Tour de Suisse: Stage 1 Preview & Favorites

The last four years this race has started out with a short time trial and this year is no difference. The venue has changed from Lugano to Quinto but the distance is more or less the same. This 8.1 km time trial isn’t as hilly as the usually one in Lugano and this will favor the specialists.

The first 6 km are flat with only a few corners but the last 2 km include 300 meters of 7% before the descent and the last flat km towards the line.

It’s a good course for Fabian Cancellara but his shape is uncertain at the moment. He won’t be doing the Tour de France this year and therefore he doesn’t need to be in tip-top condition right now. Still, this is his home race and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to take the first yellow jersey in Quinto. Last year Peter Sagan beat Cancellara in the opening prologue and naturally, the Slovakian wonderboy must be named among the contenders for the stage win.

Sagan was great in Tour of California last month where he won two stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins three or four stages in Tour de Suisse again this year. Last year’s prologue favored him with the climb in the middle and even though it's hard to bet against him, I don’t think he will win this stage. Instead look to teammate Moreno Moser. The young Italian was third last year and has high hopes for this stage. Moser will be working hard for Sagan in the coming stages. A win in the opening stage will definitely be good for his moral.

Another strong contender for the win is Alex Rasmussen. The strong Dane won Stage 1 of Bayern-Rundfahrt a couple of weeks ago and seems to be back in good shape after his suspension. This kind of time trials are perfect for Rasmussen and on a good day, he’s fighting for the stage win.

If you are looking for an outsider try Simon Geschke or Cameron Meyer. Geschke ended 5^th overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt after a strong performance in the long time trial and actually a short one should suit the German even better. Cameron Meyer is one of my jokers for the overall classification and he’s always good against the clock. I think this time trial suits him very well and starting early his time will probably stand as one of the best for a very long time.

You can see the starting order for the time trial here.

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6 Preview

Chris Froome is the new race leader and it will require something extra from the other favorites to rip the blue jersey of his shoulders. On paper, this may not look like a difficult stage, but I can assure you it is. The two loops of 90 km and one of 28 km around Porto Sant'Elpidio take the riders on a real rollercoaster ride. It’s up and down all day and when it’s up, it’s steep! The climbs aren’t very long but they all have gradients of 10% all the way up to 27%.

Team Sky say they are expecting attacks from everyone on this stage and I would be surprised if not. It will be extremely difficult - even for Team Sky - to control the peloton on these steep hills and the technical descents and narrow roads provide excellent opportunities for riders to attack. The last loop of 28 km includes two small and steep climbs with the top of the last one just 10 km from the line. It’s followed by a very technical descent and only the last 4 km towards the line are really flat. There is a tricky left-right curve with about 1800 meters to go before the final 1500 meters straight out on 7,5 meters wide road.

The Santa Lucia climb is the last
struggle before the finishing line.

I think Team Sky would be happy to let a break get away in the morning and stay away too. Froome doesn’t want any of his competitors to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line so if a break could fight it out between them, Sky would be happy. Still, that doesn’t mean the favorites won’t give a go - especially on the last loop. Sant'Elpidio a Mare is 6,3 km in total - including a 1,5 km descent in the middle - but the last 400 meters have an average gradient of 20% - last 50 meters up to 27%. There is only 6 km from the top of Sant'Elpidio a Mare to the next climb, Santa Lucia, starts. The climb itself is only 1,5 km but has an average gradient of 8,2% and 16% towards the top.

Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali both need to take back 20 seconds on Chris Froome and you can be sure they both want to try on these climbs. Nibali is one of the best riders on the downhill sections and even if he doesn’t manage to drop Froome uphill, he will probably try again downhill.

Astana and Saxo-Tinkoff would like to keep this together and fight for the stage win and the bonus seconds, but it won’t be easy. It’s the last chance for most of the riders to get a result and the expected rain won’t help controlling it either. Strong riders with a fast finish like Tom-Jelte Slagter, Eros Capecchi, Giovanni Visconti, Moreno Moser, Lars Boom and Greg Van Avermaet are all out of the GC and I would expect a couple of these to make it into a winning break. And don’t forget Peter Sagan. He doesn’t seem to be 100% again after his sickness but he’s also a rider capable of winning even when he’s just on 80 or 90%.

I’ve already picked Moreno Moser as my joker twice during this TIrreno-Adriatico and I’ll give him one last chance. You can’t really talk about a favorite for a stage like this one, but of course if Peter Sagan is the man to beat, should he be in the front group in the final. Sunday Tom-Jelte Slagter had to let go of his overall lead in the World Tour standing and I think he is eager to take it back from Richie Porte. He is fast on the line and good on these kind of hills too. Bauke Mollema showed the way for Blanco when he took second place after Purito in Chieti and Slagter could top that one in Porto Sant'Elpidio.

And no; I don’t think the sprinters will be able to stay in front when the GC is this close and the climbs are this steep.

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter & Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 5 Preview

Team Sky are in a league of their own. Especially with a strong head wind on the climbs. They seem unbeatable this year on mountain top finishes, so if you want to get them, you need a powerful kick and some steep percentages. Luckily for the spectators, that is exactly what we will see on this stage. The steep finish in Chieti has quickly turned into a classic Tirreno finish and it will be difficult for Team Sky to control the pack with gradients up to 19%.

Race leader Michal Kwiatkowski continues to perform on a high level this year and if the other favorites want to fight for the overall win, they need to drop him in Chieti. Kwiatkowski is very strong against the clock but on the steep parts, he has his limitations. 

Peter Sagan won this stage last year but it won’t be easy to repeat that win this time. The race organizers have made the finish even more demanding with the inclusion of Passo Lanciano (11.3 km at 8,6%) just 40 km from the line.  Sagan is great on the descents but if Team Sky set a furious pace uphill like on Prati di Tivo, he won’t be in the mix.

Final steep kilometers in Chieti.
Click for larger view.

The last 7 km see the riders tackle two steep parts separated by a 2,5 km descent. Gradients of 19% on the final hill provide an excellent chance for explosive riders to get a gap before the last, tricky, and flat kilometer towards the line. I know Purito didn’t live up to the expectations on Prati di Tivo, but I won’t hesitate picking him as my favorite again. Purito had problems on Prati di Tivo last year too and if he really is in better shape this year - as he states – he’ll win this stage.

The steep part ends with one kilometer to go and this is a great time to counter if the front group stops a little. Last year Vincenzo Nibali got away on the final 500 meters, but was overtaken by teammate Peter Sagan. Not a very wise tactical decision by Sagan who had to apologize to Nibali afterwards. Nibali wants revenge and if Purito doesn’t take this stage, I think Nibali is the best pick. He knows the final very well and he will be extremely difficult to catch if he manages to put in a late attack like last year.

Originally, I would have picked Mauro Santambrogio as joker for this stage but after his amazing performance on Prati di Tivo, I guess he can’t really be seen as a ‘joker’ anymroe. Same goes for Wout Poels who showed to be back on a great level after his horrible crash in the Tour last year. I think both will be up there in the final, but none of them really fit the joker category. Instead I’ll say Moreno Moser. The young Italian came to Tirreno-Adriatico aiming at the GC, but couldn’t keep up on Prati di Tivo. Moser now has to look for stage wins and stage 5 and 6 seems like good options for him. If he manages to stay near the front on the last steep part, he could profit from an strong attack just as it evens out with one kilometer to go. It won’t be easy, but hey; that’s why it’s called a joker.

One last thing. If the favorites don’t attack on Passo Lanciano and Peter Sagan stays in front over this climb, he’ll most likely end up winning the stage. I hope Nibali and Contador will try something far out, but in case they don’t, put your money on the Slovakian wonder boy. I can only pick one winner and even though all three (Purito, Nibali and Sagan) look good to me, I have to stick with my original idea and say Purito.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 3 Preview

Mark Cavendish’ complained about his teammates after the second stage. He had the kick, but no help. Andre Greipel had a brilliant team, but didn’t have the legs despite being in a perfect position in the final. The big showndown between Cavendish and Greipel never came and I’m not sure we will see it on this stage either.

The 190 km from Indicatore to Narni Scalo may look like a sure thing for the sprinters, but the last 70 km have the riders climb several small, steep hills. Among these Todi with an average gradient of 12,2%. The last hilly section of the stage ends with 3 km to go. 800 meters of 4,8% serve as the last chance for opportunistic riders to attack but most likely this will end in a sprint. The heavy sprinters will probably have difficulties staying up front but those aiming at Milano - San Remo need to show they can deal with the hills.

The last 3 km are a bit tricky with a few difficult turns, especially a right bend with about 1500 km to go but the last 500 meters are straightforward on a 7 meters wide asphalted roadway. The weather forecast shows another rainy day for the riders and with many descents on last part of the route, it could easily turn into another chaos. Everybody want to stay up front – both the GC riders and the sprinters - and it will only take a single rider crashing to turn it all upside-down.  

Final circuit towards the finishing line in Narni Scalo.
Click for larger view.

The way I see it, this is a great stage for Peter Sagan. As predicted yesterday, he didn’t have the necessary power to sprint for the win on stage 2 but with the many small hills and tricky finish, I think he will have the upper hand against Greipel and Cavendish on stage 3. Matt Goss produced a great sprint when he won in Indicatore and he shouldn’t have problems staying up front either this time. I doubt Lotto-Belisol will be able to provide a strong leadout train for Greipel in this type of finish so it could very well end up being every sprinter for himself.

The favorites want to save as much energy as possible before the big mountain stage the next day, but they won’t let anybody sneak away in the finish either. Vincenzo Nibali and Rinaldo Nocentini have both been showing great shape lately with many attacks in their previous races but they should both be waiting for tomorrow. Instead I’ll pick Moreno Moser as my joker. His conditions is already very good and with everybody looking at Sagan, Moser could try to get away in the final. Not as far out as in Strade Bianche but probably in the last 3-4 kilometers.  Moreno Moser has his eyes on the GC too and it may be foolish to waste energy with a late attack, but on the other hand; he is one of few riders able to finish it off and a stage win sure is better than Top20 overall.

This may be the first time I’ve ever picked two guys from the same team as winner and joker, but I guess there is a first time for everything...

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

World Champions Preview - Road Race

Ever since this course was revealed, one rider has been everybody’s big time favorite; Philippe Gilbert. He was unbeatable last season and with the finishing line like just a few kilometers after Cauberg, I too couldn’t really see any other rider taking the rainbow jersey. That was last year though. This season Gilbert has struggled to perform and if it hadn’t been for his two stage wins in Vuelta España I think many would have only counted Gilbert as a dark horse for this Sunday. Now he’s suddenly the big favorite again and even though I must admit it’s hard not to take him as my winner pick, I honestly see a handful of riders able to challenge him.

The fact that the finish line is located 1,7 km after the top of Cauberg means that riders like Peter Sagan, Simon Gerrans and Alejandro Valverde will have a good chance of coming back if Gilbert should manage to drop them. And yes, I think it all will come down to Cauberg. The Belgian team and the Spanish team are simply too strong and with a course like this one they can’t afford not to work hard in order to keep it together in the end. Furthermore they will have Slovakia (6 riders) and probably Australia (9 riders) to help out as well. Simon Gerrans may not want to go up mano a mano with Gilbert and Sagan but he sure doesn’t want to attack 50 kilometers out either. He has been showing great shape lately and Australia need to make sure he gets delivered in a perfect position. This means we have at least four teams to control the peloton and even though opportunistic riders like Thomas Voeckler, Vincenzo Nibali and Alexander Kolobnev want to have a say too, I think this World Champion (like last year) will be won by one of the big favorites.

For quite some time I’ve been naming Alejandro Valverde as my personal favorite for the rainbow jersey and I won’t change that. Despite a hard Tour de France it seems like Valverde came out of the Vuelta as one of the strongest riders and even though Spain have 9 guys who can win this race, I think it will be a mistake not to aim to win with Valverde. Oscar Freire, Dani Moreno, Samuel Sanchez and Purito are all excellent riders for this type of course but in a sprint right after Cauberg none of them can match Valverde’s finish - not even Freire! Alejandro Valverde has a very rare killer instinct when he sees the finish line, like Danilo Di Luca, and if he’s in the front when the approaching Cauberg for the last time, I think  he will be more than difficult to beat. The way I see it, this will be a fight between Valverde, Gilbert and Sagan - probably in that order too as Sagan doesn’t seem as fast right now as earlier this year.

As always I have a couple of jokers too and this being the World Champions one of these is Matti Breschel. I’m not just been patriotic, I actually think Matti has a solid chance of another medal. He should have won in Australia two years ago and after two years full of bad luck it’s now time to take revenge. He showed in Vuelta a Burgos that his shape is good when he won Stage 3 and again in the Vuelta when he tried to anticipate Gilbert’s winning move in La Lastrilla. According to himself he’s not among the favorites and that’s true. He’s not a favorite, but he is one of the outsiders. Matti Breschel is an excellent championship rider who always performs on the big scenes and if he has one of his great days he should do top10 for sure and why not podium again…

Another joker is Moreno Moser. The young Italian has been outstanding in this first year as professional with many great wins and together with Vincenzo Nibali and Oscar Gatto, Moser is probably the best Italian pick for a medal. For the first time in many years the Italian team isn’t build around one rider and that means Azzurri will have to attack, attack and attack if they want to win. Nibali has never been afraid of attacking from afar and even though he often lack some tactical sense you’ve got to admire his way of riding. Like Nibali, Moreno Moser also knows how to take the peloton by surprise. Despite his young age I would say we already know his signature move - a late attack within the final kilometers. Moser has an outstanding engine and if he manages to get up over Cauberg among the first 10-20 riders, I will say it’s almost certain he will try with a solo move on the last 1,7 kilometers. Portuguese Rui Costa is also a rider to look out for this Sunday. Same goes for Michael Albasini and Tour of Britain winner Jonathan Tiernan-Locke.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Matti Breschel & Moreno Moser

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During the Vuelta España I had a daily winner pick duel with Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles. Surprisingly enough it all ended in a draw after 21 stages, so to settle the score I'll go head-2-head against Felix at the World Champions. You have my winner pick and two jokers already, here are his:

Winner pick: Philippe Gilbert

Joker: Simon Gerrans & Rui Costa

Explanation: The Belgian is coming into form after a terrible season. Two Vuelta stage wins has turned things round for Gilbert, who won the Amstel Gold Race in successive years over these roads. He knows what it's like to win on the Cauberg, plus he has the sprint to take it after the flat 1.7km run over the summit. Peter Sagan has been quiet recently, suggesting his best form came back during his hat-trick of wins during the Tour, while Alejandro Valverde will be exhausted from his final-week exertions during the Vuelta. The flat run-in won't help the Spaniard either. That said, if Sagan is in touch with the leaders over the top of the 10th and final ascent of the Cauberg, then he'll be near-impossible to beat. For my joker, I was tempted by Rui Costa, the in-form Portuguese, and also by Thomas Voeckler, who has the whole French squad behind him on what seems to be a tailor-made course. But I'll go for Simon Gerrans instead. The Australian has ordered his season with the Worlds in mind; he's in form after his win in Quebec and he's podiumed in the Amstel Gold before. If anyone can cause an upset, it's Gerrans.

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