Tour de France: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

 As expected, a breakaway made it on Stage 14 and now the focus is back on the GC riders. This last week of this year’s Tour de France will be extremely tough and it starts out with a killer mountain stage finishing on the legendary Mont Ventoux.

The Route

In the past, the stages on the French National Day were made for the breakaways. This year it’s different. Stage 15 is the longest stage of this year’s Tour and despite finishing on Mont Ventoux, the first 221 km are more of less flat. This means it’s highly unlike a break will make it all way. It will be another hot day in the saddle with temperatures over 30°c and after two hard stages, many will hope for a quiet start of the day.

A tailwind will help a morning breakaway get a good gap but the peloton will make sure it won’t get out of control. The intermediate sprint is located in Malaucène 15 km from the bottom of Mont Ventoux. Since the stage hasn’t been very hard until now, most of the sprinters should be able to fight for points for the Green Jersey.

The Finish

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux.

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux have an average gradient of 7.5 %. The climb starts out quite soft with the first five kilometers not getting over 4-5 %. From here on the road really kicks up with percentages over 10 %. It’s always very windy after getting out of the forest into the moon landscape and this year is no different. The riders will be fighting a headwind and this will make it very difficult to attack and stay away alone. The last right hand turn towards the finishing line is the final struggle of the day and with more than 10 % you need to have something left in the tank if you’re not already alone in front.

The Favorites

The last time the Tour de France had a stage finish on Mont Ventoux, Juanma Garate won in front of Tony Martin after a long breakaway. Starting on Mont Ventpux, the break seemed doomed but since Andy Schleck didn’t want to attack without his brother, Fränk, the GC riders killed the stage and let Garate and Martin stay in front. I don’t think that will happen this year.

Chris Froome already has a good gap to his rivals and they need to take use of every opportunity they get. Froome’s rivals simply have to attack and gain time and everybody wants to win on this mythical climb. Chris Froome himself had his first - ever - rendezvous with Mont Ventoux just two months ago when he went to test his legs on the climb. Riders like Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck already know what to expect of Mont Ventoux and I think they will have a little advantage on Froome. However, it doesn’t help much if they can’t drop him uphill - and I don’t think they can.

The way I see it, Chris Froome is the big favorite for the stage win. He lost a minute to Contador and Mollema in the crosswind and I’m sure he will be eager to take back the lost time time and show who’s the strongest rider in the race. Team Sky are missing Vasil ‘Chloroform’ Kiryienka and Edvald Boasson Hagen but they still have David Lopez, Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte to set the pace and keep Chris Froome in front. It’s not ideal but it has to do. If not Froome, I think the stage winner will be Spanish.

Movistar will most likely make the race hard but they only have Nairo Quintana for the overall classification. The Colombian super climber will probably put in a couple of strong attacks but I think Froome will respond. He knows can’t let Quintana get away. On the other hand, if Alejandro Vavlerde tries an attack I doubt Froome will chase him down instantly. Valverde has good memories from Mont Ventoux. In 2009, he took the yellow jersey in Critérium Dauphiné (which he later won overall) on the stage to Mont Ventoux. Back then, he ‘gave’ the stage win to Sylvester Szmyd but this time Valverde isn’t giving anything away. Tour de France was his big goal this season and he lost it all when a rider broke his wheel on Stage 13. Movistar are out for revenge and with a fast finish - should it come to that - I think Valverde will be tough to beat if Froome is just focusing on keeping the jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with Froome and Valverde in front.

Also, look out for Andy Schleck. He’s getting stronger and stronger every day and he may have some unfinished business with Mont Ventoux from the last time he was here. The headwind won’t favor Andy Schleck but on a good day he could take another big stage win in the Tour.

The Jokers

The French riders will be eager to get something out of this Tour de France, especially on La Fête Nationale (Bastille Day). When the route was revealed Thibaut Pinot was my first pick for the stage win but now I’m not so sure. He seemed to arrive to the Tour in great shape but he had nothing in his legs in the Pyrenees. Lately he’s been getting better but apparently he has some kind of throat problems now. If he’s back at his 2012 level, he will be a dangerous outsider but I doubt it. Pierre Rolland is another strong French candidate and contrary to Pinot, Rolland seems to have great legs. A stage win on Mont Ventoux will help Pierre Rolland significantly in his fight to keep the Polka Dot Jersey and the other GC riders don’t have to worry about him. Rolland is 25:33 minutes behind Froome in the overall classification and he only focuses on stage wins and the KOM competition.

