Tour de France: Stage 4 TTT Preview & Favorites

After three spectacular days on Corsica, Tour de France now continues on the mainland. The surroundings in Nice are not bad at all but for the TV-viewers Corsica will be missed. Before the Tour started, Omega Pharma Quickstep were the big favorite for this stage. However, the three days on Corsica have changed that fact a little.

The Route

Looking at the map this is a stage for the big powerhouses. The 25 km in Nice take place on big roads and only include nine corners. Furthermore, the profile is as flat as a pancake. The first 1.5 km are the most technical with three 90° corners before the riders get on Promenade des Anglais. There is a split time after 13 km and from here on there are only two corners to overcome. This means that fastest team at the split time won’t necessarily win the stage.

Starting Order
15:15 Argos-Shimano
15:19 Omega Pharma Quickstep
15:23 Lotto-Belisol
15:27 Cannondale
15:31 Cofidis
15:35 FDJ.fr
15:39 Belkin
15:43 Garmin-Sharp
15:47 Euskaltel
15:51 Sky
15:55 Katusha
15:59 Sojasun
16:03 Astana
16:07 Movistar
16:11 Team Saxo-Tinkoff
16:15 Europcar
16:19 AG2R
16:23 Orica-GreenEdge
16:27 Lampre
16:31 Vacansoleil-DCM
16:35 BMC
16:39 Radioshack

The Favorites

As stated in the beginning Omega Pharma Quickstep came to the Tour as the big favorites for this stage. The Belgian team won the World Championship last year and bring strong time trialists like Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Niki Terpstra and Peter Velits. Add to that list Mark Cavendish who always delivers a top performance in these disciplines. Unfortunately, Omega Pharma Quickstep haven’t had much luck so far. Tony Martin went down hard in the big crash on Stage 1 which also ended Mark Cavendish’ chances of the Yellow Jersey. Cavendish himself has been suffering from bronchitis lately and on Stage 3 Niki Terpstra crashed on a descent. I still think Omega Pharma Quickstep will make podium on this stage but they are not the big favorite anymore.

The way I see it, Garmin-Sharp is now the new favorite. The American team has always had high ambitions for the team time trials and they have an incredible strong team. All nine riders – except for Dan Martin - are good against the clock and David Millar will be eager to take the yellow jersey after he missed out with just one second on Stage 2. Garmin-Sharp won the team time trial in the Giro d’Italia last year and took the leader’s jersey and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do same thing in Nice.

Orica-GreenEdge also bring a very strong team for this TTT and the course really suits them with strong motors like Cameron Meyer, Brett Lancaster, Daryl Impey and especially Svein Tuft. The Australian team don’t have any riders for the overall classification and this is surely one of their key stages in this year’s Tour de France. The moral is high after they got their first ever stage win in the Tour de France and they are one of the few teams not worried about getting the Yellow Jersey “too soon”. The other GC teams would like to save energy for the last week but without a GC rider, GreenEdge will enjoy it to the fullest, should they win this team time trial.

The map of Stage 4. Click for larger view.

Originially Team Sky were one of my favorites for this stage but they too have been suffering from crashes. Geraint Thomas rides with a fractured pelvis and Ian Stannard is not doing great either after his crash. 

Chris Froome, Richie Porte and Edvald Boasson Hagen are all among the best time trialists in the race and even without Thomas on his best, they should be able to do a top performance. Still, I doubt they can pull of a win like they did in the Giro earlier this year.

It wouldn’t be fair not to mention Movistar. For unknown reasons the Spanish team are always considered underdogs for the team time trials. However, they have been among the absolute best teams the recent years. They won the opening TTT in Vuelta España last year and they took 2^nd place in Giro d’Italia this year. On paper, Movistar don’t bring many good time trialists but their really know how to make it work when it counts. Most people will probably be surprised should Movistar make Top3 but if you take a minute to think about, it shouldn’t really surprise you.

The Joker

I’ve already named the teams I think will make Top5 on this stage, therefore it’s difficult to pick a joker with a chance of surprising. Still, I have a good feeling about the Belkin team. Lars Boom has been very active the first two stages and he’s great against the clock. Like the Movistar the individual riders are not among the best time trialists in the race but together they make it work. Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink and Lars-Petter Nordhaug are known for being good in the mountains but they also know how to ride a good time trial. It seems to me that the Dutch team is super motivated after Belkin took over as team sponsor and I think they will put in strong ride in Nice.

