World Championship - Road Race Preview & Favorites

It’s finally time. This Sunday, the elite men’s road race is on and we are in for quite a show. It’ the most open World Championship in a while and with a rainy weather forecast; anything can happen!

In total, the race is 272.2 km long. The day starts in Lucca and from here; the riders have 100 km to overcome before they reach Florence. There are two climbs on this first part; Montecarlo (3.75 km / 3.5 %) and San Baronto (3.9 / 7.1 %). These two climbs won’t make for a selection but especially San Baronto will serve as an appetizer of what waits the riders later on.

When reaching Florence the riders starts on 10 laps of 16.57 km. The first two kilometers are flat but then the road kicks up. The Fiesole climb is 4.37 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The gradients barely drop below 7 % the last 1500 meters and this is where we find the steep parts of over 10 %. There are 10 km to the line from the top of Fiesole. The descent starts out very technical but then gets easier with nice and soft turns. However, there is a very steep part and then a difficult 90° left turn with about 8.7 km to go. If the rains, riders chasing to get back have to pay close attention to this corner in order not to see their chances disappear in a crash.

The following 2 km are fast very fast and after a sharp right hand turn, it’s time to climb again. The 600 meters on Via Salviati have an average gradient of 10 % and include a part of 200 meters with over 16 % towards the top. There are only 5 km to go from the top of Via Salviati and as the final part is very fast, it won’t be easy to catch a small group of riders if they get a gap over the top. With a less than 3 km to the line, the riders turn left and the following 150-200 meters are uphill with parts of 10 %. This may be the last place to attack if you want to solo away. The road kicks up a little again as the rider cross the railroad and after a 180° corner, the final 1500 meters are flat and straight out towards the line.

Everybody seems to have a different opinion on the best way to prepare for this World Championship and which riders it favors. It’s hard to keep track but here is some of the statements:

•           You need to ride Vuelta España.
•           This is a route for the climbers.
•           You need to be fast.
•           You need to be explosive on the climbs.
•           Don’t count on the Vuelta riders, the last week was too hard.
•           You need to be able to win on this kind of distance.

Confused? I understand. It may not look like there is a rider who can tick off every single criteria. However, there is one. More about him a little later.

First, let’s look at the teams with the most responsibility this Sunday. Spain has the strongest team (9 riders) with Contador, Purito and Valverde but home favorites Italy (9) isn’t far behind with the likes of Scarponi, Ulissi and Nibali. The Netherlands (Gesink, Mollema, Slagter), Switzerland (Cancellara, Albasini) and Colombia (Quintana, Uran, Henao, Betancur) also have nine riders at the start. So does France but I would be surprised to see them start working in the peloton. The French riders have to be aggressive in the attacks and with Pinot, Barguil and Voeckler they have enough firepower to put in a couple of strong attacks on the final laps.

Peter Sagan (Slovakia) has five teammates to help him, among these are the Velits brothers, Peter and Martin, plus Sagan’s own brother Juraj. Sagan would like this race to be as easy as possible and hope for a big group together on the final lap. Therefore I doubt Slovakia will put much effort into chasing the breaks early on. Last year’s winner, Philippe Gilbert and Belgium have seven riders at the start this time and compared to last year, they will be more aggressive. Gilbert needs a hard race with a big selection and if so, he will probably have to attack on Via Salviati on the last lap and get away with a couple of riders. This is his best chance of winning in Florence.

Profile of the circuit in Florence. 10 laps of 16.57 km.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara is the number one favorite. The Swiss Time Machine pays 3 to 1. It’s nothing new that Cancellara has a red circle around the World Championship but usually it’s focused around the time trial. This year, Fabian Cancellara has put everything into becoming World Champion in the road race instead. He has lost some kilos and in the Vuelta España, he showed to be in great shape on the climbs. As a warm-up for the road race, Cancellara has done both the team time trial (last Sunday) and the individual time trial (last Wednesday). Radioshack finished 4^th in the TTT while Cancellara took the bronze medal in the ITT, only two seconds form second place. There is no doubt that Fabian Cancellara is in great shape right now but is he strong enough to keep stay with the punchy climbers on Via Salviati? Remember, in total this race has more than 60 km of climbing. It’s not “just” a usually tough one day race, it’s a regular mountain stage. If Cancellara has to fight his way back after both Fiesole and Via Salviati, how much energy will he has left for the expected late attack in the final On the other hand, the U23 winner Matej Mohoric said he didn’t think the course was that hard and makes Cancellara one of the two big favorites.

The other top favorite is Peter Sagan. Sagan usually don’t have any problems on these kind of climbs and to make sure he doesn’t get dropped, he went to train hard in the mountains earlier this season. It quickly paid off and in Tour de Suisse, he actually won the mountain stage with the steepest climb in the race. Peter Sagan does well in the short time trials, he can sprint and he can solo away to win as well. It’s difficult to find any flaws but if there is one, it may be the distance. Sagan is yet to win a race over 250 km and even though he has come close a couple of times, it’s still one thing missing on his impressive palmares.

The Spanish duo Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez makes it hard to imagine a final podium without a Spanish rider. Valverde is a true specialist in these kind of one-day races and Purito too knows how prepare for a single day and then deliver. Both have been on the podium in the past but neither has ever won. This year both Valverde and Purito aimed at the Tour de France this summer. Afterwards they started out the Vuelta with the intention of getting ready for this Sunday. They finished 3^rd and 4^th overall in the Vuelta and seem very strong at the moment. Especially, Purito finished the Vuelta strong and I think he’s Spain’s best card to play. Few - if any - can match Purito’s kick on the steep gradients and I would imagine he would try to split the group on Via Salviati the last time. We saw in the U23 race that Via Salviati creates a lot more damage than Fiesole and the steep gradients really suits Purito who’s also good on the descent. Furthermore, Purito showed in Giro di Lombardia last year, that he can win in the rain as well. Of course, if it ends in a sprint of 10+ riders, Alejandro Valverde is the best option for Spain and if Peter Sagan isn’t in the group, Valverde shouldn’t have problems outsprinting the rest.

The last one of the top favorites is Vincenzo Nibali. He’s riding on home soil in Italy and naturally the expectations are high. Italy hasn’t be able to deliver since 2008 when the finished 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th in Varese. Now the World Championship is back in Italy and after Nibali won the Giro d’Italia and finished second overall in the Vuelta, everybody expect another top performance from the shark. To help Nibali take the rainbow jersey, Italy sends strong riders like Michele Scarponi, Rinaldo Nocentini, Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Diego Ulissi. Italy’s big problem in the past has been too many captains, this time it’s different. Pozzato and Scarponi are both in great shape but they have to leave their big egos at home. Ulissi is double junior world champion and I have no doubts he’ll win the elite’s race one day as well. Diego Ulissi is strong on the climbs and fast on the line. However, he’s not very good on the descents especially not if the roads are wet. Vincenzo Nibali needs to attack on Fiesole and make an early selection, then he probably has to dig deep again on Via Salviati and then attack on the descent as he has done in the past. Nibali knows his only chance is to solo away and I’m sure he won’t think twice if he sees an opening in the final.

As I wrote earlier, there actually is one rider fitting all the listed statement. This rider is Dan Martin. He started the Vuelta, he didn’t ride the last week of the race, he’s a climber, he’s explosive, he’s fast on the line and he has proven to be able to win on the long distance (LBL this year). After crashing out of the Vuelta, Dan Martin took part in Tour of Britain as his last preparation for the World Championship. He raced very aggressively and showed on the climbs that he is still going very strong. So far, 2013 has already been a great season for Dan Martin after winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege and stage 9 of the Tour de France. He has been targeting the Rainbow Jersey for a while and he has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking from afar if necessary. I think the most likely scenario for this race, is a small group of about five riders arriving at the finishing together. If Dan Martin is in this group, he will be very difficult to beat.

Earlier this year, Colombia seemed to have one of the most powerful teams for this race. However, both Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur didn’t really deliver in the Vuelta and it’s doubtful they will be able to perform - as previously expected - this Sunday. Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran are still two very strong outsiders but it won’t be easy for the Colombians to continue their dominance this season. Nairo Quintana’s father is hoping to visit the Pope when the race is over and naturally, it would be amazing for the humble climber to join his parents with the Pope carrying the Rainbow Jersey. I don’t think it will be happen though.

Map of the circuit in Florence.

Before this preview gets too long to read, let’s have a look at some of the jokers for the win. My personal joker is Rui Costa. Like Dan Martin, Rui Costa has already had a great season with the overall win in Tour de Suisse and two impressive stage wins in Tour de France. The World Championship has been a big goal for Rui Costa all season and the course really suits him. Portugal only has three riders in the race but both Andre Cardoso and Tiago Machado are dedicated to help Rui Costa win the Rainbow Jersey.

Another strong outsider is Chris Froome. Not since Greg Lemond in 1989 has a Tour de France winner went on to become World Champion. This year Froome has a unique chance of doing so but he knows he requires a hard race with a big selection. In the beginning of August, Chris Froome went to check out the course and train on the roads. He did the Via Salviati climb 10 times and he knows what to expect. After finishing the Tour, Froome immediately started talking about the World Championship and after training hard in North America the last weeks, he now seems ready. Like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome most likely has to solo away in order to win this race but don’t forget he actually outsprinted both Contador and Purito in Tour of Oman earlier this year.

For other jokers look to in-shape Robert Gesink and Thomas Voeckler, one-day specialist Alexandr Kolobnev and strong all-rounder Edvald Boasson Hagen. For the super-super jokers I’ll like to mention season revelation Tanel Kangert, World Champion specialist Matti Breschel and youngster Tom-Jelte Slagter who has a good kick on the hills and is fast on the line.

For live coverage of the race go to steephill.tv

Tour de Suisse: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

This 8^th stage of Tour de Suisse seems like a good one for a breakaway to make it. The GC favorites will be happy to get a quiet day before the final time trial and for many teams this is the last chance to get a stage win in the race.

The stage is 180.5 km long and we can expect a fast start despite a head win. After just 37 km the riders face the category 1 climb up to the Julierpass. The 6.8 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 % and serve as an excellent place for a breakaway to be established. After reaching the top, the riders head north towards the finish town Bad Ragaz. It takes almost 60 km before the riders are done with the long descent and afterwards it’s flat for another 40 km before reaching the finishing line for the first time. From here, they loop around Bad Ragaz for about 40 km. With 9.1 km to go it’s time for a steep category 3 climb.  It’s only 2.8 km long but has an average gradient of 7.3 %. There is just 6.3 km to go from the top of the climb and the descent is very fast. The last two kilometers towards the finishing line are flat.

There are two scenarios for this stage. In the first, a break gets away on the category 1 climb and makes it all the way. Naturally, the last climb will be a great place to test your fellow escapees and a strong rider with most likely be able to keep his gap if he gets away over the top. In the second scenario, a break gets away but teams like Cannondale, BMC, Saxo-Tinkoff and GreenEdge work together in order to catch them. I think the last climb is too hard for the pure sprinters to stay up front. Riders like Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert, Matti Breschel and Matt Goss seem like much better candidates. Sagan is without a doubt the fastest of these but Gilbert must be eager finally to win in the Rainbow Jersey. If he gets away on the final climb, he will be very difficult to catch. Saxo-Tinkoff have been trying to set up Matti Breschel the last couple of days and without having to work for Roman Kreuziger on this stage, they can focus on the fast Dane. GreenEdge have a couple of riders for a stage like this one. On a good day, Matt Goss is up there but if not, teammate Daryl Impey and Michael Albasini look good.

Albasini is also a good candidate for an early breakaway. He tried to get into the morning break on Stage 7 and this is the last chance for Albasini to get a win on home soil in this year’s Tour de Suisse. Albasini is strong uphill, good downhill and very fast on the line. Another rider for a break is Martin Elmiger. IAM Cycling haven't had much luck in this race so far and they need to finish in a strong way. Elmiger became a father earlier in the race and the Swiss rider will be motivated to hit the right break in order to dedicate a stage win to his newborn daughter Julia.

Favorites: Peter Sagan & Philippe Gilbert

Jokers: Michael Albasini & Martin Elmiger

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

World Champions Preview - Road Race

Ever since this course was revealed, one rider has been everybody’s big time favorite; Philippe Gilbert. He was unbeatable last season and with the finishing line like just a few kilometers after Cauberg, I too couldn’t really see any other rider taking the rainbow jersey. That was last year though. This season Gilbert has struggled to perform and if it hadn’t been for his two stage wins in Vuelta España I think many would have only counted Gilbert as a dark horse for this Sunday. Now he’s suddenly the big favorite again and even though I must admit it’s hard not to take him as my winner pick, I honestly see a handful of riders able to challenge him.

The fact that the finish line is located 1,7 km after the top of Cauberg means that riders like Peter Sagan, Simon Gerrans and Alejandro Valverde will have a good chance of coming back if Gilbert should manage to drop them. And yes, I think it all will come down to Cauberg. The Belgian team and the Spanish team are simply too strong and with a course like this one they can’t afford not to work hard in order to keep it together in the end. Furthermore they will have Slovakia (6 riders) and probably Australia (9 riders) to help out as well. Simon Gerrans may not want to go up mano a mano with Gilbert and Sagan but he sure doesn’t want to attack 50 kilometers out either. He has been showing great shape lately and Australia need to make sure he gets delivered in a perfect position. This means we have at least four teams to control the peloton and even though opportunistic riders like Thomas Voeckler, Vincenzo Nibali and Alexander Kolobnev want to have a say too, I think this World Champion (like last year) will be won by one of the big favorites.

For quite some time I’ve been naming Alejandro Valverde as my personal favorite for the rainbow jersey and I won’t change that. Despite a hard Tour de France it seems like Valverde came out of the Vuelta as one of the strongest riders and even though Spain have 9 guys who can win this race, I think it will be a mistake not to aim to win with Valverde. Oscar Freire, Dani Moreno, Samuel Sanchez and Purito are all excellent riders for this type of course but in a sprint right after Cauberg none of them can match Valverde’s finish - not even Freire! Alejandro Valverde has a very rare killer instinct when he sees the finish line, like Danilo Di Luca, and if he’s in the front when the approaching Cauberg for the last time, I think  he will be more than difficult to beat. The way I see it, this will be a fight between Valverde, Gilbert and Sagan - probably in that order too as Sagan doesn’t seem as fast right now as earlier this year.

As always I have a couple of jokers too and this being the World Champions one of these is Matti Breschel. I’m not just been patriotic, I actually think Matti has a solid chance of another medal. He should have won in Australia two years ago and after two years full of bad luck it’s now time to take revenge. He showed in Vuelta a Burgos that his shape is good when he won Stage 3 and again in the Vuelta when he tried to anticipate Gilbert’s winning move in La Lastrilla. According to himself he’s not among the favorites and that’s true. He’s not a favorite, but he is one of the outsiders. Matti Breschel is an excellent championship rider who always performs on the big scenes and if he has one of his great days he should do top10 for sure and why not podium again…

Another joker is Moreno Moser. The young Italian has been outstanding in this first year as professional with many great wins and together with Vincenzo Nibali and Oscar Gatto, Moser is probably the best Italian pick for a medal. For the first time in many years the Italian team isn’t build around one rider and that means Azzurri will have to attack, attack and attack if they want to win. Nibali has never been afraid of attacking from afar and even though he often lack some tactical sense you’ve got to admire his way of riding. Like Nibali, Moreno Moser also knows how to take the peloton by surprise. Despite his young age I would say we already know his signature move - a late attack within the final kilometers. Moser has an outstanding engine and if he manages to get up over Cauberg among the first 10-20 riders, I will say it’s almost certain he will try with a solo move on the last 1,7 kilometers. Portuguese Rui Costa is also a rider to look out for this Sunday. Same goes for Michael Albasini and Tour of Britain winner Jonathan Tiernan-Locke.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Matti Breschel & Moreno Moser

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During the Vuelta España I had a daily winner pick duel with Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles. Surprisingly enough it all ended in a draw after 21 stages, so to settle the score I'll go head-2-head against Felix at the World Champions. You have my winner pick and two jokers already, here are his:

Winner pick: Philippe Gilbert

Joker: Simon Gerrans & Rui Costa

Explanation: The Belgian is coming into form after a terrible season. Two Vuelta stage wins has turned things round for Gilbert, who won the Amstel Gold Race in successive years over these roads. He knows what it's like to win on the Cauberg, plus he has the sprint to take it after the flat 1.7km run over the summit. Peter Sagan has been quiet recently, suggesting his best form came back during his hat-trick of wins during the Tour, while Alejandro Valverde will be exhausted from his final-week exertions during the Vuelta. The flat run-in won't help the Spaniard either. That said, if Sagan is in touch with the leaders over the top of the 10th and final ascent of the Cauberg, then he'll be near-impossible to beat. For my joker, I was tempted by Rui Costa, the in-form Portuguese, and also by Thomas Voeckler, who has the whole French squad behind him on what seems to be a tailor-made course. But I'll go for Simon Gerrans instead. The Australian has ordered his season with the Worlds in mind; he's in form after his win in Quebec and he's podiumed in the Amstel Gold before. If anyone can cause an upset, it's Gerrans.

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Favorites for Ronde van Vlaanderen

Finally. I think that’s the most fitting word for a preview of this amazing race. I don’t need to write why Ronde van Vlaanderen is such a fantastic race, reading this blog, you obviously know quite a bit about cycling already.

Instead let’s take a look at the riders who are going to animate the race this Sunday.

Fabian Cancellara
If you want to bet on this race, you better bet on Fabian. For me he is the biggest favorite. He may not always ride very smart tactically, but you simply can’t ignore the fact that he is the strongest rider in the bunch. The race is extra hard this year with difficult laps ending with Paterberg so the chances of an ‘early’ breakaway with ‘secondary riders’ to stay away are very low. I think a small group of maximum 10 riders will get away in the last part of the race and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Cancellara just said good bye to the rest of the favorites like in Strade Bianche and went solo without even attacking. As you can see I feel pretty confident picking Spartacus as winner of Ronde van Vlaanderen 2012.

Sep Vanmarcke
If you watched Dwars door Vlaandere and E3 Harelbeke you saw Sep Vanmarcke being one of, if not the strongest rider in the peloton. Everytime one of the favorites tried to attack, Vanmarcke was the first rider to follow. Vanmarcke has already shown he can stay with the favorites – and beat them – when he outsprinted Tom Boonen and won Omloop and if he shows same strength on Sunday as he has been showing the last couple of weeks he should be a strong candidate for the podium!

Tom Boonen
I said it back in December last year I still stand by those words. Tom Boonen is back! He has the strongest team - without any doubts whatsoever - and he can outsprint any of the other favorites if it should come down to a sprint. So why isn’t he my number one favorite? Because of his (lack of) tactical sense. Boonen often tends to show off too much and waste a lot of energies early in the race or he ends up working too hard in the end. He made that mistake in Omloop and he paid for it. I would be happy to see Tom Boonen win Ronde van Vlaanderen once again, but against Cancellara, who hungers for revenge from last year, I really have my doubts.

Matti Breschel
Another great rider who is back again is Matti Breschel. Being one of the strongest riders in 2010 “dancing, almost whistling up the hills” (words of Gilbert) his 2011-season got ruined by one injury after the other. Matti showed in Volta Algarve that his sprinting legs are back in shape and in Milano – San Remo he was just a few meters short of joining the winning trio on Poggio. In E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem he seems to miss the last few percentages on the hills but still managed to get 11th and 3rd in the final sprint. Matti Breschel knows how important it is for Rabobank finally go get a big win this season and normally he works very well under pressure. I think (and hope) he will able to stay with the best on Sunday and even though he may not win, top5 should be a safe bet.

Björn Leukemans
Last up among my personal favorites and outsiders for the win in Ronde van Vlaanderen is Björn Leukemans. Vacansoleil-DCM has been outstanding this season and if they can take that with them to the cobblestone classics, team leader Björn Leukemans is a man to watch out for. Last year he was great with top10 in all four Sunday-classics and that even despite having a lot of bad luck. Leukemans recently said he is living like a munch the last weeks up to the big races. Sleeping alone, going to bed hungry and not inviting his friends around if they are just remotely close to getting sick. “I don’t have the talent like Cancellara and Boonen so I have to do everything else that I can”, he explained. In E3 Harelbeke he made the front group with Cancellara, Boonen, Pozzato and Vanmarcke and that shows the shape is there. I don’t expect Leukemans to win this race, but like with Matti Breschel, I think he is good pick for a top5 spot.

Favorites for Milano - San Remo

It feels good to be back again, even though I’m just relaxing on the couch recovering without much to do. I have had some time to catch up on the last days though and I feel pretty confident stating the following riders as my favorites for Saturday’s Milano - San Remo.

As always there are two scenarios; mass sprint or break away on Poggio. Therefore I have divided my favorites into two categories. Here they are:

Break away:

Nibali attacking with
2 km to go in 2010.

One of the strongest riders uphill right now is Vincenzo Nibali. Ever since San Luis in Argetina, Nibali have been showing great condition and his overall win in Tirreno-Adriatico proved he is probably the best pick for break away win in San Remo. The last two years Nibali has tried to get away on the descent from Poggio but even though his skills on the downhill sections are amazing he has never been able to stay away. Personally I think that if Nibali tries to attack already on Poggio, stronger and more powerfull than he did last year, and get a gap before the descent he will be close to impossible to catch again. It will require head wind and a sprinter with at least 3 team mates in the peloton to rail him back as I see it.

Cancellara's solo win in 2008.

One of the only riders who would be able to follow Nibali on the descent is Fabian Cancellara. He has been in shape since Tour of Qatar and he only gets better and better now. In Strade Bianche he went solo without even attacking, he simply just set up the pace a bit. I doubt Cancellara will have any difficulties following the strongest on Poggio and even if so, he shouldn’t be too far off when they start the on descent. Cancellara knows what it takes to win Milano - San Remo and after his recent performances he must be named as one of the big favorites.

Mass sprint:

Cavendish' photo-finish win in 2009.

The number one favorite, should the peloton reach the finishing line together, is Mark Cavendish. No doubts about that. In January Cavendish said he felt as good as in 2009 when he won the race and looking at his team this year you’ll find Eisel, Löfkvist and Hagen to support Cavendish just like they did in 2009. Milano - San Remo is a huge goal for Mark Cavendish this year. According to his team mates all he talks about is winning this race in the rainbow colors and if he manage to stay in front on Poggio I’m pretty sure he will repeat his win from 2009 – without letting get as close as back then.

Freire made it look easy with his third
Milano-San Remo victory in 2010.

There is one sprinter you just can’t count out  no matter what. Oscar Freire! The former multiple World Champion has won Milano – San Remo not just once or twice, but three times already. He surprised a lot of people when he did it in 2010 and this year he seems to be even stronger. Freire has confirmed that the 2012-season will be the last in his glorious career and what better way of saying good bye that start out winning one of the biggest races of them all. Freire showed in Tour Down Under and Vuelta Andalucía that he still knows how to win mass sprints and he even came very close to beating Mark Cavendish in Tirreno-Adriatico. Freire is strong on the hills and he is experienced enough to know where to be when it counts. If Oscar Freire is in first group when the peloton gets to San Remo I would be very surprised not to see him in the top3 at least.

Jokers:
No fun without a couple of jokers, so here we go. First up is Marco Marcato. A lot of people may have forgotten this, but Marcato actually had a real chance of winning Milano - San Remo last year. Being the only other fast guy in the front group after Poggio, Marcato crashed on the descent and never managed to get back to the front. This year Marco Marcato seems to be stronger than ever before and after having worked hard on his sprint in the winter season, I think Marcato could be right up there among the best riders on Saturday.

Being as close as only Zabel has been to winning Milano - San Remo, Heinrich Haussler was denied the win by Mark Cavendish in 2009. Ever since Haussler has only been “close” to winning big races. Nevertheless he is always in the mix when the winner has to be found. To me it seems like Haussler is in good enough shape right now to pull off a top performance again this time and if it comes down to a sprint, he is definitely a rider to watch.

Other names for a mass sprint is Andre Greipel and Tom Boonen while Alessandro Ballan and Matti Breschel are good picks in a break away group.

Update: A lot of people is already asking why Peter Sagan isn't on the list. Well, of course Sagan has a real chance of winning Milano-San Remo but so many things need to go his way. If it comes down to a sprint, Sagan most likely needs to beat Cavendish, Greipel, Freire etc - can he do that? If not, he has to get away on Poggio and as I said, I think that is Nibali's only chance. Of course if something happens to Nibali, Sagan can play his cards on Poggio, but a lot of things really need to Sagan's way in order to win this race.

Favorites for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad & Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

It’s time for the Belgian cobblestones and I for one have been looking forward to this for quite some time now! Without much time on my hands I’ll go straight to it. Here are my favorites for the two races this weekend.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

Favorite number 1 is without any doubt Tom Boonen. This is one of the few races Tornado Tom hasn’t won yet and with the condition he has been showing so far this year, he is the man to beat. On top of that he even has one of the strongest teams to back him up. Riders like Chavanel, Ciolek, Steegmans are all there to work for Boonen and except for BMC I can’t see any teams with a line up as strong as Quickstep’s for this race.

It would be easy to say Juan Antonio Flecha, but to spice it up a bit I’ll go with Greg Van Avemaet. It’s true that both Philippe Gilbert and Thor Hushovd are there as well, but it’s not time for those two yet. Gilbert has RvV and the Ardennes on his mind while Hushovd has his mind fixed on Paris-Roubaix. This time Greg Van Avermaet has a rare chance to prove himself and with the shape he has proved to be in already, he is my best pick for a winner if not Tom Boonen takes it.

To stay with the outsiders, I’ll pick Marco Marcato. The Italian has recently made the cut for the Italian Olympic pre-selection and it seems like Marcato has started this season like he ended the last one – with style! Marcato has been working hard on his sprint during the winter and even though Vacansoleil also have Devolder on Leukemans on the roster for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, I think Marcato will be their designated leader. Look out for this in-shape Italian on Saturday!

Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

Like last year I think it will end up in mass sprint this time as well and who is the best sprinter of 2012 so far? Andre Greipel! The Gorilla has been outstanding and been climbing very well too. If he is ready after Tour of Oman he will be the number 1 favorite, and that’s even with Mark Cavendish on the starting line as well – new world…

It’s too easy to say Mark Cavendish now and honestly I don’t know if he’s up for it already. I'll go with another outsider in Yauheni Hutarovich. The Belarus took second place last year and seems to be in good condition already as well this year. He has been just short of stage wins in both Tour Down Under and Tour Méditerranéen and normally he is good in the Belgian races. Have you practiced your spelling? If not, do it now, cause the name Yauheni Hutarovich is likely to be mentioned in the top3 Sunday…

There are a lot of riders who can surprise this weekend and being Danish and all I sure hope Matti Breschel is one of them. Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is a very important race for Rabobank and it would be great to see Matti back in the mix with the best riders again. Also look out for Baden Cooke. The Australian has been great all season so far, and if he gets a chance it could take top3 in any of the two races.

Danish gold!

It’s kind of amazing I must say… Last Thursday both Danish hopes for the Elite Road Race (Matti Breschel & Alex Rasmussen) were out and the weather forecast said “rain, rain rain”. Now it’s Thuesday and we two Danish medals and absolutely no sign of the rain!

The Danish gold went to young Mads Wurtz Schmidt who won the Men Junior’s time trial and really seemed surprised at the press conference. “Well, to be honest this is a huge surprise for me”, he said. “My goal this morning was top10 so ending up with the rainbow jersey is just simply amazing”.

In a little less than an hour the Elite Women start their time trial and this could very well be the first time during this World Champions that we don’t get an Australian rider on the podium. The big favorites are Judith Arndt, Emma Pooley, Amber Neben, Marianne Vos and Danish Linda Villumsen (who know rides for New Zealand) so it really requires some extra from Taryn Heather if she wants to continue to Aussie dominance…

Come back later for more info!