Vuelta a España: Stage 21 Preview & Favorites

Chris Horner and Vincenzo Nibali gave us an amazing finish to this year’s Vuelta. Nibali attacked several times within the last 6 km but in the end, Horner went away and Nibali couldn’t respond. Valverde had problems in the beginning but he too recovered and secured his third place overall. Kenny Elissonde took a beautiful stage win after a long break and gave France their fourth stage win this race. That’s three more than they won in the Tour. Anyway, let’s take a look at the final stage.

The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s edition. Latest, Bauke Mollema took them by surprise when he attacked on the final kilometer of stage 17. However, I think it’s safe to say that this stage will end in a bunch sprint.

Despite a very tough course, we still have most of the starting sprinters left in the race. One of the most consistent ones is Max Richeze. The Argentinian has four Top3 places so far but he is still missing a stage win - so is his team Lampre and they will be very eager to finish this race in style. A tough final week has often seen an outsider winning in Madrid and that could very well be case again this time. The way I see it, Richeze and Edvald Bosson Hagen are the two big favorites. The Norwegian was clearly the strongest in the sprint when Mollema won but the finish in Madrid is not a typical Boasson Hagen sprint. A short and flat stage with a criterium finish is better suited for some of the track riders like Leigh Howard and Michael Mørkøv. However, I think it will be very difficult to beat Edvald Boasson Hagen in Madrid.

Map of the final laps in Madrid. Click for larger view.

GreenEdge has only four riders left but two of those, Howard and Michael Matthews, are very good candidates for the win. Matthews started out this race and the fastest man in the sprints and if he has been able to keep his speed during the last hard week, his chances are as good as Richeze's and Boasson Hagen's.

Team Argos-Shimano came to the Vuelta with a young team ready to fight in the bunch sprints. Their Vuelta has already been a success but not because of the sprints. This is not their usually sprint team and that shows. However, they are still eight riders left and in Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg they have two strong outsiders. Arndt is the youngest rider in the race. Barguil and Kenny Elissonde are the second and third youngest and they have both won a stage. It won’t be easy for Nikias Arndt to win as well but on a good day, he may be able to pull it off.

Tyler Farrar won the final stage of the Vuelta in 2010 when he outsprinted Mark Cavendish. A lot of things have happened since then and now Farrar is not even close to beat the best sprinters in the world. He is very consistent but it almost never gets better than 3^rd or 4^th place. Farrar is fast on the final meters and if only he could position himself better, he should be able to win. I doubt the American will take another win in Madrid but in this company - no offense to Richeze and EBH - Farrar simply has to be able to win. If not, he may as well just kiss his days as “top sprinter” goodbye.

Before the Vuelta started, Gianni Meerman seemed to be good for at least a couple of stage wins. However, the strong Belgian hasn’t won a single stage yet. This kind of sprint doesn’t really suit Meersman but this has been a tough Vuelta and it’s all about who has something extra left in the tank. Meersman has been doing well in the mountains but I was surprised not to see him in front group on stage 17. I wouldn’t count off Gianni Meersman but personally I doubt he will win this stage.

If you are looking for other good jokers for the stage win in Madrid look to riders like; Francesco Lasca, Robert Wagner, Adrien Petit, Tosh Van der Sande and Zakkari Dempster.

It’s difficult to pick a winner for this stage but if I had to pick one it would be Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For the last stage of this year's Vuelta, Laura picks Max Richeze to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a stage for the sprinters - or so it seems. In fact, the final 10 km are very demanding with a steep hill and a tricky descent. More on the later.

The day starts in Calahorra and finish in Burgos after 189 km in the saddle. Without being completely flat, this isn’t a very hilly stage either. The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s Vuelta and their teams will be eager to control the race. The first 100 km take place in head- and crosswind and we shouldn’t see a breakaway get too much of a gap.  After 109.8 km it’s time for the first categorized climb of the day, Alto de Pradilla. It’s a category 3 climb and the 6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.4 %.

The next climb, Alto de Valmala, starts after 133.5 km and from its top there are 50 km to the finishing line. The last intermediate sprint comes with 36 km to go and from here, the riders will be able to enjoy a strong tailwind towards Burgos. On paper, the final 10 km don’t look very tough but if you haven’t done your homework, you will be in for a big surprise!

