Tour de France: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

We expected chaos, we expected crashes and we expected a bunch sprint. Yet, Stage 1 managed to surprise us. Marcel Kittel took the first Yellow Jersey but it won't be easy for him to keep on Stage 2. It’s a short stage of only 156 km and that means a fast day in the saddle.

The Route

The intermediate sprint is located in Castello Di-Rostino after just 33 km. That means a break most likely won’t get away as early as on Stage 1. The climbs and the finish - more on that later - will make it hard for Mark Cavendish to fight for the win. Therefore, the Manxman needs to win the intermediate sprint in order not to lose terrain in the fight for the Green Jersey.

The first categorized climb starts after 63 km but actually, the road already kicks up 15 km earlier. This is a great place for a breakaway to be established and with three KOM sprints within the next 50 km, many riders will be eager to get away. Euskaltel’s sprinter Juanjo Lobato could try to hang on to the Polka Dot Jersey but I doubt it. The first climb isn’t very steep but the next two both have an average gradient of 6‑7 % and are better suited Lobato’s strong teammates.

There are about 60 km to go from the top of the penultimate climb and after a descent of more than 30 km, there’s only one obstacle left for the riders to overcome before the final.

The Finish

With 13 km to go, the peloton faces Côte du Salario. This little category 3 climb is only 1 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.9 %. The long descent from Col de Vizzavona isn’t very technical and the teams of the pure sprinters will have to push hard in order to come back. I expect most of the sprinters to be in the peloton when Côte du Salario starts. Cannondale and Peter Sagan knows they need to drop Cavendish and Kittel on the climb and they will probably set a high speed early on the stage to make sure Cavendish is already tired reaching the final climb.

The last 10 km of Stage 2 - click for larger view.

The final 10 km takes place alongside the Mediterranean Sea without any difficult corners to tackle. The sprinters dropped on Côte du Salario will have to work hard to come back and even if they manage to, they will have problems again with 2 km to go. Here the road kicks up with about 5 % for 500 meters and if Cannondale and other teams can keep a high speed, I doubt the pure sprinters will make it back.

The Favorites

As you can see, my big favorite is Peter Sagan. He’s not as fast as Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel but on a route like this one, he’s the best. Sagan has no problems overcoming the climbs and if Cavendish isn’t in the bunch, this is a day Sagan can’t afford to miss out. Sagan not only aims to win the Green Jersey again this year, he also wants to wear the Yellow Jersey. The Cannondale team is built up around him with a special focus on the team time trial to keep Peter Sagan in yellow should Stage 2 and 3 go as planned. Therefore, they won’t let a break get too far away. King Sagan wants the Yellow Jersey and Cannondale will do whatever they can to make it happen. The only question is how Sagan's body will respond after his crash on Stage 1. Sagan went down hard and you know it's serious when he doesn't do any stunts crossing the finishing in a small group. The Slovakian Wonderboy will be eager to take revenge and he really needs a good place on this stage if he wants to wear the Yellow Jersey after Stage 3.

One of the few riders who can come close to Peter Sagan is John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano is not all about Marcel Kittel, they also have Degenkolb who won five (!) stages in last year’s Vuelta España. I doubt Kittel can get over the climbs - despite yellow wings - near the front but Degenkolb shouldn't have problems. The strong German went head-to-head with Peter Sagan in Tour de Suisse recently but didn’t really have the speed to pass him in the final. Still, the Tour de France is a different thing and with a long straight out sprint, Degenkolb may have a chance.

It wouldn’t be fair not to mention Matt Goss on a stage like this one. The Australian sprinter won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this year against Sagan, Greipel and Cavendish. Again, it’s important to note the difference between the Italian one-week stage race and Tour de France. The route on Stage 2 favors Matt Goss compared to the pure sprinters and I’m sure GreenEdge will try to set him up again. Personally, I doubt he can beat Peter Sagan but with a perfect leadout from Daryl Impey, it’s definitely not impossible. Another thing is that Daryl Impey finished 11th on Stage 1. That means that if GreenEdge can set him up for a top place - in front of the 10 other riders form Stage 1 - Impey could end up in yellow! That should give the Australian team something to think about...

The Jokers

I could use the joker section to name a few good riders for a breakaway but I honestly can’t see a break making it on this stage. This is a golden opportunity for riders like Sagan and Goss (both with two dedicated teams) to get rid of Cavendish and the others before the final sprint and they need to control the race. Instead, I’d like to point out Tony Gallopin. The young Frenchman is in great shape right now and he was very close in the French Nationals last week when he took the bronze medal. Gallopin is very fast on the line in a reduced group and he shouldn’t have any problems overcoming the climbs. Unfortunately Tony Gallopin also went down in the big crash on Stage 1. He didn't break anything but reports pain in his right arm, back and right hip. If he can cope with the pain this is a good opportunity for him but if not let's look to other jokers.

First one is the new French Champion, Arthur Vichot. He was outstanding in the French Nationals keeping Gallopin and Chavanel behind him and he's also very fast in a reduced group. Nacer Bouhanni is FDJ’s designated sprinter but if he can’t keep up on the hills, I would expect FDJ to try setting up Vichot for the sprint.

Another one who should find this stage appealing is Francesco Gavazzi. While teammates Brajkovic, Lutsenko and Murayev all crashed, Gavazzi somehow managed to stay upright. The Italian rider is fast on the line and he has no problems with these kind of climbs. Gavazzi has been very consistent in Top5 this year and if everything works out for him, he could take his first win of the season in Ajaccio.

Also, look out for Samuel Dumoulin. The little French sprinter took 6th place on Stage 1 and with another top performance; he could very well end up in the yellow jersey after the stage.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Tony Gallopin / Arhur Vichot / Francesco Gavazzi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 2:

Tour de France 2013: Preview & Favorites

The Tour de France route 2013 - click for larger view.

Many people criticized last year’s Tour de France of being ’too boring’. Looking at start list, I doubt that will be the case this year.

It’s true that Team Sky once again have the big favorite but the compared to last year, there are a lot more riders able to fight for the final podium.

This year’s race includes 21 stages. I have divided them into the following categories:

6 x “100 % sprint”.

2-3 x “sprint in a reduced peloton”.

3 x time trials; 2 ITT and 1 TTT.

4 x mountain top finish

2 x mountain downhill finish

3-4 x hilly/breakaway

Both of the individual time trials are short this year (33 km & 32 km) and with an extremely hard last week (one hilly ITT and three mountain stages in the Alps), it’s safe to say that the pure climbers have a good chance of succeeding this year. I have a good feeling about the first five riders in the general classification. Still, I only see two riders with a solid chance of winning Tour de France overall. My view on the riders’ chances can be categorized like this (the order is irrelevant):

Winner:	Podium:
Chris Froome	Richie Porte
Alberto Contador	Alejandro Valverde
	Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
Top5:	Top10:
Cadel Evans	Thibaut Pinot
Tejay van Garderen	Jakob Fuglsang
Jurgen Van den Broeck	Bauke Mollema
Ryder Hesjedal	Daniel Navarro
Nairo Quintana	Jean-Christophe Peraud
	Haimar Zubeldia
Top20:	Rein Taaramae
Rui Costa	Pierre Rolland
Damiano Cunego	Dan Martin
Andy Schleck
Wout Poels
Andrey Amador
Roman Kreuziger
Janez Brajkovic
Robert Gesink
Daniel Moreno
Arnold Jeannesson
Laurens Ten Dam
Igor Antón
Thomas De Gendt
Michal Kwiatkowski
Mikel Nieve Andrew Talansky

Chris Froome has been the best stage race rider this year and anything but a top performance from him in the Tour will be a big surprise. He is one of the best time trialists in the race and despite the short distances; he will be able to take a lot of times on this rivals against the clock. Had it been Wiggins, I would expect the climbers to take back the time in the mountains but Chris Froome will be very difficult to drop uphill. He was the strongest rider in the mountains in the last year’s Tour de France and he only seems to be stronger this year. Furthermore, he has Richie Porte to help him. 

Porte has taken a big step up the ladder this season with his overall win in Paris-Nice and his second place (behind Froome) in Dauphiné. Porte’s next big individual target is the Giro d’Italia 2014 but that doesn’t stop him from talking about a podium spot in this year’s Tour. The time trials are definitely in Porte’s favor but I don’t think Team Sky can make a double (1^st & 2^nd) like last year. Still, third place overall doesn’t seem unlikely. It all depends on how strong Froome is in the last week. If he gets isolated early, naturally he’ll have to use Porte early as well. If not, Team Sky probably end with two riders on the podium again this year.

Many are questioning Alberto Contador’s chances. This year he hasn’t been as strong as earlier but what people tend to forget is that this has all been part of a bigger plan. Read more about that here and see what his teammate Jesus Hernandez says about Contador's chances. It's also important to remember that Contador's results haven't been bad at all. He was 4^th overall in San Luis, 2^nd overall in Oman, 3^rd overall in Tirreno, 5^th overall Pais Vasco and 10^th overall in Dauphiné. Contador said he was only on 75 % in Dauphiné and I think he would have won the final stage had he not waited for Michael Rogers. Many would probably have a different view on Contador’s chances had he won that last stage and I guess that’s why so many don’t think he stands a chance against Chris Froome. Personally, I think it will be a close fight between Froome and Contador but it all depends on how much time Contador loses to Froome in the time trials.

As my list reveals I expect Valverde & Purito to be fighting for a spot on the final podium. This year’s route is as perfect as it gets for Purito. The time trials are short and the final one is very hilly. He will probably lose about four minutes to Froome against the clock but he has a chance of taking some of it back in the mountains and in the stages ending downhill. Few - if any - in the professional peloton can match Purito’s kick uphill and I won’t be surprised if he takes 10-15 seconds on Froome (thanks to late attacks close to the line) in a couple of the uphill finishes. Purito is also very good on the descents and knowing he needs to take back time, he should embrace every opportunity he gets. The most important thing for Purito this year is to get the overall place “he deserves”. Most likely he feels that he should have won both the Giro and the Vuelta last year and therefore he now hopes to end where he deserves. 2^nd or 8^th is not ‘that’ important it seems - as long as it matches his performance.

Alejandro Valverde has one of the strongest teams in the race to support him this year but that doesn’t help him much in the time trials. I think Movistar will be very close to Team Sky in the team time trial but in the two individual ones, Valverde will lose time. Therefore, he too needs to attack. His big goal is a spot on the podium in Paris and with super domestiques like Quintana and Rui Costa (and Amador) he can’t complain about the support. I doubt Valverde can drop Contador, Froome and Purito uphill but he will be able to drop many of the other contenders with help from his team and especially Nairo Quintana.

Stage 15, 18, 19 & 20.
Click for larger view.

The Colombian super climber could very well aim at Top5 himself this year but he knows the time is not right. He is still young and this year everything is build up around Valverde. Quintana has been preparing himself for the Tour home in Colombia for the last two months. Contrary to many of the Tour riders, he will arrive to Corsica without any recent race competition in his legs and I won’t be surprised if he loses time in the first week. That being said, don’t be surprised either if Quintana is fighting with Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen for the white jersey in the last week. The final week is so extremely hard this year and anything can happen. A couple of lost minutes from the first week is nothing compared to final days in the Alps.

Before the Giro d’Italia started this year, I doubted Cadel Evans chances of success, what a mistake! The Australian veteran had been talking about peaking in the Tour the whole season and therefore I couldn’t see him dig deep in the Giro. Still, he managed to finish third overall. 

The Giro was very hard this year though, despite the cancelled climbs, and once again I now doubt Evans’ chances. Maybe it’s a mistake but is it really possible - in modern cycling - to do Top3 in the Giro and Top3 in the Tour the same year? Especially with two such hard routes? Time will tell. 

BMC also have Tejay van Garderen to play but according to the American, he’s only here to help his captain. This is most likely Cadel Evans' last chance to lead a team in the Tour - aiming at the GC - and I think the team really want to back him up. Van Garderen still has about 10 years ahead of him on top level and sacrificing one year - and still doing well in the GC - shouldn't really be a big issue for him. 

There are many [equally] strong riders fighting for the Top10 places this year and instead of going through all of them (see my list above for that matter), I’ll leave you with a couple of jokers. First one is Daniel Navarro. After being one of Contador’s faithful helpers for many years, Navarro now has a chance to show his own potential. Saxo-Tinkoff didn’t want to keep Navarro at his current salary and when Cofidis were ready to make him captain, the choice wasn’t really that tough for the Spanish climber. So far it’s been a great match. Daniel Navarro finished 12^th overall in Paris-Nice, 16^th overall in Catalunya and latest 5^th overall in Dauphiné where he were among the strongest uphill.  Originally the plan for the Tour was to aim at a stage win but with the impressive performances in Dauphiné, Cofidis & Navarro now aim at the overall classification instead. The French team also have Rein Taaramae for the GC and together with Jerome Coppel and Christophe Le Mevel they have a very strong team to support Navarro. In fact, Cofidis are my outsider for the Team Classification this year.

I also expect a strong performance from Andrey Amador. He’s probably only ranked fourth in the Movistar team for this Tour de France but I think we will see a lot of him, especially in the third week. Amador is an excellent climber and like [teammate] Quintana, he’s been preparing himself at home in the mountains. The Irazú volcano [3500 meters above sea level] in Costa Rica is where Amador has been training and he showed in Tour de Suisse that he’s ready with a strong performance in the final time trial. In the Tour de France Andrey Amador hopes to hit a morning breakaway and take a stage win like he did in the Giro d’Italia last year. Naturally, helping Valverde is the number one priority but it can also be a tactical advantage for Movistar to have Amador in a breakaway. Contrary to many other climbers Amador is also very good against the clock which will help Movistar in the team time trial. I expect them to make Top3 that day.

Before I end this Preview, let's take a look at the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan was my big favorite last year and he turned out to be even stronger than expected. This year, he’s once again the favorite but if Mark Cavendish is back on his top level, it will be a close fight. I see at least six “sure” sprint stages and even though Sagan is fast, he’s not as fast as Cavendish, Greipel & Kittel. There are more points up for grab in the flat stages. That means if Cavendish wins four of five stages without Sagan making Top3, he will get a good advantage. Sagan will be in the mix some days where Cavendish can’t keep up though. Still, I think it will be very close this year. Also, both Sagan and Cavendish have high hopes of wearing the Yellow Jersey early in the race this year. Therefore, what will end as a fight for green most likely will start out as a fight for yellow!

Many people ask me about my picks for the four jerseys. I think both the Polka Dot Jersey and the White Jersey are very tough to call this year but if I had to, these would be my picks:

Yellow: Chris Froome
Green: Peter Sagan
Polka Dot: Damiano Cunego / or an Euskaltel rider
White: Nairo Quintana
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Team GC: Movistar

Again this year, there will be daily Stage Previews during the Tour. I know many of you would like them online early but I simply don't have time to publish them before 21:00 - 22:00 CET. 

The stages of this year's Tour de France are set to finish around 17:00 / 17:30 CET. If you find yourself without a TV, go to steephill.tv for live streams.