Vuelta a España: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

As expected, a break made it all the way on stage 15. Alexandre Geniez made sure the French spectators could celebrate the Vuelta visiting when he soloed away with 25 km to go. No changes in the overall classification as the first five riders stayed together all the time. Only Purito seemed to have energy to keep on trying to attack.

Monday’s stage is another hard day in the Pyrenees but not nearly as hard the last two days. The stage is only 146 km long and this time and it seems like the rain is now gone and the sun is back. Everybody is tired and it won’t be a surprise if an early breakaway manages to stay away again.

The first 20 km takes place in tailwind and this means we are in for another very fast start. Most likely, we will see a break getting away on Puerto de la Foradada. It’s only a category 3 climb but the 5.9 km towards the top still have an average gradient of 5.9 %. There are a lot of tired legs in the peloton after the last two days and it will be interesting who has something left in the tank.From the top of Puerto de la Foradada, the riders will have 60 km to cover in a light crosswind before the they start on the next climb. Puerto de Cotéfablo is 12.5 km long and has an average gradient of 4 %. It’s not a very steep climb but after the last two days, it won’t be a walk in the park either.

At this point on the stage, the wind has now changed and what started out as a tailwind is now a headwind. This means the final 30 km will be extremely hard for a breakaway and it's important to have saved something for the final climb. The ascent up to Aramón Formigal is 15.8 km long and has an average gradient of only 4 %. However, most of the first 6 km are either flat or downhill. The road start to kick up with 10 km to go and the following 3.5 km are steep with parts of nearly 10 %. The climbs then evens out for about 4 km before it gets steep again. The final 3.5 km have an average gradient of 7 % and this is where you can make the difference.

Aramón Formigal. 15.8 km / avg. 4 %. Last 3 km avg. 7 %.

In my preview for stage 15 I mentioned riders like Vasil Kiryienka, Mikel Landa and Diego Ulissi as good breakaway candidates. Landa made it into the break but didn’t have the strength to stay with Geniez. Kiryienka and Ulissi stayed in the peloton and once again, I’d like to point to those two as candidates for a break. I will add to that list riders like Egoi Martinez, Bauke Mollema, Marcos Garcia, Georg Preidler and Chris Anker Sørensen.

The last two names for the (long) list of good candidates are Amets Txurruka and Rigoberto Uran. Txurruka was very active in the beginning of stage 15 and he started several breakaways. However, Txurruka couldn’t cover every move and in the end the big break went away without him (but with two other Caja Rural riders). Rigoberto Uran too was very active on stage 15. He stayed with the favorites for most of the time and he even tried to get away a couple of times. Uran is obviously feeling better and being nearly 25 minutes after Vincenzo Nibali, he won’t be the first rider the peloton start chasing down.

Among the favorites, there are no doubts that Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner are the two strongest riders uphill right now. Actually, it’s probably Horner’s teammate Robert Kiserlovski who’s best climber at the moment. The Croatian champion is a very important help for Horner these days! The last two days have been tough on the riders and once again, it will be interesting to see how 41 years old Chris Horner will recover. Naturally, he can’t recover as fast as the younger riders but so far he doesn’t seem to have any problems at all.

Alejandro Valverde and especially Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez tried to attack on stage 15 but Nibali and Horner never let them get more than a few meters. The final climb is not very steep this time and it will be very difficult for the two Spaniards to get away. Valverde seems to be satisfied with third place overall and he’s probably paying more attention to Purito in 4^th place than to Horner in 2^nd place. Valverde knows he can outsprint Purito in the end Purito knows it too. The final three kilometers on Formigal are the steepest and I expect Purito to put in a couple of strong attacks in the hairpin corners trying to drop Valverde. It won’t be easy but it seems like Purito is very eager to make up for the lost time.

The final 3 km of stage 16. Avg. of 7 %.

Domenico Pozzovivo is only six seconds in front of Nicolas Roche in 5^th place but I don’t think he will have problems keeping the Irishman behind him. Pozzovivo has been very focused on not wasting any energy too early in the race. The Italian climber came to the race aiming for Top5 overall and he’s been saving energy for the last week. Roche has already put in numerous attacks and hadn’t he had a one minute gap to the favorites on the last climb on stage 15, he probably would have lost time again.

Samuel Sanchez is right now the best Euskaltel rider in the mountains and he too seems to be getting better and better every day. Sanchez can’t follow the top favorites when it gets steep but he’s clever and knows how to keep a good pace. The final climb on stage 16 has a couple of flat parts and I won’t surprise me to see Sanchez attack on the flat parts to get a good gap before the road kicks up again. He may even be able to win this stage like that if the peloton keeps the breakaway within striking distance.

The Vuelta pays homage to Fernando Escartín with this stage. The former Kelme captain never managed to win Vuelta a España but he was among the best climbers the country has ever produced.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 16, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Amets Txurruka to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

Daniele Ratto took a beautiful stage win in the rain when he soloed away to win on Collada de la Gallina. Belkin deserves to be mentioned as well though. The Dutch team put in play a brilliant plan but unfortunately, Luis León Sanchez crashed on the long descent and had to quit the race. So did Ivan Basso and since Purito and Valverde are not on top of their game, this Vuelta is down to the battle between Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner.

