Il Lombardia - Preview & Favorites

It’s time for the final big one day race of the 2013 season. The Italian Il Lombardia, also known as “the race of the falling leaves”, takes place on the routes from Bergamo to Lecco. There are no less than five hard climbs to overcome on the 242 km and the last one, Villa Vergano, has its top just 10 km from the finishing line.

One of the most spectacular parts of the routes comes after 160 km. On the way towards the top of Colma di Sormano, the riders reach the feared Muro di Sormano. The 1.9 km have an average gradient of 15.8 % and parts of up to 27 %. There are still 82 km to go from the top of the climb and most likely, the peloton will regroup on the following 30 km towards the next climb. Madonna del Ghisallo is 8.5 km long and has an average gradient of 6.2 %. It has a steep part of 14 % in the beginning and after a flat part, the final 1.5 km kick up with 9.5 %. Last year, the race took place in rainy conditions and many have feared the same would happen this time. However, as of Saturday morning, the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Lecco by the time the riders arrive.

Last year, on the descent from Madonna del Ghisallo we saw Vincenzo Nibali, among others, crash on the wet roads and hopefully everybody will stay upright this time. The crashes during World Championship last week took out many good riders and it would be a shame to see the same thing happening in Il Lombardia.

With 12.6 km to go, it’s time for the final struggle of the day. Villa Vergano is only 3.2 km long but has an average gradient of 7.4 %. There are steep parts of 15 % near the top and this is exactly where Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez attacked last year. Nobody could keep up with Purito and being strong on the wet descent, the other riders didn’t see him until after the finishing line. 

Should a small group of riders arrive together, it’s important to know the finish very well. With 750 meters to go, the riders turn right in a roundabout and continues straight out for about 500 meters. Then it’s time for a very tricky S-curve. It’s starts with a  90° left turn and ends with a right curve. There are only 150 meters to go from here and this means first rider out of the last bend most likely wins the rain. If you attack into the sharp left-hand corner and take a take a few risks, chances are you will open up a big enough gap to stay in front all the way to the line.

Like last year, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is once again my personal favorite. He has had a week to digest the big defeat in Florence and he’s now eager to take revenge and finish this season with a good taste in his mouth. Purito knows that few - if any - can match his kick on the steep part of Villa Vergano and I won’t be surprised to see him solo away to win like he did in 2012. In Florence, he showed to be the strongest climber in the race and Il Lombardia is really a climber’s race. Last year, Purito won the World Tour ranking after winning this race and he’s close enough to Chris Froome to repeat that performance this time. However, it won’t be easy. Froome leads with 80 points and that means Purito has to win or get second while Froome can’t get any points at all. Purito's loyal teammate Dani Moreno showed great shape in Milano-Torino with a strong attack in the final and we can expect Moreno to go hard for Purito in the beginning of Villa Vergano. Katusha has a very strong team for this race and should Purito get caught, Dani Moreno will be able to play his cards in the sprint.

Update: Chris Froome won't start Il Lombardia due to back pains. This means we may end up seeing Purito working harder to secure a Top2 place than to win the race if gets away with only one other rider in the final. Topping the ranking for the third time in a row is a huge goal for Purito and even though he naturally wants to win Il Lombardia, a second place won't be too bad this time. 

The other favorites for the win this Sunday are the same as those for the World Championship. Alejandro Valverde will be eager to make up for his tactical mistake (letting Rui Costa slip away) and it will be interesting to see how Valverde and Rui Costa, now teammates again, will ride this race. Valverde knows he’s most likely the fastest rider on the line should it end in a sprint. Therefore, I would expect Rui Costa to attack on the final climb. However, Rui Costa had problems keeping up with the best riders on the steep parts last Sunday and I doubt he can follow Purito on the final part of Villa Vergano. The best solution is probably to attack early on the last climb and make a selection before the steep part. Rui Costa may even wants to pay back Valverde by working in front of the peloton towards the line. Like some said, Purito should have done in Florence.

Vincenzo Nibali finished just outside of the podium last Sunday. I’m sure few would disagree to the fact that Nibali was the strongest rider in the race and I expect him to do very well in Il Lombardia too. Like Purito, Nibali is eager to take revenge. He’s in great shape right now but like other riders without a strong kick, the Astana captain has to time his final attack perfectly if he wants to win this race. Many people say that it will be an advantage for Nibali if it rains again this year. However don’t forget that Vincenzo Nibali has crashed numerous times on wet descents. Last year, in Il Lombardia, he went down on the descent from Madonna del Ghisallo and in the Giro d’Italia this year, Nibali crashed again on a wet descent. Same thing happened last Sunday, which obviously made Nibali scared of taking risks in the final when Rui Costa attacked. Nibali is said to be one of the best riders on the descents, especially if it rains, but maybe it’s time to reconsider that statement. That being said, I won’t be surprised to see Vincenzo Nibali attack on the descent from Villa Vergano. He knows he has to get away alone in order to win and I’m sure he will try.

Together with Purito and Rui Costa, Dan Martin was one of my personal picks for the win last Sunday. The Irish climber had all the qualities needed to win but like many others, a crash ruined his chances. Afterwards, Dan Martin said he was feeling very good on the bike during the race and luckily, the crash didn’t cause him any injuries. This means the Garmin captain is now ready to fight again and I have big hopes for him in this race. Dan Martin is good on the climbs, he’s explosive and he’s fast on the line. In Liege-Bastogne-Liege, he outsmarted Purito in the final and we may just get another fight between the same two riders this time.

Il Lombardia is the last race I’ll preview this season and of course I have a couple a couple of jokers for you. The first one is Domenico Pozzovivo. The pint-sized Italian finished 6^th overall in the Vuelta last month and after a short break, he showed still to be in great shape in Milano-Torino. On the final climb, Pozzovivo was - im my eyes - the strongest rider in the race, having no problems following the attacks the final 3 km. However, Pozzovivo is not very strong in a sprint and this also why his chances aren’t great this Sunday. I think Pozzovivo is one of the few riders able to stay close to Purito on the steep part of Villa Vergano but I can’t see him outsprint any of the other favorites. A podium place is probably the best Pozzovivo can do with a finish like this but that would also be a good result. Together with Carlos Betancur, Ag2r has a very strong duo for the final climb.

Some point to Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan as the favorites but I doubt they will be able to stay with the favorites on the final climb. It’s true that Gilbert has won this race before but let’s be honest, Gilbert is not as strong right now as we have seen him in the past. Also, unlike the last many years, the climbers are now in tip-top conditions thanks to a tough World Championship course. Usually, their season would already be over but now they are all peaking. I’m sure this will make a huge impact on the race. Personally, I will be surprised if a climber doesn’t win Il Lombardia.

Other good jokers for the win are Diego Ulissi, Thibaut Pinot and Alberto Contador. Ulissi is in great shape right now but as I’ve mentioned many times; he’s not good on the descents. Especially not if it rains. However, Ulissi is very fast on the line and he’s probably one of the very few riders in the peloton able to outsprint Alejandro Valverde. Thibaut Pinot hasn’t won a single race this season and naturally, he’s eager to change that fact. He came out of the Vuelta in good shape but like many others in this race, he probably needs to solo away in order to win. The same goes for Alberto Contador. I was a bit disappointed by Contador last Sunday but in Milano-Torino he showed to have found his climbing legs again. He wasn’t on top of his game but if he keeps on progressing like that, he should be among the first riders on Sunday. Team Saxo-Tinkoff also has in-shape Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka (2^nd in Milano-Torino) on the start line and they should be able to snatch up a good result. Also, look out for riders like Simon Clarke and Franco Pellizotti. Clarke did very well last Sunday while Pellizotti showed in Milano-Torino to be in great shape. 

For a super-super joker, look to Louis Meintjes. The young South African rider finished second in the U23 road race last week and showed on the Fiesole climb how strong he is right now. Alone he bridged the gap to Matej Mohoric and even though he couldn’t stay with the strong Slovenian rider on the descents, he managed to keep the peloton behind him all the way to the line. In Milano-Torino, Meintjes joined a couple of attacks on the final climb and he is now very eager to find out what he can do against the elite this Sunday. We can’t expect this young man to win Il Lombardia, but if Louis Meintjes can make Top15 it would be a huge result for him and his wildcard team MTN-Qhubeka.

For live coverage of Il Lombardia go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

Katusha did exactly what we expected on stage 9 and Dani Moreno showed how strong he is right now. Nicolas Roche lost the Red Jersey by one second to Moreno and it will be interesting to see who will lead the race after Monday’s extremely tough day in the mountains.

Stage 10 is the last day to overcome before the first rest day of the race. On paper, this is a good stage for a breakaway to make it but it has to be a break of very strong riders. The first 74 km don’t include any categorized climbs but there are several long hills which will make for a hard start of this stage. Everybody knows the breakaway has a chance today and therefore we can expect a fast start with many attacks.

Alto de Monachil. 8.5 km / 7.7 % avg.

The first part of the stage is tough but it’s nothing compared to the final 36 km. Alto de Monachil starts after 150 km in the saddle. The 8.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of 7.7 % and the first four kilometers are very steep. There are just 27.8 to go from the top of Alto de Monachil and after a descent, which is not easy at all, Alto de Hazallanas starts right away.

The first 5 kilometers have an average gradient of 5 %. The following 3-4 km are more or less flat and after a descent through Güéjar Sierra, the actually climb begins. The final 7 km kick up with 8.5 % and there are numerous parts of over 15 %. With two kilometers to go the gradients almost reach 20 % and this will be a perfect place for the pure climbers to put in a strong attack. The final km is not very steep and the stage actually ends with a little descent towards the line.

So far Dani Moreno has been the strongest rider uphill in the race and it’ difficult to see him losing the Red Jersey. However, the time differences between the first five are still very small. Horner, in fifth place, is only 28 seconds behind Moreno. It’s now up to Katusha to control the race and I’m personally looking forward to see when/if Purito attacks. He doesn’t seem to be on top of his game right now but he needs to take back time on Nibali and the other GC riders. The steep gradients suit Purito perfectly and even if he can’t drop his rivals, he can lead the way for Dani Moreno to attack in the final and extend his lead.

Compared to the steady uphill finish on Saturday, this final climb doesn’t suit Ivan Basso very well. The Cannondale captain is without a doubt in great shape right now but the constant change of rhythm is not good for Basso. That being said, if Basso shows the same strength as the other day, he won’t lose much time to guys like Moreno, Purito and Valverde.

Especially Alejandro Valverde will be interesting to follow on the final climb. I expect Movistar to put a rider in the morning breakaway and by that make Katusha do all the work in the peloton. Valverde hesitated a bit when Dani Moreno attacked on stage 9 but he still showed good legs by taking second place. In the last couple of uphill finishes, Valverde and Purito have waited until the final 500 meters by attacking their rivals. If they attack a bit earlier on Hazallanas, they could really take some time. Also, if the peloton catches the breakaway, it will be difficult to beat Valverde in a finish like this one.

Alto de Hazallanas. 15.8 km / 5 % avg.

Chris Horner had big hopes for Saturday’s uphill finish but after a couple of strong attacks, he couldn’t respond when Roche, Basso and Moreno went away. Horner likes it steep but not on a short distance as in Valdepeñas de Jaén. Alto de Hazallanas is a perfect climb for the American veteran and I’m sure he will try to take back the Red Jersey.

On paper, Astana has one of the strongest teams in this year’s Vuelta. However, Vincenzo Nibali was very isolated the other day. Only Tanel Kangert was with him in the end and right now, it doesn’t seem like Nibali is on the same level as Dani Moreno and Nicolas Roche. It may come later in the race, I’m sure it does, but he still has work to do. His teammate Jakob Fuglsang has deliberately lost one minute after the other in order to drop out of the overall classification. Fuglsang aims at winning a stage after missing out in Dauphiné and in the Tour earlier this year. As pointed out, this is a good day for a breakaway and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jakob Fuglsang in the break. Fuglsang is eager to win and he needs to take advantage of his post-Tour shape before it’s too late. If you’re looking for a joker for the stage win, I’ll suggest the Danish climber.

The final climb is also suiting riders like Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Sergio Henao and Leopold König very well. König has already shown his strength and even though I doubt he wins this stage, he should be able to stay near the favorites. Sergio Henao is 3:28 min after in the overall classification and even though there is still a long way to Madrid, he soon needs to start taking back time. Henao is a great climber and if he has the legs to do it, he should attack early on the final 7 kilometers. Pozzovivo started out this Vuelta aiming for top5 overall but he too has some ground to make up. The pint-sized Italian is not afraid of attacking from a far and this climb is pretty much perfect for him. If the other GC riders start looking at each other, I’m sure Pozzovivo will try to sneak away.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 10, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de Suisse: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Modified stage profile. Not official but should be accurate.

As I already wrote in the overall preview, Stage 2 has been modified due to bad weather in the mountains. That means the early HC-climb Nufenenpass has been cancelled and the stage has been shortened from 160 to 117.2 km.

A short stage is a fast stage and without the climb in the beginning, the peloton will be starting out in high speed. Many riders will look to get in the breakaway and thereby have an advantage starting the final climb. Without bonus seconds on the line the GC contenders don’t have to focus on the stage win but I think it will come back together and end with one of the favorites winning on Crans Montana.

Crans Montana is a frequently used climb in Tour de Suisse. Last time the race finished here, Mauricio Soler won. The Colombian climber crashed horribly on the following stage but luckily, he survived. The stage win on Crans Montana was the last in Soler's way too short career. Movistar will be eager to pay tribute to Soler on Crans Montana and in Rui Costa they have a strong contender for the stag win. Also, teammate Andrey Amador is a good outsider with a late attack.

The climb itself is 16.3 km long and has an average gradient of about 6.5 %. The last couple of kilometers are the steepest with parts of 8.5 % and 7.2 % towards the line. I think Movistar will try to control the race and together with GreenEdge I doubt they will let a break get too far away. My joker for the overall classification Cameron Meyer took a lot of times on his rivals in the opening time trial and I think it will be very difficult to rip the yellow jersey off his shoulders on this stage.

It won’t be easy to beat Movistar but I think Thibaut Pinot is one of the few riders who can. The French climber has his eyes fixed on the Tour but that doesn’t mean he don’t race to win in Tour de Suisse. The hard race suits him fine and despite this being a short stage, he final climb is right up his alley. Pinot did very well in the opening time trial and after a strong performance in Bayern-Rundfahrt, I think he will be fighting for the win on Crans Montana.

My two personal jokers for the stage win are Tanel Kangert and Damiano Caruso. Kangert was one of the big revelations in this year’s Giro d’Italia and he still seems to be in great shape. He turned out to be one of the best helpers for Nibali in the mountains and he showed to be very strong when he took 5^th place in GP Gippingen last Thursday. Astana have Brajkovic in the race as well but the Slovenian may need a day or two before his legs are used to racing again. I think Astana will try to set-up Kangert for the stage win and he might as well pull it off.

Damiano Caruso wasn’t planned to ride the Giro d’Italia this year but after Ivan Basso got injured, Caruso had to change his race schedule and take part. He was rather invisible the first part of the race but as he raced into shape he finished the Giro in a very strong way. Caruso now hopes to do well in the overall classification in Tour de Suisse and to take a stage win along the way. There are many strong riders on the start list but if Caruso can ride as he did on the hilly time trial in the Giro (finished 3^rd), he will be up there for the win, I think.

Favorites: Rui Costa & Thibaut Pinot

Jokers: Tanel Kangert & Damiano Caruso

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Tour de Suisse 2013 / 8-16 June.

While Critérium du Dauphiné still is in its final face in France, the second Tour de France warm-up race, Tour de Suisse, is just about to start. 

The big favorites for the Tour are riding in Dauphine this year but that doesn’t mean we won’t get a great race to see in Switzerland. With three mountain stages, two individual time trials and four undulating sprint stages; every day will be important for the overall classification.

Unfortunately, there are already bad news. Stage 2 has been modified because of bad weather in the mountains and even though the final climb still stands, the hard start of the stage has been changed.

Looking at the start list I see at least five riders with a chance of winning Tour de Suisse overall. Tejay van Garderen, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, Ryder Hesjedal and Thibaut Pinot are all suited for the nine stages in this year’s edition. Especially TJ and Rui Costa will have an advantage with the two time trials.

Rui Costa won the race overall last year after winning the first stage uphill to Verbier. The strong Portuguese rider was under attack from every side in the final stages but thanks to teammate Alejandro Valverde, he managed to pull off the biggest win of his career. This year Rui Costa is back to defend his title and prove last year wasn’t one-time-thing. He won’t have Valverde to help him but riders like Amador, Karpets and Visconti (winner of two stages in the Giro d’Italia) should be enough. Rui Costa finished 3^rd overall in Tour de Romandie and I think he will make podium again in Switzerland this time. He’s strong uphill and downhill and will beat most of the other GC contenders in the final time trial.

The biggest threat to Rui Costa is Tejay van Garderen. The young American just won Tour of California last month and is obviously in great shape. Cadel Evans wants to lead BMC in the Tour this year but after a tough Giro d’Italia, I have my doubts if he will be strong enough. TJ turned out to be the strongest of the two riders last year and if he puts in another strong performance here, the BMC team will have to think hard about their pick for designated Tour captain. TJ isn’t the best climber in the race but he is strong enough to resist and stay close to the leader before the final time trial. It’s not a flat time trial this year though. The last 10 km are uphill with an average gradient of 9% but I don’t think any of the other GC contenders can beat TJ against the clock. There are no bonus seconds in this year’s Tour de Suisse and that means that if TJ can stay close to the favorites in the mountains, he can take back the lost time in the final time trial.

Team Blanco have already landed a new sponsor for the next two and half years (Belkin, starting from the Tour) so the pressure to perform is not as big as earlier. Still, they send a very strong team to Switzerland this year. The team have always done well here and with riders like Mollema, Sanchez, Nordhaug, Kruijswijk & Kelderman, I’m sure they will do something great. Mollema is the man for the general classification and being strong uphill, fast on the line and solid against the clock, I think he will be among the best uphill. Mollema is coming straight from a training camp in Sierra Nevada and even though that some times can result in mixed performances, I think he will be up there.

It’s difficult to rate Ryder Hesjedal. He came to the Giro in the something near the shape of his life but got sick. His legs were great in the beginning of the race but it’s never easy to say how they will respond after three weeks out of competition. Naturally, he is one of the big favorites if he’s ready again but with a mountain stage already on the second day, he can’t afford to start out too far of the pace.

I personally look forward to seeing what Thibaut Pinot has to offer in this race. The French climber showed a bit of his huge potential in last year’s Tour de France and this year he’s back to show more. Pinot is excellent on the hills and despite a somehow disappointing first half of the season, I think he will be gunning for the overall podium in Tour de Suisse. Pinot had high hopes for Tour de Romandie this year but only ended 12^th overall after the race organizers had to modify the big mountain stage. The Frenchman is still without a win this year and I think he will be eager to end that streak on the uphill finish on Stage 2. It’s a hard race and that suits Pinot just fine. His chances are never improved by two time trials but with the final one ending uphill, I think he will have good chances of making podium.

There are a long list of strong riders taking part in this year’s Tour de Suisse and as always in these Tour de France warm-up races we should see a couple of surprises. I think the final Top10 will be something like this:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Rui Costa

3. Bauke Mollema

4. Thibaut Pinot

5. Ryder Hesjedal

6. Peter Velits
7. Damiano Caruso

8. Janez Brajkovic

9. Simon Spilak

10. Diego Ulissi

Knocking on the door to Top10 I see riders like Kangert, Scarponi, Kreuziger, Dan Martin, Peraud, Dombrowski, Antón, De Greef, Monfort, Klöden & Roche. Also, notice that Andy Schleck is on the start list. He has already said he’s not going to win the Tour de France this year but he normally has a good day or two in Tour de Suisse. He may not be able to follow the best on the hills but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him attack from a far a couple of times.

As always, I have a joker for you. This time it’s Andrey Amador. He broke his collarbone - yes, again, third year in a row - when he crashed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege but he’s now ready to take on the second part of the season. It’s difficult to say how he will do without racing for almost two months but I have a feeling he will be up for it. The Costa Rican showed his great climbing legs in last year’s Giro d’Itlaia and did very well in Tirreno-Adriatico this year. He finished 8^th overall in the Italian stage race thanks to a surprisingly good time trial on the final day. Amador will start out this race as helper for Rui Costa but if he’s feeling good, I don’t see why Movistar shouldn’t end up with two riders in Top10 overall. Andrey Amador is also set to ride the Tour in support of Alejandro Valverde and he needs to show the team that he is up for the task.

Another good joker is Cameron Meyer. He's been doing better and better overall in the stage races the last years and the two time trials definitely favors the Australian. GreenEdge don't really have a team to support him in the mountains and that can be a problem. Still, I think he will be able to put in a great performance and end near Top10.

Contrary to Dauphiné, the stages in Tour de Suisse start rather late every day. That means the first rider won’t cross the finishing line until 18:30-19:00 CET. The two time trials end earlier though. Stage 1 around 16:45 and Stage 9 around 17:45.

For live coverage during the race check out steephill.tv.

Tour Preview - Stage 7

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Finally. After a week of sprinting it's time to test the climbing legs. Despite it being the first mountain stage of the Tour it's only categorized as a "hilly" stage, but don't be fooled. It's true there is only one steep climb on the menu, but that is also a very nasty one!

The 5,9 km up to La Planche des Belles Filles have an average of 8,5% with ramps of 11%, 13% and over 20% on the last steep part towards the finishing line. It's a tiny road with the cold mountain wall on one side and trees on the other and without many turns the riders constantly will be able to see each other up the road. Just when you think you've reached the top of the climb and it's flat for about 100 meters you turn right up in the sky hitting the steepest part of the climb with percentages up to 22%. The last 50 meters or so are flat. Not that it will change anything though.

Favorites:

The way I see it there are two scenarios:

1) A break of 6-10 riders gets a good gap and they end up fighting for the stage win while the favorites only focus on each other minutes behind.

2) A break gets away but teams like FDJ (Pinot), Lampre (Scarponi) & Cofidis (Moncoutie/Taaramae) aren't represented up front and start to chase in order to have a crack at in the final. Also Rabobank (Gesink, Mollema & Kruijswijk) could easily take responsibility and chase the break. All ending up with the favorites fighting it out for the stage win and the yellow jersey.

Personally I think the scenario #1 is most likely to happen. Everybody knows that the winner on La Planche des Belles Filles (almost certainly) will take the polka dot jersey (2x10 points) and because of that, we should see guys like Chris Anker Sørensen (+5 min), Johnny Hoogerland (+14 min), Daniel Martin (+19 min), Matt Lloyd (+20 min) & David Moncoutie (+20 min) try their luck. All 5 have said they are aiming for the polka dot jersey and this stage is definitely one they have red-circled from the beginning. Let's hope neither of them get too banged up on yesterday's carnage stage.

After Stage 5 Bjarne Riis said that the man for the weekend is Chris Anker Sørensen and knowing how much the Danish climber wants to show himself and get in the fight for jersey, I will be surprised not to see him up front if a good break gets away. Also David Moncoutie will be eager to get in the break. The final climb is quite similar to Mont Faron - one of Moncoutie's favorite climbs - and the steep parts really suit the French veteran. The weather forecast shows sunny conditions and that is very good news for David Moncoutie who likes it hot and dry.

Steep parts of 13% towards the line.

I mentioned FDJ and Pinot before and that's for a reason. Thibaut Pinot lives nearby and know the way up to La Planche des Belles Filles very well. He has been training a lot on it this year already and said that it is his big dream to win on this climb. 

Looking at the GC favorites this is truly a climb that favors the pure climbers. The ramps of 11%, 13% and 20% comes and go meaning that you constantly have to change the rhythm. Not exactly Bradley Wiggins' cup of tea. For Wiggins it's all about minimizing the gaps and make sure Team Sky set a pace so high no one is able to attack.


Before yesterday's stage I would picked Wout Poels and Pierre Rolland  as solid candidates for the win, but after Poels crashed and withdrew and Rolland crashed and hurt his shoulder and his back, I think I better drop those two again. Still if Rolland is ready, he could really take revenge on this steep climb!

Winner pick: David Moncoutie from a break or Pierre Rolland among the GC riders if he's ready again.

Joker: Thibaut Pinot


For pictures of the final climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles click her!

Volta Catalunya 2012

With just a few hours to the start of this year's Volta Catalunya here is a quick preview of the race.

Without a time trial in and with a lot of uphill sections Alejandro Valverde is of course the number one favorite. He has a great team around him with Moreno, Pardilla, Arroyo, Quintana etc. and it will take a real climber like Daniel Martin or Robert Gesink to beat him in the overall classification. Samuel Sanches is another rider with a good chance in the GC, same goes for Janez Brajkovic. Astana actually expect the Slovenian to fight for the overall win here.

I don't have much time to dig in any deeper about the favorites, so I figured I would give you my pre-top10 for the GC instead. Here you go:

1. Valverde
2. Gesink
3. Samu
4. Martin
5. Brajkovic
6. Andy
7. Cunego
8. Van den Broeck
9. Uran
10. Navarro

As always I would like to mention a few jokers for the GC. First up is the French youngster Thibout Pinot who climbs very well and aims high on this race. Pinot has a lot of strong riders around him and if he is ready he should be able to fight for a top10 spot, maybe even more. Second joker is Nairo Quintana. He won Vuelta a Murcia thanks to his performances in the mountains and even though he will have to help his team mate Alejandro Valverde, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting a good result for himself as well.