Tour de France: Stage 17 ITT Preview & Favorites

Everything went as expected on stage 16. A breakaway made it all the way and the GC riders gave us a good show on the final climb and descent. Despite the late attacks, the overall contenders didn’t burn too much energy and they will now have to use everything they have got left during one of the hardest time trials in recent Tour de France history.

The Route

This is another short time trial of only 32 km but that doesn’t make it easy, not at all! The riders face Côte de Puy-Sanières right from the beginning. This category 2 climb is 6.4 km long and has an average gradient of 6 %. It starts out with 5 % in the beginning and has parts of 9 % in the middle. The first time check is at the top of the climb and the last kilometers of 7 % will make it difficult to keep a steady rhythm. The descent is very technical and riders with good bike handling skills can really take back some time on his part.  Coming down from Côte de Puy-Sanières, the riders take on the next climb right away. The 6.9 km towards the top of Côte de Réallon have an average gradient of 6.3 % and it’s a lot easier to find into a good rhythm here. From the top of Côte de Réallon there are 12 km to go.

The Finish

The descent from Côte de Réallon is not as technical as the one from Côte de Puy-Sanières but after reaching the top and the second time check it actually takes a couple of kilometers before the riders starts on the downhill part. The final descent towards the line is very fast the riders should be able to reach a speed of about 80 km/h. The last kilometer is flat and it will be interesting to see if some of the heavier riders have been able to take back time on after the two climbs.

The Favorite

There is no “s” on Favorite this time since there is just one rider to beat if you want to win this stage. Only a strong headwind in the final kilometers kept Chris Froome from beating Tony Martin in the flat time trial and with two climbs on the profile, nobody will get even close to Froome. He’s the best rider uphill right now and even though some say he has difficulties on the descent, it’s not that bad. The only reason why he got off the bike on stage 16 was that Alberto Contador crashed in front of him. Actually, Froome did very well on the descent and he shouldn’t have bigger problems than other riders on this stage. Chris Froome knows he will be under attack in the Alps and he needs to distance himself from his rivals as much as possible before that. I think Froome will win this stage with at least one minute down to number two, probably even two minutes. The way I see it, it’s only the weather that can stop Chris Froome from destroying the peloton on this stage. As of Tuesday evening, there is 40 % chance of rain when Chris Froome takes the start and should it rain; the descents will be very difficult. In that case, look to riders down the GC starting early like national champions Lieuwe Westra and Jonathan Castroviejo.

The Jokers

After his outstanding time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco, Nairo Quintana looks like an interesting rider for this stage. He’s fighting with Michal Kwiatkowski for the white jersey and he will need a very a good day in order to beat the Pole against the clock. Both are among the outsiders for a Top3 place and so is Bauke Mollema. The Flying Dutchman has never been better and he’s done very well in the time trials the last couple of years. He finished 11^th in the flat time trial to Mont Saint Michel and in Tour de Suisse he took 3^rd place in the final uphill time trial and made the overall podium. Mollema wasn’t great on Mont Ventoux and if he wants to keep his podium place, he needs another strong performance against the clock before the Alps.

Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger will most likely fight for a top3 place on this stage as well but I doubt the World Champion, Tony Martin will be near the top. He may do Top5 on a good day but I would be very surprised to see him near Chris Froome this time.

Favorite: Chris Froome

Jokers: Bauke Mollema / Jonathan Castroviejo

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv and click here to see the starting order.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 17:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

After eight tough stages, it’s now time to settle the overall classification. Tour de Suisse often ends with a time trial but never one like this.

Despite the distance of just 26.8 km, the riders are in for a day full of pain. The profile is extremely brutal with a final section of 10.3 km uphill with an average gradient of 9 %. The first 16.5 km are flat so we can expect the riders to start out on a time trial bike and then change to a road bike before the climb starts.

The first time check comes at the end of the flat part. This means that the fastest riders at this point not necessarily will be the fastest in the end.  Starting on the climb, the first 5.4 km have an average of 8.5 % before reaching the second time check. From here, there are 4.9 km to the finishing line and the average gradient of 9.5 % will make for a very hard finish.

Tour of California had a similar time trial this year ending with a steep climb. Many riders decided to change bike at the beginning of the climb but not Tejay van Garderen who won the stage. In California the climb was only 2.6 km though, so we should expect even van Garderen to make a bike change this time.

The young American is also the big favorite for this stage. He decided to take his own change on Stage 7 and not wait for Mathias Frank. Overall, Tejay van Garderen is now 1:17 min after his teammate in yellow and he still has a change of winning Tour de Suisse or at least make podium. It won’t be easy to take a minute on Rui Costa but if anyone in this race can do it, it’s Tejay Van Garderen.

The final 3 km of the stage. Very steep. 

Fabian Cancellara will be eager to take revenge from the opening time trial. The change of wind most likely cost him the stage win but I doubt he will be among the best this time. Cancellara will probably set best time at the first check point but 10.3 km with 9 % is not his terrain. Not even against the clock.

Instead, we should look to riders like Simon Spilak, Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jean-Christophe Peraud. Brajkovic has been getting better and better during the race and he seems to be ready for the Tour soon. The Slovenian rider has always been good against the clock and I think he will test himself and do very well in this time trial. Jean-Christophe Peraud is Ag2r’s designated Tour de France captain and I also see him getting stronger every day. In Paris-Nice earlier this year, Peraud distanced Tejay van Garderen with 20 seconds on the final uphill time trial. The American is clearly stronger right now but it shows that Peraud can be among the bests against the clock.

Another strong candidate for the win is Cameron Meyer. He won the opening time trial but many will say it was because the wind changed. Meyer is not a pure climber but he’s been very solid in the mountains and sits 8^th overall before the stage. I think the Australian will be eager to show that he can also win without a change of weather and I expect him to make podium on the stage. Not in the overall classification though.

My joker is Bauke Mollema. Many don’t see Mollema as strong time trialist but he’s actually not bad at all. The course favors him with the long and steep climb and if he can minimize his time loss on the flat part, he should be able to fight for the overall win. It won’t be easy to beat Rui Costa with 34 seconds but don’t forget Mollema’s time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco last year. On a hilly and very difficult course, Mollema took second place after Samuel Sanchez, beating World Champion Tony Martin in the process. I also expect Thibaut Pinot to do well. He will lose time ont the flat part but like Mollema, it shouldn't be much more than he can take back on the climb. 

Rui Costa is right now the big favorite to win Tour de Suisse for the second year in a row. It’s more or less his race to lose and it will be interesting to see how the Portuguese copes with that pressure. Few - except for the Swiss fans - expect Mathias Frank to keep Rui Costa behind him and I think that plays in Frank’s favor. Despite starting the stage in yellow, he’s still the underdog. It’s difficult to predict the outcome of a time trial like this one but I think it will end with Rui Costa winning overall. BMC should be able to put at least one rider on the final podium but who will it be?

Favorite: Tejay van Garderen

Jokers: Bauke Mollema & Jean-Christophe Peraud

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.