Tour de France: Stage 21 Preview & Favorites

This year’s Tour de France ends with the three best climbers on the final podium. Everybody knew it would be a race for the climbers and it really was. Alberto Contador didn’t have the legs this year and he only finishes fourth overall - surprisingly enough, a fair result after the last das in the Alps. It’s probably only Alejandro Valverde who can look back a feel he didn’t end where he deserved.

Now it’s time for Paris and this year’s finish will be spectacular. The 100^th edition of the Tour de France ends with an evening stage in the French capital and we are in for a real treat. The riders may not like the late finish but for the TV-viewers it will be great.

The Route

The stage starts at Palace of Versailles and finishes 133.5 km later on Champs-Élysées, most likely with a bunch sprint. For the first time in many years, there are two categorized climbs on the menu this final day. The first one is Côte de Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse and after 33.5 km the riders will pass the Jacques Anquetil monument on the top of Côte de Châteaufort. We will probably see Polka Dot winner Nairo Quintana first over the climb showing off his new jersey for the first time in the race.

The Finish

As always, the real action won’t start until the riders hit Champs-Élysées. From here on, it’s “race on” and the 10 laps will be completed in a furious pace. To celebrate this 100 Years Anniversary, the route takes the riders around Arc de Triomphe instead of turning just before as we have seen in the past.  The sprinters’ teams will try to control the race but they also have to save a little energy for the final. The leadout trains have never been more important than they are this year and it will be crucial to have enough manpower left for the final.

The Favorites

Mark Cavendish has won the last four years in a row and he is the favorite again this year. Compared to Marcel Kittel he has a lot more experience and he knows he can deliver after three hard weeks. Omega Pharma Quickstep still have all nine riders in the race and that will be an important factor. Argos-Shimano had to say goodbye to Tom Veelers just two days before Paris and it’s now up to John Degenkolb and Koen de Kort to leadout Marcel Kittel. Actually, the key word may not be leadout but instead deliver. Usually Kittel wins after a perfect leadout but he has come from behind in all his three stage wins in this Tour. Compared to Greipel, Kittel doesn’t seem to need a strong leadout and that favors him compared to his German compatriot.

Lotto-Belisol lost Marcel Sieberg the other day and that means they won’t be able to take the lead with 4 riders on the last kilometer as they have done earlier in the race. Greipel hasn’t been able to come from behind in the Tour this year and with only Roelandts and Henderson I doubt he will be able to win on Champs-Élysées.

The last of the four big sprinters is Peter Sagan. He has already won the Green Jersey and he now longer needs just to “cruise” into Top5 on the stage. Last year Peter Sagan finished second on the stage and said he could have won without having to close the big gap after Greipel had problems with his bike. Sagan may have enough raw power to take the win on the final meters but against Kittel and Cavendish, it will be very difficult.

The Joker

This time my joker is Alexander Kristoff. He has been left alone to do the sprints the whole race but now Katusha can finally use riders to help deliver him on the right wheel. These power sprints are close to impossible to win without a team around you and that’s why we haven’t seen Kristoff in Top3 except for the very first stage. The morale must be high at Katusha right now after Purito secured a spot on the final podium and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kristoff finishes like he started with a top performance.

It’s difficult to pick between Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel for the stage win. Cavendish has the experience but Kittel has proven to be the fastest on the final meters. Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely have two riders in front of Cavendish heading into the last corner and I’m sure Cavendish is to take revenge after he missed out on Yellow on stage 1. Therefore, the Manxman is my favorite.

Thank you for reading my previews during the Tour!

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Joker: Alexander Kristoff

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 21:

Tour de France: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

As expected, it all ended in a bunch sprint on Stage 12 and that should be scenario again on Friday’s Stage 13. Let’s hope this superstitious combination won’t send more riders to the ground as ASO once again have made the final, well, shall we say “interesting” - more on that later.

The Route

Like Thursday’s stage, this is another flat one. There is a small category 4 climb with about 100 km to go but the 1.2 km of 4 % towards the top of Côte de Crotz will barely be noticed in the peloton. The intermediate sprint is located after 112.5 km of the stage and we will see the peloton speed up as usually, which should kill a breakaway’s chances of succeeding.

The route takes the riders southeast and that could make for interesting racing if the wind is strong. As it is now, it won’t be a factor though. With ‘only’ 173 km and a light tailwind, it will be a very fast stage and I can’t see a break making it. This is most likely the last stage for the sprinters before Paris and they simply can’t afford to miss out.

The final two kilometers of Stage 13.

The Finish

Looking at the profile, there seems to be a tough climb close to the line. That isn’t the case. The road does kick up a little but only for 2.5 km with an average of 2.6 %. This surely won’t be enough to drop the sprinters. The run-in towards the finishing line isn’t very complicated but again ASO have decided to spice it up with a couple of tricky corners on the last kilometer. First the peloton turns left in a roundabout, then right - onto a smaller road - then right again and finally left in a roundabout with 400 meters to go. These four corners mean it’s very important to have one or two leadout men left before the final stretch. The finishing line is placed on Rue Pelletier d’Oisy; a parallel road to Avenue du Tour de France which seems like a more logical choice? Oh well.

The Favorites

What Argos-Shimano and Marcel Kittel did on Stage 12 was simply outstanding. Without Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort delivered Marcel Kittel perfectly on the wheel of Mark Cavendish. Gert Steegmans did a great leadout for the Manxman and even though he seemed sure to take the win, Marcel Kittel managed to come around Cavendish on the final meters. Much like he on Stage 10, when Greipel seemed sure to win. Kittel is right now the fastest sprinter in the world and if Cavendish can’t beat him with a perfect leadout, it will be difficult to deny the strong German his 4^th stage win of this year’s Tour de France Friday afternoon. For the first time this Tour, Marcel Kittel is now the man to beat but I doubt he will crack under the pressure…

The sprint ended early for Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel on Stage 12. So far, they have been great at hitting the front at the right time but now it will be more than difficult. Sieberg and Henderson - two of Greipel’s most important leadout riders - both went down hard in the crash and like Veelers, they probably need a few days to get ready again. Furthermore, Jurgen Roelandts hurts his back again after another rider didn’t manage to break in time.

Omega Pharma Quickstep did everything right on Stage 12 but Cavendish simply didn’t have the legs to finish it off. Naturally he - and the team - will be eager to take revenge but against Super Kittel, it won’t be easy. Peter Sagan seems satisfied with getting third and fourth and I expect him to do that again in Saint-Amand-Montrond.

The Joker

As I said yesterday, I’m starting to run out of jokers to pick. I’ve already been through most of them and it seems like only Yohann Gene is left. Europcar have been trying to set him up for the sprint the last days and Gene is getting better and better. He has Kévin Reza to deliver him onto the right wheel and if he can stay out of trouble, he should be able to do Top10 again.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Yohann Gene

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 13:

Tour de France: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel will go head-to-head again and the tricky finish favors the Manxman.

The Route

Without a single categorized climb, there aren’t much to say about this stage. The 218 km from Fougères to Tours take the riders southeast into the country and if you had to skip one stage of this year’s Tour de France, this is probably the one to miss. The intermediate sprint is located with 52 km to go and this will most likely be the only interesting part of the stage so far. If the wind is strong enough some teams could try to split the peloton but I doubt it will happen. If so, it will be towards the intermediate sprint.

The Finish

Contrary to most of the stage, the finish is very difficult. For some reason ASO thought it was a good idea to put in not one but two 90° turns in the last kilometer. The first one comes with about 650 meters to go and the second one with only 450 meters to the line. This means it won’t be a power sprint like last time but it doesn’t undermine the importance of the leadout trains. The peloton will be stretched out significantly in these two right hand corners and you need to be among the first four or five riders into the first corner if you want to win this stage.

The Favorites

The leadout trains are again very important but the tricky finish favors Mark Cavendish. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are both best when delivered in high speed but that won’t be the case in Tours. With the final corner just 450 meters from the line, the ideal scenario would be to enter that corner in second position with one leadout rider in front. Omega Pharma Quickstep messed up last time with Steegmans and Cavendish and they will be eager to take revenge. Also, some idiot sprayed urine on Mark Cavendish in the time trial and if he can convert his rage into power, he will be very difficult to beat.

The final four kilometers of Stage 12. Click for larger view.

Lotto-Belisol have timed it very well the last couple of times with 3 or 4 riders in front with 1 km to go and if they can do that again this time, Greipel should be up for another podium spot. It’s not a sprint that favors Greipiel much but if he enters the last corner with only Greg Henderson in front of him, he should make it three German stage wins in a row.

The tricky final also seems good for Peter Sagan. Nobody in the professional peloton handles their bike like Sagan does and he’s not shy of pushing to get the right wheel when he has to. Like Cavendish, Sagan accelerates very quickly and even though he’s not as fast as Cavendish and Greipel, he should still be able to make Top3.

The Jokers

I think I’ve already mentioned all the joker candidates during the Tour so we are back to repeating a few. I’ve been very impressed by young Danny Van Poppel so far. He’s the youngest Tour debutant since WWII and almost two weeks into the race, he’s still going strong. His leadout man Kris Boeckmans had a bike problem in the final of Stage 10 and despite the crash in front of him, Van Poppel still managed to finish 9^th. Van Poppel has a fast acceleration and if he gets onto the right wheel in the final, he could very well make another top performance.

Also, look out for Cyril Lemoine. The French sprinter will be on home soil and in front of his family and friends, he will be extra motivated to do well. Lemoine knows an early breakaway may be doomed but I won’t be surprised if he tries a late attack. If not, expect Sojasun to set up Cyril Lemoine for the sprint. He should know the tricky finish better than anyone else.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel & Cyril Lemoine

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 12:

Tour de France: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

The Tour continues in Bretagne with a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. The riders start out in Saint-Gildas-Des-Bois and finish in Saint-Malo 197 km later. It’s the flat stage but the terrain is still up and down all day long. In the end, anything but a bunch sprint will be a huge surprise.

The Route

There is not much to say about the route. This is a typical transition stage made for the sprinters and with just one small category 4 climb, nobody should get dropped today. The only interesting factor is the wind. The last 25 km take place alongside the coast and we could see a strong crosswind splitting the peloton near the end. None of the GC rider want to lose any more time before Wednesday’s time trial and everybody wants to stay in front. This should make for another nervous finish and luckily the route isn’t very technical.

The Finish

Without a single corner the last 5 km, this is a perfect stage for the big power sprinters like Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. Most likely, the final kilometers will be with a strong tail wind to keep the speed high and that means the leadout trains will decide the winner. The road bend slightly to the left with about 100 meters to go and naturally, you need to take the inner lane in order to win.

The Favorites

The final 5 km of Stage 10. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol have the two best leadout trains in the race and in a high-speed sprint, it’s very important to take the final lead. Both Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are close to impossible to pass when they get to launch their sprint in high speed behind their leadout. Therefore, if Lotto-Belisol get the front; Greipel will most likely win and if Argos-Shimano get the front; Kittel should take the stage.

Lotto-Belisol timed it perfectly the last time and nobody could get even close to Andre Greipel. Greg Henderson is one of the best, if not the best, leadout rider in the world right now and if he gets to deliver Andre Greipel with 250 meters to go, I doubt anybody will be able to pass him.

A tail wind sprint does however favor the riders willing to take a chance. Few - if any - can match Mark Cavendish’ kick in the final and if Cavendish ends up without a leadout, he needs to open the sprint early. Mark Cavendish is so strong on the first meters that he can jump clear of another team’s leadout train and with a tail wind finish, he will be very difficult to catch, even for Greipel and Kittel.

It’s maybe too easy just to say that either Cavendish, Greipel or Kittel will win. Still, it all comes down to the final leadout. I think Argos-Shimano are eager to show the world the real strength of their leadout train and therefore I’ll pick Marcel Kittel to win Stage 10.

The Joker

This stage is going to end with a bunch sprint but at this point, we already know all the candidates. Picking a joker is therefore not very easy. The only rider I can think of fitting this category is Julien Simon. The French semi-sprinter (sorry Julien) did very well on Corsica but hasn’t been feeling great lately. Still, this stage takes place on his training routes and on home soil - in front of his family - Simon will be extra motivated to perform. Also, Julien Simon’s team, Sojasun, has its roots in Bretagne. A morning breakaway without a rider from the local French team will be just as surprisingly as this stage not ending in bunch sprint.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Julien Simon (or any Sojasun rider…)

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 10:

Tour de France: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

The peloton continues heading west and this stage should end up with another bunch sprint. Still, the 205.5 km includes four categorized climbs and if Cannondale and others set a high pace, some of pure sprinters may have troubles keeping up.

The Route

With the Pyrenees waiting in the weekend, the GC riders would welcome a quiet day in the saddle. The sprinters hope the same but a couple of hard climbs will make their day difficult. The first 50 km are flat but from here on the road starts to kick up. Col des 13 Vents is only a category 3 climb but its 6.9 km have an average gradient of 5.6 % and there is hard part of 8 % near the top.

After the descent, the peloton immediately starts on the next climb; Col de la Croix de Mounis. It’s the hardest climb of the day and the 6.7 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.5 %. The climb is very steep the first two kilometers and after a flat part near the top, it kicks up with over 10 %.

There are still 110 km from the top of Col de la Croix de Mounis to the finishing line in Albi. Many sprinters will be chasing the peloton at this point and most of them should be able to rejoin in time for the intermediate sprint in Viane. The next climb, Côte de la Quintaine, won’t bring the sprinters any problems and the final one, Côte de Teillet, isn’t steep either. The final 55 km are downhill and sets for a face finish. However, it doesn’t favor a breakaway much with headwind the final 35 km towards Albi.

The Finish

The final 6 km of Stage 7.

Thanks to the headwind, the peloton shouldn’t have problems bringing back a breakaway. There are three roundabouts to overcome just before entering Albi and from here on it’s pretty much straight out towards the line. Still, there is a tricky roundabout passing with 2.5 km to go and this will stretch out the peloton as the road gets smaller. That means it’s important to be well placed as the final part towards the line is very fast. You won’t win the sprint at this point but being in a poor position can very well end your chances of success.

The Favorites

Mark Cavendish missed out on Stage 6 after he crashed and had to waste a lot of energy getting back. Cavendish was furious after the stage and he’s usually good at using his rage to motivate him even more. On Stage 5 Cavendish showed that he has no problems coping with small hills and those in the final of Stage 6 shouldn’t trouble him. The category 2 climb is nasty but with over 100 km to go from the top, Omega Pharma Quickstep will have plenty of time to bring back Cavendish. This is not like on Corsica where the riders had to overcome tough climbs near the finishing line.

I’ve been talking about the importance of a good lead out train the last couple of days and there is no need to repeat all of it again. Lotto-Belisol showed how it’s done on Stage 6 and they will be eager to do it again on this stage. I still think Argos-Shimano have best train but I’m not sure how Marcel Kittel will get over the climbs. Instead I expect the Dutch team to change focus to John Degenkolb and that’s not improving their chances of a stage win. Peter Sagan will be there in the final, so will Edvald Boasson Hagen and if Cavendish and Greipel are there to, Degenkolb will simply be overmatched. The three top sprinters, Kittel, Cavendish and Greipel have now all won a stage and it’s only Peter Sagan of the big guns who’s still winless. Sagan won’t have problems on the climbs today and if the other sprinters don’t get back in time, he’s the man to beat.

The Jokers

I personally doubt a breakaway will make all the way but should it happen, look out for Juan-Antonio Flecha. The Spaniard was very active the first days on Corsica and after a few quiet days, his batteries are now re-charged. Flecha is not afraid of attacking - quite the opposite - and he’s fast on the line too. The headwind will make it difficult to keep the peloton at bay but should they miss-time it, Flecha seems like a good pick. Jens Voigt is another rider for these kind of stages. Radioshack have been unlucky the last couple of days with both Andreas Klöden and Haimar Zubeldia crashing and they could need a success story. Voigt has friends from Berlin visiting him on Stage 7 and why not show them the real Jens Voigt trademark with a strong attack?

Favorites: Mark Cavendish / Peter Sagan

Jokers: Juan-Antonio Flecha / Jens Voigt

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 7:

Tour de France: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage for the pure sprinters and the peloton shouldn’t have any problems bringing back a morning breakaway. We are in for another fight between the best sprinters in the world and hopefully we won’t see any crashes.

The Route

The 176.5 km from Aix-En-Provence to Montpellier only include a tiny climb and from its top, there are still over 100 km to go. The biggest threat today is therefore the crosswind which they riders will be battling the whole stage.

If the wind is as strong as expected, a couple of teams could really blow the race a part and the all the GC riders will have to stay in front. That means it will be a fast stage and together with high temperatures it won’t an easy day in the saddle. Not at all!

The final 9 km of the stage. 

The Finish

The finish is very easy and there is not much so say about it. Entering Montpellier the peloton only has to tackle one difficult corner the last 8 km. With 2.5 km to go the riders turn left into the tail wind and from here on it’s more or less straight out the way towards the line.

The Favorites

This is a surely a finish for big sprinters like Greipel and Kittel. Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have the two best lead out trains in the world and it will be a furious fight to take the lead on the final kilometers. Argos timed it perfectly on Stage 1 - not knowing about the bus-situation, just focusing on their plan - and I think they will end up in front on the final two kilometers. In Koen De Kort, John Degenkolb and Tom Veelers, Marcel Kittel has an extraordinary lead out and he will be eager for revenge after his crash on Stage 5.

With riders like Kittel and Greipel it’s all about who’s team ends up in front when it counts. Kittel has a strong lead out train but Andre Greipel does too. The German Champion can count on support from Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson and if Lotto-Belisol gets the lead, it will be Greipel who will be difficult to pass.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have a lead out train as strong as he used to. Still with Tony Martin to set the pace and Matteo Trentin and Gert Steegmans to lead him out, he showed on Stage 5 that it’s all he needs. Omega Pharma Quickstep were outstanding in the final and no one came close to beating Cavendish on the line. From the helicopter view it seemed like Peter Sagan was able to match Cavendish’ speed but once again Sagan didn’t position himself well. It would have been a close call had Sagan been on Cavendish’ wheel and hopefully we will see them go head to head soon again.

The Jokers

I’ve named Alexander Kristoff as a joker the last couple of years but I doubt he fits that category anymore. The big Norwegian has been on fire this season and don’t be surprised to see him make Top3 again on this stage. Another joker I’ve used before is Danny Van Poppel. The Vacansoleil-DCM sprinter is the youngster rider to take part in the Tour since WWII. Many doubted if Van Poppel was strong enough to be in the mix but he showed on Stage 1 that he is. He took third place in the sprint and I think he will be up there again this time. It’s true many of the top sprinters didn’t contest in that sprint but even with a full peloton I think Danny Van Poppel has what it takes to make another great result. It won’t be easy to beat the big sprinters but I wouldn’t rule out Top5 on a good day.

It’s hard to not pick Mark Cavendish as the big favorite after his - and his team’s - performance on Stage 5. Also, if the race gets blown a part, Omega Pharma Quickstep shouldn’t be one of the teams left behind. They have a big part of their Classic team here and they will be able to take advantage of it. However, the way I see, Argos-Shimano have the best lead out train in the race. If they can take the front - and keep it - with 3 km to go, Marcel Kittel will extremely difficult to pass with Tom Veelers leading him out. If anyone can do it though, it’s Mark Cavendish.

Another joker for the stage is Ramunas Navardauskas. If we end up with echelons, I would imagine Navardauskas to be in the front group. He’s not going to outsprint Mark Cavendish but if some of the big favorites are caught behind, he might be able to do top3.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3: Marcel Kittel

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel / Ramunas Navardauskas

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 6:

Tour de France: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

Despite an undulating profile, this should be a stage for the sprinters. There are four categorized climbs on the menu but except for the first one, they shouldn’t really trouble the sprinters.

The Route

With its 228.5 km this is the longest stage of the Tour so far. Going west towards Marseille, the riders start climbing right away on Côte de Châteauneuf-Grasse. The climb is only 1.4 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.4 %. Many riders will be eager to get away and this is the perfect place to do so.

The two top sprinters of the race Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel are yet to compete in a bunch sprint in this Tour and Omega Pharma Quickstep and Lotto-Belisol will have to control the race. Peter Sagan is also out for revenge after finishing second twice already and his Cannondale team should help out too.

The last categorized climb has its top with just 20 km to go. On Corsica, the late climbs proved to be too much for the sprinters but it shouldn’t be case this time. The 5.7 km towards the top of Côte des Bastides kick up with 3.1 % and Cavendish and especially Greipel should be able to stay in the bunch.

The final 4 km towards the finishing line.

The Finish

According to ASO Côte des Bastides was the last climb worth categorizing on this stage. However, the riders still have to overcome Col de la Gineste. The 7 km towards the top aren’t steep but if some sprinters had troubles on Côte des Bastides, they will have big problems getting back into the peloton in time for the final sprint. The view from the top of Côte des Bastides over the Mediterranean Sea is spectacular and the riders can almost see the finishing line 12.5 km ahead. The descent is much steeper than the ascent of the climb and this should make for a fast finish.

The riders enters Marseille with about 6 km to go and continue on big roads all the way to the line. Coming down Avenue du Prado towards the sea, the riders pass the last km port before turning left on Avenue Pierre Mendès France with just 500 meters to go. It’s not a very difficult corner but it will stretch out the peloton. Therefore, it’s important to be among the first five or six riders in order to win the stage. Like the view from the top of Col de la Gineste, also the final 500 meters are breathtaking with the hills in the background and the Mediterranean Sea on the right side. So far ASO have really spoiled us with post card scenery in this 100^th edition of the Tour de France.

The Favorites

With everybody on 100 %, I would pick Mark Cavendish as the favorite. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Cavendish started out the Tour with bronchitis and even though he’s feeling better, he hasn’t been great so far. Another good candidate for this stage is Peter Sagan. He will have no problems with the climbs but the crash on Stage 1 has weakened him. He barely managed to keep Michal Kwiatkowski behind him on Stage 2 and came up short against Simon Gerrans on Stage 3. Sagan’s team hasn’t been good enough so far and even though it’s hard to bet against him, I don’t see Sagan as the big favorite for this stage.

Instead, my favorite is Andre Greipel. The German Champion came to the Tour in great shape but hasn’t been able to show it yet. He couldn’t keep up with the front group on Stage 2 but he came close to bridge the gap. On Stage 3 he quickly realized it wasn’t going to happen and I think he saved a little energy being dropped early on. Many don’t think Andre Greipel is good on the hills but he’s actually not bad at all. In Tour of Turkey he won Stage 4 despite a long climb near the finish and he has won uphill sprints in the past too. The hills today are not steep at all and Lotto-Belisol showed on the TTT that they are very strong. Both Greipel and Cavendish are behind in the fight for the Green Jersey and they can’t let this opportunity go to waste. Orica-GreenEdge will work hard in order to keep the Yellow Jersey and this should come down to a bunch sprint.

The Jokers

One of the strongest riders so far in this Tour de France has been Juan-Antonio Flecha. He has been attacking almost every day and I would be surprised not to see him try again soon. Vacansoleil-DCM are still without sponsors for next season and the riders are eager to show themselves and help the team get seen on TV. As I’ve said, it won’t be easy for a breakaway to make it on this stage. The sprinters’ teams want control the race and a morning breakaway seems doomed.

The view from the top of Col de la Gineste over the sea.

However, a late attack in the final may be the right choice. Normally I wouldn’t pick Flecha for an uphill attack but he showed on Stage 2 that his legs are great and that he’s climbing just fine. Flecha is fast on the line and should he manage to get away over the top of Col de la Gineste, the peloton will have to work hard in order to catch him. The wind is in favor of the peloton though. The final 12 km take place in a strong head / cross wind and that makes it hard to maintain a gap. Especially the last 2 km on Avenue Pierre Mendès will be extremely hard alone against the pack.

On the topic of jokers, look out for Julien Simon as well.  The French sprinter was furious after Stage 3 when Rojas blocked his way. According to Simon he had the legs to win the stage and he will be eager to demonstrate that in Marseille. His team mate Julien El Fares is another candidate. I’ve already mentioned El Fares earlier in the Tour and this is a stage he has marked in his road book. He comes from the area and his family and friends will be out cheering for him. However, in order for El Fares to succeed he needs to attack from a far. If he’s not up the road already, the Frenchmen will have to work hard for teammate Julien Simon in the final sprint.

Favorite: Andre Greipel

Jokers: Juan-Antonio Flecha / Julien Simon

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 5:

Tour de France: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

We expected chaos, we expected crashes and we expected a bunch sprint. Yet, Stage 1 managed to surprise us. Marcel Kittel took the first Yellow Jersey but it won't be easy for him to keep on Stage 2. It’s a short stage of only 156 km and that means a fast day in the saddle.

The Route

The intermediate sprint is located in Castello Di-Rostino after just 33 km. That means a break most likely won’t get away as early as on Stage 1. The climbs and the finish - more on that later - will make it hard for Mark Cavendish to fight for the win. Therefore, the Manxman needs to win the intermediate sprint in order not to lose terrain in the fight for the Green Jersey.

The first categorized climb starts after 63 km but actually, the road already kicks up 15 km earlier. This is a great place for a breakaway to be established and with three KOM sprints within the next 50 km, many riders will be eager to get away. Euskaltel’s sprinter Juanjo Lobato could try to hang on to the Polka Dot Jersey but I doubt it. The first climb isn’t very steep but the next two both have an average gradient of 6‑7 % and are better suited Lobato’s strong teammates.

There are about 60 km to go from the top of the penultimate climb and after a descent of more than 30 km, there’s only one obstacle left for the riders to overcome before the final.

The Finish

With 13 km to go, the peloton faces Côte du Salario. This little category 3 climb is only 1 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.9 %. The long descent from Col de Vizzavona isn’t very technical and the teams of the pure sprinters will have to push hard in order to come back. I expect most of the sprinters to be in the peloton when Côte du Salario starts. Cannondale and Peter Sagan knows they need to drop Cavendish and Kittel on the climb and they will probably set a high speed early on the stage to make sure Cavendish is already tired reaching the final climb.

The last 10 km of Stage 2 - click for larger view.

The final 10 km takes place alongside the Mediterranean Sea without any difficult corners to tackle. The sprinters dropped on Côte du Salario will have to work hard to come back and even if they manage to, they will have problems again with 2 km to go. Here the road kicks up with about 5 % for 500 meters and if Cannondale and other teams can keep a high speed, I doubt the pure sprinters will make it back.

The Favorites

As you can see, my big favorite is Peter Sagan. He’s not as fast as Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel but on a route like this one, he’s the best. Sagan has no problems overcoming the climbs and if Cavendish isn’t in the bunch, this is a day Sagan can’t afford to miss out. Sagan not only aims to win the Green Jersey again this year, he also wants to wear the Yellow Jersey. The Cannondale team is built up around him with a special focus on the team time trial to keep Peter Sagan in yellow should Stage 2 and 3 go as planned. Therefore, they won’t let a break get too far away. King Sagan wants the Yellow Jersey and Cannondale will do whatever they can to make it happen. The only question is how Sagan's body will respond after his crash on Stage 1. Sagan went down hard and you know it's serious when he doesn't do any stunts crossing the finishing in a small group. The Slovakian Wonderboy will be eager to take revenge and he really needs a good place on this stage if he wants to wear the Yellow Jersey after Stage 3.

One of the few riders who can come close to Peter Sagan is John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano is not all about Marcel Kittel, they also have Degenkolb who won five (!) stages in last year’s Vuelta España. I doubt Kittel can get over the climbs - despite yellow wings - near the front but Degenkolb shouldn't have problems. The strong German went head-to-head with Peter Sagan in Tour de Suisse recently but didn’t really have the speed to pass him in the final. Still, the Tour de France is a different thing and with a long straight out sprint, Degenkolb may have a chance.

It wouldn’t be fair not to mention Matt Goss on a stage like this one. The Australian sprinter won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this year against Sagan, Greipel and Cavendish. Again, it’s important to note the difference between the Italian one-week stage race and Tour de France. The route on Stage 2 favors Matt Goss compared to the pure sprinters and I’m sure GreenEdge will try to set him up again. Personally, I doubt he can beat Peter Sagan but with a perfect leadout from Daryl Impey, it’s definitely not impossible. Another thing is that Daryl Impey finished 11th on Stage 1. That means that if GreenEdge can set him up for a top place - in front of the 10 other riders form Stage 1 - Impey could end up in yellow! That should give the Australian team something to think about...

The Jokers

I could use the joker section to name a few good riders for a breakaway but I honestly can’t see a break making it on this stage. This is a golden opportunity for riders like Sagan and Goss (both with two dedicated teams) to get rid of Cavendish and the others before the final sprint and they need to control the race. Instead, I’d like to point out Tony Gallopin. The young Frenchman is in great shape right now and he was very close in the French Nationals last week when he took the bronze medal. Gallopin is very fast on the line in a reduced group and he shouldn’t have any problems overcoming the climbs. Unfortunately Tony Gallopin also went down in the big crash on Stage 1. He didn't break anything but reports pain in his right arm, back and right hip. If he can cope with the pain this is a good opportunity for him but if not let's look to other jokers.

First one is the new French Champion, Arthur Vichot. He was outstanding in the French Nationals keeping Gallopin and Chavanel behind him and he's also very fast in a reduced group. Nacer Bouhanni is FDJ’s designated sprinter but if he can’t keep up on the hills, I would expect FDJ to try setting up Vichot for the sprint.

Another one who should find this stage appealing is Francesco Gavazzi. While teammates Brajkovic, Lutsenko and Murayev all crashed, Gavazzi somehow managed to stay upright. The Italian rider is fast on the line and he has no problems with these kind of climbs. Gavazzi has been very consistent in Top5 this year and if everything works out for him, he could take his first win of the season in Ajaccio.

Also, look out for Samuel Dumoulin. The little French sprinter took 6th place on Stage 1 and with another top performance; he could very well end up in the yellow jersey after the stage.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Tony Gallopin / Arhur Vichot / Francesco Gavazzi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 2:

Tour de France: Stage 1 Preview & Favorites

This is only the third time since 1967 that the Tour starts with a regular stage. On the two former occasions the stage was made for a puncheur (Valverde & Gilbert won) but this time it’s made for the sprinters.

Looking at the start list, it’s clear that we have [almost] all the best sprinters in the world in the race this year. Only Démare, Bos and Guardini are missing. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for many of the riders to take the Yellow Jersey in the Tour de France and we can expect a very nervous sprint. Still, I only see three riders with a solid chance of winning in Bastia.

The Route

Some say there aren’t many flat kilometers on Corsic - which is true - but there is no doubt that these 213 km will end in a sprint. There is a category 4 climb placed after just 45.5 km and that being the only climb of the day, many teams will be eager to win the first KOM jersey of the Tour. I would imagine a breakaway of 4-5 riders getting away before the climb and they should be able to get a good lead too. There are many strong sprinter teams in the race and bringing back the break in time shouldn’t be a problem. The intermediate sprint is located in San-Giulliano after 150 km. Despite a breakaway up front, the sprinters targeting the green jersey will have to show their hand and go head to head for the final points. There are still 63 km to go after the sprint so they have time to recover before the final battle.

The final 6 km towards the finishing line.

The Final

After turning right with about 5.3 km to go, it’s straight out for 3.3 km until the riders reach a roundabout with 2 km to go. This 180° turn will really stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point already. The last 2 km are straight out with only a few soft bends and the final 500 meters are slightly downhill. This means it will be a very fast sprint and therefore good for the big power sprinters like Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel. It will also be a very nervous sprint and it won’t be easy for the two Germans to keep their leadout trains in order.

The Favorites

Andre Greipel started out last year’s Tour de France in a terrific way with two wins and two second places in the first four mass sprints. Greipel has shown same strength so far this year and his leadout train is only getting better. With Marcel Sieberg to set the pace and Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson to lead him out, Greipel only has to follow one wheel the last 10 km of the stage. While many of the others sprinters are fighting for the right wheel, Greipel knows Henderson will deliver him in a perfect way. He has done so all year long and there is nothing that suggest it will change now. Andre Greipel comes to the Tour fresh of an impressive win in the German National Championship and he will be eager to expand the yellow color on his new shirt.

One of Greipel’s biggest rivals in the sprint this Tour de France is his fellow countryman Marcel Kittel. Greipel may have a strong leadout train, but I think Kittel has the best one. Argos-Shimano have been trying to perfect what they call “the best leadout train in the world” for three years now. It has been a long way and it has gone wrong many times but I think they will show their power in this Tour. With Tom Dumoulin, Simon Geschke, Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort and John Degenkolb (5x stage winner in the Vuelta last year), Marcel Kittel can’t ask for more. Kittel has been very strong in the mass sprints the last two months and he recently beat Greipel and Cavendish on Stage 3 of Ster ZLM. Last year a stomach virus ruined his Tour de France and now he’s out for revenge. He missed out in the German Nationals last weekend but back with his normal leadout train, I think he will be very difficult to beat.

The only rider I see with a chance of beating Greipel and Kittel is Mark Cavendish; another rider who just won his national road race championship. In the past, Cavendish seemed to have a “Stage 1”-complex but ever since he won the first sprint stage of Giro d’Italia last year, he has been “cured”. Cavendish has already been wearing many different leader’s jerseys in his career but he is yet to wear the Tour’s yellow colors. In the Giro this year he won Stage 1 despite a sprint that went anything but smooth for him. The bunch sprint competition in the Tour is way stronger than in the Giro but I still think Cavendish will win this first stage. When he put his mind to something, he very - very - rarely misses out. “This is the first chance for a sprinter [to win the opening stage] since the 60’s and I need to grab this opportunity with both hands”, he recently said. Both Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel have a better leadout train than Cavendish but none of them can match he Manxman’s kick in the final. For many sprinters it’s impossible to pass Greipel and Kittel in a high speed leadout but Cavendish has done before and I think he will do it again.

The joker

It’s difficult to pick a joker with so many strong sprinters but I would like to point out Juanjo Lobato from Euskaltel. The Spanish sprinter may not be well known on the international scene - yet - but make no mistakes; he’s very fast. This is the first season for Lobato on the World Tour and after a difficult start, he’s now showing great shape and matching results. He came close to the stage win a couple of times in Bayern Rundfahrt last month and he also made Top3 on the first stage of Tour de Luxembourg two weeks ago. Like the rest of the Euskaltel team, Juanjo Lobato had a horrible start to the Tour de France preparation with the death of Rufino Murguíal - the team’s masseur. Euskaltel haven’t had a good season so far and they desperately need positive experiences in this year’s Tour. I doubt Lobato can win against the other top sprinters but I expect him to show Euskaltel's name in the Top10.

Greipel, Kittel and Cavendish are all on the same level as I see it right now but having to pick only one, I’ll say Cavendish takes his first Yellow Jersey in the Tour de France.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Joker: Juanjo Lobato

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 1:

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 3 Preview

Mark Cavendish’ complained about his teammates after the second stage. He had the kick, but no help. Andre Greipel had a brilliant team, but didn’t have the legs despite being in a perfect position in the final. The big showndown between Cavendish and Greipel never came and I’m not sure we will see it on this stage either.

