World Championship - Time Trial Preview & Favorites

Tony Martin got the best possible start to this year’s World Championship when he and Omega Pharma Quickstep won the opening team time trial last Sunday. Now it’s time for the individual time trial and just like the last two years, the strong German is the top favorite.

Except for a slightly different finish, the course is the same as for the team time trial. It’s a power course for the big engines and basically it’s all about speed. The small hill in the beginning won’t matter much as the following 50 km are flat. Only the final few kilometers inside of Florence are technical but the riders doing the team time trial already know how to take the corners without losing time.

Half a year ago, I had no doubts Tony Martin would win this race and take his third consecutive World Champion title. However, I must admit Bradley Wiggins has been extremely strong recently. Both Martin and Wiggins are best on a course like this one and I think it will be a close fight. Still, I’ll stick with Tony Martin as my number one favorite. He’s been training on the course, he did the team time trial and he knows how to take the tricky corners in Florence. According to the German, he’s in better shape than last year and he feels more prepared. He got a massive motivation boost when OPQS won the team time trial and he’s now very confident.

While Tony Martin has had the same approach towards the time trials within the last handful of years, Bradley Wiggins' focus has changed completely. He went from being a time trial specialist to winning the Tour de France. In this process, Wiggins lost a lot of weight and he had to comprise his time trial training. After his failed attempt to win the Giro d’Italia this year, Wiggins now seems to have given up on winning another Grand Tour. He’s now 7-8 kg heavier than when he won the Tour and since June, he’s only been focusing on his time trial. In his comeback race after the Giro, Bradley Wiggins won the 37 km time trial in Tour of Poland when he distanced Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney with a minute.  Last week he won the short time trial in Tour of Britain without any problems and according to Wiggins, he too feels a lot better than last year. In 2012, Wiggins won the Olympic time trial just 10 days after winning the Tour de France. This time the World Champion time trial comes just three days after Tour of Britain. It will be very interesting to see if it’s enough time for Wiggins to switch focus and beat Tony Martin. Personally, I doubt it.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara will take the bronze medal this Wednesday. The way I see it, Cancellara is a strong candidate but riders like Taylor Phinney and Adrian Malori have a solid chance of making podium as well. As stated in my preview for the team time trial, Fabian Cancellara’s main focus in on the road race on Sunday. No other top favorites are doing all three races and if Cancellara wants to win on Sunday, it may not be the best idea to test his limits on a course like this and take risks in the tricky corners. Cancellara has worked hard to get better on the climbs, we saw that in Vuelta España, and it means he has lost some speed on the long flat parts. He’s still among the very best in the world but against Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, I honestly can’t see him win.

Last year Taylor Phinney did the time trial of his life when he finished second to Tony Martin. Phinney was only six seconds from beating Tony Martin and becoming World Champion and now he’s out for revenge. He lives near the course and knows it like the back of his hand. Every time Phinney is out training on his time trial bike, he’s riding on part of the course and I doubt any of the riders starting tomorrow knows it better than he does. BMC had big ambitions for the team time trial but failed to live up their own expectations. They finished fourth and Taylor Phinney didn’t hide his disappointment. Wednesday the young American has another chance to show his potential and personally, I have Phinney down for a spot on the final podium.

The Italians haven’t had much to cheer for in the time trials for a while. Marco Pinotti was on his way to medal last year but then crashed in the final. Right now Adriano Malori is the Italians best hope and on a good day, he could surprise and make podium. Malori is getting better and better every year and this season, he has been very close to Tony Martin a couple of times. In Tirreno-Adriatico, Malori finished second in the final time trial, just six seconds after Martin. In time trial in Tour de Romandie, Malori finished second again this time 16 seconds after Tony Martin. It’s worth noticing that in this time trial Malori put in 18 seconds on the overall winner Chris Froome. The time trial in Florence is obviously a big goal for Adriano Malori and he’s been working hard in order to deliver a top performance this Wednesday. He knows the competition is fierce but if some of the other candidates strike out, Malori will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

The five mentioned riders are also the five riders starting last. For the complete starting order click here.

Among the super jokers for a medal we'll find riders like the Vacansoleil-DCM duo Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra. In the Tour de France this year, De Gendt started right before Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to not to change that fact. Fighting to keep Tony Martin behind him, Thomas De Gendt put in such a strong performance that he finished third on the stage. This time, his teammate Lieuwe Westra is starting right after De Gendt. Westra isn't on the same level as Tony Martin, but I still expect him to do Top10 this Wednesday. In fact, Lieuwe Westra says that being the first to catch Thomas De Gendt in a time trial is an extra motivation for him. It will be interesting to see how the two - soon to be - former teammates will perform against each other.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 11 (ITT) Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a time trial. This has already been a very tough race and it will be interesting to see how the legs of the GC riders will respond after a day off the bike. We have often seen riders having an off-day after a rest day and alone against the clock, you can really lose some time if you’re not ready.

This year’s Vuelta is one for the climbers and that shows on the time trial too. The 38.8 km around Tarazona include a long category 3 climb. The road book has Alto del Moncayo to be 9 km long but actually, it’s already been uphill for a while before the official start of the climb. Compared to the last time trial in the Tour de France this year, this isn’t as tough. It’s definitely a hard course but with an average gradient of just 4.1 % and no steep parts, Alto del Moncayo won’t kill the hopes of the time trial experts.

In fact, the second part of the route favors the big engines like Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara. Most of the final 20 km are downhill and we can expect a fast finish with a tailwind on this second part.

Favorites

Not surprisingly, the bookmakers' favorite is Tony Martin. He’s the double World Champion and he’s simply in a league of his own against the clock these years. The last time trial of the Tour had two hard climbs on the menu and naturally, a big rider like Martin didn’t stand a chance against Froome and Contador. The climb on this time trial isn’t as hard as those in the Tour and with a long and fast descent, it will be extremely difficult to beat the German Panzerwagen.

Fabian Cancellara is probably the only rider able to take this win away from Tony Martin. However, Cancellara hasn't been the same time machine we used see in recent years. This is probably also why he’s now focusing on the road race instead of the time trial for the World Championships in Florence later this month. Cancellara looks very lean right now and so far, he has been been very good on the climbs in this Vuelta. Because of this, some may say the climb favors him over Tony Martin but I think Cancellara’s hard work in front of the peloton will show in time trial. Tony Martin has been able to “take it easy” and save himself for this stage and that will be important. Of course, Cancellara is still a world-class time trialist and it will be a close fight for the stage win Tarazona!

Outsiders

Looking at the start list, there are many strong riders able to make podium in this time trial. Specialists like Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, Kristof Vandewalle and Lieuwe Westra all have what it takes to put in a strong performance. The climb may be too much for Vandewalle but I’m sure he’s eager to show off his Belgian national jersey. Pinotti did very well in the final time trial of Tour of Poland a month ago and on a good day, he should be up there fighting for top3. Westra has been very anonymous so far in the Vuelta. However, the team explains that Westra feels better and better every day and they now hope for a strong time trial from the Dutch national champion. For other good outsiders look to Luis León Sanchez, Jan Barta, Ben Hermans, Dario Cataldo and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Astana has a lot of riders able to do well in this discipline. Jakob Fuglsang, Janez Brajkovic, Tanel Kangert and Andriy Grivko can, in theory, all do top10 but I doubt Astana will let them go full speed. There is still a long way to Madrid and Vincenzo Nibali needs his strong domestiques to be ready when it counts. Kangert sits 14^th in the overall classification before this time trial and the team may give him the green light to try his luck. He did very well in the first time trial in the Giro this year and on a good day, he may re-enter Top10 overall Wednesday afternoon.

Overall Classification

Looking at the fight for the Red Jersey, I doubt Chris Horner will lead Vuelta España after this time trial. He’s more skinny than I’ve ever seen him and even though he has done good time trials in the past, I can’t see him keep the jersey. On the final, short (9.2 km) time trial in Tirreno-Adriatico, Horner almost lost 20 seconds to Nibali. This time trial is four times as long and despite the climb, Nibali will be able to take a lot of time on the American veteran. Last year, Horner finished 13^th overall in the Tour de France but even though he was in great shape, he didn’t do well in the time trials. The first time trial in the Tour that year was about the same length as this one and back then, Horner lost more than three minutes to Nibali. The time differences won’t be as big this time but surely Vincenzo Nibali is able to take back the 43 seconds he’s after Honer in the GC. Actually, we may even see Nibali make podium in this time trial.

Astana’s big plan for this Vuelta was for Nibali to start out the race on 75 % and by the first rest day reach 100 %. So far, everything has gone according to plan and it will be a big surprise not to see Nibali in the Red Jersey at the beginning of Thursday’s stage 12.

I also expect Nicolas Roche to do well. Bjarne Riis always demands his riders to focus on the time trials and Roche has made significant improvements this year. He finished 24^th in the final time trial in Tour de Suisse and no, that wasn’t because of the hard climb. Nicolas Roche actually had 14^th best time after the flat part. In front of riders like Peraud, Millar, Monfort, Klöden etc. In the Tour the improvements continued as Roche finished  28^th in the first time trial. The Irishman has lost 2.5 kg since the Tour and that really shows on the climbs. It will be interesting to see how weight loss will affect his time trial performance this Wednesday. He won’t beat Nibali but Roche should be able to keep the other GC riders behind him.

