Vuelta a España: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

What an effort from Tony Martin on stage 6. Alone in front from the start to the end, well almost to the end. Fabian Cancellara got a jump on the Argos-Shimano train and performed a perfect leadout for Michael Mørkøv who won the stage. This is only the second professional win in Mørkøv’s career. The first one came in June earlier this year when he won the Danish Championship. Impressive.

Stage 7 is another flat stage and after missing out on Thursday, I’m sure the sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances. The peloton continues south into Andalucía and without a single categorized climb, this won’t be a difficult day in the saddle. The GC riders will have their mind fixed on tomorrow’s mountain stage and they will hope for a quiet day in the peloton.

Everybody managed to stay upright despite the technical finish on stage 6 and hopefully the same will happen Friday afternoon. Once again the race organizers have put in numerous obstacles on the final kilometers. Six roundabouts within the last three kilometers are what the riders have to overcome. The last one, turning right, is placed just 700 meters from the line. The road slightly bends to the left on the last 300 meters and first rider out of this bend most likely wins the stage.

It’s another technical finish but luckily the riders will have a chance to get to know it before it counts. There is an intermediate sprint on the finishing line with 31.4 km to go and knowing the route will hopefully keep everybody upright in the final.

Argos-Shimano almost managed to set up Ramon Sinkeldam perfectly on stage 6. Tony Martin’s strong effort made them take the lead a little too early and they paid for their work in the end. Sinkeldam was extra motivated to win on his wife’s birthday but despite great legs, he couldn’t do better than 15^th place. As I mentioned yesterday, this isn’t Argos-Shimano’s top leadout team. It’s a young team but they still show a lot of power taking the lead. I think it will be a “normal” bunch sprint on stage 7 and if they manage to set up Ramon Sinkeldam again, he could take the peloton by surprise.

The final 5 kilometers of stage 7. Click for larger view.

Like Argos-Shimano, also GreenEdge have a couple of strong guys for the sprints. Michael Matthews is obviously the fastest one right now but a flat sprint like this one is probably better for Leigh Howard. Matthews said that everything now is just a bonus but I’m sure the Australians are very eager to take another win. Matthews is now riding in the green points jersey and the despite the many mountains, this could be a goal for him. It won’t be easy but if GreenEdge decides to go for him in all the sprints, I can’t see why he shouldn’t win a handful more stages.

Max Richeze has been second the last two days in a row and he’s definitely one of the favorites for this stage. The Argentinian sprinter is getting better and better as the race goes on. He doesn’t have that final leadout rider to deliver him in the sprints but he’s very fast on the final meters. Richeze needs to get on the right wheel and he if manages so, he could very well end up winning this stage.

Tyler Farrar couldn’t to better than fourth place on stage 6 but to be fair, Farrar was very fast in the end. The American’s big problem is his positioning. Personally, I don’t understand why Garmin doesn’t wait until the end before taking the lead. Alex Rasmussen is a brilliant leadout rider and if Farrar enters the last bend on the wheel of Rasmussen, he will be extremely difficult to beat.

Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely try to set up Gianni Meersman again on stage 7. The Belgian sprinter doesn’t seem to be as fast as Matthews and Richeze right now but with a little bit of luck, Omega Pharma Quickstep may finally take a stage win.

I also have to mention Michael Mørkøv among the candidates after his impressive win on stage 6. The Danish Champion said he was sure he would win when he saw the finish line on the wheel of Cancellara. Obviously he’s in great shape right now. Usually, Mørkøv works hard for his teammates but after his win in Cáceres, I’m sure he will be eager to try again in Mairena Del Aljarafe.

