Vuelta a España: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

Joaquim ’Purito’ Rodriguez finally took his first stage win of this year’s Vuelta on stage 19. Katusha worked in front of the peloton all day long and with one kilometer to go, Purito dropped the rest of the favorites. Vincenzo Nibali couldn’t keep up with Horner on the final meters and Chris Horner is now leading the race with three seconds.

Before the Vuelta started, we could only hope for a fight this close and Angliru will now determine who’s going to win this bike race. Chris Horner has been the best climber so far and usually the best climber wins on Angliru. In the past, the big favorites have won here and I doubt that will change this time. The bonus seconds on the line can prove to be very important and the prestige alone of winning on Angliru should mean we won’t see the peloton let the early break get too far away.

It’s a short stage of only 142.2 km but it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. Even though the chances of a breakaway making it aren’t great, half the peloton will try to make it into that break anyway. It’s the last chance before Madrid to win a stage and strong teams like Movistar, Lampre and Euskaltel are still winless in this Vuelta. Except for the opening team time trial Astana hasn’t won anything either yet and without having to control the race, we may see them send a good climber up the road. If not to win the stage, then at least to help Nibali on the final climb.              

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before taking on Alto de l’Angliru and all three of them are very steep. The first one, Alto de la Cabruñana, is the easiest one. It comes after 40 km and has an average gradient of 6.6 %. From the top, there are only 30 km to Alto de Tenebredo starts. This climb is only 3.4 km long but it has an average gradient of over 10 %! The GC favorites won’t be dropped here but the steep gradients will hurt their legs before the final two climbs of the day.

Alto de l'Angliru. 12.2 km / avg. 10.2 %

With 26.6 km to go, it’s time to climb Alto del Cordal. This is a category 1 climb and the 5.3 km towards the top has an average gradient of 9.6 %. If Alejandro Valverde or Joaquim Purito are feeling exceptional well, we may see Movistar and Katusha set a high pace on Cordal in order to tire out their rivals. There won’t be many riders left in the peloton when reaching the top and those who are dropped won’t see the front of the peloton again today. After the fast decent, the riders start on Angliru right away. This climb is said to be the hardest one ever done in a bike race and its 12.2 km with an average of 10.2 % confirm that.

This is only the 6^th time a stage finishes on Angliru and looking at some of the past winners, it’s clear this is one for the pure climbers. Jimenez, Simoni, Heras and Contador were all best in the world when they won here. Juanjo Cobo was the last winner on Angliru (in 2011). That year the Vuelta also had a stage finish on Peña Cabarga. Last Thursday Chris Horner sat a new record on the climb. He was more than 40 seconds faster than Cobo was in 2011.

Naturally, Chris Horner is the big favorite to win this stage. However, Vincenzo Nibali has a point when he says the climb suits the Italian better than Horner. Angliru is all about keeping a steady rhythm, sitting on the bike. Horner is always standing in the pedals and should it rain, it won’t be easy for him to distance the others. It’s true that Horner is better than the rest on the steep gradients right now but Angliru is constantly steep and therefore it’s more important to keep a steady rhythm. Also, Horner has never climbed Angliru before. Nibali has.

Like in the Tour, Purito seems to be very strong after the last rest day. However, after his win on Alto de Naranco he also said that “this was his last chance”. He knows it will be extremely difficult to win on Angliru and he’s probably more focused on gaining time on Valverde than going for the stage win. However, this climb suits Alejandro Valverde very well. The Movistar leader knows how to keep a high speed and honestly, I don’t think Purito will be able to distance Valverde enough to make podium. Actually, I doubt he will distance Valverde at all. The only chance for Purito to take 3^rd place is if Nibali has a - very - bad day. In 2011, Liquigas sat a strong pace for Vincenzo Nibali in the bottom of Angliru but halfway to the top, Nibali couldn’t follow anymore and he ended up losing 2:37 min to Juanjo Cobo. I doubt it will happen again this time but if Radioshack, Movistar and Katusha work together and put pressure on Nibali already on Cordal, he may crack again on Angliru.

As mentioned, Movistar, Lampre and Euskaltel haven’t won a single stage in this year’s race and they will all be eager to change that fact today. Eros Capecchi and José Herrada are probably the two best cards Movistar can play in a breakaway. Capecchi was very good on Angliru in 2011 and it’s important to know this climb. I had Diego Ulissi down as my joker for stage 19 and he finished 2^nd after Purito. Ulissi seems to have timed his shape perfectly for the World Championships and if he gets into the break, he will be very difficult to beat.

A steep climb like Angliru is always good for the pure climbers and Euskaltel has a lot of them. Mikel Nieve and Igor Antón are both out of the GC and will have freedom to attack. In 2011, Antón put in a strong attack with 7 km to go and for a time, he seemed to be the winner. However, he couldn’t follow when Cobo made his move. Back then, Antón attacked from the peloton. He ended up losing 1:21 min but imagine what he can do with a gap of 3 minutes in the bottom of the climb. Igor Antón has won on Monte Zoncolan in the past (2011) - the Italian pendant to Angliru - and he’s always been best on the steepest gradients.

