Vuelta a España: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

I’ve pumping up Vasil Kiryienka’s chances of making it all the way from a breakaway the last couple of days and Thursday afternoon, he finally did. Kiryienka went solo with 45 km to go and managed to keep everybody behind him. Chris Horner showed he is still the strongest uphill when he climbed Peña Cabarga about 40 seconds faster than Juanjo Cobo did in 2011. Cobo won the Vuelta that year and right now, it seems like Horner will win this year’s edition.

Stage 19 is another one for a breakaway. The GC riders are focusing on Angliru and I doubt they want to use up their teams already. That being said, if Valverde or Purito wants to win a stage in this year’s Vuelta, this is probably their last chance. Astana and Vincenzo Nibali will be happy to see a breakaway take all the bonus seconds again this time. Nibali can’t follow Chris Horner on the steep gradients and even though the final climb isn’t very steep this time, I can’t see Nibali gain time on Horner in Oviedo.

The first 100 km of stage 19 take place next to the sea. The wind is coming from north-northeast and if it’s strong again, we might see a team like Saxo-Tinkoff trying to split up the peloton again. However, they are still about 80 km to go - and six climbs - so I doubt it will happen. However, DS Fabrizio Guidi says the team is looking to climb the GC and that means taking time on Purito and Valverde.

Usually the big favorites want to go for the stage win on the mythical Angliru climb and that means this is the last day for a breakaway to make it. Therefore, we can expect another very fast with half of peloton trying to get away. For once Movistar missed the breakaway on stage 18 and I’m sure they will be eager to get at least one rider up front this time. It’s true the final climb suits Alejandro Valverde very well but I doubt Movistar can control the race all by themselves. They tried on stage 18 and look what happened.

The final 5 km of stage 19 on Alto de Naranco.

The final 40 km of stage 19 are the hardest. There are three categorized climbs on the menu but actually, the intermediate sprint is also placed on top of a hill with an average of nearly 5 %. Typical for the Vuelta. The penultimate climb of the day, Alto de la Manzaneda, is the steepest one. It’s only 3.6 km long but has an average gradient of 6.2 %.

After entering Oviedo the final 5.7 km are uphill towards the finishing line. Alto del Naranco has average gradient of just 4.2 % but there are a steep kilometer of nearly 10 % with 3 km to go. The final two kilometers have an average gradient of 6.5 % and take place in headwind. The last 300 meters are straight out with a tailwind and should a couple of riders arrive together, it may be an idea to try an early sprint out of the final corner.

If the peloton catches the breakaway, Alejando Valverde is the big favorite but the chances of that aren’t very good. I think the GC riders will be saving a little energy for Angliru and that means we - once again - should look to riders down out of the general classification.

First rider on my list is Bauke Mollema. He didn’t have the legs to go for the GC after the Tour but he stayed in the race aiming for a stage win. That win came on stage 17 when he took the peloton by surprise with a late attack. Mollema is targeting the World Championships in Florence later this month and he’s coming out of this Vuelta in great shape. The final climb suits Mollema perfectly and unlike many other, the Belkin captain doesn’t need to solo away in order to win. Bauke Mollema is very fast on the line and it’s probably only Valverde and Dani Moreno could can outsprint him on a finish like this one.

Another strong rider right now is Diego Ulissi. I’ve been naming him a couple of times already as a good candidate for an early breakaway but so far, Ulissi hasn’t been able to make it. However, the young Italian is climbing very well these days and this stage really suits him. He tried a late attack the other day but never really got away. This is Diego Ulissi’s last chance for a stage win and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to make that final breakaway. Lampre also has Michele Scarponi for a stage like this one together; Ulissi and Scarponi are a very dangerous duo for stage 19.

Team NetApp Endura has been doing extremely well so far in this Vuelta. Leo König is still sitting 8^th in the overall classification and Bartosz Huzarski was close to take the team’s second stage win the last time Warren Barguil won. König’s focus will be on Angliru but I think Huzarski has this stage marked in his road book. The strong Pole knows how to get into the right breakaways and he seems to be climbing very well right now. Furthermore, Huzarski is actually fast in an uphill sprint too. Don’t forget he took second place after Purito on stage 10 in the Giro last year.

For other good candidates looks to riders like; Warren Barguil, Rigoberto Uran, José Herrada, Ivan Santaromita, Rafa Valls, Andre Cardoso, Oliver Zaugg and the strong Euskaltel trio Igor Antón, Mikel Nieve and Mikel Landa. Euskaltel is aiming big at the team classification and we expect at least one orange rider in the breakaway.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

Christophe Riblon did what he does best and took an impressive stage win after a long breakaway in the mountains. Stage 19 doesn’t finish uphill but it will be just as hard for the riders.

The Route

We are in the end of the third week and everybody is already on his limits. Add to that an extremely tough uphill time trial and double up on Alpe d’Huez the days before. These 204.5 km will feel like forever for the riders and it all starts out with two HC climbs. Bon appetite!

There are 21.6 km to the top of Col du Glandon and due to a couple of small descents, the average gradient is “only” 5.1 %. There are steep parts of 11 % in the middle and after a long part of 5 %, the climb kicks up with 8 % near the top. The first rider over the top gets 25 points for the KOM Jersey and with no less than 75 points up for grabs today, this is a very important day for the riders targeting that competition. Chris Froome leads the competition in front of Nairo Quintana and since they both will get points on Saturday’s uphill finish, riders like Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland really need to attack from a far if they want to win the jersey.

After the descent from Col du Glandon, there are just 10 km to the next HC climb starts. Col de Madeleine is feared by many and with its 19.2 km of 7.9 %,it’s not difficult to understand why. There are still 121 km to go from the top of Madeleine and we will most likely see a breakaway get a good gap at this point.

The Finish

The last 70 km include three climbs in a row. First up is Col de Tamié (8.6 km / avg. 6.2 %) and after that it’s time for the steep Col de l’Épine with an average of 7.3 % and parts over 10 % near the top. The riders stay on a plateau for about 10 km after reaching the top of Col de l’Épine and after a short descent, they face the final climb of the day. Col de la Croix Fry is 11.3 km and has an average gradient of 7 %. There are steep parts halfway through to the top and we should see the favorites attack each other on this climb.

From the top of Col de la Croix Fry there are just 13 km to go and with only a few tricky corners on the descent, we can expect a fast finish. As of Thursday evening, there are 50 % chance of rain during the stage and that could spice up things a bit. The Tour had a similar stage finish in 2004 when Lance Armstrong tried to get teammate Floyd Landis to win. Landis didn’t manage to get away on the descent and in the end Armstrong outsprinted Andreas Klöden to take the stage win.

The final 70 km of Stage 19 - Click for larger view.

The Favorites

As hoped for in my Preview for stage 18, Saxo-Tinkoff tried to make a masterpiece. They failed however and now they have to focus on keeping their podium spot instead of trying to win the Tour. It’s not like Alberto Contador not to aim for the overall win and even though he may not care if he ends 2^nd or 10^th, I bet his team does. I personally doubt Saxo-Tinkoff will try to open up the race from afar on this stage but with Contador you never know.

I didn’t mention Purito among my favorites for Alpe d’Huez since I was waiting to play him as my favorite for this stage. Purito had two big goals for this first part of the season; Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Tour de France. He managed to time his condition perfectly for LBL but in a sprint against Dan Martin he couldn’t do better than second place. Ever since April all focus has been on the Tour and trying to peak in the third week. So far, everything has gone according to the plan and Purito is now just 26 seconds from the podium. In his preparation for the Tour, Purito has been training on this stage and tomorrow’s stage and he knows exactly what to expect. He best chance of making podium is to drop Contador and Kreuziger - I doubt he can handle Quintana - and to do that he needs to put in a couple of strong attacks on Col de la Croix Fry. 

Teammate Dani Moreno is also peaking right now and I expect a big show from Katusha in the last days in the Alps. Purito’s biggest rival for the stage win is Alejandro Valverde but according to Valverde, Movistar are now all-in for Nairo Quintana and his podium place. In case Alberto Contador has another bad day, I think it will only be Purito, Froome and Quintana in front (among the favorites) over the top of Col de la Croix Fry and if they can make it to the finishing line, Purito should be able to outsprint Quintana. Froome will happy just to keep the yellow jersey.

The Jokers

I mentioned in the beginning that this is an important stage for the riders still hoping to win the KOM Jersey. Mikel Nieve is fourth in that competition right now, 41 points behind Chris Froome, but if Nieve is first man over the two first climbs, he will take the jersey - for now. The strong Basque climber is 15^th overall, 24:13 minutes down, and he’s not a threat for the Top10 riders should he get into the morning breakaway. Euskaltel are in desperate need of a new sponsor and it would help quite a lot if Mikel Nieve could win the Polka Dot Jersey.

Europcar tried to attack on stage 18 with Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland but it all came too late as the breakaway already had a big gap. I think both Voeckler and Rolland will be eager to get into the morning breakaway and with a downhill finish, the stage looks very good for especially Voeckler.

My last joker is Alessandro De Marchi. His teammate Moreno Moser came close on Alpe d’Huez and his third place must have boosted the moral for the coming days. De Marchi himself has tried hard the last couple of days in the mountains and he did very well on stage 18 despite not getting into the morning breakaway. He finished 19^th on Alpe d’Huez and he showed in Dauphiné that he has what it takes to go all the way. Two years ago, the Italian’s former team boss, Gianni Savio, told me that De Marchi is strong but “not a winner”. Things have changed since then and should Alessandro De Marchi manage get into the morning breakaway, I think he will be very difficult to beat - should they make it to the line.

Favorite: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Jokers: Thomas Voeckler & Alessandro De Marchi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 19:

Giro d'Italia: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

The stage has been cancelled!

Due to bad weather, yet another mountain stage has been modified. The Giro organizers had to cancel both Gavia and Stelvio and replace them with Passo del Tonale and Passo Castrin Hofmahdjoch.  These are not nearly as tough as Gavia and Stelvio but they will provide an early selection.

The stage starts with a short descent and then it’s time for Passo del Tonale. It’s only a category 2 climb but its 8.3 km have an average gradient of 7.5% and the riders chasing the KOM jersey will have to attack early. Stefano Pirazzi seems to have the competition under control but he can’t afford to miss the morning break and I expect him and Jackson Rodriguez, Robinson Chalapud and Giovanni Visconti to get away on Passo del Tonale.

Vincenzo Nibali destroyed the rest of the peloton on the uphill time trial and he now has his stage win in the bag. Of course he would like to take another one but I doubt he will use up his team just to chase down a morning breakaway. At this point in the Grand Tours, the riders just around Top10 normally try to attack from a far in order to move up a few spots. Thomas De Gendt did it last year and that almost gave him the overall win. I don’t think anybody can threaten Nibali in this race but the last two podium spots are definitely up for grab. Rigoberto Uran, Cadel Evans and Michele Scarponi will most likely wait to the final climb but it would be interesting to see Lampre send Przemyslaw Niemiec up the road early.

Niemiec asked Scarponi earlier this week what he would have to do in order to take the Pink Jersey and Scarponi told him that he should attack from a far and not just wait until the final kilometer. A Top5 place overall will be a big result for Niemiec but since Lampre have both Niemiec and Scarponi in Top5 right now, they should try something spectacular and at least get one rider on the podium.

Another strong Pole with his eyes on a stage win is Rafal Majka. Bjarne Riis had big plans for Majka for last year’s Giro d’Italia but due to a knee injury, Majka never got to start the race. This year, Majka is eager to show himself and after the best time trial of his career he is not 6^th overall. Majka also took back the White Jersey from Carlos Betancur and even though he says it’s not a priority, I’m sure he will do everything in order to keep it. The big goal for Saxo-Tinkoff is still a stage win and I think Majka will give them one in these final two mountain stages. Rafal Majka is 6:45 min after Vincenzo Nibali so he won’t be the first rider Nibali starts chasing down. He will however be the first rider Carlos Betancur will counter. The White Jersey is Betancur’s biggest target this season and he is just two seconds after Majka before the stage. I expect a great dual between the two climbers on the final climb. A dual that very well could turn out to be a dual for the stage win as well.

Val Martello Martelltal - 22.4 km / 6.4% avg.

The final climb is 22.4 km long and it has an average of 6.4%. The first 6.5 km are steep with 8%. Then there is a short descent followed by 8 km uphill with 7% average. With 6 km to go the climb kicks up with 14% and this will be a good place to test the competition. Hereafter it’s ‘flat’ for about 5 km before the final 1.5 km kicks up with 14% towards the line. The steep hairpin turns will be great for an explosive rider like Betancur, so expect him to put a couple of strong attacks towards the line.

Movistar are having a great Giro d’Italia with four stage wins and the Pink Jersey and I wouldn’t be surprised if they took another one here. Eros Capecchi and José Herrada are great riders for an early breakaway, Capecchi earlier pointed to this stage as his favorite, and Juan José Cobo is also a good pick. Of course they will need some to protect Beñat Intxausti but a morning break without any of the three mentioned will surprise me.

It’s difficult to pick 1 favorite with so many strong riders so instead I’ll make two groups.

Favorites: Carlos Betancur / Rafal Majka / Vincenzo Nibali

Breakaway: Eros Capecchi / Fabio Duarte / Francesco Manuel Bongiorno

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 19:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 19

On paper this looks like another sprint stage without any categorized climbs on the menu, but don’t let that fool you! We are in Spain and especially the last 65 kilometers are up and down all the way to the finish line where it kicks up with 4,5% the last 1700 meters.

With about 8 km to go there’s a another uphill part with an average gradient of 7% over 800 meters on a tiny road towards Zamarramala. After that it’s downhill again before the final 1700 meters I just described. The forecast says the riders should have a tail wind the last 30 km and that means it will be another fast finish despite the ‘climbs’.

The uphill part with 7% towards Zamarramala. 8km to go.

In my opinion this stage looks good stage for guys like Gianni Meersman - fast guys with a good punch in a slightly uphill finish - and therefore I think that especially Lotto will do everything they can in order to set up Meersman for the final sprint. 

So far Rabobank haven’t even been close to a stage win and if they miss the morning break (again) they should be willing to help out Lotto, Argos-Shimano, GreenEdge and whoever wants to give their fast guy a chance. I have a feeling Matti Breschel soon will strike. He's using this Vuelta as warm-up for the World Champions and tomorrow's stage would be a good rehearsal for Limburg! Look out for the fast Dane...

It’s not given it will end in a sprint and even though the morning break might get caught before the line, the uphill part with 8 km to go will be a good place to attack for guys like Gilbert, Nocentini etc. Why not even Purito who will be eager to take some time on Valverde and maybe put Contador a little under pressure.  On the other hand, Valverde could be a sneaky pick for the stage win which will give a bigger gap to Purito before the Saturday’s steep finish on Bola del Mundo.

My favorite though is once again John Degenkolb. The fast German missed out on stage 18 in the last tricky corner and I’m sure he will be eager to take revenge in La Lastrilla. Some might say that the finish is too hilly for him but don’t forget that he has won on steeper finishes than this one earlier in his career. If Argos-Shimano can manage to keep it together before the last 2 km, I think it will be very difficult to beat Degenkolb. Even for guys like Meersman and Gilbert.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Matti Breschel

---

To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Remi Pauriol

Explanation: Lotto Belisol are down to just five riders but Friday's uphill sprint will be each man for himself and I have a feeling Gianni Meersman may finally turn things round for the winless Belgium outfit. I expect fierce competition from Philippe Gilbert, perhaps even Alejandro Valverde, and a whole cluster of riders also looking to deliver a first win for their teams - Dutchmen Pim Ligthart and Robert Gesink, for instance. I fancy Astana to have a pop through Seeldraeyers, Zeits or Bazayev. But I'll stick with Meersman for his sprinting abilities. For my joker I'm going to go for a Frenchman. We're two stages from Madrid and still yet to see a win from a French rider. Christophe Riblon or Romain Sicard are long shots, but I'm going to go even more outré with Remi Pauriol from a break. With the scores tied 9-9 it's time to be bold. Or 'fou' as they say in France...

---

Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Tour Preview - Stage 19

---

Some might say that the last stage into Paris is the real parade stage in the Tour de France, but with the overall classification already set, this stage is kind of a parade too. A parade for the strong time trialists and in case you missed it, the two very best (left) in the race are also the two first riders in the GC.


Favorites:
It seems redundant to mention it, especially after the first time trial in the race, but of course Bradley Wiggins is the big favorite for this time trial. Wiggins has murdered any sign of competition in the time trials so far this year and there is absolutely nothing that points in any other direction than him doing it again this time. The biggest threat to Bradley Wiggins is his team mate Chris Froome, who would have won this Tour (easily…) hasn’t been for the time loss on the one of the first stages and his baby sitting duties in the mountains.

Personally I hope Chris Froome will win this stage and I’m sure he is eager to give a real try as well, but it won’t be easy against Wiggins. These two guys will most likely end 1st and 2nd on the stage so the rest of the peloton is actually only fighting for 3rd place - very much like in the overall classification too.

If I should mention a joker for the stage it would be Tejay Van Garderen. The young American did extremely well in the first time trial and he says he is very motivated for give it full gas this time too. TJ is 2:37 minutes after Jurgen Van den Broeck in 4th place and if he has the right day it’s not very unlikely that he can take all that time back on the Dutchman who had a very poor first time trial. “I'll empty the tank and see where I end up. I had a good one last time. Maybe I can go even better”, Tejay Van Garderen said looking ahead to the final fight against the clock.

Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins or Chris Froome
Joker: Tejay Van Garderen

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 19

Gianni Savio explains:

This is a very, very hard stage! It's the third photo of the Giro. The last climb is unbelievable hard and therefore I have no doubts that it will be one of the small climbers who will win this stage.

A guy like Domenico Pozzovivo has been looking very strong in this Giro and this is a very good stage for him. Also for Purito and hopefully for Rujano too.