Vuelta a España: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Saturday's opening team time trial ended like we expected. OPQS set best time but in the end, Radioshack and Astana turned out to be a bit stronger. Of course it didn’t help OPQS that they had to wait a couple of times when Tony Martin made a gap to the rider behind him. Janez Brajkovic is first rider in the Red Jersey and that’s a perfect way to start out this race for the Slovenian rider. Brajkovic is without a contract for next year and he’s now using the Vuelta to show how great of a rider he is. Naturally, Vincenzo Nibali is the team leader, but Brajkovic hopes to make a good result overall while supporting this captain.

Usually it’s not an advantage for the big favorites to get the leader’s jersey already after the first stage. Therefore we often see a breakaway making it all the way early in the race. On paper, this second stage looks good for a break but since Brajkovic wants to get maximum attention in this race, I doubt he will give up the jersey.

The 177.7 km from Pontevedra to Baiona takes the riders south alongside the Galician coast. The TV-viewers are in for a spectacular view but the riders won’t have time to enjoy it. There aren’t many flat meters in this area and even though the profile doesn’t look very tough, it won’t be an easy day in the saddle.

The first categorized climb of this year’s Vuelta comes after 62.9 km and we should see a breakaway in front at this time. For teams like Euskaltel, Caja Rural, NetApp & Vancansoleil-DCM it will be important to get the KOM jersey and I think all four teams will be represented in the morning break.

Alto do Monte da Groba. 11 km - 5.6 % avg.

The stage finish with an 11 km long ascent up to Alto do Monte da Groba. The climb is steep in the beginning with parts of 10 % but then it evens out for about 4 km with gradients of 2-4 %. The final two kilometers have an average gradient of 7.5 % and especially the last corner is very steep. If you manage to get a little gap in this right hand corner, you should end up winning the stage with only 300 meters to go.

Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez (Katusha) didn’t have a great start to the race. Movistar lost Beñat Inxtausti early due a mechanical problem and Katusha had to wait for Dani Moreno as he was the 5^th and last rider in the end. Movistar lost 29 seconds to Vincenzo Nibali and Astana while Purito already is 59 seconds behind Nibali in the GC. There is still a long way to Madrid but Purito needs to win seconds every time he can. This means that Katusha most likely will try to control the stage in order to set up Purito for the win and the 10 bonus seconds on the line. Movistar should be able to help out as well since Valverde is very fast too.  The two Spaniards are definitely the big favorites this Sunday.

The final right hand corner towards the finishing line.

Had this been the Giro, I would have put Carlos Betancur down as one of the favorites. But, as I wrote in my overall preview, Betancur didn’t have an ideal preparation to the Vuelta. He’s been sick and he doesn’t look too good right now. I’m sure Betancur will be flying by the end of the race but I doubt we will see him in the very front already. 

His countryman, Sergio Henao, however is one of the outsiders who can win this stage. Henao has a strong kick and if he times it perfectly, he may be able to get a jump on Purito and Valverde if the two favorites start looking at each other. It’s also worth mentioning that Team Sky won’t be taking their usual role in a Grand Tour. Astana, Movistar and Katusha have the three big favorites for the overall win and therefore Team Sky don’t have to work as much as usually. They can save energy and wait for the right time to attack. Personally I think Dario Cataldo will have a great Vuelta and I won’t be surprised if he attacks and makes something big on Alto do Monte da Groba.  

In my overall preview I named Tomasz Marczynski as one of my jokers for the GC. The polish rider is very aggressive on the climbs and if he sees a moment to attack in the final, he won’t think twice. His teammate Wout Poels is in great shape right now and in those two, Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of very strong outsiders for the win. Luisle Sanchez is back on the big scene again and he must be eager to show himself in his home country. The final kilometer may be too steep for Sanchez but on a good day he could give Belkin something to cheer for after the team lost Theo Bos before the race even started.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 2, Laura picks Sergio Henao to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España 2013 - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the third and final Grand Tour of the season. This year’s Vuelta a España is a real climbers delight with no less than 12 stages finishing uphill. The favorites are many and there are no doubts that this is the most open of the three Grand Tours this year.

Once again, the race starts out with a team time trial but compared to the last couple of years, the time differences will be much bigger this time. We have an uphill finish already on the second day and this means you can’t afford to start out too far off your game. The first sprint stage isn’t due until Stage 5 and we can expect relatively big time differences in the overall classification already at this point. However, it’s nothing compared to the last week. Six out of the last eight stages finish on the top of a climb and with Angliru on the penultimate day, nothing is certain before the final stage to Madrid.

For this year’s Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, it was pretty easy picking out the few big favorites. Without Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali had no real competition in the Giro and since Alberto Contador wasn’t as strong as usually in the Tour, Chris Froome wasn’t really threatened at any point in the Tour. This Vuelta, however, is wide open. Vincenzo Nibali is my personal favorite for the overall win but it won’t be easy to repeat his 2010-performance. I expect Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez, Ivan Basso, Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez to fight for the Red Jersey and I’m sure a we will see a couple of outsiders in the mix as well.

I don’t remember a Grand Tour with so many strong riders fighting for Top10. Just by a quick glans of the start list, I see at least 25 riders with an actual chance of finishing within the ten first. Veterans like Chris Horner and Michele Scarponi both start out the Vuelta with podium ambitions and even though I doubt it will happen, I won’t rule them out as possible Top5 in Madrid.

These are the 21 stages of this year's Vuelta a España. 

Another very interesting ‘veteran’ is Ivan Basso. This season has been a nightmare for former Giro d’Italia winner and he’s now hoping to make it all right with a good performance in the Vuelta. Usually you never see Ivan Basso until it really counts. This year Chris Froome won everything leading up the Tour. Basso's preparation is completely different. He knows how to prepare in his own way and he always manages to deliver when it’s time. Still, in Tour of Poland Basso finished fifth on the first mountain stage and without doing much more in the race, he took 8^th place overall. In Vuelta a Burgos he decided to test himself on the final mountain stage and he looked very strong when he dropped Vincenzo Nibali to finish third on Lagunas de Neila. Ivan Basso is not great on the short steep finishes but this Vuelta is lot more than that, and I’m sure Basso will make a great race and finish in the top.

Originally, I had Carlos Betancur down for a podium place but the Colombian climber has been sick recently and therefore hasn’t been able to prepare the way he wanted. Also, he hasn’t raced since the Giro. For Betancur, the World Champions in Italy is the big goal for this second part of the season. He may not start out this Vuelta in great shape but I’m sure he will be flying by the end of the race. It could easily be enough to make Top10 overall but I doubt he’ll be a player for the podium. Another strong GC rider from Ag2r is Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian climber finished 7^th overall in Tour of Poland and I expect him do very well in this Vuelta.

A Colombian rider has finished 2^nd overall in the first two Grand Tours of 2013 and in case Carlos Betancur isn’t ready, it’s up to Sergio Henao to keep up the tradition. Henao started out this year in a very strong way by winning the mountain stage in Volta ao Algarve. He then went on to win a stage in Vuelta Pais Vasco, where he finished 3^rd overall, before taking second place in Flèche Wallone. As expected, he faded in the end of the Giro but recently he looked strong in Tour of Poland with a 5^th place overall. Last year, Sergio Henao finished 14^th in the Vuelta after helping out team leader Chris Froome. This year, Henao is the leader and he has a very strong team to support him. Dario Cataldo - who I think will do very well in this race - and Rigoberto Uran will be at his service in the mountains. Team Sky have finished 2^nd (Uran, Giro) and 1^st (Froome, Tour) in the last two Grand Tours and they are eager to continue that streak. Both Purito and Valverde had to dig deep in the Tour de France and in case they end up paying for that in the final week of the Vuelta, Henao and others will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

This year’s Vuelta will be the last one with Euskaltel-Euskadi on the start list. The orange color of the Basque team will be dearly missed in the mountains but not just yet. With Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Nieve, Igor Antón and Mikel Landa among the nine starters, Euskaltel show they are ready to fight. The goal is to put Samuel Sanchez on the final podium in Madrid and it won’t be a surprise if they succeed. Sanchez is experienced and already knows what it takes to make Top3 in the Vuelta. He should be able to gain some time on his rivals in the individual time trial and if he hits his top level, he won’t be easy to drop in the mountains either.

Before I end, I’ll quickly mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. The Danish team has a strong line up with Roman Kreuziger, Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. When announcing the team, DS Tristan Hoffman said he saw Kreuziger as the natural leader. However, the Czech rider himself says he won’t be targeting the overall classification. Kreuziger has already had a long and very successful season and he’s now focusing on the World Champions. Instead of going for the GC, Kreuziger will aim at a stage win and to help out Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. Especially Roche is eager to perform well. The Irishman has been aiming at the Vuelta the whole season and after dropping a few kilos, he’s now not afraid of talking about Top5 overall. It will be interesting to see if he can live up to his own expectations.  

The map of this year's Vuelta a España starting in Galicia and finishing in Madrid after 21 stages.

As always, I have a few jokers for you as well. First up is David Arroyo. After more than 10 years on Movistar (and its former names), Arroyo moved to the little Spanish team, Caja Rural for this season. He didn’t do much to show his name in the first part of the year but lately he’s been getting better and better. He came close to winning Vuelta a Burgos overall a few weeks ago and he looked very strong in the mountains. Only super climber Nairo Quintana could distance Arroyo uphill on the final day and now the Spaniard hopes to shine in the Vuelta. David Arroyo surprised everyone when he finished second overall in the Giro d’Italia three years ago. I doubt he can repeat that performance this time but I definitely see him as a strong Top10 candidate. Maybe even more if everything goes his way again.

My second joker for the overall classification is Tomasz Marczynski. It’s a been a great year for Polish cycling and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues in the Vuelta. Last year, Marczynski made a few mistakes in the last week of the race but still managed to finish 13^th overall. There are a lot more candidates this year but I still think Marczynski has what it takes to make Top10. Vacansoleil-DCM are desperately searching for a new sponsor for next year and they bring their strongest team possible to the Vuelta. Riders like Wout Poels, Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra could all lead the team but according to my information, the Dutch team is putting their faith in Tomasz Marczynski.

Other good jokers for the overall classification are Movistar’s three super domestiques; Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi & Beñat Intxausti. Sames goes for Lampre’s [future super] climber Winner Anacona and Team NetApp’s Leopold König.

There are about six stages for the sprinters is this year’s Vuelta a España. Still, we don’t have any super sprinters starting the race. Tyler Farrar will have a unique opportunity to regain status as a “top sprinter” without the competition of Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Sagan etc. etc. Farrar’s rivals will be Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, Theo Bos, Leigh Howard and the youngsters Barry Markus, Michael Matthews and Adrien Petit. Personally, I expect a lot from Barry Markus. He has recently signed a deal with Team Belkin for 2014 saying he wants to learn from Theo Bos. However, in my opinion, he will already show that he is a level above Bos in this Vuelta.

In the beginning, I wrote I saw at least 25 riders with a chance of making Top10 in this race. I’ll leave you with the list of those riders. The order is irrelevant.

Nibali	Majka
Valverde	Arroyo
Purito	Mollema
Basso	Cataldo
Henao	Capecchi
Sanchez	Intxausti
Betancur	Moreno x2
Horner	Zubeldia
Pozzovivo	Marczynski
Roche	Ten Dam
Scarponi	Uran
Pinot	Dan Martin
Landa	De Clercq
Nieve Vanendert	Antón De Gendt

I will be publishing daily Stage Previews during the race. Each preview will be online the evening before the stage starts. For live coverage of Vuelta a España 2013 go to steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

Stage 19 got cancelled completely and that means this is the last chance to change the overall classification. Vincenzo Nibali seems sure to win this Giro d’Italia but the final two spots on the podium are still up for grab.

Unfortunately, this stage too has been modified a lot and the first three big mountains have all been cancelled due to the bad weather. This leaves us with a 210 km long stage with only the final 25 km are kept as planned. A strong morning break over the big climbs would have had a good chance of making it to the line but with this new profile it all comes down to the final climb up to Tre Cime Di Lavaredo.

The first 187.6 km aren’t very challenging but hopefully we will get to see fire some firework already on the first climb up to Passo Tre Croci. This category 2 climb has a steady 7% gradient all the 8 km to the top and if the morning break hasn’t already been caught, this is a good place to finally rail them back in. As I wrote in the preview for Stage 19, I would like to see Lampre take charge and play out Niemiec early on. If he attacks on Passo Tre Croci, it would force BMC and Sky to work hard and without a strong team, Evans would quickly be isolated.

There are about 7 km from the top of Passo Tre Croci to the final climb begins. It starts with a steep kilometer of 10.6% with parts of 18%. Then there is short descent before the final 3 km kicks up with an average (!) gradient of 12.4%. There are parts of nearly 20% with two kilometers to go and the tiny climbers like Sergio Henao, Carlos Betancur and Domenico Pozzovivo will have a big advantage here.

The only leader’s jersey still up for grab is the White Jersey and with only two seconds between Rafal Majka and Carlos Betancur, we should be in for a great show on this final climb. Majka seems to flying right now but these steep percentages surely favors Betancur more than the strong Pole. I would imagine Domenico Pozzovivo to attack first and make the other riders work for the stage win. If they then catch Pozzovivo, Betancur will be ready to counter. Just like we saw it on the stage Uran won earlier in the race.

The final 3 km of the stage.

Samuel Sanchez came close the other day and he's still chasing a stage win that will see him join the club of stage winners in all the three Grand Tours. The steep final part isn't really in Sanchez' favor but he does seem very strong right now and he's always good in the last week.

This being the last mountain stage of the race, I doubt a morning breakaway will make it. The fight for second and third place overall are still so close that every bonus second count and Betancur also knows that he is faster than Majka on the line. Even if Betancur can’t drop Majka on the climb, he can still outsprint him and the take bonus seconds he needs. 

Many odd things have already occurred in this Giro and of course, it’s not impossible a morning break will make it. Androni have been in all the major breaks in this Giro d’Italia and I would expect riders like Jackson Rodriguz and Miguel Angel Rubiano to try again. Franco Pellizotti still aims at Top10 overall and with nothing to lose I think he will try to attack early on Passo Tre Crocil.

Movistar have been extremely strong the last week and even though their most important task now is to secure Beñat Intxausti’s Top10 place, I’m sure they will try to take their fifth stage win. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada and Juan José Cobo are all good contenders for an early break and I think at least one of them will make it.

Last, I need to mention Team Colombia. They came to the Giro with high hopes for this final week but with all the big mountains being cancelled out, they haven’t really had a chance to show their strength. Darwin Atapuma is getting better and better and so is Fabio Duarte. The little Colombian have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and I’m sure he will try again on this stage. Duarte is good on the steep percentages and together with Atapuma, Colombia have a dangerous duo for the final climb. Also, the Colombian Sports Minister, Andres Botero, will join the team for the final two stages and if the riders weren’t motivated enough already, this should give them the extra edge.

Favorites: Carlos Betancur & Domenico Pozzovivo

Top 3 Pick: Rafal Majka

Jokers: Fabio Duarte / Franco Pellizotti / José Herrada

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 20:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

The stage has been cancelled!

Due to bad weather, yet another mountain stage has been modified. The Giro organizers had to cancel both Gavia and Stelvio and replace them with Passo del Tonale and Passo Castrin Hofmahdjoch.  These are not nearly as tough as Gavia and Stelvio but they will provide an early selection.

The stage starts with a short descent and then it’s time for Passo del Tonale. It’s only a category 2 climb but its 8.3 km have an average gradient of 7.5% and the riders chasing the KOM jersey will have to attack early. Stefano Pirazzi seems to have the competition under control but he can’t afford to miss the morning break and I expect him and Jackson Rodriguez, Robinson Chalapud and Giovanni Visconti to get away on Passo del Tonale.

Vincenzo Nibali destroyed the rest of the peloton on the uphill time trial and he now has his stage win in the bag. Of course he would like to take another one but I doubt he will use up his team just to chase down a morning breakaway. At this point in the Grand Tours, the riders just around Top10 normally try to attack from a far in order to move up a few spots. Thomas De Gendt did it last year and that almost gave him the overall win. I don’t think anybody can threaten Nibali in this race but the last two podium spots are definitely up for grab. Rigoberto Uran, Cadel Evans and Michele Scarponi will most likely wait to the final climb but it would be interesting to see Lampre send Przemyslaw Niemiec up the road early.

Niemiec asked Scarponi earlier this week what he would have to do in order to take the Pink Jersey and Scarponi told him that he should attack from a far and not just wait until the final kilometer. A Top5 place overall will be a big result for Niemiec but since Lampre have both Niemiec and Scarponi in Top5 right now, they should try something spectacular and at least get one rider on the podium.

Another strong Pole with his eyes on a stage win is Rafal Majka. Bjarne Riis had big plans for Majka for last year’s Giro d’Italia but due to a knee injury, Majka never got to start the race. This year, Majka is eager to show himself and after the best time trial of his career he is not 6^th overall. Majka also took back the White Jersey from Carlos Betancur and even though he says it’s not a priority, I’m sure he will do everything in order to keep it. The big goal for Saxo-Tinkoff is still a stage win and I think Majka will give them one in these final two mountain stages. Rafal Majka is 6:45 min after Vincenzo Nibali so he won’t be the first rider Nibali starts chasing down. He will however be the first rider Carlos Betancur will counter. The White Jersey is Betancur’s biggest target this season and he is just two seconds after Majka before the stage. I expect a great dual between the two climbers on the final climb. A dual that very well could turn out to be a dual for the stage win as well.

Val Martello Martelltal - 22.4 km / 6.4% avg.

The final climb is 22.4 km long and it has an average of 6.4%. The first 6.5 km are steep with 8%. Then there is a short descent followed by 8 km uphill with 7% average. With 6 km to go the climb kicks up with 14% and this will be a good place to test the competition. Hereafter it’s ‘flat’ for about 5 km before the final 1.5 km kicks up with 14% towards the line. The steep hairpin turns will be great for an explosive rider like Betancur, so expect him to put a couple of strong attacks towards the line.

Movistar are having a great Giro d’Italia with four stage wins and the Pink Jersey and I wouldn’t be surprised if they took another one here. Eros Capecchi and José Herrada are great riders for an early breakaway, Capecchi earlier pointed to this stage as his favorite, and Juan José Cobo is also a good pick. Of course they will need some to protect Beñat Intxausti but a morning break without any of the three mentioned will surprise me.

It’s difficult to pick 1 favorite with so many strong riders so instead I’ll make two groups.

Favorites: Carlos Betancur / Rafal Majka / Vincenzo Nibali

Breakaway: Eros Capecchi / Fabio Duarte / Francesco Manuel Bongiorno

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 19:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

UPDATE: The new stage profile with the finish line next ot the Marco Pantani monument. 

We didn’t see much of Stage 14 on Jefferau, but hopefully we’ll get to see a good show on Galibier. Despite bad weather the stage is - in this moment - set to take place as planned, only with the final 4 km cancelled. That means that the stage will finish at the Marco Pantani monument. A suiting place for a finish line for one of the biggest mountain stages in this year’s Giro d’Italia.

The weather can still change many times over night but looking at the profile as it is now, I think a breakaway will make it. Luca Paolini and Sonny Colbrelli almost made it all the way on Stage 14 and that was despite a the cancellation of Sestriere. I think many in the peloton will be happy if a break can get away early on and with 39 KOM points on the menu, I think it’s safe to say that Stefano Pirazzi will be eager to get away on Col du Mont Cenis.

Col du Mont Cenis - Click for larger view

Other riders who will be targeting a breakaway are the Colombians. They came to the Giro with big plans for this stage and even though Darwin Atapuma is feeling sick, I think Team Colombia will show their strength. Fabio Duarte is getting better and better after his early crash and I would expect him to get in the morning break. Robinson Chalapud is chasing the KOM jersey but after his crash on Stage 14, I doubt he’ll be up for it already. Instead, look to Jarlison Pantano who already have been in numerous breaks this Giro.

Yesterday I said that Stefano Garzelli was targeting Stage 14 and he was, but without Sestriere it didn’t really make much sense for the climbers to attack early. Instead Garzelli took it easy - he finished 20 minutes behind teammate Santambrogio - and I think he saved his energy for Galibier. His late friend, teammate and mentor Marco Pantani had one his best days on the bike on Galibier - when he won the Tour in 1998 - and winning on this climb will definitely be very special for Stefano Garzelli in his last Giro d’Italia.

This is also a special stage for AG2R. The French team have two of the best climbers in the race in Domenico Pozzovivo and Carlos Betancur and they will be eager finally to take a stage win, especially on French soil. Hubert Dupont was with Pozzovivo and Betancur at the beginning of the final climb on Stage 14 and I think he will try to get in the morning break. First of all with eyes on the stage win but also to help Betancur or Pozzovivo on the final climb if the break gets caught. I know Pozzovivo is aiming at this stage and being 5 minutes behind Vincenzo Nibali in the GC, he won’t be the first rider Nibali starts chasing down with a late attack.

Col du Télégraphe & Col du Galibier
Last 4 km are cancelled.

With the new finish next to the Pantani monument, the last 4 km will be the steepest of the climb with an average gradient around 8%. The climb kicks up with 17% on the final 500 meters and this is surely is the place to put in a final attack. Mauro Santambrogio and Vini Fantini finally got their stage win on Jefferau but that doesn’t mean they will stop trying. Santambrogio is one of the best climbers on the steep percentages and together with Betancur and Pozzovivo - and Nibali of course - he is one of the big favorites.

I think a breakaway will make it this time but if not, I except one of the tiny AG2R climbers to take the win.

Favorite: Domenico Pozzovivo

Top3 Pick: Mauro Santambrogio

Jokers: Fabio Duarte / Stefano Garzelli / Hubert Dupont

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 15:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

UPDATE: Due to snow, Sestriere too has been cancelled. That means this is the new stage profile. Naturally, the chances of a break making it are now not that great since many riders in the peloton will arrive to the final climb with fresh legs. Still, if the morning break has the right combination of teams, it could make it all the way.

Original Preview:
This is only the second big mountain stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia and we have already said goodbye to two of biggest favorites. Ryder Hesjedal and Bradley Wiggins are now focusing on the Tour de France but we still have many strong riders left in the race and we should be in for another great day of racing.

Click for larger view og the
original profile for Stage 14.

The stage is only 156 km but almost 50 of these are uphill. The first long drag toward the top of Sestriere is 38 km long and despite an average gradient of just 3.8%, the peloton won’t be very big reaching the top. The last 5 km kick up with an average gradient of 5% and includes parts of 9% as well. I would expect a breakaway already to be ahead at this point and Stefano Pirazzi will most likely be in it.

There are 24 KOM points up for grab on this stage and that means that if Pirazzi misses the break, other riders will get right into the fight for the Blue Jersey. As I’ve said a couple of times already, Vincenzo Nibali and Astana won’t be eager to catch the break. They will be happy if a breakaway can take the 20 bonus seconds on the line since Nibali seems to be the strongest rider in the race anyway. Vini-Fantini will be eager finally to take a stage win and even though Mauro Santambrogio seems like the best card to play, I think Stefano Garzelli will have his saying too.

Before this Giro started, Garzelli told me he was aiming at this stage, and the Italian veteran has been looking very good the last couple of days. He knew he needed a week or so to get into the right shape and the last lumpy stages, Garzelli has been very active trying to get into the right breakaway. It hasn’t been successful so far, but Stefano Garzelli is a rider who always delivers when needed. Furthermore, Garzelli still hopes to win the KOM jersey for this 3^rd time in his career and I’m sure he will show himself this weekend.

Androni have been in all the big breakaways this Giro d’Italia and I would be surprised not to see them put a rider or two in the morning break on this stage. Franco Pellizotti is still too close in the GC for the other favorites to let him get away early, but riders like Miguel Angel Rubiano and Diego Rosa are both out of the GC. Rubiano hasn’t had much luck so far in the race and this could be the day he finally shows his talent in the mountains.

Click for larger view!

It won’t be easy for a breakaway to make it all the way to the line, but if Vini-Fantini have a rider in it, I can’t see which teams should start chasing them down. Maybe AG2R if Pozzovivo and Betancur are feeling good, but I seriously doubt they have a strong enough team to do so. Lampre have a great team here and they could try to chase in order for Michele Scarponi to take back some time. The question is if Scarponi is strong enough to drop the rest of the favorites on the final climb? Right now, it doesn’t seem like it.

The final climb is only 7,25 km but it has an average gradient of 9%! It kicks up with 14% right in the beginning and the last 750 meters don’t drop below 11%. It’s an ascent for the pure climbers like Henao, Santambrogio, Pozzovivo & Betancur and if a break doesn’t make it, I think one of the two AG2R riders will take the stage win.

Domenico Pozzovivo tried to get away the other day but he couldn’t catch Uran. Betancur then counterattacked his teammate but according to himself, Betancur didn’t want to catch his friend up front. He might have able to and if he has the same legs on this stage, I think Betancur will be difficult to beat. The strong Colombian is still chasing his first victory this season and after two second places in this Giro already, it’s now time for him to get that stage win.

Also, look out for Team Saxo-Tinkoff's youngster, Rafal Majka. He's in great shape right now and not afraid of attacking. If GC contenders start looking at each other, I think Majka will be quick to take his chance. 

Favorite: Carlos Betancur

Top3 Pick: Mauro Santambrogio

Jokers: Stefano Garzelli & Miguel Angel Rubiano

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 14:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 11 Preview & Favorites

Last year’s winner, Ryder Hesjedal, didn’t live up the promising riding we saw in the first week and he’s now out of the GC, losing more than 20 minutes on Stage 10. Bradley Wiggins is still in the mix but yet again, the Tour de France winner couldn’t follow the best uphill. Gesink lost about a minute, which was expected but so did Scarponi and that was a little surprise.

Before the Giro started, Cadel Evans said that he still aims at winning the Tour de France this year, and therefore I didn’t count him in as a serious contender for the GC. I still doubt that any rider can dig deep in the last week of this race and still have a chance of winning the Tour a few months later, and if Cadel stays up front the rest of the race, I’m sure he will end up assisting TJ again in the Tour.

Anyway, let’s take a look at Stage 11. It’s another day in the mountains, but the climbs aren’t nearly as steep as on Stage 10. Despite a short uphill section in the beginning, the first 70 km are downhill. From here on the riders slowly start on the category 2 climb, Sella Ciampigotto. With an average gradient of just 4.4%, this climb may not sound difficult but it does take the riders up in 1700 meters above level and the ascent is almost 30 km. Astana will most likely set a comfortable pace in the peloton but if a team like Vini-Fantini manage to miss the big break again, they might go to the front and crank up the speed in order to minimize the gap.

The final climb to Vajont
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There are still 55 km to the beginning of the final climb from the top of Sella Ciampigotto and luckily, the weather forecast shows dry roads on the 20 km descent. The stage ends in Vajont and the final 7 km are uphill. It’s another category 2 climb and the average gradient is just 5.2%. Still the climb does kick up with 7% the last 1.5 km before the final 400 meters are downhill toward the line.

The big break wasn’t strong enough to make in on Stage 10 but since the climbs aren’t as steep this time, I suspect a break will make it. Again, Astana will be happy to let the 20 bonus seconds go to a rider down the GC and I doubt BMC have the team to chase back a break in order for Evans to win the stage. That being said, if it does come down to the favorites, Evans seems to be the best pick right now. Either him or Carlos Betancur. The strong Colombian has taken 2^nd place two days in row now and he definitely has the kick to drop the rest on the steeper part towards the top of the final climb.

Team Colombia missed the break on Stage 10 and I think they will be eager to take revenge on Stage 11. Chalapud and Pantano had a quiet day in the peloton and both should be ready to attack from a far again. Chalapud is chasing the KOM jersey and I expect both him and Pirazzi to make the morning break and take points on Sella Ciampigotto. Vini Fantini have lost a couple of stages in this race already and I think they will do whatever they can do get into the morning break. Di Luca, Rabottini & Garzelli are all out of the GC and especially Garzelli seems to be getting into shape now. He tried to get into the morning break the other day and even though he hasn’t showed much yet, I’m sure we will see him in the second part of the race.

Another good breakaway contender for this stage is Pieter Weening. He is the now out of the GC and favorites can let him get away without worrying. Weening is solid on the climbs, he even turned out to be among the best in Pais Vasco, and he’s strong on the descents as well. These kind of gradients are good for Weening and with the last 400 meters slightly downhill, he seems to be a good joker for this stage. The same goes for his teammate Christian Meier.

Favorite: Carlos Betancur

Top3 Pick: Cadel Evans

Jokers: Pieter Weening & Stefano Garzelli

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 11:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Stage 4 is another very long day in the saddle, 244 km in total, and one could argue that the first - flat - 190 km are a bit too much. Anyway, like on Stage 3 a break will most likely get clear early on and the stage won’t really get interesting until the last 50 km.

This is where the category three climb, Vibo Valentina, starts with an average gradient of 6% the first couple of kilometers before it evens out a bit. After a ‘flat’ part, the climb kicks up with 6-7% towards the top. There are still 40 km to go from the top of Vibo Valentina but only 20 km to the beginning of the final climb, Croce Ferrata. This category 2 climb stretches over 12 km with an average gradient of 5.6% and parts of 10% in the middle. There are 6.7 km to the finishing line from the top of Croce Ferrata and it’s not impossible that a small group of even a single strong rider can keep the peloton at bay if they get a gap over the top.

The first 3-4 km are downhill on narrow and twisting roads and with 3 km to go the road kicks up for about 500 meters. The last kilometer is flat but narrow roads and parts of paves is definitely in the favor of a break making it to the line.

Stage 3 showed us that Ryder Hesjedal means business in this race. He wants to win overall with number 1 on his back and he really animated the race both uphill and downhill. While everybody else was struggling Hesjedal said he didn’t even find it hard. The final climb on Stage 4 may not be hard enough to make a real selection but if Hesjedal and others want to shake Team Sky - who didn’t seem to be in control in the final on Stage 3 - they may try attacking again. The possibilities of a break making it are not bad, but it’s clear to everyone that the GC contenders won’t wait to the big mountains before testing each other. Therefore, I think one of the team leaders will take the stage win in Serra San Bruno.

Except for Ryder Hesjedal and Vincenzo Nibali, Mauro Santambrogio looked very strong on Stage 3. He didn’t make the cut when Garmin first attacked with three riders, but he quickly bridged the gap all by himself. Santambrogio also made it to the front when Hesjedal attacked on the downhill section with Paolini and Agnoli and to me, Mauro Santambrogio is the big favorite for this stage. He has been in outstanding shape since Tirreno-Adriatico - two months ago - and as I fear he may fade out in the last week, he needs to get his stage win soon. There aren’t many riders who can drop Santambrogio uphill these days and since he’s fast on the line too, I feel confident picking him as my favorite.

On paper, this stage looks perfect for Paolo Tiralongo. He’s strong uphill and also very fast in a reduced group. Unfortunately, Tiralongo crashed on Stage 3 and hit his knee, and I’m sure he will be more concerned about healing up before the mountains than attacking with a sore knee this early in the race. Instead, look to Domenico Pozzovivo. He won a similar stage in last year’s Giro (the stage to Lago Laceno) after he attacked and got away on the final climb and he knows this stage finish very well. Pozzovivo is already 1:41 min down in the general classification and even though the favorites know that they can’t let him get too much of a gap, he probably won’t the first rider they’ll chase down.

Teammate Carlos Betancur is at the same time in the GC and like Santambrogio, Betancur has also been in good shape for a while now. I think he will manage to stay sharp the whole Giro, but naturally he should target a stage win if he gets the chance. Betancur was one of the many riders crashing on Stage 3 but he seems to be okay. He has a kick uphill like few riders right now and even though there are still 6,7 km to from the top, he could make it all the way on a good day.

Luca Paolini will most likely lose the Pink Jersey already on this stage and that means Bradley Wiggins will take the lead unless one of his nearest rivals win. Katusha have been doing great so far in this race and even though Paolini loses the jersey, they may just keep it anyway. Confused? Let me explain. Giampaolo Caruso has been in great shape the last month and this is a very good stage for him. He’s not afraid of attacking from far out and Team Sky would definitely not mind not having the jersey for another day. The morale is high on Katusha these days and Caruso could be joker prolonging the champagne days for the Russian team.

Another good joker for this stage is Stefano Pirazzi (who also crashed on Stage 3, but without injuries). He showed in Giro del Trentino that he is in great shape now, but he didn’t manage to be up front when Garmin started their surprise attack. Pirazzi crossed the line just behind the big group almost 2 minutes after Luca Paolini and that means he’s now free to do what he does best: attack! Bardiani-CSF don’t have a rider for the overall classification but Stefano Pirazzi is their best card to play uphill. He’s aggressive, persistent and he never gives up. Pirazzi is already 2:45 down in the overall classification and the favorites won’t mind him getting away on the final climb.

Like Stage 3, this is a very difficult stage to predict. Riders like Weening, Santaromita, Visconti, Sarmiento and Duarte are all good jokers too, but I think I will stick with the ones already mentioned.

Favorite: Mauro Santambrogio

Top3 Pick: Domenico Pozzovivo

Jokers: Giampaolo Caruso / Stefano Pirazzi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 4:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview

Remember the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.

There will be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r, Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.

The beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an early break will make it.

I think Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week, giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.

Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top.

Euskaltel have, naturally, also been out doing some recon of these stages last week, and I’m sure Samuel Sanchez will be eager to take the first personal win in over a year and Euskaltel’s first win of the season. Sanchez too was very good on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and the short hills and tricky descents are perfect for him - especially in the rain, where other riders have problems.

Team Sky lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group with Porte left behind.

Damiano Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front, I’m sure he will try something in the final.

In Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the stage and they ended 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. On this stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates instead.

Favorites: Quintana, Sanchez.

Solid outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón

Jokers: Fuglsang, Gilbert, Vicioso

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Preview of Giro di Lombardia

After a long and very interesting season it’s now time for the last big race in 2012; Giro di Lombardia. It’s “the race of the falling leaves” but despite it being the end of the season we still have a lot of great riders ready to fight for the last big win and important WorldTour points. Last year Oliver Zaugg took his first professional win ever when he soloed to victory in Lecco, but something tells me that we will see one of the favorites taking the win this time.

Muro di Sormano.
Click for larger view!

Favorites:

There is no way around it. The way he won the World Champions last Sunday, Philippe Gilbert is the big favorite for a wonderful double to end off the season. Gilbert has already won the race twice in the past (2009 and 2010) and the way he has been building up his shape towards the World Champions, I’m sure he wil be ready to take his third Lombardia win. It’s true that the added “Muro di Sormano” probably will make a selection a lot earlier than normally, but with a strong team around him and about 100 km to go from the top, Gilbert shouldn’t have any problems staying in front. 

BMC sports director Rik Verbrugghe told Sporza that 2012 had been an “off-year” for Gilbert and you know you’re talking about a real champion when two Vuelta stages and a World Champion title still is being looked at as an off-year. Gilbert will be eager to end this season with another win and the way I see only a few riders can do anything against that.

One of them is Damiano Cunego. Starting the Vuelta España six weeks ago Cunego’s aim was - like Gilbert -to ride the Vuelta in order to be in the best shape possible for the World Champions. Unfortunately for Cunego, halfway through the race the Italian federation implied their new “clean policy” leaving Cunego out of the roster for Limburg. Cunego kept on trying to hit the right breakaway though - being one of the most aggressive riders in the beginning of the stages - but without any luck. Now it’s time for revenge. Missing out on the World Champions on a route that suited him perfectly, Cunego really wants to show what he can do in Giro di Lombardia, a race he has won three times already. Last year he came to Lombardia just a few days after Tour of Beijing and without jetlag this time I will very surprised if he and in-form and team mate Diego Ulissi won’t have their saying in the final on Saturday afternoon.

Villa Vergano - 7,4% avg.
9,5 km to go from the top.

Another strong candidate for the win is Alberto Contador. I must admit I didn’t put Contador down as one of the favorites before his win in Milano-Torino, but now it would be stupid not to. Despite the scale showing 2,4 kg more than in the end of the Vuelta España, Alberto Contador still managed to drop everyone when he attack on the last kilometer and soloed to his first one-day-race victory ever. Last year Oliver Zaugg managed to go solo on the last climb (Villa Vergano) and keep his lead all the way to the line. Contador knows he doesn’t stand a chance in a sprint against riders like Gilbert, Cunego and Purito, but if he can put in another attack like the one in Milano-Torino on Villa Vergano he will be very difficult to catch.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is also a good pick for the win and together with team mates Dani Moreno and Alexander Kolobnev, Katusha have one of the strongest teams in the race. Last year Purito attacked too late on Villa Vergano and had to settle with third place. This year he finally won his first Classic in Fleche Wallone and being so close to the overall win in both the Giro and the Vuelta I’m sure he will do anything in this power to end this year with a win and a good taste in his mouth. Another thing to boost Purito’s morale is that a top place in Lombardia most likely will give him another overall World Tour win as Bradley Wiggins seems to be out of shape right now.

Jokers:

As always this late in the season it’s all about who has most left in the tank and that means we often see outsiders shine. I find many good jokers on the start list but as said, I think it will be one of the favorites taking the win. Still, I would like point out guys like Lars Petter Nordhaug and Carlos Betancur. Both riders are changing team next year (Nordhaug to Rabobank and Betancur to Ag2r) but that fact hasn’t benched them for this classic. Nordhaug showed at the World Champions that he’s in great shape when he was with Edvald Boasson Hagen on Cauberg in the final. Nordhaug was just about to bridge the gap to the chasing trio, a move that probably could have given EBH the rainbow jersey, but missed out in the end. With his win in GP Montréal earlier this month there is no doubt though that Lars Petter Nordhaug is in great shape right now and being a disappointed in Team Sky for not fighting to keep him on the team I could imagine he is eager to show them they made the wrong call when they let him go to Rabobank.

Carlos Betancur showed great he is ready for Lombardia when he took 5^th place in Milano-Torino, arriving with Purito after a strong finish, and despite having Danilo Di Luca on the team, I think Betancur is Acqua e Sapone’s best chance of a good result this Saturday. Betancur won the hard stage to Frabosa Soprana in Giro di Padania a couple of weeks ago and taking 9^th place in Lombardia last year, he sure knows what it takes to be there in the final. 

Exclusive interview - Stefano Garzelli

Stefano Garzelli

Stefano Garzelli had planned to end his long glorious career after the Giro d’Italia this year, but since his team Acqua e Sapone didn’t get an invitation, Garzelli suddenly had to decide he if wanted to continue his career at all. I had a talk with the Italian veteran about the future and to clarify what happened with Bjarne Riis last summer.

Stefano, I'm very sorry to learn about the missing invitation to the Giro d'Italia. It must have been a big chock for you? 
Indeed. After what I managed to do last year in the race, I really didn’t expect this decision. I think I gave a lot to the Giro last year.

Do you find it disrespectful by the RCS not to invite you after all you have given the Giro? 
It’s beyond just lack of respect. I find it very hard to accept. I don’t understand why they have invited teams with less potential among their riders than we have. Beside myself we have two very talented young riders in Taborre and especially Betancur who would be our key rider for the GC. I would have liked to teach Betancur how to win a Giro but unfortunately that won’t happen now. 

Have you considered riding another season in order to be able do ride the Giro next year?
To be honest I won’t exclude it. I have already got an offer to continue one more year, but I will have to take my time and find out if I really want to keep on with the training and make all the sacrifices that go with it. If I can’t see the point in doing it, I will rather stop now because I will not continue riding my bike if I can’t compete with the best riders. 

I know you had planned to end your career after the Giro. How do you find the motivation to continue training without having the Giro to look forward to? 
Well, after I got the news [about not being invited to the Giro] my first thought was to stop my career. At my age it’s difficult to keep up the motivation and make sacrifices when the race that matters the most to you has been taking away. But after I had some time to think about it, I sat myself new goals starting with Tirreno-Adriatico and Milano-San Remo. I think this will be a good way to end my career as well.

Recently La Gazzetta dello Sport wrote that you would sign with Team Saxo Bank after Tirreno in order to ride the Giro. Is there any truth to that? 
I would have liked to, but unfortunately the regulations doesn’t allow it [Read here why not].

I know you were talking with Bjarne Riis last summer about a contract. Can you explain the reasons for not signing with Riis back then? 
Bjarne contacted me last year and we talked about it, but the problem was that I already had a contract with Acqua e Sapone for 2012. I talked with my team [Acqua e Sapone] about changing, but they made it clear to me that it would jeopardize their participation in the Giro and therefore I decided to not change. I could have insisted [on going to Saxo Bank] but because of our relationship I didn’t want to do it. 

So there is no possible way you will be able to ride the Giro d'Italia this year? 
In 2008 when we weren’t invited the decision was final, so I don’t have any hopes left now.

To end this interview I can tell that Stefano Garzelli just became father for the 4th time. He tells that for him 2012 is now already a success. “What more could I ask for than a lovely family and a good health”, he explains to me. Hopefully his newborn son Leonardo will help him getting through a difficult start to the season.