World Championship - Road Race Preview & Favorites

It’s finally time. This Sunday, the elite men’s road race is on and we are in for quite a show. It’ the most open World Championship in a while and with a rainy weather forecast; anything can happen!

In total, the race is 272.2 km long. The day starts in Lucca and from here; the riders have 100 km to overcome before they reach Florence. There are two climbs on this first part; Montecarlo (3.75 km / 3.5 %) and San Baronto (3.9 / 7.1 %). These two climbs won’t make for a selection but especially San Baronto will serve as an appetizer of what waits the riders later on.

When reaching Florence the riders starts on 10 laps of 16.57 km. The first two kilometers are flat but then the road kicks up. The Fiesole climb is 4.37 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The gradients barely drop below 7 % the last 1500 meters and this is where we find the steep parts of over 10 %. There are 10 km to the line from the top of Fiesole. The descent starts out very technical but then gets easier with nice and soft turns. However, there is a very steep part and then a difficult 90° left turn with about 8.7 km to go. If the rains, riders chasing to get back have to pay close attention to this corner in order not to see their chances disappear in a crash.

The following 2 km are fast very fast and after a sharp right hand turn, it’s time to climb again. The 600 meters on Via Salviati have an average gradient of 10 % and include a part of 200 meters with over 16 % towards the top. There are only 5 km to go from the top of Via Salviati and as the final part is very fast, it won’t be easy to catch a small group of riders if they get a gap over the top. With a less than 3 km to the line, the riders turn left and the following 150-200 meters are uphill with parts of 10 %. This may be the last place to attack if you want to solo away. The road kicks up a little again as the rider cross the railroad and after a 180° corner, the final 1500 meters are flat and straight out towards the line.

Everybody seems to have a different opinion on the best way to prepare for this World Championship and which riders it favors. It’s hard to keep track but here is some of the statements:

•           You need to ride Vuelta España.
•           This is a route for the climbers.
•           You need to be fast.
•           You need to be explosive on the climbs.
•           Don’t count on the Vuelta riders, the last week was too hard.
•           You need to be able to win on this kind of distance.

Confused? I understand. It may not look like there is a rider who can tick off every single criteria. However, there is one. More about him a little later.

First, let’s look at the teams with the most responsibility this Sunday. Spain has the strongest team (9 riders) with Contador, Purito and Valverde but home favorites Italy (9) isn’t far behind with the likes of Scarponi, Ulissi and Nibali. The Netherlands (Gesink, Mollema, Slagter), Switzerland (Cancellara, Albasini) and Colombia (Quintana, Uran, Henao, Betancur) also have nine riders at the start. So does France but I would be surprised to see them start working in the peloton. The French riders have to be aggressive in the attacks and with Pinot, Barguil and Voeckler they have enough firepower to put in a couple of strong attacks on the final laps.

Peter Sagan (Slovakia) has five teammates to help him, among these are the Velits brothers, Peter and Martin, plus Sagan’s own brother Juraj. Sagan would like this race to be as easy as possible and hope for a big group together on the final lap. Therefore I doubt Slovakia will put much effort into chasing the breaks early on. Last year’s winner, Philippe Gilbert and Belgium have seven riders at the start this time and compared to last year, they will be more aggressive. Gilbert needs a hard race with a big selection and if so, he will probably have to attack on Via Salviati on the last lap and get away with a couple of riders. This is his best chance of winning in Florence.

Profile of the circuit in Florence. 10 laps of 16.57 km.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara is the number one favorite. The Swiss Time Machine pays 3 to 1. It’s nothing new that Cancellara has a red circle around the World Championship but usually it’s focused around the time trial. This year, Fabian Cancellara has put everything into becoming World Champion in the road race instead. He has lost some kilos and in the Vuelta España, he showed to be in great shape on the climbs. As a warm-up for the road race, Cancellara has done both the team time trial (last Sunday) and the individual time trial (last Wednesday). Radioshack finished 4^th in the TTT while Cancellara took the bronze medal in the ITT, only two seconds form second place. There is no doubt that Fabian Cancellara is in great shape right now but is he strong enough to keep stay with the punchy climbers on Via Salviati? Remember, in total this race has more than 60 km of climbing. It’s not “just” a usually tough one day race, it’s a regular mountain stage. If Cancellara has to fight his way back after both Fiesole and Via Salviati, how much energy will he has left for the expected late attack in the final On the other hand, the U23 winner Matej Mohoric said he didn’t think the course was that hard and makes Cancellara one of the two big favorites.

The other top favorite is Peter Sagan. Sagan usually don’t have any problems on these kind of climbs and to make sure he doesn’t get dropped, he went to train hard in the mountains earlier this season. It quickly paid off and in Tour de Suisse, he actually won the mountain stage with the steepest climb in the race. Peter Sagan does well in the short time trials, he can sprint and he can solo away to win as well. It’s difficult to find any flaws but if there is one, it may be the distance. Sagan is yet to win a race over 250 km and even though he has come close a couple of times, it’s still one thing missing on his impressive palmares.

The Spanish duo Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez makes it hard to imagine a final podium without a Spanish rider. Valverde is a true specialist in these kind of one-day races and Purito too knows how prepare for a single day and then deliver. Both have been on the podium in the past but neither has ever won. This year both Valverde and Purito aimed at the Tour de France this summer. Afterwards they started out the Vuelta with the intention of getting ready for this Sunday. They finished 3^rd and 4^th overall in the Vuelta and seem very strong at the moment. Especially, Purito finished the Vuelta strong and I think he’s Spain’s best card to play. Few - if any - can match Purito’s kick on the steep gradients and I would imagine he would try to split the group on Via Salviati the last time. We saw in the U23 race that Via Salviati creates a lot more damage than Fiesole and the steep gradients really suits Purito who’s also good on the descent. Furthermore, Purito showed in Giro di Lombardia last year, that he can win in the rain as well. Of course, if it ends in a sprint of 10+ riders, Alejandro Valverde is the best option for Spain and if Peter Sagan isn’t in the group, Valverde shouldn’t have problems outsprinting the rest.

The last one of the top favorites is Vincenzo Nibali. He’s riding on home soil in Italy and naturally the expectations are high. Italy hasn’t be able to deliver since 2008 when the finished 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th in Varese. Now the World Championship is back in Italy and after Nibali won the Giro d’Italia and finished second overall in the Vuelta, everybody expect another top performance from the shark. To help Nibali take the rainbow jersey, Italy sends strong riders like Michele Scarponi, Rinaldo Nocentini, Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Diego Ulissi. Italy’s big problem in the past has been too many captains, this time it’s different. Pozzato and Scarponi are both in great shape but they have to leave their big egos at home. Ulissi is double junior world champion and I have no doubts he’ll win the elite’s race one day as well. Diego Ulissi is strong on the climbs and fast on the line. However, he’s not very good on the descents especially not if the roads are wet. Vincenzo Nibali needs to attack on Fiesole and make an early selection, then he probably has to dig deep again on Via Salviati and then attack on the descent as he has done in the past. Nibali knows his only chance is to solo away and I’m sure he won’t think twice if he sees an opening in the final.

As I wrote earlier, there actually is one rider fitting all the listed statement. This rider is Dan Martin. He started the Vuelta, he didn’t ride the last week of the race, he’s a climber, he’s explosive, he’s fast on the line and he has proven to be able to win on the long distance (LBL this year). After crashing out of the Vuelta, Dan Martin took part in Tour of Britain as his last preparation for the World Championship. He raced very aggressively and showed on the climbs that he is still going very strong. So far, 2013 has already been a great season for Dan Martin after winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege and stage 9 of the Tour de France. He has been targeting the Rainbow Jersey for a while and he has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking from afar if necessary. I think the most likely scenario for this race, is a small group of about five riders arriving at the finishing together. If Dan Martin is in this group, he will be very difficult to beat.

Earlier this year, Colombia seemed to have one of the most powerful teams for this race. However, both Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur didn’t really deliver in the Vuelta and it’s doubtful they will be able to perform - as previously expected - this Sunday. Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran are still two very strong outsiders but it won’t be easy for the Colombians to continue their dominance this season. Nairo Quintana’s father is hoping to visit the Pope when the race is over and naturally, it would be amazing for the humble climber to join his parents with the Pope carrying the Rainbow Jersey. I don’t think it will be happen though.

Map of the circuit in Florence.

Before this preview gets too long to read, let’s have a look at some of the jokers for the win. My personal joker is Rui Costa. Like Dan Martin, Rui Costa has already had a great season with the overall win in Tour de Suisse and two impressive stage wins in Tour de France. The World Championship has been a big goal for Rui Costa all season and the course really suits him. Portugal only has three riders in the race but both Andre Cardoso and Tiago Machado are dedicated to help Rui Costa win the Rainbow Jersey.

Another strong outsider is Chris Froome. Not since Greg Lemond in 1989 has a Tour de France winner went on to become World Champion. This year Froome has a unique chance of doing so but he knows he requires a hard race with a big selection. In the beginning of August, Chris Froome went to check out the course and train on the roads. He did the Via Salviati climb 10 times and he knows what to expect. After finishing the Tour, Froome immediately started talking about the World Championship and after training hard in North America the last weeks, he now seems ready. Like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome most likely has to solo away in order to win this race but don’t forget he actually outsprinted both Contador and Purito in Tour of Oman earlier this year.

For other jokers look to in-shape Robert Gesink and Thomas Voeckler, one-day specialist Alexandr Kolobnev and strong all-rounder Edvald Boasson Hagen. For the super-super jokers I’ll like to mention season revelation Tanel Kangert, World Champion specialist Matti Breschel and youngster Tom-Jelte Slagter who has a good kick on the hills and is fast on the line.

For live coverage of the race go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

Team Saxo-Tinkoff did it again. They took the peloton by surprise in the crosswind and managed to distance Domenico Pozzovivo by 1:30 min. Nicolas Roche is therefore now back in Top5 - his big goal - and it will be interesting to see what Pozzovivo can do to take back the time he lost.

Stage 18 provides the first opportunity to change the overall classification. The 186.5 km include no less than five categorized climbs and the last one, Peña Cabarga, is one of the toughest in this year’s Vuelta a España. The day starts in Burgos where the riders head north. A light headwind will accompany the peloton for most of the day and we can expect another hard day in the saddle.

The breakaway has a good chance of making it all the way again and it will be a furious fight to get into that final break. There are no real climbs the first 75 km it won’t be a surprise if the break doesn’t get away for good until they hit the first climb. Alto de Bocos is only 3 km long but its average gradient of 6.6 % will show who has the legs to be in front today.

The following three climbs come right after each other and the penultimate one, Alto del Caracol, has its top just 40 km from the finishing line. The run-in towards the final climb is up and down at all the time and nobody will arrive at the bottom of Peña Cabarga with fresh legs. There is an intermediate sprint in Solares with just 10 km to go and in case the break is caught, we may see the GC riders sprint for the three bonus seconds.