This is also a good course for Alejandro Valverde. He knows how to keep his pace on the demanding parts and Valverde is an excellent descender. The Movistar captain did very well in the final time trial of the Tour and even though this one isn’t as tough, he should be able to clock in a great time. Also, look out for his teammate Beñat Intxausti. The Basque rider is good against the clock and his time checks will be vital for Valverde. In addition to that, Intxausti starts just in front of Tony Martin. In the first time trial of the Tour, Thomas De Gendt started in front of Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to keep his record. At the end of the day, Thomas De Gendt finished 3rd on the stage.

Starting Order

Lieuwe Westre starts as number 18 at 13:31 and his time will most like stand for a while. Marco Pinotti starts at 14:15 and just three minutes later, it’s Tony Martin’s turn to take the starting ramp. Fabian Cancellara starts at 14:54 and as the last rider, Chris Horner roles out on the course at 16:50 local time. You can see the complete starting order HERE.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this time trial, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 17 ITT Preview & Favorites

Everything went as expected on stage 16. A breakaway made it all the way and the GC riders gave us a good show on the final climb and descent. Despite the late attacks, the overall contenders didn’t burn too much energy and they will now have to use everything they have got left during one of the hardest time trials in recent Tour de France history.

The Route

This is another short time trial of only 32 km but that doesn’t make it easy, not at all! The riders face Côte de Puy-Sanières right from the beginning. This category 2 climb is 6.4 km long and has an average gradient of 6 %. It starts out with 5 % in the beginning and has parts of 9 % in the middle. The first time check is at the top of the climb and the last kilometers of 7 % will make it difficult to keep a steady rhythm. The descent is very technical and riders with good bike handling skills can really take back some time on his part.  Coming down from Côte de Puy-Sanières, the riders take on the next climb right away. The 6.9 km towards the top of Côte de Réallon have an average gradient of 6.3 % and it’s a lot easier to find into a good rhythm here. From the top of Côte de Réallon there are 12 km to go.

The Finish

The descent from Côte de Réallon is not as technical as the one from Côte de Puy-Sanières but after reaching the top and the second time check it actually takes a couple of kilometers before the riders starts on the downhill part. The final descent towards the line is very fast the riders should be able to reach a speed of about 80 km/h. The last kilometer is flat and it will be interesting to see if some of the heavier riders have been able to take back time on after the two climbs.

The Favorite

There is no “s” on Favorite this time since there is just one rider to beat if you want to win this stage. Only a strong headwind in the final kilometers kept Chris Froome from beating Tony Martin in the flat time trial and with two climbs on the profile, nobody will get even close to Froome. He’s the best rider uphill right now and even though some say he has difficulties on the descent, it’s not that bad. The only reason why he got off the bike on stage 16 was that Alberto Contador crashed in front of him. Actually, Froome did very well on the descent and he shouldn’t have bigger problems than other riders on this stage. Chris Froome knows he will be under attack in the Alps and he needs to distance himself from his rivals as much as possible before that. I think Froome will win this stage with at least one minute down to number two, probably even two minutes. The way I see it, it’s only the weather that can stop Chris Froome from destroying the peloton on this stage. As of Tuesday evening, there is 40 % chance of rain when Chris Froome takes the start and should it rain; the descents will be very difficult. In that case, look to riders down the GC starting early like national champions Lieuwe Westra and Jonathan Castroviejo.

The Jokers

After his outstanding time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco, Nairo Quintana looks like an interesting rider for this stage. He’s fighting with Michal Kwiatkowski for the white jersey and he will need a very a good day in order to beat the Pole against the clock. Both are among the outsiders for a Top3 place and so is Bauke Mollema. The Flying Dutchman has never been better and he’s done very well in the time trials the last couple of years. He finished 11^th in the flat time trial to Mont Saint Michel and in Tour de Suisse he took 3^rd place in the final uphill time trial and made the overall podium. Mollema wasn’t great on Mont Ventoux and if he wants to keep his podium place, he needs another strong performance against the clock before the Alps.

Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger will most likely fight for a top3 place on this stage as well but I doubt the World Champion, Tony Martin will be near the top. He may do Top5 on a good day but I would be very surprised to see him near Chris Froome this time.

Favorite: Chris Froome

Jokers: Bauke Mollema / Jonathan Castroviejo

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv and click here to see the starting order.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 17:

Tour de France: Stage 11 ITT Preview & Favorites

After a rest day and a stage for the sprinters, it’s now time to shake up the general classification again. The specialists have been trying to arrive as fresh as possible for this time trial while the GC riders will be more tired after the Pyrenees and that should show against the clock.

The Route

Starting out in Avranches the riders head south towards the first time check in Ducey after 9.5 km. It’s not really flat but it’s not very difficult either with many descents. This first part takes place with a strong tail wind and sets for a very fast start. After the checkpoint, the route turns west and this is where the road starts to kick up a little. Not much, but enough to require a change or rhythm.

Towards the second time check, we can expect a strong crosswind and without any kind of shelter from the wind, the pure climbers and other riders not strong against the clock, will be in big troubles.

The Finish

From the checkpoint in Courtils, there are 11 km to the finishing line. With 3 km to go the riders turn right - into the head wind - and continue straight out towards Mont-Saint-Michel. There is a 180° turn with about 500 meters to go before crossing the finishing line. The riders won’t enjoy this stage but for the TV-viewers if will be yet another spectacular day in the Tour.

The Favorites

Another spectacular place for a Tour de France stage to finish.

Without Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins in the race, there is really only one rider fitting the “Favorite” category. Tony Martin had a horrible crash on the first stage of the Tour but it doesn’t seem to trouble him too much anymore. At least not his performances on the bike. He did great in the team time trial with big pulls in the end (and that was only 3 days after his crash) and he seems very confident heading into this time trial. 

According to Tony Martin himself “anything but a stage win will be a huge disappointment”, so there you have it, Tony is the favorite.

Chris Froome will be interesting to follow as well. Before the Olympic Time Trial last year, he told me the flat route didn’t really suit him, but he still ended up taking the Bronze medal. Froome and Team Sky have had a couple of very tough stages in the Pyrenees and I doubt Froome will be able to challenge Tony Martin. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Froome makes Top3 again.

The Jokers

My outsider for this stage is the oldest Tour de France debutant in recent history of the race. Svein Tuft is a real powerhouse and like Tony Martin, he was the reason why his team did so well on Stage 4. GreenEdge won with less than second and that’s most likely thanks to this strong Canadian. Tuft has been saving energy - as much as you can in your debut Tour hitting the Pyrenees - the last days and he’s now hoping for another big result. Svein Tuft started out the season in a fantastic way when he won the time trial in Tour San Luis. Before Tour de France started, Tuft won the opening prologue in Tour de Slovenia and after the team time trial success, I think Tuft will do great today.

Another great candidate for a good result is Sylvain Chavanel. The French Champion will be eager to show off his jersey in the time trial and this is a perfect distance for Chavanel. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski could very well end up in the top end of the table and I wouldn’t be surprised if Omega Pharma Quickstep put at least three riders in Top10.

Click here for the starting order. First rider is Astana's Dmitriy Muravyev who starts at 10:28 CET. My joker Svein Tuft starts as number two at 10:30 and his time should be be a reference time for the rest of the riders. Tony Martin starts at 12:36 while Chris Froome is last rider on the ramp starting at 16:54.

Favorite: Tony Martin

Joker: Svein Tuft

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 11:

Giro Rosa: Stage 8 (ITT) Results & Comments

The final podium of Giro Rosa. 1. Mara Abbott 2. Tatiana Guderzo 3. Claudis Hausler. Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Eleonora Van Dijk won the last stage of this year’s Giro Rosa, a 16.7 km long time trial. Evelyn Stevens took second place after her teammate from Specialized Lululemon while Shara Gillow finished third.

As expected, the 16.7 km didn’t change much in the overall classification. Mara Abbott kept her Pink Jersey and was celebrated as the final winner after two great performances in the mountains. Especially her first stage win was spectacular when she distanced Marianne Vos with more than five minutes.

Next year’s Giro Rosa will be the 25^th edition and Patron Rivolta promise it will be a wonderful race. We hope for a great year for women’s cycling and are already looking forward to next year’s Giro.

Stage 8 results

1. Van Dijk Eleonora (Specialized Lululemon) 

2. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 35"

3. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 52"

4. Ferrand Prevot Pauline (Rabo Woman Cycling Team) a 57"

5. Villumsen Linda Melanie (Wiggle Honda) a 1'02"

6. Wiles Tayler (Specialized Lululemon) a 1'10"

7. Gunnewijk Loes (Orica Ais) a 1'11"

8. Van den Breggen Anna (Nazionale Olanda) a 1'13"

9. Burchenkova Alexandra (Rusvelo) a 1'15"

10. Small Carmen (Specialized Lululemon) a 1'17"

Final GC

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa) in 20h30'15"

2. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'33"

3. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 2'18"

4. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 3'29"

5. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 3'39"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Abbott Mara (USA)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Abbott Mara (Usa)

Youth: Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa 

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By Alberto Celani

Tour de France 2013: Preview & Favorites

The Tour de France route 2013 - click for larger view.

Many people criticized last year’s Tour de France of being ’too boring’. Looking at start list, I doubt that will be the case this year.

It’s true that Team Sky once again have the big favorite but the compared to last year, there are a lot more riders able to fight for the final podium.

This year’s race includes 21 stages. I have divided them into the following categories:

6 x “100 % sprint”.

2-3 x “sprint in a reduced peloton”.

3 x time trials; 2 ITT and 1 TTT.

4 x mountain top finish

2 x mountain downhill finish

3-4 x hilly/breakaway

Both of the individual time trials are short this year (33 km & 32 km) and with an extremely hard last week (one hilly ITT and three mountain stages in the Alps), it’s safe to say that the pure climbers have a good chance of succeeding this year. I have a good feeling about the first five riders in the general classification. Still, I only see two riders with a solid chance of winning Tour de France overall. My view on the riders’ chances can be categorized like this (the order is irrelevant):

Winner:	Podium:
Chris Froome	Richie Porte
Alberto Contador	Alejandro Valverde
	Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
Top5:	Top10:
Cadel Evans	Thibaut Pinot
Tejay van Garderen	Jakob Fuglsang
Jurgen Van den Broeck	Bauke Mollema
Ryder Hesjedal	Daniel Navarro
Nairo Quintana	Jean-Christophe Peraud
	Haimar Zubeldia
Top20:	Rein Taaramae
Rui Costa	Pierre Rolland
Damiano Cunego	Dan Martin
Andy Schleck
Wout Poels
Andrey Amador
Roman Kreuziger
Janez Brajkovic
Robert Gesink
Daniel Moreno
Arnold Jeannesson
Laurens Ten Dam
Igor Antón
Thomas De Gendt
Michal Kwiatkowski
Mikel Nieve Andrew Talansky

Chris Froome has been the best stage race rider this year and anything but a top performance from him in the Tour will be a big surprise. He is one of the best time trialists in the race and despite the short distances; he will be able to take a lot of times on this rivals against the clock. Had it been Wiggins, I would expect the climbers to take back the time in the mountains but Chris Froome will be very difficult to drop uphill. He was the strongest rider in the mountains in the last year’s Tour de France and he only seems to be stronger this year. Furthermore, he has Richie Porte to help him. 

Porte has taken a big step up the ladder this season with his overall win in Paris-Nice and his second place (behind Froome) in Dauphiné. Porte’s next big individual target is the Giro d’Italia 2014 but that doesn’t stop him from talking about a podium spot in this year’s Tour. The time trials are definitely in Porte’s favor but I don’t think Team Sky can make a double (1^st & 2^nd) like last year. Still, third place overall doesn’t seem unlikely. It all depends on how strong Froome is in the last week. If he gets isolated early, naturally he’ll have to use Porte early as well. If not, Team Sky probably end with two riders on the podium again this year.

Many are questioning Alberto Contador’s chances. This year he hasn’t been as strong as earlier but what people tend to forget is that this has all been part of a bigger plan. Read more about that here and see what his teammate Jesus Hernandez says about Contador's chances. It's also important to remember that Contador's results haven't been bad at all. He was 4^th overall in San Luis, 2^nd overall in Oman, 3^rd overall in Tirreno, 5^th overall Pais Vasco and 10^th overall in Dauphiné. Contador said he was only on 75 % in Dauphiné and I think he would have won the final stage had he not waited for Michael Rogers. Many would probably have a different view on Contador’s chances had he won that last stage and I guess that’s why so many don’t think he stands a chance against Chris Froome. Personally, I think it will be a close fight between Froome and Contador but it all depends on how much time Contador loses to Froome in the time trials.

As my list reveals I expect Valverde & Purito to be fighting for a spot on the final podium. This year’s route is as perfect as it gets for Purito. The time trials are short and the final one is very hilly. He will probably lose about four minutes to Froome against the clock but he has a chance of taking some of it back in the mountains and in the stages ending downhill. Few - if any - in the professional peloton can match Purito’s kick uphill and I won’t be surprised if he takes 10-15 seconds on Froome (thanks to late attacks close to the line) in a couple of the uphill finishes. Purito is also very good on the descents and knowing he needs to take back time, he should embrace every opportunity he gets. The most important thing for Purito this year is to get the overall place “he deserves”. Most likely he feels that he should have won both the Giro and the Vuelta last year and therefore he now hopes to end where he deserves. 2^nd or 8^th is not ‘that’ important it seems - as long as it matches his performance.

Alejandro Valverde has one of the strongest teams in the race to support him this year but that doesn’t help him much in the time trials. I think Movistar will be very close to Team Sky in the team time trial but in the two individual ones, Valverde will lose time. Therefore, he too needs to attack. His big goal is a spot on the podium in Paris and with super domestiques like Quintana and Rui Costa (and Amador) he can’t complain about the support. I doubt Valverde can drop Contador, Froome and Purito uphill but he will be able to drop many of the other contenders with help from his team and especially Nairo Quintana.

Stage 15, 18, 19 & 20.
Click for larger view.

The Colombian super climber could very well aim at Top5 himself this year but he knows the time is not right. He is still young and this year everything is build up around Valverde. Quintana has been preparing himself for the Tour home in Colombia for the last two months. Contrary to many of the Tour riders, he will arrive to Corsica without any recent race competition in his legs and I won’t be surprised if he loses time in the first week. That being said, don’t be surprised either if Quintana is fighting with Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen for the white jersey in the last week. The final week is so extremely hard this year and anything can happen. A couple of lost minutes from the first week is nothing compared to final days in the Alps.

Before the Giro d’Italia started this year, I doubted Cadel Evans chances of success, what a mistake! The Australian veteran had been talking about peaking in the Tour the whole season and therefore I couldn’t see him dig deep in the Giro. Still, he managed to finish third overall. 

The Giro was very hard this year though, despite the cancelled climbs, and once again I now doubt Evans’ chances. Maybe it’s a mistake but is it really possible - in modern cycling - to do Top3 in the Giro and Top3 in the Tour the same year? Especially with two such hard routes? Time will tell. 

BMC also have Tejay van Garderen to play but according to the American, he’s only here to help his captain. This is most likely Cadel Evans' last chance to lead a team in the Tour - aiming at the GC - and I think the team really want to back him up. Van Garderen still has about 10 years ahead of him on top level and sacrificing one year - and still doing well in the GC - shouldn't really be a big issue for him. 

There are many [equally] strong riders fighting for the Top10 places this year and instead of going through all of them (see my list above for that matter), I’ll leave you with a couple of jokers. First one is Daniel Navarro. After being one of Contador’s faithful helpers for many years, Navarro now has a chance to show his own potential. Saxo-Tinkoff didn’t want to keep Navarro at his current salary and when Cofidis were ready to make him captain, the choice wasn’t really that tough for the Spanish climber. So far it’s been a great match. Daniel Navarro finished 12^th overall in Paris-Nice, 16^th overall in Catalunya and latest 5^th overall in Dauphiné where he were among the strongest uphill.  Originally the plan for the Tour was to aim at a stage win but with the impressive performances in Dauphiné, Cofidis & Navarro now aim at the overall classification instead. The French team also have Rein Taaramae for the GC and together with Jerome Coppel and Christophe Le Mevel they have a very strong team to support Navarro. In fact, Cofidis are my outsider for the Team Classification this year.

I also expect a strong performance from Andrey Amador. He’s probably only ranked fourth in the Movistar team for this Tour de France but I think we will see a lot of him, especially in the third week. Amador is an excellent climber and like [teammate] Quintana, he’s been preparing himself at home in the mountains. The Irazú volcano [3500 meters above sea level] in Costa Rica is where Amador has been training and he showed in Tour de Suisse that he’s ready with a strong performance in the final time trial. In the Tour de France Andrey Amador hopes to hit a morning breakaway and take a stage win like he did in the Giro d’Italia last year. Naturally, helping Valverde is the number one priority but it can also be a tactical advantage for Movistar to have Amador in a breakaway. Contrary to many other climbers Amador is also very good against the clock which will help Movistar in the team time trial. I expect them to make Top3 that day.

Before I end this Preview, let's take a look at the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan was my big favorite last year and he turned out to be even stronger than expected. This year, he’s once again the favorite but if Mark Cavendish is back on his top level, it will be a close fight. I see at least six “sure” sprint stages and even though Sagan is fast, he’s not as fast as Cavendish, Greipel & Kittel. There are more points up for grab in the flat stages. That means if Cavendish wins four of five stages without Sagan making Top3, he will get a good advantage. Sagan will be in the mix some days where Cavendish can’t keep up though. Still, I think it will be very close this year. Also, both Sagan and Cavendish have high hopes of wearing the Yellow Jersey early in the race this year. Therefore, what will end as a fight for green most likely will start out as a fight for yellow!

Many people ask me about my picks for the four jerseys. I think both the Polka Dot Jersey and the White Jersey are very tough to call this year but if I had to, these would be my picks:

Yellow: Chris Froome
Green: Peter Sagan
Polka Dot: Damiano Cunego / or an Euskaltel rider
White: Nairo Quintana
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Team GC: Movistar

Again this year, there will be daily Stage Previews during the Tour. I know many of you would like them online early but I simply don't have time to publish them before 21:00 - 22:00 CET. 

The stages of this year's Tour de France are set to finish around 17:00 / 17:30 CET. If you find yourself without a TV, go to steephill.tv for live streams.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

After eight tough stages, it’s now time to settle the overall classification. Tour de Suisse often ends with a time trial but never one like this.

Despite the distance of just 26.8 km, the riders are in for a day full of pain. The profile is extremely brutal with a final section of 10.3 km uphill with an average gradient of 9 %. The first 16.5 km are flat so we can expect the riders to start out on a time trial bike and then change to a road bike before the climb starts.

The first time check comes at the end of the flat part. This means that the fastest riders at this point not necessarily will be the fastest in the end.  Starting on the climb, the first 5.4 km have an average of 8.5 % before reaching the second time check. From here, there are 4.9 km to the finishing line and the average gradient of 9.5 % will make for a very hard finish.

Tour of California had a similar time trial this year ending with a steep climb. Many riders decided to change bike at the beginning of the climb but not Tejay van Garderen who won the stage. In California the climb was only 2.6 km though, so we should expect even van Garderen to make a bike change this time.

The young American is also the big favorite for this stage. He decided to take his own change on Stage 7 and not wait for Mathias Frank. Overall, Tejay van Garderen is now 1:17 min after his teammate in yellow and he still has a change of winning Tour de Suisse or at least make podium. It won’t be easy to take a minute on Rui Costa but if anyone in this race can do it, it’s Tejay Van Garderen.

The final 3 km of the stage. Very steep. 

Fabian Cancellara will be eager to take revenge from the opening time trial. The change of wind most likely cost him the stage win but I doubt he will be among the best this time. Cancellara will probably set best time at the first check point but 10.3 km with 9 % is not his terrain. Not even against the clock.

Instead, we should look to riders like Simon Spilak, Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jean-Christophe Peraud. Brajkovic has been getting better and better during the race and he seems to be ready for the Tour soon. The Slovenian rider has always been good against the clock and I think he will test himself and do very well in this time trial. Jean-Christophe Peraud is Ag2r’s designated Tour de France captain and I also see him getting stronger every day. In Paris-Nice earlier this year, Peraud distanced Tejay van Garderen with 20 seconds on the final uphill time trial. The American is clearly stronger right now but it shows that Peraud can be among the bests against the clock.

Another strong candidate for the win is Cameron Meyer. He won the opening time trial but many will say it was because the wind changed. Meyer is not a pure climber but he’s been very solid in the mountains and sits 8^th overall before the stage. I think the Australian will be eager to show that he can also win without a change of weather and I expect him to make podium on the stage. Not in the overall classification though.

My joker is Bauke Mollema. Many don’t see Mollema as strong time trialist but he’s actually not bad at all. The course favors him with the long and steep climb and if he can minimize his time loss on the flat part, he should be able to fight for the overall win. It won’t be easy to beat Rui Costa with 34 seconds but don’t forget Mollema’s time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco last year. On a hilly and very difficult course, Mollema took second place after Samuel Sanchez, beating World Champion Tony Martin in the process. I also expect Thibaut Pinot to do well. He will lose time ont the flat part but like Mollema, it shouldn't be much more than he can take back on the climb. 

Rui Costa is right now the big favorite to win Tour de Suisse for the second year in a row. It’s more or less his race to lose and it will be interesting to see how the Portuguese copes with that pressure. Few - except for the Swiss fans - expect Mathias Frank to keep Rui Costa behind him and I think that plays in Frank’s favor. Despite starting the stage in yellow, he’s still the underdog. It’s difficult to predict the outcome of a time trial like this one but I think it will end with Rui Costa winning overall. BMC should be able to put at least one rider on the final podium but who will it be?

Favorite: Tejay van Garderen

Jokers: Bauke Mollema & Jean-Christophe Peraud

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 1 Preview & Favorites

The last four years this race has started out with a short time trial and this year is no difference. The venue has changed from Lugano to Quinto but the distance is more or less the same. This 8.1 km time trial isn’t as hilly as the usually one in Lugano and this will favor the specialists.

The first 6 km are flat with only a few corners but the last 2 km include 300 meters of 7% before the descent and the last flat km towards the line.

It’s a good course for Fabian Cancellara but his shape is uncertain at the moment. He won’t be doing the Tour de France this year and therefore he doesn’t need to be in tip-top condition right now. Still, this is his home race and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to take the first yellow jersey in Quinto. Last year Peter Sagan beat Cancellara in the opening prologue and naturally, the Slovakian wonderboy must be named among the contenders for the stage win.

Sagan was great in Tour of California last month where he won two stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins three or four stages in Tour de Suisse again this year. Last year’s prologue favored him with the climb in the middle and even though it's hard to bet against him, I don’t think he will win this stage. Instead look to teammate Moreno Moser. The young Italian was third last year and has high hopes for this stage. Moser will be working hard for Sagan in the coming stages. A win in the opening stage will definitely be good for his moral.

Another strong contender for the win is Alex Rasmussen. The strong Dane won Stage 1 of Bayern-Rundfahrt a couple of weeks ago and seems to be back in good shape after his suspension. This kind of time trials are perfect for Rasmussen and on a good day, he’s fighting for the stage win.

If you are looking for an outsider try Simon Geschke or Cameron Meyer. Geschke ended 5^th overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt after a strong performance in the long time trial and actually a short one should suit the German even better. Cameron Meyer is one of my jokers for the overall classification and he’s always good against the clock. I think this time trial suits him very well and starting early his time will probably stand as one of the best for a very long time.

You can see the starting order for the time trial here.

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 4 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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A flat time trial might not make for good TV viewing but it’s Act 1 in the duel between Alberto Contador and Chris Froome and the first time we get to see the relative form of all the other candidates to win this race and the Tour de France.

Stage 3 Wrap: I’d picked Edvald Boasson Hagen for Stage 1 but he wasn’t in the mix nor yesterday so his return was a surprise. The fast finish saw the bunch strung out through the final corners and Boasson Hagen timed his move perfectly.

The Route: flat. Normally the vertical gain of each stage is listed by the race organisers but it’s not worth listing this time. The route runs through the Dombes, a relatively small area of land but where about one fifth of France’s lakes are concentrated and the roads are exposed on embankments above the water. It’s still scenic but technically similar to a time trial in the Netherlands. But the roads do undulate in places and knowing when to change gear will play a role although for the most part it’s all about turning a huge gear.

The Scenario: normally there’d be Tony Martin and then everyone else. The world time trial champion would be expected to blitz the course with his mix of raw power and technical proficiency. But he’s been laid low by a stomach problems and almost didn’t start Stage 3. So the result could depend on the state of Martin’s intestines rather than his legs and lungs.

Behind we’ll see how Alberto Contador and Chris Froome fare. They’ve only raced four time trials together and Froome has finished faster three times so history is on the British rider’s side. But it’ll be interesting to see how they fare as the Tour de France has a flat 33km time trial on Stage 11 which is just 35 days away so there’s not much room to improve. Froome’s visited a wind tunnel for the first time in his career in recent months. We’ll see if he’s improved his time trial position, at least in style via TV images.

Others to watch include Richie Porte who might prefer a hillier route but can win outright, Geraint Thomas too. This is also the case for their ex-team mate Michael Rogers now at Saxo-Tinkoff. Jurgen Van Den Broeck should make the top-5 like he always does. Lieuwe Westra had a big crash on Stage 2 and went for x-rays, he’s back in the race but this is bound to hurt. Sylvain Chavanel’s powerful against the watch and reigning French champion and he’s been active in the last few days.. a sign he’s ready to waste or has he tired himself out? His team mate Michał Kwiatkowski is one to watch, he’s a talent for the future and it takes time to learn how to ride against the clock. Talking of progress, Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo has been fast in short distance events, can he improve over 32km? Finally NetApp probably won’t win but the likes of Alexander Wetterhall and Jan Barta are strong on a flat course like this.

Weather: a pleasant day with sunshine and almost no wind. The forecast says a 5km/h breeze coming from the north-west meaning a tiny headwind on the way back.

TV: the last rider is forecast to arrive at 2.38pm Euro time with Froome and Contador finishing around 2.15pm so tune in for the last hour to watch the main names in action. cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have the links to video streams if you can’t get it on TV.

Local rider: Fumiyuki Beppu of Orica-Greenedge might be the last name you’d pick for a local. But the Japanese rider from Chigasaki on an Australian team lives 10km from the course today and so he’s out on his training roads. In fact he was on them for Stage 3 when he got in the day’s early breakaway too. Beppu is probably the most French of all the Japanese pros, having lived in France for some time after racing as an amateur with the VC La Pomme team, even more so than Yukiya Arashiro who’s spent years with in the French amateur ranks, signed for BBox and now riders with Europcar. Many Japanese riders find the French diet a shock but Beppu is the kind of rider who eats a croissant for breakfast now and then.