It would be a smart move by Astana to send a rider or two in the early breakaway. They don’t have to control the race anymore and they would be happy to see the bonus seconds taken out of the equation if Nibali can't follow Horner. Tanel Kangert and Paolo Tiralongo will most likely stay with Nibali. Kangert sits 11^th overall and Tiralongo never leaves Nibali’s side. Not even when the doctors advised him to do so when he was sick during the Giro. I think Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang may fancy their chances. Brajkovic was the first rider in the Red Jersey and he’s been looking strong, working for Nibali, ever since. Before the Vuelta started, Fuglsang said he came to support Nibali and prepare for the World Championships. So far, he’s been riding very well without going over his limits. In the beginning, Fuglsang was aiming for a stage win but he became locked after Nibali took the jersey early in the race. Now he has a chance, his last chance, and it would be a shame to waste it. At least to get a strong day of racing before Florence.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this final day in the mountains, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

Team Saxo-Tinkoff did it again. They took the peloton by surprise in the crosswind and managed to distance Domenico Pozzovivo by 1:30 min. Nicolas Roche is therefore now back in Top5 - his big goal - and it will be interesting to see what Pozzovivo can do to take back the time he lost.

Stage 18 provides the first opportunity to change the overall classification. The 186.5 km include no less than five categorized climbs and the last one, Peña Cabarga, is one of the toughest in this year’s Vuelta a España. The day starts in Burgos where the riders head north. A light headwind will accompany the peloton for most of the day and we can expect another hard day in the saddle.

The breakaway has a good chance of making it all the way again and it will be a furious fight to get into that final break. There are no real climbs the first 75 km it won’t be a surprise if the break doesn’t get away for good until they hit the first climb. Alto de Bocos is only 3 km long but its average gradient of 6.6 % will show who has the legs to be in front today.

The following three climbs come right after each other and the penultimate one, Alto del Caracol, has its top just 40 km from the finishing line. The run-in towards the final climb is up and down at all the time and nobody will arrive at the bottom of Peña Cabarga with fresh legs. There is an intermediate sprint in Solares with just 10 km to go and in case the break is caught, we may see the GC riders sprint for the three bonus seconds.

Peña Cabarga. 5.9 km / avg. 9.2 %

As the riders gets close to the final ascent, the roads turns 180° which means the peloton will start the last climb with a light tailwind. Peña Cabarga is 5.9 km long and has an average gradient of 9.2 %. There are even parts of over 20 % on the last kilometer. In 2011, Chris Froome took his first GrandTour stage win, when he outsprinted Juanjo Cobo on the final meters. Back then, Cobo attack with 1 km to go and at this point, they were still 10 riders left in front group. This time we may see attacks a bit earlier. Valverde and Purito can’t wait to the last kilometer and the TV-viewers can enjoy a great fight this Thursday afternoon. As Chris Horner says:  “Grab your beer and get ready for the show!”

Chris Horner still seems to be the strongest rider uphill in this race and it’s difficult to imagine why it would change now. Astana will be happy if a breakaway makes it and thereby takes the bonus seconds on the line. Vincenzo Nibali didn’t look too good the other day, however I’m sure the Italian is only getting better. It won’t be easy to drop him on the steep percentages. Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang will all be there to support Nibali in the final and probably Paolo Tiralongo as well. Chris Horner only has Robert Kiserlovski left to help but then again, the Croatian champion is probably among the best climbers in the race right now. Kiserlovski can’t afford to have a bad day though - in that case, Horner will be completely isolated.

It will be very interesting to see how Movistar will ride this stage. They haven’t won a single stage yet and they must be eager to finally cross the line first. Before the stage to Formigal, Alejandro Valverde seemed happy just to take 3^rd place overall but not anymore. Valverde now eyes the Red Jersey and he says he won’t be afraid of attacking from a far - and to risk losing everything - if he sees an opening. However, it’s important to remember that Valverde doesn’t know the Peña Cabarga ascent. He decided to rest after the Tour instead of going to check out the climb.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is probably on the same page in the tactic book as Valverde. He showed he is now strong enough to drop the other GC riders uphill and on the steep percentages on Peña Cabarga, Purito has to try again. I would imagine Dani Moreno to set a high pace in the beginning of the climb in order for Purito to attack when gradients get over 10 %. Purito already knows what it takes to win on Peña Cabarga. He won here in 2010 when he distanced Nibali with 20 seconds after a late attack with just 800 meters to go. 

Domenico Pozzovivo lost his 5^th place overall in the crosswind on stage 17 and he will be eager to take it back from Nicolas Roche. The steep climbs suits Pozzovivo perfectly and with only 53 kg to carry, he should be able to distance Roche in the final. He probably won’t take back all the time he lost in the wind but he will get closer.

