Vuelta a España: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

Philippe Gilbert finally got his first win in his Rainbow Jersey when he won stage 12 of the Vuelta. Just like last year when he arrived winless at the Vuelta. Back then, Gilbert went on to win another stage in the race and I think he may just make it two in a row. More on that later.

Stage 13 comes on a Friday and like in the Tour earlier this year, this unlucky combination may cause carnage. In July, Belkin and Saxo-Tinkoff split up the peloton in the crosswind and due to a bike problem; Alejandro Valverde ended losing his race that day. Despite riding alongside the coastline the last 15 km, the wind shouldn’t be a problem on this stage However, the steep Alto del Rat Penat will make sure, nobody arrives to final with fresh legs.

Alto del Rat Penat comes after 114.8 km and even though this category 1 climb is only 4.3 km long, its average (!) gradient of 10.6 % will definitely stretch out and split up the peloton. The following descent is very technical and on small roads, it won’t be easy to get to the front if you’re already dropped on the climb. However, it won’t be easy to keep the peloton behind you either, should you attack on the climb. The final 15 km next to beach are flat and we can expect the peloton to set a high pace at this point. It’s a short stage of only 169 km and that means it will be fast stage as well. Many of the usual sprinters will be dropped and even those remaining won’t have it easy.

Alto del Rat Penat. 4.3 km / avg. 10.6 %

With 3 km to go, the riders turn left, away from the beach. From here, they continue straight out for about two kilometers. The final kilometer includes a couple of turns and with 500 meters to go, the peloton have to overcome a rather large roundabout. Coming out of the roundabout, he final 400 meters are uphill and especially the final 150 meters are steep. It’s very important to have something left in the legs for this final part. It’s not as steep as Alto del Rat Penat but it’s enough to make a significant selection.  

Philippe Gilbert timed his sprint perfectly on stage 12 and knew he was the best in the uphill sprint. He didn’t panic when Edvald Boasson Hagen got a bug gap early and that shows that Gilbert mentally is very strong too. He hasn’t won a single bike race since he won the World Championship last year and it takes a lot to cope with that pressure. This final is perfect for Gilbert and I’m convinced BMC will do whatever they can to control the race in the final.

The biggest threat to Gilbert is, the way I see it, Dani Moreno. The strong Spaniard has already won two stages in this year’s Vuelta and a win here, will also extend his lead in the points classification. It may not be his primary target in the race but if Katusha can’t put a rider on the final podium, at least they can take the Green Jersey. Dani Moreno forgot to eat the other day, when Horner won the stage, but he still seems to be in outstanding shape. Thursday, Moreno turned 32 and a win in Castelldefels would be a great birthday present for the strong Katusha rider.

Another Katusha rider who will be extra motivated is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Stage 13 starts in Valls, the hometown of the late Xavi Tondo. The Spanish rider tragically died on May 23, 2011 while getting ready for training ride. Purito was a good friend of Tondo and last year, he won stage 17 of the Giro d’Italia on the day marking Tondo’s death. It won’t be easy for Purito to win the stage and dedicate it to his late friend but together with Dani Moreno, it’s not impossible.

Michael Matthews punctured with 5 km to go on stage 12 and didn’t get a chance to take part in the sprint. The uphill finish on stage 12 probably suited Matthews more than the one on stage 13 will do but the former U23 World Champion seems to be in great shape. Matthews has been killing the competition on the steep finish in Stirling, in Tour Down Under, two years in a row (2011 & 2012) and on a good day, he’s up there fighting with Gilbert and Moreno for the stage win.

Other strong candidates for the stage win are riders like Alejandro Valverde, Gianni Meersman, Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sanchez, Rinaldo Nocentini and Edvald Boasson Hagen. On paper, this finish is also perfect for Simon Gerrans. However, the Australian doesn’t seem to be 100 % after his crash earlier in this race. Of course, if Gerrans is ready to fight, he is one of the favorites for this stage.

Juan Antonio Flecha is another good outsider. Vacansoleil-DCM is without sprinters at the moment since Barry Markus is out of the race and Grega Bole is fighting a respiratory infection. Flecha is in great shape right now and he’s constantly near the front in the final. In addition, with 22 km to go, the peloton passes through Sitges where Flecha moved to from Argentina at the age of 11. Flecha is now living in today's finish town Castelldefels. It won’t be easy for the Spaniard to outsprint the fast guys but if he can get a little gap, he may be able to take a big win on home soil. One thing is for sure; Flecha will be extremely motivated!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 13, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Juan Antonio Flecha to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

As expected, it all ended in a bunch sprint on Stage 12 and that should be scenario again on Friday’s Stage 13. Let’s hope this superstitious combination won’t send more riders to the ground as ASO once again have made the final, well, shall we say “interesting” - more on that later.

The Route

Like Thursday’s stage, this is another flat one. There is a small category 4 climb with about 100 km to go but the 1.2 km of 4 % towards the top of Côte de Crotz will barely be noticed in the peloton. The intermediate sprint is located after 112.5 km of the stage and we will see the peloton speed up as usually, which should kill a breakaway’s chances of succeeding.

The route takes the riders southeast and that could make for interesting racing if the wind is strong. As it is now, it won’t be a factor though. With ‘only’ 173 km and a light tailwind, it will be a very fast stage and I can’t see a break making it. This is most likely the last stage for the sprinters before Paris and they simply can’t afford to miss out.

The final two kilometers of Stage 13.

The Finish

Looking at the profile, there seems to be a tough climb close to the line. That isn’t the case. The road does kick up a little but only for 2.5 km with an average of 2.6 %. This surely won’t be enough to drop the sprinters. The run-in towards the finishing line isn’t very complicated but again ASO have decided to spice it up with a couple of tricky corners on the last kilometer. First the peloton turns left in a roundabout, then right - onto a smaller road - then right again and finally left in a roundabout with 400 meters to go. These four corners mean it’s very important to have one or two leadout men left before the final stretch. The finishing line is placed on Rue Pelletier d’Oisy; a parallel road to Avenue du Tour de France which seems like a more logical choice? Oh well.

The Favorites

What Argos-Shimano and Marcel Kittel did on Stage 12 was simply outstanding. Without Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort delivered Marcel Kittel perfectly on the wheel of Mark Cavendish. Gert Steegmans did a great leadout for the Manxman and even though he seemed sure to take the win, Marcel Kittel managed to come around Cavendish on the final meters. Much like he on Stage 10, when Greipel seemed sure to win. Kittel is right now the fastest sprinter in the world and if Cavendish can’t beat him with a perfect leadout, it will be difficult to deny the strong German his 4^th stage win of this year’s Tour de France Friday afternoon. For the first time this Tour, Marcel Kittel is now the man to beat but I doubt he will crack under the pressure…

The sprint ended early for Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel on Stage 12. So far, they have been great at hitting the front at the right time but now it will be more than difficult. Sieberg and Henderson - two of Greipel’s most important leadout riders - both went down hard in the crash and like Veelers, they probably need a few days to get ready again. Furthermore, Jurgen Roelandts hurts his back again after another rider didn’t manage to break in time.

Omega Pharma Quickstep did everything right on Stage 12 but Cavendish simply didn’t have the legs to finish it off. Naturally he - and the team - will be eager to take revenge but against Super Kittel, it won’t be easy. Peter Sagan seems satisfied with getting third and fourth and I expect him to do that again in Saint-Amand-Montrond.

The Joker

As I said yesterday, I’m starting to run out of jokers to pick. I’ve already been through most of them and it seems like only Yohann Gene is left. Europcar have been trying to set him up for the sprint the last days and Gene is getting better and better. He has Kévin Reza to deliver him onto the right wheel and if he can stay out of trouble, he should be able to do Top10 again.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Yohann Gene

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 13:

Giro d'Italia: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

On paper this should be a sprint stage but don’t be surprised if a breakaway makes it all the way to the line. It’s the longest stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia - 254 km - and in this moment the weather forecast shows another rainy day in the saddle.

