Tour Preview - Stage 14

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In between two sprint stages this should be a stage for a breakaway to make it. There is a hard category2 climb, Col du Portel (5,3 km - 6,3%), starting after 22 km and we should see a break taking its final shape here. From the top there is 85 km “flat” until the real final begins with two category1 climbs right after each other.

First up is Port de Lers (11,4 km - 7%) and right after the descent it’s time for a the feared Tour debutant Mur de Péguère (9,3 km - 7,9%). The last 3,3 km of Mur de Péguère have an average percentage of over 12% with parts up to 18%! There is still about 40 km to go from the top of Mur de Péguère, so it might be a good idea not to go solo too early with 20 km flat towards the finishing line.

Favorite:

As I said I think this will be a day a breakaway will make it all the way to the line. There are 20 KOM points for the polka dot jersey on the last two climbs and I know Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get out there and see if he can get the jersey of the shoulders of his Scandinavian rival Fredrik Kessiakoff. Also Thomas Voeckler will be interested in getting in the break and see if he can get back in the fight for the jersey plus taking another stage win. Voeckler is excellent on the descents and show good condition on the uphill sections too, so he is definitely one of the main guys to look out for.

Mur de Péguère - 9,3 km - 7,9%
Click for larger view!

On Stage 13 Luis Leon Sanchez tried to take the peloton by surprise in the last two kilometers, but in disbelieve he saw the yellow jersey Bradley Wiggins rail him back in on the very final meters. Sanchez was obvious annoyed with Wiggins in the heat of the moment but afterwards he apologized on Twitter, saying sorry to the race leader. Maybe Luis Leon Sanchez took a look in the race book and realized it might be a good idea not to make Wiggins an enemy on the road if he wants to get away in the break on Stage 14. The stage is made for Sanchez and I wouldn’t be surprised if him and Voeckler once again found each other side by side in the winning break.

Among the GC contenders it’s no secret that this is a stage where Vincenzo Nibali and Cadel Evans need to attack. Both Nibali and Evans have shown they are not afraid of attacking on the descents and if they can manage to isolate Wiggins just a little bit before that - maybe on the last steep part of Mur de Péguère - we should be in for another dramatic finish!

Winner pick: Luisle Sanchez

Joker: Vincenzo Nibali

Tour Preview - Stage 11

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This could very well be the Queen Stage of this year’s Tour de France. It’s only 148 km but with no less than four nasty climbs on the menu. Col de la Madeleine (Cat HC), Col de la Croix de Fer (Cat HC), Col du Mollard (Cat 2) and finally the last category 1 climb up to La Toussuire. If you aim for the polka dot jersey, this is the stage you need to be in the break. Still I have a feeling it will be one of the GC contenders who ends up winning this prestigious stage.

Favorites:

I know for a fact that especially Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get in the right break tomorrow. The Danish climber knows this is the day to be in front if his dream of the polka dot jersey should come true. Sørensen tried to save as much energy as possible on Stage 10 and we can expect him to attack right from the very bottom of Madeleine. Chris Anker Sørensen also knows what it takes to win in La Toussuire. Back in 2008 he finished an incredible solo ride in front all day by winning the stage in front of Pierrick Fedrigo and Levi Leipheimer - two riders I don’t expect much of on Stage 11 though.  Also Johnny Hoogerland will most likely try to get in the early break but I doubt the Dutchman will be flying since he still seems to be struggling to overcome his knee injury.

La Toussuire. 18 km - 6,1% average.
Click for larger image!

As stated in the beginning I think this will end up with a fight between the race’s best climbers. Team Sky never seemed to panic when Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali attacked on the downhill section, neither when Jurgen Van den Broeck and Pierre Rolland attack over the top of the last climb. Bradley Wiggins knows how strong his team is and unless Evans and Nibali try to attack from far out, I doubt they will ever manage to shake British duo Wiggins and Froome.

I think a group of 10-15 of the GC riders will arrive more or less together at the bottom of La Toussuire and then we will see who have something left in the tank. I’m convinced Lotto-Belisol will try again with Jelle Vanendert and Jurgen Van den Broeck and this time it might work out much better than on Stage 10. I also expect Pierre Rolland to keep on attacking and with the big morale boost due to Voeckler’s (predicted) stage win, Rolland could make it two in a row for Team Europcar.

Yesterday I wrote about Alejandro Valverde and today he showed that his legs are really good. As expected he managed to stay with the favorites at all time and being over 10 minutes after Wiggins in the GC, I think Alejandro Valverde will give a real try on Stage 11.

Winner pick: Pierre Rolland or Jurgen Van den Broeck

Joker: Alejandro Valverde

Tour Preview - Stage 8

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Any riders aiming at the polka dot jersey will have this stage red-circled in their calendar. With 7 categorized climbs on the menu, this is the day you need to hit the right break and collect points. I can’t see any team take control keep it together so let’s have a look at some of the riders able to make the final breakaway.

Favorites:

First name I thought of when I saw this stage profile earlier this was Sylvain Chavanel. This is a typical Chavanel stage and with the shape he has shown so far this season, he is surely one of the big favorites! Sylvain Chavanel came to the Tour stating that he wanted to animate the race again and take the yellow jersey at some point during the race. He tried hard on the first stages but Fabian Cancellara didn’t let it happen. Now the yellow jersey is property of Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins and I doubt they want to spend (waste) the same amount of energy in keeping the jersey this early in the race. Chavanel seems to be in something like the shape of his life and I’m sure he will try to get away and try to take it all in Porrentruy; stage win and yellow jersey. Only thing pointing against it is that Sylvain Chavanel still is fairly close in the GC. After Stage 7 he said that he now wants to keep his place high in the overall standings and with a time trial coming up on Monday he may think it would be wasting powers working in front all day on Sunday.

As said this is a stage for the riders chasing the polka dot jersey and because of that we can’t let out Johnny Hoogerland. His big goal in this Tour is to take revenge and get the jersey and being almost half an hour after Wiggins in the overall classification he’s absolutely no threat what so ever. Hoogerland showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he has taken his climbing to the next level and he needs that on the last three climbs of the stage all with average percentages of 8-9%. Vacansoleil-DCM have a lot of riders who could do well on this stage (especially Rafa Valls and Marco Marcato) but I think Hoogerland will be the most motivated, knowing there are 38 points up for grab in the fight for the polka dot jersey.

Last climb. Top is 15km from the line.

Normally I would have picked out Michael Albasini as an excellent choice for a stage winner but after his effort on Stage 7 I think it’s time for Simon Gerrans to show the GreenEDGE colors. Gerrans had an outstanding start of the season winning Tour Down Under and Milano-San Remo and wanted to do well on Stage 3 but ended up in the side of the road before the race went into its final part. Without a real GC-contender GreenEDGE have giving Albasini, Gerrans and Weening green light to try their own luck in the breakaways and this being a perfect stage for a break to make it, I think Gerrans will be eager to show off his Australian Champion jersey in front of the Tour de France.

I could keep on naming typical breakaway riders like Sandy Casar, Alexander Vinkourov, Thomas Voeckler etc. etc., but that would take all evening. That being said, those three are also excellent picks for a winner in Porrentruy Sunday afternoon!

After Stage 7 Bjarne Riis didn’t hide Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s ambitions for this stage when asked about the tactic: “If they [the peloton] let him go I think we will see Chris [Anker Sørensen] in front again tomorrow”. It’s no secret that Sørensen wants the polka dot jersey but I honestly can’t see him win a sprint in a small group. If Chris Anker Sørensen is going to win Stage 8 it has to be solo, attacking on the last steep climb with its top 15 km from the line.

As you can see it’s almost impossible picking only one rider for a stage like this, but I think I’ll try with the Australian Champion. Second pick will be French.

Winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Joker: Sandy Casar

Tour Preview - Stage 7

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Finally. After a week of sprinting it's time to test the climbing legs. Despite it being the first mountain stage of the Tour it's only categorized as a "hilly" stage, but don't be fooled. It's true there is only one steep climb on the menu, but that is also a very nasty one!

The 5,9 km up to La Planche des Belles Filles have an average of 8,5% with ramps of 11%, 13% and over 20% on the last steep part towards the finishing line. It's a tiny road with the cold mountain wall on one side and trees on the other and without many turns the riders constantly will be able to see each other up the road. Just when you think you've reached the top of the climb and it's flat for about 100 meters you turn right up in the sky hitting the steepest part of the climb with percentages up to 22%. The last 50 meters or so are flat. Not that it will change anything though.

Favorites:

The way I see it there are two scenarios:

1) A break of 6-10 riders gets a good gap and they end up fighting for the stage win while the favorites only focus on each other minutes behind.

2) A break gets away but teams like FDJ (Pinot), Lampre (Scarponi) & Cofidis (Moncoutie/Taaramae) aren't represented up front and start to chase in order to have a crack at in the final. Also Rabobank (Gesink, Mollema & Kruijswijk) could easily take responsibility and chase the break. All ending up with the favorites fighting it out for the stage win and the yellow jersey.

Personally I think the scenario #1 is most likely to happen. Everybody knows that the winner on La Planche des Belles Filles (almost certainly) will take the polka dot jersey (2x10 points) and because of that, we should see guys like Chris Anker Sørensen (+5 min), Johnny Hoogerland (+14 min), Daniel Martin (+19 min), Matt Lloyd (+20 min) & David Moncoutie (+20 min) try their luck. All 5 have said they are aiming for the polka dot jersey and this stage is definitely one they have red-circled from the beginning. Let's hope neither of them get too banged up on yesterday's carnage stage.

After Stage 5 Bjarne Riis said that the man for the weekend is Chris Anker Sørensen and knowing how much the Danish climber wants to show himself and get in the fight for jersey, I will be surprised not to see him up front if a good break gets away. Also David Moncoutie will be eager to get in the break. The final climb is quite similar to Mont Faron - one of Moncoutie's favorite climbs - and the steep parts really suit the French veteran. The weather forecast shows sunny conditions and that is very good news for David Moncoutie who likes it hot and dry.

Steep parts of 13% towards the line.

I mentioned FDJ and Pinot before and that's for a reason. Thibaut Pinot lives nearby and know the way up to La Planche des Belles Filles very well. He has been training a lot on it this year already and said that it is his big dream to win on this climb. 

Looking at the GC favorites this is truly a climb that favors the pure climbers. The ramps of 11%, 13% and 20% comes and go meaning that you constantly have to change the rhythm. Not exactly Bradley Wiggins' cup of tea. For Wiggins it's all about minimizing the gaps and make sure Team Sky set a pace so high no one is able to attack.


Before yesterday's stage I would picked Wout Poels and Pierre Rolland  as solid candidates for the win, but after Poels crashed and withdrew and Rolland crashed and hurt his shoulder and his back, I think I better drop those two again. Still if Rolland is ready, he could really take revenge on this steep climb!

Winner pick: David Moncoutie from a break or Pierre Rolland among the GC riders if he's ready again.

Joker: Thibaut Pinot


For pictures of the final climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles click her!

No luck for Team Saxo Bank

It really doesn't seem like Team Saxo Bank will ever catch a break. In their fight for crucial UCI points they came to Volta Catalunya with a strong team lead by Dani Navarro, Jesus Hernandez and Chris Anker Sørensen. All strong riders for a hilly stage race but apparently nothing goes how it supposed to for the Danish team. Hernandez withdrew early with a muscle injury, Navarro never recovered from his illness and did the same and when Chris Anker Sørensen finally got in the right breakaway and looked to move up in the classification, the race organizers decided to get everybody the same time.

For Team Saxo Bank every UCI point counts if they want to keep their license and naturally they weren't satisfied with the race organizers' decision. After the stage they planned a meeting the next morning to hand in an official complain, but again something got in their way.

Team Saxo Bank bus and team car this morning.
Photo by: Laura Meseguer

As the picture by Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer shows, the snowy conditions didn't allow Team Saxo Bank to get down from the mountain to meet with the race orginazers. Therefore an official complain about yesterday's decision were never given by the Danish team.

The only positive thing for Team Saxo Bank is that Chris Anker Sørensen got the mountain jersey yesterday so at least they have one positive memory from Volta Catalunya. Time will tell if they will get more from the remaining stages.

The one with the rifle shoots!

It's a new world at Team Saxo Bank. Alberto Contador is out until August and that means the Danish team now needs to find another rider ready - and able - to step up and try to fill Contador's shoes. Seems like Mission Impossible right?

And if we stay in this movie-theme, I think a specific scene from Enemy at the Gates actually fits the situation very well. Preparing for battle the Soviet officers are given out one rifle per two men with the second man getting a clip of ammunition.

Handing out the rifles the officer says: "The one without a rifle, follows him with one! When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoots!"

Alberto Contador has been sidelined so now it's time for the second guard to pick up the rifle. Riders like Dani Navarro, Jesus Hernandez, Chris Anker Sørensen and the Polish youngster Rafal Majka, who is set to the team in the Giro, all have potentials to do great things and now it's time to show it.

At Team Saxo Bank they feel the cold wall against their back these days, but that doesn't mean they give up. "We have certain expectations that they [the mentioned riders above] have the class to bring in results", Team Saxo Bank PR-manager Anders Damgaard tells me.

Navarro working hard on the climbs
for  team lader Contador last year.

No one expect a rider like Dani Navarro to win the Tour, of course not, but according to Navarro himself the chances of an overall top10 place isn't that far off. "If I don't have to help out Alberto I could try to go for a top10 spot myself, even though it would be hard", Dani Navarro told feltet.dk back in December last year. Especially the one-week stage races are a good chance for the strong Spaniard to show himself. "If I could get my own chance in those races, I could do top5 or top10", Navarro claims.

So far Dani Navarro already showed his class in Tour Méditerranéen where he ended 3rd overall after a good performance on the mountain stage where he took 2nd after season sensation Jonathan Tiernan-Locke. In the ongoing Paris-Nice, Navarro was in the first group on stage two, but got caught up in the crash. He lost the GC that day, but has been showing good signs, especially in the uphill section,s ever since. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends off with a great performance on Col d'Eze the last stage, even though time trialing isn't one of his strong suits.

Jesus Hernandez is a bit of a mystery. In training he is one of the absolute strongest uphill, just ask Lance Armstrong, but as soon as he gets that race number on, something changes. He is 100% dedicated to his captain, that often being his best friend Alberto Contador, and it seems difficult for him to change focus and try his own luck. Even with Contador sidelined Jesus Hernandez admits that he by instinct still looks for him in the peloton to see how he is and if he needs something.

Jesus Hernandez as always just
next to team mate and friend Contador.

In the past Jesus Hernandez has done top20 in the Vuelta España and the one day he tried to go in a breakaway he managed to take 8th on stage 17 of the Giro d'Italia last year. Jesus Hernandez has the potential of doing big things in the mountains, for himself, and if Bjarne Riis [and Alberto Contador for that matter] can get him to understand that and believe in that, I think he could take home a beautiful mountain stage win in the Tour de France.

Just yesterday Jesus Hernandez came back home from a mini training camp with Alberto Contador, who according to himself is doing better in tests than ever before, and it sounds like Jesus Hernandez is getting in pretty good condition for the up-coming races. "Training with him [Alberto Contador] is harder than the races", he wrote on Twitter.

Chris Anker Sørensen taking his first
Grand Tour stage win in the Giro 2010.

Chris Anker Sørensen has for a long time been a huge talent in the mountains and to be fair he has already taking great stage wins in races like Giro d'Italia and Dauphine Libéré, as well as coming very close in the Vuelta España. Still it never seems to work out for Chris Anker in the Tour de France. Now he has the chance to change that!

