Il Lombardia - Preview & Favorites

It’s time for the final big one day race of the 2013 season. The Italian Il Lombardia, also known as “the race of the falling leaves”, takes place on the routes from Bergamo to Lecco. There are no less than five hard climbs to overcome on the 242 km and the last one, Villa Vergano, has its top just 10 km from the finishing line.

One of the most spectacular parts of the routes comes after 160 km. On the way towards the top of Colma di Sormano, the riders reach the feared Muro di Sormano. The 1.9 km have an average gradient of 15.8 % and parts of up to 27 %. There are still 82 km to go from the top of the climb and most likely, the peloton will regroup on the following 30 km towards the next climb. Madonna del Ghisallo is 8.5 km long and has an average gradient of 6.2 %. It has a steep part of 14 % in the beginning and after a flat part, the final 1.5 km kick up with 9.5 %. Last year, the race took place in rainy conditions and many have feared the same would happen this time. However, as of Saturday morning, the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Lecco by the time the riders arrive.

Last year, on the descent from Madonna del Ghisallo we saw Vincenzo Nibali, among others, crash on the wet roads and hopefully everybody will stay upright this time. The crashes during World Championship last week took out many good riders and it would be a shame to see the same thing happening in Il Lombardia.

With 12.6 km to go, it’s time for the final struggle of the day. Villa Vergano is only 3.2 km long but has an average gradient of 7.4 %. There are steep parts of 15 % near the top and this is exactly where Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez attacked last year. Nobody could keep up with Purito and being strong on the wet descent, the other riders didn’t see him until after the finishing line. 

Should a small group of riders arrive together, it’s important to know the finish very well. With 750 meters to go, the riders turn right in a roundabout and continues straight out for about 500 meters. Then it’s time for a very tricky S-curve. It’s starts with a  90° left turn and ends with a right curve. There are only 150 meters to go from here and this means first rider out of the last bend most likely wins the rain. If you attack into the sharp left-hand corner and take a take a few risks, chances are you will open up a big enough gap to stay in front all the way to the line.

Like last year, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is once again my personal favorite. He has had a week to digest the big defeat in Florence and he’s now eager to take revenge and finish this season with a good taste in his mouth. Purito knows that few - if any - can match his kick on the steep part of Villa Vergano and I won’t be surprised to see him solo away to win like he did in 2012. In Florence, he showed to be the strongest climber in the race and Il Lombardia is really a climber’s race. Last year, Purito won the World Tour ranking after winning this race and he’s close enough to Chris Froome to repeat that performance this time. However, it won’t be easy. Froome leads with 80 points and that means Purito has to win or get second while Froome can’t get any points at all. Purito's loyal teammate Dani Moreno showed great shape in Milano-Torino with a strong attack in the final and we can expect Moreno to go hard for Purito in the beginning of Villa Vergano. Katusha has a very strong team for this race and should Purito get caught, Dani Moreno will be able to play his cards in the sprint.

Update: Chris Froome won't start Il Lombardia due to back pains. This means we may end up seeing Purito working harder to secure a Top2 place than to win the race if gets away with only one other rider in the final. Topping the ranking for the third time in a row is a huge goal for Purito and even though he naturally wants to win Il Lombardia, a second place won't be too bad this time. 

The other favorites for the win this Sunday are the same as those for the World Championship. Alejandro Valverde will be eager to make up for his tactical mistake (letting Rui Costa slip away) and it will be interesting to see how Valverde and Rui Costa, now teammates again, will ride this race. Valverde knows he’s most likely the fastest rider on the line should it end in a sprint. Therefore, I would expect Rui Costa to attack on the final climb. However, Rui Costa had problems keeping up with the best riders on the steep parts last Sunday and I doubt he can follow Purito on the final part of Villa Vergano. The best solution is probably to attack early on the last climb and make a selection before the steep part. Rui Costa may even wants to pay back Valverde by working in front of the peloton towards the line. Like some said, Purito should have done in Florence.

Vincenzo Nibali finished just outside of the podium last Sunday. I’m sure few would disagree to the fact that Nibali was the strongest rider in the race and I expect him to do very well in Il Lombardia too. Like Purito, Nibali is eager to take revenge. He’s in great shape right now but like other riders without a strong kick, the Astana captain has to time his final attack perfectly if he wants to win this race. Many people say that it will be an advantage for Nibali if it rains again this year. However don’t forget that Vincenzo Nibali has crashed numerous times on wet descents. Last year, in Il Lombardia, he went down on the descent from Madonna del Ghisallo and in the Giro d’Italia this year, Nibali crashed again on a wet descent. Same thing happened last Sunday, which obviously made Nibali scared of taking risks in the final when Rui Costa attacked. Nibali is said to be one of the best riders on the descents, especially if it rains, but maybe it’s time to reconsider that statement. That being said, I won’t be surprised to see Vincenzo Nibali attack on the descent from Villa Vergano. He knows he has to get away alone in order to win and I’m sure he will try.