Favorites: Garmin-Sharp / Omega Pharma Quickstep

Joker: Team Belkin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 4:

Paris-Nice: Stage 6 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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Sandwiched between yesterday’s summit finish and tomorrow’s uphill time trial, it’s tempting to ignore today’s stage. But like all sandwiches, the filling in the middle should the tastiest part.

Today’s route is has plenty of climbing and tricky descents in the second half and there’s a chance to shake-up the overall classification. But if this doesn’t happen we’ll see exciting racing on scenic roads.

• Km 6.5 – Côte du Bois de Rousset, 4.4 kilometre-long climb at 4.5% – category 3
• Km 87.5 – Côte des Tuillières, 2.2 kilometre-long climb at 7.8% – category 2
• Km 103.0 – Côte du Mont Méaulx, 1.7 kilometre-long climb at 4.3% – category 3
• Km 138.5 – Côte de Cabris, 7.6 kilometre-long climb at 5.8% – category 1
• Km 148.5 – Col du Ferrier, 4.3 kilometre-long climb at 6.8% – category 1

The Route
A scenic charge east across the southern foothills of the Alps. The start town of Manosque is a great place for cycling, far away from the more crowded finish in Nice. The race avoids a lot of the best roads but it’s still 220km to go as quickly as possible to Nice.

The Finish
Look at the profile and there’s a long downhill run to Nice. The first part twists and turns and a chase is hard if a group is away but the closer the race gets to Nice the bigger the roads get and the harder it will be for a move to stay away.

The final kilometres are flat and smooth along the wide seaside Boulevard des Anglais road. The secret here is to watch the wind coming from the sea and sprint in the shelter of riders.

The Scenario
Andrew Talansky lost the lead by attacking yesterday. His three accelerations yesterday helped thin the lead group and had riders and viewers alike sitting on the front of their saddles and sofas but ultimately when he slowed Richie Porte rode away for the stage and race lead. Nevermind the tactics it’s possible Talansky tries to make amends on this stage with some moves. But any attacks from his part will probably be late rather than over the big climbs as there’s a long way from the last climb to Nice. If not Talansky then note others might try too, they can climb up the GC with even a small time gap thanks to the time bonus.

More likely is that finally a breakaway will stay away, it’s the last chance for half the bunch to win something so expect a fast start as moves try to go clear. Thomas Voeckler’s won before in Nice. He tried the other day but was too close on GC to be let go, now having lost more time on the overall classification he’s an obvious candidate to try again. Talking of Frenchmen, watch Yoann Offredo as the FDJ rider is suited to long distances and today’s slog could suit him as a test ahead of Milan-Sanremo. It’s hard to pick a rider but remember they need a kick to win on the flat at the end.

Weather: rain showers along the way with cool temperatures of 10°C (50°F) rising to only 14°C (57°F) in Nice. A light headwind at the finish is forecast.

TV: the schedule changes with the weekend to a later slot of  3.25 – 4.50pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv are the go-to sites for video streams.

History: in 1955 the peloton left Manosque for Nice but instead of 220km the route was 258km. The stage was won by Gilbert Bauvin who almost won the Tour de France in 1956 but was beaten by Roger Walkowiak. Walkowiak’s name has become synonymous with winning the Tour de France by chance, because if such a feat seems impossible, in 1956 a group of 31 riders including Walkowiak escaped on an early stage to win come in with 18 minutes on the peloton. Walkowiak had to fight, he lost the lead but gained it back and finally won the Tour.

Gilbert Bauvin in 1950

Ironically Bauvin was promoted at the last minute to the France A team which left a vacancy in the French B team… which was filled by “Walko”, the the only rider management could find at short notice. In France gagner à la Walkowiak, “to win like Walkowiak,” became a phrase used beyond cycling to describe an easy win or an undeserved triumph. You can feel sorry for Walko here but imagine being Bauvin who ended up losing to the Tour to the man painted as cycling’s greatest loser.

Ride It: the final part of the stage should be familiar to many riders in the race. Some of the pro peloton lives in Monaco and a larger share lives in the surrounding area around Nice.