I have high hopes for Daniel Martin too. The strong Irishman has already won a big mountain stage in this year’s Tour de France and he’s been “saving bullets” for Mont Ventoux the last couple of days. Martin is 11^th overall so he won’t be giving a card blanche. Still, he won’t be the first rider Froome, Contador and Mollema will start chasing down either. Daniel Martin says he’s a big fan of the cycling history and naturally winning on a famous climb like Mont Ventoux would be amazing. He seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he has a strong kick too. I don’t know if Daniel Martin still fits the “joker” category but if so, he’s my joker for the stage win.

So. To sum it up: Chris Froome is the strongest rider uphill but may not have the best team. Furthermore, his primary target is to keep the yellow jersey. Alejandro Valverde is eager to take revenge and his Movistar team is very strong. Valverde is now out of the GC and the other favorites won’t chase him down right away. Not even Belkin…

Favorites: Chris Froome & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Pierre Rolland & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 15:

Just to get you into the right mood, take a look at the Mont Ventoux stage from 2000 when Marco Pantani won after an amazing comeback and series of furious attacks in the end:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

Bauke Mollema timed his attack perfectly on Stage 2 when he caught Ryder Hesjedal on the final kilometer and soloed away to win the stage. After the stage, Mollema was quick to point to the overall podium as his new target in the race, something I had him down for in my overall preview as well. Unfortunately the Dutch climber got a 20 seconds penalty after the stage since he had gotten a bottle of water from his team car within the last 20 km. Mollema is now 34 seconds after Cameron Meyer in the GC and that means he needs to attack more the up-coming days.

Stage 3 is 204.9 km long but the first 165 km are more or less flat. As the riders enter Meiringen the road kicks up with a small category 4 climb on Grimselstrasse. The 1.9 km with an average of 5.6 % won’t make a big selection but the following category 1 climb will indeed.

The 12.2 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.3 % but the climb is actually a lot steeper. The average gradient goes down because of a flat part of 1.2 km halfway to the top. The climb starts out with 7 % and has a part of almost 4 km with 9.5 % before it evens out. The last 2.8 km have an average gradient of
7.5 % and I expect a group of maximum 20 riders to reach the top together. There are 19.4 km to go from the top of the climb and if a lonely rider or a small group get a gap over the top, they won’t be easy to catch.

The first part of the descent is technical but the second part is easy and very fast. The final two kilometers are flat and straight out towards the finishing line. For those of you who watched the Giro d’Italia, this stage reminds me of Stage 16 to Ivrea. Beñat Intxausti won that stage after breaking away on the final flat part and if this one doesn’t end in a sprint within a reduced group, it could very well end like in Ivrea.

Giovanni Visconti came out of the Giro with two stage wins and he is still looking very strong. He finished 9^th on Stage 2 and is now 4^th overall. I doubt he will be able to keep his Giro-shape the whole week but he seems eager to get another win and it could very well be here. Visconti has a newfound strong mentality and he now knows he can win. He won a similar stage in the Giro just a couple of weeks ago and to me he is one of the big favorites for the win in Meiringen.

On paper, this third stage could also be another one for Team Blanco. With riders like Luis León Sanchez, Steven Kruijswijk, Lars-Petter Nordhaug, Wilco Kelderman and Bauke Mollema they have a very strong team. Mollema is not only good on the climbs he is also fast on the line in a reduced group. His moral is great after his stage win but he is probably also eager to take revenge for the 20 seconds penalty. If Blanco can make the race hard and keep Mollema up front, he might as well make it two in a row.

The final descent. A is the top of the climb. B is the finishing line.

Ryder Hesjedal and Daniel Martin were two of the strongest rider on the final climb on Stage 2 and I think they will both try something on this stage. Hesjedal showed he was good on the descents when he attacked numerous times in the Giro and Daniel Martin is another rider with a good sprint in a reduced group. Martin joined every move when Hesjedal was in front on Stage 2 and that was even without being able to breathe properly. If Dan Martin feels better in the rain on Stage 3, he is another strong candidate for the win.

One of the big favorites for the overall win, Rui Costa, couldn’t follow the best riders in the final on Stage 2 but I think he will only get better. He shouldn’t have problems staying in front on this final climb and with a descent towards the line, he is another one of the favorites. Like Visconti, Mollema and Martin, also Rui Costa is fast on the line and if a group of 20 riders arrive together it will be difficult to pick a winner.

With a tricky beginning of the final descent and rainy conditions, I doubt the riders aiming at the Tour de France will take any chances. Instead, the riders coming from the Giro may take a few more risks and that is something that favors Giovanni Visconti. It also favors my joker for Stage 2, Tanel Kangert. The Estonian Champion probably attacked too early in the headwind on the final climb but he seems very strong and I think he will try again on Stage 3. 

Favorite: Giovanni Visconti
Joker: Tanel Kangert

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Flèche Wallonne: Preview & Favorites

This mini-classic is the most explosive one of the three Ardennes races this week. The steep Mur de Huy always makes for an exciting finish and like the last nine years, I’m sure it will all come down to the final 1300 meters this time.

It’s 10 years ago Igor Astarloa won Flèche Wallone after a big morning break managed to keep the peloton at bay, and even though Roman Kreuziger’s win in Amstel Gold Race could be an indicator of another break making it, I highly doubt it. Phillipe Gilbert is eager to get his first win in the rainbow jersey and together with the Colombia duo Sergio Henao & Nairo Quintana he is the man to beat on Wednesday.

BMC have been very strong lately and Phillipe Gilbert seems to back at his best. He will probably never going to be as strong as in 2011 but without Purito Rodriguez [at this moment Purito isn’t sure he’s able to ride after his crash in Amstel Gold Race], it difficult to pick another winner. No one was able to follow Gilbert on Cauberg last Sunday and even though Mur de Huy is a lot steeper, it still showed the strength of Gilbert right now.

In 2010 Igor Antón and Alberto Contador attacked early on Mur de Huy and got a nice little gap before Cadel Evans and Purito caught them near the top. Evans won the race back then and I think this year’s edition will have some of the same scenario. Sergio Henao and Nairo Quintana don’t stand a chance against Gilbert in ‘sprint’ on the final meters and they both know they need to get away on the steep part in order to win. Both were outstanding in Vuelta Pais Vasco earlier this month, especially on the steep gradients, and I would be surprised if none of the two tries to get away on the parts of 17%. Phillipe Gilbert knows he probably won’t be able to follow the Colombians on these gradients but if he can minimize the gap before the final ‘flat’ (5%) part, I still think he can come back and win the race.

Another strong contender is Alejandro Valverde. Just like at the World Champions last year, he wasn’t very well positioned when Gilbert attacked last Sunday, but this time he managed to close the gap quickly and win the sprint for 2^nd place. I think Liege-Bastogne-Liege is more suited for Valverde and it would make sense for him to pay back Quintana a little for all the hard work the Colombian has done for Valverde the last year. Still, don’t be surprised if Valverde manages to hang onto Gilbert and sprint for the win.

My two personal jokers for Flèche Wallone this year are Igor Antón and Daniel Martin. As mentioned earlier, Igor Antón put in a strong attack in 2010 (ended 4^th) and this year he’s aiming to do the same. His condition has increased significantly the last month or so and with the recent success for Euskaltel, he should be proper motivated to do well. Antón has big ambitions for the last two Ardennes races and if he enters Mur de Huy in a good position, he could very well end up fighting for the win again.

Mur de Huy. 1,3 km / 9,3% avg.
Photo from: climbbybike.com

This is also an important week for Daniel Martin. He was keen on showing his good shape in Amstel Gold Race, but crashed before the final. The Irish climber normally feeds on success and with his impressive overall win in Volta Catalunya, his confident should still be great heading into the last two Ardennes. races Martin reports he’s fine despite his crash last Sunday and I think he will end up doing something great in Flèche Wallone. 

Garmin have Ryder Hesjedal in the race too, but if Daniel Martin is still in front when reaching Mur de Huy, he should be the card to play. Not only does he climb very well he is also very fast on the line. He managed to keep Purito and Quintana behind after a long breakaway when he won the mountain stage in Catalunya and shows he’s not playing around. If an outsider ends up winning Flèche Wallone, like Roman Kreuziger won Amstel Gold Race, I think that outsider will be Daniel Martin.

Peter Sagan deserves to be mention as well, but I doubt he can follow the best on the steep parts. He suffered from cramps in the final of Amstel Gold Race and having never done Mur de Huy before, I don’t think he can win Flèche Wallone. The great shape Sagan showed in Brabantse Pijl can’t just disappear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he either attacks from afar or ends up helping his teammates Damiano Caruso and Moreno Moser.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Podium pick: Sergio Henao

Jokers: Igor Antón & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Favorites for Paris-Nice

This year's route for Paris-Nice.

The first big important stage race of the season is finally here. A lot of hilly stages and two time trials, the last one on Col d’Eze, make it difficult to pick out one grand favorite, simply because there are so many contenders this time.

One could argue that the course favors riders like Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, but with steep stages finishes like the one on Mende, suddenly Alejandro Valverde becomes the favorite – or what? Here is my view on the favorites for Paris-Nice 2012.

Winner candidates
I’m changing the set-up for my usual “Favorites”-pieces a bit, so instead of picking out three guys I will let you know which riders I see have a possible change of winning the race. First of those is naturally Alejandro Valverde. He was super strong in Andalucía and even though the peloton is stronger in Paris-Nice, I still find three stages with a finish perfect for Valverde. Remember there are 10 bonus seconds for each stage win. Before his ban Valverde had developed some pretty good time trial skills and I know he has been working hard on improving in this discipline during his ban. Still I doubt he is back at his former level against the clock and compared to some of the other strong riders, I think he will lose valuable time on the last stage.

One of the guys Valverde will lose time to is Bradley Wiggins. The British champion did an outstanding job in Volta ao Algarve, working hard for Richie Porte on the mountain stage and beating Tony Martin while winning the time trial. In February Wiggins said he was feeling stronger than ever before this time at year and if he can keep track of Valverde and minimize the gap on Mende he has a very good change of taking his first big stage race win.

Tony Martin won the race last year, but that was mainly because of his class in the long time trial. This year the two time trials both count less than 10 km and the climbing part definitely doesn’t favor Tony Martin compared to Wiggins and the others. Tony Martin still did well in Volta ao Algarve and if a dog hadn’t crossed the road in the time trial, making Tony Martin hit the brakes, I’m sure he would have won that stage. That means the shape is good and even though he may not win Paris-Nice this year, you mustn’t count him out too early.

Now it’s getting interesting, because here is my joker for the overall win; Rein Taaramae! Everyone following me know I have high expectations for Taaramae this year, but so does he. “I’m here to win, nothing else. The course suits me very well and the short, hilly time trials are in my favor. The whole team is working for me and I think I can win” – that’s not Valverde, Wiggins or Martin saying this, but Estonian Rein Taaramae – look out for him! I will honestly be very surprised if Taaramae doesn’t end on the final podium and from there everything is possible!

Another outsider for the overall win is Janez Brajkovic. The Astana captain hasn’t many race kilometers in the legs so far this year but this is a course that really suits the Slovenian. Brajkovic is good against the clock and on his best days he can stay with the top-climbers as well. Anything but a spot on the final podium with Janez Brajkovic would be a lack of ambitions from the Astana team and if Brajkovic is ready, I think he could surprise quite a few with an early season win.

Last rider on my paper with the status “winner candidate” next to him is Andreas Klöden. It may be a conservative pick, but Klöden is always good in Paris-Nice and the two time trials are very good for him. He knows Col d’Eze extremely well and if he rides like last year, he will be difficult to shake off. My only concern is that Klöden wasn’t very good in Volta ao Algarve last month, but if he is back at his normal “early-season-level” he should be a strong contender for the overall win too.

Well, that was my 6 winner candidates. I could go on with guys like Tejay Van Garderen, Levi Leipheimer, Richie Porte, Denis Menchov and Jerome Coppel who all are great in the time trials and the uphill sections, but I had to stop somewhere. So to make a long story short, if possible at this point, here is how I think the final Top10 will be:

1. Rein Taaramae
2. Bradley Wiggins
3. Alejandro Valverde
4. Janez Brajkovic
5. Andreas Klöden
6. Tony Martin
7. Tejay Van Garderen
8. Jerome Coppel
9. Bauke Mollema
10. Richie Porte

I picked out Oscar Gatto as a surprising winner of Strade Bianche and I keep on with the surprises in taking Rein Taaramae to win Paris-Nice. Oscar Gatto almost pulled it off, hadn’t it been for an outstanding Fabian Cancellara. Let’s see if Rein Taaramae has more luck. Many pick Alejandro Valverde as their favorite, but as I said, I still doubt his time trial skills a little bit. One thing is training another is racing and Alejandro Valverde hasn’t really been racing many time trials recently. Still, if his old time trial abilities are intact, of course he is the number one favorite to win Paris-Nice.

It’s going be a very close race this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if only seconds separate the three riders on the final podium.

Team Saxo Bank - Ghost Team

Team boss Bjarne Riis.

Ever since Alberto Contador's case started a large amount of great riders have been signing contracts with Team Saxo Bank as his replacement or as luxury gregario in the mountains. At least in the press. Fact is that Team Saxo Bank hasn't signed a single one of all these riders.

Some riders they didn't have the funds to sign while other riders never were more than just a rumor. I thought it could be interesting to take a look at some of the riders who turned out to be nothing but ghosts.

Tony Martin (signed with Omega Pharma-Quickstep)
Bjarne Riis was very interested in signing Tony Martin when Team Highroad closed, but even though Saxo Bank had a an extra bag of money ready, the German rider decided to go elsewhere.

Thor Hushovd (signed with BMC)
It was very obvious during last year's Tour de France that Bjarne Riis would have loved to secure Thor Hushovd as Saxo Bank rider in 2012, but when Thor Hushovd saw the amount of zeros BMC could put on his paycheck he chose to join Phillipe Gilbert.

Denis Menchov (signed with Katusha)
Like last time Denis Menchov needed a new team, the press was fast to link the Russian rider with Bjarne Riis. According to the rumors Menchov had already had several conversations with Riis about a contract, but with an annual payment of €1.8 Euros, Riis didn't have the money (nor the desire?) to sign Menchov on for 2012.

Juanjo Cobo (signed with Movistar)
After winning the Vuelta España Juanjo Cobo signed a €800.000 contract with GEOX just to see the shoe company withdraw their sponsorship a few days later. Rumors had it that Cobo would head to Team Saxo Bank instead, but I think everyone 'involved' in that knew that would never happen.

Stefano Garzelli (re-signed with Acqua e Sapone)
Recently Stefano Garzelli was linked to Team Saxo Bank after his Italian team Acqua e Sapone didn't get invited to the Giro d'Italia where Garzelli had planned to end his career. After La Gazzetta bought the story, Garzelli himself said that it in fact was last summer he was negotiating with Team Saxo Bank, but ended up staying at Acqua e Sapone anyway. For what reason I don't know, but I guess he owed the team that much and of course thought they would be invited to the Giro.

Vladimir Karpets (signed with Movistar)
After a disappointing time with his fellow countrymen at Katusha, Vladimir Karpets felt the time was ready for a change. According to a recent interview with French site Velochrono, Karpets was very tempted to sign a contract with Bjarne Riis and Team Saxo Bank but decided to go to Movistar and his old boss Eusebio Unzué. "If I hadn't sign the contract with Movistar I would been going to Saxo Bank", he says. Karpets would have been a great help for Contador, plus a good rider for the one week stage races. Shame Bjarne Riis couldn't convince him.

Damiano Cunego (re-signed with Lampre)
Before the beginning of the 2011 season Damiano Cunego had a chance to change team for the first time in his career but decided to stay loyal to Lampre. The former Giro d'Italia rider had an offer from Bjarne Riis on the table but like all the riders above the ink never touched the paper - at least not the paper saying Team Saxo Bank at the top.

Other riders linked to Bjarne Riis and Team Saxo Bank are Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde, Christopher Horner & Jakob Fulgsang (likely to sign next year) just to name a few. It's true that if Alberto Contador is a superior this year as he was in the Giro d'Italia last year, he doesn't need that one last man in the mountains, but it sure wouldn't have made his chances of success any smaller if just one of the mentioned riders was there to help him.