Due to technical problems, there won't be any stage previews for Tour de Romandie this year. I will however be posting a few thoughts about the stages on Twitter during the week.
Search for hashtag #tdrpreview to see favorites, jokers and stage details.
Stay tuned for the big Giro d'Italia Previews coming soon!
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Friday, April 19, 2013
Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Preview & Favorites
The first
two Ardennes Classics produced a surprising winner and with the new change of
course in the final of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, we might as well see another
outsider winning this Sunday.
Still, I
think one of the favorites will win this race and to me the biggest favorite is
Alejandro Valverde. He did fine in Flèche Wallonne on a finish that doesn’t
suit him and he showed in Amstel Gold Race that he is in great shape right now.
Liège-Bastogne-Liège is Valverde’s biggest goal this spring and with his fast
finish, he will be very difficult to beat. Furthermore, Movistar have a great
line up to support Valverde. Rui Costa, Quintana and Visconti all have the
strength to end on the podium in this race, but this Sunday they are all riding
in support of Valverde.
One of the
reasons why I see Alejandro Valverde as biggest favorite is the lack of
Roche-aux-Faucons. The little steep climb is closed due to roadwork, and
therefore the organizers have replaced it with Côte de Colonster. Colonster is
longer than Roche-aux-Faucons but it’s not nearly as steep. The 2,4 km have an
average gradient of 6% and on open roads it is now a lot easier for a big group
to keep the race together. The biggest threat of Côte de Colonster is probably
the fight for positions on the way to the climb. Right before it starts, the
peloton crossed a narrow bridge and after that a railroad crossing. If it
rains, this will be very dangerous with everybody wanting to be in front when
starting the climb.
As always
Saint-Nicolas will be a key point in the race with its top just 5,5 km from the
line. The chances of the big group starting this climb together are very high,
the way I see it, and it won’t be easy for climbers like Sergio Henao to get away. I think Movistar and Katusha will have enough manpower to
keep it together if needed and then set up Valverde and Moreno/Purito for a
final sprint.
Purito didn’t
have the legs to make a difference in Flèche Wallonne, but there is no doubt
about his shape right now. He came to Amstel Gold Race in “better condition than
last year” (according to himself) and Liège-Bastogne-Liège has been his big
target ever since last year. He even decided to skip Vuelta Pais Vasco - a stage
race tailor-made for him - in order to prepare for the Ardennes and arrive more
fresh than last year. The morale is great after his teammate and loyal helper Dani
Moreno won Flèche Wallonne, and even though it won’t be easy for Purito to win,
I think he’ll have a great chance of making podium.
The bridge & railroad crossing just before starting on Côte de Colonster - Click for larger view! |
As always,
I have a few jokers too. The first one is Bauke Mollema, the bookmakers don’t
seem to count on him, but I’ve seen Mollema getting better and the better the
last week. He finished 10th in Amstel Gold Race and managed to end 9th
in Flèche Wallonne despite being boxed in on Mur de Huy. I’m sure we haven’t
seen the best of Mollema in the Ardennes yet and he’s a good candidate for breakaway
attempt in the final. Don’t forget Mollema is also fast on the line, should it
come to a sprint. Last Wednesday, my joker Dan Martin was only centimeters away
from taking the podium in Flèche Wallonne - maybe Mollema will have more luck
this Sunday?
My second
joker is Björn Leukemans. His spring season has been solid without being great.
Must riders would probably be pleased with making Top20 in Dwaars Door
Vlaanderen, Ronde van Vlaanderen and Paris-Roubaix, but I doubt Leukemans is
very happy. The cobblestone races didn’t really go as planned, but luckily for
Leuki, he has another chance in the Ardennes. He showed great shape when he
took 3rd place in Brabantse Pijl behing Peter Sagan and Phillipe
Gilbert, and last Sunday he sprinted to 7th place in Amstel Gold
Race. Björn Leukeman decided to skip Flèche Wallonne in order to relax and
prepare for Liège-Bastogne-Liège and I wouldn’t be surprised if he improves his
9th place from 2011 this Sunday.
Winner pick:
Alejandro Valverde
Podium pick:
Purito Rodriguez
Jokers:
Bauke Mollema & Björn Leukemans
For live race coverage go to steephill.tv
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Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Flèche Wallonne: Preview & Favorites
This mini-classic
is the most explosive one of the three Ardennes races this week. The steep Mur
de Huy always makes for an exciting finish and like the last nine years, I’m
sure it will all come down to the final 1300 meters this time.
It’s 10
years ago Igor Astarloa won Flèche Wallone after a big morning break managed to
keep the peloton at bay, and even though Roman Kreuziger’s win in Amstel Gold
Race could be an indicator of another break making it, I highly doubt it. Phillipe Gilbert is eager to get his
first win in the rainbow jersey and together with the Colombia duo Sergio Henao & Nairo Quintana he is the man to beat on Wednesday.
BMC have
been very strong lately and Phillipe Gilbert seems to back at his best. He will
probably never going to be as strong as in 2011 but without Purito Rodriguez
[at this moment Purito isn’t sure he’s able to ride after his crash in Amstel
Gold Race], it difficult to pick another winner. No one was able to follow
Gilbert on Cauberg last Sunday and even though Mur de Huy is a lot steeper, it
still showed the strength of Gilbert right now.
In 2010
Igor Antón and Alberto Contador attacked early on Mur de Huy and got a nice
little gap before Cadel Evans and Purito caught them near the top. Evans won
the race back then and I think this year’s edition will have some of the same
scenario. Sergio Henao and Nairo Quintana don’t stand a chance against Gilbert
in ‘sprint’ on the final meters and they both know they need to get away on the
steep part in order to win. Both were outstanding in Vuelta Pais Vasco earlier
this month, especially on the steep gradients, and I would be surprised if none
of the two tries to get away on the parts of 17%. Phillipe Gilbert knows he
probably won’t be able to follow the Colombians on these gradients but if he
can minimize the gap before the final ‘flat’ (5%) part, I still think he can
come back and win the race.
Another
strong contender is Alejandro Valverde.
Just like at the World Champions last year, he wasn’t very well positioned when
Gilbert attacked last Sunday, but this time he managed to close the gap quickly
and win the sprint for 2nd place. I think Liege-Bastogne-Liege is
more suited for Valverde and it would make sense for him to pay back Quintana a
little for all the hard work the Colombian has done for Valverde the last year.
Still, don’t be surprised if Valverde manages to hang onto Gilbert and sprint
for the win.
My two
personal jokers for Flèche Wallone this year are Igor Antón and Daniel Martin.
As mentioned earlier, Igor Antón put in a strong attack in 2010 (ended 4th)
and this year he’s aiming to do the same. His condition has increased
significantly the last month or so and with the recent success for Euskaltel,
he should be proper motivated to do well. Antón has big ambitions for the last
two Ardennes races and if he enters Mur de Huy in a good position, he could
very well end up fighting for the win again.
Mur de Huy. 1,3 km / 9,3% avg. Photo from: climbbybike.com |
This is
also an important week for Daniel Martin. He was keen on showing his good shape
in Amstel Gold Race, but crashed before the final. The Irish climber normally
feeds on success and with his impressive overall win in Volta Catalunya, his
confident should still be great heading into the last two Ardennes. races
Martin reports he’s fine despite his crash last Sunday and I think he will end
up doing something great in Flèche Wallone.
Garmin have Ryder Hesjedal in the
race too, but if Daniel Martin is still in front when reaching Mur de Huy, he
should be the card to play. Not only does he climb very well he is also very
fast on the line. He managed to keep Purito and Quintana behind after a long breakaway
when he won the mountain stage in Catalunya and shows he’s not playing around. If
an outsider ends up winning Flèche Wallone, like Roman Kreuziger won Amstel
Gold Race, I think that outsider will be Daniel Martin.
Peter Sagan deserves to be mention as well, but I doubt he
can follow the best on the steep parts. He suffered from cramps in the final of
Amstel Gold Race and having never done Mur de Huy before, I don’t think he can
win Flèche Wallone. The great shape Sagan showed in Brabantse Pijl can’t just disappear,
but I wouldn’t be surprised if he either attacks from afar or ends up helping
his teammates Damiano Caruso and Moreno Moser.
Winner
pick: Phillipe
Gilbert
Podium
pick: Sergio Henao
Friday, April 12, 2013
Amstel Gold Race: Preview & Favorites
The
cobblestone Classics are now history and it’s time to focus on the Ardennes. I
have named Peter Sagan as my favorite for both Milano - San Remo and Ronde van
Vlaanderen and both times he has ended in second place. Still, it’s very
difficult not pick Peter Sagan as the
big favorite for Amstel Gold Race.
The race organizers
have changed the course for this year’s edition, so instead of finishing on the
top of Cauberg, the finish line is now more or less the same as for the World
Champions last year. That means we now have a 1,7 km flat part after Cauberg
and that really is in Peter Sagan’s favor. Explosive riders like Phillipe
Gilbert and Purito Rodriguez might have been able to drop Sagan on Cauberg on a
good day, but with nearly two kilometers flat before the line, Sagan has a good
chance to come back and win in a sprint. That being said, don’t be surprised if
Sagan attacks on Cauberg and soloes away for the win.
Another
important route chance this year is the extra lap after the third time over
Cauberg with 20 km to go. This opens up the race for attacks before the final
and even though I doubt a break will make, the chances are now better than before.
The extra lap also makes the race a lot harder, which means we should see a
smaller group than usually reaching Cauberg for the last time.
The way I
see it, there are two main contenders to Peter Sagan this Sunday. Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans. Gilbert has been getting
better and better all year and he showed in Brabantse Pijl that he is ready for
the Ardennes Classics. He won the World Champions on this course last year and
a podium without Gilbert will be a surprise, the way I see it. Simon Gerrans
has been targeting this week all season. He raced in Catalunya and Pais Vasco
in order to fine-tune his shape for the Ardennes, and he won a stage in both
races. Gerrans is not only strong on the hills, he is also very fast on the
line, probably faster than he has ever been. He has a super strong team to
support him and Gerrans is my personal favorite to win Amstel Gold Race, should
Sagan miss out.
Other strong
candidates for a podium spot are Alejandro
Valverde and Damiano Cunego.
Valverde had to skip Amorebieta last Saturday because of a cold, but he is
still confident about his chances this Sunday. I picked Valverde to win the
Rainbow jersey last year on this course and even though he only took 3rd
place, he did show that he is capable of doing great on this finish. Valverde
has been very strong this year and if he is ready again after his cold, he
should be among the riders fighting for the win. The same goes for Damiano
Cunego. He was in a perfect position last year, but crashed in the final on
Cauberg just as he was launching his attack. Cunego is now eager to get revenge
and even though he wasn’t great in Pais Vasco, only a puncture on the final
time trial kept him out of Top10 overal. The Ardennes Classics are a big goal
for Cunego this year and I think he will be up there in the final.
Last year’s
winner, Enrico Gasparotto, is
naturally keen on repeating his win but unfortunately, he crashed into a truck
while training on Thursday. Also, the new finish isn’t great for Gasparotto, so
I highly doubt that he will be able to win again this year.
Team Blanco
have two very good cards to play in Bauke
Mollema and Tom-Jelte Slagter,
but they haven’t had the best lead-up either. Mollema had to skip Pais Vasco
and stay in bed sick and even though he is better now, I still think he will be
targeting Liege-Bastogne-Liege instead of Amstel. That would mean Tom-Jelte
Slagter now has a chance of showing his great potential, in a race that is
almost tailor-made for him, but like Gasparotto, Slagter too crashed while
training. Hopefully, Slagter will be ready to fight Sunday, but if he’s not
100%, it won’t be easy to compete against Sagan, Gilbert, Gerrans etc.