Mark Cavendish got his win number 100 on Stage 12 and even though the morale now is sky high at Quickstep, Cavendish can relax a little bit. The first 190 km of this stage is more or less flat but the last 65 are up and down all the way to the line. The category three climb, Tre Cuni, starts with about 50 km to go and despite an average gradient of just 4%, it does stretch over 10 km and that will make it hard for the pure sprinters to stay up front. There are 37 km to go from the top of Tre Cuni and after a 15 km descent, the road kicks up again with a short uncategorized climb with gradients of 4-5%. From here on the riders head down a fast descent towards the final uphill section of the day.

The climb to Narzole is uncategorized too and even though it’s only 3 km long, it does have a couple of steep hair pin turns towards the top. There are only 6 km to go from the top and the road is very narrow through the old city in the beginning. The last 4 km are straight out without a single turn and they start slightly downhill. This means a fast sprint if the peloton is still together and it will also makes it difficult for a single rider to stay away despite getting a little gap over the top.

GreenEdge and Matt Goss had this stage red-circled in the race book before the Giro started but Goss is on antibiotics now and another wet day surely won’t be in his favor. Quickstep will probably try to keep it together but this isn’t really a good finish for Cavendish. Instead, riders like Francisco Ventoso and Enrico Battaglin should be named among the favorites. Ventoso hasn’t had much luck so far in the race and he must be eager to finally show off his Spanish Champion jersey up front. Battaglin has been very strong so far - wining Stage 4 and taking 2^nd place on Stage 7 - and unless Bardiani have a rider in the break, I think they will try to give Battaglin an excellent opportunity for another stage win in a reduced group.

The way I see it, a breakaway has a good chance of making it today. Especially if the sprinters are not sure about the climbs and since the GC contenders want to save as much energy as possible for the two big mountain stages in the weekend. It’s close to impossible to pick out a favorite for a stage like this one but there sure are many jokers!

Androni have been in almost every single break of the Giro so far and I would be surprised not see them represented in a break on this stage too. Riders like Miguel Rubiano and Diego Rosa look strong right now and both are good uphill and semi-fast on the line. Another rider this stage is good for is José Herrada. The Spaniard is getting better and better as the race progresses and I’m sure he will make it into a winning break before this race is over. This stage reminds me of the stage to Falzes last year, where a break - with Herrada in it - made it all the way to the line. Teammate Eros Capecchi is also one of the contenders for this stage. He’s fast, good uphill and he seems to be very strong right now after he suffered from allergies in the beginning of the race. Other good picks for a break are Oscar Gatto and Lars Bak. Gatto is very fast and strong on these kind of climbs,while Lars Bak is a breakaway specialist. The Dane has this stage marked and he's eager to repeat his stage win from last year. The downhill part towards the line serves as a great place for Bak to set in his final attack.

Should it come down to another bunch sprint, I think Enrico Battaglin is best suited for the climbs and therefore he is my favorite. Also, the stage ends near the headquarters of Bardiani and CSF I'm sure the team will do everything they can in order to get the win.

Favorite: Enrico Battaglin

Top3 Pick: Francisco Ventoso

Jokers: José Herrada / Lars Bak

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 13:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 13

Purito made up for what happened on Arrate and leveled out the score in my ittle duel with Felix. Great. Now it’s time for another sprint finish and trust me, I won’t make the mistake of picking Ben Swift again.

John Degenkolb has shown to be unbeatable in this Vuelta so far and without many chances left - and with the desire of taking back the points jersey - this is a stage he can’t afford let go of. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu but as always in Spain that doesn’t mean there are no uphill sections. About 15 km from the line it kicks up with 5% for 2-3 kilometers but it shouldn’t really change the fact that this stage will end up in a mass sprint.

