Vuelta a España: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

As suggested in the preview yesterday, we got the second Czech stage win in a row when Leopold König won stage 8. NetApp Endura had been working in front of the peloton for most of the day and this was truly an impressive victory for the wild card team.

Stage 9 is one I’ve personally been looking forward too. On paper, this is not a very demanding stage but the final 45 km are very tough. There aren’t any big climbs on the menu but with just 22 km to, the peloton faces Alto de la Frailes. The 6.2 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.8 % and we can expect Katusha and Movistar to set a furious pace. Coming down from the top, the first 7 km are flat before the final kilometer rises towards the line. In 2010 and 2011 we had a single rider in front at this point (Uran in 2010 & Moncoutie in 2011) but you need almost a minute before the final kilometer if you want to make it all the way.

The final 1000 meters up to the finishing line is extremely steep. There are gradients of nearly 30 % and not surprisingly, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is the big favorite. In 2010, he attacked too early and ran out of gas as Igor Antón went away on the final 300 meters. In 2011, Purito took no chances. His teammate Dani Moreno hit the front as soon as the steep gradients started and only Purito, Vincenzo Nibali and Wout Poels managed to follow. Nibali couldn’t keep up the pace and like Antón the year before, Purito put in his final attack with 300 meters to go.



I expect the same scenario this year. The way I see it, nobody can beat Purito & Moreno on the finish like this one. Dani Moreno seems to be in the shape of his life right now and knowing that Purito is the team leader, I think they will try to repeat the performance from 2011. Vincenzo Nibali was the first to respond to Katusha’s attacks in 2010 and 2011 but it seems like he’s still missing a little bit at this point.

It starts to show that Alejandro Valverde wants to win the World Champions more than the Vuelta. However, few have Valverde’s killer instinct when he sees the line. The steep gradients are definitely better suited for Purito than for Valverde but compared to Nibali and Basso, Valverde should be able to gain a little time.

Nicolas Roche is new rider in the Red Jersey and as I pointed out in the overall preview, the Irishman seems to be extremely motivated to finally crack top5 overall in a Grand Tour. Roche finished 8^th in Valdepeñas de Jaén in both 2010 and 2011. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff leader will probably lose 7-10 seconds to Purito on this stage and therefor Roche shouldn’t have problems keeping the Red Jersey. The only way - as I see it - that Roche can lose the jersey is if Moreno wins the stage - gets the 10 bonus seconds - and distances Roche with 7 seconds.

Another important factor at this point in the race is the fatigue. This is the 9^th stage in a row without a rest day and many riders will be on the limits. Add to that the extreme temperatures the last couple of days. Samuel Sanchez, Roman Kreuziger & Bauke Mollema are already almost out of the GC and we could see a few more lose ground this Sunday. The time differences won’t be very big but if you have a bad day, you can easily lose 45 seconds on the final kilometer. It may not sound of much but it’s of huge psychological value.

It’s difficult to point at a joker for this stage. Purito and Moreno are in a league of their own on this kind of finishes and without Carlos Betancur in good shape, no one really has what it takes to beat them. Sergio Henao and Domenico Pozzovivo are both strong on the steep gradients but they need to attack right from the bottom if they want to win this stage. Pozzovivo’s teammate Rinaldo Nocentini is usually good on a finish like this but against the GC riders, I doubt he win. Igor Antón came close on stage 8 but I don’t think he has the same kick he had in 2010 when he won. Wout Poels too is far from his Vuelta shape from 2011 when he finished 2^nd. A super joker could be Ivan Santaromita. The Italian champion is in great shape right now and with only 58 kg to carry, he has what it takes to stay in front on the steep gradients.

Last but not least, we can’t forget about the World Champion Philippe Gilbert. Like last year, he seems to be getting better and better as the Vuelta progresses. Had this been 2011, we all know who would win the stage. However, Gilbert doesn’t have the same kick he had two years ago and with parts of 30 %, I can’t see him beat Purito and Moreno. He may take 3^rd place on the stage but to me, it would be a little surprising to see him take his first win in the rainbow jersey here.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 9, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

Chris Froome, Richie Porte and the rest of Team Sky destroyed the peloton on the first Pyrenees stage. Many will say that the Tour is already over and if Team Sky keep it up like this, many will be right. Movistar and Team Saxo-Tinkoff need put on pressure early on the next mountains stages if they want to shake Team Sky. Probably already on Stage 9.

The Route

This is short stage of just 168.5 km but with five hard climbs on the menu, it will be anything but easy. The riders targeting the Polka Dot Jersey will have this stage red-circled in their road books and with a downhill finish, it’s tailor-made for a breakaway.

The two first climbs are steep and I think a solid breakaway of 10+ riders will get away already on Col de Portet d'Aspet. The intermediate sprint is located after 73 km and I wouldn’t be surprised if Peter Sagan tries to join the morning breakaway in order to extend his lead in the Green Jersey even more. Sagan took it easy on Stage 8 and in Tour de Suisse he showed to be one of the strongest riders on the steepest climb of the race. Sagan has been training hard in the mountains this year and even though I doubt he will win this stage, he’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

The Finish

With 95 km to go the, riders face the longest climb of today’s stage. Col de Peyresourde is 13.2 km and has an average gradient of 7 % with steep parts towards the top. There are still 78.5 km to the finishing line from the top of Peyresourde and even though it would be great to see, I doubt any of the favorites will take a chance. Team Sky will set the pace on the next climb too but on La Hourquette d'Ancizan the fireworks should begin. This is only the second time in the history of the Tour the riders will have to overcome La Hourquette d'Ancizan. In 2011, it was the third last climb on the stage finishing on Luz-Ardiden but this time it will be more crucial for the results.

The 9.9 km towards the top have an average gradient of 7.5 % and it’s very steep in the beginning. It won’t be easy to take Team Sky by surprise but if Quintana, Valverde or Contador attack from the start, it will definitely spice up the race. Reaching the top of La Hourquette d'Ancizan, the first part of the descent is technical. After a few kilometers the road kicks up a little and from here on the descent is very fast towards the line. It won’t be easy to stay away alone and if you arrive in a reduced group, you have to pay close attention to the finish.

There is a 90° left turn with just 150 meters to go after crossing the water and you need to be first man into this corner if you want to win the stage. 

The final three climbs of the stage. Click for larger view.

The Favorites

Looking at the profile for this stage, especially one name comes to mind; Thomas Voeckler. The French animateur tried an early attack on Stage 8 but didn’t have the legs to finish it. Voeckler has been suffering in the heat the last couple of days but if he’s ready, this is a dream stage for him. Few in the peloton are as good as Thomas Voeckler on the downhill sections and few know how to hit the right breakaway like him. Europcar are targeting the Polka Dot Jersey and this if you want to win it, you need to be in front on Stage 9.

I believe a breakaway will make it on this stage but if not, Alejandro Valverde seems to be the favorite. Valverde is in great shape and he has a strong team to protect him. He’s good on the descents and he’s very fast on the line. I think Valverde will have at least two teammates with him arriving at the finish and that should be enough to set him up for the sprint. Dani Moreno is another candidate but it all depends on how Purito is feeling. If he has another bad day on the climbs, Moreno will be locked. If not, we should see a good fight between Valverde and Moreno.

The Jokers

I already mentioned Peter Sagan and as my joker earlier but let’s pick two. Mikel Nieve and Igor Antón both did well on Stage 8 and I will continue picking a Basque rider as my joker. Both Nieve and Antón are just 3 minutes after Chris Froome in the overall classification and I doubt Team Sky will let them get away. The Izagirre brothers, Ion and Gorka, on the other hand are way down in the GC. Both are strong uphill and especially Gorka Izagirre is also very good on the descents. All teams know this is day where a breakaway can make it, and in the Pyrenees, Euskaltel will be extra motivated to show the orange colors. Gorka Izagirre did go down in the big crash on Stage 5 but he still managed to finish 21^st the following day. If he’s ready, this is a very good stage for him.

Other strong riders like Thomas De Gendt, Sylvain Chavanel, Damiano Cunego and Michael Albasini all know how to hit the right breakaway but I can’t pick all of them so I’ll stick to the riders already mentioned.

Favorites: Thomas Voeckler & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Peter Sagan & Gorka Izagirre

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 9:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

After eight tough stages, it’s now time to settle the overall classification. Tour de Suisse often ends with a time trial but never one like this.

Despite the distance of just 26.8 km, the riders are in for a day full of pain. The profile is extremely brutal with a final section of 10.3 km uphill with an average gradient of 9 %. The first 16.5 km are flat so we can expect the riders to start out on a time trial bike and then change to a road bike before the climb starts.

The first time check comes at the end of the flat part. This means that the fastest riders at this point not necessarily will be the fastest in the end.  Starting on the climb, the first 5.4 km have an average of 8.5 % before reaching the second time check. From here, there are 4.9 km to the finishing line and the average gradient of 9.5 % will make for a very hard finish.

Tour of California had a similar time trial this year ending with a steep climb. Many riders decided to change bike at the beginning of the climb but not Tejay van Garderen who won the stage. In California the climb was only 2.6 km though, so we should expect even van Garderen to make a bike change this time.

The young American is also the big favorite for this stage. He decided to take his own change on Stage 7 and not wait for Mathias Frank. Overall, Tejay van Garderen is now 1:17 min after his teammate in yellow and he still has a change of winning Tour de Suisse or at least make podium. It won’t be easy to take a minute on Rui Costa but if anyone in this race can do it, it’s Tejay Van Garderen.

The final 3 km of the stage. Very steep. 

Fabian Cancellara will be eager to take revenge from the opening time trial. The change of wind most likely cost him the stage win but I doubt he will be among the best this time. Cancellara will probably set best time at the first check point but 10.3 km with 9 % is not his terrain. Not even against the clock.

Instead, we should look to riders like Simon Spilak, Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jean-Christophe Peraud. Brajkovic has been getting better and better during the race and he seems to be ready for the Tour soon. The Slovenian rider has always been good against the clock and I think he will test himself and do very well in this time trial. Jean-Christophe Peraud is Ag2r’s designated Tour de France captain and I also see him getting stronger every day. In Paris-Nice earlier this year, Peraud distanced Tejay van Garderen with 20 seconds on the final uphill time trial. The American is clearly stronger right now but it shows that Peraud can be among the bests against the clock.

Another strong candidate for the win is Cameron Meyer. He won the opening time trial but many will say it was because the wind changed. Meyer is not a pure climber but he’s been very solid in the mountains and sits 8^th overall before the stage. I think the Australian will be eager to show that he can also win without a change of weather and I expect him to make podium on the stage. Not in the overall classification though.

My joker is Bauke Mollema. Many don’t see Mollema as strong time trialist but he’s actually not bad at all. The course favors him with the long and steep climb and if he can minimize his time loss on the flat part, he should be able to fight for the overall win. It won’t be easy to beat Rui Costa with 34 seconds but don’t forget Mollema’s time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco last year. On a hilly and very difficult course, Mollema took second place after Samuel Sanchez, beating World Champion Tony Martin in the process. I also expect Thibaut Pinot to do well. He will lose time ont the flat part but like Mollema, it shouldn't be much more than he can take back on the climb. 

Rui Costa is right now the big favorite to win Tour de Suisse for the second year in a row. It’s more or less his race to lose and it will be interesting to see how the Portuguese copes with that pressure. Few - except for the Swiss fans - expect Mathias Frank to keep Rui Costa behind him and I think that plays in Frank’s favor. Despite starting the stage in yellow, he’s still the underdog. It’s difficult to predict the outcome of a time trial like this one but I think it will end with Rui Costa winning overall. BMC should be able to put at least one rider on the final podium but who will it be?

Favorite: Tejay van Garderen

Jokers: Bauke Mollema & Jean-Christophe Peraud

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Giro d'Italia: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

This stage looks like a dress rehearsal for the World Championship in Florence later this year and like Stage7, this one has ‘breakaway’ written on its forehead. The route takes place in Giovanni Visconti’s backyard and with four categorized climbs, the Italian will be eager to both keep his KOM jersey and win the stage. As always, it’s difficult to talk about favorites for stages like this one but to me, Giovanni Visconti is the man to beat.

Vini-Fantini put in an amazing amount of work on Stage 7, but instead of closing the rest of the gap - they got it down form 7 min to 1½ min - they attacked with Taborre who already had been working in front of the peloton. Not exactly the smartest tactical choice by Luca Scinto’s team but I’m sure they are now ready for revenge. Danilo Di Luca, Mauro Santambrogio and Matteo Rabottini are all very good on these kind of stages and especially Di Luca looks very strong right now.

The last climb of the stage, Fiesole - which is also on the World Champions course - is only 2.9 km short but its average gradient of 5.7% and 11% in the beginning will serve as an excellent place to attack. There are only 10 km to go from the top of Fiesole and it’s a technical run-in to the line from here. The last 1700 meters kick up with 3% and after three tough days in the saddle, it’s important to have something left in tank for the final meters.

I picked Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez as my joker for Stage 7, but since Emanuelle Sella made the break rather quickly, Rubiano never got to place his hand. Instead, he has been waiting for this stage and I’m sure he will be eager to finally make the right breakaway. Rubiano is very strong uphill and he’s fast on the line too. The stage he won in the Giro last year is similar to this one and since Androni seem to be represented in every breaks this year, the chances of Rubiano hitting the right break are not bad at all.

Stefano Pirazzi is another good joker for this stage. He’s targeting the KOM jersey and with the four KOM sprints on the menu, Pirazzi knows this is a great day to attack. He hasn’t had much luck with his late attack so far in the race, but now he’s 7:49 down in the GC and no longer an imminent threat to the Pink Jersey. Still, Pirazzi needs to get away alone in order to win this stage since his not very fast in a sprint. Bardiani also have Enrico Battaglin, should the break be caught, and if they don’t manage to put a man up front, we will see them work hard for the Young Italian.

Many will be looking forward to the rest day on Monday but I doubt we will get a quite stage to watch. There are still plenty of opportunities to attack and with Bradley Wiggins having troubles on the descents, surely his rivals need to see if they can take even more time on him before the mountains. I doubt Vini-Fantini will miss the break this time and if they, Androni and Bardiani all get a man in the morning break, it will most likely make it to the line.

Also, look out for Eros Capecchi. He came to the Giro with big ambitions, but allergy problems knocked him out early in the race. The last couple of days have been better for him and this is a stage he has been targeting for a while. Capecchi is good uphill, uphill and he's fast. If he's having a good day, he could very well end up giving Movistar their second stage win in a row. 

Favorite: Giovanni Visconti

Top3 Pick: Danilo Di Luca

Jokers: Miguel Angel Rubiano Chaves / Stefano Pirazzi / Eros Capecchi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 9:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 9

It’s the last stage before the first rest day and many riders are tired after more than a week in 35°c. It’s the second longest stage in this Vuelta España and I think it would suit the peloton perfectly if a break could get away. That being said there are quite a lot of riders who will have marked this stage in the race book for a potential sprint in Barcelona.

The stage is 196,3 km but actually it’s only the final 5 km you should be concerned about. Entering Barcelona the peloton faces Alto de Montjuic up to the Olympic stadium. It’s only 1,1 km long but an average gradient of 8,1% should bring the attacking feeling out in the many riders. From the top of Montjuic there are only 3,4 km to go and if a strong rider gets a gap he will be difficult to catch on the tricky descent before the last 700 meters uphill.

The final 5 km of stage 9 - click for larger view!

I know for a fact that Danish Matti Breschel has this stage red-circled and I’m sure he will try go for it if it comes to a sprint. Still I have to say my favorite for the win will be have to be Gianni Meersman (look ma', - not Swift!). 

The Belgian sprinter has shown super shape in the first week and he even managed to stay with the best a long way up the nasty finish in Jaca where he ended 19^th on the stage. Lotto-Belisol haven’t really much to do in this race without Jurgen Van den Broeck going for the GC and if they are to get any kind of success Gianni Meersman will definitely be their best card to play.

For a joker I put my faith in Pim Ligthart. Vacansoleil-DCM have - as always - been very active in the breaks so far in this Vuelta but so far without getting much out of it. Thomas de Gendt came close the other day and same de Gendt told me before the Vuelta to keep an eye on Ligthart. So far the former Dutch champion hasn’t shown much but I think that if he can stay near the front on Montjuic he could be a good joker for the stage.

I can only pick one joker, but I would like to point out that this finish also suits Simon Clarke perfectly! I don’t know if GreenEdge want to give Davis another chance but in my opinion they should let Clarke have a crack at it. Purito has also said he would like to something in his home town and together with Dani Moreno, Katusha could really spice up this stage if they attack on Montjuic!

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Pim Ligthart

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: José Joaquin Rojas

Joker: Biel Kadri

Explanation: The easy money is on John Degenkolb making it four but that tricky Montjuic climb towards the end could well prove too hard for Argos Shimano to control. Jose Rojas has been quiet so far but he should get over the rise and then have enough juice to take the sprint in Barcelona. As for a wildcard, Biel Kadri is a nice all rounder who could pull off a win from a break. It's a bit of a stab in the dark, but that's the point of choosing a joker!

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 9 (ITT)

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We will end the first part of the Tour de France the same way we started it; against the clock! This is not a very hilly time trial but it’s not a flat one either. There are no categorized climbs on the menu but just before the first time check it’s uphill for about 1,5 km with over 10%. This means that the first split time can cheat us a bit since most of the strong time trialists aren’t that great at changing rhythm. After time check there’s a fast, technical descent before the second split time and then there's the long stretch home. Last part of the route is slightly downhill towards the line.

Favorites:

Unless this is the first bike race you are watching within the last 5 years you shouldn’t be surprised to see Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins as the two big favorites. It should have been a three-man fight for the win, but since the last week only has been about surviving for Tony Martin after his crash, I doubt that he will be ready to challenge Cancellara and Wiggins.

Bradley Wiggins says it’s a very technical course and I that means it should suit both him and Cancellara very well. Before the Tour started Cancellara said he wanted to ride only focusing on getting ready for the Olympic Time Trial 3½ weeks ahead.  Thing is that he won the prologue and has been working hard every since to honor the yellow jersey - even on the nasty finish in La Planche des Belles Filles. If Fabian Cancellara had been saving some energy the last week I would have put him down as my winner pick, but to be honest I think Bradley Wiggins is the better choice.

Wiggins knows that this is his first big chance to take a lot (!) of time on his main rivals for the overall victory and he showed in Dauphiné that he’s on the very top of his game right now. In Dauphiné he almost caught Cadel Evans, starting two minutes ahead of him, and even though I don’t think it will happen this time, I’m sure that Wiggins will take at least one minute on Evans in Besançon.

Another important rider when we talk the overall classification is Bradley Wiggin’s team mate Chris Froome. In the Vuelta España last year Froome actually beat Wiggins on the long time trial in Salamanca by 23 seconds (and Fabian Cancellara too by 28 seconds) so he sure knows how to ride a good time trial against the elite. Chris Froome has also been picked for the British Olympic team for the time trial (44 km) and this is a great way to show that he is ready for that too. I won’t go as far as saying that Froome will win this stage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the last spot on the podium after Wiggins and Cancellara.

Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins

Top3 pick: Chris Froome 

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 9

Gianni Savio explains:

This is a sprint stage. For sure it is. A sprinter in good condition will have no problems with that little climb in the end. I feel pretty sure to say it will end in a mass sprint. Maybe we will see the Italian sprinters like Modolo, Belletti and Guardini do something here.

I hope Roberto Ferrari will be able to fight for the win but my favorite is Mark Cavendish again.