The way I see it, there is 95 % chance of this stage ending in a bunch sprint. A break will definitely get away in the beginning but they know it’s almost doomed. It’s usually local riders and riders from the smaller teams who get into these kind of breakaways and as one of the semi-locals, look out for Luis Angel Maté. El Lince Andaluz is not afraid of attacking despite poor chances of succeeding and I’m sure we will see the Cofidis rider in a break soon. If not this Friday then definitely in the weekend.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 7, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

The peloton continues heading west and this stage should end up with another bunch sprint. Still, the 205.5 km includes four categorized climbs and if Cannondale and others set a high pace, some of pure sprinters may have troubles keeping up.

The Route

With the Pyrenees waiting in the weekend, the GC riders would welcome a quiet day in the saddle. The sprinters hope the same but a couple of hard climbs will make their day difficult. The first 50 km are flat but from here on the road starts to kick up. Col des 13 Vents is only a category 3 climb but its 6.9 km have an average gradient of 5.6 % and there is hard part of 8 % near the top.

After the descent, the peloton immediately starts on the next climb; Col de la Croix de Mounis. It’s the hardest climb of the day and the 6.7 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.5 %. The climb is very steep the first two kilometers and after a flat part near the top, it kicks up with over 10 %.

There are still 110 km from the top of Col de la Croix de Mounis to the finishing line in Albi. Many sprinters will be chasing the peloton at this point and most of them should be able to rejoin in time for the intermediate sprint in Viane. The next climb, Côte de la Quintaine, won’t bring the sprinters any problems and the final one, Côte de Teillet, isn’t steep either. The final 55 km are downhill and sets for a face finish. However, it doesn’t favor a breakaway much with headwind the final 35 km towards Albi.

The Finish

The final 6 km of Stage 7.

Thanks to the headwind, the peloton shouldn’t have problems bringing back a breakaway. There are three roundabouts to overcome just before entering Albi and from here on it’s pretty much straight out towards the line. Still, there is a tricky roundabout passing with 2.5 km to go and this will stretch out the peloton as the road gets smaller. That means it’s important to be well placed as the final part towards the line is very fast. You won’t win the sprint at this point but being in a poor position can very well end your chances of success.

The Favorites

Mark Cavendish missed out on Stage 6 after he crashed and had to waste a lot of energy getting back. Cavendish was furious after the stage and he’s usually good at using his rage to motivate him even more. On Stage 5 Cavendish showed that he has no problems coping with small hills and those in the final of Stage 6 shouldn’t trouble him. The category 2 climb is nasty but with over 100 km to go from the top, Omega Pharma Quickstep will have plenty of time to bring back Cavendish. This is not like on Corsica where the riders had to overcome tough climbs near the finishing line.

I’ve been talking about the importance of a good lead out train the last couple of days and there is no need to repeat all of it again. Lotto-Belisol showed how it’s done on Stage 6 and they will be eager to do it again on this stage. I still think Argos-Shimano have best train but I’m not sure how Marcel Kittel will get over the climbs. Instead I expect the Dutch team to change focus to John Degenkolb and that’s not improving their chances of a stage win. Peter Sagan will be there in the final, so will Edvald Boasson Hagen and if Cavendish and Greipel are there to, Degenkolb will simply be overmatched. The three top sprinters, Kittel, Cavendish and Greipel have now all won a stage and it’s only Peter Sagan of the big guns who’s still winless. Sagan won’t have problems on the climbs today and if the other sprinters don’t get back in time, he’s the man to beat.

The Jokers

I personally doubt a breakaway will make all the way but should it happen, look out for Juan-Antonio Flecha. The Spaniard was very active the first days on Corsica and after a few quiet days, his batteries are now re-charged. Flecha is not afraid of attacking - quite the opposite - and he’s fast on the line too. The headwind will make it difficult to keep the peloton at bay but should they miss-time it, Flecha seems like a good pick. Jens Voigt is another rider for these kind of stages. Radioshack have been unlucky the last couple of days with both Andreas Klöden and Haimar Zubeldia crashing and they could need a success story. Voigt has friends from Berlin visiting him on Stage 7 and why not show them the real Jens Voigt trademark with a strong attack?