Only thing talking against it is Degenkolb’s superiority so far in the race. Like with Purito, no one really wanted to help out Katusha on stage 12 and that could very well happen for Argos-Shimano as well. The way I see it there are only two other sprint stages left in this race but even though the sprinters won’t get many chances from here on it will require a lot of confidence from guys like Viviani, Bouhanni and Bennati if their teams should start helping out Argos-Shimano.

Therefore you must not rule out the chance of a breakaway making it this time. There are some uphill sections in the beginning of the stage and I think it will be another fast start with everybody trying to put a guy in the break. Euskaltel showed on stage 12 that they are back ready to attack and it would make sense for them to send out a guy like Ruben Perez. He is good at picking the right breakaways and he is also very fast on the line. So far he has been sprinting to places from 10-25 in the previous bunch sprints but if he manages to get in the break he could go all the way in Ferrol.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Ruben Perez

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John 'Jaaaa!' Degenkolb

Joker: Assan Bazayev

Explanation: The stage starts in town of Santiago di Compostela, the destination of the major Catholic pilgrimage route of the St James' Way. As such we can expect a likely attack from Javiers Chacon and Aramendia - although it hardly takes religious fervour to force those two out in front of the peloton. It's a tricky, undulating route, but given the lack of opportunities for the sprinters following this stage, I expect it to come down to a bunch finish. If that's the case then you can't really look beyond Degenkolb - it's almost as stupid as picking someone else to win on a punchy ramp other than Joaquim Rodriguez (as Saddles did yesterday - simply to allow Mikkel the chance to draw level and spice things up). While I don't expect a break to stay out, the final kilometres are challenging and there is also a difficult uncategorised climb near the finish. If someone attacks early, they could hold the pack at bay. That someone could be Astana pocket rocket Assan Bazayev.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 13

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This is a stage for the sprinters. It surprises me that ASO decided to give this day to the fast guys and didn’t throw in a couple of climbs so the French riders could attack and hope for a stage win on Bastille Day - or La Fête Nationale as they call it in France. Any attacks seem doomed on this stage, but I won’t go as far as saying we will get a regular mass sprint. Because the race organizers have been a tricky after all.

Favorites:

25 km from the line the riders have to climb Mont Saint-Clair. You may not think much of this climb, being just a category 3, but trust me it’s nasty! It’s just under two kilometers long but the average percentage is 10,2% with parts up to 20% - not exactly in favor of the heavy sprinters like Haedo, Van Hummel, Hutarovich etc.

The beginning of Mont Saint-Clair. 1,6 km - 10,2 %

If the Mont Saint-Clair wasn’t tricky enough the final kilometer certainly is! With only a few hundred meters to go the peloton bends right in 180° corner just before hitting the final stretch to the line. Andre Greipel will have a hard time getting his whole Lotto-Belisol leadout train over the steep Mont Saint-Clair and it will also be difficult for them to deliver him perfectly in the end. That 180° corner means that you need to slow down a little and Greipel likes it best when he can be delivered in high speed.

Instead the finish suits Peter Sagan a lot more since he is good at accelerating from low speed plus he won’t lose any positions in the tricky bend. Sagan is also one of the sprinter that shouldn’t be in trouble on Mont Saint-Clair. Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if Liquigas decide to put pressure on the peloton to see if they drop some of the sprinters before the finish.

If you are looking for a joker, look to Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank and Danish Michael Mørkøv. This year Mørkøv has shown that he really knows how to get in the right break and you can be sure that he will try again tomorrow. Saturday it’s exactly five years ago since his father died and Michael Mørkøv has said that he wants to honor him by winning in Le Cap d'Agde. I doubt Mørkøv will be able to pull it off, but I’m sure he will manage to show himself up the roads before the finish.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Michael Mørkøv

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 13

Gianni Savio explains:

The stage starts with a lot of climbing so if a strong breakaway gets a good gap they could make it since the stage isn't very long. That being said I still think it will end up with a mass sprint in Cervere.

Mark Cavendish is once again the big favorite!