Stage 14 was a horrible day in the saddle for the riders and it won’t get any better this Sunday. In fact, it only gets worse as the stage is almost 100 km longer. The weather stays the same and there aren’t any less climbs on the menu. On paper, this is another good stage for a breakaway. The favorites will focus on each other and since Nibali and Horner are the strongest uphill, we probably won’t see Katusha and Movistar go hard for the stage win. At least not from the very beginning.

The riders start climbing after just 7 km of the stage when Puerto del Cantó starts. The 24.4 km towards the top have an average gradient of 4.2 %. It’s steepest in the beginning and we can expect a lot of attacks right from the start. From the top of Puerto del Cantó, there are still 50 km until the next climb starts and in tailwind, the breakaway has time to get a good gap.

The final 16.7 km of stage 15 up to Peyragudes.

After 81 km it’s time for Puerto de la Bonaigua. It’s another long climb - 20 km - and with an average gradient of 5,5 %, there won’t be many riders left in the peloton at the top. The descent is almost 65 km long and it’s extremely important to be wearing enough clothes. It will be a very cold day and if you forget to eat and stay warm, you probably won’t be able to cope with the tough final in France.

The last 50 km are the same as when Alejandro Valverde won on Peyragudes in the Tour de France last year. First Col du Port de Balés, then Col de Peyresourde and after a short descent it’s time for the final 4 uphill kilometers towards the finishing line. I think a breakaway will make it all the way again, especially with the tough start of the stage in the mind. There are still many hard climbs left in this Vuelta and the GC riders have to save as much energy as possible in this horrible weather.

I had big expectations for Euskaltel’s Mikel Landa heading into to this Vuelta. Landa did very well in Burgos and seemed to be in great shape. However, he hasn’t shown much of his qualities, until this Saturday. On the hardest stage of the race so far, Mikel Landa stayed with the favorites almost all the time and finished in 9^th place. Euskaltel tried a big play with three riders (Urtasun, Martinez & Antón) attacking but they didn’t manage to get away. It really seems like the team has woken up after the good news of Fernando Alonso saving the team. Mikel Landa is more than one hour after Nibali in the GC and he’s not a rider they will give many thoughts should he attack. It shows a lot of strength to do as well as Landa did on Stage 14 and if he can recover well enough, I think he will try to give Euskaltel their first stage win in their last Vuelta España - as we have known them for 20 years.

Another rider who did very well on Saturday’s tough stage is Vasil Kiryienka. With both of his captains out of the GC, Kiryienka can now take his own chance and he tried a couple of times on stage 14. He didn’t manage to get away but when they were only 10 riders left in front, Vasil Kiryienka was still there. He faded at bit in the end and finished 26^th but I’m sure his sensations were good. The strong Belarusian knows how to get into the winning breakaways and finish it off in the big mountains.

Weather forecast for stage 15. Click for larger view.

I also think Diego Ulissi has a good chance on this stage. The young Italian won the first mountain stage in Tour of Poland last month, also in rainy conditions. Ulissi is very strong on the climbs, not afraid of attacking and he packs a very good sprint as well. The final kilometer of stage 15 is flat and should it happen a few riders arrive together, it will be difficult to beat Diego Ulissi.

In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali already showed he doesn’t mind the harsh weather. He is right now the strongest rider in the race and I doubt he will let go of the Red Jersey anymore. Of course, everybody can have an off day and it’s important to recover well after Saturday’s struggle. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how soon-to-be 42 years old Chris Horner will cope with this long and difficult stage. So far he hasn’t shown any weaknesses uphill and with Robert Kiserlovski in outstanding shape, I guess the other GC riders just can’t drop him.

Alejandro Valverde said he had the worst day of his life on bike in Andorra. He was cold on the descents and it wasn’t until they started climbing he was able to get warm and find his rhythm. However, when he started to climb he was fast. Very fast! He overtook one rider after the other to finish 6^th on the stage. Valverde knows the final on this stage climbs very well and if he can cope with the bad weather and stay in front, he has a very good chance of repeating his stage win from last year.

Katusha wanted to set up Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez near his home in Andorra but Purito simply couldn’t follow the attacks from Horner and Nibali. He decided to keep his own pace and minimize his losses and now the Spanish climber is 2:57 min after Nibali in the overall classification. He has 1:05 min up to Valverde in third place and I think it will be very difficult for Purito to make the overall podium this year. Of course, anything can still happen on these stages but Purito needs to find stronger legs if he wants to distance his rivals uphill.

If you are looking for other interesting riders to make the early breakaway, look to guys like; Chris Anker Sørensen, Andre Cardoso, Amets Txurruka, Javi Moreno, Rafa Valls and Ivan Santaromita. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 15, Laura picks Mikel Nieve to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv