Vuelta a España: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a stage for the sprinters - or so it seems. In fact, the final 10 km are very demanding with a steep hill and a tricky descent. More on the later.

The day starts in Calahorra and finish in Burgos after 189 km in the saddle. Without being completely flat, this isn’t a very hilly stage either. The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s Vuelta and their teams will be eager to control the race. The first 100 km take place in head- and crosswind and we shouldn’t see a breakaway get too much of a gap.  After 109.8 km it’s time for the first categorized climb of the day, Alto de Pradilla. It’s a category 3 climb and the 6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.4 %.

The next climb, Alto de Valmala, starts after 133.5 km and from its top there are 50 km to the finishing line. The last intermediate sprint comes with 36 km to go and from here, the riders will be able to enjoy a strong tailwind towards Burgos. On paper, the final 10 km don’t look very tough but if you haven’t done your homework, you will be in for a big surprise!

With about 10 km to go, the riders turn right - away from the big road - up the little Calle Eras de San Francisco. The following 1.2 km are uphill and especially the first part is steep. While the riders won’t be able to admire it, the TV-viewers will have a beautiful view over Burgos on the way towards the top of the hill. From here, it’s downhill for about 450 meter before the road kicks up again for 200 meters. The following 800 meters downhill are very technical and on narrow roads. The peloton will be stretch out significantly on this part, and it’s doubtful all the sprinters will make it back to the front in time.

The final 5 km are straight out with a few up and down parts. There is now cross- and headwind towards the line and it won’t be easy for a lonely rider to keep the peloton behind him. However, if the sprinters aren’t back in the peloton, it may be very difficult organizing the chase.

The final 14 km of stage 17. Many things to pay attention to!
Click for larger view.

We haven’t seen a regular mass sprint since Michael Matthews won Stage 5 and the chances are good that we won’t get one this time either. Usually Philippe Gilbert, Luis León Sanchez and Simon Gerrans would be excellent winner candidates for a finish like this one. However, they are all out of the race and instead we should probably look to opportunistic riders like Juan Antonio Flecha, Fabian Cancellara, Luca Paolini and Rinaldo Nocentini for a late attack on the hill.

Especially Fabian Cancellara is extremely strong right now and if he gets away on the descent, I doubt the peloton will see him again until after they cross the finishing line. The same goes for a rider like Samuel Sanchez. He’s getting better and better but he still isn’t able to beat the best climbers uphill. Sanchez knows how to attack on the final kilometers and keep the peloton behind him and he’s very eager to give Euskaltel their first stage win in the their last Vuelta a España.

In case it all gets back together in time for the final sprint, it should come down to a battle between Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews. In theory, any of them should have problems on the 1.2 km climb but it all depends on how fast the peloton is going. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another very good candidate for the stage win. He came close when Gilbert won and he’s been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway the last couple of days. The strong Norwegian is obviously in great shape and I would be surprised not to see him fight for the win in Burgos.

If you are looking for a super joker, look to Anthony Roux. He’s very fast on the line, especially in a reduced peloton, and he’s been doing very well the last two days in the Pyrenees. He may not be able to beat the big sprinters in a regular bunch sprint but with a finish like this one, he should be in the mix.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 17, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

Philippe Gilbert finally got his first win in his Rainbow Jersey when he won stage 12 of the Vuelta. Just like last year when he arrived winless at the Vuelta. Back then, Gilbert went on to win another stage in the race and I think he may just make it two in a row. More on that later.

Stage 13 comes on a Friday and like in the Tour earlier this year, this unlucky combination may cause carnage. In July, Belkin and Saxo-Tinkoff split up the peloton in the crosswind and due to a bike problem; Alejandro Valverde ended losing his race that day. Despite riding alongside the coastline the last 15 km, the wind shouldn’t be a problem on this stage However, the steep Alto del Rat Penat will make sure, nobody arrives to final with fresh legs.

Alto del Rat Penat comes after 114.8 km and even though this category 1 climb is only 4.3 km long, its average (!) gradient of 10.6 % will definitely stretch out and split up the peloton. The following descent is very technical and on small roads, it won’t be easy to get to the front if you’re already dropped on the climb. However, it won’t be easy to keep the peloton behind you either, should you attack on the climb. The final 15 km next to beach are flat and we can expect the peloton to set a high pace at this point. It’s a short stage of only 169 km and that means it will be fast stage as well. Many of the usual sprinters will be dropped and even those remaining won’t have it easy.

Alto del Rat Penat. 4.3 km / avg. 10.6 %

With 3 km to go, the riders turn left, away from the beach. From here, they continue straight out for about two kilometers. The final kilometer includes a couple of turns and with 500 meters to go, the peloton have to overcome a rather large roundabout. Coming out of the roundabout, he final 400 meters are uphill and especially the final 150 meters are steep. It’s very important to have something left in the legs for this final part. It’s not as steep as Alto del Rat Penat but it’s enough to make a significant selection.  

Philippe Gilbert timed his sprint perfectly on stage 12 and knew he was the best in the uphill sprint. He didn’t panic when Edvald Boasson Hagen got a bug gap early and that shows that Gilbert mentally is very strong too. He hasn’t won a single bike race since he won the World Championship last year and it takes a lot to cope with that pressure. This final is perfect for Gilbert and I’m convinced BMC will do whatever they can to control the race in the final.

The biggest threat to Gilbert is, the way I see it, Dani Moreno. The strong Spaniard has already won two stages in this year’s Vuelta and a win here, will also extend his lead in the points classification. It may not be his primary target in the race but if Katusha can’t put a rider on the final podium, at least they can take the Green Jersey. Dani Moreno forgot to eat the other day, when Horner won the stage, but he still seems to be in outstanding shape. Thursday, Moreno turned 32 and a win in Castelldefels would be a great birthday present for the strong Katusha rider.

Another Katusha rider who will be extra motivated is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Stage 13 starts in Valls, the hometown of the late Xavi Tondo. The Spanish rider tragically died on May 23, 2011 while getting ready for training ride. Purito was a good friend of Tondo and last year, he won stage 17 of the Giro d’Italia on the day marking Tondo’s death. It won’t be easy for Purito to win the stage and dedicate it to his late friend but together with Dani Moreno, it’s not impossible.

Michael Matthews punctured with 5 km to go on stage 12 and didn’t get a chance to take part in the sprint. The uphill finish on stage 12 probably suited Matthews more than the one on stage 13 will do but the former U23 World Champion seems to be in great shape. Matthews has been killing the competition on the steep finish in Stirling, in Tour Down Under, two years in a row (2011 & 2012) and on a good day, he’s up there fighting with Gilbert and Moreno for the stage win.

Other strong candidates for the stage win are riders like Alejandro Valverde, Gianni Meersman, Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sanchez, Rinaldo Nocentini and Edvald Boasson Hagen. On paper, this finish is also perfect for Simon Gerrans. However, the Australian doesn’t seem to be 100 % after his crash earlier in this race. Of course, if Gerrans is ready to fight, he is one of the favorites for this stage.

Juan Antonio Flecha is another good outsider. Vacansoleil-DCM is without sprinters at the moment since Barry Markus is out of the race and Grega Bole is fighting a respiratory infection. Flecha is in great shape right now and he’s constantly near the front in the final. In addition, with 22 km to go, the peloton passes through Sitges where Flecha moved to from Argentina at the age of 11. Flecha is now living in today's finish town Castelldefels. It won’t be easy for the Spaniard to outsprint the fast guys but if he can get a little gap, he may be able to take a big win on home soil. One thing is for sure; Flecha will be extremely motivated!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 13, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Juan Antonio Flecha to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

Fabian Cancellara confirmed his great condition by beating Tony Martin against the clock for the first time a couple of years. As expected, his teammate Chris Horner lost the Red Jersey, which is now back on the shoulders of Vincenzo Nilbali. A wasp stung the Astana captain the evening before the time trial but Nibali showed that a wasp can’t take out of shark.

Vincenzo Nibali will have no problems keeping the Red Jersey on Stage 12. This is a day for the sprinters and after missing out on the last two occasions, their teams will be extra motivated to control the race. The first part of the 164.2 km from Maella to Tarragona is up and down most of the time. The riders will be battling cross- and headwind all day long and I don’t expect a breakaway to get much of a gap. The sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances and the strong, opportunistic riders know they may have a better chance on stage 13.

There is a single categorized climb on today’s stage. Alto del Collet starts after 83 km and the 7.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of just 3.6 %. From the top, there are 73.7 km to go and this is definitely the easiest part of the route.

It sounds like a broken record but once again, the race organizers have created a tricky and difficult final. The peloton will be heading towards Tarragona in high speed and a couple of sharp corners will test the riders’ ability to stay upright. With 3 km to go, the peloton turns left and rides next to see beachfront. The following kilometer is flat and we can expect Argos-Shimano and GreenEdge to set a high pace. However, after crossing the 2 km to go-port, the road starts to kick. Not much but enough to tire out the leadout teams. An uphill U-turn and a couple of 90° turns will serve as good place to attack if the sprinters’ teams can’t keep it together.

Map of the final 5 kilometers of Stage 12. The road starts to kick up with 2 km to go. The final kilometer is flat.

The final kilometer is flat but not without danger. Right after crossing flame rouge, there is a sharp left-hand turn and with 300 meters to go, the riders have to cross a roundabout in high speed. The ideal scenario is to enter this roundabout in second position with a single leadout rider in front of you. If you are not among the first three riders here, you won’t win this stage.

The last two bunch sprint stages have been extremely chaotic. Tony Martin almost kept the peloton at bay in the first one and the day after, Philippe Gilbert and Zdenek Stybar manage to hold off the pack with a late attack. The uphill kilometer in the end doesn’t favor the sprinters but I think they will keep it together this time. The way I see it, Michael Matthews is still the fastest rider in this bike race. GreenEdge have been saving their riders the last two days, thinking about this stage and among the remaining sprinters, I can’t see who should beat Matthews in a clean sprint.

