Vuelta a España: Stage 21 Preview & Favorites

Chris Horner and Vincenzo Nibali gave us an amazing finish to this year’s Vuelta. Nibali attacked several times within the last 6 km but in the end, Horner went away and Nibali couldn’t respond. Valverde had problems in the beginning but he too recovered and secured his third place overall. Kenny Elissonde took a beautiful stage win after a long break and gave France their fourth stage win this race. That’s three more than they won in the Tour. Anyway, let’s take a look at the final stage.

The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s edition. Latest, Bauke Mollema took them by surprise when he attacked on the final kilometer of stage 17. However, I think it’s safe to say that this stage will end in a bunch sprint.

Despite a very tough course, we still have most of the starting sprinters left in the race. One of the most consistent ones is Max Richeze. The Argentinian has four Top3 places so far but he is still missing a stage win - so is his team Lampre and they will be very eager to finish this race in style. A tough final week has often seen an outsider winning in Madrid and that could very well be case again this time. The way I see it, Richeze and Edvald Bosson Hagen are the two big favorites. The Norwegian was clearly the strongest in the sprint when Mollema won but the finish in Madrid is not a typical Boasson Hagen sprint. A short and flat stage with a criterium finish is better suited for some of the track riders like Leigh Howard and Michael Mørkøv. However, I think it will be very difficult to beat Edvald Boasson Hagen in Madrid.

Map of the final laps in Madrid. Click for larger view.

GreenEdge has only four riders left but two of those, Howard and Michael Matthews, are very good candidates for the win. Matthews started out this race and the fastest man in the sprints and if he has been able to keep his speed during the last hard week, his chances are as good as Richeze's and Boasson Hagen's.

Team Argos-Shimano came to the Vuelta with a young team ready to fight in the bunch sprints. Their Vuelta has already been a success but not because of the sprints. This is not their usually sprint team and that shows. However, they are still eight riders left and in Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg they have two strong outsiders. Arndt is the youngest rider in the race. Barguil and Kenny Elissonde are the second and third youngest and they have both won a stage. It won’t be easy for Nikias Arndt to win as well but on a good day, he may be able to pull it off.

Tyler Farrar won the final stage of the Vuelta in 2010 when he outsprinted Mark Cavendish. A lot of things have happened since then and now Farrar is not even close to beat the best sprinters in the world. He is very consistent but it almost never gets better than 3^rd or 4^th place. Farrar is fast on the final meters and if only he could position himself better, he should be able to win. I doubt the American will take another win in Madrid but in this company - no offense to Richeze and EBH - Farrar simply has to be able to win. If not, he may as well just kiss his days as “top sprinter” goodbye.

Before the Vuelta started, Gianni Meerman seemed to be good for at least a couple of stage wins. However, the strong Belgian hasn’t won a single stage yet. This kind of sprint doesn’t really suit Meersman but this has been a tough Vuelta and it’s all about who has something extra left in the tank. Meersman has been doing well in the mountains but I was surprised not to see him in front group on stage 17. I wouldn’t count off Gianni Meersman but personally I doubt he will win this stage.

If you are looking for other good jokers for the stage win in Madrid look to riders like; Francesco Lasca, Robert Wagner, Adrien Petit, Tosh Van der Sande and Zakkari Dempster.

It’s difficult to pick a winner for this stage but if I had to pick one it would be Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For the last stage of this year's Vuelta, Laura picks Max Richeze to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

What an effort from Tony Martin on stage 6. Alone in front from the start to the end, well almost to the end. Fabian Cancellara got a jump on the Argos-Shimano train and performed a perfect leadout for Michael Mørkøv who won the stage. This is only the second professional win in Mørkøv’s career. The first one came in June earlier this year when he won the Danish Championship. Impressive.

Stage 7 is another flat stage and after missing out on Thursday, I’m sure the sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances. The peloton continues south into Andalucía and without a single categorized climb, this won’t be a difficult day in the saddle. The GC riders will have their mind fixed on tomorrow’s mountain stage and they will hope for a quiet day in the peloton.

Everybody managed to stay upright despite the technical finish on stage 6 and hopefully the same will happen Friday afternoon. Once again the race organizers have put in numerous obstacles on the final kilometers. Six roundabouts within the last three kilometers are what the riders have to overcome. The last one, turning right, is placed just 700 meters from the line. The road slightly bends to the left on the last 300 meters and first rider out of this bend most likely wins the stage.

It’s another technical finish but luckily the riders will have a chance to get to know it before it counts. There is an intermediate sprint on the finishing line with 31.4 km to go and knowing the route will hopefully keep everybody upright in the final.

Argos-Shimano almost managed to set up Ramon Sinkeldam perfectly on stage 6. Tony Martin’s strong effort made them take the lead a little too early and they paid for their work in the end. Sinkeldam was extra motivated to win on his wife’s birthday but despite great legs, he couldn’t do better than 15^th place. As I mentioned yesterday, this isn’t Argos-Shimano’s top leadout team. It’s a young team but they still show a lot of power taking the lead. I think it will be a “normal” bunch sprint on stage 7 and if they manage to set up Ramon Sinkeldam again, he could take the peloton by surprise.

The final 5 kilometers of stage 7. Click for larger view.

Like Argos-Shimano, also GreenEdge have a couple of strong guys for the sprints. Michael Matthews is obviously the fastest one right now but a flat sprint like this one is probably better for Leigh Howard. Matthews said that everything now is just a bonus but I’m sure the Australians are very eager to take another win. Matthews is now riding in the green points jersey and the despite the many mountains, this could be a goal for him. It won’t be easy but if GreenEdge decides to go for him in all the sprints, I can’t see why he shouldn’t win a handful more stages.

Max Richeze has been second the last two days in a row and he’s definitely one of the favorites for this stage. The Argentinian sprinter is getting better and better as the race goes on. He doesn’t have that final leadout rider to deliver him in the sprints but he’s very fast on the final meters. Richeze needs to get on the right wheel and he if manages so, he could very well end up winning this stage.

Tyler Farrar couldn’t to better than fourth place on stage 6 but to be fair, Farrar was very fast in the end. The American’s big problem is his positioning. Personally, I don’t understand why Garmin doesn’t wait until the end before taking the lead. Alex Rasmussen is a brilliant leadout rider and if Farrar enters the last bend on the wheel of Rasmussen, he will be extremely difficult to beat.

Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely try to set up Gianni Meersman again on stage 7. The Belgian sprinter doesn’t seem to be as fast as Matthews and Richeze right now but with a little bit of luck, Omega Pharma Quickstep may finally take a stage win.

I also have to mention Michael Mørkøv among the candidates after his impressive win on stage 6. The Danish Champion said he was sure he would win when he saw the finish line on the wheel of Cancellara. Obviously he’s in great shape right now. Usually, Mørkøv works hard for his teammates but after his win in Cáceres, I’m sure he will be eager to try again in Mairena Del Aljarafe.

The way I see it, there is 95 % chance of this stage ending in a bunch sprint. A break will definitely get away in the beginning but they know it’s almost doomed. It’s usually local riders and riders from the smaller teams who get into these kind of breakaways and as one of the semi-locals, look out for Luis Angel Maté. El Lince Andaluz is not afraid of attacking despite poor chances of succeeding and I’m sure we will see the Cofidis rider in a break soon. If not this Friday then definitely in the weekend.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 7, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv