Tour de France: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

Christophe Riblon did what he does best and took an impressive stage win after a long breakaway in the mountains. Stage 19 doesn’t finish uphill but it will be just as hard for the riders.

The Route

We are in the end of the third week and everybody is already on his limits. Add to that an extremely tough uphill time trial and double up on Alpe d’Huez the days before. These 204.5 km will feel like forever for the riders and it all starts out with two HC climbs. Bon appetite!

There are 21.6 km to the top of Col du Glandon and due to a couple of small descents, the average gradient is “only” 5.1 %. There are steep parts of 11 % in the middle and after a long part of 5 %, the climb kicks up with 8 % near the top. The first rider over the top gets 25 points for the KOM Jersey and with no less than 75 points up for grabs today, this is a very important day for the riders targeting that competition. Chris Froome leads the competition in front of Nairo Quintana and since they both will get points on Saturday’s uphill finish, riders like Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland really need to attack from a far if they want to win the jersey.

After the descent from Col du Glandon, there are just 10 km to the next HC climb starts. Col de Madeleine is feared by many and with its 19.2 km of 7.9 %,it’s not difficult to understand why. There are still 121 km to go from the top of Madeleine and we will most likely see a breakaway get a good gap at this point.

The Finish

The last 70 km include three climbs in a row. First up is Col de Tamié (8.6 km / avg. 6.2 %) and after that it’s time for the steep Col de l’Épine with an average of 7.3 % and parts over 10 % near the top. The riders stay on a plateau for about 10 km after reaching the top of Col de l’Épine and after a short descent, they face the final climb of the day. Col de la Croix Fry is 11.3 km and has an average gradient of 7 %. There are steep parts halfway through to the top and we should see the favorites attack each other on this climb.

From the top of Col de la Croix Fry there are just 13 km to go and with only a few tricky corners on the descent, we can expect a fast finish. As of Thursday evening, there are 50 % chance of rain during the stage and that could spice up things a bit. The Tour had a similar stage finish in 2004 when Lance Armstrong tried to get teammate Floyd Landis to win. Landis didn’t manage to get away on the descent and in the end Armstrong outsprinted Andreas Klöden to take the stage win.

The final 70 km of Stage 19 - Click for larger view.

The Favorites

As hoped for in my Preview for stage 18, Saxo-Tinkoff tried to make a masterpiece. They failed however and now they have to focus on keeping their podium spot instead of trying to win the Tour. It’s not like Alberto Contador not to aim for the overall win and even though he may not care if he ends 2^nd or 10^th, I bet his team does. I personally doubt Saxo-Tinkoff will try to open up the race from afar on this stage but with Contador you never know.

I didn’t mention Purito among my favorites for Alpe d’Huez since I was waiting to play him as my favorite for this stage. Purito had two big goals for this first part of the season; Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Tour de France. He managed to time his condition perfectly for LBL but in a sprint against Dan Martin he couldn’t do better than second place. Ever since April all focus has been on the Tour and trying to peak in the third week. So far, everything has gone according to the plan and Purito is now just 26 seconds from the podium. In his preparation for the Tour, Purito has been training on this stage and tomorrow’s stage and he knows exactly what to expect. He best chance of making podium is to drop Contador and Kreuziger - I doubt he can handle Quintana - and to do that he needs to put in a couple of strong attacks on Col de la Croix Fry. 

Teammate Dani Moreno is also peaking right now and I expect a big show from Katusha in the last days in the Alps. Purito’s biggest rival for the stage win is Alejandro Valverde but according to Valverde, Movistar are now all-in for Nairo Quintana and his podium place. In case Alberto Contador has another bad day, I think it will only be Purito, Froome and Quintana in front (among the favorites) over the top of Col de la Croix Fry and if they can make it to the finishing line, Purito should be able to outsprint Quintana. Froome will happy just to keep the yellow jersey.

The Jokers

I mentioned in the beginning that this is an important stage for the riders still hoping to win the KOM Jersey. Mikel Nieve is fourth in that competition right now, 41 points behind Chris Froome, but if Nieve is first man over the two first climbs, he will take the jersey - for now. The strong Basque climber is 15^th overall, 24:13 minutes down, and he’s not a threat for the Top10 riders should he get into the morning breakaway. Euskaltel are in desperate need of a new sponsor and it would help quite a lot if Mikel Nieve could win the Polka Dot Jersey.

Europcar tried to attack on stage 18 with Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland but it all came too late as the breakaway already had a big gap. I think both Voeckler and Rolland will be eager to get into the morning breakaway and with a downhill finish, the stage looks very good for especially Voeckler.