As stated, the breakaway has a good chance of making it again. It would suit Astana perfectly if the bonus seconds weren’t up for grabs and Movistar and Katusha may be too focused on the battle for the GC to control the peloton. However, if Valverde and Purito wants a stage win from this year’s Vuelta this is an opportunity they can’t afford to miss. Anyway, in case a break makes it all the way, let’s take a look at some of the best candidates.

First up is Michele Scarponi. The Italian is very strong right now and has been good at hitting the right breaks. Scarponi can’t drop the best riders uphill anymore but he showed the other day, that he is in great shape. He finished second after Alexandre Geniez and was one of the few riders able to take back time on the Frenchman on the last climb. Why he let him get away in first place is a mystery. One thing talking against Scarponi is that he’s only 12:08 min after Vincenzo Nibali. At this point in the race, the team start to protect their Top10 places and they may not let Scarponi get too much of a gap.

Euskaltel are trying hard to get a stage win in their last Vuelta and I’m sure they will do whatever they can in order to put a strong climber in the early breakaway. Igor Antón and Mikel Nieve are not big threats in the GC and especially Antón seems to be doing pretty well right now. Another Spanish climber who’s getting better and better is David Arroyo. He came to race in great shape but crashed in one of the first stages. Slowly Arroyo is getting back at a high level and he’s now less than a minute from breaking into Top10 overall. The final climb suits Arroyo just fine but he won’t be able to drop the other GC riders. If he wants to give Caja Rural a stage win, he needs to attack from a far. Like Scarponi, it won’t be easy to get a big gap but you never know this late in the race.

For other good candidates look to riders like Amets Txurruka, Nicolas Edet, Georg Preidler, Ivan Santaromita, Diego Ulissi, Rafal Majka, Dario Cataldo and Yoann Bagot. Bagot is right now 22^nd in the overall classification but he needs four minutes to make into Top20. So far, the French riders have been very good in this Vuelta and I can’t see why Warren Barguil shouldn’t be able to make a hat-trick. He’s obviously in outstanding shape right now and despite his inexperience Barguil really knows how to hit the right breakaway!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 18, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview

Remember the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.

There will be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r, Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.

The beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an early break will make it.

I think Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week, giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.

Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top.

Euskaltel have, naturally, also been out doing some recon of these stages last week, and I’m sure Samuel Sanchez will be eager to take the first personal win in over a year and Euskaltel’s first win of the season. Sanchez too was very good on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and the short hills and tricky descents are perfect for him - especially in the rain, where other riders have problems.

Team Sky lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group with Porte left behind.

Damiano Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front, I’m sure he will try something in the final.

In Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the stage and they ended 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. On this stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates instead.

Favorites: Quintana, Sanchez.

Solid outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón

Jokers: Fuglsang, Gilbert, Vicioso

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 3 Preview

After two "semi-flat" stages it's now time for the GC riders to show their ambitions. The last 40 km of the stage includes three categorized climbs and the finish on Alto de la Lejana kicks up with 21% the last 400 meters.

It's a stage for the explosive riders and without any bonus seconds on the line, the pure climbers without a strong time trial - like Igor Antón and Sergio Henao - need to distance their rivals. Euskaltel were out training on the climb a couple of days ago and Igor Antón has already stated he wants to do something great in this race. The finish on Arrate (Stage 4) doesn't really suit him, so if he wants a stage win, this is the stage to win.

Naturally it won't be easy with Alberto Contador and Team Sky in the race. Contador is looking very strong right now and I'm sure he will be eager to take another win in the Basque race. Team Sky have been outstanding so far this year and even though everybody is talking about Richie Porte, I think Sergio Henao will be the man for this stage. The steep gradients suit Henao a lot better than Porte and don't forget Henao took 3^rd place on the steep finish in last year's race.

Movistar's Nairo Quintana has been superb uphill the last month, but I don't think this short finish is good for him. Quintana likes it steep, yes, but not very short like this one. Also, Nairo Quintana wasn't planned to do the race as he were in France doing Tour de France recon with Alejandro Valverde just a few days before he was called up. I think Beñat Intxausti, despite his crash and time loss on stage 1, will be the team leader for Movistar.

For outsiders look to Wout Poels and Tom-Jelte Slagter. Both are very explosive and good on the steep gradients. Poels were great in Tirreno-Adriatico, considering his crash in Tour de France last year, and Slagter showed in Tour Down Under that he has what it takes to beat the elite on a short uphill finish.

It's difficult to pick a winner and I woud like to say both Antón, Henao and Contador, but if I have to pick one I'll have to say Contador. Still, don't be surprised if Euskaltel get their first win of the season on La Lejana.

Winner picks: Alberto Contador
Jokers: Wout Poels / Tom-Jelte Slagter

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 1 Preview

There aren’t any tailored stages for the sprinters in this year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco but stage 1 and 2 should still end in a sprint. A sprint in a reduced group that is. We have six categorized climbs on the menu and the last one, Alto de Aiastia (4,8 km / 5,42%), has its top just 7 km from the line.

It’s a good finish for riders with strong downhill skills like Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Cunego, but I think GreenEdge, BMC and Astana will try to keep it together. Especially GreenEdge look strong with Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey for the stage, while Astana have Francesco Gavazzi and Enrico Gasparotto. For BMC, Phillipe Gilbert will be the man for sprint and this is a good opportunity for the World Champion to show he’s ready for the upcoming Ardennes Classics later this month.

With a profile like this one, a break will have a solid chance of making it. Especially if strong riders get away on the last climb and if so, look to the Basque home favorites. Euskaltel are still without a win this season and naturally, they are very eager to perform on home soil. Samuel Sanchez may not be 100% yet - since he's targeting the Giro this year and not this race - but riders like Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón will be ready to fight stage wins. Personally, I expect a lot from Igor Antón, but on this stage I think the Izagirre brothers will shine. Gorka is very strong on the descents, he showed that in the Tour last year, and fast on the line too. He ended 14^th in GP Miguel Indurain on Saturday and he is my outsider for the stage win in Elgoibar Monday afternoon.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Joker: Gorka Izagirre

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 20

Just a few days ago we all thought this would be the stage where the Vuelta would find its final winner. In a way it still is, but definitely not like we expected it to be. Only a total off day or bad luck can rip the red jersey of Alberto Contador's shoulder and I can't see it happen.

Contador will win this year's Vuelta España, like predicted, but the second place is still wide open! Before the stage there are only 46 seconds between Valverde and Purito and even though only the victory seemed to count for Purito I'm sure he will do everything he can to end second instead of third. No disrespect for Alejandro Valverde, but it's no shame to lose a Grand Tour to Alberto Contador. Second place after the Spanish legend is still something you can be proud of.

Therefore I expect Purito to give everything he has left in the tank in order to drop Valverde on Bola del Mundo. So far Purito has taken 55 seconds (without bonus seconds) on Valverde on the previous stages ending with a climb (without taking stage 4 into consideration) but it has never been more than maximum 19 seconds á stage (without bonus seconds) so he really needs to dig deep and probably even win the stage in order to overtake Valverde in the general classification. Not an easy task, but never the less a task I think Purito can manage. Mentally it won't be easy but there are no doubts  that the last climb suits Purito very well with parts of 23% within the last kilometer.

Bola del Mundo - Click for larger view!

A few days ago I thought Purito might let Contador take this stage on home soil near Madrid, but after the epic stage to Fuente Dé the tables have turned. It would be an amazing finish to this Vuelta for Alberto Contador if he wins on Bola del Mundo in the red jersey - and I’m sure he will try hard to do so - but I also  but I think it will be difficult to drop Purito if the Katusha captain can put his mind to take the 2nd place overall instead of winning. No matter what this is a stage you need to watch live!

As you can see I think this will be a fight between the best riders and therefore it's very difficult to pick a joker. I really think Igor Antón will try something on a climb that suits him perfectly but it won't be easy to get away as Rabobank will work hard in order to protect their 6th and 7th place overall. I agreed with Felix than any rider outside of the top3 can be seen as a joker for this stage the only problem is who to pick? I have a feeling Antón has what it takes to pull it off, but I also have a good eye to Sergio Henao. It seems like Team Sky are giving Uran and Henao green light to try own luck as the podium is out of reach for Chris Froome and if the favorite hesitate a bit Sergio Henao could profit with a strong attack.

With my luck the last couple of days (Tiralongo & Valverde on stage 17 and Degenkolb and Matti on stage 19) it will probably be the one I don’t pick who wins. Anyway I’ll take Antón and hope for the best!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Igor Antón

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Thomas de Gendt

Explanation: Belgian all-rounder Thomas de Gendt came into the race with high hopes but so far has just a couple of breaks and a second place to his name. The 25 year old loves these big stages - just look at his track record with the Stelvio and Ciutu Negru - and he also has the polka dot jersey in his sights. A good day could see de Gendt take the stage and become king of the mountains before riding into the sunset on his belated honeymoon. If so, then his new wife will be a lucky girl... But my favourite for the Bola del Mundo showdown is the man I always tipped to win the entire race: Alberto Contador. His form had been consistently high and he's in the ascendency after that win at Fuente De. He also deserves a second stage scalp in a race he has lit up with his constant attacks. That said, I can envisage a situation where the Big Three mark each other out all the way to the summit and Contador gives the win to Purito or Valverde in a magnanimous display of seigneurial largesse.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 4

Close, but - despite the name - no cigar for Purito on stage 3 after he stopped pedaling the last 5 meters. Afterwards Purito said he was “pissed at himself for not winning a stage he practically had in his hands” and you can understand his frustration. Stage winner Alejandro Valverde lost Tour Down Under on bonus seconds earlier this year because he stopped pedaling just before the line, he learned his lesson and I’m sure Purito has done so too now.

New asphalt on the road to Valdezcaray. 

Good thing for Purito is that he already has another change of success on stage 4. 160 km finishing at the Valdezcaray Ski Resort with a 13,4 km Category1 climb. The Rioja government recently spent 234.600 Euros on improving the Valdezcaray road (LR-416) so at least the riders can’t complain about the road conditions.

The climb itself isn’t very difficult and with an average gradient of 5,2% it’s definitely one of “lightest” mountains in this Vuelta. The steepest part is in the very beginning with 7,8 & 9% over the first four kilometers, but with the expected head wind it will be difficult to attack and stay alone in the front. Especially because the last 3,4 kilometers almost are flat (1-3%) compared to earlier.

Alberto Contador showed to be the strongest on Alto de Arrate on stage 3 attacking 6-7 times and I expect him to continue that on his way to Valdezcaray. Looking at the finish it should be another fight between Purito and Valverde though, but it’s an open climb with a lot of wind and if Purito isn’t 100% mentally ready again after his mistake on stage 3 he could be suffering a lot - as he has done in the past on these kind of “light”, long climbs. I still think Purito will stay up front with the best but I must say I think it will be another Katusha rider who’ll take the win.

Final climb - click for larger view!

Because this is such an “easy” second part of the climb it’s very likely that a big group with many of the favorites and some strong team mates swill be together in the end and if so I think Purito’s team mate Dani Moreno could be a good pick. Moreno just won Vuelta a Burgos overall two weeks ago after winning two stages with an uphill sprint finish and that could very well happen again in Valdezcaray.

Alberto Contador would be the natural winner pick here, but as I said, this “easy” finish suits Dani Moreno a lot better. We are still in Pais Vasco and that means that the Basque riders of course will try sneak away and snatch a stage win. It’s not a good climb for Igor Antón but instead his team mate Mikel Landa. It’s true that Landa almost lost two minutes on stage 3 but I still think he will be able to put in a strong attack. Plus the fact that he did lose time on Arrate means that the other favorites won’t go after him right away.

I think it will be a sprint in selected group of favorites but if not, Landa could be a good pick on home soil.

Winner pick: Dani Moreno

Joker: Mikel Landa

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Amets Txurruka

Explanation: Bert showed enough on the final climb of Arrate to show that he's in great form. On a longer, more arduous ascent we can expect him to take the win without too much ado. As for my joker, well, Euskaltel missed a trick on Monday and the only way to make up will be a win near the Basque region. Txurruka to get in the day's main break and hold on is my wildcard choice.

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Interview - Denis Menchov

Denis Menchov had his whole season built around the Tour de France but after a good start he faded off and never got to be the key player in the classification that he had hoped to be. Many thought that would be the end of Menchov’s season but to make sure that his home country’s team can get another GT podium this year, he decided to do the Vuelta as super domestique for Purito. Here is what he told me the day before the start of the Vuelta.

Denis, first of all, can you put a few words on your Tour de France performance?

I started  out well and then I had a crises, which of course came as bad surprise for me. Unfortunately that can happen in sport, especially on the highest level. I didn’t lose my motivation though. I know that you always need two or three days to recover from such a thing.

And now it’s time for the Vuelta. Are you here only to support Purito or what is your role on the team?

Well, for me the most important is the team’s results. Of course I want to do a good race myself, but it’s more important for me that Katusha get a good result than I do. I will do my best and if that means I can take a win, why not do it?

What do you think about this year’s route? Seems to be very good for Purito...

Sure, I think it’s a very good route for him, like last year. Actually they are quite similar I think. I don’t see it as super hard, but instead very nervous and with a hard final part of the race. It suits him well.

Have you already checked out any of the stages?

I have only studied the course in the road book and on the internet because I already know the important stages and climbs of this edition’s race. Personally I like the stages in the third week the most, specially stage 15 to Lagos de Covadonga.

How about the opening team time trial? Is that a goal?

For sure, but it’s a goal for a lot of teams. We will try to do the best TTT we have ever done and by that gain some time on our main rivals. Of course the best would be to win it.

Looking at the other favorites for the overall classification. Who do you see as the main rivals?

Except for Contador I will say Froome, Cobo, Valverde and Antón. Froome might be a little tired because the Tour was very stress and normally you would some rest after a race like that. But of course he is motivated since it’s the first time he can be the team leader of Team Sky.

Last question. How does your future look?

Well, my plan is to stay with Katusha.  it’s a really strong team and I’m happy to be in this group. I’m glad I still have one more year left here.  

Vuelta España - Preview & Favorites

If you know a little about cycling - and let’s be honest, the fact that you are reading this now means you’re not a rookie - you know there is one rider above everybody else for this Vuelta España. Alberto Contador is back and if you think he latest Grand Tour performance (Tour de France 2011) showed his real level, you’re very wrong.

Alberto Contador is THE favorite for this Vuelta and if he stays upright and avoid any bad luck it will be a surprise even bigger than Juanjo Cobo’s overall win last year, if he doesn’t wear the red leader’s jersey in Madrid.

Looking at the route one could argue that it favors explosive riders like Purito a bit more than Contador, but the fact is that any route suiting a climber suits Alberto Contador too. Team Saxo Bank desperately need a big victory and the way I see it anything but the overall win will be a big disappointment for the Danish team.  I could write several pages up and down about why Alberto Contador will win this race, but I really don’t see the point in it. Instead let’s take a look at some of the riders fighting for the last to spots on the final podium.

Forgetting Contador I count three riders with a solid chance of doing Top3 in this Vuelta. First one is Chris Froome. Despite an outstanding performance in the Tour de France the ex-Kenyan still feels ready to rock in Spain and remember that the Vuelta always has been Froome’s main goal this season. He showed in the Tour that last year’s Vuelta podium wasn’t a one-time-only achievement and with strong riders like Henao, Uran and &Porte to help in the mountains, Chris Froome will be the most dangerous rival to Alberto Contador. Froome himself calls this “the big chance of my life” and he says he still feels fresh despite going all-in in both the Tour and the Olympics.

The way I see it another podium spot for Froome should be a sure thing, but it requires he can keep his high level from the Tour and that won’t be easy in the last week and especially on Bola del Mundo. If Chris Froome is ready he most likely takes 2^nd place overall but if not, Team Sky could end up riding for Sergio Henao or Rigoberto Uran instead.

Not many riders - if any - can follow
Purito on a short, steep finish.

Next rider up is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Purito showed in the Giro earlier this year that he has what it takes to win a Grand Tour and as I said, this route looks to be designed by Purito himself. A lot of steep uphill finishes, a short team time trial (where Katusha nowadays are among the favorites) and only one time trial that even includes a climb in the middle. This is Purito’s biggest chance ever to finally get on the Vuelta podium and hadn’t it been for Contador’s presence I would have tipped him to win it. 

To support him in the mountains, Purito once again has Dani Moreno as his right hand but also Denis Menchov has decided to chip in and help out when needed. Both Dani and Menchov could probably do Top5 overall had they been team leaders on other teams and together with Alberto Losada, who seems to be very strong right now, Katusha is surely one of the best teams in this race. I will be surprised if Purito won’t be on the final podium in Madrid.

Last rider I see with a real chance of the podium is Igor Antón. It’s an even year this time and that means that the Basque climber will be ready, or at least so it seems. In 2008 Antón was called up to be the biggest threat to Alberto Contador in the Vuelta but unfortunately Antón had to abandon after a crash early on the Queen Stage to Angliru. In 2009 Igor Antón barely showed anything, but in 2010 he was back – better than ever! Anyone following the Vuelta that year can agree that Igor Antón would have won the race hadn’t it been for a horrible crash with less than a week to go. Antón was leading the Vuelta and seemed to have a gear more than the others uphill, but once again his race was ruined by a crash.

Last year Antón decided to change his program and do the Giro before the Vuelta. He took a beautiful stage win on Zoncolan, but the hard race had drained him for the Vuelta where he couldn’t stay with best. This year Igor Antón hasn’t showed much so far and that is actually a good sign. According to himself he feels as good as back in 2010 and with his strong performance on the mountain stage in Vuelta a Burgos and in Classica San Sebastian earlier this week I think we will see Igor Antón as strong as ever in this Vuelta.

Some might argue that riders like Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Juanjo Cobo and Jurgen Van den Broeck should be named as well as riders with a chance of the podium, but I must admit that I can’t see it happen. Gesink and Mollema seems to be a strong duo and they definitely want revenge from the Tour, but both of them still need to show they can stay with the best in all three weeks. For what concerns Cobo and VdB I just simply don’t think they have anything to show in this race. Cobo took the cycling world by surprise last year but I strongly doubt he can do it again this time – and let me remind you that Cobo often fails when he changes teams.

Quintana makes climbing look easy.

Instead I think Movistar will do a lot better with guys like Beñat Intxausti and Nairo Quintana, not to mention Javier Moreno. Intxausti showed to strong in the Giro but had one bad day and lost his GC. If he can be steady this time he could very well end up being the best Movistar rider in the final classification. Nairo Quintana is another interesting rider. This young guy is a born climber and when he’s in shape he makes even the most difficult climbs look easy. I have Quintana down for winning the Giro or the Vuelta in two or three years and I wouldn’t be surprised if he already took a stage win this year and maybe the mountain jersey too.

There is no fun without a couple of jokers and of course I have a few for you as well this time. First up is Andrew Talansky. There is no doubt that this young American is a future Tour de France contender and given the leader role in the Vuelta I think (and hope) Talansky is ready to prove me right. In Volta ao Algarve, Tour de Romandie and latest in Tour de l'Ain he showed small glimpse of what he can do and even though he might had preferred another time trial in the race I think his strong climbing abilities will be enough to give him a spot in the final Top10.

Same goes for Eros Capecchi who has been one of my favorite “talents” for (too?) many years now. Capecchi was outstanding in his U-23 years but he still hasn’t had his big breakthrough on the professional scene. In Giro del Trentino this year he showed to be one of the strongest in the mountains, working for Szmyd and in Giro d’Italia he showed the world how strong he was as super domestique for Ivan Basso. The route suits Capecchi very well and being quite fast on the line as well, there are many stages where the Italian can try his luck for a stage win. Capecchi will be riding for Movistar next year and if he wants to get a chance of being team leader in Giro d’Italia he needs to show that he can perform over three weeks when he’s the designated leader. I hope Eros Capecchi will be able to make Top10, but Top15 might be a more realistic goal.

There are a lot of riders fighting for the places from 5^th to 20^th in the overall classification and to give you a better idea about how I see their chances I have decided to give you my own Pre-Top20 for this year’s Vuelta España right here. Enjoy and thanks for reading!

1. Contador

2. Froome

3. Purito 

4. Antón

5. Gesink

6. Henao

7. Tiralongo

8. Mollema

9. Talansky

10. Quintana

11. Machado

12. Intxausti

13. Uran

14. Capecchi

15. Dani

16. Cobo

17. Monfort

18. Kessiakoff

19. Cataldo

20. Cunego

More spectacular 'rampas' in the Vuelta

On next Wednesday, the 11th of January, this year's Vuelta España route will be presented in Pamplona but before knowing everything we have already at least two stages to look forward to. The last couple of years stage finishes like the one in Valdepeñas de Jaén - and especially last year's found in San Lorenzo El Escorial - have given us great drama on the final kilometers and that seems to continue in 2012.

The finish in El Escorial last year -28% !

I'm talking about stage 6 (to el Fuerte de Rapitán in Huesca) and stage 12 (to el Mirador de Ézaro in A Coruña). Especially the stage in Galicia to el Mirador de Ézaro looks frightening with 'rampas' up to 30% and 12,7% in average on the last 2 km - 14% on the final kilometer. A lot like what we saw in El Escorial last year I suppose.

The finish on stage 6 to el Fuerte Rapitán is 2,8 km long with 7,5% in average and comes right after the Cat3 climb Puerto de Oroel, which according to former top climber Fernando Escartin, isn't very difficult, but has a very fast downhill with a lot of corners. "Therefore it's very important to be positioned in the front already on Puerto de Oroel if you want to have a chance to win the stage", Escartin points out in today's AS.

We will know a lot more about these two stages and the rest of the Vuelta course next Wednesday, but it sure seems like we - and riders like Purito, Valverde, Antón & Gilbert - have a lot to look forward to!

Vuelta Expert Preview: Stage 18

David Etxebarria:

Today it has to be a rider from Euskaltel. They are motivated and they need it! Igor Antón is the logical choice, but Mikel Nieve has also shown his is very strong now. It will be interesting to see if Team Sky wants to block the race and race for the bonus seconds. It could be the last day for take the jersey – or not! This is cycling gentlemen!

Vuelta Expert Preview: Stage 17

David Etxebarria:

My favorite for today is Igor Antón, for more or less sentimental reasons. Last year he lost the Vuelta on this stage and today he can take revenge. He was already a lot better on Angliru and maybe even stronger today. The bonus seconds are important today for the GC so I wouldn’t be surprised if Cobo took more time on his rivals, not much but maybe 10-15 seconds.

Vuelta Rest Day Interview - Mauro Gianetti (Team Manager, GEOX-TMC)

Team Geox finally showed their real potential on the stage to Angliru last Sunday, when Juanjo Cobo won the stage and ripped the red jersey off Bradley Wiggins. I guess I don’t have to point out it was a very happy team manager I talked with on Monday’s rest day.

Mauro, first of all, congratulation! This must be the best rest day for you in a long time?
Thank you. Yes, I am very happy. Since the beginning of the season we have known we had a good team with a good level, but for many reasons we have never been able to really show it. Now it finally happened.

At what point during the Vuelta did you start to think that Cobo could be a player for the overall win?
Well, from the beginning actually. We knew he could do a good GC, since he did top10 two years ago. Normally he would work for the captains, but he managed to stay up front all the time and only lose some time in the time trial. One week ago we told him that he should stay close to Menchov and follow him and only work hard if we really needed it.

Menchov showed on Angliru that he is back at his former great level, what happened to him in the first week?
We really didn’t have a good start. First we lost time in the team time trial when Blanco crashed and then Denis had a mechanical problem and lost time. So after just a few stages he was more than 2½ minutes behind and that made it difficult for him, also for his morale. Also he is not so good at placing himself in the sprints so he has also lost some time there, for example when Sagan took his second stage win [stage 12, Menchov lost 19 seconds, edt.]. But now he is back and that is very important in order to keep the jersey.

What about now. We still have one week to go, what is the plan?
Now we have to defend the jersey as long as possible. Peña Cabarga [on stage 17] is not an easy climb and the stages in Pais Vasco are definitely not easy either. It will be great to ride in the Cantabria region with the jersey. The team has base there and we have the region as sponsor on our jersey, moreover Cobo is also from that region. We really have to stay focused now and keep the concentration all the time.

What can we expect on Peña Cabarga? Will Cobo try to take more time?
It depends on how he feels. It has some very steep parts and is more a climb for Purito-Moreno and Nieve-Antón. But of course if he can, he will try to get some more time and maybe some bonus seconds. We must be smart. It’s now Froom and Wiggins who have to attack.

And who do you see as the strongest of the two?
I think they are on the same level. Froome is very, very strong right now. Also in the time trial. He is closer, but Wiggins has more experience. One week is still a long time and it’s important for them that they are two riders who can attack. We will see what happens.

Last, but not least, Mauro Gianetti also confirmed that the team has reached an agreement with Juanjo Cobo for two more seasons!

Vuelta Expert Preview: Stage 9

David Etxebarria:

It’s a very important day for the favorites today and my pick is Michele Scarponi. Another good one is Igor Antón who has the advantage that he has already lost some time in GC. Therefore the favorites won’t follow him if they are all together and Igor attacks on Covatilla. If Menchov loses time again his Vuelta is over.

Vuelta Expert Preview: Stage 5

David Etxebarria:

Great win for Dani yesterday. Today I pick Joaquim once again :) Scarponi and Nibali with options as well. Also a very important day for one of the pre-favorites, Igor Antón. After yesterday’s result we will now see if he still has chances of winning the Vuelta or if he is already out.

Vuelta Expert Preview: Stage 1

David Etxebarria:

In the Vuelta the first week is very important, since the level between the favorites will be more even hereafter. It’s therefore an important day for all the favorites. Like Igor Antón, Euskaltel has never been good in the disciplines against the clock and will lose time. Even the biggest favorite, Denis Menchov, will have to wait and see how much time he ends up losing.

My pick for the stage win is Leopard-Trek.

Exclusive Interview - Mauro Gianetti (Manager, Team GEOX)

Bringing one of the strongest teams in many years to the Vuelta, Team GEOX is certainly the team to watch during the next three weeks. To get a better picture of what we can expect, I took a chat with team manager Mauro Gianetti about his view on this year’s race.

Mauro, first of all, how do you feel about your team’s chances in the Vuelta?
Well the team is good. Everybody is ready. We are coming to the Vuelta with Denis [Menchov, edt.] to win the race. He has been working hard and reached a good level so everything is good. We also have Carlos [Sastre, edt.] ready to be a big player. I think it’s very important to have two so experienced riders in the team. It's not very often you get to have two riders with Grand Tours wins on the same team for a race.

Let’s take a look at the 9 riders and what their roles are…
Menchov is our leader. He is ready to win - no doubt about that. He is a great, great rider and has already won the Vuelta twice. He has a very high level and together with Purito and Antón he is one of the rider’s who can win the race. Sastre is coming in a good condition as well. The Vuelta is very important to him so we expect him to be one of the key riders. The same goes for Cobo. He has been having a difficult time, but now is he back again with great motivation. He has class and his job is to work for the team in the hard moments uphill and help Denis. He is a very good rider for our team. Blanco is another very important rider for the team. He can help in any aspect of the race. He is ready to use his experience and big class to help the team on both the flat parts and in the moutains. Same goes for Ardila and Kozonchuk. Their main job is to work for the team. Young Brändle is in the race to learn. He has great potential it will be good for him to stay with Denis and Carlos for as long as possible. He is a man for the future! De la Fuente is a good climber and it’s his job to stay with our leaders. He is very important in the first part of the climbs. Last we have Duarte. We hope he can surprise us. It took him a very long time to get back after his knee injury in the Giro, so we have to wait and see.

All the bookmakers have Team GEOX set as the big, big favorite for the team classification and looking at the riders you easily see why…
That’s true. And it’s very good for the morale as well. It means the riders know that we have a great team and that can help on the mentality. We are firstly here to win the race, but the team classification could be a goal later on as well.

What about the opening team time trial?
Honestly I don’t like this discipline so much. Cycling is an individual sport and with the team time trials a good rider can lose a race just because his team isn’t among the best ones. But since this one is only 14 km, there won’t be very big differences. So it’s okay, it’s a good show.

Looking at the rest of the course, what do you think about this year’s route? The long time trial must be good for Menchov’s chances in the GC?
Sure. The time trial is very important, if you can take 1½ min on your rivals it’s important. But every day is different. This year there are so many mountains and uphill finishes, so riders like Antón and Purito still have a good chance of winning the race compared to last year, where Purito lost it in the time trial.

Who is your own personal favorite for the overall victory?
Nibali. He showed last year that he is capable of winning the race so he must be the big favorite.

Last question. Carlos Sastre ends his contract with the team after this season. Will this be his last Vuelta?
Well, we don’t know yet. We will see how the race goes and then Carlos will have to make a decision...