At the team presentation last year Chris Anker Sørensen said that he saw himself at the same level as Chris Froome [sensational 2nd overall in the Vuelta España last year] and if he can prove that on the road, the Danish climber could reach new highs this year.

Last up is Rafal Majka. According to Bjarne Riis the team has a plan for the young Polish rider in the Giro this year with hopes of a good place in the overall classification. Last time Riis had a similar plan was when Andy Schleck ended 2nd in the Giro d'Italia. Majka did very well last year in his first pro-season and at the team presentation he said that he think he has good time trial skills as well as strong climbing legs on the long steady climbs. It's difficult to know what to expect from Rafal Majka in the Giro this year, but don't be surprised if this Polish youngster ends up fighting for a spot in the top10.

It's time to pick up the rifle and shoot!

Team Saxo Bank presentation: ”We will have a different focus in 2012”

New logo, new faces, new objectives but the same values. Team Saxo Bank presented today their team for 2012 in Copenhagen with a smiling and laughing Alberto Contador as front figure. From the moment he stepped on the stage, applauded by the audience, Contador was smiling and cracking jokes – a totally different scenario from just a week ago when he was defending himself against the doping charges in CAS.

So what’s new? Well all of you who followed my live tweets (and thanks for that!) already knows about the new logo, which I personally think looks good. Glad to see the eagle back in center again. In the beginning of his welcome speech Bjarne Riis put a lot of effort into explaining that the team would have some new objectives next year. Supposedly it’s not just about Alberto Contador winning the Tour. “We will have a different focus in 2012. We have a young Polish guy (Majka I guess) who we will see how far we can take in the Giro and then we want to build a lead out train for JJ. Haedo”, Bjarne Riis said.

Alberto Contador & Bjarne Riis

The different objectives also reflects in the activities for the up-coming training camp in Israel. “It will be a different program this time”, Riis continues. “We will stay there (in Israel) for two weeks where we will build a cycling school for kids with 2 classes. One Jewish and one Arabic. The plan is that the whole team (riders, managers, staff etc.) will be building this school within 2 days. Later on we will have a Criterium in the heart of Jerusalem. I have convinced the mayor and the police director to close down the center of Jerusalem so I’m really looking forward to seeing that”.

Personally I’m very excited about new idea about building a lead out train around Juan José Haedo. An idea that not even Haedo himself knew about for sure until today. “Actually I heard about it at the same time as you did. We have talked about it, but I didn’t know for sure until Bjarne said it at the presentation”, Haedo confesses and continues; “But of course I’m looking forward to it. It’s a new challenge for me, a step forward in my career. It gives me more confidence but we will have to practice a lot in order to take on the big teams. It’s going to be very interesting”.

Takashi Miyazawa

Another guy I’m looking forward to seeing in 2012 is newcomer Takashi Miyazawa. The Japanese puncheur knows that he is there to help his teammates but he is also a very aggressive type of rider who can both attack and sprint. So don’t be surprised to see him in the front when he gets the chance. You can follow Miyazawa on twitter at @Bravotakashi and I hope my mission on making him tweet in English and Italian will succeed! So far it has only been in Japanese… “Because I’m very famous back in Japan, but now I will try to be more international”, Miyazawa tells.

Biggest Danish name on the team this year is once again Chris Anker Sørensen, whose primary goal next year is “to win races”. As he explains: “I didn’t win anything this year and the Tour didn’t work out as we had hoped for either, so I really hope 2012 will be better. It would be amazing for me to take Alberto all the way to the Tour win on Champs-Élysées but of course I also want to win my own races. This year Christopher Froome ended 2nd in the Vuelta and he is rider on my level, so I just have to be ready to take the chance when it’s there”.

Well, that’s basically it for the team presentation. No breaking news or anything near that, but without a doubt a lot of hope for 2012 and for the training camp in Israel. Thanks for reading.