World Championship - Time Trial Preview & Favorites

Tony Martin got the best possible start to this year’s World Championship when he and Omega Pharma Quickstep won the opening team time trial last Sunday. Now it’s time for the individual time trial and just like the last two years, the strong German is the top favorite.

Except for a slightly different finish, the course is the same as for the team time trial. It’s a power course for the big engines and basically it’s all about speed. The small hill in the beginning won’t matter much as the following 50 km are flat. Only the final few kilometers inside of Florence are technical but the riders doing the team time trial already know how to take the corners without losing time.

Half a year ago, I had no doubts Tony Martin would win this race and take his third consecutive World Champion title. However, I must admit Bradley Wiggins has been extremely strong recently. Both Martin and Wiggins are best on a course like this one and I think it will be a close fight. Still, I’ll stick with Tony Martin as my number one favorite. He’s been training on the course, he did the team time trial and he knows how to take the tricky corners in Florence. According to the German, he’s in better shape than last year and he feels more prepared. He got a massive motivation boost when OPQS won the team time trial and he’s now very confident.

While Tony Martin has had the same approach towards the time trials within the last handful of years, Bradley Wiggins' focus has changed completely. He went from being a time trial specialist to winning the Tour de France. In this process, Wiggins lost a lot of weight and he had to comprise his time trial training. After his failed attempt to win the Giro d’Italia this year, Wiggins now seems to have given up on winning another Grand Tour. He’s now 7-8 kg heavier than when he won the Tour and since June, he’s only been focusing on his time trial. In his comeback race after the Giro, Bradley Wiggins won the 37 km time trial in Tour of Poland when he distanced Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney with a minute.  Last week he won the short time trial in Tour of Britain without any problems and according to Wiggins, he too feels a lot better than last year. In 2012, Wiggins won the Olympic time trial just 10 days after winning the Tour de France. This time the World Champion time trial comes just three days after Tour of Britain. It will be very interesting to see if it’s enough time for Wiggins to switch focus and beat Tony Martin. Personally, I doubt it.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara will take the bronze medal this Wednesday. The way I see it, Cancellara is a strong candidate but riders like Taylor Phinney and Adrian Malori have a solid chance of making podium as well. As stated in my preview for the team time trial, Fabian Cancellara’s main focus in on the road race on Sunday. No other top favorites are doing all three races and if Cancellara wants to win on Sunday, it may not be the best idea to test his limits on a course like this and take risks in the tricky corners. Cancellara has worked hard to get better on the climbs, we saw that in Vuelta España, and it means he has lost some speed on the long flat parts. He’s still among the very best in the world but against Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, I honestly can’t see him win.

Last year Taylor Phinney did the time trial of his life when he finished second to Tony Martin. Phinney was only six seconds from beating Tony Martin and becoming World Champion and now he’s out for revenge. He lives near the course and knows it like the back of his hand. Every time Phinney is out training on his time trial bike, he’s riding on part of the course and I doubt any of the riders starting tomorrow knows it better than he does. BMC had big ambitions for the team time trial but failed to live up their own expectations. They finished fourth and Taylor Phinney didn’t hide his disappointment. Wednesday the young American has another chance to show his potential and personally, I have Phinney down for a spot on the final podium.

The Italians haven’t had much to cheer for in the time trials for a while. Marco Pinotti was on his way to medal last year but then crashed in the final. Right now Adriano Malori is the Italians best hope and on a good day, he could surprise and make podium. Malori is getting better and better every year and this season, he has been very close to Tony Martin a couple of times. In Tirreno-Adriatico, Malori finished second in the final time trial, just six seconds after Martin. In time trial in Tour de Romandie, Malori finished second again this time 16 seconds after Tony Martin. It’s worth noticing that in this time trial Malori put in 18 seconds on the overall winner Chris Froome. The time trial in Florence is obviously a big goal for Adriano Malori and he’s been working hard in order to deliver a top performance this Wednesday. He knows the competition is fierce but if some of the other candidates strike out, Malori will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

The five mentioned riders are also the five riders starting last. For the complete starting order click here.

Among the super jokers for a medal we'll find riders like the Vacansoleil-DCM duo Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra. In the Tour de France this year, De Gendt started right before Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to not to change that fact. Fighting to keep Tony Martin behind him, Thomas De Gendt put in such a strong performance that he finished third on the stage. This time, his teammate Lieuwe Westra is starting right after De Gendt. Westra isn't on the same level as Tony Martin, but I still expect him to do Top10 this Wednesday. In fact, Lieuwe Westra says that being the first to catch Thomas De Gendt in a time trial is an extra motivation for him. It will be interesting to see how the two - soon to be - former teammates will perform against each other.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

This is the first of two individual time trials in this year’s Giro d’Italia and it’s the day Bradley Wiggins has to make his mark on the race. These 54.8 km against the clock will change the general classification completely and the tiny climbers will end up losing many minutes on this stage. Most of the riders in this race have probably never done such a long time trial in a Grand Tour and it’ difficult to predict how their legs - and mind - will react to this brutal test.

