TDU Preview - Stage 5

It’s time to settle the general classification. As always this will come down to the bonus seconds but compared to last year, this time there are many riders with a good chance of ending on the final podium.

It’s clear that right now Geraint Thomas and Tom-Jelte Slagter are the two big favorites for the overall win, especially since Thomas dropped everybody else on the steepest part of Corkscrew Road and Slagter has turned out to be the fastest among the climbers. Still it would be foolish to count out anybody from Top13 just yet.

Last year the two strongest riders on Willunga Hill were Javier Moreno and Tiago Machado and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these two took the win this time. Machado attacked very early last year and was caught with 1 km to go and I think he will be eager to take revenge. Radioshack have a super strong team for this stage with George Bennet, Ben Hermans and Tiago Machado all in the Top10 overall plus they have Jens Voigt and Jesse Sergent to set the tempo on the flat part. And hey, don’t forget Andy Schleck is here too. If he was to show his face at any point in this race, now would be the time to do it in order to help his team mates.

I know Tiago Machado is very motivated and that he believes he can win both the stage and race on Willunga Hill, but he still needs to shake of the rest of the great climbers. Last year Javier Moreno absolutely murdered the rest of the favorites’ intentions of attacking when the set a furious pace for team leader Alejandro Valverde and now it’s Moreno’s turn to get paced by a strong team. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada, Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador will all be ready to pull uphill on for the Andalusian climber while José Joaquin Rojas and José Ivan Gutierrez can control the peloton on the flat part like they did last year.

Team Sky will probably try to control the race as much as they can but near the coast it won’t be easy in the cross wind. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t been on top of his game yet in this race, but he needs to do at least as well as last year on Willunga Hill to help Thomas get the overall win.

Personally I think this stage is perfect for Tom-Jelte Slagter if his Blanco team can manage to keep it together until the final kilometers. He has another young and strong climber, Wilco Kelderman by his side to help out and the average gradient of 7,6% on Willunga Hill should be in his favor. Furthermore Slagter showed in Stirling that he is the fastest man uphill right now, so if Machado, Thomas and others don’t drop him before the line he could very well end up winning both the stage and the race.

With the bonus seconds being so important I doubt the peloton will let a breakaway steal the win. Well, Team Sky would probably like to, but Blanco, Radioshack and Movistar will all work hard to prevent it. Therefore it’s also difficult to point out a joker who hasn’t shown much yet. Still I think Spanish climber, Rafael Valls will be a good pick for a top result on Willunga Hill. He’s currently sitting 15^th overall - 31 seconds after Geraint  Thomas - but so far the finishes haven’t been in his favor. Valls is a real climber and he needs an uphill finish to show his talent. He’s seems to be getting better and better every day and I think he will be among the first on the top of Willunga Hill.

What about Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans, you might ask. Well, Gerrans doesn't seem to have the same  legs as last year and I honestly think Gilbert will lack a little explosivity on Willunga Hill when the real climbers go for the GC.

  

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter / Tiago Machado

Joker: Rafael Valls

TDU Preview - Stage 2

As predicted nobody could touch Andre Greipel on stage 1, but Arnaud Démare sure was the strongest of the rest, taking 2^nd place after an impressive kick in the final. Now it’s time to switch focus from the sprinters to the puncheurs as Tour Down Under takes on the first real struggles for the GC contenders.

Corkscrew Road is a steep one to get over this early in the season and despite it only being 2,4 km the average gradient of 9,5% will make a huge impact on the final classification. Every team with GC ambitions will try to deliver their guy in front and with a  super fast descent towards the climb and a narrow turn as it starts, we are in for a hectic - and probably very chaotic – final kilometers before it goes uphill.

Looking at the climb the steepest part is at beginning with sections of 20% as the riders later struggle through 4 hairpins before it evens out (about 5%) near the top. The Australian National Team have been training on these roads many times, so you can use all the local riders will be eager to try their luck. Especially Simon Gerrans who seemed very happy with taking 3 bonus seconds on stage 1. So did Phillipe Gilbert and I think it will be a fight between these two and a handful of other riders for the win in Rostrevor.

It will be a fast finish as the last 7 kilometers from the top of Corkscrew Road are downhill towards the finishing line and according to the race organizers, riders are set to reach a speed of almost 100 km/h on their way to the line. Still the wind can be an issue as a head wind will in the valley will make it difficult for a small group to keep the peloton at bay.

Except for the Australian riders you have to keep an eye on the Movistar team. My pre-pick for the final podium - and a strong contender for the this stage - Eros Capecchi, stroke out on Stage 1 (lost 1:19 min after preparing the sprint for JJ Rojas) so I’m not sure what to make of him, even though the finish is perfect for his characteristics. He could be man for a morning break, but with the bonus seconds being so important it will be very difficult for an early breakaway to make it. Guys like Javier Moreno, José Herrada and Giovanni Visconti all have what it takes to attack in this terrain, but again, it won’t be easy to drop Gerrans and Gilbert.

Edvald Boasson Hagen must be mentioned among the big favorites for the stage too, but he needs to stay with the explosive riders on the steep parts of Corkscrew Road. One could argue that he's strong enough on the descent to catch up, but don't forget that Gilbert too is very good on the downhill sections. Another chance for EBH is if ends up in a sprint, but unless there's a head wind on the final kilometers I doubt it will come down to that.

Thomas De Gendt showed he wants to challenge the favorites in the GC as he took bonus seconds on stage 1 as well and being stronger than normally this early in the season, he could be a dangerous outsider for the stage and for the overall classification. In my “Favorites”-piece I’ve put down Tom-Jelte Slagter for a top5 spot in the GC and I think he will try to attack on Corkscrew Road. He’s strong on the steep parts and actually fast on the line too. If anyone was to drop Gerrans and Gilbert on Corkscrew Road my money would be on Slagter or Moreno.

If you are looking for a super joker, try Tim Wellens. The young Belgian is a great climber and fast on the line as well. Lotto-Belisol have been in Australia for a while, getting ready for Tour Down Under and I wouldn't be surprise to see Wellens mingle with the best on Corkscrew Road. 

Winnerpicks: Phillipe Gilbert / Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Javier Moreno / Tom-Jelte Slagter

Vuelta Preview - Stage 3

If you have been following the Vuelta a Pais Vasco the last years the finish on Alto de Arrate won’t be unknown to you. Samuel Sanchez has won here the last three times but also Purito has proven to be strong on this climb.

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before Alto de Arrate and with the stage only being 155,3 km long we are in for another hard day - especially in this extreme heat. Most likely a group of 4-5 riders will get away early and fight for the KOM points but I’m pretty sure it will all come back together on the final climb. An important factor in this Vuelta is the bonus seconds on the finishing line and with 12 seconds to the winner you can be sure that the overall favorite will do everything they can to take the stage win.

Alto de Arrate. 2 km to go from the top.

Alberto Contador already showed on stage 2 how important the bonus seconds are to him, when he took 2 seconds in front of his rivals and being only 14 seconds after the GC, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over the Red jersey from Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo after the stage. Personally I think it will be a fight between Contador and Purito on Alto de Arrate and if they arrive together Purito will win the stage having the strongest sprint. As Samuel Sanchez has shown time after time it’s essential to be first in the last corner with 250 meters to go and Purito knows that as he took 2^nd place after Sanchez earlier this year. 

Alejandro Valverde is a bit of dark horse as this finish suits him very well, but wasn’t really set to do the Vuelta until the very last moment. If he’s ready this could be his day - as he would get the leader’s jersey too - but I have more faith in Purito to be honest.

As said I expect this to be a fight for the stage win between the overall favorites but if I should mention a joker it would be Javier Moreno from Movistar. Moreno finally got his chance with a ProTour team this year when he signed with Movistar and he showed right away how strong he is on the uphill sections when he - all alone - railed back all breakaway attempt on Willunga Hill so Valverde could sprint to victory.  Moreno has been great the entire season, latest in Vuelta a Burgos, and if he gets the green light I’m sure he will try an attack on Arrate.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Javi Moreno

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Romain Sicard

Explanation: The French veteran is going for a fifth successive king of the mountains title but given the brutal parcours this year, Moncoutie will need to rack up the points as early as possible. It remainds to be seen how he’s riding following that nasty fall in the Tour, but Moncoutie may be tempted to puit down a marker today. Alejandro Valverde was a tempting choice for the win because he seems to be riding into some form – plus he would clearly like the idea of wearing red on his return to the Vuelta after a three-year absence. For my wildcard, how about Romain Sicard? The French rider from Bayonne is a tidy climber and this is the only stage that ventures into the Basque region so expect a sea of orange on the final Alto de Arrate. That said, Igor Anton and Amets Txurruka are probably more likely options... while Juan Manuel Garate might find some form in his old legs on the Arrate.