Tour de France 2013: Preview & Favorites

The Tour de France route 2013 - click for larger view.

Many people criticized last year’s Tour de France of being ’too boring’. Looking at start list, I doubt that will be the case this year.

It’s true that Team Sky once again have the big favorite but the compared to last year, there are a lot more riders able to fight for the final podium.

This year’s race includes 21 stages. I have divided them into the following categories:

6 x “100 % sprint”.

2-3 x “sprint in a reduced peloton”.

3 x time trials; 2 ITT and 1 TTT.

4 x mountain top finish

2 x mountain downhill finish

3-4 x hilly/breakaway

Both of the individual time trials are short this year (33 km & 32 km) and with an extremely hard last week (one hilly ITT and three mountain stages in the Alps), it’s safe to say that the pure climbers have a good chance of succeeding this year. I have a good feeling about the first five riders in the general classification. Still, I only see two riders with a solid chance of winning Tour de France overall. My view on the riders’ chances can be categorized like this (the order is irrelevant):

Winner:	Podium:
Chris Froome	Richie Porte
Alberto Contador	Alejandro Valverde
	Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
Top5:	Top10:
Cadel Evans	Thibaut Pinot
Tejay van Garderen	Jakob Fuglsang
Jurgen Van den Broeck	Bauke Mollema
Ryder Hesjedal	Daniel Navarro
Nairo Quintana	Jean-Christophe Peraud
	Haimar Zubeldia
Top20:	Rein Taaramae
Rui Costa	Pierre Rolland
Damiano Cunego	Dan Martin
Andy Schleck
Wout Poels
Andrey Amador
Roman Kreuziger
Janez Brajkovic
Robert Gesink
Daniel Moreno
Arnold Jeannesson
Laurens Ten Dam
Igor Antón
Thomas De Gendt
Michal Kwiatkowski
Mikel Nieve Andrew Talansky

Chris Froome has been the best stage race rider this year and anything but a top performance from him in the Tour will be a big surprise. He is one of the best time trialists in the race and despite the short distances; he will be able to take a lot of times on this rivals against the clock. Had it been Wiggins, I would expect the climbers to take back the time in the mountains but Chris Froome will be very difficult to drop uphill. He was the strongest rider in the mountains in the last year’s Tour de France and he only seems to be stronger this year. Furthermore, he has Richie Porte to help him. 

Porte has taken a big step up the ladder this season with his overall win in Paris-Nice and his second place (behind Froome) in Dauphiné. Porte’s next big individual target is the Giro d’Italia 2014 but that doesn’t stop him from talking about a podium spot in this year’s Tour. The time trials are definitely in Porte’s favor but I don’t think Team Sky can make a double (1^st & 2^nd) like last year. Still, third place overall doesn’t seem unlikely. It all depends on how strong Froome is in the last week. If he gets isolated early, naturally he’ll have to use Porte early as well. If not, Team Sky probably end with two riders on the podium again this year.

Many are questioning Alberto Contador’s chances. This year he hasn’t been as strong as earlier but what people tend to forget is that this has all been part of a bigger plan. Read more about that here and see what his teammate Jesus Hernandez says about Contador's chances. It's also important to remember that Contador's results haven't been bad at all. He was 4^th overall in San Luis, 2^nd overall in Oman, 3^rd overall in Tirreno, 5^th overall Pais Vasco and 10^th overall in Dauphiné. Contador said he was only on 75 % in Dauphiné and I think he would have won the final stage had he not waited for Michael Rogers. Many would probably have a different view on Contador’s chances had he won that last stage and I guess that’s why so many don’t think he stands a chance against Chris Froome. Personally, I think it will be a close fight between Froome and Contador but it all depends on how much time Contador loses to Froome in the time trials.

As my list reveals I expect Valverde & Purito to be fighting for a spot on the final podium. This year’s route is as perfect as it gets for Purito. The time trials are short and the final one is very hilly. He will probably lose about four minutes to Froome against the clock but he has a chance of taking some of it back in the mountains and in the stages ending downhill. Few - if any - in the professional peloton can match Purito’s kick uphill and I won’t be surprised if he takes 10-15 seconds on Froome (thanks to late attacks close to the line) in a couple of the uphill finishes. Purito is also very good on the descents and knowing he needs to take back time, he should embrace every opportunity he gets. The most important thing for Purito this year is to get the overall place “he deserves”. Most likely he feels that he should have won both the Giro and the Vuelta last year and therefore he now hopes to end where he deserves. 2^nd or 8^th is not ‘that’ important it seems - as long as it matches his performance.

Alejandro Valverde has one of the strongest teams in the race to support him this year but that doesn’t help him much in the time trials. I think Movistar will be very close to Team Sky in the team time trial but in the two individual ones, Valverde will lose time. Therefore, he too needs to attack. His big goal is a spot on the podium in Paris and with super domestiques like Quintana and Rui Costa (and Amador) he can’t complain about the support. I doubt Valverde can drop Contador, Froome and Purito uphill but he will be able to drop many of the other contenders with help from his team and especially Nairo Quintana.