Together with Purito and Rui Costa, Dan Martin was one of my personal picks for the win last Sunday. The Irish climber had all the qualities needed to win but like many others, a crash ruined his chances. Afterwards, Dan Martin said he was feeling very good on the bike during the race and luckily, the crash didn’t cause him any injuries. This means the Garmin captain is now ready to fight again and I have big hopes for him in this race. Dan Martin is good on the climbs, he’s explosive and he’s fast on the line. In Liege-Bastogne-Liege, he outsmarted Purito in the final and we may just get another fight between the same two riders this time.

Il Lombardia is the last race I’ll preview this season and of course I have a couple a couple of jokers for you. The first one is Domenico Pozzovivo. The pint-sized Italian finished 6^th overall in the Vuelta last month and after a short break, he showed still to be in great shape in Milano-Torino. On the final climb, Pozzovivo was - im my eyes - the strongest rider in the race, having no problems following the attacks the final 3 km. However, Pozzovivo is not very strong in a sprint and this also why his chances aren’t great this Sunday. I think Pozzovivo is one of the few riders able to stay close to Purito on the steep part of Villa Vergano but I can’t see him outsprint any of the other favorites. A podium place is probably the best Pozzovivo can do with a finish like this but that would also be a good result. Together with Carlos Betancur, Ag2r has a very strong duo for the final climb.

Some point to Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan as the favorites but I doubt they will be able to stay with the favorites on the final climb. It’s true that Gilbert has won this race before but let’s be honest, Gilbert is not as strong right now as we have seen him in the past. Also, unlike the last many years, the climbers are now in tip-top conditions thanks to a tough World Championship course. Usually, their season would already be over but now they are all peaking. I’m sure this will make a huge impact on the race. Personally, I will be surprised if a climber doesn’t win Il Lombardia.

Other good jokers for the win are Diego Ulissi, Thibaut Pinot and Alberto Contador. Ulissi is in great shape right now but as I’ve mentioned many times; he’s not good on the descents. Especially not if it rains. However, Ulissi is very fast on the line and he’s probably one of the very few riders in the peloton able to outsprint Alejandro Valverde. Thibaut Pinot hasn’t won a single race this season and naturally, he’s eager to change that fact. He came out of the Vuelta in good shape but like many others in this race, he probably needs to solo away in order to win. The same goes for Alberto Contador. I was a bit disappointed by Contador last Sunday but in Milano-Torino he showed to have found his climbing legs again. He wasn’t on top of his game but if he keeps on progressing like that, he should be among the first riders on Sunday. Team Saxo-Tinkoff also has in-shape Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka (2^nd in Milano-Torino) on the start line and they should be able to snatch up a good result. Also, look out for riders like Simon Clarke and Franco Pellizotti. Clarke did very well last Sunday while Pellizotti showed in Milano-Torino to be in great shape. 

For a super-super joker, look to Louis Meintjes. The young South African rider finished second in the U23 road race last week and showed on the Fiesole climb how strong he is right now. Alone he bridged the gap to Matej Mohoric and even though he couldn’t stay with the strong Slovenian rider on the descents, he managed to keep the peloton behind him all the way to the line. In Milano-Torino, Meintjes joined a couple of attacks on the final climb and he is now very eager to find out what he can do against the elite this Sunday. We can’t expect this young man to win Il Lombardia, but if Louis Meintjes can make Top15 it would be a huge result for him and his wildcard team MTN-Qhubeka.

For live coverage of Il Lombardia go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

Joaquim ’Purito’ Rodriguez finally took his first stage win of this year’s Vuelta on stage 19. Katusha worked in front of the peloton all day long and with one kilometer to go, Purito dropped the rest of the favorites. Vincenzo Nibali couldn’t keep up with Horner on the final meters and Chris Horner is now leading the race with three seconds.

Before the Vuelta started, we could only hope for a fight this close and Angliru will now determine who’s going to win this bike race. Chris Horner has been the best climber so far and usually the best climber wins on Angliru. In the past, the big favorites have won here and I doubt that will change this time. The bonus seconds on the line can prove to be very important and the prestige alone of winning on Angliru should mean we won’t see the peloton let the early break get too far away.

It’s a short stage of only 142.2 km but it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. Even though the chances of a breakaway making it aren’t great, half the peloton will try to make it into that break anyway. It’s the last chance before Madrid to win a stage and strong teams like Movistar, Lampre and Euskaltel are still winless in this Vuelta. Except for the opening team time trial Astana hasn’t won anything either yet and without having to control the race, we may see them send a good climber up the road. If not to win the stage, then at least to help Nibali on the final climb.              

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before taking on Alto de l’Angliru and all three of them are very steep. The first one, Alto de la Cabruñana, is the easiest one. It comes after 40 km and has an average gradient of 6.6 %. From the top, there are only 30 km to Alto de Tenebredo starts. This climb is only 3.4 km long but it has an average gradient of over 10 %! The GC favorites won’t be dropped here but the steep gradients will hurt their legs before the final two climbs of the day.

Alto de l'Angliru. 12.2 km / avg. 10.2 %

With 26.6 km to go, it’s time to climb Alto del Cordal. This is a category 1 climb and the 5.3 km towards the top has an average gradient of 9.6 %. If Alejandro Valverde or Joaquim Purito are feeling exceptional well, we may see Movistar and Katusha set a high pace on Cordal in order to tire out their rivals. There won’t be many riders left in the peloton when reaching the top and those who are dropped won’t see the front of the peloton again today. After the fast decent, the riders start on Angliru right away. This climb is said to be the hardest one ever done in a bike race and its 12.2 km with an average of 10.2 % confirm that.

This is only the 6^th time a stage finishes on Angliru and looking at some of the past winners, it’s clear this is one for the pure climbers. Jimenez, Simoni, Heras and Contador were all best in the world when they won here. Juanjo Cobo was the last winner on Angliru (in 2011). That year the Vuelta also had a stage finish on Peña Cabarga. Last Thursday Chris Horner sat a new record on the climb. He was more than 40 seconds faster than Cobo was in 2011.

Naturally, Chris Horner is the big favorite to win this stage. However, Vincenzo Nibali has a point when he says the climb suits the Italian better than Horner. Angliru is all about keeping a steady rhythm, sitting on the bike. Horner is always standing in the pedals and should it rain, it won’t be easy for him to distance the others. It’s true that Horner is better than the rest on the steep gradients right now but Angliru is constantly steep and therefore it’s more important to keep a steady rhythm. Also, Horner has never climbed Angliru before. Nibali has.

Like in the Tour, Purito seems to be very strong after the last rest day. However, after his win on Alto de Naranco he also said that “this was his last chance”. He knows it will be extremely difficult to win on Angliru and he’s probably more focused on gaining time on Valverde than going for the stage win. However, this climb suits Alejandro Valverde very well. The Movistar leader knows how to keep a high speed and honestly, I don’t think Purito will be able to distance Valverde enough to make podium. Actually, I doubt he will distance Valverde at all. The only chance for Purito to take 3^rd place is if Nibali has a - very - bad day. In 2011, Liquigas sat a strong pace for Vincenzo Nibali in the bottom of Angliru but halfway to the top, Nibali couldn’t follow anymore and he ended up losing 2:37 min to Juanjo Cobo. I doubt it will happen again this time but if Radioshack, Movistar and Katusha work together and put pressure on Nibali already on Cordal, he may crack again on Angliru.

As mentioned, Movistar, Lampre and Euskaltel haven’t won a single stage in this year’s race and they will all be eager to change that fact today. Eros Capecchi and José Herrada are probably the two best cards Movistar can play in a breakaway. Capecchi was very good on Angliru in 2011 and it’s important to know this climb. I had Diego Ulissi down as my joker for stage 19 and he finished 2^nd after Purito. Ulissi seems to have timed his shape perfectly for the World Championships and if he gets into the break, he will be very difficult to beat.

A steep climb like Angliru is always good for the pure climbers and Euskaltel has a lot of them. Mikel Nieve and Igor Antón are both out of the GC and will have freedom to attack. In 2011, Antón put in a strong attack with 7 km to go and for a time, he seemed to be the winner. However, he couldn’t follow when Cobo made his move. Back then, Antón attacked from the peloton. He ended up losing 1:21 min but imagine what he can do with a gap of 3 minutes in the bottom of the climb. Igor Antón has won on Monte Zoncolan in the past (2011) - the Italian pendant to Angliru - and he’s always been best on the steepest gradients.

It would be a smart move by Astana to send a rider or two in the early breakaway. They don’t have to control the race anymore and they would be happy to see the bonus seconds taken out of the equation if Nibali can't follow Horner. Tanel Kangert and Paolo Tiralongo will most likely stay with Nibali. Kangert sits 11^th overall and Tiralongo never leaves Nibali’s side. Not even when the doctors advised him to do so when he was sick during the Giro. I think Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang may fancy their chances. Brajkovic was the first rider in the Red Jersey and he’s been looking strong, working for Nibali, ever since. Before the Vuelta started, Fuglsang said he came to support Nibali and prepare for the World Championships. So far, he’s been riding very well without going over his limits. In the beginning, Fuglsang was aiming for a stage win but he became locked after Nibali took the jersey early in the race. Now he has a chance, his last chance, and it would be a shame to waste it. At least to get a strong day of racing before Florence.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this final day in the mountains, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

I’ve pumping up Vasil Kiryienka’s chances of making it all the way from a breakaway the last couple of days and Thursday afternoon, he finally did. Kiryienka went solo with 45 km to go and managed to keep everybody behind him. Chris Horner showed he is still the strongest uphill when he climbed Peña Cabarga about 40 seconds faster than Juanjo Cobo did in 2011. Cobo won the Vuelta that year and right now, it seems like Horner will win this year’s edition.

Stage 19 is another one for a breakaway. The GC riders are focusing on Angliru and I doubt they want to use up their teams already. That being said, if Valverde or Purito wants to win a stage in this year’s Vuelta, this is probably their last chance. Astana and Vincenzo Nibali will be happy to see a breakaway take all the bonus seconds again this time. Nibali can’t follow Chris Horner on the steep gradients and even though the final climb isn’t very steep this time, I can’t see Nibali gain time on Horner in Oviedo.

The first 100 km of stage 19 take place next to the sea. The wind is coming from north-northeast and if it’s strong again, we might see a team like Saxo-Tinkoff trying to split up the peloton again. However, they are still about 80 km to go - and six climbs - so I doubt it will happen. However, DS Fabrizio Guidi says the team is looking to climb the GC and that means taking time on Purito and Valverde.

Usually the big favorites want to go for the stage win on the mythical Angliru climb and that means this is the last day for a breakaway to make it. Therefore, we can expect another very fast with half of peloton trying to get away. For once Movistar missed the breakaway on stage 18 and I’m sure they will be eager to get at least one rider up front this time. It’s true the final climb suits Alejandro Valverde very well but I doubt Movistar can control the race all by themselves. They tried on stage 18 and look what happened.

The final 5 km of stage 19 on Alto de Naranco.

The final 40 km of stage 19 are the hardest. There are three categorized climbs on the menu but actually, the intermediate sprint is also placed on top of a hill with an average of nearly 5 %. Typical for the Vuelta. The penultimate climb of the day, Alto de la Manzaneda, is the steepest one. It’s only 3.6 km long but has an average gradient of 6.2 %.

After entering Oviedo the final 5.7 km are uphill towards the finishing line. Alto del Naranco has average gradient of just 4.2 % but there are a steep kilometer of nearly 10 % with 3 km to go. The final two kilometers have an average gradient of 6.5 % and take place in headwind. The last 300 meters are straight out with a tailwind and should a couple of riders arrive together, it may be an idea to try an early sprint out of the final corner.

If the peloton catches the breakaway, Alejando Valverde is the big favorite but the chances of that aren’t very good. I think the GC riders will be saving a little energy for Angliru and that means we - once again - should look to riders down out of the general classification.

First rider on my list is Bauke Mollema. He didn’t have the legs to go for the GC after the Tour but he stayed in the race aiming for a stage win. That win came on stage 17 when he took the peloton by surprise with a late attack. Mollema is targeting the World Championships in Florence later this month and he’s coming out of this Vuelta in great shape. The final climb suits Mollema perfectly and unlike many other, the Belkin captain doesn’t need to solo away in order to win. Bauke Mollema is very fast on the line and it’s probably only Valverde and Dani Moreno could can outsprint him on a finish like this one.

Another strong rider right now is Diego Ulissi. I’ve been naming him a couple of times already as a good candidate for an early breakaway but so far, Ulissi hasn’t been able to make it. However, the young Italian is climbing very well these days and this stage really suits him. He tried a late attack the other day but never really got away. This is Diego Ulissi’s last chance for a stage win and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to make that final breakaway. Lampre also has Michele Scarponi for a stage like this one together; Ulissi and Scarponi are a very dangerous duo for stage 19.

Team NetApp Endura has been doing extremely well so far in this Vuelta. Leo König is still sitting 8^th in the overall classification and Bartosz Huzarski was close to take the team’s second stage win the last time Warren Barguil won. König’s focus will be on Angliru but I think Huzarski has this stage marked in his road book. The strong Pole knows how to get into the right breakaways and he seems to be climbing very well right now. Furthermore, Huzarski is actually fast in an uphill sprint too. Don’t forget he took second place after Purito on stage 10 in the Giro last year.

For other good candidates looks to riders like; Warren Barguil, Rigoberto Uran, José Herrada, Ivan Santaromita, Rafa Valls, Andre Cardoso, Oliver Zaugg and the strong Euskaltel trio Igor Antón, Mikel Nieve and Mikel Landa. Euskaltel is aiming big at the team classification and we expect at least one orange rider in the breakaway.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

As expected, a break made it all the way on stage 15. Alexandre Geniez made sure the French spectators could celebrate the Vuelta visiting when he soloed away with 25 km to go. No changes in the overall classification as the first five riders stayed together all the time. Only Purito seemed to have energy to keep on trying to attack.

Monday’s stage is another hard day in the Pyrenees but not nearly as hard the last two days. The stage is only 146 km long and this time and it seems like the rain is now gone and the sun is back. Everybody is tired and it won’t be a surprise if an early breakaway manages to stay away again.

The first 20 km takes place in tailwind and this means we are in for another very fast start. Most likely, we will see a break getting away on Puerto de la Foradada. It’s only a category 3 climb but the 5.9 km towards the top still have an average gradient of 5.9 %. There are a lot of tired legs in the peloton after the last two days and it will be interesting who has something left in the tank.From the top of Puerto de la Foradada, the riders will have 60 km to cover in a light crosswind before the they start on the next climb. Puerto de Cotéfablo is 12.5 km long and has an average gradient of 4 %. It’s not a very steep climb but after the last two days, it won’t be a walk in the park either.

At this point on the stage, the wind has now changed and what started out as a tailwind is now a headwind. This means the final 30 km will be extremely hard for a breakaway and it's important to have saved something for the final climb. The ascent up to Aramón Formigal is 15.8 km long and has an average gradient of only 4 %. However, most of the first 6 km are either flat or downhill. The road start to kick up with 10 km to go and the following 3.5 km are steep with parts of nearly 10 %. The climbs then evens out for about 4 km before it gets steep again. The final 3.5 km have an average gradient of 7 % and this is where you can make the difference.

Aramón Formigal. 15.8 km / avg. 4 %. Last 3 km avg. 7 %.

In my preview for stage 15 I mentioned riders like Vasil Kiryienka, Mikel Landa and Diego Ulissi as good breakaway candidates. Landa made it into the break but didn’t have the strength to stay with Geniez. Kiryienka and Ulissi stayed in the peloton and once again, I’d like to point to those two as candidates for a break. I will add to that list riders like Egoi Martinez, Bauke Mollema, Marcos Garcia, Georg Preidler and Chris Anker Sørensen.

The last two names for the (long) list of good candidates are Amets Txurruka and Rigoberto Uran. Txurruka was very active in the beginning of stage 15 and he started several breakaways. However, Txurruka couldn’t cover every move and in the end the big break went away without him (but with two other Caja Rural riders). Rigoberto Uran too was very active on stage 15. He stayed with the favorites for most of the time and he even tried to get away a couple of times. Uran is obviously feeling better and being nearly 25 minutes after Vincenzo Nibali, he won’t be the first rider the peloton start chasing down.

Among the favorites, there are no doubts that Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner are the two strongest riders uphill right now. Actually, it’s probably Horner’s teammate Robert Kiserlovski who’s best climber at the moment. The Croatian champion is a very important help for Horner these days! The last two days have been tough on the riders and once again, it will be interesting to see how 41 years old Chris Horner will recover. Naturally, he can’t recover as fast as the younger riders but so far he doesn’t seem to have any problems at all.

Alejandro Valverde and especially Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez tried to attack on stage 15 but Nibali and Horner never let them get more than a few meters. The final climb is not very steep this time and it will be very difficult for the two Spaniards to get away. Valverde seems to be satisfied with third place overall and he’s probably paying more attention to Purito in 4^th place than to Horner in 2^nd place. Valverde knows he can outsprint Purito in the end Purito knows it too. The final three kilometers on Formigal are the steepest and I expect Purito to put in a couple of strong attacks in the hairpin corners trying to drop Valverde. It won’t be easy but it seems like Purito is very eager to make up for the lost time.

The final 3 km of stage 16. Avg. of 7 %.

Domenico Pozzovivo is only six seconds in front of Nicolas Roche in 5^th place but I don’t think he will have problems keeping the Irishman behind him. Pozzovivo has been very focused on not wasting any energy too early in the race. The Italian climber came to the race aiming for Top5 overall and he’s been saving energy for the last week. Roche has already put in numerous attacks and hadn’t he had a one minute gap to the favorites on the last climb on stage 15, he probably would have lost time again.

Samuel Sanchez is right now the best Euskaltel rider in the mountains and he too seems to be getting better and better every day. Sanchez can’t follow the top favorites when it gets steep but he’s clever and knows how to keep a good pace. The final climb on stage 16 has a couple of flat parts and I won’t surprise me to see Sanchez attack on the flat parts to get a good gap before the road kicks up again. He may even be able to win this stage like that if the peloton keeps the breakaway within striking distance.

The Vuelta pays homage to Fernando Escartín with this stage. The former Kelme captain never managed to win Vuelta a España but he was among the best climbers the country has ever produced.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 16, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Amets Txurruka to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

Daniele Ratto took a beautiful stage win in the rain when he soloed away to win on Collada de la Gallina. Belkin deserves to be mentioned as well though. The Dutch team put in play a brilliant plan but unfortunately, Luis León Sanchez crashed on the long descent and had to quit the race. So did Ivan Basso and since Purito and Valverde are not on top of their game, this Vuelta is down to the battle between Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner.

Stage 14 was a horrible day in the saddle for the riders and it won’t get any better this Sunday. In fact, it only gets worse as the stage is almost 100 km longer. The weather stays the same and there aren’t any less climbs on the menu. On paper, this is another good stage for a breakaway. The favorites will focus on each other and since Nibali and Horner are the strongest uphill, we probably won’t see Katusha and Movistar go hard for the stage win. At least not from the very beginning.

The riders start climbing after just 7 km of the stage when Puerto del Cantó starts. The 24.4 km towards the top have an average gradient of 4.2 %. It’s steepest in the beginning and we can expect a lot of attacks right from the start. From the top of Puerto del Cantó, there are still 50 km until the next climb starts and in tailwind, the breakaway has time to get a good gap.

The final 16.7 km of stage 15 up to Peyragudes.

After 81 km it’s time for Puerto de la Bonaigua. It’s another long climb - 20 km - and with an average gradient of 5,5 %, there won’t be many riders left in the peloton at the top. The descent is almost 65 km long and it’s extremely important to be wearing enough clothes. It will be a very cold day and if you forget to eat and stay warm, you probably won’t be able to cope with the tough final in France.

The last 50 km are the same as when Alejandro Valverde won on Peyragudes in the Tour de France last year. First Col du Port de Balés, then Col de Peyresourde and after a short descent it’s time for the final 4 uphill kilometers towards the finishing line. I think a breakaway will make it all the way again, especially with the tough start of the stage in the mind. There are still many hard climbs left in this Vuelta and the GC riders have to save as much energy as possible in this horrible weather.

I had big expectations for Euskaltel’s Mikel Landa heading into to this Vuelta. Landa did very well in Burgos and seemed to be in great shape. However, he hasn’t shown much of his qualities, until this Saturday. On the hardest stage of the race so far, Mikel Landa stayed with the favorites almost all the time and finished in 9^th place. Euskaltel tried a big play with three riders (Urtasun, Martinez & Antón) attacking but they didn’t manage to get away. It really seems like the team has woken up after the good news of Fernando Alonso saving the team. Mikel Landa is more than one hour after Nibali in the GC and he’s not a rider they will give many thoughts should he attack. It shows a lot of strength to do as well as Landa did on Stage 14 and if he can recover well enough, I think he will try to give Euskaltel their first stage win in their last Vuelta España - as we have known them for 20 years.

Another rider who did very well on Saturday’s tough stage is Vasil Kiryienka. With both of his captains out of the GC, Kiryienka can now take his own chance and he tried a couple of times on stage 14. He didn’t manage to get away but when they were only 10 riders left in front, Vasil Kiryienka was still there. He faded at bit in the end and finished 26^th but I’m sure his sensations were good. The strong Belarusian knows how to get into the winning breakaways and finish it off in the big mountains.

Weather forecast for stage 15. Click for larger view.

I also think Diego Ulissi has a good chance on this stage. The young Italian won the first mountain stage in Tour of Poland last month, also in rainy conditions. Ulissi is very strong on the climbs, not afraid of attacking and he packs a very good sprint as well. The final kilometer of stage 15 is flat and should it happen a few riders arrive together, it will be difficult to beat Diego Ulissi.

In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali already showed he doesn’t mind the harsh weather. He is right now the strongest rider in the race and I doubt he will let go of the Red Jersey anymore. Of course, everybody can have an off day and it’s important to recover well after Saturday’s struggle. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how soon-to-be 42 years old Chris Horner will cope with this long and difficult stage. So far he hasn’t shown any weaknesses uphill and with Robert Kiserlovski in outstanding shape, I guess the other GC riders just can’t drop him.

Alejandro Valverde said he had the worst day of his life on bike in Andorra. He was cold on the descents and it wasn’t until they started climbing he was able to get warm and find his rhythm. However, when he started to climb he was fast. Very fast! He overtook one rider after the other to finish 6^th on the stage. Valverde knows the final on this stage climbs very well and if he can cope with the bad weather and stay in front, he has a very good chance of repeating his stage win from last year.

Katusha wanted to set up Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez near his home in Andorra but Purito simply couldn’t follow the attacks from Horner and Nibali. He decided to keep his own pace and minimize his losses and now the Spanish climber is 2:57 min after Nibali in the overall classification. He has 1:05 min up to Valverde in third place and I think it will be very difficult for Purito to make the overall podium this year. Of course, anything can still happen on these stages but Purito needs to find stronger legs if he wants to distance his rivals uphill.

If you are looking for other interesting riders to make the early breakaway, look to guys like; Chris Anker Sørensen, Andre Cardoso, Amets Txurruka, Javi Moreno, Rafa Valls and Ivan Santaromita. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 15, Laura picks Mikel Nieve to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

Stage 2 gave us a lot of answers. Euskaltel had high hopes for Samuel Sanchez in their last Vuelta but the former Olympic Champion got dropped early on the final climb. Sergio Henao came to the race as one of the outsiders for the podium but the Colombian climber didn’t have a great day and ended up getting dropped with 4 km to go. Both Henao and Sanchez lost 2:41 min to Nicolas Roche who took a brilliant stage win.

Vincenzo Nibali is new rider in the Red Jersey and unless Astana decides to give it away, Nibali could very well end up having this jersey all the way to Madrid. Roche is second overall, eight seconds down, while Zubeldia, Horner and Kiserlovski all finished with the favorites on stage 2 and sit 10 seconds behind Nibali.

Monday’s stage 3 looks a little bit like stage 2. It’s another flat one alongside the Galician coast but this time a headwind will make it hard for a breakaway to get a big gap. The TV-viewers will be spoiled by images of the amazing scenery and like on stage 2, there will be time to enjoy it. Unless the wind splits up the peloton, the stage probably won’t get interesting until the final 20 km.

The final 5 km of stage 3 up to Mirador de Lobeira-

The riders will be struggling with the headwind for most of the day but with four kilometers to go, the peloton turns right and the final four kilometers uphill will take place in a strong tailwind. The ascent up to Mirador de Lobeira only has an average gradient of 4.8 % but it has some steep parts. 

Also, it’s extremely important to be near the front. With about 1.5 km to go the riders turns right on the very narrow Camiño Novo. There are parts of 8% on this little road and you need to be among the first five riders if you want to win this stage. If not, you simply can’t move up in the peloton before it’s too late. There are 10 bonus seconds on the line and should Nicolas Roche be able to make two out of two, he will take the Red Jersey. It’s not very likely but if Saxo-Tinkoff delivers him in front, it could happen.

Even though the final climb isn’t very long nor very steep, I highly doubt the few pure sprinters will have a chance. Guys likes Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews however, may have a chance. Both riders are in great shape, cope well with the hills and are very fast on the line. On paper, Phillipe Gilbert should have a chance but I don’t think he’s ready after his crash in Eneco Tour. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another rider who could do well on this finish but he’s not 100 % either. 

UPDATE: It's now been confirmed that the race organizers have widened the road the last 1.5 km towards the finishing line. You can see a photo of the new road here. The road is now twice as wide as before and this clearly favors guys like Meersman and Matthews.

The view from Mirador de Lobeira is spectacular. This is one of the last turns on the narrow road towards the line.
Photo via Google Maps.

Movistar cranked up the pace on the final climb on stage 2 but they didn’t have anyone ready to follow when Dani Moreno attacked. Alejandro Valverde easily won the sprint among the favorites and should Movistar decide to go hard on the part of 8 %, Valverde will be the man to beat. The strong Spaniard has been eager to point out that for him, the World Championship is more important than the Vuelta. Still, few in the professional peloton has a killer instinct like Valverde when he sees the finishing line. If sprinters like Meersman and Matthews aren’t in the peloton, I can’t see who should beat Valverde.

Simon Gerrans is here to prepare for the World Championship and on paper, this is a very good stage for him. However, I’m not quite sure if Gerrans is up for it already. Matthews is definitely GreenEdge’s best card to play and he comes to the Vuelta with two fresh stage wins from Utah in the bag.

In case Gianni Meersman doesn’t have a good day, Omega Pharma Quickstep has two other very interesting riders in Pieter Serry and Zdenek Stybar. Both are very good on these kind of climbs and both are  packing a solid sprint as well. I doubt they can outsprint Alejandro Valverde but with a late attack they may take the peloton by surprise. 

