Tour de Suisse: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Modified stage profile. Not official but should be accurate.

As I already wrote in the overall preview, Stage 2 has been modified due to bad weather in the mountains. That means the early HC-climb Nufenenpass has been cancelled and the stage has been shortened from 160 to 117.2 km.

A short stage is a fast stage and without the climb in the beginning, the peloton will be starting out in high speed. Many riders will look to get in the breakaway and thereby have an advantage starting the final climb. Without bonus seconds on the line the GC contenders don’t have to focus on the stage win but I think it will come back together and end with one of the favorites winning on Crans Montana.

Crans Montana is a frequently used climb in Tour de Suisse. Last time the race finished here, Mauricio Soler won. The Colombian climber crashed horribly on the following stage but luckily, he survived. The stage win on Crans Montana was the last in Soler's way too short career. Movistar will be eager to pay tribute to Soler on Crans Montana and in Rui Costa they have a strong contender for the stag win. Also, teammate Andrey Amador is a good outsider with a late attack.

The climb itself is 16.3 km long and has an average gradient of about 6.5 %. The last couple of kilometers are the steepest with parts of 8.5 % and 7.2 % towards the line. I think Movistar will try to control the race and together with GreenEdge I doubt they will let a break get too far away. My joker for the overall classification Cameron Meyer took a lot of times on his rivals in the opening time trial and I think it will be very difficult to rip the yellow jersey off his shoulders on this stage.

It won’t be easy to beat Movistar but I think Thibaut Pinot is one of the few riders who can. The French climber has his eyes fixed on the Tour but that doesn’t mean he don’t race to win in Tour de Suisse. The hard race suits him fine and despite this being a short stage, he final climb is right up his alley. Pinot did very well in the opening time trial and after a strong performance in Bayern-Rundfahrt, I think he will be fighting for the win on Crans Montana.

My two personal jokers for the stage win are Tanel Kangert and Damiano Caruso. Kangert was one of the big revelations in this year’s Giro d’Italia and he still seems to be in great shape. He turned out to be one of the best helpers for Nibali in the mountains and he showed to be very strong when he took 5^th place in GP Gippingen last Thursday. Astana have Brajkovic in the race as well but the Slovenian may need a day or two before his legs are used to racing again. I think Astana will try to set-up Kangert for the stage win and he might as well pull it off.

Damiano Caruso wasn’t planned to ride the Giro d’Italia this year but after Ivan Basso got injured, Caruso had to change his race schedule and take part. He was rather invisible the first part of the race but as he raced into shape he finished the Giro in a very strong way. Caruso now hopes to do well in the overall classification in Tour de Suisse and to take a stage win along the way. There are many strong riders on the start list but if Caruso can ride as he did on the hilly time trial in the Giro (finished 3^rd), he will be up there for the win, I think.

Favorites: Rui Costa & Thibaut Pinot

Jokers: Tanel Kangert & Damiano Caruso

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Giro d'Italia: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Stage 4 is another very long day in the saddle, 244 km in total, and one could argue that the first - flat - 190 km are a bit too much. Anyway, like on Stage 3 a break will most likely get clear early on and the stage won’t really get interesting until the last 50 km.

This is where the category three climb, Vibo Valentina, starts with an average gradient of 6% the first couple of kilometers before it evens out a bit. After a ‘flat’ part, the climb kicks up with 6-7% towards the top. There are still 40 km to go from the top of Vibo Valentina but only 20 km to the beginning of the final climb, Croce Ferrata. This category 2 climb stretches over 12 km with an average gradient of 5.6% and parts of 10% in the middle. There are 6.7 km to the finishing line from the top of Croce Ferrata and it’s not impossible that a small group of even a single strong rider can keep the peloton at bay if they get a gap over the top.

The first 3-4 km are downhill on narrow and twisting roads and with 3 km to go the road kicks up for about 500 meters. The last kilometer is flat but narrow roads and parts of paves is definitely in the favor of a break making it to the line.

Stage 3 showed us that Ryder Hesjedal means business in this race. He wants to win overall with number 1 on his back and he really animated the race both uphill and downhill. While everybody else was struggling Hesjedal said he didn’t even find it hard. The final climb on Stage 4 may not be hard enough to make a real selection but if Hesjedal and others want to shake Team Sky - who didn’t seem to be in control in the final on Stage 3 - they may try attacking again. The possibilities of a break making it are not bad, but it’s clear to everyone that the GC contenders won’t wait to the big mountains before testing each other. Therefore, I think one of the team leaders will take the stage win in Serra San Bruno.

Except for Ryder Hesjedal and Vincenzo Nibali, Mauro Santambrogio looked very strong on Stage 3. He didn’t make the cut when Garmin first attacked with three riders, but he quickly bridged the gap all by himself. Santambrogio also made it to the front when Hesjedal attacked on the downhill section with Paolini and Agnoli and to me, Mauro Santambrogio is the big favorite for this stage. He has been in outstanding shape since Tirreno-Adriatico - two months ago - and as I fear he may fade out in the last week, he needs to get his stage win soon. There aren’t many riders who can drop Santambrogio uphill these days and since he’s fast on the line too, I feel confident picking him as my favorite.

On paper, this stage looks perfect for Paolo Tiralongo. He’s strong uphill and also very fast in a reduced group. Unfortunately, Tiralongo crashed on Stage 3 and hit his knee, and I’m sure he will be more concerned about healing up before the mountains than attacking with a sore knee this early in the race. Instead, look to Domenico Pozzovivo. He won a similar stage in last year’s Giro (the stage to Lago Laceno) after he attacked and got away on the final climb and he knows this stage finish very well. Pozzovivo is already 1:41 min down in the general classification and even though the favorites know that they can’t let him get too much of a gap, he probably won’t the first rider they’ll chase down.

Teammate Carlos Betancur is at the same time in the GC and like Santambrogio, Betancur has also been in good shape for a while now. I think he will manage to stay sharp the whole Giro, but naturally he should target a stage win if he gets the chance. Betancur was one of the many riders crashing on Stage 3 but he seems to be okay. He has a kick uphill like few riders right now and even though there are still 6,7 km to from the top, he could make it all the way on a good day.

Luca Paolini will most likely lose the Pink Jersey already on this stage and that means Bradley Wiggins will take the lead unless one of his nearest rivals win. Katusha have been doing great so far in this race and even though Paolini loses the jersey, they may just keep it anyway. Confused? Let me explain. Giampaolo Caruso has been in great shape the last month and this is a very good stage for him. He’s not afraid of attacking from far out and Team Sky would definitely not mind not having the jersey for another day. The morale is high on Katusha these days and Caruso could be joker prolonging the champagne days for the Russian team.

Another good joker for this stage is Stefano Pirazzi (who also crashed on Stage 3, but without injuries). He showed in Giro del Trentino that he is in great shape now, but he didn’t manage to be up front when Garmin started their surprise attack. Pirazzi crossed the line just behind the big group almost 2 minutes after Luca Paolini and that means he’s now free to do what he does best: attack! Bardiani-CSF don’t have a rider for the overall classification but Stefano Pirazzi is their best card to play uphill. He’s aggressive, persistent and he never gives up. Pirazzi is already 2:45 down in the overall classification and the favorites won’t mind him getting away on the final climb.

Like Stage 3, this is a very difficult stage to predict. Riders like Weening, Santaromita, Visconti, Sarmiento and Duarte are all good jokers too, but I think I will stick with the ones already mentioned.

Favorite: Mauro Santambrogio

Top3 Pick: Domenico Pozzovivo

Jokers: Giampaolo Caruso / Stefano Pirazzi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 4:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Tirreno-Adriatico: Preview & Favorites

No offense towards Paris-Nice but this year Tirreno-Adriatico is the race to watch, should you only choose one of them. We have all big Tour de France favorites at the starting line and even though the Tour is far away, this could give us some important signs of what to expect in July.

It doesn't matter if you are a Spanish, Italian, Australian, German, British or African supporter. This race gives you a mix of all the best riders in the world and we get to make history as well. More on that in the preview.

The Stages:

Stage 1 - 16,9 km Team Time Trial. Same as last year.

Stage 2 - 232 km Sprint Stage. First dual between Cavendish & Greipel.

Stage 3 - 190 km Hilly Stage. Time for a break? Difficult to control for the sprinters’ teams.

Stage 4 - 173 km Mountain Stage. Same finish on Prati di Tivo (15 km / 7%) as last year.

Stage 5 - 230 km Hilly stage. Typical steep finish in Chieti.

Stage 6 - 209 Undulating Stage. Looks like a sprint stage but is nothing like it.

Stage 7 - 9,2 km Individual Time Trial. Same as last year.

The Favorites:

Looking at the start list there are at least six or seven riders with a real chance of winning this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. First up is Alberto Contador. This is one of the (very) few stage races Contador hasn’t won yet and he is eager to add Tirreno to his palmares. He wanted to come here and win last year, but ended up sidelined for the most of the season instead. Unlike the last couple of years, Contador is now very focused on not peaking before the Tour. He started out a couple of kilos heavier that normally and that was probably why he couldn’t shake the peloton as he normally does in Tour of Oman. I think Contador will be a lot better already and I would be surprised not to see him on the final podium.

My personal pick for the overall win is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. This year Purito is set to peak in April - not in May like last year - and that means his shape is already very good. He showed in Oman that he’s stronger than the other favorites and with 10 bonus seconds on the line each day, I think Purito can make up for this poor time trial skills by winning in Chieti and probably on Prati di Tivo as well.  Purito is coming to Tirreno with big ambitions of winning the race overall and I doubt the other candidates will be able to drop him at any point.

Chris Froome seems to be preparing himself for the Tour de France the same way Bradley Wiggins did last year. He won Tour of Oman overall and with a strong team to protect him in Tirreno, he will be up there again. Still, it’s important to remember this is a very difficult race to control. Stage 4 is pretty straight forward but stage 5 and 6 are up and down the most of the day and Froome needs to keep a tight leash on Purito if he wants to win his second stage race of the season. Froome should be able to count on a strong time trial the last day, but unless he’s within 10-15 seconds of Purito I doubt it will be enough.

Last year’s winner Vincenzo Nibali will be motivated to defend his title with number 1 on the back, but this year’s field is a lot stronger than last year and I doubt Nibali will be able to drop any of the three mentioned riders above. Astana bring a very strong team to look after him and Nibali and count on support from Tiralongo and Brajkovic in the mountains. Still that doesn’t help much if The Shark isn’t able to drop his rivals. Stage 3 and 6 could be two good opportunities for Nibali to put in a few surprise attacks on the undulating roads, but I’m sure I’m not the only one aware of that.

Cadel Evans started out his season in Tour of Oman and that in a very strong way. He distanced Contador and Nibali on Green Mountain and finished 3^rd overall. Evans won Tirreno in 2011 and he has a super team for the opening TTT to help him get the perfect start. If everything works out perfectly for Evans and BMC on the team time trial, he could have a gap of up to 20-30 seconds on his rivals before Prati di Tivo and then he’ll be difficult to overtake. Evans knows the finish in Chieti very well too and even though I won’t pick him as my personal favorite, I won’t be surprised to see him win overall either.

The way I see it the five mentioned riders are the top favorites for this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Just behind these we’ll find riders like Samuel Sanchez, Bauke Mollema, Chris Horner and Damiano Cunego. All expected to do a great race too. Andy Schleck is here too, so just in case you don’t see him during the race, now you know.

It’s very difficult to point out a joker for top GC result with so many strong riders in the race. Still I would like to mention the young Cannondale talent Damiano Caruso. Caruso has been favorite of mine for quite some years now and he showed his strength last year in the Giro wearing the white jersey while supporting team leader Ivan Basso. This year Caruso will get more responsibility and after a good winter season and a strong training camp on Tenerife last month, he should be ready to try his luck. His main goals are the classics next month, but together with Moreno Moser, Caruso should be able to do well in the GC. Maybe even top10 overall.

For other outsiders look to in-shape Rinaldo Nocentini, Michal Kwiatkowski, Eros Capecchi and Mauro Santambrogio. And don’t forget Spanish climber Sergio Pardilla, riding for MTN-Qhubeka p/b Samsung. The African team are making their World Tour debut in Tirreno-Adriatico and while they may not be among the strongest in the team time trial, they are bringing very good riders in Pardilla and Gerald Ciolek. The German sprinter just won the last stage of Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen last weekend and he’s very eager to challenge Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in the mass sprints. Sergio Pardilla will probably lose time in the two time trials, which minimizes his chancer overall, but he should be able to show off the African team’s colors on Prati di Tivo on stage 4.

The Sprinters:

This is not just a race with all the best GC riders, it’s also the first chance this year to see Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel go head-to-head in a mass sprint. Depending on how the stages evolve, stage 2 could be only opportunity to see the two super stars against each other, but don’t forget we also have Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb, Tyler Farrar, Roberto Ferrari, Thor Hushovd, Francesco Chicchi, Matt Goss, Giacomo Nizzolo, Gerald Ciolek and many more sprinters in the race!

The trophy:

Tirreno-Adriatico is famous for its handcrafted trident shaped Sea Master trophy and it’s always entertaining to watch the trophy arise from the ocean and follow its way to the podium. Stefano Garzelli won the race overall in 2011 and told me afterwards that his son saw the podium ceremony on TV and wonderingly asked his mother: “Mama, where are we supposed to put that trophy?”

Top10

It seems like an impossible task to do, but I will try to make a pre-Top10 of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico anyway. Remember, the first four riders all have an equal chance of winning the race. Here we go:

1. Purito

2. Contador

3. Evans

4. Froome

5. Nibali

6. Mollema

7. Horner

8. Samu

9. Cunego

10. Nocentini