Stage 15, 18, 19 & 20.
Click for larger view.

The Colombian super climber could very well aim at Top5 himself this year but he knows the time is not right. He is still young and this year everything is build up around Valverde. Quintana has been preparing himself for the Tour home in Colombia for the last two months. Contrary to many of the Tour riders, he will arrive to Corsica without any recent race competition in his legs and I won’t be surprised if he loses time in the first week. That being said, don’t be surprised either if Quintana is fighting with Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen for the white jersey in the last week. The final week is so extremely hard this year and anything can happen. A couple of lost minutes from the first week is nothing compared to final days in the Alps.

Before the Giro d’Italia started this year, I doubted Cadel Evans chances of success, what a mistake! The Australian veteran had been talking about peaking in the Tour the whole season and therefore I couldn’t see him dig deep in the Giro. Still, he managed to finish third overall. 

The Giro was very hard this year though, despite the cancelled climbs, and once again I now doubt Evans’ chances. Maybe it’s a mistake but is it really possible - in modern cycling - to do Top3 in the Giro and Top3 in the Tour the same year? Especially with two such hard routes? Time will tell. 

BMC also have Tejay van Garderen to play but according to the American, he’s only here to help his captain. This is most likely Cadel Evans' last chance to lead a team in the Tour - aiming at the GC - and I think the team really want to back him up. Van Garderen still has about 10 years ahead of him on top level and sacrificing one year - and still doing well in the GC - shouldn't really be a big issue for him. 

There are many [equally] strong riders fighting for the Top10 places this year and instead of going through all of them (see my list above for that matter), I’ll leave you with a couple of jokers. First one is Daniel Navarro. After being one of Contador’s faithful helpers for many years, Navarro now has a chance to show his own potential. Saxo-Tinkoff didn’t want to keep Navarro at his current salary and when Cofidis were ready to make him captain, the choice wasn’t really that tough for the Spanish climber. So far it’s been a great match. Daniel Navarro finished 12^th overall in Paris-Nice, 16^th overall in Catalunya and latest 5^th overall in Dauphiné where he were among the strongest uphill.  Originally the plan for the Tour was to aim at a stage win but with the impressive performances in Dauphiné, Cofidis & Navarro now aim at the overall classification instead. The French team also have Rein Taaramae for the GC and together with Jerome Coppel and Christophe Le Mevel they have a very strong team to support Navarro. In fact, Cofidis are my outsider for the Team Classification this year.

I also expect a strong performance from Andrey Amador. He’s probably only ranked fourth in the Movistar team for this Tour de France but I think we will see a lot of him, especially in the third week. Amador is an excellent climber and like [teammate] Quintana, he’s been preparing himself at home in the mountains. The Irazú volcano [3500 meters above sea level] in Costa Rica is where Amador has been training and he showed in Tour de Suisse that he’s ready with a strong performance in the final time trial. In the Tour de France Andrey Amador hopes to hit a morning breakaway and take a stage win like he did in the Giro d’Italia last year. Naturally, helping Valverde is the number one priority but it can also be a tactical advantage for Movistar to have Amador in a breakaway. Contrary to many other climbers Amador is also very good against the clock which will help Movistar in the team time trial. I expect them to make Top3 that day.

Before I end this Preview, let's take a look at the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan was my big favorite last year and he turned out to be even stronger than expected. This year, he’s once again the favorite but if Mark Cavendish is back on his top level, it will be a close fight. I see at least six “sure” sprint stages and even though Sagan is fast, he’s not as fast as Cavendish, Greipel & Kittel. There are more points up for grab in the flat stages. That means if Cavendish wins four of five stages without Sagan making Top3, he will get a good advantage. Sagan will be in the mix some days where Cavendish can’t keep up though. Still, I think it will be very close this year. Also, both Sagan and Cavendish have high hopes of wearing the Yellow Jersey early in the race this year. Therefore, what will end as a fight for green most likely will start out as a fight for yellow!

Many people ask me about my picks for the four jerseys. I think both the Polka Dot Jersey and the White Jersey are very tough to call this year but if I had to, these would be my picks:

Yellow: Chris Froome
Green: Peter Sagan
Polka Dot: Damiano Cunego / or an Euskaltel rider
White: Nairo Quintana
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Team GC: Movistar

Again this year, there will be daily Stage Previews during the Tour. I know many of you would like them online early but I simply don't have time to publish them before 21:00 - 22:00 CET. 

The stages of this year's Tour de France are set to finish around 17:00 / 17:30 CET. If you find yourself without a TV, go to steephill.tv for live streams.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Modified stage profile. Not official but should be accurate.