Favorites: Mark Cavendish / Peter Sagan

Jokers: Juan-Antonio Flecha / Jens Voigt

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 7:

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 7 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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The Queen stage of the race with the royally difficult climb of Alpe d’Huez to start the day before a succession of climbs before the tough Col du Noyer and its ski station at Superdévoluy.

This stage can’t be seen in isolation as it both complements and contrasts with Sunday’s final mountain stage, a procession of steep and awkward climbs as compared to the final day which offers more regular ramps. In fact this stage is probably the last chance for a shake-up on the overall.

Stage 6 Wrap: a lot of the action happened before the TV started. When Froome was interviewed live after the stage they said “so it was a calm day for you” and he had to correct it. The race covered 50km in the first hour and the fierce pace continued over the tough Col de Barioz in part because Europcar were setting the pace, which seemed odd as they had no sprinter or lead to protect.

It was only when the TV images began that the race began to settle and a breakaway of riders started to thin over the tricky roads. By then the legs were tired and, as predicted, the roads across the plateau didn’t lend themselves to a chase. With 40km to go two minutes’ lead was enough.

As for the result: two Astana team mates in a breakaway of four and Thomas Voeckler wins? As said before the Frenchman is someone who, if he enters a revolving door behind you, comes out ahead of you. To be fair to Astana, neither Egor Silin or Kevin Seeldrayers can sprint and nor can Movistar’s José Herrada so what could they do against a rider nicknamed “Francis” by his team mates in a nod to his bar-brawling skills. By contrast back in 2004 a young Voeckler won the bunch sprint into Grenoble after Michael Rasmussen and Ivan Basso had riden away to finish over six minutes ahead.

The Route: 4,700m in just 187km make this a tough mountain stage. The start is in Pont de Claix, a suburb of Grenoble where tall chimneys of industrial chemical plants are shrunk by the giant Belledone and Chartreuse cliffs. A short section of flat road to Vizille and then up the Gorges de la Romanche, a pesky road that alternates between fast and steep ramps, there’s nowhere to hide from the start.

Alpe d’Huez shouldn’t need any introduction but it’s normally a “summit” finish only this time the race up to the Alpe… and then further up to cross the Col de Sarenne. Alpe d’Huez is so famous you probably know it has 21 hairpin bends and finishes in a big ski station. An an average of 8.6% for 12km it’s a tough climb and many could be dropped early.

The road climbs above the ski resort to tackle the little-known Col de Sarenne, albeit with some descending on the approach to the col and then 3.1km at 6.8%. Here the road is a total contrast, a road that’s part farm trail and far from the mechanical ski lifts, concrete hotels, in fact from from everything. The descent is immediate and rough, a narrow road cut into the cliff where schist-like rocks crumble onto the road. It’s steep and has some hairpins, there are fast sections but know where to tuck and where to brake matter. Riders have been visiting the road in advance of the Dauphiné and Tour and many have noticed the wild side of the Sarenne although the more you descent, the more regular it becomes.

The Col d’Ornon is next and suffers from its proximity to Alpe d’Huez, overshadowed by the reputation of the ski station access road. For this is a great climb, scenic and with plenty of variation as it twists up a narrow valley. 10.5km at 6.1% but it goes up in steps. The descent is much more gentle with wide hairpin bends. Then follows an awkward crossing of the Valbonnais, rolling terrain enclosed by mountains where a chase can be organised but at the cost of a lot of energy.

The Col du Noyer (“Walnut Tree Pass”) is hard with irregular gradients and a series of hairpin bends with stunning views of the valley below. The upper slopes are particularly steep. They’re followed a fast six kilometre descent.

The Finish: by now there will be many tired legs so even if this is a regular climb to the small ski-station of Superdévoluy it can do some damage.

The Scenario: time is running out for many to make an impression in the race. Lower down the pecking order, maybe it’s reductive but plenty of riders in the race are wondering about selection for the Tour de France so a move could convince their team and in turn boost their market value for a new contract. So we can expect fireworks on the first climb with many trying to go clear.