For other outsiders look to the two Italians Rinaldo Nocentini and Diego Ulissi. Nocentini did very well in Burgos lately and finished 5^th in Tre Valli Varesine just a week before the Vuelta started. Rinaldo Nocentini is fighting for a spot on the Italian team for the World Championship and this stage is almost tailor-made for the Ag2r veteran. Domenico Pozzovivo came close on stage 2 and it won’t be a big surprise if Nocentini comes close on stage 3.

Diego Ulissi used Tour of Poland as preparation for the Vuelta and he started out by outsprinting the whole peloton to take the leader’s jersey. He later faded but then finished in a strong way. Lampre tried to set up Ulissi for the stage win on stage 2 but he waited too long and had to settle with 6^th place after Valverde. 

Ulissi is still young and he’s not a rider for a three weeks Grand Tour just yet. He knows how to target one-day-races and specific stages and I’m sure he has his eyes on this one. It won’t be easy to win but if the strong climbers can get rid of guys like Meersman & Matthews, Diego Ulissi definitely has a chance to win on Mirador de Lobeira.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 3, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Follow the money

Who is going to win the race today? Maybe you need to update your manager team, maybe you are planning to put down a little money on the race or maybe you are just generally interesting in cycling. Whatever your reasons are to ask this question, the answer is very simple; follow the money - and then you will see.


Some people like to follow the expert’s picks – as you have been doing at this very site during the Tour and the Vuelta – while some prefers to follow their favorite tipster. You can get good picks this way, but if you want the great tips, you have to pay close attention to the bookmakers. Not on who the bookmakers think will win – let’s face it, they don’t really know more than you anyway – but pay attention to the riders whose odds suddenly start to drop heavily. It takes some time see it, but when you get the hang of it, it’s easy to see who the real favorites are.

Let me show you a couple of examples.

Giro d’Italia, stage 17 - May 25th.
On paper a typical breakaway stage. One of those stages where half of the peloton wants to give a shot and see what happens. As those of you who follow cycling closely know, this stage had names like Giovanni Visconti & Pablo Lastras written all over it and just like that both riders managed to get into the right breakaway. A coincident? No. These riders are experts in hitting the right breaks and therefore the odds on Visconti & Lastras aren’t very high at the start of the stage (around odds 10-20). The odds on a guy like Diego Ulissi are on the other hand much, much higher. Starting in around 200 or 300.

So, you might ask, how are you supposed to know that Ulissi is a good pick for this specific stage when the odds are so much higher on him than on ‘favorites’ like Visconti and Lastras? Well, this is where my thesis from before comes in handy – follow the money! It’s no secret that most bets on the cycling are placed in the final hours before the race starts. Therefore it’s a good idea to keep an open eye on the odds at this time. If you did back then, you would have had witness something very interesting. Suddenly the odds on Ulissi started to drop, from 300 to 200. From 200 to 100 and from 100 down to 40. It’s true that odds 40 still is a very high odds, but with the money placed on Ulissi it was easy to see that someone knew he was on fire that day.

6 hours later Diego Ulissi had won the stage. It’s true that he won because Visconti got disqualified in the sprint, but if you had bought Ulissi at odds 300 (or just 100) you would have been able to lay him on betting exchanges such as Betfair at odds 2 during the stage. In other words you would have been able to make a huge profit no matter what would have happen in the final sprint if you had followed the money and placed a bet on Ulissi when the odds on him started to drop.

Another example is from Paris-Tours last Sunday.
Usually the markets on cycling are very low at this point of the season. Meaning that the list of 20+ bookmakers with odds on the Tour de France is reduced to only a very few for Paris-Tours. One of these bookmakers is Betfair, but as always with these late season races, the liquidity is very low. That means that when the total amount of euro placed isn’t higher than a few thousands (many, many, many times lower than during the Tour) and then suddenly a rider at odds 100+ starting to get 20% of money it raises a few eyebrows. Or at least it should do!

The rider I’m talking about is Marco Marcato from Vacansoleil-DCM. Marcato sure seemed to be in the shape of his life, doing top10 in both of the Canadian races and winning Tour de Vendée just a week before, but to drop all the way down to odds 30 did seem a little off. Riders like Philippe Gilbert, Oscar Freire, Robbie McEwen, Sylvain Chavanel and the new World Champion Mark Cavendish were all to be considered as the big favorites for the race, and therefore it stands out when the few money on the race suddenly go to Marcato at such a high odds.

But just as the case with Diego Ulissi, Marco Marcato turned out to be the smart bet ending 2nd in the race behind Greg Van Avermaet. Starting at odds 100+ to win and odds 25 for a top3 spot, the Italian Vacansoleil-DCM rider sure made a few punters go to sleep happy that Sunday.

I could give a lot of examples like these two, but I think you got the basic idea now. So remember, if you want to get best picks for a race, always follow the money!