Vuelta a España: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

As expected, a break made it all the way on stage 15. Alexandre Geniez made sure the French spectators could celebrate the Vuelta visiting when he soloed away with 25 km to go. No changes in the overall classification as the first five riders stayed together all the time. Only Purito seemed to have energy to keep on trying to attack.

Monday’s stage is another hard day in the Pyrenees but not nearly as hard the last two days. The stage is only 146 km long and this time and it seems like the rain is now gone and the sun is back. Everybody is tired and it won’t be a surprise if an early breakaway manages to stay away again.

The first 20 km takes place in tailwind and this means we are in for another very fast start. Most likely, we will see a break getting away on Puerto de la Foradada. It’s only a category 3 climb but the 5.9 km towards the top still have an average gradient of 5.9 %. There are a lot of tired legs in the peloton after the last two days and it will be interesting who has something left in the tank.From the top of Puerto de la Foradada, the riders will have 60 km to cover in a light crosswind before the they start on the next climb. Puerto de Cotéfablo is 12.5 km long and has an average gradient of 4 %. It’s not a very steep climb but after the last two days, it won’t be a walk in the park either.

At this point on the stage, the wind has now changed and what started out as a tailwind is now a headwind. This means the final 30 km will be extremely hard for a breakaway and it's important to have saved something for the final climb. The ascent up to Aramón Formigal is 15.8 km long and has an average gradient of only 4 %. However, most of the first 6 km are either flat or downhill. The road start to kick up with 10 km to go and the following 3.5 km are steep with parts of nearly 10 %. The climbs then evens out for about 4 km before it gets steep again. The final 3.5 km have an average gradient of 7 % and this is where you can make the difference.

Aramón Formigal. 15.8 km / avg. 4 %. Last 3 km avg. 7 %.

In my preview for stage 15 I mentioned riders like Vasil Kiryienka, Mikel Landa and Diego Ulissi as good breakaway candidates. Landa made it into the break but didn’t have the strength to stay with Geniez. Kiryienka and Ulissi stayed in the peloton and once again, I’d like to point to those two as candidates for a break. I will add to that list riders like Egoi Martinez, Bauke Mollema, Marcos Garcia, Georg Preidler and Chris Anker Sørensen.

The last two names for the (long) list of good candidates are Amets Txurruka and Rigoberto Uran. Txurruka was very active in the beginning of stage 15 and he started several breakaways. However, Txurruka couldn’t cover every move and in the end the big break went away without him (but with two other Caja Rural riders). Rigoberto Uran too was very active on stage 15. He stayed with the favorites for most of the time and he even tried to get away a couple of times. Uran is obviously feeling better and being nearly 25 minutes after Vincenzo Nibali, he won’t be the first rider the peloton start chasing down.

Among the favorites, there are no doubts that Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner are the two strongest riders uphill right now. Actually, it’s probably Horner’s teammate Robert Kiserlovski who’s best climber at the moment. The Croatian champion is a very important help for Horner these days! The last two days have been tough on the riders and once again, it will be interesting to see how 41 years old Chris Horner will recover. Naturally, he can’t recover as fast as the younger riders but so far he doesn’t seem to have any problems at all.

Alejandro Valverde and especially Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez tried to attack on stage 15 but Nibali and Horner never let them get more than a few meters. The final climb is not very steep this time and it will be very difficult for the two Spaniards to get away. Valverde seems to be satisfied with third place overall and he’s probably paying more attention to Purito in 4^th place than to Horner in 2^nd place. Valverde knows he can outsprint Purito in the end Purito knows it too. The final three kilometers on Formigal are the steepest and I expect Purito to put in a couple of strong attacks in the hairpin corners trying to drop Valverde. It won’t be easy but it seems like Purito is very eager to make up for the lost time.

The final 3 km of stage 16. Avg. of 7 %.

Domenico Pozzovivo is only six seconds in front of Nicolas Roche in 5^th place but I don’t think he will have problems keeping the Irishman behind him. Pozzovivo has been very focused on not wasting any energy too early in the race. The Italian climber came to the race aiming for Top5 overall and he’s been saving energy for the last week. Roche has already put in numerous attacks and hadn’t he had a one minute gap to the favorites on the last climb on stage 15, he probably would have lost time again.

Samuel Sanchez is right now the best Euskaltel rider in the mountains and he too seems to be getting better and better every day. Sanchez can’t follow the top favorites when it gets steep but he’s clever and knows how to keep a good pace. The final climb on stage 16 has a couple of flat parts and I won’t surprise me to see Sanchez attack on the flat parts to get a good gap before the road kicks up again. He may even be able to win this stage like that if the peloton keeps the breakaway within striking distance.