For more secure riders the penultimate climb of the Col du Noyer should be their launchpad. Wait too long and they’ll get run over by Team Sky’s mountain train and the steep slopes suit the pure climbers who can exploit this part to get away and perhaps gain a few places on the GC.

Richie Porte has no worries about job security and with Chris Froome already in yellow and a stage win to his name, what if Porte was “allowed” to ride away? If only it were so easy but Porte seems to have the form for this. If not then the finish could suit Dani Moreno of Katusha as well as thus far stealthy team mate Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde. Another Spaniard is exiled Daniel Navarro of Cofidis who is climbing well. Of course there’s Alberto Contador who could play a 1-2 with in-form Michael Rogers although if the Australian is riding very well and has several stage race wins to his name, a victory salute is a rare thing.

Superstition: the French revolution was a mass movement but like this stage, Grenoble and Vizille were on the route. Grenoble saw rioting workers hurl tiles from the rooftops to royal troops and soon after Vizille saw local dignitaries gather to call for improved democracy. Perhaps it’s time for a French revolution in the Dauphiné after Thomas Voeckler ran riot yesterday?

Weather: turning cooler and cloudier with the chance of a shower at altitude. Top temperature of 19°C but closer to 12°C at altitude. cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have the links to video streams if you can’t get it on TV.

TV: the same schedule as during the week, the stage finishes early at 2.45pm.

Top 20 Overall
1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 19:33:43
2 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:52
3 Rohan Dennis (Aus) Garmin-Sharp 0:00:54
4 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:01:37
5 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha 0:01:47
6 Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:49
7 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:52
8 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:01:58
9 Leopold Konig (Cze) Team NetApp-Endura 0:02:16
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team 0:02:20
11 Stef Clement (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:02:32
12 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team 0:02:47
13 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:02:49
14 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:03:12
15 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:24
16 Kevin Seeldraeyers (Bel) Astana Pro Team 0:03:30
17 Ben Hermans (Bel) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:37
18 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ 0:03:41
19 Matthew Busche (USA) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:46
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:04:01

Giro d’Italia: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

First of all, I’m glad to see my joker for Stage 6, Edwin Avila, not letting me down and taking 11^th place in the sprint. Impressive by the young Colombian!

Now let’s look at Stage 7. This stage has ’breakaway’ written all over it. The profiles looks like bread knife and this leg breaking stage will tire out many riders before the demanding time trial on Saturday. Bradley Wiggins will probably hope for a quiet stage but for guys like Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal, this is a good opportunity to gain a little time before the expected massacre against the clock.

Looking at the stage, the first two names I thought of was Giovanni Visconti and Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez. Visconti is an expert in these kind of stages and Rubiano knows these roads very well. Troffeo Matteotti starts and ends in Pescara and Rubiano has taking podium twice within the last three years. The Colombian climber spent most of Stage 6 as the very last man in the peloton, where he got some TV-time for amazing bike skills avoiding the big crash with 30 km to go. Visconti also found his way to the TV-cameras at that crash, but unfortunately for sitting on the ground with a sore hip. The former Italian Champion went to hospital after the stage and even though nothing is broken, he may find it too difficult to perform at this best level. That being said, if Giovanni Visconti is ready after his crash, he's one of the biggest favorites for this stage.

There are four KOM sprint within the last 50 km and it will be huge surprise if Stefano Pirazzi doesn’t try something on this stage. He’s in great shape right now, he’s targeting the KOM jersey and he’s not afraid of attacking at any point.

The steep parts of 20% around Chieti are known from Tirreno-Adriatico and Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali always do well here. There are still 35 km to go from the top of the last hills in Chieti, but the final two categorized climbs are very steep too - 18% and 14% - and if Hesjedal, Nibali and others want to gain time on Wiggins, this is where they have to attack.

I think the following list of riders will be good candidates for a morning breakaway. Especially Matteo Rabottini will be eager to show himself in his hometown Pescara. The time shows how many minutes they are after Luca Paolini in the GC:

Rabottini	08:56
Locatelli	09:09
Rubiano	09:19
Dupont	09:39
Pantano	10:26
Salerno	11:35
Marcato	14:15
Rodriguez	17:15
Georges	25:49
Pozzato	28:10
Gatto	32:56
Lastras	37:14
Taborre	37:39

Katusha will be eager to keep the Pink Jersey one more day and it’s not impossible that the morning break will get caught on the finals climbs - even though I doubt it if it includes strong riders. Should it end with a fight between the GC riders anyway,  look out for Cadel Evans and Mauro Santambrogio. I said in my Overall Preview that Cadel Evans would take a stage in this year’s Giro, and this could very well be that stage.

Also, look pay attention to Danilo Di Luca. The self-proclaimed “Killer” seems to be in good shape already and if it all comes back together, he’s definitely one the peloton can’t let get too much of a gap. Vini-Fantini have a team full of good riders for these kind of stages and they should be represented with strong riders in the front of the race at all time during this stage.

Thursday, I talked with team owner of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela and Giro Expert on this site last year, Gianni Savio about this stage and here are his thoughts:

“This year, the Giro d’Itlaia is different. Usually, the peloton lets the breaks get away and fight for the win, but with everybody wanting to gain seconds, it’s not happening this year. Anyway, we - like many others -want to attack on this stage. It’s a very difficult stage and we know it won’t be easy to get the stage win. There are many teams without a GC leader and they will all try to take a stage win. Our plan is to protect Pellizotti & Rosa and keep them in the front of the peloton and to attack with riders like Rubiano, Rodriguez and Felline.”

Favorite: Cadel Evans
Top3: Giovanni Visconti

Jokers: Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez / Stefano Pirazzi / Danilo Di Luca 

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 7:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 7 Preview

For the fourth day in a row, we will have a new rider in the blue leader’s jersey. Vincenzo Nibali attacked exactly where everybody expected him to do so, but still no one - except for Purito and Sagan - could keep up with him. Nibali now leads overall with 34 seconds down to Chris Froome and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win Tirreno-Adriatico for the second time in a row.

This time trial is the same as last year and I doubt even Chris Froome can take back more than half a minute on Vincenzo Nibali in just 9,2 km. Nibali has been working very hard on improving his time trial skills and with a new bike and new skin suit he could even end up surprising quite a few on this stage.

Purito is after two good stages now third overall. He is 11 seconds in front of Contador and 21 seconds in front of Kwiatkowski. Once again, his chances of reaching the final podium depend on his time trial. In January, he said he had improved a lot already and now is really the time to show it. It will be more than difficult to keep Contador - and especially Kwiatkowski - behind him but personally, I hope he will manage.

Only 4 corners to tackle during the 9,2 km.
Click for larger view.

Originally, I had Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin as my two big favorites for the stage, but both put in quite an effort on stage 6. Cancellara was in the morning break and Tony Martin took a big turn for Kwiatkowski in order to close the gap. Still, other candidates like Taylor Phinney and Svein Tuft aren’t in the race anymore, so I think we’re back to where we started. 

Tony Martin changed his race schedule (from Paris-Nice to Tirreno-Adriatico) in order to help his team win the opening TTT and then win this stage himself. He managed to win the first one and the chances are quite good he will to win this one too. 

Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom would have been two good jokers for this stage but since both of them were in the big break on stage 6, I’ll look to Movistar to find my jokers. Jonathan Castroviejo started out Tirreno-Adriatico with GC ambitions, but lost time in the last two stages. He is right now 14^th overall but without a chance of making top10. Castroviejo is an excellent time trialist and he’s especially good on these short distances. He will be one to look out for. The same goes for his teammate Alex Dowsett. He is the British national champion and without him, Movistar probably wouldn’t have taken second place in the opening team time trial. Normally we see surprises in the final time trial in a stage race and I think Alex Dowsett could be that surprise.

Winnerpick: Tony Martin

Jokers: Alex Dowsett & Jonathan Castroviejo

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Paris-Nice: Stage 7 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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A final time trial to settle the race. Can Richie Porte be beaten? As Greg Lemond said on the eve of the final stage of the 1989 Tour de France “if he has a bad day and I have a good day anything is possible”, and the American went on to beat Laurent Fignon by just eight seconds on the overall.

But that was a memorable exception. Porte is playing at home and the course is short so he should be safe. But still, who knows? What’s more certain is that the final podium places are unknown. Andrew Talansky, Lieuwe Westra, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Tejay van Garderen and more all all within reach.

The Route: the climb itself is part-technical, part obvious. There are no narrow parts, nor sharp bends but given it is just 9.6km, every second counts. The road climbs away from Nice on some steep sections and there is often a tailwind for the first two kilometres. Then the course begins to bend back towards the sea and level off before the midway section of 7% and then it continues on with spectacular views of the sea below. Each section of road matters: nowing when to change down a gear is important, knowing when to change up is even more important.

The Scenario: it’s hard to see past Richie Porte for the stage win. He won after dropping everyone else on the Montagne de Lure and is probably better against the clock then he is at climbing. He’s a local too, living in nearby Monaco and has been known to climb this road several times a day. In addition his team will know all about pacing the effort after Wiggins won last year and can measure themselves against the time checks of others if need be.

But as recounted earlier this week the mighty Eddy Merckx was so sure of winning one year that he posed for photos with the boat offered to the winner before riding the final stage… only for Raymond Poulidor to win the time trial and take the overall.

Andrew Talansky is the other obvious pick. He might be as strong as Porte, after all he felt so good he attacked three times on the Lure. Plus he’s got motivation to ride fast. He’s good at this effort too, last year he almost beat Wiggins in the uphill time trial of the Tour de Romandie. Talking of almost beating Wiggins, last year Westra almost won on the Col d’Eze so he could win in the absence of the Briton.

Van Garderen was an outside for the podium this time last year but fell back after losing over a minute to Wiggins and he’s not been the threat we’d thought he might be but he’s still sixth overall. Chavanel is in great form and did well on the Montagne de Lure, don’t be surprised if he’s amongst the fastest on the second half of the course but the early 8% gradient could be too much, plus his efforts yesterday won him the stage but also the points jersey thanks to an escape move to win the intermediate sprint. Jean-Christophe Péraud is having a good race and perpetuating Ag2r’s points-winning strategy of poaching UCI points without ever being too visible in front of the team cameras. He was third on this stage last year.

Mountains and Points: a note that Chavanel is guaranteed to stand on the podium as he’s got the points jersey competition sewed up.

The same for Johann Tschopp of IAM Cycling with the mountains jersey, giving the new Swiss team their first World Tour podium… and marginally boosting their chances of a wildcard invite for the Tour de France. Tschopp (say “chop”) is an often unknown character in the peloton but he’s a keen environmentalist, taking care to eat locally sourced foods and living as ethically as he can. He won the big stage of the Tour of Utah last year and in 2010, won the biggest mountain stage of the Giro that year, taking the prestigious Cima Coppi prize.

Weather: sunshine and showers with temperatures at no more than 14°C (57°F). Crucially the  wind will pick up in the afternoon with a breeze of 20km/h coming in from the sea in the afternoon, enough to make a noticeable tailwind, headwind and crosswind at different points on the course.

TV: 3.30 – 4.50pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv are the go-to sites for video streams.

History: the Col d’Eze was used as a final time trial for the first time in 1969 and Eddy Merckx won. It was a clever idea to use the uphill TT right at the end but prior to this the race had often been designed by another uphill time trial along the way, for example Mont Dore above Manosque, yesterday’s start town, in 1956.

Since 1969 it has been a regular feature of the race. But the starting and finish points have often changed meaning there is no definitive course record nor an easy way to compare today’s riders with Merckx. Not that the comparison is valid, riders will be using special bikes today with all the aerodynamic advantage possible. Merckx just rode on the drops.

The route now 9.6km and last year Bradley Wiggins clocked a time of 19.12.

Standings after Stage 6

Vuelta Preview - Stage 7

“But on the seventh day thou shalt rest”. The riders have been suffering from extreme temperatures in northern Spain the first six days of this Vuelta and even though this stage looks to be a sprint finish I wouldn’t be surprised if the peloton decides to take an early rest day and let a break fight it out.

There are no categorized climbs on the menu but since we are in Spain it’s safe to say that the riders will still be going up and down for most of the day. It’s another short stage, only 164 km, and once again temperatures around 35-40°c are expected on the way to the newly build MotorLand in Alcañiz.

John Degenkolb has been a level above the other sprinters in this Vuelta so far and I have to admit that my statement about Ben Swift being the fastest guy in the race doesn’t look good. Still, we haven’t seen Swifty and Degenkolb mano-a-mano so far. On Stage 2 Swift had to come from far behind and on Stage 5 he got boxed in after Bennati nearly made him and Davis crash when he opened his sprint. If Swift manages to position himself right I still believe he has what it takes to beat Degenkolb on the line. Therefore I’ll stick with him as my favorite if it comes to a sprint.

Final left-turn on the last km. Slightly uphill last 600 meters.

Still I have to say that it won’t be easy for the sprinters teams to keep it together. The fact that Degenkolb has been so superior in the first two bunch sprints means that it’s up to Argos-Shimano to catch the break and I honestly doubt they can do it alone. Katusha and Purito will be happy to give the jersey away - to rider out of the GC-fight - and save some energy for the coming battles.

It’s never easy to point out a single rider for a break on a stage like this one. Names like Philippe Gilbert, Alessandro Ballan and Jan Bakelants come to mind, plus how long can Euskaltel go without attacking? My joker for the stage is Lars Boom though. Boom comes with a fresh win from Eneco Tour and he knows how to hit the right breakaway. He has already won a stage in the Vuelta before and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lars Boom is the man giving Rabobank their first (and only?) win in this race.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Lars Boom

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Cameron Meyer

Explanation: The three best sprinters on the Tour de France all nailed a hat-trick of wins in July and so it makes perfect sense that the Vuelta's only decent sprinter achieves that feat in the opening week in Spain. Not only is the German youngster the fastest, his Argos Shimano train seems to be the best of a bad bunch. As such, a win for Degenkolb is entirely logical. That said, we have yet to see a break stay out on a flat stage so an escapee joker is on the cards. While it would make more sense to name someone from Andalucia or Caja Rural, I'm going to go for Cam Meyer. GreenEdge have been very active on the Vuelta and I expect that to continue. They need a plan B other than Allan Davis on the flat - and Meyer is now sufficiently low in GC not to warrant any alarm bells from the race favourites. If in the break he can use his track skills - a la Simon Clarke - to take the win. 

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 3 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 7

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Finally. After a week of sprinting it's time to test the climbing legs. Despite it being the first mountain stage of the Tour it's only categorized as a "hilly" stage, but don't be fooled. It's true there is only one steep climb on the menu, but that is also a very nasty one!

The 5,9 km up to La Planche des Belles Filles have an average of 8,5% with ramps of 11%, 13% and over 20% on the last steep part towards the finishing line. It's a tiny road with the cold mountain wall on one side and trees on the other and without many turns the riders constantly will be able to see each other up the road. Just when you think you've reached the top of the climb and it's flat for about 100 meters you turn right up in the sky hitting the steepest part of the climb with percentages up to 22%. The last 50 meters or so are flat. Not that it will change anything though.

Favorites:

The way I see it there are two scenarios:

1) A break of 6-10 riders gets a good gap and they end up fighting for the stage win while the favorites only focus on each other minutes behind.