As I already wrote in the overall preview, Stage 2 has been modified due to bad weather in the mountains. That means the early HC-climb Nufenenpass has been cancelled and the stage has been shortened from 160 to 117.2 km.

A short stage is a fast stage and without the climb in the beginning, the peloton will be starting out in high speed. Many riders will look to get in the breakaway and thereby have an advantage starting the final climb. Without bonus seconds on the line the GC contenders don’t have to focus on the stage win but I think it will come back together and end with one of the favorites winning on Crans Montana.

Crans Montana is a frequently used climb in Tour de Suisse. Last time the race finished here, Mauricio Soler won. The Colombian climber crashed horribly on the following stage but luckily, he survived. The stage win on Crans Montana was the last in Soler's way too short career. Movistar will be eager to pay tribute to Soler on Crans Montana and in Rui Costa they have a strong contender for the stag win. Also, teammate Andrey Amador is a good outsider with a late attack.

The climb itself is 16.3 km long and has an average gradient of about 6.5 %. The last couple of kilometers are the steepest with parts of 8.5 % and 7.2 % towards the line. I think Movistar will try to control the race and together with GreenEdge I doubt they will let a break get too far away. My joker for the overall classification Cameron Meyer took a lot of times on his rivals in the opening time trial and I think it will be very difficult to rip the yellow jersey off his shoulders on this stage.

It won’t be easy to beat Movistar but I think Thibaut Pinot is one of the few riders who can. The French climber has his eyes fixed on the Tour but that doesn’t mean he don’t race to win in Tour de Suisse. The hard race suits him fine and despite this being a short stage, he final climb is right up his alley. Pinot did very well in the opening time trial and after a strong performance in Bayern-Rundfahrt, I think he will be fighting for the win on Crans Montana.

My two personal jokers for the stage win are Tanel Kangert and Damiano Caruso. Kangert was one of the big revelations in this year’s Giro d’Italia and he still seems to be in great shape. He turned out to be one of the best helpers for Nibali in the mountains and he showed to be very strong when he took 5^th place in GP Gippingen last Thursday. Astana have Brajkovic in the race as well but the Slovenian may need a day or two before his legs are used to racing again. I think Astana will try to set-up Kangert for the stage win and he might as well pull it off.

Damiano Caruso wasn’t planned to ride the Giro d’Italia this year but after Ivan Basso got injured, Caruso had to change his race schedule and take part. He was rather invisible the first part of the race but as he raced into shape he finished the Giro in a very strong way. Caruso now hopes to do well in the overall classification in Tour de Suisse and to take a stage win along the way. There are many strong riders on the start list but if Caruso can ride as he did on the hilly time trial in the Giro (finished 3^rd), he will be up there for the win, I think.

Favorites: Rui Costa & Thibaut Pinot

Jokers: Tanel Kangert & Damiano Caruso

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Tour de Suisse 2013 / 8-16 June.

While Critérium du Dauphiné still is in its final face in France, the second Tour de France warm-up race, Tour de Suisse, is just about to start. 

The big favorites for the Tour are riding in Dauphine this year but that doesn’t mean we won’t get a great race to see in Switzerland. With three mountain stages, two individual time trials and four undulating sprint stages; every day will be important for the overall classification.

Unfortunately, there are already bad news. Stage 2 has been modified because of bad weather in the mountains and even though the final climb still stands, the hard start of the stage has been changed.

Looking at the start list I see at least five riders with a chance of winning Tour de Suisse overall. Tejay van Garderen, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, Ryder Hesjedal and Thibaut Pinot are all suited for the nine stages in this year’s edition. Especially TJ and Rui Costa will have an advantage with the two time trials.

Rui Costa won the race overall last year after winning the first stage uphill to Verbier. The strong Portuguese rider was under attack from every side in the final stages but thanks to teammate Alejandro Valverde, he managed to pull off the biggest win of his career. This year Rui Costa is back to defend his title and prove last year wasn’t one-time-thing. He won’t have Valverde to help him but riders like Amador, Karpets and Visconti (winner of two stages in the Giro d’Italia) should be enough. Rui Costa finished 3^rd overall in Tour de Romandie and I think he will make podium again in Switzerland this time. He’s strong uphill and downhill and will beat most of the other GC contenders in the final time trial.

The biggest threat to Rui Costa is Tejay van Garderen. The young American just won Tour of California last month and is obviously in great shape. Cadel Evans wants to lead BMC in the Tour this year but after a tough Giro d’Italia, I have my doubts if he will be strong enough. TJ turned out to be the strongest of the two riders last year and if he puts in another strong performance here, the BMC team will have to think hard about their pick for designated Tour captain. TJ isn’t the best climber in the race but he is strong enough to resist and stay close to the leader before the final time trial. It’s not a flat time trial this year though. The last 10 km are uphill with an average gradient of 9% but I don’t think any of the other GC contenders can beat TJ against the clock. There are no bonus seconds in this year’s Tour de Suisse and that means that if TJ can stay close to the favorites in the mountains, he can take back the lost time in the final time trial.

