario. Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank did everything right and with 500 meters to go it looked like Alberto Contador would be able to pull it off. The way I see it they need to continue this strategy in order to tire out the rivals and then hope Contador will keep on getting stronger and stronger.

Even though I expect Saxo to keep working hard, the profile of the stage makes it a lot easier for a break to get good gap in the beginning and I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it all the way like in 2010 when Lagos de Covadonga last appeared in the Vuelta. What has changed from back then is the weather. In 2010 Carlos Barredo won on his training climb in pouring rain but this time it should stay dry and once again without much wind.

Detailed profile of Lagos de Covadonga
Click for larger view! 

The climb up to Lagos de Covadonga is feared by many riders and the profile shows why. It’s said to have an average gradient of 7% but that is mostly because of the two short descents near the top. When the climb really starts, about 11 km from the line, the percentages don’t really drop below 8,5% for 8 km before the first descent of 500 meters. After that the climb kicks up with 11%  before yet another short descent with 1 km to go. The last 500 meters are uphill with about 10% all the way to the line.

It’s another perfect stage for race leader Purito as he should be able to re-join Contador on the small descents, if Contador drops him, and then  beat him in the final uphill sprint. Still I expect Contador to take stage win soon and it’s really a crap shoot between him and Purito again this time.

As I said, I think a break will make it. One thing is setting a high pace, but I’m sure Contador and the rest of the Saxo boys are getting tired of Purito stealing the bonus seconds every time. Therefore it might be more clever to let a break go to make sure Purito doesn’t get any bonus seconds and then try to drop him on the final climb.

Because the chances of a break making are pretty good almost every rider want to get in the break. It’s difficult to pick just one since riders like Nairo Quintana, Paolo Tiralongo, Christophe Le Mevel, Tiago Machado abd Damiano Cunego all sound good to me, but will try my luck with Arnold Jeannesson. The French climber came to the Vuelta with pains in his knee but has been getting better and better every day. On stage 12 he tried to attack early on the steep final climb but died trying because of a wrong gearing. After the stage Jeannesson said he still aims for a stage win in the mountains and if he manages to get in the right break I think he will be difficult to shake on the final climb.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Arnold Jeannesson 

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: David de la Fuente

Explanation: Let's be honest - there's really no point picking a wildcard in these key mountain stages because the winner will surely only be one of the Big Four (or Dani Moreno). Twice I have picked Alberto Contador - and twice I thought the points were in the bag until the final few hundred metres. First, he was beaten to Jaca by Valverde and then yesterday he was pipped by a rampant red Rodriguez. Contador's morale must be pretty low, with his Spanish rivals now having five stage wins between them. But surely it's a matter of 'when' and not 'if' Contador takes a stage scalp. For all Rodriguez's dominance, he still only holds a 22-second lead over Contador in the GC. One attack that sticks and Bert will be in red - and although I have a major man crush on J-Rod at the moment (and hopes he takes the overall win) I am going to go against the grain and stick to Contador to take the win at the mythical Lagos de Covadonga. As a token joker, how about Caja Rural's David de la Fuente? He's kept quiet and may fancy getting into the break. I have a feeling about Andrey Kashechkin too. 

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 14

Welcome to the mountains. Forget about the "walls" we have seen so far, now it's time for some real climbing. With no less than five categorized climbs on the menu and only 149,2 km to cover it all this is surely one of the key stages in the Vuelta.

The final climb, Puerto de Ancares, had its Vuelta debut last year and that made for a brilliant show despite it being placed in the middle of the stage. The climb is 9,5 km long with an average gradient of 8,1% but with steep parts up to 12-15% within the last two kilometers. Some people calls it "the Spanish Mortirolo" and even though it's not as tough as Mortirolo you can understand the comparison. Before the riders get to Puerto de Ancares they need to tackle another category1 climb, Alto Folgueiras de Aigas. The average gradient is "only" set to 6,7% over 9,7 km but that's because of the last part where it evens out a bit a kilometer before the top. It's very steep in the beginning and then it stays 7+% all the way.

Puerto de Ancares - 9,5 km / 8,1% avg.

Looking at the profile I would say this is a great stage for Alberto Contador to drop guys like Chris Froome and Alejandro Valverde. The final climb is so hard that the selection will happen without many attacks and if Dani Navarro and Rafa Majka manage to stay with Contador again, I think the Saxo boys can make life very hard for the rivals. Alberto Contador knows he needs to drop Purito in order to win this Vuelta but he also knows it's only the classification in Madrid that counts. Contador won't panic if Purito stays in his wheel on the steep parts and I think the two of them will be able to profit a lot if they can work together again.

The bonus seconds seem to be very important again this year but on such a steep climb like Puerto de Ancares it's not only a matter of seconds but of minutes. Therefore I think a break will have a decent chance of making it again and if so I would like to point out Paolo Tiralongo. The Italian came here to go for the GC but crashed on the opening team time trial and hurt his hip. Day by day Tiralongo has been feeling better and on the stage to Barcelona he showed he is ready to attack again when he took 3rd place after Gilbert and Purito. 

I think Paolo Tiralongo is back to his real level now and if he manages to get into the break he has very good chance of taking another Grand Tour stage this year. Tiralongo could also profit from the favorites looking too much at each other on the final climb and then attack without being a threat in the overall classification. In any case I see him as a very good joker for the stage win. It's also a very good stage for riders like David Moncoutie who aims at the KOM jersey. Also Nairo Quintana could do well on a steep climb like this one, but since I can only pick one, I'll go with Paolo Tiralongo.

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Paolo Tiralongo

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Amets Txurruka

Explanation: At last, we're in to the proper mountains. The Asturias beckons with a short and sharp stage 14 that gets harder and harder with each climb. While Joaquim Rodriguez has proved himself to be quite the canny tactician in red over his trademark ramps during the opening two weeks of racing, things will now take an entirely different complexion. I expect Alberto Contador to finally throw down the gauntlet and get that elusive win. With it, Bertie should take the red jersey as well. As for my joker, Euskaltel are due a win and Txurruka could be the man to deliver. Igor Anton is still too much of a threat on GC to be allowed to get into a break - but Txurruka should be given free reign to attack. I expect David Moncoutie to be in the break too - but I don't feel the French veteran will have the strength to prevail on the fierce Puerto de Ancares.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 13

Purito made up for what happened on Arrate and leveled out the score in my ittle duel with Felix. Great. Now it’s time for another sprint finish and trust me, I won’t make the mistake of picking Ben Swift again.

John Degenkolb has shown to be unbeatable in this Vuelta so far and without many chances left - and with the desire of taking back the points jersey - this is a stage he can’t afford let go of. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu but as always in Spain that doesn’t mean there are no uphill sections. About 15 km from the line it kicks up with 5% for 2-3 kilometers but it shouldn’t really change the fact that this stage will end up in a mass sprint.

Only thing talking against it is Degenkolb’s superiority so far in the race. Like with Purito, no one really wanted to help out Katusha on stage 12 and that could very well happen for Argos-Shimano as well. The way I see it there are only two other sprint stages left in this race but even though the sprinters won’t get many chances from here on it will require a lot of confidence from guys like Viviani, Bouhanni and Bennati if their teams should start helping out Argos-Shimano.

Therefore you must not rule out the chance of a breakaway making it this time. There are some uphill sections in the beginning of the stage and I think it will be another fast start with everybody trying to put a guy in the break. Euskaltel showed on stage 12 that they are back ready to attack and it would make sense for them to send out a guy like Ruben Perez. He is good at picking the right breakaways and he is also very fast on the line. So far he has been sprinting to places from 10-25 in the previous bunch sprints but if he manages to get in the break he could go all the way in Ferrol.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Ruben Perez

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John 'Jaaaa!' Degenkolb

Joker: Assan Bazayev

Explanation: The stage starts in town of Santiago di Compostela, the destination of the major Catholic pilgrimage route of the St James' Way. As such we can expect a likely attack from Javiers Chacon and Aramendia - although it hardly takes religious fervour to force those two out in front of the peloton. It's a tricky, undulating route, but given the lack of opportunities for the sprinters following this stage, I expect it to come down to a bunch finish. If that's the case then you can't really look beyond Degenkolb - it's almost as stupid as picking someone else to win on a punchy ramp other than Joaquim Rodriguez (as Saddles did yesterday - simply to allow Mikkel the chance to draw level and spice things up). While I don't expect a break to stay out, the final kilometres are challenging and there is also a difficult uncategorised climb near the finish. If someone attacks early, they could hold the pack at bay. That someone could be Astana pocket rocket Assan Bazayev.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 12

Purito managed to keep the red leader’s jersey with just 1 second after the time trial and now it’s time to make the gap bigger. This is another stage tailor made for Purito and unless a breakaway makes it, it will be a massive surprise if Purito doesn’t take yet another stage win in this Vuelta.