The time trial is hard right from the beginning and if the distance wasn’t a tough enough enemy already, the last 3 km will be. After more than 50 km on the TT bike, the riders face the final uphill part towards the line. It starts out gently with 3.6% but the last kilometer kicks up with 13%. After such a long stage, and Stage 7 still in the legs, many riders will hit the wall and cross the line as if it was the top of Zoncolan.

Talking about favorites, there is really only one. Bradley Wiggins should be in a league of his own for this stage but it all depends on his condition after the crash on Stage 7. Wiggins tried out the course a couple of weeks before the Giro started and said he found it extremely hard. I have no doubts Bradley Wiggins will win this stage if he’s ready, and now he must be even more motivated than before. He’s 1:32 min after Beñat Intxausti and 1:27 min after Nibali. Before Stage 7, I had Wiggins to beat both of these with about 2 minutes, so don’t be surprised if he ends up in Maglia Rosa after all.

Vincenzo Nibali isn’t known for being a time trial specialist but on a course like this one, he should be able to fight for the best positions. Nibali has been working hard on the TT bike the last couple of years and even though he can’t match Wiggins on the flat parts, he will be able to push hard in the uphill sections. He finished 9^th in the time trial in the Tour de France last year and he started out strong in Argentina with a 4^th place this year. I think Nibali will be satisfied if he doesn’t lose more than 2 minutes to Bradley Wiggins in this stage and if so, he should be able to do Top5. On a great day, he could make Top3.

Top3 is definitely also an option for Cadel Evans. I didn’t give the Australian many chances in the my overall preview since he’s aiming at the Tour this year. Still, he has been very strong in the first week and he could very well end making another good result in this time trial. It’s difficult to predict how Cadel Evans will do against the clock since he hasn’t really been going all out in the ITTs this year, but if he has a good day, he could make Top3 and maybe even take the jersey?

I’ve said many times that I expect big things from Beñat Intxausti in this Giro d’Italia and after taking the Pink Jersey he now has a chance to gain more time GC rivals like Scarponi, Gesink, Santambrogio, Kiserlovski etc.  Intxausti is a very good time trialist and he always gets better when the terrain is tough. He has never done such a long time trial before in his career and that does talk against him, but I still think he will surprise you and make a great result. It won’t be easy to keep the jersey but it’s definitely not impossible. May 23^rd marks the day of Xavier Tondo’s death and so close to the day, I’m sure Intxausti won’t feel alone on the bike despite the long distance. He dedicated the jersey to Tondo and his grandfather after Stage 7, and both will be with him in spirit on Stage 8.

Other riders to look out for in this stage are Fredrik Kessiakoff and Manuele Boaro. Kessiakoff knows what it takes to win a time trial in a Grand Tour and after starting out the Giro a bit sick, he now seems to be back in shape. Manuele Boaro is a very talented time trialist and he has shown great legs the last couple of weeks. He didn’t impress much in the time trial in Tour de Romandie but I’m sure he has been targeting this one for a while. Teammate Mads Christensen has also been very strong in his recent time trials and I think he could do Top10 in this one on a good day.

Dario Cataldo would have been another good pick for a Top3 place in this stage, but being sick since the TTT, Cataldo doesn’t seem ready for such a hard fight against the clock already. Naturally, Cataldo will be eager to show off his Italian Champion jersey but being only at 70% - his words - right now, I doubt he has what it takes. In theory, Rigoberto Uran could do very well, but with Team Sky backing Bradley Wiggins 100%, Uran and the rest of ‘gregarios’ could take it easy and save some energy for the mountains.

Last rider I would like to point out is Taylor Phinney. The young American seems like a good pick but like Cataldo, also Phinney has been sick recently. Of course, he will give it his all, but it won’t be easy to perform well in this time trial if you’re not 100%.

You'll find the starting order for the time trial here.

Favorite: Bradley Wiggins

Top3 pick: Vincenzo Nibali

Jokers: Fredrik Kessiakoff / Manuele Boaro

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 8:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Paris-Roubaix: Preview and Favorites

Last year, Fabian Cancellara crashed out of Ronde van Vlaanderen and saw Tom Boonen winning both RvV and Paris-Roubaix. This year, Boonen crashed out of RvV while Fabian Cancellara won the race. Cancellara has been outstanding the last couple of weeks and there is really only one favorite for Paris-Roubaix this year.

Unfortunately, Fabian Cancellara saw the need to spin the legs in Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. He crashed in the race and so did he again the next day, while checking out the cobblesstone sections for Sunday. Two crashes in two days and suddenly Cancellara is not the massive favorite he was as after winning Ronde van Vlaanderen. He is still the favorite, but strong riders like Thor Hushovd, Taylor Phinney, Juan-Antonio Flecha, Ian Stannard, Edvald Boasson Hagen etc. are now more likely to win than they were just a few days ago.

I would imagine Radioshack to take control like they did last Sunday but they have to be careful. BMC and Team Sky have two very strong teams with multiple winner candidates and Radioshack can’t close all gaps by themselves. In the end it will be up to Fabian Cancellara himself to take action and if he still feels the recent crashes, he won’t be as unbeatable has he looked in Ronde van Vlaanderen. I still think Cancellara will win Paris-Roubaix, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a BMC or Team Sky rider crosses the line first on the velodrome.

I have a feeling Taylor Phinney will end on the podium. Last year, all he was thinking about was the Giro d’Italia prologue and he absolutely killed it. This winter has been all about peaking in Paris-Roubaix for Taylor Phinney and even though it won’t be as “easy” as winning the Giro prologue, the young American knows how to perform under his own pressure. Phinney has been naming Thor Hushovd as BMC’s designated team leader numerous times the last couple of weeks, but I personally think, Phinney will end as best BMC rider on Sunday. He’s incredibly strong on the cobblestones and very fast on the line. If Taylor Phinney arrives to the velodrome in the first group, I think he will win this race.

Paris-Roubaix is also the last chance for Team Sky to prove their untraditional Classics training was a good idea. It’s easy to criticize them, but we must remember that Geraint Thomas crashes in both Milano-San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen. In Milano-San Remo, Ian Stannard took over and did a great race and last Sunday, Edvald Boasson Hagen almost got on Sagan’s wheel when he and Cancellara went away in the final. EBH couldn’t stay with the strong duo on Kwaremont, but I think he will be better on the cobblestones. Like Phinney, Boasson Hagen is very fast on the line and I expect him to be among the best riders on Sunday.

Like always, I’ll like to point out a joker. This time it’s Matthieu Ladagnous. The big Frenchman has been very strong so far this season and the last couple of week he’s been near the front at all time. He was in the winning break with Sagan in Gent-Wevelgem (ended 6^th) and he took 2^nd place in the sprint behind the podium in Ronde van Vlaanderen last Sunday. Ladagnous finished 12^th in Paris-Roubaix last year and he is very eager to do even better this year. He probably won’t win this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s among the riders fighting for a spot on the podium.

For other strong riders with a fast finish, look to Lars Boom, Sébastien Turgot, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Jurgen Roelandts.

Winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Podium picks: Taylor Phinney / Edvald Boasson Hagen

Joker: Matthieu Ladagnous

For live coverage of this year's Paris-Roubaix go to steephill.tv

Favorites for Tour of Qatar

Let's take a quick look at the favorites for Tour of Qatar. Mark Cavendish seems to be out of the picture after picking up a flue on his way to Doha.

Tom Boonen
I have said it many times before and I won't mind saying it again. Tom Boonen will have a great 2012-season! He showed in Argentina he is in good shape already and is normally very good on the windy stages in Qatar. Boonen won the first stage last year and could very well do that again this year. If you gamble, put some money on Tornado Tom to win the race overall.

Mark Renshaw
I'm sure Mark Renshaw is a little bit disappointed by his results in Tour Down Under. He came in good shape with high ambitions but he didn't stand a chance against Andre Greipel. Still he ended off nicely with a second place on the last stage and as defending champion in Qatar there are no doubts he will be extremely motivated. Renshaw was great last year and even though the team time trial may not be in his favor he should be among the three fastest guys in the race. 

Fabian Cancellara
The team time trial is definitely in his favor. RadioShack-Trek has a very strong team for that disciplin and usually Cancellara doesn't get dropped in the wind either. He might not have a chance against the fast guys in the sprints but if Cancellara is in the top5 and eyes an oppotunity to attack, I'm sure he will take it. I don't think he will win the race but a podium spot is in reach I would say.

As outsiders for the overall classification I would like to point out Daniel Oss, Taylor Phinney and John Degenkolb as the best picks.

Elite Men Time Trial - Preview

Okay, so now it's time for the final time trial at this year's World Champions; the Elite Men, and that is with two major favorites in Tony Martin & Fabian Cancellara. It seems almost unthinkable that any other rider will win, but we still have the fight for the 3rd place to look forward to with a lot on excitement! 

Among those riders I would like to point out my own personal favorite Taylor Phinney and another youngster Jesse Sergent. I don't think that Bradley Wiggins or David Millar have what it takes to get that 3rd place this time, but look out for Richie Porte, who very well could take another medal for Australia!

Unfortunately Denmark doesn't have any podium candidates this time, since Alex Rasmussen got suspended. Michael Mørkøv and Jakob Fuglsang will be motivated as ever, no doubt about that, but against the riders I just mentioned I don't give them many chances. Top10 would be great, so let's hope for that!