Like
always, I have a joker too; Angel
Vicioso. Katusha have an extremely strong team for the Ardennes Classics
with Purito, Dani Moreno, Kolobnev, Spilak & Caruso, but I have a feeling
Vicioso will end up being the best-placed rider for the Russian team. Despite
the controversy from Operación Puerto, Vicioso now says he is back at his old
level and I know he has big plans for the Ardennes. He took 3rd
place of the first two stages in Pais Vasco and worked hard for Spilak and
Caruso in the rest of the race before abandoning in order to get ready for this
week. Vicioso probably doesn’t have the kick to stay with the best up Cauberg,
but if it comes back together on the last two kilometers, he is fast enough to take
a podium spot on a good day.
Other
interesting names are Marco Marcato
and Gianni Meersman. Marcato was out
for almost a month because of a knee injury, but he has shown good signs the
latest races. In Brabantse Pijl he put in some strong attacks on the hills and
with his fast finish, he’s one to keep an eye on for a breakaway in the final. Meersman
was great in Catalunya with two stage wins but he had to skip Pais Vasco due to
stomach problems. Now he’s feeling better though and after training in the sun
in Calpe for the last weeks, Meersman is now ready for Sunday.
Quickstep
haven’t been lucky in the Classics so far, but maybe their luck will chance
this Sunday on the course they won the World Champion Team Time Trial. If not
Meersman, they also have a strong outsider in Peter Velits, who too is very fast on the line and good on the
hills. Velits took third place on a Tour de France stage with a similar finish
last year and he showed to be in good shape in Pais Vasco. Look out for him!
Winner pick: Peter
Sagan
Podium picks: Phillipe
Gilbert & Simon Gerrans
Jokers: Angel
Vicioso, Gianni Meersman & Peter
Velits
For live race coverage check out steephill.tv
For live race coverage check out steephill.tv
Another joker today: In great shape, good uphill, semi-fast on the line, team leader and yet no one talks about him...Roman Kreuziger! #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013
Look out for the guy with the cap on the left side. Great shape and good candidate for an attack in the final. twitter.com/TeamSaxoTinkof… #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013
Friday, April 5, 2013
Paris-Roubaix: Preview and Favorites
Last year,
Fabian Cancellara crashed out of Ronde van Vlaanderen and saw Tom Boonen winning
both RvV and Paris-Roubaix. This year, Boonen crashed out of RvV while Fabian
Cancellara won the race. Cancellara has been outstanding the last couple of
weeks and there is really only one favorite
for Paris-Roubaix this year.
Unfortunately,
Fabian Cancellara saw the need to spin the legs in Scheldeprijs on Wednesday.
He crashed in the race and so did he again the next day, while checking out the
cobblesstone sections for Sunday. Two crashes in two days and suddenly Cancellara
is not the massive favorite he was as after winning Ronde van Vlaanderen. He is
still the favorite, but strong riders
like Thor Hushovd, Taylor Phinney, Juan-Antonio Flecha, Ian Stannard, Edvald
Boasson Hagen etc. are now more likely to win than they were just a few days
ago.
I would
imagine Radioshack to take control like they did last Sunday but they have to
be careful. BMC and Team Sky have two very strong teams with multiple winner
candidates and Radioshack can’t close all gaps by themselves. In the end it
will be up to Fabian Cancellara himself to take action and if he still feels
the recent crashes, he won’t be as unbeatable has he looked in Ronde van
Vlaanderen. I still think Cancellara will win Paris-Roubaix, but I wouldn’t be
surprised if a BMC or Team Sky rider crosses the line first on the velodrome.
I have a
feeling Taylor Phinney will end on the podium. Last year, all he was thinking
about was the Giro d’Italia prologue and he absolutely killed it. This winter
has been all about peaking in Paris-Roubaix for Taylor Phinney and even though
it won’t be as “easy” as winning the Giro prologue, the young American knows
how to perform under his own pressure. Phinney has been naming Thor Hushovd as
BMC’s designated team leader numerous times the last couple of weeks, but I
personally think, Phinney will end as best BMC rider on Sunday. He’s incredibly
strong on the cobblestones and very fast on the line. If Taylor Phinney arrives
to the velodrome in the first group, I think he will win this race.
Paris-Roubaix
is also the last chance for Team Sky to prove their untraditional Classics
training was a good idea. It’s easy to criticize them, but we must remember
that Geraint Thomas crashes in both Milano-San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen.
In Milano-San Remo, Ian Stannard took over and did a great race and last Sunday,
Edvald Boasson Hagen almost got on Sagan’s wheel when he and Cancellara went
away in the final. EBH couldn’t stay with the strong duo on Kwaremont, but I
think he will be better on the cobblestones. Like Phinney, Boasson Hagen is
very fast on the line and I expect him to be among the best riders on Sunday.
Like
always, I’ll like to point out a joker. This time it’s Matthieu Ladagnous. The
big Frenchman has been very strong so far this season and the last couple of
week he’s been near the front at all time. He was in the winning break with
Sagan in Gent-Wevelgem (ended 6th) and he took 2nd place
in the sprint behind the podium in Ronde van Vlaanderen last Sunday. Ladagnous
finished 12th in Paris-Roubaix last year and he is very eager to do
even better this year. He probably won’t win this race, but I wouldn’t be
surprised if he’s among the riders fighting for a spot on the podium.
For other strong riders with a fast finish, look to Lars Boom, Sébastien Turgot, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Jurgen Roelandts.
For other strong riders with a fast finish, look to Lars Boom, Sébastien Turgot, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Jurgen Roelandts.
Winner pick:
Fabian Cancellara
Podium
picks: Taylor Phinney / Edvald Boasson Hagen
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Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 6 Preview
Stage 5
started out just like expected, many attacks and three Movistar riders in
front. Team Sky were down to only Vasil Kiryienka in support of Richie Porte
and Sergio Henao but apparently, that didn’t mean much. The strong Belarusian
lead the peloton alone for 50 km and in the end Porte won in front of my
pre-picked favorite Samuel Sanchez and Team Sky team mate Henao. On a stage
where everybody needed to distance Richie Porte, the Tasmanian ended up
distancing everybody else.
Friday’s
Team Sky show leaves us with Richie Porte as the massive favorite for both the
stage win and the overall victory. Porte has been outstanding against the clock
this season and on a demanding course for the GC riders, I can’t really see
anybody threatening him if he’s 100%.
A lot of
riders dropped out of the race on stage 5, including strong time trialists like Tejay van Garderen, Rein Taaramae, Michael Rogers and Andreas
Klöden. Only the toughest riders remain and even these will feel Friday’s stage
in their legs, especially with another day of heavy rain.
The course
is very hard with steep climbs and tricky descents. One wrong turn or one slippery
piece of road is all it takes to ruin your GC dreams on this stage, but with
the first five riders within 10 seconds, nobody can take it easy. It’s full gas
from the start and whomever dares to take the most chances will end up winning
Vuelta Pais Vasco overall. I don't think this course is good for Tony Martin and having already crashed once in this race, I think he will be a little bit more careful in the rain.
Samuel
Sanchez showed to be back in the game on stage 5 and I’m sure he will give
everything he has, and take all the chances he needs, in order to give
Euskaltel their first win of the season. Sanchez hasn’t won anything since he
won the final time trial of last year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and he will be eager
to show he’s back.
Simon
Spilak is normally very strong the rain and he also tried to get away, catching
Richie Porte, on the final km on stage 5. Friday was Katusha owner Igor Makarov’s
birthday and even though it didn’t end up with another win (Purito won on his
birthday last year), I’m sure Makarov will settled for a spot on the final
podium. Spilak should be able to take 10 seconds on both Henao and Quintana on
this stage and if so, it’s up Richie Porte and Alberto Contador not let him
take the overall win too.
I’ve been
naming Beñat Intxausti a couple of times as my joker in this race, but his
crash on stage 1 seems to have kept him from performing as expected. Still, I
see him stronger and stronger every day and this time trial really suits him
well. He has to dig deep in order to provide Nairo Quintana with valuable time
splits and I honestly think Intxausti has a chance of winning this stage if
Porte doesn’t destroy them all again.
Favorites: Richie
Porte & Samuel Sanchez
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview
Remember
the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now
it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there
aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less
than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the
line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s
only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.
There will
be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather
forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and
it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r,
Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and
Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.