The stage follows the coast line up north from Vilagarcía de Arousa to Dumbría and on paper it looks totally flat - that is, until the last 1900 meters up to Mirador de Ézaro. The average gradient shows 13,5% and with parts up to 25% it sure is perfect for Purito. There are 12 bonus seconds on the line and with three hard mountain stages, starting after Friday, in a row it would be good for Purito to have a bigger gap to Alberto Contador who - as expected - seems to get stronger and stronger every day.

Let the suffering begin! Mirador de Ézaro -1,9km 13,5% avg. 

The fact that everybody knows Purito is the big favorite also means that only few teams - if any - will help Katusha catch the break. Therefore it’s very important for the Russian team that only a tiny break gets off in the beginning. With such a hard week ahead, there is now way they will used up their whole team chasing back a strong break just for Purito to gain a few seconds. Still I’m pretty sure this will end up with the favorites fighting for the win and as you can see I have no doubts Purito will win such a fight.

In case of a break makes it I would like to pick Jan Bakelants as my joker - again. As mentioned before Bakelants has been very showing some great shape in the recent weeks and he is not afraid of attacking either. Furthermore he is fast and even though an extremely steep finish as this one doesn’t suit him perfectly he is still very explosive in an uphill finish.

Winner pick: Purito
Joker: Jan Bakelants

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Philippe Gilbert

Joker: Tiago Machado

Explanation: Looking at the finish, I'm tempted to go for either Rodriguez or Moreno - that ramp seems tailor-made - but the Katusha pair may hold back until the weekend's mountain stages. Gilbert showed that he's riding back into form in Barcelona and that may have been the mental boost he needed. After all, the Belgian won these kinds of stages for fun last year. The likes of Tiralongo, Roche and Rabobank's top ten trio could be dangerous too. As for my wildcard, I first went or local rider Gustavo Cesar, who owes a win to all those people who painted his name in the road for the time trial. But instead, how about Tiago Machado? RadioShack need a win and we're not too far away from the Portuguese border. Plus Machado is no longer any threat on GC. 

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 6 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 11

Some says the Vuelta España first starts for real on Friday, but if it hadn’t already I would say it starts on stage 11. It’s the only individual time trial in the race and I’m sure we will see some important changes in the classification when the day is over.

Knowing the current World Champion, Tony Martin, is in the race it would be natural to pick him as the favorite, but looking at the profile I’m not so sure it will be easy for the German time machine. Of the course’s 39,4 km no less than 10 is uphill followed by a tricky descent the last 16 km. That means that Tony Martin really just have the first 13,4 km to make the difference and I doubt that will be enough with the category 3 climb, Alto Monte Castrove, following right after. Its average gradient is “only” 4,4% but the beginning is very tough with percentages around 7-8 the first three km. Tony Martin tried the course on the rest day and according to Martin himself he was very disappointed of what he saw.

Therefore I think it will be a fight between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. Froome has been outstanding in his recent time trials taking 2nd in the Tour (in front of Fabian Cancellara and only beaten by Bradley Wiggins) and 3rd at the Olympics after Wiggins and Martin. If Froome still has something left in the tank this could be his big chance of taking some time back on Contador, Valverde and especially Purito before the mountains and according to himself the course suits him despite its tricky parts.

Alto Monte Castrove - Category 3 - 10 km / 4,4%

Logic says I should pick Froome as my favorite but I think I’ll go with Alberto Contador instead. While the other riders have only tried out the time trial once or maybe twice, Contador had been riding the course 8 (!!) times before the Vuelta even started. All he has been thinking about during the ban was winning the Vuelta and remember that Contador was actually talking about taking an Olympic medal on the time trial last year before he got banned.

When Bjarne Riis signed him he said he believed he could make Contador improve his time trial skills a lot - a lot he said - and don’t forget Contador has already won time trials in the Tour de France beating Fabian Cancellara. No one is as motivated as Alberto Contador for this time trial and if it stays dry on the tricky descent I think Contador’s first win in this Vuelta will be in Pontevedra.

