Tour of Qatar: Preview & Favorites

Looking at the start list you may think the Spring Classics are starting early this season. Thanks to the heavy wind and sunny weather, every rider aiming at the cobblestones classics want to be here. The hotels are the best the riders will see during the season and despite the lack of hills - or turns for that matter - Tour of Qatar now counts as an important race for all teams with high hopes in March and April.

There is no need for stage profiles as they are all pancake flat. Five stages in the heavy cross wind expected to end in a sprint plus a team time trial on the second day. Tom Boonen normally owns this race and in his absence we have to look to a couple of other of the big contenders for Paris-Roubaix later this year.

First up is Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky have had a new approach to the season training very hard during the winter and we already saw what that meant when Geraint Thomas showed off in Tour Down Under. It’s not often you see a track rider drop the climbers on 20% as Thomas did in Australia. Edvald Boasson Hagen didn’t seem to hit it off Down Under, but he did put in a good effort on Willunga Hill for Thomas and managed to take third place on the finale stage. The Norwegian wonderboy aims big at the Spring Classics this season and after getting the legs ready Down Under, I think he will be the man to beat in Qatar. Team Sky have a great team for the TTT and if Eddy mingles with the best in the mass sprints as well I can’t really see who should beat him.

Only guy I can think of is Mark Cavendish.  Quickstep are always on top of their game in this race and must be one of the favorites for the TTT as well. Cavendish is not a stranger to Tour of Qatar, but he always seems to have bad luck or get caught in the wind when it counts. Quickstep have guys like Terpstra and Stybar to keep Cavendish safe, but both of those might as well give a go themselves in the challenging weather conditions. If you are looking for a joker for the overall classification, I’ll recommend Niki Terpstra.

No wonder the cross wind plays a
huge factor in Tour of Qatar...

I said we had to look for Paris-Roubaix contender to find the overall winner and I know Mark Cavendish doesn’t fit this category but the next one will. Fabian Cancellara has always been good in Qatar and with a strong team for the TTT and last year in mind, Cancellara will definitely be a marked man. Last year Tom Boonen started his amazing season by winning in Qatar and hungry for revenge Fabian Cancellara might as well do the same and show the world that he is ready for the classics. The race normally splits up many times during the six days and only a few riders know when to be in front as well as Cancellara do. Radioshack need a new beginning after Bruyneel and the best man to give them that is Swiss.

Last one of my top favorites for the overall win is Taylor Phinney. The young American has set Paris-Roubaix as his goal big goal this season and helped by a very strong team and a fast finish on the line, Phinney should be named as one of the main contenders. As many other teams, BMC are sending their Classics riders to Qatar and having Marcus Burghardt, Michael Schär and Greg Van Avermaet to help Phinney stay in front and out of troubles, I think BMC will be one of the controlling teams in this race. Phinney may not have what it takes to beat Cavendish, Guardini or Degenkolb in a sprint finish, but he is consistent and fast and says he’s coming into the race “strong and confident”.

For what concerns the sprint field this may not be as great as in Tour Down Under, but with names like Mark Cavendish, John Degenkolb, Andrea Guardini, Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani on the start list, it should be five very interesting days. Mark Cavendish showed in Argentina that he is ready to win early this season when he won the first stage of Tour San Luis and I expect him to take the first stage in Qatar as well. Andre Greipel turned out to be a level - or two - above everybody else in Australia and I’m certain Cavendish is eager to show he’s up there too.

There aren't many spectators in the dessert for Tour of Qatar
and it wouldn't be a lie to say most of them aren't human.

Andrea Guardini didn’t really hit it off in Tour Down Under and even though he may not be one of the best in the cross wind, he should be able to try his luck in a couple of stages. If he manages to stick to the right wheel in the final, he could be the best pick to beat Cavendish.

If not Guardini then John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano have always aimed at getting ‘the best leadout train in the world’ and they showed last year what they are capable of with Marcel Kittel and Degenkolb. Yet it all went wrong in Tour Down Under. Not a single day did they manage to time it well so you can be sure they too are eager to get started. John Degenkolb was outstanding in the Vuelta last year and without Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano could very well be the leading team in the sprints.

For other fast guys look to Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Heinrich Haussler, Kenny Van Hummel, Yauheni Hutarovich and Sacha Modolo. Especially Modolo, who showed to be very fast in Argentina.

That is for me. As always I will leave you with my pre-top10 for the overall classification.

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen

2. Fabian Cancellara

3. Taylor Phinney

4. Niki Terpstra

5. Mark Cavendish (winner pick if he stays up front in the cross wind)

6. Greg Van Avermaet

7. Juan-Antonio Flecha

8. Geraint Thomas

9. Heinrich Haussler

10. Alexander Kristoff

For stage previews, winnerpicks and jokers make sure to follow me on Twitter @mrconde

TDU Preview - Stage 2

As predicted nobody could touch Andre Greipel on stage 1, but Arnaud Démare sure was the strongest of the rest, taking 2^nd place after an impressive kick in the final. Now it’s time to switch focus from the sprinters to the puncheurs as Tour Down Under takes on the first real struggles for the GC contenders.

Corkscrew Road is a steep one to get over this early in the season and despite it only being 2,4 km the average gradient of 9,5% will make a huge impact on the final classification. Every team with GC ambitions will try to deliver their guy in front and with a  super fast descent towards the climb and a narrow turn as it starts, we are in for a hectic - and probably very chaotic – final kilometers before it goes uphill.

Looking at the climb the steepest part is at beginning with sections of 20% as the riders later struggle through 4 hairpins before it evens out (about 5%) near the top. The Australian National Team have been training on these roads many times, so you can use all the local riders will be eager to try their luck. Especially Simon Gerrans who seemed very happy with taking 3 bonus seconds on stage 1. So did Phillipe Gilbert and I think it will be a fight between these two and a handful of other riders for the win in Rostrevor.

It will be a fast finish as the last 7 kilometers from the top of Corkscrew Road are downhill towards the finishing line and according to the race organizers, riders are set to reach a speed of almost 100 km/h on their way to the line. Still the wind can be an issue as a head wind will in the valley will make it difficult for a small group to keep the peloton at bay.

Except for the Australian riders you have to keep an eye on the Movistar team. My pre-pick for the final podium - and a strong contender for the this stage - Eros Capecchi, stroke out on Stage 1 (lost 1:19 min after preparing the sprint for JJ Rojas) so I’m not sure what to make of him, even though the finish is perfect for his characteristics. He could be man for a morning break, but with the bonus seconds being so important it will be very difficult for an early breakaway to make it. Guys like Javier Moreno, José Herrada and Giovanni Visconti all have what it takes to attack in this terrain, but again, it won’t be easy to drop Gerrans and Gilbert.

Edvald Boasson Hagen must be mentioned among the big favorites for the stage too, but he needs to stay with the explosive riders on the steep parts of Corkscrew Road. One could argue that he's strong enough on the descent to catch up, but don't forget that Gilbert too is very good on the downhill sections. Another chance for EBH is if ends up in a sprint, but unless there's a head wind on the final kilometers I doubt it will come down to that.

Thomas De Gendt showed he wants to challenge the favorites in the GC as he took bonus seconds on stage 1 as well and being stronger than normally this early in the season, he could be a dangerous outsider for the stage and for the overall classification. In my “Favorites”-piece I’ve put down Tom-Jelte Slagter for a top5 spot in the GC and I think he will try to attack on Corkscrew Road. He’s strong on the steep parts and actually fast on the line too. If anyone was to drop Gerrans and Gilbert on Corkscrew Road my money would be on Slagter or Moreno.

If you are looking for a super joker, try Tim Wellens. The young Belgian is a great climber and fast on the line as well. Lotto-Belisol have been in Australia for a while, getting ready for Tour Down Under and I wouldn't be surprise to see Wellens mingle with the best on Corkscrew Road. 

Winnerpicks: Phillipe Gilbert / Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Javier Moreno / Tom-Jelte Slagter

Favorites for Tour Down Under

As usual the new cycling season kicks off Down Under in Australia and even though it looks like a sprinter's delight the winner will be found among those who can climb.

Last year Alejandro Valverde handed the victory to Simon Gerrans when he stopped pedaling on the final meters in Stirling. Valverde later won the uphill finish on Willunga Hill in front of Gerrans, but because of the lost bonus seconds in Stirling, the comeback Spaniard had to see home soil favorite Gerrans take the overall win.

This year Simon Gerrans is back to defend the title, but Alejandro Valverde is missing and to be honest I doubt Gerrans will be able to make a double. Last year GreenEDGE had to win overall as an Australian team on home soil in their first season, but this time around they have other goals during the season. Of course Simon Gerrans will be eager to repeat what he did last year, but I see at least a handful of other riders ready to challenge Gerrans on Corkscrew Road and Willunga Hill.

First up is Phillipe Gilbert. Showing off his rainbow jersey for the first time this season I expect him to win at least one stage during the week. Gilbert says he’s very motivated and eager to get going and according the World Champion himself, the steep climb on Corkscrew Road shouldn’t be enough to drop him. As always the bonus seconds will be very important for the overall classification and if Gilbert can take a stage win (probably in Stirling) and stay in the front on Willunga Hill and Corkscrew Road, I think he will be very tough to beat.

My other personal favorite for the final podium is Eros Capecchi. I’ve had a good eye for Capecchi for many years now, so far without him showing his full potential, but I have a feeling 2013 will be his year. This is his first season with Movistar and according to Capecchi he aims to start out this year in a strong way. It’s true that Movistar have many cards to play in this race (Visconti, Moreno, Amador, Rojas & Herrada all capable of taking a stage win) but being fast on the line, strong uphill and great on the descents I think Capecchi will be one to watch for the overall classification.

Among the other GC contenders I would like to point out Tom-Jelte Slagter, Matt Lloyd, Peter Velits and of course Edvald Boasson Hagen. While the three first riders all have their strength in the uphill sections, Eddy has the advantage of being in the mix in the three predicted sprint finishes and thereby take some valuable bonus seconds. Last year he wasn’t really on top of his game in Tour Down Under, but having trained very hard towards the Classic season, I think he’ll be able to stay near the front when the more explosive riders make their moves.

For the mass sprints I think it’s clear to everybody that Andre Greipel is the man to beat. Lotto-Belisol did everything right in the People’s Choice Classic race and unless Argos-Shimano manage to take the front and lead out Marcel Kittel the same way, it won’t be a problem for the German Gorilla to take a couple of stage wins.

Personally I’m looking forward to seeing how youngster Andrew Fenn will do against the big sprinters. Same goes for Steele Von Hoff and Jonathan Cantwell. I have a feeling Cantwell will surprise you in this race with some good sprints. Team Saxo-Tinkoff sure seem eager to put him in the right position.

I will be posting previews for all the stages the evening (CET) before the stage starts so instead of talking much more about the route, I will leave you with my Top10 for the overall classification.

1.       Phillipe Gilbert

2.       Eros Capecchi

3.       Simon Gerrans

4.       Edvald Boasson Hagen

5.       Tom-Jelte Slagter

6.       Matt Lloyd

7.       Peter Velits

8.       Javier Moreno

9.       Chris-Anker Sørensen

10.     Gorka Izagirre

Favorites for Tour Down Under 2012

The cycling season is finally about to start with Santos Tour Down Under and to celebrate that I’ve made a little list with my three personal favorites for the overall classification. I will most likely give tips to selected stages during the race so don't forget to check back soon!


1. Simon Gerrans
The GreenEDGE-captain has already won the race (back in 2006) and seems to be as strong as ever this early in the season. His impressive win in the Australian championships showed that Gerrans has the right punch in his legs right now and with the finishes in Stirling (stage2) and on Willunga Hill (stage5) this year’s route really seems to fit the little Aussie. Not to metion that Simon Gerrans must be more motivated than ever riding in the colors of the new GreenEDGE team on home soil.

2. Michael Rogers
Next rider up is another Aussie. Michael Rogers lost his 2011-season to injuries but is now back in shape and ready to win. Like Simon Gerrans, Rogers also showed great legs in the national championships, on the time trial, where he ended 3rd only 16 seconds behind U-23 World Champion Luke Durbridge. One could argue that Team Sky already have Edvald Boasson Hagen for the overall classification, but according to the Norwegian it is Michael Rogers who is the captain. Rogers wants to win and I have no doubts his team will back him. Remember Rogers isn’t that slow in a sprint in a smaller group either. Look out for him on Willunga Hill.

3. Alejandro Valverde
After being out for two years Alejandro Valverde is now right back in the peloton and according to his teammates he is extremely motivated to show he still has got what it takes to win races. Normally Valverde would be the main favorite a race like this year’s Tour Down Under, but after being out for two years it’s difficult to predict. I think Valverde will be ready, but it might take a couple of months before he’s got his old race rhythm back. Stages like the one in Sterling and on Willunga Hill will show just how good the Spaniard is already.