With about 10 km to go, the riders turn right - away from the big road - up the little Calle Eras de San Francisco. The following 1.2 km are uphill and especially the first part is steep. While the riders won’t be able to admire it, the TV-viewers will have a beautiful view over Burgos on the way towards the top of the hill. From here, it’s downhill for about 450 meter before the road kicks up again for 200 meters. The following 800 meters downhill are very technical and on narrow roads. The peloton will be stretch out significantly on this part, and it’s doubtful all the sprinters will make it back to the front in time.

The final 5 km are straight out with a few up and down parts. There is now cross- and headwind towards the line and it won’t be easy for a lonely rider to keep the peloton behind him. However, if the sprinters aren’t back in the peloton, it may be very difficult organizing the chase.

The final 14 km of stage 17. Many things to pay attention to!
Click for larger view.

We haven’t seen a regular mass sprint since Michael Matthews won Stage 5 and the chances are good that we won’t get one this time either. Usually Philippe Gilbert, Luis León Sanchez and Simon Gerrans would be excellent winner candidates for a finish like this one. However, they are all out of the race and instead we should probably look to opportunistic riders like Juan Antonio Flecha, Fabian Cancellara, Luca Paolini and Rinaldo Nocentini for a late attack on the hill.

Especially Fabian Cancellara is extremely strong right now and if he gets away on the descent, I doubt the peloton will see him again until after they cross the finishing line. The same goes for a rider like Samuel Sanchez. He’s getting better and better but he still isn’t able to beat the best climbers uphill. Sanchez knows how to attack on the final kilometers and keep the peloton behind him and he’s very eager to give Euskaltel their first stage win in the their last Vuelta a España.

In case it all gets back together in time for the final sprint, it should come down to a battle between Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews. In theory, any of them should have problems on the 1.2 km climb but it all depends on how fast the peloton is going. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another very good candidate for the stage win. He came close when Gilbert won and he’s been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway the last couple of days. The strong Norwegian is obviously in great shape and I would be surprised not to see him fight for the win in Burgos.

If you are looking for a super joker, look to Anthony Roux. He’s very fast on the line, especially in a reduced peloton, and he’s been doing very well the last two days in the Pyrenees. He may not be able to beat the big sprinters in a regular bunch sprint but with a finish like this one, he should be in the mix.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 17, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

Philippe Gilbert finally got his first win in his Rainbow Jersey when he won stage 12 of the Vuelta. Just like last year when he arrived winless at the Vuelta. Back then, Gilbert went on to win another stage in the race and I think he may just make it two in a row. More on that later.

Stage 13 comes on a Friday and like in the Tour earlier this year, this unlucky combination may cause carnage. In July, Belkin and Saxo-Tinkoff split up the peloton in the crosswind and due to a bike problem; Alejandro Valverde ended losing his race that day. Despite riding alongside the coastline the last 15 km, the wind shouldn’t be a problem on this stage However, the steep Alto del Rat Penat will make sure, nobody arrives to final with fresh legs.

Alto del Rat Penat comes after 114.8 km and even though this category 1 climb is only 4.3 km long, its average (!) gradient of 10.6 % will definitely stretch out and split up the peloton. The following descent is very technical and on small roads, it won’t be easy to get to the front if you’re already dropped on the climb. However, it won’t be easy to keep the peloton behind you either, should you attack on the climb. The final 15 km next to beach are flat and we can expect the peloton to set a high pace at this point. It’s a short stage of only 169 km and that means it will be fast stage as well. Many of the usual sprinters will be dropped and even those remaining won’t have it easy.

Alto del Rat Penat. 4.3 km / avg. 10.6 %

With 3 km to go, the riders turn left, away from the beach. From here, they continue straight out for about two kilometers. The final kilometer includes a couple of turns and with 500 meters to go, the peloton have to overcome a rather large roundabout. Coming out of the roundabout, he final 400 meters are uphill and especially the final 150 meters are steep. It’s very important to have something left in the legs for this final part. It’s not as steep as Alto del Rat Penat but it’s enough to make a significant selection.  

Philippe Gilbert timed his sprint perfectly on stage 12 and knew he was the best in the uphill sprint. He didn’t panic when Edvald Boasson Hagen got a bug gap early and that shows that Gilbert mentally is very strong too. He hasn’t won a single bike race since he won the World Championship last year and it takes a lot to cope with that pressure. This final is perfect for Gilbert and I’m convinced BMC will do whatever they can to control the race in the final.

The biggest threat to Gilbert is, the way I see it, Dani Moreno. The strong Spaniard has already won two stages in this year’s Vuelta and a win here, will also extend his lead in the points classification. It may not be his primary target in the race but if Katusha can’t put a rider on the final podium, at least they can take the Green Jersey. Dani Moreno forgot to eat the other day, when Horner won the stage, but he still seems to be in outstanding shape. Thursday, Moreno turned 32 and a win in Castelldefels would be a great birthday present for the strong Katusha rider.

Another Katusha rider who will be extra motivated is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Stage 13 starts in Valls, the hometown of the late Xavi Tondo. The Spanish rider tragically died on May 23, 2011 while getting ready for training ride. Purito was a good friend of Tondo and last year, he won stage 17 of the Giro d’Italia on the day marking Tondo’s death. It won’t be easy for Purito to win the stage and dedicate it to his late friend but together with Dani Moreno, it’s not impossible.

Michael Matthews punctured with 5 km to go on stage 12 and didn’t get a chance to take part in the sprint. The uphill finish on stage 12 probably suited Matthews more than the one on stage 13 will do but the former U23 World Champion seems to be in great shape. Matthews has been killing the competition on the steep finish in Stirling, in Tour Down Under, two years in a row (2011 & 2012) and on a good day, he’s up there fighting with Gilbert and Moreno for the stage win.

Other strong candidates for the stage win are riders like Alejandro Valverde, Gianni Meersman, Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sanchez, Rinaldo Nocentini and Edvald Boasson Hagen. On paper, this finish is also perfect for Simon Gerrans. However, the Australian doesn’t seem to be 100 % after his crash earlier in this race. Of course, if Gerrans is ready to fight, he is one of the favorites for this stage.

Juan Antonio Flecha is another good outsider. Vacansoleil-DCM is without sprinters at the moment since Barry Markus is out of the race and Grega Bole is fighting a respiratory infection. Flecha is in great shape right now and he’s constantly near the front in the final. In addition, with 22 km to go, the peloton passes through Sitges where Flecha moved to from Argentina at the age of 11. Flecha is now living in today's finish town Castelldefels. It won’t be easy for the Spaniard to outsprint the fast guys but if he can get a little gap, he may be able to take a big win on home soil. One thing is for sure; Flecha will be extremely motivated!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 13, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Juan Antonio Flecha to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

Fabian Cancellara confirmed his great condition by beating Tony Martin against the clock for the first time a couple of years. As expected, his teammate Chris Horner lost the Red Jersey, which is now back on the shoulders of Vincenzo Nilbali. A wasp stung the Astana captain the evening before the time trial but Nibali showed that a wasp can’t take out of shark.

Vincenzo Nibali will have no problems keeping the Red Jersey on Stage 12. This is a day for the sprinters and after missing out on the last two occasions, their teams will be extra motivated to control the race. The first part of the 164.2 km from Maella to Tarragona is up and down most of the time. The riders will be battling cross- and headwind all day long and I don’t expect a breakaway to get much of a gap. The sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances and the strong, opportunistic riders know they may have a better chance on stage 13.

There is a single categorized climb on today’s stage. Alto del Collet starts after 83 km and the 7.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of just 3.6 %. From the top, there are 73.7 km to go and this is definitely the easiest part of the route.

It sounds like a broken record but once again, the race organizers have created a tricky and difficult final. The peloton will be heading towards Tarragona in high speed and a couple of sharp corners will test the riders’ ability to stay upright. With 3 km to go, the peloton turns left and rides next to see beachfront. The following kilometer is flat and we can expect Argos-Shimano and GreenEdge to set a high pace. However, after crossing the 2 km to go-port, the road starts to kick. Not much but enough to tire out the leadout teams. An uphill U-turn and a couple of 90° turns will serve as good place to attack if the sprinters’ teams can’t keep it together.

Map of the final 5 kilometers of Stage 12. The road starts to kick up with 2 km to go. The final kilometer is flat.

The final kilometer is flat but not without danger. Right after crossing flame rouge, there is a sharp left-hand turn and with 300 meters to go, the riders have to cross a roundabout in high speed. The ideal scenario is to enter this roundabout in second position with a single leadout rider in front of you. If you are not among the first three riders here, you won’t win this stage.

The last two bunch sprint stages have been extremely chaotic. Tony Martin almost kept the peloton at bay in the first one and the day after, Philippe Gilbert and Zdenek Stybar manage to hold off the pack with a late attack. The uphill kilometer in the end doesn’t favor the sprinters but I think they will keep it together this time. The way I see it, Michael Matthews is still the fastest rider in this bike race. GreenEdge have been saving their riders the last two days, thinking about this stage and among the remaining sprinters, I can’t see who should beat Matthews in a clean sprint.

Gianni Meersman is fast too but I don’t think he can match Matthews’ speed right now. Meersman usually positions himself very well but without a leadout, I doubt he will do better than top3. Max Richeze has been very strong so far in his Vuelta. He has already finished second twice and if anybody is able to beat Michael Matthews, it may be Lampre’s Argentinian sprinter. Richeze is very fast on the final meters but he needs to enter that last roundabout among the first three riders. Alone against the leadout trains, that’s a tall order.

Tyler Farrar deserves to be mentioned as well but the American sprinter is much better at making top3 than at winning bike races. Farrar is very consistent but he lacks that extra edge. It would be a mistake to count him out in this field but it will also be a bit surprising to see him win in Tarragona.

Argos-Shimano hasn’t been able to control the race as well as they have done earlier this season. They bring a very young team to the Vuelta and their inexperience shows. However, the team is still strong and with riders like Nikias Arndt, Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam they should be able to do a great leadout. Sinkeldam is very fast and if Arndt and Janse van Resnburg can keep the speed high and make sure they enter that last roundabout in front, Sinkeldam may surprise a few. I doubt he can outsprint Michael Matthews but I think he will put up a good fight.

Another interesting rider for this stage is Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky has been very anonymous so far in the race and without anybody able to fight for the overall win, they may change their focus to the sprints. Boasson Hagen doesn’t need a leadout and he knows how to position himself well in the final. The uphill kilometer towards flame rouge favors the strong Norwegian and if he’s not scared of doing the sprints - after getting back from an injury - he should be able to fight for the win.

Riders like Juan-Antonio Flecha and Philippe Gilbert are never afraid of attacking and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them trying a late attack on the uphill part in the final. The many twist and turns don’t favor the peloton but it won’t be easy to stay away. Instead, Friday’s stage 13 looks a lot better for Gilbert and the other puncheurs. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 12, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After missing out on stage 4, Michael Matthews did a perfect sprint to win stage 5. GreenEdge worked all day in front of the peloton all day long and in the sprint, nobody came close to the young Australian. Garmin tried to set up Tyler Farrar but they will soon have to realize that Farrar’s day as a top sprinter seems to be over.

Stage 6 is the second of three days in a row made for the fast guys and we can expect another bunch sprint. The stage starts out in Guijuelo and the riders will be able to enjoy a slight tailwind all the 174 km south towards Cáceres. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu and even though it’s not flat either, it’s definitely not as hard as the last two days.

With 7 km to go, the road starts to kick up a little but only 2.5 %. It won’t make for a selection in the peloton but the technical final four kilometer may do. Are no less than six difficult turns within the last four kilometers and of course a handful of roundabouts to overcome as well. This being the Vuelta and everything, of course the final turn comes just 400 meters from the line. Heading into a roundabout the peloton goes the long around instead of just turning left. This will really stretch out the peloton. If you enter this roundabout in second or third position, you have a very good chance of winning the stage.

Michael Matthews has been the fastest of the sprinters the last two days and he’s morale is now sky high. Originally GreenEdge had Leigh Howard down for this stage but it doesn't really make sense not to go for Matthews again. He’s obviously the fastest right now. Then again, the team spirit on GreenEdge is amazing and thinking about it, it wouldn’t actually surprise me to see Matthews leading out Howard to win.

Gianni Meersman tried to pass Matthews in the final of stage 5 but he didn’t even come close. I think it will be very difficult for Meersman to win this stage and it wouldn’t surprise me if Omega Pharma Quickstep gave youngster Andy Fenn a chance.

The final four kilometers. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano is right now the best sprint team in the world. They have finally perfected their leadouts and again on stage 5 they tried to make a surprise. They have a young team for this Vuelta and you don’t see any of the regular Tour de France riders among the nine starters. However, they still managed to hit the front with 5 riders on the final kilometers. Nikias Arndt was the man for stage 5 but it’s not necessarily him they will be going for every day. Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam are also very fast on the line.

Lampre’s Maximiliano Ariel Richeze is another fast rider in great shape right now. He wasn’t on top of his game in Eneco Tour but he still managed to finish 2^nd and 4^th in the sprints. This Vuelta is Richeze’s first Grand Tour since he did the Giro d’Italia in 2007 and he’s super motivated to do well. The Argentinian had to fight hard to get on Matthews wheel in the final of stage 5 and with a little bit more luck he might have been able to get closer. It won’t be easy for Richeze to win stage 6 but I think we will see the him in top3 again.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has finished 6^th the last two days in a row. The Norwegian rider was a bit disappointed with his sprint on stage 5 and he will be very motivated to do better this time. Boasson Hagen seems to be getting stronger every day and without any top sprinters in the peloton, he may give Team Sky their first win in this Vuelta Thursday afternoon.

Last of the outsiders for the win in Cáceres is also the rider finishing last on stage 5. Barry Markus is only 22 years old but he  hasalready been close to beating some of the big sprinters. In Tour of Qatar he finished 2^nd after Mark Cavendish twice and after coming back from his injury, Markus took 2^nd place on stage 1 of Arctic Race of Norway earlier this month. Vacansoleil-DCM has been setting up Grega Bole the last two days but with a more flat stage, it’s now time for the fast Dutchman.

As of Wednesday evening the weather forecast shows 50 % chance of rain for the final. Hopefully the roads will stay dry. If not, it seems unlikely nobody will crash on the last four kilometers.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 6, Laura picks Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

On stage 2, Dani Moreno waited too long when Nicolas Roche attacked. That mistake cost him the stage win. Tuesday afternoon, Moreno took no chances when he attacked from afar and managed to keep Fabian Cancellara and the rest of the peloton behind him. Cancellara’s strong effort probably made the gap among the favorites, which made Chris Horner lose the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali. However, the American doesn’t seem too upset over losing the jersey. “It’s ok for now. I will use my good legs to get it back”, he says.

Astana shouldn’t have problems keeping the jersey on Stage 5 even though it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. There are only two categorized climb on profile but the 174.3 km from Sober to Lago de Sanabria include numerous hills. Officially, the first climb Alto do Covelo doesn’t start until after 68.6 km. However, at this point the road has already been going uphill for the past 11 km.

With 42.3 km to go, the final categorized climb of the day begins. Alto de Padornelo is 11 km long but with an average of just 2.6 % it won’t make for a huge selection in peloton. It gets steeper towards the top but strong sprinters like Gianni Meersman, Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t have problems staying in front.

Coming down from Alto de Padornelo the final 20 km may look flat but don’t be fooled. We are in Spain and that means you shouldn’t trust the road book when it comes to “flat” parts. The last 10 km are constantly up and down and there is a part of 1.5 km with an average gradient of 4.3 % as the peloton enters Cubelo with 6 km to go. A tailwind will help the riders keep a high pace the final 5 km and without any sharp corners; it will be a fast finish. However, this is the Vuelta and it can’t surprise anybody that the race organizers have put in a 90° corner with just 600 meters to go. This will stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point. Preferably with two teammates in front of you.

Dani Moreno took the peloton by surprise on stage 4 but with a flat finish, guys like Meersman, Matthews and Boasson Hagen should be able to fight for the win. It’s a tough day and I’m not quite sure the pure sprinters will manage to stay in the peloton. The joker picks for a sprint are the same as those for stage 4. Meaning riders like Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Grega Bole and Anthony Roux.

There is a good chance of this stage finishing in a bunch sprint but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a breakaway making it all the way. It could be the morning breakaway and it could be a late breakaway on Alto de Padornelo. Vincenzo Nibali is not interested in losing the Red Jersey again so we have to look to riders already out of the GC for possible breakaway candidates.

Amets Txurruka is 4:33 min behind in the overall classification and the Basque rider is a true breakaway specialist. Txurruka is in great shape right now and has already tried to breakaway twice within the last couple of days. Another strong rider down the GC who is in good shape is Juan Antonio Flecha. He has attacked on the last kilometers the last two days in a row but without success. Flecha is obviously going strong right now but maybe he’ll have more luck with an attack from afar.

The TV-viewers have been spoiled with images of the beautiful scenery in Galicia and with the finish line next to Lago de Sanabria, this will be another spectacular stage to watch. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 5, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and picks Thomas de Gendt to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Paris-Roubaix: Preview and Favorites

Last year, Fabian Cancellara crashed out of Ronde van Vlaanderen and saw Tom Boonen winning both RvV and Paris-Roubaix. This year, Boonen crashed out of RvV while Fabian Cancellara won the race. Cancellara has been outstanding the last couple of weeks and there is really only one favorite for Paris-Roubaix this year.

Unfortunately, Fabian Cancellara saw the need to spin the legs in Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. He crashed in the race and so did he again the next day, while checking out the cobblesstone sections for Sunday. Two crashes in two days and suddenly Cancellara is not the massive favorite he was as after winning Ronde van Vlaanderen. He is still the favorite, but strong riders like Thor Hushovd, Taylor Phinney, Juan-Antonio Flecha, Ian Stannard, Edvald Boasson Hagen etc. are now more likely to win than they were just a few days ago.

I would imagine Radioshack to take control like they did last Sunday but they have to be careful. BMC and Team Sky have two very strong teams with multiple winner candidates and Radioshack can’t close all gaps by themselves. In the end it will be up to Fabian Cancellara himself to take action and if he still feels the recent crashes, he won’t be as unbeatable has he looked in Ronde van Vlaanderen. I still think Cancellara will win Paris-Roubaix, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a BMC or Team Sky rider crosses the line first on the velodrome.

I have a feeling Taylor Phinney will end on the podium. Last year, all he was thinking about was the Giro d’Italia prologue and he absolutely killed it. This winter has been all about peaking in Paris-Roubaix for Taylor Phinney and even though it won’t be as “easy” as winning the Giro prologue, the young American knows how to perform under his own pressure. Phinney has been naming Thor Hushovd as BMC’s designated team leader numerous times the last couple of weeks, but I personally think, Phinney will end as best BMC rider on Sunday. He’s incredibly strong on the cobblestones and very fast on the line. If Taylor Phinney arrives to the velodrome in the first group, I think he will win this race.

Paris-Roubaix is also the last chance for Team Sky to prove their untraditional Classics training was a good idea. It’s easy to criticize them, but we must remember that Geraint Thomas crashes in both Milano-San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen. In Milano-San Remo, Ian Stannard took over and did a great race and last Sunday, Edvald Boasson Hagen almost got on Sagan’s wheel when he and Cancellara went away in the final. EBH couldn’t stay with the strong duo on Kwaremont, but I think he will be better on the cobblestones. Like Phinney, Boasson Hagen is very fast on the line and I expect him to be among the best riders on Sunday.

Like always, I’ll like to point out a joker. This time it’s Matthieu Ladagnous. The big Frenchman has been very strong so far this season and the last couple of week he’s been near the front at all time. He was in the winning break with Sagan in Gent-Wevelgem (ended 6^th) and he took 2^nd place in the sprint behind the podium in Ronde van Vlaanderen last Sunday. Ladagnous finished 12^th in Paris-Roubaix last year and he is very eager to do even better this year. He probably won’t win this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s among the riders fighting for a spot on the podium.

For other strong riders with a fast finish, look to Lars Boom, Sébastien Turgot, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Jurgen Roelandts.

Winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Podium picks: Taylor Phinney / Edvald Boasson Hagen

Joker: Matthieu Ladagnous

For live coverage of this year's Paris-Roubaix go to steephill.tv

Tour Preview - Stage 1

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If you thought this was a stage for the sprinters you better modify your fantasy team. Looking at the official profile from LeTour the last 2,5 km have a part of 1,4 km with 5,8% average. But again, don’t be fooled. The average percentages of the 1400 meters may be 5,8% but 700 meters of those are around 15% up to Côte du Bois Hézalles!

On the top of the hill the riders turn left on a cobblestone section which for sure will get many riders to explode after being in red for the past 700 meters uphill. After turning right on Avenue de Centenaire it’s straight out home to the finishing line. Average of 2% - give or take.

Favorites:
This last hard part means that you won’t see sprinters like Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel in the final, but more the sort of fast guys like Peter Sagan, Phillipe Gilbert, Edvald Boasson Hagen and maybe even Matthew Goss. Sagan will be extra motivated after he lost his chances for yellow on the prologue while Phillipe Gilbert did a great prologue and now is in a good position to take the yellow jersey on home soil in Belgium.

The steep part on Côte du Bois Hézalles
Click for larger view!

At Team Sky the man for the stage is ‘Eddie the Boss’, but it will be very interesting to see how Mark Cavendish tackles the steep part after losing four kilos before the season. Cavendish had to lose weight in order to get up over the hills with the best in the Olympic Road Race and even though these 15% may be too much for him, I’m sure the World Champion won’t just sit up and take it easy.

Another guy who’s riding on home soil is the young Vacansoleil-DCM climber Wout Poels and he showed last year, in the Vuelta España, that he can be very dangerous in a final like this one. Look out for him!

My pick: Peter Sagan to win Stage 1.

Weather:
With only 10% chance of rain we should be in for another sunny day with the riders enjoying a bit of tail wind on the last 80 km back towards Liège. Let’s hope we won’t see any crashes like last year. It would be great if all the favorites made it to the mountains this time…

Photo © Laura Meseguer

Interview - Alexander Kristoff (Rider, BMC)

Alexander Kristoff is yet another future top rider coming out of Norway these years. His speed and characteristics gives him the perfect opportunities to become the next Norwegian top sprinter in the peloton. Coming from Joker - Bianchi to BMC this season, he will now join forces with Denis Galimzyanov at Katusha next year as a very strong and fast duo for the mass sprints.

Alexander. To start out, how will you describe your season this year?
I had an OK season. I was hoping to win some races this year and I only won 1 race (Nationals) so if you look at it that way it was not that successful. But feel I have grown as a rider since last year. I finished my first Grand Tour and got better results than last year with more top 5 results through the year.

Compared to last year, what has changed this year? Can you feel the improvement?
Generally, I feel stronger. I know a little bit more about how to work as a professional and how I can prepare myself better before the races.

In your opinion, what has been your best race this year?
It is always a good feeling to win so I have to say that my National Championship victory is the best this year. I also had a good period after my summer training with a 2nd and 3rd place in Tour de Wallonie followed by a 2nd place in Tour de Pologne.

You came very close to top3 spot on the Giro stage Gatto won, when Petacchi overtook you with a few centimeters. How will you describe your first Grand Tour experience?
It was a good experience when I look back. When I was there in the middle of all the mountains it was not very pleasant though. It was incredible hard! One day I had a total of 9 hours ride time with neutral and riding back to the bus. But I got some okay results in my first Grand Tour like that 4th place. You can always hope for more and if I had had a little bit of luck, maybe I would have ended 2nd on that stage, but that’s cycling.

When BMC announced the signing of Thor Hushovd, it only took you 10 days to announce your move to Katusha. Did the signing of Hushovd, as sprinter, have anything to do with your change of team?
No. I got the message from BMC, that I had to look for another team, right after the Giro, before I knew that Thor was coming to the team. It was nice of BMC to give me this message so early. That gave me the opportunity to start looking for other teams early on, and then it wasn’t a problem to find a new one. It would have been worse if I thought I could stay and then got the same message in September.

At BMC you were the main sprinter, but at Katusha they already have Galimzyanov. What will your role be at the Russian team?
I will have a meeting with Katusha in some days to figure out my calendar for next season. But I want to do one Grand Tour and some classics like Milano - San Remo. I will of course have to work with Galimzyanov and I look forward to help him in sprints - I think I can learn a lot from him. I also got signals from Katusha that they want to work with me as a sprinter and I will probably get my chances in other races where Galimzyanov is not racing or if he’s not in shape.

Is there a specific race on the 2012 calendar that you dream of winning?
When I was a kid I was dreaming about winning a stage in Tour de France, but to be more realistic I hope of winning more than one race next year. Maybe I can win a race like Vattenfall Classic, I have done this race 2 years now and I always felt good there. I will try to work hard this winter and be more prepared for the season opening, since I normally have a little bit of troubles getting started.

Despite only having a handful of riders in the peloton, Norway seems to produce one top sprinter after the other. What do you think the secret of this impressive tendency is?
Maybe, it’s how we are build or how we train. I am not sure, but it’s a fact that we have fast guys. This year we where 6 pro-riders and 3 of them are “sprinters” even though I have to say that Thor and Edvald are more than sprinters, they win many types of races.

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 16

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Thomas Löfkvist : Edvald Boasson Hagen

Mauro Gianetti : Philippe Gilbert

David Etxebarria : Philippe Gilbert

Laura Meseguer : José Joaquin Rojas

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Bookmaker's favorite : Philippe Gilbert

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 10

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Thomas Löfkvist : Alessandro Petacchi

Mauro Gianetti : Mark Cavendish

David Etxebarria : Jerome Pineau

Laura Meseguer :  Edvald Boasson Hagen

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Bookmaker's favorite : Mark Cavendish