To be honest I can’t see any other riders than the three already mentioned wining this time trial. A guy like Andrew Talansky showed in Tour de Romandie that he can compete with the elite, when he was only beaten by Wiggins by a few milliseconds and as I have him predicted to end in the Top10 overall I also think he will do well in this time trial. Another guy I know for a fact will give a real try is Thomas De Gendt. The Giro sensation was very disappointed with his performance in the Belgian national championship against the clock and is eager to take revenge in Spain. He has already been out in breaks trying to find his legs and if everything goes perfectly he might be able to get in top3. I doubt it, but hey for a joker he could be a good pick!

Winner pick: Alberto Contador
Joker: Thomas De Gendt

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Andrew Talansky

Explanation: This one is hard to call. I expect it to be a three-way tussle between Alberto Contador, Chris Froome and Tony Martin - probably finishing in that order. With a climb in the middle, this is quite similar to the Tour's first time trial, in which Froome finished second. After so many exertions this summer, Froome must be knackered - and he hasn't looked half as strong as he was on the Tour. Martin would be favourite were this a flat course, but the bump puts him at a disadvantage. The worlds are more likely for the German, who by then should be back to his best. Contador is a bit of a punt but time trialling is one thing you can practice on your own - and he's had six months going solo. The Spaniard to win - by less than seven seconds, putting Froome in red. My wildcard? Andrew Talansky has been quiet so far but there must have been a reason by Jonathan Vaughters made him Garmin's leader. A former youth TT champion, the American would kick-start his Vuelta with an unexpected win.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 6 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 10

I guess it won’t come as a chock for you but I had Ben Swift put down for this stage on my pre-Vuelta stage winner paper. A lot have changed in the first 9 days though and I must admit that my statement about Swifty being the fastest guy in the race hasn’t really been as accurate as expected. That being said, don’t be surprised if he ends up winning in Sanxenxo!

It’s a classic transition stage getting to the mountains and even though it’s alongside the sea with a good chance of cross wind I think it’s safe to say it will end up in a bunch sprint. The last kilometer kicks a little bit uphill but not more than a few percentages and it seems perfect for John Degenkolb to take his 4^th stage win in this Vuelta España. Argos-Shimano have been outstanding in their way of setting up Degenkolb in the finals - even when Team Sky seemed to have gotten the better of them on the Motorbike circuit - and it will take something very special to beat Degenkolb this time.

Picking a joker for a stage like this is nearly impossible. A joker should be a guy no one expects winning (Swift?...) but in a sprint like this it will be the same 4-5 names we have already seen in action. I have to pick one so I’ll try Lloyd Mondory. The French sprinter is always up there around top10 and I have a feeling it won’t take long before he gets into Top3. He surprised me on Sunday’s stage in Barcelona where he managed to hang on to the front over Montjuic and took 15^th place and according to Mondory himself he feels better and better every day. I doubt he can beat Degekolb but if the cross wind splits up the peloton and Mondory manages to stay in front I think he could have a decent chance of top3 – which in this case you give me some much needed points in my duel with Felix!

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Thomas Dekker

Explanation: The stage is likely to end in a bunch sprint and there's no evidence to suggest that anyone is good enough to beat Degenkolb and his Argos Shimano train in that kind of finish. Ben Swift's performances have been so off-key that I was almost tempted to throw him in as my joker - although Mikkel probably wouldn't have allowed that one (he clearly has a soft spot for Swift, having stuck with him on three - three! - occasions so far). Given the early Cat.3 climb, the likely crosswinds coming off the Galician coast and the prospect of Wednesday's time trial, a break could well stay out. Thomas Dekker, riding his first major tour since coming back from suspension, has been quiet so far. This could be the chance to remind the world of his talent.

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta - Rest Day

No preview today as the riders take a well deserved rest day after 9 days in the extreme temperatures. 

Preview of tomorrow's stage 10 will be online later today. Untill then, here are the previous Vuelta pieces:

Preview - Stage 9
Preview - Stage 8
Preview - Stage 7
Preview - Stage 6
Preview - Stage 5
Preview - Stage 4
Preview - Stage 3
Preview - Stage 2
Exclusive Interview: Denis Menchov
Preview - Stage 1
Preview & Favorites
Exclusive Interview: Thomas De Gendt
Exclusive: Froome ready to take on Contador