World Championship - Road Race Preview & Favorites

It’s finally time. This Sunday, the elite men’s road race is on and we are in for quite a show. It’ the most open World Championship in a while and with a rainy weather forecast; anything can happen!

In total, the race is 272.2 km long. The day starts in Lucca and from here; the riders have 100 km to overcome before they reach Florence. There are two climbs on this first part; Montecarlo (3.75 km / 3.5 %) and San Baronto (3.9 / 7.1 %). These two climbs won’t make for a selection but especially San Baronto will serve as an appetizer of what waits the riders later on.

When reaching Florence the riders starts on 10 laps of 16.57 km. The first two kilometers are flat but then the road kicks up. The Fiesole climb is 4.37 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The gradients barely drop below 7 % the last 1500 meters and this is where we find the steep parts of over 10 %. There are 10 km to the line from the top of Fiesole. The descent starts out very technical but then gets easier with nice and soft turns. However, there is a very steep part and then a difficult 90° left turn with about 8.7 km to go. If the rains, riders chasing to get back have to pay close attention to this corner in order not to see their chances disappear in a crash.

The following 2 km are fast very fast and after a sharp right hand turn, it’s time to climb again. The 600 meters on Via Salviati have an average gradient of 10 % and include a part of 200 meters with over 16 % towards the top. There are only 5 km to go from the top of Via Salviati and as the final part is very fast, it won’t be easy to catch a small group of riders if they get a gap over the top. With a less than 3 km to the line, the riders turn left and the following 150-200 meters are uphill with parts of 10 %. This may be the last place to attack if you want to solo away. The road kicks up a little again as the rider cross the railroad and after a 180° corner, the final 1500 meters are flat and straight out towards the line.

Everybody seems to have a different opinion on the best way to prepare for this World Championship and which riders it favors. It’s hard to keep track but here is some of the statements:

•           You need to ride Vuelta España.
•           This is a route for the climbers.
•           You need to be fast.
•           You need to be explosive on the climbs.
•           Don’t count on the Vuelta riders, the last week was too hard.
•           You need to be able to win on this kind of distance.

Confused? I understand. It may not look like there is a rider who can tick off every single criteria. However, there is one. More about him a little later.

First, let’s look at the teams with the most responsibility this Sunday. Spain has the strongest team (9 riders) with Contador, Purito and Valverde but home favorites Italy (9) isn’t far behind with the likes of Scarponi, Ulissi and Nibali. The Netherlands (Gesink, Mollema, Slagter), Switzerland (Cancellara, Albasini) and Colombia (Quintana, Uran, Henao, Betancur) also have nine riders at the start. So does France but I would be surprised to see them start working in the peloton. The French riders have to be aggressive in the attacks and with Pinot, Barguil and Voeckler they have enough firepower to put in a couple of strong attacks on the final laps.

Peter Sagan (Slovakia) has five teammates to help him, among these are the Velits brothers, Peter and Martin, plus Sagan’s own brother Juraj. Sagan would like this race to be as easy as possible and hope for a big group together on the final lap. Therefore I doubt Slovakia will put much effort into chasing the breaks early on. Last year’s winner, Philippe Gilbert and Belgium have seven riders at the start this time and compared to last year, they will be more aggressive. Gilbert needs a hard race with a big selection and if so, he will probably have to attack on Via Salviati on the last lap and get away with a couple of riders. This is his best chance of winning in Florence.

Profile of the circuit in Florence. 10 laps of 16.57 km.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara is the number one favorite. The Swiss Time Machine pays 3 to 1. It’s nothing new that Cancellara has a red circle around the World Championship but usually it’s focused around the time trial. This year, Fabian Cancellara has put everything into becoming World Champion in the road race instead. He has lost some kilos and in the Vuelta España, he showed to be in great shape on the climbs. As a warm-up for the road race, Cancellara has done both the team time trial (last Sunday) and the individual time trial (last Wednesday). Radioshack finished 4^th in the TTT while Cancellara took the bronze medal in the ITT, only two seconds form second place. There is no doubt that Fabian Cancellara is in great shape right now but is he strong enough to keep stay with the punchy climbers on Via Salviati? Remember, in total this race has more than 60 km of climbing. It’s not “just” a usually tough one day race, it’s a regular mountain stage. If Cancellara has to fight his way back after both Fiesole and Via Salviati, how much energy will he has left for the expected late attack in the final On the other hand, the U23 winner Matej Mohoric said he didn’t think the course was that hard and makes Cancellara one of the two big favorites.

The other top favorite is Peter Sagan. Sagan usually don’t have any problems on these kind of climbs and to make sure he doesn’t get dropped, he went to train hard in the mountains earlier this season. It quickly paid off and in Tour de Suisse, he actually won the mountain stage with the steepest climb in the race. Peter Sagan does well in the short time trials, he can sprint and he can solo away to win as well. It’s difficult to find any flaws but if there is one, it may be the distance. Sagan is yet to win a race over 250 km and even though he has come close a couple of times, it’s still one thing missing on his impressive palmares.

The Spanish duo Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez makes it hard to imagine a final podium without a Spanish rider. Valverde is a true specialist in these kind of one-day races and Purito too knows how prepare for a single day and then deliver. Both have been on the podium in the past but neither has ever won. This year both Valverde and Purito aimed at the Tour de France this summer. Afterwards they started out the Vuelta with the intention of getting ready for this Sunday. They finished 3^rd and 4^th overall in the Vuelta and seem very strong at the moment. Especially, Purito finished the Vuelta strong and I think he’s Spain’s best card to play. Few - if any - can match Purito’s kick on the steep gradients and I would imagine he would try to split the group on Via Salviati the last time. We saw in the U23 race that Via Salviati creates a lot more damage than Fiesole and the steep gradients really suits Purito who’s also good on the descent. Furthermore, Purito showed in Giro di Lombardia last year, that he can win in the rain as well. Of course, if it ends in a sprint of 10+ riders, Alejandro Valverde is the best option for Spain and if Peter Sagan isn’t in the group, Valverde shouldn’t have problems outsprinting the rest.

The last one of the top favorites is Vincenzo Nibali. He’s riding on home soil in Italy and naturally the expectations are high. Italy hasn’t be able to deliver since 2008 when the finished 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th in Varese. Now the World Championship is back in Italy and after Nibali won the Giro d’Italia and finished second overall in the Vuelta, everybody expect another top performance from the shark. To help Nibali take the rainbow jersey, Italy sends strong riders like Michele Scarponi, Rinaldo Nocentini, Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Diego Ulissi. Italy’s big problem in the past has been too many captains, this time it’s different. Pozzato and Scarponi are both in great shape but they have to leave their big egos at home. Ulissi is double junior world champion and I have no doubts he’ll win the elite’s race one day as well. Diego Ulissi is strong on the climbs and fast on the line. However, he’s not very good on the descents especially not if the roads are wet. Vincenzo Nibali needs to attack on Fiesole and make an early selection, then he probably has to dig deep again on Via Salviati and then attack on the descent as he has done in the past. Nibali knows his only chance is to solo away and I’m sure he won’t think twice if he sees an opening in the final.

As I wrote earlier, there actually is one rider fitting all the listed statement. This rider is Dan Martin. He started the Vuelta, he didn’t ride the last week of the race, he’s a climber, he’s explosive, he’s fast on the line and he has proven to be able to win on the long distance (LBL this year). After crashing out of the Vuelta, Dan Martin took part in Tour of Britain as his last preparation for the World Championship. He raced very aggressively and showed on the climbs that he is still going very strong. So far, 2013 has already been a great season for Dan Martin after winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege and stage 9 of the Tour de France. He has been targeting the Rainbow Jersey for a while and he has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking from afar if necessary. I think the most likely scenario for this race, is a small group of about five riders arriving at the finishing together. If Dan Martin is in this group, he will be very difficult to beat.

Earlier this year, Colombia seemed to have one of the most powerful teams for this race. However, both Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur didn’t really deliver in the Vuelta and it’s doubtful they will be able to perform - as previously expected - this Sunday. Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran are still two very strong outsiders but it won’t be easy for the Colombians to continue their dominance this season. Nairo Quintana’s father is hoping to visit the Pope when the race is over and naturally, it would be amazing for the humble climber to join his parents with the Pope carrying the Rainbow Jersey. I don’t think it will be happen though.

Map of the circuit in Florence.

Before this preview gets too long to read, let’s have a look at some of the jokers for the win. My personal joker is Rui Costa. Like Dan Martin, Rui Costa has already had a great season with the overall win in Tour de Suisse and two impressive stage wins in Tour de France. The World Championship has been a big goal for Rui Costa all season and the course really suits him. Portugal only has three riders in the race but both Andre Cardoso and Tiago Machado are dedicated to help Rui Costa win the Rainbow Jersey.

Another strong outsider is Chris Froome. Not since Greg Lemond in 1989 has a Tour de France winner went on to become World Champion. This year Froome has a unique chance of doing so but he knows he requires a hard race with a big selection. In the beginning of August, Chris Froome went to check out the course and train on the roads. He did the Via Salviati climb 10 times and he knows what to expect. After finishing the Tour, Froome immediately started talking about the World Championship and after training hard in North America the last weeks, he now seems ready. Like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome most likely has to solo away in order to win this race but don’t forget he actually outsprinted both Contador and Purito in Tour of Oman earlier this year.

For other jokers look to in-shape Robert Gesink and Thomas Voeckler, one-day specialist Alexandr Kolobnev and strong all-rounder Edvald Boasson Hagen. For the super-super jokers I’ll like to mention season revelation Tanel Kangert, World Champion specialist Matti Breschel and youngster Tom-Jelte Slagter who has a good kick on the hills and is fast on the line.

For live coverage of the race go to steephill.tv

World Championship - Time Trial Preview & Favorites

Tony Martin got the best possible start to this year’s World Championship when he and Omega Pharma Quickstep won the opening team time trial last Sunday. Now it’s time for the individual time trial and just like the last two years, the strong German is the top favorite.

Except for a slightly different finish, the course is the same as for the team time trial. It’s a power course for the big engines and basically it’s all about speed. The small hill in the beginning won’t matter much as the following 50 km are flat. Only the final few kilometers inside of Florence are technical but the riders doing the team time trial already know how to take the corners without losing time.

Half a year ago, I had no doubts Tony Martin would win this race and take his third consecutive World Champion title. However, I must admit Bradley Wiggins has been extremely strong recently. Both Martin and Wiggins are best on a course like this one and I think it will be a close fight. Still, I’ll stick with Tony Martin as my number one favorite. He’s been training on the course, he did the team time trial and he knows how to take the tricky corners in Florence. According to the German, he’s in better shape than last year and he feels more prepared. He got a massive motivation boost when OPQS won the team time trial and he’s now very confident.

While Tony Martin has had the same approach towards the time trials within the last handful of years, Bradley Wiggins' focus has changed completely. He went from being a time trial specialist to winning the Tour de France. In this process, Wiggins lost a lot of weight and he had to comprise his time trial training. After his failed attempt to win the Giro d’Italia this year, Wiggins now seems to have given up on winning another Grand Tour. He’s now 7-8 kg heavier than when he won the Tour and since June, he’s only been focusing on his time trial. In his comeback race after the Giro, Bradley Wiggins won the 37 km time trial in Tour of Poland when he distanced Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney with a minute.  Last week he won the short time trial in Tour of Britain without any problems and according to Wiggins, he too feels a lot better than last year. In 2012, Wiggins won the Olympic time trial just 10 days after winning the Tour de France. This time the World Champion time trial comes just three days after Tour of Britain. It will be very interesting to see if it’s enough time for Wiggins to switch focus and beat Tony Martin. Personally, I doubt it.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara will take the bronze medal this Wednesday. The way I see it, Cancellara is a strong candidate but riders like Taylor Phinney and Adrian Malori have a solid chance of making podium as well. As stated in my preview for the team time trial, Fabian Cancellara’s main focus in on the road race on Sunday. No other top favorites are doing all three races and if Cancellara wants to win on Sunday, it may not be the best idea to test his limits on a course like this and take risks in the tricky corners. Cancellara has worked hard to get better on the climbs, we saw that in Vuelta España, and it means he has lost some speed on the long flat parts. He’s still among the very best in the world but against Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, I honestly can’t see him win.

Last year Taylor Phinney did the time trial of his life when he finished second to Tony Martin. Phinney was only six seconds from beating Tony Martin and becoming World Champion and now he’s out for revenge. He lives near the course and knows it like the back of his hand. Every time Phinney is out training on his time trial bike, he’s riding on part of the course and I doubt any of the riders starting tomorrow knows it better than he does. BMC had big ambitions for the team time trial but failed to live up their own expectations. They finished fourth and Taylor Phinney didn’t hide his disappointment. Wednesday the young American has another chance to show his potential and personally, I have Phinney down for a spot on the final podium.

The Italians haven’t had much to cheer for in the time trials for a while. Marco Pinotti was on his way to medal last year but then crashed in the final. Right now Adriano Malori is the Italians best hope and on a good day, he could surprise and make podium. Malori is getting better and better every year and this season, he has been very close to Tony Martin a couple of times. In Tirreno-Adriatico, Malori finished second in the final time trial, just six seconds after Martin. In time trial in Tour de Romandie, Malori finished second again this time 16 seconds after Tony Martin. It’s worth noticing that in this time trial Malori put in 18 seconds on the overall winner Chris Froome. The time trial in Florence is obviously a big goal for Adriano Malori and he’s been working hard in order to deliver a top performance this Wednesday. He knows the competition is fierce but if some of the other candidates strike out, Malori will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

The five mentioned riders are also the five riders starting last. For the complete starting order click here.

Among the super jokers for a medal we'll find riders like the Vacansoleil-DCM duo Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra. In the Tour de France this year, De Gendt started right before Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to not to change that fact. Fighting to keep Tony Martin behind him, Thomas De Gendt put in such a strong performance that he finished third on the stage. This time, his teammate Lieuwe Westra is starting right after De Gendt. Westra isn't on the same level as Tony Martin, but I still expect him to do Top10 this Wednesday. In fact, Lieuwe Westra says that being the first to catch Thomas De Gendt in a time trial is an extra motivation for him. It will be interesting to see how the two - soon to be - former teammates will perform against each other.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a stage for the sprinters - or so it seems. In fact, the final 10 km are very demanding with a steep hill and a tricky descent. More on the later.

The day starts in Calahorra and finish in Burgos after 189 km in the saddle. Without being completely flat, this isn’t a very hilly stage either. The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s Vuelta and their teams will be eager to control the race. The first 100 km take place in head- and crosswind and we shouldn’t see a breakaway get too much of a gap.  After 109.8 km it’s time for the first categorized climb of the day, Alto de Pradilla. It’s a category 3 climb and the 6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.4 %.

The next climb, Alto de Valmala, starts after 133.5 km and from its top there are 50 km to the finishing line. The last intermediate sprint comes with 36 km to go and from here, the riders will be able to enjoy a strong tailwind towards Burgos. On paper, the final 10 km don’t look very tough but if you haven’t done your homework, you will be in for a big surprise!

With about 10 km to go, the riders turn right - away from the big road - up the little Calle Eras de San Francisco. The following 1.2 km are uphill and especially the first part is steep. While the riders won’t be able to admire it, the TV-viewers will have a beautiful view over Burgos on the way towards the top of the hill. From here, it’s downhill for about 450 meter before the road kicks up again for 200 meters. The following 800 meters downhill are very technical and on narrow roads. The peloton will be stretch out significantly on this part, and it’s doubtful all the sprinters will make it back to the front in time.

The final 5 km are straight out with a few up and down parts. There is now cross- and headwind towards the line and it won’t be easy for a lonely rider to keep the peloton behind him. However, if the sprinters aren’t back in the peloton, it may be very difficult organizing the chase.

The final 14 km of stage 17. Many things to pay attention to!
Click for larger view.

We haven’t seen a regular mass sprint since Michael Matthews won Stage 5 and the chances are good that we won’t get one this time either. Usually Philippe Gilbert, Luis León Sanchez and Simon Gerrans would be excellent winner candidates for a finish like this one. However, they are all out of the race and instead we should probably look to opportunistic riders like Juan Antonio Flecha, Fabian Cancellara, Luca Paolini and Rinaldo Nocentini for a late attack on the hill.

Especially Fabian Cancellara is extremely strong right now and if he gets away on the descent, I doubt the peloton will see him again until after they cross the finishing line. The same goes for a rider like Samuel Sanchez. He’s getting better and better but he still isn’t able to beat the best climbers uphill. Sanchez knows how to attack on the final kilometers and keep the peloton behind him and he’s very eager to give Euskaltel their first stage win in the their last Vuelta a España.

In case it all gets back together in time for the final sprint, it should come down to a battle between Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews. In theory, any of them should have problems on the 1.2 km climb but it all depends on how fast the peloton is going. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another very good candidate for the stage win. He came close when Gilbert won and he’s been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway the last couple of days. The strong Norwegian is obviously in great shape and I would be surprised not to see him fight for the win in Burgos.

If you are looking for a super joker, look to Anthony Roux. He’s very fast on the line, especially in a reduced peloton, and he’s been doing very well the last two days in the Pyrenees. He may not be able to beat the big sprinters in a regular bunch sprint but with a finish like this one, he should be in the mix.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 17, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 11 (ITT) Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a time trial. This has already been a very tough race and it will be interesting to see how the legs of the GC riders will respond after a day off the bike. We have often seen riders having an off-day after a rest day and alone against the clock, you can really lose some time if you’re not ready.

This year’s Vuelta is one for the climbers and that shows on the time trial too. The 38.8 km around Tarazona include a long category 3 climb. The road book has Alto del Moncayo to be 9 km long but actually, it’s already been uphill for a while before the official start of the climb. Compared to the last time trial in the Tour de France this year, this isn’t as tough. It’s definitely a hard course but with an average gradient of just 4.1 % and no steep parts, Alto del Moncayo won’t kill the hopes of the time trial experts.

In fact, the second part of the route favors the big engines like Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara. Most of the final 20 km are downhill and we can expect a fast finish with a tailwind on this second part.

Favorites

Not surprisingly, the bookmakers' favorite is Tony Martin. He’s the double World Champion and he’s simply in a league of his own against the clock these years. The last time trial of the Tour had two hard climbs on the menu and naturally, a big rider like Martin didn’t stand a chance against Froome and Contador. The climb on this time trial isn’t as hard as those in the Tour and with a long and fast descent, it will be extremely difficult to beat the German Panzerwagen.

Fabian Cancellara is probably the only rider able to take this win away from Tony Martin. However, Cancellara hasn't been the same time machine we used see in recent years. This is probably also why he’s now focusing on the road race instead of the time trial for the World Championships in Florence later this month. Cancellara looks very lean right now and so far, he has been been very good on the climbs in this Vuelta. Because of this, some may say the climb favors him over Tony Martin but I think Cancellara’s hard work in front of the peloton will show in time trial. Tony Martin has been able to “take it easy” and save himself for this stage and that will be important. Of course, Cancellara is still a world-class time trialist and it will be a close fight for the stage win Tarazona!

Outsiders

Looking at the start list, there are many strong riders able to make podium in this time trial. Specialists like Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, Kristof Vandewalle and Lieuwe Westra all have what it takes to put in a strong performance. The climb may be too much for Vandewalle but I’m sure he’s eager to show off his Belgian national jersey. Pinotti did very well in the final time trial of Tour of Poland a month ago and on a good day, he should be up there fighting for top3. Westra has been very anonymous so far in the Vuelta. However, the team explains that Westra feels better and better every day and they now hope for a strong time trial from the Dutch national champion. For other good outsiders look to Luis León Sanchez, Jan Barta, Ben Hermans, Dario Cataldo and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Astana has a lot of riders able to do well in this discipline. Jakob Fuglsang, Janez Brajkovic, Tanel Kangert and Andriy Grivko can, in theory, all do top10 but I doubt Astana will let them go full speed. There is still a long way to Madrid and Vincenzo Nibali needs his strong domestiques to be ready when it counts. Kangert sits 14^th in the overall classification before this time trial and the team may give him the green light to try his luck. He did very well in the first time trial in the Giro this year and on a good day, he may re-enter Top10 overall Wednesday afternoon.

Overall Classification

Looking at the fight for the Red Jersey, I doubt Chris Horner will lead Vuelta España after this time trial. He’s more skinny than I’ve ever seen him and even though he has done good time trials in the past, I can’t see him keep the jersey. On the final, short (9.2 km) time trial in Tirreno-Adriatico, Horner almost lost 20 seconds to Nibali. This time trial is four times as long and despite the climb, Nibali will be able to take a lot of time on the American veteran. Last year, Horner finished 13^th overall in the Tour de France but even though he was in great shape, he didn’t do well in the time trials. The first time trial in the Tour that year was about the same length as this one and back then, Horner lost more than three minutes to Nibali. The time differences won’t be as big this time but surely Vincenzo Nibali is able to take back the 43 seconds he’s after Honer in the GC. Actually, we may even see Nibali make podium in this time trial.

Astana’s big plan for this Vuelta was for Nibali to start out the race on 75 % and by the first rest day reach 100 %. So far, everything has gone according to plan and it will be a big surprise not to see Nibali in the Red Jersey at the beginning of Thursday’s stage 12.

I also expect Nicolas Roche to do well. Bjarne Riis always demands his riders to focus on the time trials and Roche has made significant improvements this year. He finished 24^th in the final time trial in Tour de Suisse and no, that wasn’t because of the hard climb. Nicolas Roche actually had 14^th best time after the flat part. In front of riders like Peraud, Millar, Monfort, Klöden etc. In the Tour the improvements continued as Roche finished  28^th in the first time trial. The Irishman has lost 2.5 kg since the Tour and that really shows on the climbs. It will be interesting to see how weight loss will affect his time trial performance this Wednesday. He won’t beat Nibali but Roche should be able to keep the other GC riders behind him.

This is also a good course for Alejandro Valverde. He knows how to keep his pace on the demanding parts and Valverde is an excellent descender. The Movistar captain did very well in the final time trial of the Tour and even though this one isn’t as tough, he should be able to clock in a great time. Also, look out for his teammate Beñat Intxausti. The Basque rider is good against the clock and his time checks will be vital for Valverde. In addition to that, Intxausti starts just in front of Tony Martin. In the first time trial of the Tour, Thomas De Gendt started in front of Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to keep his record. At the end of the day, Thomas De Gendt finished 3rd on the stage.

Starting Order

Lieuwe Westre starts as number 18 at 13:31 and his time will most like stand for a while. Marco Pinotti starts at 14:15 and just three minutes later, it’s Tony Martin’s turn to take the starting ramp. Fabian Cancellara starts at 14:54 and as the last rider, Chris Horner roles out on the course at 16:50 local time. You can see the complete starting order HERE.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this time trial, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de Suisse: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

After eight tough stages, it’s now time to settle the overall classification. Tour de Suisse often ends with a time trial but never one like this.

Despite the distance of just 26.8 km, the riders are in for a day full of pain. The profile is extremely brutal with a final section of 10.3 km uphill with an average gradient of 9 %. The first 16.5 km are flat so we can expect the riders to start out on a time trial bike and then change to a road bike before the climb starts.

The first time check comes at the end of the flat part. This means that the fastest riders at this point not necessarily will be the fastest in the end.  Starting on the climb, the first 5.4 km have an average of 8.5 % before reaching the second time check. From here, there are 4.9 km to the finishing line and the average gradient of 9.5 % will make for a very hard finish.

Tour of California had a similar time trial this year ending with a steep climb. Many riders decided to change bike at the beginning of the climb but not Tejay van Garderen who won the stage. In California the climb was only 2.6 km though, so we should expect even van Garderen to make a bike change this time.

The young American is also the big favorite for this stage. He decided to take his own change on Stage 7 and not wait for Mathias Frank. Overall, Tejay van Garderen is now 1:17 min after his teammate in yellow and he still has a change of winning Tour de Suisse or at least make podium. It won’t be easy to take a minute on Rui Costa but if anyone in this race can do it, it’s Tejay Van Garderen.

The final 3 km of the stage. Very steep. 

Fabian Cancellara will be eager to take revenge from the opening time trial. The change of wind most likely cost him the stage win but I doubt he will be among the best this time. Cancellara will probably set best time at the first check point but 10.3 km with 9 % is not his terrain. Not even against the clock.

Instead, we should look to riders like Simon Spilak, Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jean-Christophe Peraud. Brajkovic has been getting better and better during the race and he seems to be ready for the Tour soon. The Slovenian rider has always been good against the clock and I think he will test himself and do very well in this time trial. Jean-Christophe Peraud is Ag2r’s designated Tour de France captain and I also see him getting stronger every day. In Paris-Nice earlier this year, Peraud distanced Tejay van Garderen with 20 seconds on the final uphill time trial. The American is clearly stronger right now but it shows that Peraud can be among the bests against the clock.

Another strong candidate for the win is Cameron Meyer. He won the opening time trial but many will say it was because the wind changed. Meyer is not a pure climber but he’s been very solid in the mountains and sits 8^th overall before the stage. I think the Australian will be eager to show that he can also win without a change of weather and I expect him to make podium on the stage. Not in the overall classification though.

My joker is Bauke Mollema. Many don’t see Mollema as strong time trialist but he’s actually not bad at all. The course favors him with the long and steep climb and if he can minimize his time loss on the flat part, he should be able to fight for the overall win. It won’t be easy to beat Rui Costa with 34 seconds but don’t forget Mollema’s time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco last year. On a hilly and very difficult course, Mollema took second place after Samuel Sanchez, beating World Champion Tony Martin in the process. I also expect Thibaut Pinot to do well. He will lose time ont the flat part but like Mollema, it shouldn't be much more than he can take back on the climb. 

Rui Costa is right now the big favorite to win Tour de Suisse for the second year in a row. It’s more or less his race to lose and it will be interesting to see how the Portuguese copes with that pressure. Few - except for the Swiss fans - expect Mathias Frank to keep Rui Costa behind him and I think that plays in Frank’s favor. Despite starting the stage in yellow, he’s still the underdog. It’s difficult to predict the outcome of a time trial like this one but I think it will end with Rui Costa winning overall. BMC should be able to put at least one rider on the final podium but who will it be?

Favorite: Tejay van Garderen

Jokers: Bauke Mollema & Jean-Christophe Peraud

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 1 Preview & Favorites

The last four years this race has started out with a short time trial and this year is no difference. The venue has changed from Lugano to Quinto but the distance is more or less the same. This 8.1 km time trial isn’t as hilly as the usually one in Lugano and this will favor the specialists.

The first 6 km are flat with only a few corners but the last 2 km include 300 meters of 7% before the descent and the last flat km towards the line.

It’s a good course for Fabian Cancellara but his shape is uncertain at the moment. He won’t be doing the Tour de France this year and therefore he doesn’t need to be in tip-top condition right now. Still, this is his home race and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to take the first yellow jersey in Quinto. Last year Peter Sagan beat Cancellara in the opening prologue and naturally, the Slovakian wonderboy must be named among the contenders for the stage win.

Sagan was great in Tour of California last month where he won two stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins three or four stages in Tour de Suisse again this year. Last year’s prologue favored him with the climb in the middle and even though it's hard to bet against him, I don’t think he will win this stage. Instead look to teammate Moreno Moser. The young Italian was third last year and has high hopes for this stage. Moser will be working hard for Sagan in the coming stages. A win in the opening stage will definitely be good for his moral.

Another strong contender for the win is Alex Rasmussen. The strong Dane won Stage 1 of Bayern-Rundfahrt a couple of weeks ago and seems to be back in good shape after his suspension. This kind of time trials are perfect for Rasmussen and on a good day, he’s fighting for the stage win.

If you are looking for an outsider try Simon Geschke or Cameron Meyer. Geschke ended 5^th overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt after a strong performance in the long time trial and actually a short one should suit the German even better. Cameron Meyer is one of my jokers for the overall classification and he’s always good against the clock. I think this time trial suits him very well and starting early his time will probably stand as one of the best for a very long time.

You can see the starting order for the time trial here.

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Paris-Roubaix: Preview and Favorites

Last year, Fabian Cancellara crashed out of Ronde van Vlaanderen and saw Tom Boonen winning both RvV and Paris-Roubaix. This year, Boonen crashed out of RvV while Fabian Cancellara won the race. Cancellara has been outstanding the last couple of weeks and there is really only one favorite for Paris-Roubaix this year.

Unfortunately, Fabian Cancellara saw the need to spin the legs in Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. He crashed in the race and so did he again the next day, while checking out the cobblesstone sections for Sunday. Two crashes in two days and suddenly Cancellara is not the massive favorite he was as after winning Ronde van Vlaanderen. He is still the favorite, but strong riders like Thor Hushovd, Taylor Phinney, Juan-Antonio Flecha, Ian Stannard, Edvald Boasson Hagen etc. are now more likely to win than they were just a few days ago.

I would imagine Radioshack to take control like they did last Sunday but they have to be careful. BMC and Team Sky have two very strong teams with multiple winner candidates and Radioshack can’t close all gaps by themselves. In the end it will be up to Fabian Cancellara himself to take action and if he still feels the recent crashes, he won’t be as unbeatable has he looked in Ronde van Vlaanderen. I still think Cancellara will win Paris-Roubaix, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a BMC or Team Sky rider crosses the line first on the velodrome.

I have a feeling Taylor Phinney will end on the podium. Last year, all he was thinking about was the Giro d’Italia prologue and he absolutely killed it. This winter has been all about peaking in Paris-Roubaix for Taylor Phinney and even though it won’t be as “easy” as winning the Giro prologue, the young American knows how to perform under his own pressure. Phinney has been naming Thor Hushovd as BMC’s designated team leader numerous times the last couple of weeks, but I personally think, Phinney will end as best BMC rider on Sunday. He’s incredibly strong on the cobblestones and very fast on the line. If Taylor Phinney arrives to the velodrome in the first group, I think he will win this race.

Paris-Roubaix is also the last chance for Team Sky to prove their untraditional Classics training was a good idea. It’s easy to criticize them, but we must remember that Geraint Thomas crashes in both Milano-San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen. In Milano-San Remo, Ian Stannard took over and did a great race and last Sunday, Edvald Boasson Hagen almost got on Sagan’s wheel when he and Cancellara went away in the final. EBH couldn’t stay with the strong duo on Kwaremont, but I think he will be better on the cobblestones. Like Phinney, Boasson Hagen is very fast on the line and I expect him to be among the best riders on Sunday.

Like always, I’ll like to point out a joker. This time it’s Matthieu Ladagnous. The big Frenchman has been very strong so far this season and the last couple of week he’s been near the front at all time. He was in the winning break with Sagan in Gent-Wevelgem (ended 6^th) and he took 2^nd place in the sprint behind the podium in Ronde van Vlaanderen last Sunday. Ladagnous finished 12^th in Paris-Roubaix last year and he is very eager to do even better this year. He probably won’t win this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s among the riders fighting for a spot on the podium.

For other strong riders with a fast finish, look to Lars Boom, Sébastien Turgot, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Jurgen Roelandts.

Winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Podium picks: Taylor Phinney / Edvald Boasson Hagen

Joker: Matthieu Ladagnous

For live coverage of this year's Paris-Roubaix go to steephill.tv

Ronde van Vlaanderen - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the second big one day race of the season, and just like last time (Milano - San Remo) my favorite is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian wonderboy has been outstanding the last month or so, and he showed in Gent-Wevelgem that he also has what it takes to go solo in the final and finish it off.

The new racecourse, introduced last year, means no more Kapelmuur but instead three times on Oude Kwaremont followed by and Paterberg. The last time on the two hills starts with 18 km to go and last year it was all back together at this point. I would imagine Omega Pharma Quickstep to have one of their outsiders up the road when it’s time for Oude Kwaremont, but at the top I expect the favorite to be together in front. Fabian Cancellara used this hill to get away when he won E3 and I would imagine him to put the Swiss hammer down again here this Sunday.

Peter Sagan ran out of power on Oude Kwaremont last year when he hit the front of the peloton trying to chase down Ballan, but I’m sure he has learned from his mistake. Sagan couldn’t followed Pozzato’s move with Boonen on the false flat, but on Paterberg he kicked hard, went away from the chase group and almost managed to close the gap. I expect Sagan to be in the front group when starting on Paterberg and I doubt anyone will be able to follow him if he kicks like that again this year. Fabian Cancellara is probably the only one able to catch up with Sagan on the final 13 km towards the finishing line, but I can’t see him beat Sagan in a sprint or drop him on the way.

Tom Boonen hasn’t been as strong as last year after his recent crashes and even if he’s able to follow Cancellara and Sagan, he still lack the speed to beat the Slovakian in a sprint. Luckily, Quickstep have a couple of other strong cards to play. Niki Terpstra and Sylvain Chavanel have been showing great shape the last couple of months and you can be certain that both will try their luck.                 

It’s also important to mention Team Sky, when pointing out potential winners. Their tactic of skipping Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and train together on Tenerife instead hasn’t really paid off yet, but it’s also important to remember that the coming races are the ones they have been targeting. I think Geraint Thomas will be on top of his game this Sunday and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to get himself in the front group after Paterberg. Some may think the steep percentages aren’t for Thomas, but don’t forget he dropped the whole peloton on 17% in Tour Down Under earlier this year. Ronde van Vlaanderen is his first big target of the season and together with teammates Edvald Boasson Hagen and Ian Stannard, Team Sky have strong team for Sunday.

Looking at a few jokers, let’s start with Heinrich Haussler. So far it hasn’t worked out for Haussler this spring, but he showed in Gent-Wevelgem to be in great shape. Haussler says that he has never been climbing better than right now, and if he manages to position himself up front when hitting Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg for the last time, he should be able to fight for the podium.

Another good outsider is Luca Paolini. The Italian veteran seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he knows how to ride these races. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblaad after a sneaky move in the final and took second place after Boonen in the peloton’s sprint in E3. Last year Paolini almost closed the gap to the front trio after Oude Kwaremont and even though he isn’t as explosive as Sagan, he still has enough experience to know when to open up and when to save the energy. I doubt Luca Paolini will win Ronde van Vlaanderen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends on the podium.

If you are looking for a super-super joker, look to Zdenek Stybar. He’s only ranked fourth in the Quickstep team for this race, but he is very strong on the hills right now. I would expect him to be in the moves with about 50 km to go and in case the other Quickstep riders strike out, Stybar could the man for a surprising result.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Heinrich Haussler / Luca Paolini / Zdenek Stybar

For live race coverage, as always, go to steephill.tv

Pain & Cheer: Milano-San Remo photos

Sunday's Milano-San Remo will forever be remembered, especially by the riders taking part in the race. Of the 200 starting riders, only 135 finished. Italian photographer Davide Calabresi took the following photos during the challenging weather conditions.

The look in Matteo Montaguti's and Fabian Wegmann's eyes tell the same story about the pain the riders felt on the bike today. In the end Gerald Ciolek gave MTN-Qhubeka the best Milano-San Remo debut possible and it's easy to see Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara had hoped for a different result.

You see more photos by Davide Calabresi from Milano - San Remo at his site by clicking here.

Olympic Preview - The Time Trial

Mark Cavendish and Team GB failed, despite a strong performance, to take a medal in the Olympic road race and therefore it's now last chance for the home soil favorites. 

Fortunately the chances are also pretty good. Because if Mark Cavendish was the big favorite for the road race (and he was!), Bradley Wiggins is an even bigger favorite for the time trial.

Route:

If you think this time trial will be like the first one in the Tour de France you better think twice and keep your money in the pocket. With a total 'climbing' of just 125 meters this 44 km time trial it's really just a basic, flat one suited for the riders with a big engine. With only a few tricky corners and a tiny 'hilly' section on Seven Hills Road, riders like Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara would have had a medal waiting with their name on if it hadn't been for their recent crashes. 

One could argue that Chris Froome would be a good candidate for this time trial after his outstanding performances in the Tour, but asked by me about his chances Froome says that the course is too flat for him. "It's one for the the real time trial specialists, but of course I'll give it my all", he explains.

Favorites:

German Tony Martin
World Champion.

Tony Martin had a terrible crash earlier this year, when he got hit by a car, but still managed to come back and get ready in time for the Tour de France. In the prologue he was on his way to a super fast time but punctured in the final and saw his chances of a top spot disappear. Martin then changed his focus to the long time trial on stage 9 but crashed again the very next day causing a fractured scaphoid bone in his hand. Once again he managed to get ready (more or less) for the time trial but just like in the prologue he punctured and lost time to the best riders. Tony Martin withdrew from the Tour after the time trial and has ever since been spending all his time and energy on getting ready for this Olympic Time Trial - a major goal for Martin this season.

In the road race Tony Martin was the only other rider helping Team GB in chasing the breaks but after a great effort in the front of the peloton - where he could stay out of troubles - Tony Martin withdrew half way through the race in order to get ready for the time trial. Tony Martin is super motivated to win an Olympic medal for Germany and hopes that it will "help making cycling popular again" in his home country. I think this course suits Tony Martin perfectly and if the pain from his hand doesn't affect him too much he could very well be the biggest threat to Bradley Wiggins.

Bradley Wiggins won the silver medal at the World Champions last year.
Now the Brit aims at the Olympic gold!

 And make no mistakes. Anything but an Olympic gold medal will (almost) be a disaster for Bradley Wiggins. It may sounds odd to talk about a disaster for a man who just won the Tour de France, but remember that this is what Wiggins has been working on for so many years;  to win the Tour and Olympic gold. Plus if Wiggins takes home another Olympic medal it will be his career's seventh medal and that is more than any other Brit has ever won. Last year he crashed out of the Tour and quickly changed his focus to a test-run for 2012 by doing Vuelta+World Champs. He ended 3rd overall in the Vuelta and took silver in time trial at the World Champions in Denmark. A pretty good preview for what could happen this year I would say!

Bradley Wiggins and Team Sky won, as planned, the Tour de France and even though Wiggins said he felt some fatigue in the road race (who wouldn't?!), I think it's safe to say that it will be a massive surprise if Bradley Wiggins doesn't win this time trial. At least the way I see it...

As said in the beginning this time trial looks pretty good for Fabian Cancellara as well but after he crashed (hard) out of the Olympic road race I doubt he will be able to be at his best already. Still, this time trial has been his biggest goal of the season and if Cancellara manages to ride through the pain he should take a medal.

Outsider:

The way I see it there is one super strong outsider that you simply must not forget! Sylvain Chavanel has been improving his trial skills quite a lot over the last few years and has shown to be among the best riders in the discipline this year. He beat Contador in the time trial in Tour de San Luis back in January, won in Driedaagse De Panne where (at the moment monster strong) Lieuwe Westra was beaten by four seconds and right before the Tour de France he become French national champions and got fifth in the time trial in Criterium du Dauphiné in front of super time trialists like Chris Froome, David Millar, Cadel Evans etc etc.

Sylvain Chavanel has been among the best in all the time trials this year.

I think you get the picture, but just to make it even clearer Sylvain Chavanel took 3rd place in the Tour prologue and 5th in the long time trial on stage 9. Unfortunately Chavanel got sick during the race and after suffering a few days he decided to quit the race in order toget ready for the Olympic time trial. In the road race last Saturday he showed he was back at his best level and I honestly think that Sylvain Chavanel will be able to take medal Wednesday afternoon.

Joker:

Gustav Erik Larsson started out this season in a fantastic way for his new team, Vacansoleil-DCM, when he won the opening time trial in Paris-Nice. Unfortunately the Swedish time trial specialist hasn't been able to follow up on that strong performance. In the Giro d'Italia he did well when he took 5th (in the prologue) and 7th (in the final time trial) place, but in the Tour de France he didn't do much. Still Larsson did manage to put in a good performance in the time trial on stage 9, before withdrawing on stage 11 due to back problems. Despite "feeling like shit" the day before the time trial, Larsson finished 21st and even though that might not be such a good result it still showed that the Swede was about to find his legs again.

Gustav Erik Larsson always performs well at the big one day events!

The Olympic time trial has been the biggest goal for Gustav Erik Larsson this season and even though I strongly doubt he will be able to win it you have to remember that Larsson really knows how to peak at the big one day events. I think he will be in mix...

Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins

Top3: Tony Martin

Outsider: Sylvain Chavanel

Joker: Gustav Erik Larsson

Tour Preview - Stage 2

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Despite two interesting stages with a lot of drama we haven’t really seen anything we didn’t expect. Fabian Cancellara won the prologue like he was supposed to and Peter Sagan did the same in his very first Tour de France - giving a special bike for Stage 2 with “Tourminator” written on the frame. I don’t think much will happen on this stage and anything but a bunch sprint will be a massive surprise, the way I see it.

Favorites:

The good thing is that for once we have a lot of fast guys who can actually win the stage. It’s not just Mark Cavendish anymore. Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel and of course Sagan the Tourminator will all have a crack at it. In the past Cavendish’ team has been taking responsibility early on, starting to bring back the break away, but that won’t happen this year. It’s all for Bradley Wiggins now and therefore it’s up to the other teams to take control. One of those teams are Argos-Shimano, team of the German sprinter Marcel Kittel and despite this being their first Tour de France, Argos-Shimano are to take responsibility. “We know we have one of best sprinters in the race, so we owe to act accordingly”. An impressive statement from a Wild Card team!

The final kilometers towards the finish line are pretty straight forward but not without two roundabouts within the last 2000 meters. Right after the gate to the last kilometer the road bends slightly to the left before the last 600 meters straight out to the finish line. Both Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have a strong lead out train ready to roll and I think whoever of those two taking the lead will bring their sprinter first to the line. Mark Cavendish normally doesn’t do well in the first bunch sprint in the big stage races and with only two guys to help him I think it will be a real power sprinter like Greipel or Kittel who takes the win.

My pick: Marcel Kittel to win Stage 2.

Tour Preview - Prologue

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This year’s Tour de France starts out with 6,4 km prologue in Liege, Belgium. Apparently the city of Liege has paid ASO over 4 million Euros to host the start of the Tour, so let’s hope we are in for a great show from the very start.

Favorites:

Looking at the course it’s difficult not to pick Fabian Cancellara as the big favorite. The technical route suits the Suisse time trial machine perfectly and he should be able to take good advantage of his outstanding bike handling skills. It’s a course that favors the ITT-specialists able to accelerate many times and therefore not exactly Tony Martin’s cup of tea.

In Tour de Suisse Peter Sagan showed he is capable of beating Fabian Cancellara on a technical course but this time there is no uphill section where Sagan can gain a little time on Cancellara. Bradley Wiggins is another good pick for the Top3 and I would be surprised if these riders won’t fight it out for the first yellow jersey of the Tour. If you are looking for an outsider go with Sylvain Chavanel. He is going strong right now and he aims big on this prologue.

My pick: Fabian Cancellara to win the prologue.

Weather:
As of Friday evening it should stay dry around 14:00 CET when Tom Veelers rolls down the start ramp in Liege so let’s hope it won’t change. Wind direction could change a little from SSW to SW giving the late starters a bit more tail wind on the ‘long’ stretch alongside the canal, but it shouldn’t really matter much.

You can find the starting order for the prologue right here.

Favorites for Ronde van Vlaanderen

Finally. I think that’s the most fitting word for a preview of this amazing race. I don’t need to write why Ronde van Vlaanderen is such a fantastic race, reading this blog, you obviously know quite a bit about cycling already.

Instead let’s take a look at the riders who are going to animate the race this Sunday.

Fabian Cancellara
If you want to bet on this race, you better bet on Fabian. For me he is the biggest favorite. He may not always ride very smart tactically, but you simply can’t ignore the fact that he is the strongest rider in the bunch. The race is extra hard this year with difficult laps ending with Paterberg so the chances of an ‘early’ breakaway with ‘secondary riders’ to stay away are very low. I think a small group of maximum 10 riders will get away in the last part of the race and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Cancellara just said good bye to the rest of the favorites like in Strade Bianche and went solo without even attacking. As you can see I feel pretty confident picking Spartacus as winner of Ronde van Vlaanderen 2012.

Sep Vanmarcke
If you watched Dwars door Vlaandere and E3 Harelbeke you saw Sep Vanmarcke being one of, if not the strongest rider in the peloton. Everytime one of the favorites tried to attack, Vanmarcke was the first rider to follow. Vanmarcke has already shown he can stay with the favorites – and beat them – when he outsprinted Tom Boonen and won Omloop and if he shows same strength on Sunday as he has been showing the last couple of weeks he should be a strong candidate for the podium!

Tom Boonen
I said it back in December last year I still stand by those words. Tom Boonen is back! He has the strongest team - without any doubts whatsoever - and he can outsprint any of the other favorites if it should come down to a sprint. So why isn’t he my number one favorite? Because of his (lack of) tactical sense. Boonen often tends to show off too much and waste a lot of energies early in the race or he ends up working too hard in the end. He made that mistake in Omloop and he paid for it. I would be happy to see Tom Boonen win Ronde van Vlaanderen once again, but against Cancellara, who hungers for revenge from last year, I really have my doubts.

Matti Breschel
Another great rider who is back again is Matti Breschel. Being one of the strongest riders in 2010 “dancing, almost whistling up the hills” (words of Gilbert) his 2011-season got ruined by one injury after the other. Matti showed in Volta Algarve that his sprinting legs are back in shape and in Milano – San Remo he was just a few meters short of joining the winning trio on Poggio. In E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem he seems to miss the last few percentages on the hills but still managed to get 11th and 3rd in the final sprint. Matti Breschel knows how important it is for Rabobank finally go get a big win this season and normally he works very well under pressure. I think (and hope) he will able to stay with the best on Sunday and even though he may not win, top5 should be a safe bet.

Björn Leukemans
Last up among my personal favorites and outsiders for the win in Ronde van Vlaanderen is Björn Leukemans. Vacansoleil-DCM has been outstanding this season and if they can take that with them to the cobblestone classics, team leader Björn Leukemans is a man to watch out for. Last year he was great with top10 in all four Sunday-classics and that even despite having a lot of bad luck. Leukemans recently said he is living like a munch the last weeks up to the big races. Sleeping alone, going to bed hungry and not inviting his friends around if they are just remotely close to getting sick. “I don’t have the talent like Cancellara and Boonen so I have to do everything else that I can”, he explained. In E3 Harelbeke he made the front group with Cancellara, Boonen, Pozzato and Vanmarcke and that shows the shape is there. I don’t expect Leukemans to win this race, but like with Matti Breschel, I think he is good pick for a top5 spot.