The Vuelta pays homage to Fernando Escartín with this stage. The former Kelme captain never managed to win Vuelta a España but he was among the best climbers the country has ever produced.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 16, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Amets Txurruka to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

This is the first of two individual time trials in this year’s Giro d’Italia and it’s the day Bradley Wiggins has to make his mark on the race. These 54.8 km against the clock will change the general classification completely and the tiny climbers will end up losing many minutes on this stage. Most of the riders in this race have probably never done such a long time trial in a Grand Tour and it’ difficult to predict how their legs - and mind - will react to this brutal test.

The time trial is hard right from the beginning and if the distance wasn’t a tough enough enemy already, the last 3 km will be. After more than 50 km on the TT bike, the riders face the final uphill part towards the line. It starts out gently with 3.6% but the last kilometer kicks up with 13%. After such a long stage, and Stage 7 still in the legs, many riders will hit the wall and cross the line as if it was the top of Zoncolan.

Talking about favorites, there is really only one. Bradley Wiggins should be in a league of his own for this stage but it all depends on his condition after the crash on Stage 7. Wiggins tried out the course a couple of weeks before the Giro started and said he found it extremely hard. I have no doubts Bradley Wiggins will win this stage if he’s ready, and now he must be even more motivated than before. He’s 1:32 min after Beñat Intxausti and 1:27 min after Nibali. Before Stage 7, I had Wiggins to beat both of these with about 2 minutes, so don’t be surprised if he ends up in Maglia Rosa after all.

Vincenzo Nibali isn’t known for being a time trial specialist but on a course like this one, he should be able to fight for the best positions. Nibali has been working hard on the TT bike the last couple of years and even though he can’t match Wiggins on the flat parts, he will be able to push hard in the uphill sections. He finished 9^th in the time trial in the Tour de France last year and he started out strong in Argentina with a 4^th place this year. I think Nibali will be satisfied if he doesn’t lose more than 2 minutes to Bradley Wiggins in this stage and if so, he should be able to do Top5. On a great day, he could make Top3.

Top3 is definitely also an option for Cadel Evans. I didn’t give the Australian many chances in the my overall preview since he’s aiming at the Tour this year. Still, he has been very strong in the first week and he could very well end making another good result in this time trial. It’s difficult to predict how Cadel Evans will do against the clock since he hasn’t really been going all out in the ITTs this year, but if he has a good day, he could make Top3 and maybe even take the jersey?

I’ve said many times that I expect big things from Beñat Intxausti in this Giro d’Italia and after taking the Pink Jersey he now has a chance to gain more time GC rivals like Scarponi, Gesink, Santambrogio, Kiserlovski etc.  Intxausti is a very good time trialist and he always gets better when the terrain is tough. He has never done such a long time trial before in his career and that does talk against him, but I still think he will surprise you and make a great result. It won’t be easy to keep the jersey but it’s definitely not impossible. May 23^rd marks the day of Xavier Tondo’s death and so close to the day, I’m sure Intxausti won’t feel alone on the bike despite the long distance. He dedicated the jersey to Tondo and his grandfather after Stage 7, and both will be with him in spirit on Stage 8.

Other riders to look out for in this stage are Fredrik Kessiakoff and Manuele Boaro. Kessiakoff knows what it takes to win a time trial in a Grand Tour and after starting out the Giro a bit sick, he now seems to be back in shape. Manuele Boaro is a very talented time trialist and he has shown great legs the last couple of weeks. He didn’t impress much in the time trial in Tour de Romandie but I’m sure he has been targeting this one for a while. Teammate Mads Christensen has also been very strong in his recent time trials and I think he could do Top10 in this one on a good day.

Dario Cataldo would have been another good pick for a Top3 place in this stage, but being sick since the TTT, Cataldo doesn’t seem ready for such a hard fight against the clock already. Naturally, Cataldo will be eager to show off his Italian Champion jersey but being only at 70% - his words - right now, I doubt he has what it takes. In theory, Rigoberto Uran could do very well, but with Team Sky backing Bradley Wiggins 100%, Uran and the rest of ‘gregarios’ could take it easy and save some energy for the mountains.

Last rider I would like to point out is Taylor Phinney. The young American seems like a good pick but like Cataldo, also Phinney has been sick recently. Of course, he will give it his all, but it won’t be easy to perform well in this time trial if you’re not 100%.

You'll find the starting order for the time trial here.