2) A break gets away but teams like FDJ (Pinot), Lampre (Scarponi) & Cofidis (Moncoutie/Taaramae) aren't represented up front and start to chase in order to have a crack at in the final. Also Rabobank (Gesink, Mollema & Kruijswijk) could easily take responsibility and chase the break. All ending up with the favorites fighting it out for the stage win and the yellow jersey.

Personally I think the scenario #1 is most likely to happen. Everybody knows that the winner on La Planche des Belles Filles (almost certainly) will take the polka dot jersey (2x10 points) and because of that, we should see guys like Chris Anker Sørensen (+5 min), Johnny Hoogerland (+14 min), Daniel Martin (+19 min), Matt Lloyd (+20 min) & David Moncoutie (+20 min) try their luck. All 5 have said they are aiming for the polka dot jersey and this stage is definitely one they have red-circled from the beginning. Let's hope neither of them get too banged up on yesterday's carnage stage.

After Stage 5 Bjarne Riis said that the man for the weekend is Chris Anker Sørensen and knowing how much the Danish climber wants to show himself and get in the fight for jersey, I will be surprised not to see him up front if a good break gets away. Also David Moncoutie will be eager to get in the break. The final climb is quite similar to Mont Faron - one of Moncoutie's favorite climbs - and the steep parts really suit the French veteran. The weather forecast shows sunny conditions and that is very good news for David Moncoutie who likes it hot and dry.

Steep parts of 13% towards the line.

I mentioned FDJ and Pinot before and that's for a reason. Thibaut Pinot lives nearby and know the way up to La Planche des Belles Filles very well. He has been training a lot on it this year already and said that it is his big dream to win on this climb. 

Looking at the GC favorites this is truly a climb that favors the pure climbers. The ramps of 11%, 13% and 20% comes and go meaning that you constantly have to change the rhythm. Not exactly Bradley Wiggins' cup of tea. For Wiggins it's all about minimizing the gaps and make sure Team Sky set a pace so high no one is able to attack.


Before yesterday's stage I would picked Wout Poels and Pierre Rolland  as solid candidates for the win, but after Poels crashed and withdrew and Rolland crashed and hurt his shoulder and his back, I think I better drop those two again. Still if Rolland is ready, he could really take revenge on this steep climb!

Winner pick: David Moncoutie from a break or Pierre Rolland among the GC riders if he's ready again.

Joker: Thibaut Pinot


For pictures of the final climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles click her!

Bravo Tiralongo!

Tiralongo said that stage 7 of the Giro d'Italia
was good for him and a week later he won it!

Last year Paolo Tiralongo took his first career win when he won stage 19 of the Giro d’Italia and today he doubled that number by beating Michele Scarponi in the sprint and winning stage 7 on Rocca di Cambio.

Before the Giro start in Denmark I talked with Tiralongo (read here) and right before he took off with Astana for the team presentation he told me:

“There are many stages in this Giro that I like. Even the one in L’Aquila suits me well I think”.

And indeed it did. While everybody was expecting team leader Roman Kreuziger to participate in the sprint it was Paolo Tiralongo who went with Michele Scarponi and even managed to beat the fast Italian on the final meters.

One week after picking out this specific stage, Paolo Tiralongo actually won it - Bravo!

NB - Tiralongo actually also named tomorrow's stage to Lago Laceno as a good one for him...2 out of 2?

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 7

Gianni Savio explains: 

On this stage we will get the first photo of the Giro. We will not see who will win the Giro but we will see who won’t be able to win it. If you get dropped on the last climb you won’t win Giro d’Italia this year. It’s not so hard but it’s the first time the riders will go uphill for so many kilometers and all the favorites will be eager to stay in front. I hope Rujano will be a protagonist on this stage, but as I said it’s not super hard which he prefers. 

The favorites for the stage win must therefore be riders like Michele Scarponi and Damiano Cunego.