The
beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be
surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want
to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious
pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very
strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like
Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón
did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an
early break will make it.
I think
Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after
the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min
of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong
lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still
wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar
stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti
may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week,
giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win
stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.
Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top. |
Team Sky
lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in
the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would
expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t
respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing
his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group
with Porte left behind.
Damiano
Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and
he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that
suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel
Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front,
I’m sure he will try something in the final.
In
Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the
stage and they ended 1st, 2nd and 3rd. On this
stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s
close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates
instead.
Favorites:
Quintana, Sanchez.
Solid
outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 4 Preview
This is the
typical finish on Arrate. It’s a classic in the recent year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco
and it was also used in the Vuelta España last year. Normally the rule is; “First
rider in the last corner takes the stage”, but last year in the Vuelta, Purito
started to celebrate a millisecond too early and by that gave the stage to
Valverde.
Samuel Sanchez
has won this stage the last three years in a row and naturally, he is among the
favorites again this year. Still, it’s important to remember that Sanchez is not here in tip-top condition like the last years. This time he’s
100% focused on peaking in the Giro d’Italia and with strong climbers in the
race like Contador, Henao, Porte, Betancur, Quintana, etc it won’t be easy to
make it four in a row.
In my eyes, Alberto Contador is still the big GC favorite after stage 3. Contador won on Arrate back in 2009 after he soloed away from
the other favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again this year.
The first 6 km of the final climb have a steady gradient of 7,5% before the final “flat”
(3%) 1,3 km. As mentioned in the previous previews, there aren’t any bonus seconds
in the race, so if you want an advantage before the time trial, you need to
attack when possible.
I think
Team Sky will try to control the race on final climb, like they have been doing
all year long, and try to set Sergio Henao up for another lethal attack. Henao needs time before the time trial and right now he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. Movistar have
strong riders like Rui Costa, Beñat Inxtausti and Nairo Quintana for this stage
and I’m sure they will try something too. This climbs suits Quintana a lot more than the one on stage 3 and if he can cope with the expect rain, he will be very dangerous.
Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.
Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.
My personal joker for the stage is Pieter Weening. The morale on GreenEdge is sky high after two stage wins already and Weening did very well on La Lejana despite the steep gradients not being in his favor. Weening is fast on the line and if the we see a little group sprinting for the win again this year, I expcet Weening to be up there. The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The young Italian has been showing great shape lately and is always good in the rain. He has team mate Damiano Cunego to help him in the final and if Ulissi still up there in the final, he'll most likely win the stage.
Once again, it's difficult to pick only one rider as my favorite. Contador, Henao and Sanchez all seem like solid candidates, but I'll give Contador another shot to prove he's ready to win Vuelta Pais Vasco overall.
Favorite: Alberto Contador
Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 3 Preview
After two "semi-flat" stages it's now time for the GC riders to show their ambitions. The last 40 km of the stage includes three categorized climbs and the finish on Alto de la Lejana kicks up with 21% the last 400 meters.
It's a stage for the explosive riders and without any bonus seconds on the line, the pure climbers without a strong time trial - like Igor Antón and Sergio Henao - need to distance their rivals. Euskaltel were out training on the climb a couple of days ago and Igor Antón has already stated he wants to do something great in this race. The finish on Arrate (Stage 4) doesn't really suit him, so if he wants a stage win, this is the stage to win.
Naturally it won't be easy with Alberto Contador and Team Sky in the race. Contador is looking very strong right now and I'm sure he will be eager to take another win in the Basque race. Team Sky have been outstanding so far this year and even though everybody is talking about Richie Porte, I think Sergio Henao will be the man for this stage. The steep gradients suit Henao a lot better than Porte and don't forget Henao took 3rd place on the steep finish in last year's race.
Movistar's Nairo Quintana has been superb uphill the last month, but I don't think this short finish is good for him. Quintana likes it steep, yes, but not very short like this one. Also, Nairo Quintana wasn't planned to do the race as he were in France doing Tour de France recon with Alejandro Valverde just a few days before he was called up. I think Beñat Intxausti, despite his crash and time loss on stage 1, will be the team leader for Movistar.
For outsiders look to Wout Poels and Tom-Jelte Slagter. Both are very explosive and good on the steep gradients. Poels were great in Tirreno-Adriatico, considering his crash in Tour de France last year, and Slagter showed in Tour Down Under that he has what it takes to beat the elite on a short uphill finish.
It's difficult to pick a winner and I woud like to say both Antón, Henao and Contador, but if I have to pick one I'll have to say Contador. Still, don't be surprised if Euskaltel get their first win of the season on La Lejana.
Winner picks: Alberto Contador
Jokers: Wout Poels / Tom-Jelte Slagter
For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv
It's a stage for the explosive riders and without any bonus seconds on the line, the pure climbers without a strong time trial - like Igor Antón and Sergio Henao - need to distance their rivals. Euskaltel were out training on the climb a couple of days ago and Igor Antón has already stated he wants to do something great in this race. The finish on Arrate (Stage 4) doesn't really suit him, so if he wants a stage win, this is the stage to win.
Naturally it won't be easy with Alberto Contador and Team Sky in the race. Contador is looking very strong right now and I'm sure he will be eager to take another win in the Basque race. Team Sky have been outstanding so far this year and even though everybody is talking about Richie Porte, I think Sergio Henao will be the man for this stage. The steep gradients suit Henao a lot better than Porte and don't forget Henao took 3rd place on the steep finish in last year's race.
Movistar's Nairo Quintana has been superb uphill the last month, but I don't think this short finish is good for him. Quintana likes it steep, yes, but not very short like this one. Also, Nairo Quintana wasn't planned to do the race as he were in France doing Tour de France recon with Alejandro Valverde just a few days before he was called up. I think Beñat Intxausti, despite his crash and time loss on stage 1, will be the team leader for Movistar.
For outsiders look to Wout Poels and Tom-Jelte Slagter. Both are very explosive and good on the steep gradients. Poels were great in Tirreno-Adriatico, considering his crash in Tour de France last year, and Slagter showed in Tour Down Under that he has what it takes to beat the elite on a short uphill finish.
It's difficult to pick a winner and I woud like to say both Antón, Henao and Contador, but if I have to pick one I'll have to say Contador. Still, don't be surprised if Euskaltel get their first win of the season on La Lejana.
Winner picks: Alberto Contador
Jokers: Wout Poels / Tom-Jelte Slagter
For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv
Monday, April 1, 2013
Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 2 Preview
As
predicted, stage 1 ended in a sprint in a reduced group and I think the same
will happen on stage 2 - hopefully without the crashes. The final climb before
the finishing line isn’t as steep as the one on stage 1 and without any
accidents, we should see a bigger group fight for the stage win this time.
Astana were
very strong on stage 1 and had three riders in first group of 17. They messed
up a bit in the final sprint, but if they can get it right this time, I think
Francesco Gavazzi has a solid chance of winning. The fast Italian is normally
very good this time of year and if he can position himself well on the wheel of
Gerrans or Gilbert, he has a good enough kick to win the stage.
We have
seen how the descents have been used to split the peloton a couple of times
this season already and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens again on stage 2.
Without any bonus seconds in the race, every gained second is a success and
some of the riders caught behind the crash on stage 1 naturally want to take
back the lost time.
Euskaltel
didn’t manage to put a single rider in the front group as Samuel Sanchez, Gorka
and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón all got caught behind the crash, and I expect
them to be riding very aggressively on this stage. Samuel Sanchez is one of the
best riders on the descents and the Izagirre brothers aren’t bad either.
Without a single win this season, Euskaltel are forced to attack - especially on
home soil - and I’m sure they will do whatever they can to join the winning
club of 2013. Therefore, I’ll give Gorka Izagirre another chance to prove why
he should be a joker for the stage win.
Another good joker is Lampre’s Daniele
Pietropolli. Like team leader Damiano Cunego, Pietropolli got caught behind the
crash on stage 1 and if he manages to stay out of trouble, I think he could end
up surprising a few with his fast finish.
Favorites: Phillippe Gilbert / Simon Gerrans
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