Favorite: Bradley Wiggins

Top3 pick: Vincenzo Nibali

Jokers: Fredrik Kessiakoff / Manuele Boaro

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 8:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Volta Catalunya 2012

With just a few hours to the start of this year's Volta Catalunya here is a quick preview of the race.

Without a time trial in and with a lot of uphill sections Alejandro Valverde is of course the number one favorite. He has a great team around him with Moreno, Pardilla, Arroyo, Quintana etc. and it will take a real climber like Daniel Martin or Robert Gesink to beat him in the overall classification. Samuel Sanches is another rider with a good chance in the GC, same goes for Janez Brajkovic. Astana actually expect the Slovenian to fight for the overall win here.

I don't have much time to dig in any deeper about the favorites, so I figured I would give you my pre-top10 for the GC instead. Here you go:

1. Valverde
2. Gesink
3. Samu
4. Martin
5. Brajkovic
6. Andy
7. Cunego
8. Van den Broeck
9. Uran
10. Navarro

As always I would like to mention a few jokers for the GC. First up is the French youngster Thibout Pinot who climbs very well and aims high on this race. Pinot has a lot of strong riders around him and if he is ready he should be able to fight for a top10 spot, maybe even more. Second joker is Nairo Quintana. He won Vuelta a Murcia thanks to his performances in the mountains and even though he will have to help his team mate Alejandro Valverde, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting a good result for himself as well.

A few outsiders to win Lombardia

Let’s face it; there is one name and one name only when you talk about favorites for the hilly classics these years. Philippe Gilbert. Thing is that every rider in the peloton already knows that and it wouldn’t surprise me if we got an outsider on top of the podium in Lombardia to close a spectacular season.

Let’s take a look at a few outsiders who could ruin ‘the perfect’ season for Gilbert.

Rigoberto Uran, Team Sky.
Rigoberto Uran was very close to his big breakthrough in the Tour when he seemed sure to win the White Jersey before going under on the stage to Alpe d’huez. After that he regained his energy with a strong performance in San Sebastian before taking third place in GP de Quebec and latest another third place in Giro dell’Emilia. After Emilia he saved his energy for Lombardia where he will be the sole captain for a very strong Team Sky with Thomas Löfkvist showing great shape.

Uran is strong on the small steep climbs and very fast in a sprint, so don’t be surprised if he takes another top3 spot on Saturday - if not the win…

Pablo Lastras, Movistar.
It’s been a long and very successful season for Pablo Lastras and even though he had a long journey from the heavy smog in Beijing he should still be able to put down a good fight in Lombardia. It’s one of Lastras’ favorite races and last year he took third place after Gilbert & Scarponi showing great motivation for a good result despite the victory being out of reach for him. To help Lastras in the best possible way, Movistar sends strong riders like Rui Costa (who could be an outsider himself), Beñat Intxausti, Angel Madrazo, Ruben Plaza etc.

As said Pablo Lastras has had an amazing season so far and I think - and hope - that he can end it with style in Lombardia.

Daniel Moreno, Katusha.
I know. This is maybe too easy after he won in Piemonte last Thursday, but Dani Moreno is in fact a pretty good pick for an outsider to win Lombardia this year. Like Lastras, Moreno is finally back at this former level, probably even a lot better than ever before, and with Purito and Paolini the Katusha team really have a strong trio. Purito will probably be the leader, but like in Piemonte, Moreno can take advantage of this and try his own luck.

Most of you know that Dani Moreno is one of my favorite riders in the peloton, but no matter what, you all have to agree that if you can win in Piemonte two days before, you can definitely do great things in Lombardia as well!

Prezemyslav Niemiec, Lampre.
Damiano Cunego is without any doubts the leader at Lampre for Lombardia, having practically owned it earlier, but look out for this Polish guy as well. Niemiec is well known for his climber skills and after spending the whole season working his ass for his leaders, especially Michele Scarponi, this could be his big chance for a result for himself. Ending 5th in Emilia and 6th in Piemonte, Niemiec is certainly on the top of his game right now and if the long journey from Beijing shows to be too much for Cunego, he could end up surprising a lot of people with a strong ride in Lombardia!

If you are a gambler and you want to find the best winner bets for Lombardia, I suggest you read my article "Follow the money" at this site.

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 8

---

Thomas Löfkvist : Thomas Voeckler

Mauro Gianetti : Alberto Contador

David Etxebarria : Rigoberto Uran

Laura Meseguer : Alberto Contador

-----------

Bookmaker's favorite : Alberto Contador