Gianni Meersman is fast too but I don’t think he can match Matthews’ speed right now. Meersman usually positions himself very well but without a leadout, I doubt he will do better than top3. Max Richeze has been very strong so far in his Vuelta. He has already finished second twice and if anybody is able to beat Michael Matthews, it may be Lampre’s Argentinian sprinter. Richeze is very fast on the final meters but he needs to enter that last roundabout among the first three riders. Alone against the leadout trains, that’s a tall order.

Tyler Farrar deserves to be mentioned as well but the American sprinter is much better at making top3 than at winning bike races. Farrar is very consistent but he lacks that extra edge. It would be a mistake to count him out in this field but it will also be a bit surprising to see him win in Tarragona.

Argos-Shimano hasn’t been able to control the race as well as they have done earlier this season. They bring a very young team to the Vuelta and their inexperience shows. However, the team is still strong and with riders like Nikias Arndt, Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam they should be able to do a great leadout. Sinkeldam is very fast and if Arndt and Janse van Resnburg can keep the speed high and make sure they enter that last roundabout in front, Sinkeldam may surprise a few. I doubt he can outsprint Michael Matthews but I think he will put up a good fight.

Another interesting rider for this stage is Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky has been very anonymous so far in the race and without anybody able to fight for the overall win, they may change their focus to the sprints. Boasson Hagen doesn’t need a leadout and he knows how to position himself well in the final. The uphill kilometer towards flame rouge favors the strong Norwegian and if he’s not scared of doing the sprints - after getting back from an injury - he should be able to fight for the win.

Riders like Juan-Antonio Flecha and Philippe Gilbert are never afraid of attacking and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them trying a late attack on the uphill part in the final. The many twist and turns don’t favor the peloton but it won’t be easy to stay away. Instead, Friday’s stage 13 looks a lot better for Gilbert and the other puncheurs. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 12, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

On stage 2, Dani Moreno waited too long when Nicolas Roche attacked. That mistake cost him the stage win. Tuesday afternoon, Moreno took no chances when he attacked from afar and managed to keep Fabian Cancellara and the rest of the peloton behind him. Cancellara’s strong effort probably made the gap among the favorites, which made Chris Horner lose the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali. However, the American doesn’t seem too upset over losing the jersey. “It’s ok for now. I will use my good legs to get it back”, he says.

Astana shouldn’t have problems keeping the jersey on Stage 5 even though it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. There are only two categorized climb on profile but the 174.3 km from Sober to Lago de Sanabria include numerous hills. Officially, the first climb Alto do Covelo doesn’t start until after 68.6 km. However, at this point the road has already been going uphill for the past 11 km.

With 42.3 km to go, the final categorized climb of the day begins. Alto de Padornelo is 11 km long but with an average of just 2.6 % it won’t make for a huge selection in peloton. It gets steeper towards the top but strong sprinters like Gianni Meersman, Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t have problems staying in front.

Coming down from Alto de Padornelo the final 20 km may look flat but don’t be fooled. We are in Spain and that means you shouldn’t trust the road book when it comes to “flat” parts. The last 10 km are constantly up and down and there is a part of 1.5 km with an average gradient of 4.3 % as the peloton enters Cubelo with 6 km to go. A tailwind will help the riders keep a high pace the final 5 km and without any sharp corners; it will be a fast finish. However, this is the Vuelta and it can’t surprise anybody that the race organizers have put in a 90° corner with just 600 meters to go. This will stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point. Preferably with two teammates in front of you.

Dani Moreno took the peloton by surprise on stage 4 but with a flat finish, guys like Meersman, Matthews and Boasson Hagen should be able to fight for the win. It’s a tough day and I’m not quite sure the pure sprinters will manage to stay in the peloton. The joker picks for a sprint are the same as those for stage 4. Meaning riders like Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Grega Bole and Anthony Roux.

There is a good chance of this stage finishing in a bunch sprint but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a breakaway making it all the way. It could be the morning breakaway and it could be a late breakaway on Alto de Padornelo. Vincenzo Nibali is not interested in losing the Red Jersey again so we have to look to riders already out of the GC for possible breakaway candidates.

Amets Txurruka is 4:33 min behind in the overall classification and the Basque rider is a true breakaway specialist. Txurruka is in great shape right now and has already tried to breakaway twice within the last couple of days. Another strong rider down the GC who is in good shape is Juan Antonio Flecha. He has attacked on the last kilometers the last two days in a row but without success. Flecha is obviously going strong right now but maybe he’ll have more luck with an attack from afar.

The TV-viewers have been spoiled with images of the beautiful scenery in Galicia and with the finish line next to Lago de Sanabria, this will be another spectacular stage to watch. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 5, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and picks Thomas de Gendt to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

After Friday’s boring sprint stage, it’s now time for some real action. Kidding aside, Saxo-Tinkoff showed they can outnumber Chris Froome in the crosswind but I doubt they will try something on this stage.

The Route

A morning breakaway is yet to make it all the way in this year’s Tour de France but I have a feeling it will happen this time. There are seven categorized climbs on the menu and even though they aren’t very steep, they should prove to be too much for the pure sprinters.

The first 60 km of the stage is flat and if the wind is strong we could see some teams trying to split the peloton once again. The forecast shows a light wind though and most likely, we will see fireworks of breakaway attempts instead. I expect these first 60 km to take place in a very high pace and since everybody knows this is a day for a breakaway, everybody wants to be up front.

The only thing that really can prevent a breakaway from making it is Peter Sagan and his Cannondale team. If they have the manpower to do another monster pull again, they could really make some damages. It all depends on the wind, who is in the break, how the GC riders feel and bunch of other things. Like I wrote the other day, Peter Sagan is not shy of attacking on these kind of stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to get into the morning breakaway himself.

The Finish

The final 18 km of Stage 14 - Click for larger view.

The last 30 km include three category 4 climbs. They are not long nor steep but they serve as excellent places to test your fellow escapees. The last one, Côte de la Croix-Rousse (1.8 km / 4.5 %), has its top just after the 10 km to go banner. The run-in from here is very easy and with the expected tailwind, a strong rider may be able to keep a chasing group at bay. The last 2 km are straight out on Avenue Jean Jaurès and it will be a high-speed sprint should a bigger group arrive together.

The Favorites Breakaway Candidates

On a stage like this one, you can’t really talk about favorites. Today’s profile has “breakaway” written all over it but of course there are some riders more likely to hit the right break than others. Classic specialists like Juan-Antonio Flecha, Lars Boom, Philippe Gilbert and Sylvain Chavanel will all have this stage red-circled in their road books but so will about 100 riders. Lars Bak is another rider who’s recently been very good at hitting the right breakaways. He won a stage in the Giro d’Italia last year and managed to get into - what seemed like - the right break this year on a day he had marked. I know he has this stage written down and I won’t be surprised to see him in the final break.

Other solid breakaway candidates are riders like Thomas Voeckler (multiple Tour de France stage winner), Pierrick Fedrigo (last year stage winner), Arthur Vichot (French Champion), Jan Bakelants (stage winner and former yellow jersey), Alexey Lutsenko (U-23 World Champion) and Simon Gerrans (stage winner and former yellow jersey).

With the long flat finish I think it’s important to be fast on the line. If you’re not strong enough to go solo on the last climb, you need to pack a solid sprint. Riders like Michael Albasini, Enrico Gasparotto, Tony Gallopin and Julien Simon are other good candidates with a fast finish but honestly, I could keep on naming possible winners for days. Take a look at the start list and mark the fast guys who’s strong on these kind of hills. You will end up with a long list of names and if you pick out a couple of riders, chances are you will have at least one in the final break.

If I had to put my money on only one rider tomorrow, it would Jan Bakelants. He’s in the shape of his life right now and he’s already won one stage in this year’s Tour de France. He managed to bridge the gap to the break with Pierre Rolland on the second Pyrenees stage and that shows his climbing legs are great too. Bakelants is good at hitting the right breakaways and he’s also kind of fast on the line. His morale is high and after taking it easy on the second part of the time trial, I think he’s ready to do whatever he can to cross the finishing line first in Lyon Saturday afternoon.

Of course, should it all end with a sprint in a reduced peloton Peter Sagan is the man to beat.

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 14:

Tour de France: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

The peloton continues heading west and this stage should end up with another bunch sprint. Still, the 205.5 km includes four categorized climbs and if Cannondale and others set a high pace, some of pure sprinters may have troubles keeping up.

The Route

With the Pyrenees waiting in the weekend, the GC riders would welcome a quiet day in the saddle. The sprinters hope the same but a couple of hard climbs will make their day difficult. The first 50 km are flat but from here on the road starts to kick up. Col des 13 Vents is only a category 3 climb but its 6.9 km have an average gradient of 5.6 % and there is hard part of 8 % near the top.

After the descent, the peloton immediately starts on the next climb; Col de la Croix de Mounis. It’s the hardest climb of the day and the 6.7 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.5 %. The climb is very steep the first two kilometers and after a flat part near the top, it kicks up with over 10 %.

There are still 110 km from the top of Col de la Croix de Mounis to the finishing line in Albi. Many sprinters will be chasing the peloton at this point and most of them should be able to rejoin in time for the intermediate sprint in Viane. The next climb, Côte de la Quintaine, won’t bring the sprinters any problems and the final one, Côte de Teillet, isn’t steep either. The final 55 km are downhill and sets for a face finish. However, it doesn’t favor a breakaway much with headwind the final 35 km towards Albi.

The Finish

The final 6 km of Stage 7.

Thanks to the headwind, the peloton shouldn’t have problems bringing back a breakaway. There are three roundabouts to overcome just before entering Albi and from here on it’s pretty much straight out towards the line. Still, there is a tricky roundabout passing with 2.5 km to go and this will stretch out the peloton as the road gets smaller. That means it’s important to be well placed as the final part towards the line is very fast. You won’t win the sprint at this point but being in a poor position can very well end your chances of success.

The Favorites

Mark Cavendish missed out on Stage 6 after he crashed and had to waste a lot of energy getting back. Cavendish was furious after the stage and he’s usually good at using his rage to motivate him even more. On Stage 5 Cavendish showed that he has no problems coping with small hills and those in the final of Stage 6 shouldn’t trouble him. The category 2 climb is nasty but with over 100 km to go from the top, Omega Pharma Quickstep will have plenty of time to bring back Cavendish. This is not like on Corsica where the riders had to overcome tough climbs near the finishing line.

I’ve been talking about the importance of a good lead out train the last couple of days and there is no need to repeat all of it again. Lotto-Belisol showed how it’s done on Stage 6 and they will be eager to do it again on this stage. I still think Argos-Shimano have best train but I’m not sure how Marcel Kittel will get over the climbs. Instead I expect the Dutch team to change focus to John Degenkolb and that’s not improving their chances of a stage win. Peter Sagan will be there in the final, so will Edvald Boasson Hagen and if Cavendish and Greipel are there to, Degenkolb will simply be overmatched. The three top sprinters, Kittel, Cavendish and Greipel have now all won a stage and it’s only Peter Sagan of the big guns who’s still winless. Sagan won’t have problems on the climbs today and if the other sprinters don’t get back in time, he’s the man to beat.

The Jokers

I personally doubt a breakaway will make all the way but should it happen, look out for Juan-Antonio Flecha. The Spaniard was very active the first days on Corsica and after a few quiet days, his batteries are now re-charged. Flecha is not afraid of attacking - quite the opposite - and he’s fast on the line too. The headwind will make it difficult to keep the peloton at bay but should they miss-time it, Flecha seems like a good pick. Jens Voigt is another rider for these kind of stages. Radioshack have been unlucky the last couple of days with both Andreas Klöden and Haimar Zubeldia crashing and they could need a success story. Voigt has friends from Berlin visiting him on Stage 7 and why not show them the real Jens Voigt trademark with a strong attack?

Favorites: Mark Cavendish / Peter Sagan

Jokers: Juan-Antonio Flecha / Jens Voigt

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 7:

Tour de France: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

Despite an undulating profile, this should be a stage for the sprinters. There are four categorized climbs on the menu but except for the first one, they shouldn’t really trouble the sprinters.

The Route

With its 228.5 km this is the longest stage of the Tour so far. Going west towards Marseille, the riders start climbing right away on Côte de Châteauneuf-Grasse. The climb is only 1.4 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.4 %. Many riders will be eager to get away and this is the perfect place to do so.

The two top sprinters of the race Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel are yet to compete in a bunch sprint in this Tour and Omega Pharma Quickstep and Lotto-Belisol will have to control the race. Peter Sagan is also out for revenge after finishing second twice already and his Cannondale team should help out too.

The last categorized climb has its top with just 20 km to go. On Corsica, the late climbs proved to be too much for the sprinters but it shouldn’t be case this time. The 5.7 km towards the top of Côte des Bastides kick up with 3.1 % and Cavendish and especially Greipel should be able to stay in the bunch.

The final 4 km towards the finishing line.

The Finish

According to ASO Côte des Bastides was the last climb worth categorizing on this stage. However, the riders still have to overcome Col de la Gineste. The 7 km towards the top aren’t steep but if some sprinters had troubles on Côte des Bastides, they will have big problems getting back into the peloton in time for the final sprint. The view from the top of Côte des Bastides over the Mediterranean Sea is spectacular and the riders can almost see the finishing line 12.5 km ahead. The descent is much steeper than the ascent of the climb and this should make for a fast finish.

The riders enters Marseille with about 6 km to go and continue on big roads all the way to the line. Coming down Avenue du Prado towards the sea, the riders pass the last km port before turning left on Avenue Pierre Mendès France with just 500 meters to go. It’s not a very difficult corner but it will stretch out the peloton. Therefore, it’s important to be among the first five or six riders in order to win the stage. Like the view from the top of Col de la Gineste, also the final 500 meters are breathtaking with the hills in the background and the Mediterranean Sea on the right side. So far ASO have really spoiled us with post card scenery in this 100^th edition of the Tour de France.

The Favorites

With everybody on 100 %, I would pick Mark Cavendish as the favorite. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Cavendish started out the Tour with bronchitis and even though he’s feeling better, he hasn’t been great so far. Another good candidate for this stage is Peter Sagan. He will have no problems with the climbs but the crash on Stage 1 has weakened him. He barely managed to keep Michal Kwiatkowski behind him on Stage 2 and came up short against Simon Gerrans on Stage 3. Sagan’s team hasn’t been good enough so far and even though it’s hard to bet against him, I don’t see Sagan as the big favorite for this stage.

Instead, my favorite is Andre Greipel. The German Champion came to the Tour in great shape but hasn’t been able to show it yet. He couldn’t keep up with the front group on Stage 2 but he came close to bridge the gap. On Stage 3 he quickly realized it wasn’t going to happen and I think he saved a little energy being dropped early on. Many don’t think Andre Greipel is good on the hills but he’s actually not bad at all. In Tour of Turkey he won Stage 4 despite a long climb near the finish and he has won uphill sprints in the past too. The hills today are not steep at all and Lotto-Belisol showed on the TTT that they are very strong. Both Greipel and Cavendish are behind in the fight for the Green Jersey and they can’t let this opportunity go to waste. Orica-GreenEdge will work hard in order to keep the Yellow Jersey and this should come down to a bunch sprint.

The Jokers

One of the strongest riders so far in this Tour de France has been Juan-Antonio Flecha. He has been attacking almost every day and I would be surprised not to see him try again soon. Vacansoleil-DCM are still without sponsors for next season and the riders are eager to show themselves and help the team get seen on TV. As I’ve said, it won’t be easy for a breakaway to make it on this stage. The sprinters’ teams want control the race and a morning breakaway seems doomed.

The view from the top of Col de la Gineste over the sea.

However, a late attack in the final may be the right choice. Normally I wouldn’t pick Flecha for an uphill attack but he showed on Stage 2 that his legs are great and that he’s climbing just fine. Flecha is fast on the line and should he manage to get away over the top of Col de la Gineste, the peloton will have to work hard in order to catch him. The wind is in favor of the peloton though. The final 12 km take place in a strong head / cross wind and that makes it hard to maintain a gap. Especially the last 2 km on Avenue Pierre Mendès will be extremely hard alone against the pack.

On the topic of jokers, look out for Julien Simon as well.  The French sprinter was furious after Stage 3 when Rojas blocked his way. According to Simon he had the legs to win the stage and he will be eager to demonstrate that in Marseille. His team mate Julien El Fares is another candidate. I’ve already mentioned El Fares earlier in the Tour and this is a stage he has marked in his road book. He comes from the area and his family and friends will be out cheering for him. However, in order for El Fares to succeed he needs to attack from a far. If he’s not up the road already, the Frenchmen will have to work hard for teammate Julien Simon in the final sprint.

Favorite: Andre Greipel

Jokers: Juan-Antonio Flecha / Julien Simon

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 5:

Paris-Roubaix: Preview and Favorites

Last year, Fabian Cancellara crashed out of Ronde van Vlaanderen and saw Tom Boonen winning both RvV and Paris-Roubaix. This year, Boonen crashed out of RvV while Fabian Cancellara won the race. Cancellara has been outstanding the last couple of weeks and there is really only one favorite for Paris-Roubaix this year.

Unfortunately, Fabian Cancellara saw the need to spin the legs in Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. He crashed in the race and so did he again the next day, while checking out the cobblesstone sections for Sunday. Two crashes in two days and suddenly Cancellara is not the massive favorite he was as after winning Ronde van Vlaanderen. He is still the favorite, but strong riders like Thor Hushovd, Taylor Phinney, Juan-Antonio Flecha, Ian Stannard, Edvald Boasson Hagen etc. are now more likely to win than they were just a few days ago.

I would imagine Radioshack to take control like they did last Sunday but they have to be careful. BMC and Team Sky have two very strong teams with multiple winner candidates and Radioshack can’t close all gaps by themselves. In the end it will be up to Fabian Cancellara himself to take action and if he still feels the recent crashes, he won’t be as unbeatable has he looked in Ronde van Vlaanderen. I still think Cancellara will win Paris-Roubaix, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a BMC or Team Sky rider crosses the line first on the velodrome.

I have a feeling Taylor Phinney will end on the podium. Last year, all he was thinking about was the Giro d’Italia prologue and he absolutely killed it. This winter has been all about peaking in Paris-Roubaix for Taylor Phinney and even though it won’t be as “easy” as winning the Giro prologue, the young American knows how to perform under his own pressure. Phinney has been naming Thor Hushovd as BMC’s designated team leader numerous times the last couple of weeks, but I personally think, Phinney will end as best BMC rider on Sunday. He’s incredibly strong on the cobblestones and very fast on the line. If Taylor Phinney arrives to the velodrome in the first group, I think he will win this race.

Paris-Roubaix is also the last chance for Team Sky to prove their untraditional Classics training was a good idea. It’s easy to criticize them, but we must remember that Geraint Thomas crashes in both Milano-San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen. In Milano-San Remo, Ian Stannard took over and did a great race and last Sunday, Edvald Boasson Hagen almost got on Sagan’s wheel when he and Cancellara went away in the final. EBH couldn’t stay with the strong duo on Kwaremont, but I think he will be better on the cobblestones. Like Phinney, Boasson Hagen is very fast on the line and I expect him to be among the best riders on Sunday.

Like always, I’ll like to point out a joker. This time it’s Matthieu Ladagnous. The big Frenchman has been very strong so far this season and the last couple of week he’s been near the front at all time. He was in the winning break with Sagan in Gent-Wevelgem (ended 6^th) and he took 2^nd place in the sprint behind the podium in Ronde van Vlaanderen last Sunday. Ladagnous finished 12^th in Paris-Roubaix last year and he is very eager to do even better this year. He probably won’t win this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s among the riders fighting for a spot on the podium.

For other strong riders with a fast finish, look to Lars Boom, Sébastien Turgot, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Jurgen Roelandts.

Winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Podium picks: Taylor Phinney / Edvald Boasson Hagen

Joker: Matthieu Ladagnous

For live coverage of this year's Paris-Roubaix go to steephill.tv

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad: Favorites & Jokers

Sep Vanmarcke surprised many last year when he outsprinted Tom Boonen for the win and I wouldn’t be surprised if another outsider takes the win this time. Most of all because they aren’t any top top favorites on the start list. Tom Boonen is here, yes, but not in the shape he would have liked to be in, and therefore we have to look to Terpstra and Chavanel to find the team leaders of Quickstep this Saturday. 

Niki Terpstra has shown to be very strong right now and he is not afraid of attacking. If the weather conditions blow the race apart early my pick for winner will be Terpstra. It does require he attacks and gets away alone though. Despite not being slow on the line, I simply can’t see him beat other candidates like Jurgen Roelandts, Greg Van Avermaet or Filippo Pozzato in a sprint.

In this very moment, my own personal favorite is Filippo Pozzato. I think he will have a great spring season this year, winning a least one of the big classics. Last year he waited too long in Ronde van Vlaanderen and made a horrible tactical mistake in Paris-Roubaix - I doubt he will fail like that again. Pippo showed in Trofeo Laigueglia that he is in great shape already and being fast on the line and strong on the hills, it be very difficult to drop him.

Greg Van Avermaet too is very fast on the line - even faster than Pozzato - and he must be named as one of the favorites. The reason why he isn’t my first pick is because of the strong team BMC send to the race. With Hushovd, Oss, Phinney, Blythe and in-form Schar in addition to Van Avermaet, the chances of one of those getting into the final break and therefore not pulling for a sprint is quite high. I would imagine BMC have Van Avermaet set as their designated leader, but everything can happen in these races.

I think it will be an advantage only to have one captain this Saturday and that’s why I also name Jurgen Roelandts among the best winner candidates. Roelandts was very strong in Tour Méditerranéen and being the only team leader on Lotto-Belisol - who are winning as they please this season - I would be surprised not to see him in front on Saturday. He finished last season in a very strong way and this could be his chance finally to breakthrough in the classics. Roelandts is very fast and the way he won the stage to Grasse in Tour Med really showed he is one to take seriously for this race and the up-coming classics.

Other strong candidates for the win are Lars Boom and Juan-Antonio Flecha but like Terpstra these two need to get away alone or in a group without sprinters in order to win.

As always, I have a couple of jokers for you too and the first one is no stranger if you regularly visit this site. Oscar Gatto got a little breakthrough last year with strong attacks but the best has yet to come. Being the sole captain of Vini-Fantini in the classics, the responsibility is naturally bigger now and I think Gatto will prove to be worthy of it. Gatto is very fast on the line and very difficult to drop on the hills. He is not afraid to take initiative and attack from a far and with Strade Bianche coming up soon, this would be an excellent opportunity for Gatto to build some self-confidence and show he is rider to look out for in the Spring Classics this season.

My second joker is Zdenek Stybar. Few riders can match Stybar’s shape right now - thanks to cyclocross in the winter - and even though he is very inexperienced in these kind of races, he sure has the power to fight for the win. Stybar is good on these hills and fast too should it come to a sprint. As already mentioned, Quickstep have a lot of riders to play out this Saturday, but don’t be surprised if Stybar ends up being their man for the win.

For a super joker look to Martin Elmiger. The Swiss veteran has had a great start of the season for the new IAM Cycling team and even though Heinrich Haussler is the team captain here, I’m sure Elmiger will put in at least a couple of attacks. I will expect him to get into the big break of the day and that could very well prove to be important if the race splits up early. Elmiger is very strong and on a good day not too slow in a sprint either. I will be a big surprise should he take the win, but under the right circumstances he might just surprise and get on the podium.

* * *
Pozzato - Roelandts - Van Avermaet

* *
Boom - Flecha - Terpstra

*
Gatto - Stybar - Elmiger

Paris-Roubaix: Pozzato wins!

Get ready to see Filippo Pozzato rock those
cobblestones on Sunday the 8th of April!

As you can see I’ve once gain changed the set-up. Instead of listing a couple of my favorites, I rather want to explain why I think Filippo Pozzato will win this year’s Paris-Roubaix.

Would you have picked Pozzato to take second place in Ronde Van Vlaanderen less than 2 months after he broke his collarbone? Well, I was impressed! And I think he has another top performance ready for us this Sunday.

Ever since Milano-San Remo this year Filippo Pozzato has consistently been among the best riders in all the races he has participated in. 6th in Milano-San Remo, 6th in Dwars door Vlaanderen, 9th in Gent-Wevelgem and 2nd in Ronde van Vlaanderen last weekend. Especially last Sunday he showed how strong he is right now, when he dropped Boonen on the last part of Paterberg. In the end it seemed like Pozzato had a too much faith in his own sprint but I doubt he will make this mistake again. If the Italian Playboy wants to win Paris-Roubaix he needs to get rid of Tom Boonen before the Velodrome and even though that may seem as an impossible task, I think he can do it. And what is more important, so do Pozzato.

Filippo Pozzato broke his collarbone
less than two months ago.

Like every year Pozzato is super motivated for Paris-Roubaix and with his 2nd place from 2009 and 7th from 2010 he sure knows how to handle himself on the cobblestones. Last year he was right up there with the best after Forest of Arenberg, but unfortunately Pozzato had bike problems and since his team car had punctured earlier on, there was no one left to help the Italian.

The way I see it, Filippo Pozzato is the second strongest rider right now. As predicted in December, Tom Boonen is back, and only a fool wouldn’t pick him out a the biggest favorite for Paris-Roubaix. So why don’t I think he will win it again? Well, the truth is that I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. Boonen has the strongest team of all with Chavanel and Terpstra to play out in the final, but without Fabian Cancellara in the race, everyone now looks at Quickstep to take control – and that’s why I think Pozzato has a good chance of winning. Everyone wants to attack Tom Boonen and if he uses up his team mates too early, since ‘why should anybody else take control of the race?’, it will open up for a hectic finale. Ballan, Flecha, Van Summeren, Vanmarcke, Boom, Oss, Paolini, Devolder etc etc are all strong riders who aren’t afraid of attacking and why would any other team want to chase down a breakaway just to see Tom Boonen outsprint them in the final? (To put it simple).

Pozzato's gesture to Ballerini
who died in car accident in 2010.

I think Filippo Pozzato will stay in the wheel of Tom Boonen for most of the race but in the end I think he will give a go. And if Pozzato first gets a good gap he just showed it takes one of the strongest riders in the world to catch him.

Another aspect is Franco Ballerini. In 2010 Pozzato crossed the finish line, as Italian champion, showing a picture of the late Ballerini and this year he wants to do more. “I want to win Paris-Roubaix for Franco”, Pozzato recently told La Gazzetta and that’s the same spirit we find at the Farnese Vini team. DS Luca Scinto rode, like Pozzato, with Ballerini at Mapei back in the days and Scinto is sure the team will get extra strength on Sunday. “That day we will be racing in nine, instead of eight”, he told velonews after Ronde van Vlaanderen. So there it is. My pick for Paris-Roubaix: Filippo Pozzato! If I had to mention a few outsiders I would tell you all to look out for Lars Boom (Rabobank), Bernhard Eisel (Team Sky) and Italian sprinter Danielle Bennati (Radioshack).

Favorites for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad & Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

It’s time for the Belgian cobblestones and I for one have been looking forward to this for quite some time now! Without much time on my hands I’ll go straight to it. Here are my favorites for the two races this weekend.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

Favorite number 1 is without any doubt Tom Boonen. This is one of the few races Tornado Tom hasn’t won yet and with the condition he has been showing so far this year, he is the man to beat. On top of that he even has one of the strongest teams to back him up. Riders like Chavanel, Ciolek, Steegmans are all there to work for Boonen and except for BMC I can’t see any teams with a line up as strong as Quickstep’s for this race.

It would be easy to say Juan Antonio Flecha, but to spice it up a bit I’ll go with Greg Van Avemaet. It’s true that both Philippe Gilbert and Thor Hushovd are there as well, but it’s not time for those two yet. Gilbert has RvV and the Ardennes on his mind while Hushovd has his mind fixed on Paris-Roubaix. This time Greg Van Avermaet has a rare chance to prove himself and with the shape he has proved to be in already, he is my best pick for a winner if not Tom Boonen takes it.

To stay with the outsiders, I’ll pick Marco Marcato. The Italian has recently made the cut for the Italian Olympic pre-selection and it seems like Marcato has started this season like he ended the last one – with style! Marcato has been working hard on his sprint during the winter and even though Vacansoleil also have Devolder on Leukemans on the roster for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, I think Marcato will be their designated leader. Look out for this in-shape Italian on Saturday!

Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

Like last year I think it will end up in mass sprint this time as well and who is the best sprinter of 2012 so far? Andre Greipel! The Gorilla has been outstanding and been climbing very well too. If he is ready after Tour of Oman he will be the number 1 favorite, and that’s even with Mark Cavendish on the starting line as well – new world…

It’s too easy to say Mark Cavendish now and honestly I don’t know if he’s up for it already. I'll go with another outsider in Yauheni Hutarovich. The Belarus took second place last year and seems to be in good condition already as well this year. He has been just short of stage wins in both Tour Down Under and Tour Méditerranéen and normally he is good in the Belgian races. Have you practiced your spelling? If not, do it now, cause the name Yauheni Hutarovich is likely to be mentioned in the top3 Sunday…

There are a lot of riders who can surprise this weekend and being Danish and all I sure hope Matti Breschel is one of them. Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is a very important race for Rabobank and it would be great to see Matti back in the mix with the best riders again. Also look out for Baden Cooke. The Australian has been great all season so far, and if he gets a chance it could take top3 in any of the two races.