Team Blanco have already landed a new sponsor for the next two and half years (Belkin, starting from the Tour) so the pressure to perform is not as big as earlier. Still, they send a very strong team to Switzerland this year. The team have always done well here and with riders like Mollema, Sanchez, Nordhaug, Kruijswijk & Kelderman, I’m sure they will do something great. Mollema is the man for the general classification and being strong uphill, fast on the line and solid against the clock, I think he will be among the best uphill. Mollema is coming straight from a training camp in Sierra Nevada and even though that some times can result in mixed performances, I think he will be up there.

It’s difficult to rate Ryder Hesjedal. He came to the Giro in the something near the shape of his life but got sick. His legs were great in the beginning of the race but it’s never easy to say how they will respond after three weeks out of competition. Naturally, he is one of the big favorites if he’s ready again but with a mountain stage already on the second day, he can’t afford to start out too far of the pace.

I personally look forward to seeing what Thibaut Pinot has to offer in this race. The French climber showed a bit of his huge potential in last year’s Tour de France and this year he’s back to show more. Pinot is excellent on the hills and despite a somehow disappointing first half of the season, I think he will be gunning for the overall podium in Tour de Suisse. Pinot had high hopes for Tour de Romandie this year but only ended 12^th overall after the race organizers had to modify the big mountain stage. The Frenchman is still without a win this year and I think he will be eager to end that streak on the uphill finish on Stage 2. It’s a hard race and that suits Pinot just fine. His chances are never improved by two time trials but with the final one ending uphill, I think he will have good chances of making podium.

There are a long list of strong riders taking part in this year’s Tour de Suisse and as always in these Tour de France warm-up races we should see a couple of surprises. I think the final Top10 will be something like this:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Rui Costa

3. Bauke Mollema

4. Thibaut Pinot

5. Ryder Hesjedal

6. Peter Velits
7. Damiano Caruso

8. Janez Brajkovic

9. Simon Spilak

10. Diego Ulissi

Knocking on the door to Top10 I see riders like Kangert, Scarponi, Kreuziger, Dan Martin, Peraud, Dombrowski, Antón, De Greef, Monfort, Klöden & Roche. Also, notice that Andy Schleck is on the start list. He has already said he’s not going to win the Tour de France this year but he normally has a good day or two in Tour de Suisse. He may not be able to follow the best on the hills but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him attack from a far a couple of times.

As always, I have a joker for you. This time it’s Andrey Amador. He broke his collarbone - yes, again, third year in a row - when he crashed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege but he’s now ready to take on the second part of the season. It’s difficult to say how he will do without racing for almost two months but I have a feeling he will be up for it. The Costa Rican showed his great climbing legs in last year’s Giro d’Itlaia and did very well in Tirreno-Adriatico this year. He finished 8^th overall in the Italian stage race thanks to a surprisingly good time trial on the final day. Amador will start out this race as helper for Rui Costa but if he’s feeling good, I don’t see why Movistar shouldn’t end up with two riders in Top10 overall. Andrey Amador is also set to ride the Tour in support of Alejandro Valverde and he needs to show the team that he is up for the task.

Another good joker is Cameron Meyer. He's been doing better and better overall in the stage races the last years and the two time trials definitely favors the Australian. GreenEdge don't really have a team to support him in the mountains and that can be a problem. Still, I think he will be able to put in a great performance and end near Top10.

Contrary to Dauphiné, the stages in Tour de Suisse start rather late every day. That means the first rider won’t cross the finishing line until 18:30-19:00 CET. The two time trials end earlier though. Stage 1 around 16:45 and Stage 9 around 17:45.

For live coverage during the race check out steephill.tv.

Hope rising for Movistar

After the most tragic month in the history of the team, the hope and smiles now start to come back at Team Movistar. Juan Mauricio Soler's condition is getting better and better every day and green jersey aspirant José Joaquin Rojas has showed to be just as strong as we all wished for - Well, I know I did!

Rojas was the only one of the fast guys able to follow Thor Hushovd on stage1 and afterwards he followed up with strong performances on stage3 and 4. On top of that both Andrey Amador and Beñat Intxausti (read my pre-tour interview with Beñat here) seem to be recovering well from their injuries caused by the crashes on the first stage. Beñat Intxausti even managed to stick with the favorites on Mur de Bretagne! Hopefully he will be back at 100% for the mountains - keep an eye on him...

The next four stages all look good - on paper - for the new Spanish champion Rojillas, and I really, really, hope he can give Team Movistar that Tour-stage that would mean so much for everyone involved! Ánimo!