The 190 km from Indicatore to Narni Scalo may look like a sure thing for the sprinters, but the last 70 km have the riders climb several small, steep hills. Among these Todi with an average gradient of 12,2%. The last hilly section of the stage ends with 3 km to go. 800 meters of 4,8% serve as the last chance for opportunistic riders to attack but most likely this will end in a sprint. The heavy sprinters will probably have difficulties staying up front but those aiming at Milano - San Remo need to show they can deal with the hills.

The last 3 km are a bit tricky with a few difficult turns, especially a right bend with about 1500 km to go but the last 500 meters are straightforward on a 7 meters wide asphalted roadway. The weather forecast shows another rainy day for the riders and with many descents on last part of the route, it could easily turn into another chaos. Everybody want to stay up front – both the GC riders and the sprinters - and it will only take a single rider crashing to turn it all upside-down.  

Final circuit towards the finishing line in Narni Scalo.
Click for larger view.

The way I see it, this is a great stage for Peter Sagan. As predicted yesterday, he didn’t have the necessary power to sprint for the win on stage 2 but with the many small hills and tricky finish, I think he will have the upper hand against Greipel and Cavendish on stage 3. Matt Goss produced a great sprint when he won in Indicatore and he shouldn’t have problems staying up front either this time. I doubt Lotto-Belisol will be able to provide a strong leadout train for Greipel in this type of finish so it could very well end up being every sprinter for himself.

The favorites want to save as much energy as possible before the big mountain stage the next day, but they won’t let anybody sneak away in the finish either. Vincenzo Nibali and Rinaldo Nocentini have both been showing great shape lately with many attacks in their previous races but they should both be waiting for tomorrow. Instead I’ll pick Moreno Moser as my joker. His conditions is already very good and with everybody looking at Sagan, Moser could try to get away in the final. Not as far out as in Strade Bianche but probably in the last 3-4 kilometers.  Moreno Moser has his eyes on the GC too and it may be foolish to waste energy with a late attack, but on the other hand; he is one of few riders able to finish it off and a stage win sure is better than Top20 overall.

This may be the first time I’ve ever picked two guys from the same team as winner and joker, but I guess there is a first time for everything...

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 2 Preview

Omega Pharma Quickstep got the best possible start when they won the opening team time trial and placed Mark Cavendish in the blue leader’s jersey. Now it’s time for the season’s first showdown between Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

Depending on how stage 3 evolves this could be the only stage for the pure sprinters in this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico and naturally, no one wants to miss out. The stage covers 232 km from San Vincenzo to Indicatore and has a very tricky finish. With 1200 meters to go the peloton crosses a railroad overpass while turning left into a roundabout. The weather forecast shows light rain all day long and with many top sprinters in the race - plus GC contenders who want to stay up front - it will almost be a miracle if nobody goes down in that corner. Luckily the riders will have a chance to study the finish as the final circuit of 12,4 km will done five times.

As stated in the beginning, this is the long-awaited dual between Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. It’s the first time this season the two super stars are going up against each other mano-a-mano and it’s almost impossible to pick a winner. Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel have been phenomenal so far this season with an outstanding leadout train, but Mark Cavendish showed in Tour of Qatar that he doesn’t need a leadout to win.

Lotto-Belisol probably won’t have much to say in the overall classification as Jelle Vanendert already is one minute down after the TTT, and without any riders to win the medium stages in this race, Andre Greipel is their only hope. So far, Lotto-Belisol’s leadout train has been impeccable and I don’t see why that should change now. Yes, there are many talented sprinters at the starting line but none of them has a leadout train like Greipel do. With Kaisen, Sieberg, Hansen, Roelandts, Reynes and Henderson to lead him out, Andre Greipel simply can get it any better.

The only one with a kick powerful enough to get a jump on Greipel is Mark Cavendish. No other sprinter can match Cavendish’ kick in the final 200 meters and in the blue leader’s jersey, Cavendish will be eager to show who the best sprinter in the world is. Personally, I think Andre Greipel will win this stage, but if Mark Cavendish manages to position himself on Greipel’s wheel, he might have a chance to surprise the German Gorilla with an early kick.

The way I see the rest of the field are only fighting for the 3^rd place on this stage. Of course, both Greipel and Cavendish can get it wrong, but with only one big chance to win a stage, none of them can afford to miss this opportunity. And yes, Peter Sagan is here too, but even though he seems to be flying these days, I don’t see him beating Greipel nor Cavendish in a pancake flat finish. Maybe he can use his amazing bike handling skills in the rainy conditions to gain some positions in the final, but outsprinting the two big favorites? I doubt it…

It makes it difficult to pick a joker with so many strong sprinters in the race, but I would like to point out Radioshack’s sprinter, Giacomo Nizzolo. The young Italian has started out this season very well but is still without a stage win. He was beaten by Greipel in Tour Med and by Bos in Volta Algarve but last week he won the sprint behind the winning break in G.P. Camaiore. Nizzolo can count on excellent support from Danilo Hondo - who used to leadout Petacchi in the mass sprints - and even though Hondo isn’t much of a leadout anymore, nobody knows their way around the front in the final kilometers like the German veteran. I think Giacomo Nizzolo will have an excellent season this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the podium on stage 2.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Giacomo Nizzolo           

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.