Peña Cabarga. 5.9 km / avg. 9.2 %

As the riders gets close to the final ascent, the roads turns 180° which means the peloton will start the last climb with a light tailwind. Peña Cabarga is 5.9 km long and has an average gradient of 9.2 %. There are even parts of over 20 % on the last kilometer. In 2011, Chris Froome took his first GrandTour stage win, when he outsprinted Juanjo Cobo on the final meters. Back then, Cobo attack with 1 km to go and at this point, they were still 10 riders left in front group. This time we may see attacks a bit earlier. Valverde and Purito can’t wait to the last kilometer and the TV-viewers can enjoy a great fight this Thursday afternoon. As Chris Horner says:  “Grab your beer and get ready for the show!”

Chris Horner still seems to be the strongest rider uphill in this race and it’s difficult to imagine why it would change now. Astana will be happy if a breakaway makes it and thereby takes the bonus seconds on the line. Vincenzo Nibali didn’t look too good the other day, however I’m sure the Italian is only getting better. It won’t be easy to drop him on the steep percentages. Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang will all be there to support Nibali in the final and probably Paolo Tiralongo as well. Chris Horner only has Robert Kiserlovski left to help but then again, the Croatian champion is probably among the best climbers in the race right now. Kiserlovski can’t afford to have a bad day though - in that case, Horner will be completely isolated.

It will be very interesting to see how Movistar will ride this stage. They haven’t won a single stage yet and they must be eager to finally cross the line first. Before the stage to Formigal, Alejandro Valverde seemed happy just to take 3^rd place overall but not anymore. Valverde now eyes the Red Jersey and he says he won’t be afraid of attacking from a far - and to risk losing everything - if he sees an opening. However, it’s important to remember that Valverde doesn’t know the Peña Cabarga ascent. He decided to rest after the Tour instead of going to check out the climb.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is probably on the same page in the tactic book as Valverde. He showed he is now strong enough to drop the other GC riders uphill and on the steep percentages on Peña Cabarga, Purito has to try again. I would imagine Dani Moreno to set a high pace in the beginning of the climb in order for Purito to attack when gradients get over 10 %. Purito already knows what it takes to win on Peña Cabarga. He won here in 2010 when he distanced Nibali with 20 seconds after a late attack with just 800 meters to go. 

Domenico Pozzovivo lost his 5^th place overall in the crosswind on stage 17 and he will be eager to take it back from Nicolas Roche. The steep climbs suits Pozzovivo perfectly and with only 53 kg to carry, he should be able to distance Roche in the final. He probably won’t take back all the time he lost in the wind but he will get closer.

As stated, the breakaway has a good chance of making it again. It would suit Astana perfectly if the bonus seconds weren’t up for grabs and Movistar and Katusha may be too focused on the battle for the GC to control the peloton. However, if Valverde and Purito wants a stage win from this year’s Vuelta this is an opportunity they can’t afford to miss. Anyway, in case a break makes it all the way, let’s take a look at some of the best candidates.

First up is Michele Scarponi. The Italian is very strong right now and has been good at hitting the right breaks. Scarponi can’t drop the best riders uphill anymore but he showed the other day, that he is in great shape. He finished second after Alexandre Geniez and was one of the few riders able to take back time on the Frenchman on the last climb. Why he let him get away in first place is a mystery. One thing talking against Scarponi is that he’s only 12:08 min after Vincenzo Nibali. At this point in the race, the team start to protect their Top10 places and they may not let Scarponi get too much of a gap.

Euskaltel are trying hard to get a stage win in their last Vuelta and I’m sure they will do whatever they can in order to put a strong climber in the early breakaway. Igor Antón and Mikel Nieve are not big threats in the GC and especially Antón seems to be doing pretty well right now. Another Spanish climber who’s getting better and better is David Arroyo. He came to race in great shape but crashed in one of the first stages. Slowly Arroyo is getting back at a high level and he’s now less than a minute from breaking into Top10 overall. The final climb suits Arroyo just fine but he won’t be able to drop the other GC riders. If he wants to give Caja Rural a stage win, he needs to attack from a far. Like Scarponi, it won’t be easy to get a big gap but you never know this late in the race.

For other good candidates look to riders like Amets Txurruka, Nicolas Edet, Georg Preidler, Ivan Santaromita, Diego Ulissi, Rafal Majka, Dario Cataldo and Yoann Bagot. Bagot is right now 22^nd in the overall classification but he needs four minutes to make into Top20. So far, the French riders have been very good in this Vuelta and I can’t see why Warren Barguil shouldn’t be able to make a hat-trick. He’s obviously in outstanding shape right now and despite his inexperience Barguil really knows how to hit the right breakaway!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 18, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

We didn’t see a real fight between the GC riders on stage 19 but it’s safe to say that will change now. With only 47 seconds between Contador (second) and Purito (fifth), we can expect quite a show on the final climb.

The Route

This is the shortest regular stage of this year’s Tour de France but with six categorized climbs on the menu, it will be anything but easy. The fight for podium will be furious and we will most likely see tactically attacks right from the beginning. Côte du Puget (5.4 km / avg. 5.9 %) and Col de Leschaux (3.6 km / avg. 6.1 %) are both located within the first 18 km of the stage and the heavy riders will have to dig very deep in order to finish this stage and see Paris tomorrow. The intermediate sprint is up after 33.5 km but it will be of little importance since Peter Sagan already seems sure to win the Green Jersey.

After two category 3 climbs the riders start on Mont Revard with 64 km to go. The 15.9 km towards the top of this category 1 climb have an average gradient of just 5.6 % but the climb is very steep in the beginning. There are still 46.5 km to go from the top of Mont Revard. The descent is not easy and the last climb of the day starts just 10 km after coming down from Mont Revard.

The final  HC climb of this year's Tour.

The Finish

The final climb up to Annecy-Semnoz is very steep and there is only one tiny part where you can catch your breath a little. The 10.7 km have an average gradient of 8.5 % and this is where the final podium will be settled. You can lose a lot of time if you have a bad day on this climb. There are not many steep hairpin corners but the gradients are steady of around 8 % and with parts of 10 % near the top. Remember, there are double up on the KOM points on the top of Annecy-Semnoz and that means 50 points to winner.

The Favorites

I think the GC riders will fight for the stage win today. Riders like Purito, Quintana, Valverde and Contador are yet to win a stage in this year’s Tour de France and even though the podium is more important, they don’t want to lose the chance by giving a break too much of gap early on. The final climb is very steep and that favors the tiny climbers like Purito and Quintana. Chris Froome will be happy just to keep his yellow jersey and I would be surprised to see him go for the stage win.

As it stands before the stage, Purito is one with most to win. He is fifth overall but only 47 seconds from Contador in second place. Purito has timed his condition perfectly and he knows the final climb well after training on it before the Tour. I think Purito and his teammate Dani Moreno will attack in the beginning of the last climb - on the steep parts - and try to make an early selection. Contador has not been great the last couple of days and if he’s not 100 %, it will show already.

Nairo Quintana has the White Jersey secured and he’s now gunning for second place overall and the KOM Jersey. If Quintana ends first or second on the stage, he seems sure to win the Polka Dot Jersey as well and honestly I would be very surprised should the Colombian  super climber not make top2 on this stage.

The way I see it, Purito and Quitana are the two favorites. I doubt Froome will go for the stage and I can’t see Contador beating Purito or Quintana as it is right now. Contador may be able to hold onto his podium place but it won’t be easy with the shape Purito is showing right now.

The Jokers

Since I find it highly unlikely that a breakaway makes it all the way for the third day in a row, I don’t really see any jokers for the stage win. This is between the big favorites and that’s the way it should be. However, should something happen and a break ends up getting too far away, look out for Wout Poels and Arnold Jeannesson. Both are out of the GC (29^th and 30^th overall) but they have been looking very good the last couple of days. At this point in the race, it’s all about who has something left in the legs. Jeannesson stayed with the favorites for quite a while on Friday’s stage but had to let go on the final kilometers of the last climb. Poels probably paid the price for his attack the other day and since none of them can go with favorites when they start to attack, I think both will try to hit the morning breakaway. It won’t be easy though. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff, Movistar and Katusha all will try something from the very beginning of the stage but should a break get away, I would be surprised not to see at least one my two jokers in it.

Favorites: Quintana & Purito

Jokers: Jeannesson & Poels

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 20:

Tour de France: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

Christophe Riblon did what he does best and took an impressive stage win after a long breakaway in the mountains. Stage 19 doesn’t finish uphill but it will be just as hard for the riders.

The Route

We are in the end of the third week and everybody is already on his limits. Add to that an extremely tough uphill time trial and double up on Alpe d’Huez the days before. These 204.5 km will feel like forever for the riders and it all starts out with two HC climbs. Bon appetite!

There are 21.6 km to the top of Col du Glandon and due to a couple of small descents, the average gradient is “only” 5.1 %. There are steep parts of 11 % in the middle and after a long part of 5 %, the climb kicks up with 8 % near the top. The first rider over the top gets 25 points for the KOM Jersey and with no less than 75 points up for grabs today, this is a very important day for the riders targeting that competition. Chris Froome leads the competition in front of Nairo Quintana and since they both will get points on Saturday’s uphill finish, riders like Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland really need to attack from a far if they want to win the jersey.

After the descent from Col du Glandon, there are just 10 km to the next HC climb starts. Col de Madeleine is feared by many and with its 19.2 km of 7.9 %,it’s not difficult to understand why. There are still 121 km to go from the top of Madeleine and we will most likely see a breakaway get a good gap at this point.

The Finish

The last 70 km include three climbs in a row. First up is Col de Tamié (8.6 km / avg. 6.2 %) and after that it’s time for the steep Col de l’Épine with an average of 7.3 % and parts over 10 % near the top. The riders stay on a plateau for about 10 km after reaching the top of Col de l’Épine and after a short descent, they face the final climb of the day. Col de la Croix Fry is 11.3 km and has an average gradient of 7 %. There are steep parts halfway through to the top and we should see the favorites attack each other on this climb.

From the top of Col de la Croix Fry there are just 13 km to go and with only a few tricky corners on the descent, we can expect a fast finish. As of Thursday evening, there are 50 % chance of rain during the stage and that could spice up things a bit. The Tour had a similar stage finish in 2004 when Lance Armstrong tried to get teammate Floyd Landis to win. Landis didn’t manage to get away on the descent and in the end Armstrong outsprinted Andreas Klöden to take the stage win.

The final 70 km of Stage 19 - Click for larger view.

The Favorites

As hoped for in my Preview for stage 18, Saxo-Tinkoff tried to make a masterpiece. They failed however and now they have to focus on keeping their podium spot instead of trying to win the Tour. It’s not like Alberto Contador not to aim for the overall win and even though he may not care if he ends 2^nd or 10^th, I bet his team does. I personally doubt Saxo-Tinkoff will try to open up the race from afar on this stage but with Contador you never know.

I didn’t mention Purito among my favorites for Alpe d’Huez since I was waiting to play him as my favorite for this stage. Purito had two big goals for this first part of the season; Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Tour de France. He managed to time his condition perfectly for LBL but in a sprint against Dan Martin he couldn’t do better than second place. Ever since April all focus has been on the Tour and trying to peak in the third week. So far, everything has gone according to the plan and Purito is now just 26 seconds from the podium. In his preparation for the Tour, Purito has been training on this stage and tomorrow’s stage and he knows exactly what to expect. He best chance of making podium is to drop Contador and Kreuziger - I doubt he can handle Quintana - and to do that he needs to put in a couple of strong attacks on Col de la Croix Fry. 

Teammate Dani Moreno is also peaking right now and I expect a big show from Katusha in the last days in the Alps. Purito’s biggest rival for the stage win is Alejandro Valverde but according to Valverde, Movistar are now all-in for Nairo Quintana and his podium place. In case Alberto Contador has another bad day, I think it will only be Purito, Froome and Quintana in front (among the favorites) over the top of Col de la Croix Fry and if they can make it to the finishing line, Purito should be able to outsprint Quintana. Froome will happy just to keep the yellow jersey.

The Jokers

I mentioned in the beginning that this is an important stage for the riders still hoping to win the KOM Jersey. Mikel Nieve is fourth in that competition right now, 41 points behind Chris Froome, but if Nieve is first man over the two first climbs, he will take the jersey - for now. The strong Basque climber is 15^th overall, 24:13 minutes down, and he’s not a threat for the Top10 riders should he get into the morning breakaway. Euskaltel are in desperate need of a new sponsor and it would help quite a lot if Mikel Nieve could win the Polka Dot Jersey.

Europcar tried to attack on stage 18 with Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland but it all came too late as the breakaway already had a big gap. I think both Voeckler and Rolland will be eager to get into the morning breakaway and with a downhill finish, the stage looks very good for especially Voeckler.

My last joker is Alessandro De Marchi. His teammate Moreno Moser came close on Alpe d’Huez and his third place must have boosted the moral for the coming days. De Marchi himself has tried hard the last couple of days in the mountains and he did very well on stage 18 despite not getting into the morning breakaway. He finished 19^th on Alpe d’Huez and he showed in Dauphiné that he has what it takes to go all the way. Two years ago, the Italian’s former team boss, Gianni Savio, told me that De Marchi is strong but “not a winner”. Things have changed since then and should Alessandro De Marchi manage get into the morning breakaway, I think he will be very difficult to beat - should they make it to the line.

Favorite: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Jokers: Thomas Voeckler & Alessandro De Marchi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 19:

Tour de France: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

Chris Froome managed to win the time trial on day where he only focused on not taking too big risks. Impressived. Alberto Contador went All-In and finished second and I think Saxo-Tinkoff have something big planned for this stage.

The Route

This is the Queen Stage of this year’s Tour de France. Finishing on Alpe d’Huez this late in the Tour is already a tall order for many riders - climbing it twice within 60 km, that’s just brutal. The day starts where stage 16 ended, in Gap, climbing Col de Manse (6.6 km / avg. 6.2 %). 30 km later, it’s time for Rampe du Motty. This category 3 climb is only 2.4 km long but as the name suggests, it’s very steep with an average of 8 %. The stage is only 172.5 km long and these two climbs in the beginning will already tire out many riders before the main course gets served.

With about 90 km to go the riders start the ascent of Col d’Ornon. The 5.1 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.7 % and it will be important for the GC riders to stay in front over the top. Alpe d’Huez starts quickly after the descent from Col d’Ornon and it’s vital to start the climb in a good position.

The Finish

The first ascent of Alpe d’Huez starts with 61 km to go. When reaching the top, the riders stay on a plateau for about 5 km before starting on Col de Sarenne. The descent from here is very difficult and if the weather forecast stands, and it’s raining, this could end up in a real bloodbath. There are rumors circling that the stage will be shortened but as of Wednesday evening, there are no official statement.

From the top of Col de Sarenne, there are 27 km to the beginning of the final ascent of Alpe d’Huez. The 13.8 km up through the hairpins have a frightening average gradient of 8.1 % and it starts out very steep. The first two kilometers have an average of over 10 % and it doesn’t really get easier before the final couple of kilometers (5 %).

The final 61 km and the last three climbs of Stage 18. Click for larger view!

Favorites - Jokers - Scenarios

Any climber with respect for himself wants to win on Alpe d’Huez. Ask anyone who’s not regularly following Tour de France to name a random climb in the race and he or she will most likely be able to mention this one.

Personally, I doubt a morning breakaway will make it all the way this time but do I think the composition of the breakaway will be vital. If I were Bjarne Riis, I would try to put a couple of strong riders in the break. Riders like Nicolas Roche, Jesus Hernandez and Daniele Bennati. Then I would tell Saxo-Tinkoff to go hard in the beginning of Alpe d’Huez and attack with Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger. Richie Porte won’t be able to close all the gaps and if they can isolate Froome before the top of Col de Sarenne, they can put him under pressure on the difficult descent. If riders like Nicolas Roche and Daniele Bennati are in the break, they can now wait for Contador and set a high pace on the descent towards the final climb. This won’t be an easy tactic to pull off but we know that Alberto Contador never rides for second place. This will also favor Movistar. In Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde they have two strong riders both uphill and downhill and they should be able to work together with Saxo-Tinkoff despite what happened the other day.

When the Tour de France finished on Alpe d’Huez in 2011, Alberto Contador attacked right from the beginning of the stage. He was out of the GC and wanted something to bring home. For a long time it seemed like he would win the stage but on the last kilometer, Pierre Rolland bridged the gap and won the stage. It’s safe to say Contador has some unfinished business with this climb. He did however win on Alpe d’Huez in Dauphiné but everybody who remembers that stage, also knows Janez Brajkovic almost gave him that one. Contador is a winner and he wants to win on Alpe d’Huez in the Tour de France where all the big champions have won in the past. It won’t be easy against Chris Froome but if they can isolate him early, Contador may have a chance.

Should Saxo-Tinkoff and Movistar not succeed in isolating Froome before the final climb, I think Nairo Quintana will have a good chance of winning. He’s been the best climber - after Froome - in the race so far and if he can keep up this time, Froome will probably let him take the win as he intended the other day. On Mont Ventoux, Froome said the stage win would have been Quintana’s if he had kept the pace and knowing that, Quintana may find the strength to go extra deep on Alpe d’Huez. After Wednesday’s time trial Froome stated that he no longer aims at stage wins but only to keep the yellow jersey.

Another rider who will be extra motivated today is Mikel Nieve. The Basque climber not only has a beautiful first name, he has also turned out to be one of the strongest riders uphill. Futhermroe, he’s now targeting the KOM Jersey. Froome leads that competition in front of Quintana but since they both have other jerseys to wear (yellow and white), Nieve is now in Polke Dots. In 2003, Iban Mayo won on Alpe d’Huez and it would mean the world to Euskaltel could Mikel Nieve repeat that performance here 10 years later. Nieve has already won big mountain stages in Vuelta España and Giro d’Italia and he’s eager to join the club of stage winners in all three Grand Tours. In 2001 Roberto Laiseka won on Luz Ardiden and 10 years later Samuel Sanchez did the same thing. Sanchez won the Polka Dot Jersey that day and what a story if would be if Mikel Nieve could do it too - 10 years after Iban Mayo’s win on Alpe d’Huez.

Last but not least, look out for Daniel Martin. The Irishman had a bad day on Mont Ventoux but he’s been having his eyes on this stage for quite a while. Martin is fond of cycling history and he knows what it means to win on Alpe d’Huez. This year, we will see an Irish corner towards the top and I’m convinced Daniel Martin is very focused on giving his countrymen something to cheer for.

It’s hard to pick one favorite in this bunch. I hope Saxo-Tinkoff and Alberto Contador will put on a show but it won’t be easy. The best winner pick is therefore probably Nairo Quintana since Froome is no longer interested in the stage wins.

Favorite: Nairo Quintana

Jokers: Mikel Nieve & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 18:

Tour de France: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

After the second and last rest day of this year’s Tour de France, the race continues with tricky stage leading the peloton towards the Alps. It’s not often we have a climb famous for its descent and not its ascent but that is the case this Tuesday.

The Route

On paper, the 168 km from Vaison-la-Romaine to Gap look perfect for a breakaway. The category 3 climb, Côte de la Montagne, starts after just 12 km and serves as a perfect place for a breakaway to be established. The last week of this Tour de France is extremely hard and the GC riders will be happy to have a quiet day in the peloton before the next four tough stages.

This is a short stage and that means the pace will high right from the beginning. For many riders, this is the last chance to win a stage in the Tour de France 2013 and it will be a furious fight to get into the morning breakaway. In case we don’t already have a break after Côte de la Montagne, I think it will happen on Col de Macuègne. This category 2 climb starts after 40 km and the 7.6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.2 %.

The riders will be enjoying a light tailwind for most of the day and from the top of Col de Macuègne a breakaway should be able to get a big gap. The following 100 km are more or less flat and unless Cannondale and Argos-Shimano miss the break, I doubt the peloton will be eager to catch them.

The Finish

With 21 km to go, the riders face the last climb of the day; Col de Manse. This category 2 climb is 9.5 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The ascent is not steep very steep but the descent is very difficult. In 2003, Joseba Beloki crashed hard in a corner and his career basically ended just 4 km from the finishing line in Gap. Lance Armstrong continued straight out, over the field, to join the group in the next corner. You all know the story.

The last time the Tour de France used this descent was in 2011. Alberto Contador hasn’t shown much of himself so far in the race but he came to life on Col de Manse with a series of strong attacks towards the top. In the end, he managed to drop Andy Schleck and on the wet descent Contador, Evans and Sanchez opened up a gap of more than one minute to Schleck who clearly didn’t feel safe on the bike.

The final 2 km of Stage 16.

The last 2.5 km are flat and straight out towards the line. Still, there are two or three roundabouts to overcome before crossing the finishing line. ASO have even put the 1-km-to-go-port in one of the roundabouts. As of Monday afternoon, the weather forecast shows rain in Gap at the time the riders are expected to finish and that means will get another dangerous finish to watch this year. Let's hope all riders stay upright.

The Favorites

I think a breakaway will make it but it all depends on Cannondale. They decided not to chase the other day when Matteo Trentin won the stage. The many climbs made it difficult for Cannondale to control the race but if they don’t have a rider in the break this time, I think they will try to bring it back for Peter Sagan. The final climb is not hard enough to drop Peter Sagan and the wet the descent won’t be a problem either. Nobody handle their bike like Peter Sagan and he can - by himself -  close a gap of 20-30 seconds on that final descent should it come to that.

Argos-Shimano is another interesting team for this stage. The climbs should not be too tough for John Degenkolb and if they don’t manage to put a rider in the break, I think they will set up a chase with Cannondale on the long flat part.

Should a breakaway make it all the way, Philippe Gilbert is my pick. So far BMC have been focused on Cadel Evans in the GC but after Sunday’s stage to Mont Ventoux, that race is now over. Gilbert has been complaining about not getting an opportunity to attack but now he has the chance. Gilbert is yet to win wearing the World Champion Jersey but he’s been very active the last couple of days. On Mont Ventoux he showed great climbing legs when he finished 29^th together with Cadel Evans and if Gilbert was to win a stage in this year’s Tour de France, this is the one. Philippe Gilbert also has a chance should a breakaway get caught. He won similar stage in last year’s Vuelta España when he attacked on Montjuic with Purito.

Wednesday’s uphill time trial is very - very - hard and I think the GC riders will save as much energy as possible. That being said, should Chris Froome show any weakness on the wet descent, naturally Alberto Contador and the Belkin boys have to take advantage. Remember, Froome lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall this year on a rainy up-and-down stage (won by Peter Sagan).

The Jokers

Like the other day, there are tons of good breakaway candidates. Riders like Alessandro De Marchi, Romain Bardet, Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler, Juan-Antonio Flecha and Damiano Cunego all lookspromising. I had Jan Bakelants down as my favorite for Stage 14 and he almost pulled it off. He’s been in great shape lately, I won’t be surprised to see him in front again on this stage. The same goes for Michael Albasini. He was the strongest rider the other day but burned up too much energy in the final. I’m sure he’s eager to take revenge and if he hit the right breakaway again, he will be difficult to beat. Adam Hansen is another interesting rider for this stage. He won a similar stage in the Giro d’Italia earlier this year - in the rain - and if he has the same strong legs this Tuesday, he could be a good pick for the stage win.

The wild card team, Sojasun, almost pulled off an amazing stage win with Julien Simon. The French puncheur was caught on the last kilometer and this stage is probably their last chance to make up for that. Julien Simon is ready to give it another go and so is Alexis Vuillermoz who’s knows these climbs very well. Should this stage end with a sprint in a reduced peloton, look out for riders like Michal Kwiatkowski, Tony Gallopin and Ramunas Navardauskas. 

Favorites: Peter Sagan & Philippe Gilbert

Jokers: Michael Albasini / Jan Bakelants / Michal Kwiatkowski

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 16:

Tour de France: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

 As expected, a breakaway made it on Stage 14 and now the focus is back on the GC riders. This last week of this year’s Tour de France will be extremely tough and it starts out with a killer mountain stage finishing on the legendary Mont Ventoux.

The Route

In the past, the stages on the French National Day were made for the breakaways. This year it’s different. Stage 15 is the longest stage of this year’s Tour and despite finishing on Mont Ventoux, the first 221 km are more of less flat. This means it’s highly unlike a break will make it all way. It will be another hot day in the saddle with temperatures over 30°c and after two hard stages, many will hope for a quiet start of the day.

A tailwind will help a morning breakaway get a good gap but the peloton will make sure it won’t get out of control. The intermediate sprint is located in Malaucène 15 km from the bottom of Mont Ventoux. Since the stage hasn’t been very hard until now, most of the sprinters should be able to fight for points for the Green Jersey.

The Finish

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux.

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux have an average gradient of 7.5 %. The climb starts out quite soft with the first five kilometers not getting over 4-5 %. From here on the road really kicks up with percentages over 10 %. It’s always very windy after getting out of the forest into the moon landscape and this year is no different. The riders will be fighting a headwind and this will make it very difficult to attack and stay away alone. The last right hand turn towards the finishing line is the final struggle of the day and with more than 10 % you need to have something left in the tank if you’re not already alone in front.

The Favorites

The last time the Tour de France had a stage finish on Mont Ventoux, Juanma Garate won in front of Tony Martin after a long breakaway. Starting on Mont Ventpux, the break seemed doomed but since Andy Schleck didn’t want to attack without his brother, Fränk, the GC riders killed the stage and let Garate and Martin stay in front. I don’t think that will happen this year.

Chris Froome already has a good gap to his rivals and they need to take use of every opportunity they get. Froome’s rivals simply have to attack and gain time and everybody wants to win on this mythical climb. Chris Froome himself had his first - ever - rendezvous with Mont Ventoux just two months ago when he went to test his legs on the climb. Riders like Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck already know what to expect of Mont Ventoux and I think they will have a little advantage on Froome. However, it doesn’t help much if they can’t drop him uphill - and I don’t think they can.

The way I see it, Chris Froome is the big favorite for the stage win. He lost a minute to Contador and Mollema in the crosswind and I’m sure he will be eager to take back the lost time time and show who’s the strongest rider in the race. Team Sky are missing Vasil ‘Chloroform’ Kiryienka and Edvald Boasson Hagen but they still have David Lopez, Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte to set the pace and keep Chris Froome in front. It’s not ideal but it has to do. If not Froome, I think the stage winner will be Spanish.

Movistar will most likely make the race hard but they only have Nairo Quintana for the overall classification. The Colombian super climber will probably put in a couple of strong attacks but I think Froome will respond. He knows can’t let Quintana get away. On the other hand, if Alejandro Vavlerde tries an attack I doubt Froome will chase him down instantly. Valverde has good memories from Mont Ventoux. In 2009, he took the yellow jersey in Critérium Dauphiné (which he later won overall) on the stage to Mont Ventoux. Back then, he ‘gave’ the stage win to Sylvester Szmyd but this time Valverde isn’t giving anything away. Tour de France was his big goal this season and he lost it all when a rider broke his wheel on Stage 13. Movistar are out for revenge and with a fast finish - should it come to that - I think Valverde will be tough to beat if Froome is just focusing on keeping the jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with Froome and Valverde in front.

Also, look out for Andy Schleck. He’s getting stronger and stronger every day and he may have some unfinished business with Mont Ventoux from the last time he was here. The headwind won’t favor Andy Schleck but on a good day he could take another big stage win in the Tour.

The Jokers

The French riders will be eager to get something out of this Tour de France, especially on La Fête Nationale (Bastille Day). When the route was revealed Thibaut Pinot was my first pick for the stage win but now I’m not so sure. He seemed to arrive to the Tour in great shape but he had nothing in his legs in the Pyrenees. Lately he’s been getting better but apparently he has some kind of throat problems now. If he’s back at his 2012 level, he will be a dangerous outsider but I doubt it. Pierre Rolland is another strong French candidate and contrary to Pinot, Rolland seems to have great legs. A stage win on Mont Ventoux will help Pierre Rolland significantly in his fight to keep the Polka Dot Jersey and the other GC riders don’t have to worry about him. Rolland is 25:33 minutes behind Froome in the overall classification and he only focuses on stage wins and the KOM competition.

I have high hopes for Daniel Martin too. The strong Irishman has already won a big mountain stage in this year’s Tour de France and he’s been “saving bullets” for Mont Ventoux the last couple of days. Martin is 11^th overall so he won’t be giving a card blanche. Still, he won’t be the first rider Froome, Contador and Mollema will start chasing down either. Daniel Martin says he’s a big fan of the cycling history and naturally winning on a famous climb like Mont Ventoux would be amazing. He seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he has a strong kick too. I don’t know if Daniel Martin still fits the “joker” category but if so, he’s my joker for the stage win.

So. To sum it up: Chris Froome is the strongest rider uphill but may not have the best team. Furthermore, his primary target is to keep the yellow jersey. Alejandro Valverde is eager to take revenge and his Movistar team is very strong. Valverde is now out of the GC and the other favorites won’t chase him down right away. Not even Belkin…

Favorites: Chris Froome & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Pierre Rolland & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 15:

Just to get you into the right mood, take a look at the Mont Ventoux stage from 2000 when Marco Pantani won after an amazing comeback and series of furious attacks in the end:

Tour de France: Stage 11 ITT Preview & Favorites

After a rest day and a stage for the sprinters, it’s now time to shake up the general classification again. The specialists have been trying to arrive as fresh as possible for this time trial while the GC riders will be more tired after the Pyrenees and that should show against the clock.

The Route

Starting out in Avranches the riders head south towards the first time check in Ducey after 9.5 km. It’s not really flat but it’s not very difficult either with many descents. This first part takes place with a strong tail wind and sets for a very fast start. After the checkpoint, the route turns west and this is where the road starts to kick up a little. Not much, but enough to require a change or rhythm.

Towards the second time check, we can expect a strong crosswind and without any kind of shelter from the wind, the pure climbers and other riders not strong against the clock, will be in big troubles.

The Finish

From the checkpoint in Courtils, there are 11 km to the finishing line. With 3 km to go the riders turn right - into the head wind - and continue straight out towards Mont-Saint-Michel. There is a 180° turn with about 500 meters to go before crossing the finishing line. The riders won’t enjoy this stage but for the TV-viewers if will be yet another spectacular day in the Tour.

The Favorites

Another spectacular place for a Tour de France stage to finish.

Without Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins in the race, there is really only one rider fitting the “Favorite” category. Tony Martin had a horrible crash on the first stage of the Tour but it doesn’t seem to trouble him too much anymore. At least not his performances on the bike. He did great in the team time trial with big pulls in the end (and that was only 3 days after his crash) and he seems very confident heading into this time trial. 

According to Tony Martin himself “anything but a stage win will be a huge disappointment”, so there you have it, Tony is the favorite.

Chris Froome will be interesting to follow as well. Before the Olympic Time Trial last year, he told me the flat route didn’t really suit him, but he still ended up taking the Bronze medal. Froome and Team Sky have had a couple of very tough stages in the Pyrenees and I doubt Froome will be able to challenge Tony Martin. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Froome makes Top3 again.

The Jokers

My outsider for this stage is the oldest Tour de France debutant in recent history of the race. Svein Tuft is a real powerhouse and like Tony Martin, he was the reason why his team did so well on Stage 4. GreenEdge won with less than second and that’s most likely thanks to this strong Canadian. Tuft has been saving energy - as much as you can in your debut Tour hitting the Pyrenees - the last days and he’s now hoping for another big result. Svein Tuft started out the season in a fantastic way when he won the time trial in Tour San Luis. Before Tour de France started, Tuft won the opening prologue in Tour de Slovenia and after the team time trial success, I think Tuft will do great today.

Another great candidate for a good result is Sylvain Chavanel. The French Champion will be eager to show off his jersey in the time trial and this is a perfect distance for Chavanel. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski could very well end up in the top end of the table and I wouldn’t be surprised if Omega Pharma Quickstep put at least three riders in Top10.

Click here for the starting order. First rider is Astana's Dmitriy Muravyev who starts at 10:28 CET. My joker Svein Tuft starts as number two at 10:30 and his time should be be a reference time for the rest of the riders. Tony Martin starts at 12:36 while Chris Froome is last rider on the ramp starting at 16:54.

Favorite: Tony Martin

Joker: Svein Tuft

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 11: