In total,
the race is 272.2 km long. The day starts in Lucca and from here; the riders
have 100 km to overcome before they reach Florence. There are two climbs on
this first part; Montecarlo (3.75 km / 3.5 %) and San Baronto (3.9 / 7.1 %).
These two climbs won’t make for a selection but especially San Baronto will
serve as an appetizer of what waits the riders later on.
When
reaching Florence the riders starts on 10 laps of 16.57 km. The first two
kilometers are flat but then the road kicks up. The Fiesole climb is 4.37 km
long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The gradients barely drop below 7 %
the last 1500 meters and this is where we find the steep parts of over 10 %.
There are 10 km to the line from the top of Fiesole. The descent starts out
very technical but then gets easier with nice and soft turns. However, there is
a very steep part and then a difficult 90° left turn with about 8.7 km to go.
If the rains, riders chasing to get back have to pay close attention to this
corner in order not to see their chances disappear in a crash.
The
following 2 km are fast very fast and after a sharp right hand turn, it’s time
to climb again. The 600 meters on Via Salviati have an average gradient of 10 %
and include a part of 200 meters with over 16 % towards the top. There are only
5 km to go from the top of Via Salviati and as the final part is very fast, it
won’t be easy to catch a small group of riders if they get a gap over the top.
With a less than 3 km to the line, the riders turn left and the following
150-200 meters are uphill with parts of 10 %. This may be the last place to
attack if you want to solo away. The road kicks up a little again as the rider
cross the railroad and after a 180° corner, the final 1500 meters are flat and
straight out towards the line.
Everybody
seems to have a different opinion on the best way to prepare for this World
Championship and which riders it favors. It’s hard to keep track but here is
some of the statements:
- You need to ride Vuelta España.
- This is a route for the climbers.
- You need to be fast.
- You need to be explosive on the climbs.
- Don’t count on the Vuelta riders, the last week was too hard.
- You need to be able to win on this kind of distance.
Confused? I
understand. It may not look like there is a rider who can tick off every single
criteria. However, there is one. More about him a little later.
First,
let’s look at the teams with the most responsibility this Sunday. Spain has the
strongest team (9 riders) with Contador, Purito and Valverde but home favorites
Italy (9) isn’t far behind with the likes of Scarponi, Ulissi and Nibali. The
Netherlands (Gesink, Mollema, Slagter), Switzerland (Cancellara, Albasini) and
Colombia (Quintana, Uran, Henao, Betancur) also have nine riders at the start.
So does France but I would be surprised to see them start working in the
peloton. The French riders have to be aggressive in the attacks and with Pinot,
Barguil and Voeckler they have enough firepower to put in a couple of strong
attacks on the final laps.
Peter Sagan
(Slovakia) has five teammates to help him, among these are the Velits brothers,
Peter and Martin, plus Sagan’s own brother Juraj. Sagan would like this race to
be as easy as possible and hope for a big group together on the final lap.
Therefore I doubt Slovakia will put much effort into chasing the breaks early
on. Last year’s winner, Philippe Gilbert and Belgium have seven riders at the
start this time and compared to last year, they will be more aggressive.
Gilbert needs a hard race with a big selection and if so, he will probably have
to attack on Via Salviati on the last lap and get away with a couple of riders.
This is his best chance of winning in Florence.
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| Profile of the circuit in Florence. 10 laps of 16.57 km. |
According
to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara is the number one favorite. The Swiss Time
Machine pays 3 to 1. It’s nothing new that Cancellara has a red circle around
the World Championship but usually it’s focused around the time trial. This
year, Fabian Cancellara has put everything into becoming World Champion in the
road race instead. He has lost some kilos and in the Vuelta España, he showed
to be in great shape on the climbs. As a warm-up
for the road race, Cancellara has done both the team time trial (last Sunday)
and the individual time trial (last Wednesday). Radioshack finished 4th
in the TTT while Cancellara took the bronze medal in the ITT, only two seconds
form second place. There is no doubt that Fabian Cancellara is in great shape
right now but is he strong enough to keep stay with the punchy climbers on Via
Salviati? Remember, in total this race has more than 60 km of climbing. It’s
not “just” a usually tough one day race, it’s a regular mountain stage. If
Cancellara has to fight his way back after both Fiesole and Via Salviati, how
much energy will he has left for the expected late attack in the final On the
other hand, the U23 winner Matej Mohoric said he didn’t think the course was that hard and makes Cancellara one of
the two big favorites.
The other
top favorite is Peter Sagan. Sagan usually don’t have any problems on these
kind of climbs and to make sure he doesn’t get dropped, he went to train hard
in the mountains earlier this season. It quickly paid off and in Tour de
Suisse, he actually won the mountain stage with the steepest climb in the race.
Peter Sagan does well in the short time trials, he can sprint and he can solo
away to win as well. It’s difficult to find any flaws but if there is one, it
may be the distance. Sagan is yet to win a race over 250 km and even though he
has come close a couple of times, it’s still one thing missing on his
impressive palmares.
The Spanish
duo Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez makes it hard to imagine
a final podium without a Spanish rider. Valverde is a true specialist in these
kind of one-day races and Purito too knows how prepare for a single day and
then deliver. Both have been on the podium in the past but neither has ever
won. This year both Valverde and Purito aimed at the Tour de France this
summer. Afterwards they started out the Vuelta with the intention of getting
ready for this Sunday. They finished 3rd and 4th overall
in the Vuelta and seem very strong at the moment. Especially, Purito finished
the Vuelta strong and I think he’s Spain’s best card to play. Few - if any -
can match Purito’s kick on the steep gradients and I would imagine he would try
to split the group on Via Salviati the last time. We saw in the U23 race that
Via Salviati creates a lot more damage than Fiesole and the steep gradients
really suits Purito who’s also good on the descent. Furthermore, Purito showed
in Giro di Lombardia last year, that he can win in the rain as well. Of course,
if it ends in a sprint of 10+ riders, Alejandro Valverde is the best option for
Spain and if Peter Sagan isn’t in the group, Valverde shouldn’t have problems
outsprinting the rest.
The last
one of the top favorites is Vincenzo Nibali. He’s riding on home soil in Italy
and naturally the expectations are high. Italy hasn’t be able to deliver since
2008 when the finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in
Varese. Now the World Championship is back in Italy and after Nibali won the
Giro d’Italia and finished second overall in the Vuelta, everybody expect
another top performance from the shark. To
help Nibali take the rainbow jersey, Italy sends strong riders like Michele
Scarponi, Rinaldo Nocentini, Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Diego
Ulissi. Italy’s big problem in the past has been too many captains, this time
it’s different. Pozzato and Scarponi are both in great shape but they have to
leave their big egos at home. Ulissi is double junior world champion and I have
no doubts he’ll win the elite’s race one day as well. Diego Ulissi is strong on
the climbs and fast on the line. However, he’s not very good on the descents
especially not if the roads are wet. Vincenzo Nibali needs to attack on Fiesole
and make an early selection, then he probably has to dig deep again on Via
Salviati and then attack on the descent as he has done in the past. Nibali
knows his only chance is to solo away and I’m sure he won’t think twice if he
sees an opening in the final.
As I wrote
earlier, there actually is one rider
fitting all the listed statement. This rider is Dan Martin. He started the
Vuelta, he didn’t ride the last week of the race, he’s a climber, he’s explosive,
he’s fast on the line and he has proven to be able to win on the long distance
(LBL this year). After crashing out of the Vuelta, Dan Martin took part in Tour
of Britain as his last preparation for the World Championship. He raced very
aggressively and showed on the climbs that he is still going very strong. So
far, 2013 has already been a great season for Dan Martin after winning
Liege-Bastogne-Liege and stage 9 of the Tour de France. He has been targeting
the Rainbow Jersey for a while and he has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking
from afar if necessary. I think the most likely scenario for this race, is a
small group of about five riders arriving at the finishing together. If Dan
Martin is in this group, he will be very difficult to beat.
Earlier
this year, Colombia seemed to have one of the most powerful teams for this
race. However, both Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur didn’t really deliver in
the Vuelta and it’s doubtful they will be able to perform - as previously
expected - this Sunday. Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran are still two very
strong outsiders but it won’t be easy for the Colombians to continue their
dominance this season. Nairo Quintana’s father is hoping to visit the Pope when
the race is over and naturally, it would be amazing for the humble climber to
join his parents with the Pope carrying the Rainbow Jersey. I don’t think it
will be happen though.
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| Map of the circuit in Florence. |
Before this
preview gets too long to read, let’s have a look at some of the jokers for the
win. My personal joker is Rui Costa. Like Dan Martin, Rui Costa has already had
a great season with the overall win in Tour de Suisse and two impressive stage
wins in Tour de France. The World Championship has been a big goal for Rui
Costa all season and the course really suits him. Portugal only has three
riders in the race but both Andre Cardoso and Tiago Machado are dedicated to
help Rui Costa win the Rainbow Jersey.
Another
strong outsider is Chris Froome. Not since Greg Lemond in 1989 has a Tour de
France winner went on to become World Champion. This year Froome has a unique
chance of doing so but he knows he requires a hard race with a big selection. In
the beginning of August, Chris Froome went to check out the course and train on
the roads. He did the Via Salviati climb 10 times and he knows what to expect.
After finishing the Tour, Froome immediately started talking about the World
Championship and after training hard in North America the last weeks, he now
seems ready. Like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome most likely has to solo away in
order to win this race but don’t forget he actually outsprinted both Contador
and Purito in Tour of Oman earlier this year.
For other
jokers look to in-shape Robert Gesink and Thomas Voeckler, one-day specialist
Alexandr Kolobnev and strong all-rounder Edvald Boasson Hagen. For the
super-super jokers I’ll like to mention season revelation Tanel Kangert, World
Champion specialist Matti Breschel and youngster Tom-Jelte Slagter who has a
good kick on the hills and is fast on the line.
For live coverage of the race go to steephill.tv