My last joker is Alessandro De Marchi. His teammate Moreno Moser came close on Alpe d’Huez and his third place must have boosted the moral for the coming days. De Marchi himself has tried hard the last couple of days in the mountains and he did very well on stage 18 despite not getting into the morning breakaway. He finished 19^th on Alpe d’Huez and he showed in Dauphiné that he has what it takes to go all the way. Two years ago, the Italian’s former team boss, Gianni Savio, told me that De Marchi is strong but “not a winner”. Things have changed since then and should Alessandro De Marchi manage get into the morning breakaway, I think he will be very difficult to beat - should they make it to the line.

Favorite: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Jokers: Thomas Voeckler & Alessandro De Marchi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 19:

Exclusive Interview - Gianni Savio (Team Manager, Androni Giocattoli - Venezuela)

Gianni Savio.

Androni Giocattoli - Venezuela managed to win the Italian Team Championship for the second year in a row and by that secure a spot in next year’s Giro d’Italia. All in all Gianni Savio’s team won 17 races this season so naturally the Italian team manager was very satisfied with how 2012 turned out.

Gianni, first of all congratulations on winning the championship.

Thank you! It was very important to us. First of all because it’s an honor to win the Italian Championship and secondly because we now have a wild card for the Giro d’Italia next year. It’s good that we can start the next season without any stress.

I take it you are quite satisfied with this season?
Indeed! I’m very, very satisfied with this year and to be honest it will be more than difficult to repeat it next year. But of course we will try. We always have the same passion and determination, but... It will not be easy to do as well as this year.

What has been the best moment for the team this year?

I would like you point out three moments. The first one is the Giro d’Italia stage we won with Miguel Angel Rubiano. It was a fantastic day and he was even virtual maglia rosa in the last kilometer. The second moment was when Franco Pellizotti won the Italian Championship. We signed him in May just before the Giro after he had come back from a very difficult time and for him to win the Italian Champions was unbelievable, not only for his career but also for himself as a person. The last one was in Giro dell'Emilia where we secured the Italian Team Championship. There was a ‘sporting war’ going on between Androni and Colnago and luckily for us Pellizotti [ending 3^rd] managed to keep Pozzovivo [ending 4^th] behind him. Don’t forget that if Pozzovivo had won this race, Colnago would have won the Championship!

What about the worst moment of the season?

Hmm… Maybe the beginning of Giro di Padania. Colnago won the TTT and the day after Modolo won a stage. It really didn’t look good for our team [thinking of the Italian Championship], but we managed to finish in a very strong way. We showed a lot of character and determination by putting two riders [Chiarini & Pellizotti] on the final podium behind Nibali.

Looking ahead. How do you see your team next year?

I think we still have a very competitive team. We managed to keep most of our important riders, so next year we will be able to count on Pellizotti, Sella, Felline, Chiarini and Rubiano. I think we have a good team. Furthermore I have signed some very promising young riders such as Matteo Di Serafino and Diego Rosa who is an incredible climber. I would have liked to keep both Ferrari, Serpa and De Marchi but they all got some very good offers from the ProTour teams and with our budget we simply couldn’t match that. My philosophy has always been to be able to pay everybody on the team; riders, mechanics, soigneurs etc. etc. and therefore we couldn’t afford to keep those riders.

And a quick comment about Rujano?

Well… This year Rujano did nothing. Nothing at all. He didn’t finish the Giro and generally he didn’t do well this season. Not only on a sporting level but also on a moral level. 

In the past you have been the only manager able to get results from Rujano. Do you think he will succeed at Vacansoleil-DCM?
It’s impossible to say if he will manage to do well with his new team. Rujano is a very special person with a mind of his own and only - only, only, only - Rujano knows what Rujano will be able to do.

You have one the brightest talents in Fabio Felline on your team. What can we expect from him in 2013?

Felline is still very young and it’s important not to put any pressure on him. That being said, I still think he will have a very good season next year and I think he will be a protagonist in the classics and in the Giro d’Italia. There are many good stages for him in the Giro. In the U23 World Champions he was one of the favorites, but I don’t think the Italian team rode like a team. When I give directions to my riders before a race everybody knows their role, but in the U23 race the Italian team seemed confused. Felline was alone in the final and he had already spent too much energy on attacking. I think that with another strategy it could have turned out differently for him.

Androni Giocattoli - Venezuela just had their first team meeting of the season in Rivarolo Canavese where they were presented with the prize of winning the Italian Team Championship. The team will get together again in the middle of December [9-16] before starting the new season in Argentina with Tour de San Luis.

Even though 2012 has been a huge success for the team, Gianni Savio hasn’t given up on the idea of joining the world’s elite and upgrade to the UCI WorldTour. You can read all about this by clicking here.