Vuelta a España: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

Katusha did exactly what we expected on stage 9 and Dani Moreno showed how strong he is right now. Nicolas Roche lost the Red Jersey by one second to Moreno and it will be interesting to see who will lead the race after Monday’s extremely tough day in the mountains.

Stage 10 is the last day to overcome before the first rest day of the race. On paper, this is a good stage for a breakaway to make it but it has to be a break of very strong riders. The first 74 km don’t include any categorized climbs but there are several long hills which will make for a hard start of this stage. Everybody knows the breakaway has a chance today and therefore we can expect a fast start with many attacks.

Alto de Monachil. 8.5 km / 7.7 % avg.

The first part of the stage is tough but it’s nothing compared to the final 36 km. Alto de Monachil starts after 150 km in the saddle. The 8.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of 7.7 % and the first four kilometers are very steep. There are just 27.8 to go from the top of Alto de Monachil and after a descent, which is not easy at all, Alto de Hazallanas starts right away.

The first 5 kilometers have an average gradient of 5 %. The following 3-4 km are more or less flat and after a descent through Güéjar Sierra, the actually climb begins. The final 7 km kick up with 8.5 % and there are numerous parts of over 15 %. With two kilometers to go the gradients almost reach 20 % and this will be a perfect place for the pure climbers to put in a strong attack. The final km is not very steep and the stage actually ends with a little descent towards the line.

So far Dani Moreno has been the strongest rider uphill in the race and it’ difficult to see him losing the Red Jersey. However, the time differences between the first five are still very small. Horner, in fifth place, is only 28 seconds behind Moreno. It’s now up to Katusha to control the race and I’m personally looking forward to see when/if Purito attacks. He doesn’t seem to be on top of his game right now but he needs to take back time on Nibali and the other GC riders. The steep gradients suit Purito perfectly and even if he can’t drop his rivals, he can lead the way for Dani Moreno to attack in the final and extend his lead.

Compared to the steady uphill finish on Saturday, this final climb doesn’t suit Ivan Basso very well. The Cannondale captain is without a doubt in great shape right now but the constant change of rhythm is not good for Basso. That being said, if Basso shows the same strength as the other day, he won’t lose much time to guys like Moreno, Purito and Valverde.

Especially Alejandro Valverde will be interesting to follow on the final climb. I expect Movistar to put a rider in the morning breakaway and by that make Katusha do all the work in the peloton. Valverde hesitated a bit when Dani Moreno attacked on stage 9 but he still showed good legs by taking second place. In the last couple of uphill finishes, Valverde and Purito have waited until the final 500 meters by attacking their rivals. If they attack a bit earlier on Hazallanas, they could really take some time. Also, if the peloton catches the breakaway, it will be difficult to beat Valverde in a finish like this one.

Alto de Hazallanas. 15.8 km / 5 % avg.

Chris Horner had big hopes for Saturday’s uphill finish but after a couple of strong attacks, he couldn’t respond when Roche, Basso and Moreno went away. Horner likes it steep but not on a short distance as in Valdepeñas de Jaén. Alto de Hazallanas is a perfect climb for the American veteran and I’m sure he will try to take back the Red Jersey.

On paper, Astana has one of the strongest teams in this year’s Vuelta. However, Vincenzo Nibali was very isolated the other day. Only Tanel Kangert was with him in the end and right now, it doesn’t seem like Nibali is on the same level as Dani Moreno and Nicolas Roche. It may come later in the race, I’m sure it does, but he still has work to do. His teammate Jakob Fuglsang has deliberately lost one minute after the other in order to drop out of the overall classification. Fuglsang aims at winning a stage after missing out in Dauphiné and in the Tour earlier this year. As pointed out, this is a good day for a breakaway and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jakob Fuglsang in the break. Fuglsang is eager to win and he needs to take advantage of his post-Tour shape before it’s too late. If you’re looking for a joker for the stage win, I’ll suggest the Danish climber.

The final climb is also suiting riders like Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Sergio Henao and Leopold König very well. König has already shown his strength and even though I doubt he wins this stage, he should be able to stay near the favorites. Sergio Henao is 3:28 min after in the overall classification and even though there is still a long way to Madrid, he soon needs to start taking back time. Henao is a great climber and if he has the legs to do it, he should attack early on the final 7 kilometers. Pozzovivo started out this Vuelta aiming for top5 overall but he too has some ground to make up. The pint-sized Italian is not afraid of attacking from a far and this climb is pretty much perfect for him. If the other GC riders start looking at each other, I’m sure Pozzovivo will try to sneak away.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 10, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tour de France: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

The Tour continues in Bretagne with a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. The riders start out in Saint-Gildas-Des-Bois and finish in Saint-Malo 197 km later. It’s the flat stage but the terrain is still up and down all day long. In the end, anything but a bunch sprint will be a huge surprise.

The Route

There is not much to say about the route. This is a typical transition stage made for the sprinters and with just one small category 4 climb, nobody should get dropped today. The only interesting factor is the wind. The last 25 km take place alongside the coast and we could see a strong crosswind splitting the peloton near the end. None of the GC rider want to lose any more time before Wednesday’s time trial and everybody wants to stay in front. This should make for another nervous finish and luckily the route isn’t very technical.

The Finish

Without a single corner the last 5 km, this is a perfect stage for the big power sprinters like Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. Most likely, the final kilometers will be with a strong tail wind to keep the speed high and that means the leadout trains will decide the winner. The road bend slightly to the left with about 100 meters to go and naturally, you need to take the inner lane in order to win.

The Favorites

The final 5 km of Stage 10. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol have the two best leadout trains in the race and in a high-speed sprint, it’s very important to take the final lead. Both Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are close to impossible to pass when they get to launch their sprint in high speed behind their leadout. Therefore, if Lotto-Belisol get the front; Greipel will most likely win and if Argos-Shimano get the front; Kittel should take the stage.

Lotto-Belisol timed it perfectly the last time and nobody could get even close to Andre Greipel. Greg Henderson is one of the best, if not the best, leadout rider in the world right now and if he gets to deliver Andre Greipel with 250 meters to go, I doubt anybody will be able to pass him.

A tail wind sprint does however favor the riders willing to take a chance. Few - if any - can match Mark Cavendish’ kick in the final and if Cavendish ends up without a leadout, he needs to open the sprint early. Mark Cavendish is so strong on the first meters that he can jump clear of another team’s leadout train and with a tail wind finish, he will be very difficult to catch, even for Greipel and Kittel.

It’s maybe too easy just to say that either Cavendish, Greipel or Kittel will win. Still, it all comes down to the final leadout. I think Argos-Shimano are eager to show the world the real strength of their leadout train and therefore I’ll pick Marcel Kittel to win Stage 10.

The Joker

This stage is going to end with a bunch sprint but at this point, we already know all the candidates. Picking a joker is therefore not very easy. The only rider I can think of fitting this category is Julien Simon. The French semi-sprinter (sorry Julien) did very well on Corsica but hasn’t been feeling great lately. Still, this stage takes place on his training routes and on home soil - in front of his family - Simon will be extra motivated to perform. Also, Julien Simon’s team, Sojasun, has its roots in Bretagne. A morning breakaway without a rider from the local French team will be just as surprisingly as this stage not ending in bunch sprint.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Julien Simon (or any Sojasun rider…)

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 10:

Vuelta Preview - Stage 10

I guess it won’t come as a chock for you but I had Ben Swift put down for this stage on my pre-Vuelta stage winner paper. A lot have changed in the first 9 days though and I must admit that my statement about Swifty being the fastest guy in the race hasn’t really been as accurate as expected. That being said, don’t be surprised if he ends up winning in Sanxenxo!

It’s a classic transition stage getting to the mountains and even though it’s alongside the sea with a good chance of cross wind I think it’s safe to say it will end up in a bunch sprint. The last kilometer kicks a little bit uphill but not more than a few percentages and it seems perfect for John Degenkolb to take his 4^th stage win in this Vuelta España. Argos-Shimano have been outstanding in their way of setting up Degenkolb in the finals - even when Team Sky seemed to have gotten the better of them on the Motorbike circuit - and it will take something very special to beat Degenkolb this time.

Picking a joker for a stage like this is nearly impossible. A joker should be a guy no one expects winning (Swift?...) but in a sprint like this it will be the same 4-5 names we have already seen in action. I have to pick one so I’ll try Lloyd Mondory. The French sprinter is always up there around top10 and I have a feeling it won’t take long before he gets into Top3. He surprised me on Sunday’s stage in Barcelona where he managed to hang on to the front over Montjuic and took 15^th place and according to Mondory himself he feels better and better every day. I doubt he can beat Degekolb but if the cross wind splits up the peloton and Mondory manages to stay in front I think he could have a decent chance of top3 – which in this case you give me some much needed points in my duel with Felix!

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Thomas Dekker

Explanation: The stage is likely to end in a bunch sprint and there's no evidence to suggest that anyone is good enough to beat Degenkolb and his Argos Shimano train in that kind of finish. Ben Swift's performances have been so off-key that I was almost tempted to throw him in as my joker - although Mikkel probably wouldn't have allowed that one (he clearly has a soft spot for Swift, having stuck with him on three - three! - occasions so far). Given the early Cat.3 climb, the likely crosswinds coming off the Galician coast and the prospect of Wednesday's time trial, a break could well stay out. Thomas Dekker, riding his first major tour since coming back from suspension, has been quiet so far. This could be the chance to remind the world of his talent.

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 10

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At first this may look like a typical breakaway stage half way through the Tour de France, but after Monday’s time trial a lot of riders now need to attack Team Sky if they want to get on the podium. That means that even though a strong break might get away, it’s not very unlikely that Evans, Nibali, Van den Broeck etc. will try something on Col du Grand Colombier (Category HC, 17,4 km with 7,1%). Well, let’s hope they will!

Favorites:

Anyway. Let’s say a break makes it to the line, who would be in it? It’s not really a stage for the polka dot jersey hunters like Chris Anker Sørensen and David Moncoutie. Well you can get 20 points on Grand Colombier, but not a lot on other climbs, so it’s definitely much more clever to save some energy and give a real go on stages like tomorrow with three times as many points on the menu. Another thing against David Moncoutie is that with Remy De Gregorio out of the race, Moncoutie is now the only Cofidis rider able to stay with Rein Taaramae in the mountains. This could end his dreams for the jersey the way I see it.

Col du Grand Colombier - Top with 40 km to go.

Instead I think guys like Luis León Sanchez, Thomas Voeckler and Sandy Casar will be the main riders to watch in order to catch the right break on Stage 10. All three are some of the very best at getting in the breaks and finish it off with stage win and all three have been showing to very promising signs the last couple of days, including their time trial on Monday.

Another guy this finish is almost tailor made for is Alejandro Valverde. Tons of bad luck has sent him out of the GC fight for good and therefore he can now focus on getting a stage win. He is 10,46 minutes after Bradley Wiggins in the overall classification and even though nobody will allow him to get away with 5 minutes or so he still have very good chances the way I see it. Valverde should be strong enough to stay with the favorites on the climbs and if it comes back together he will also be the fastest on the line - no doubt about that. He could also put a team mate in the early break and then try to attack in the middle of the stage. Team Sky won’t waste any unnecessary energy on pulling back a rider 10 minutes down and with help from a team mate Alejandro Valverde could make a big number on this stage. Valverde knows he has nothing left to do in the GC so he will be almost desperate to get away with a least a stage win from this Tour.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Thomas Voeckler

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 10

Gianni Savio explains:

This is a very dangerous stage. All the GC-riders must pay attention because you can easily lose some seconds in the end. In Assisi I expect a war between the big riders. It depends on the results but I think that Ryder Hesjedal will keep thjey Pink Jersey. The last kilometers are very hard though and there are no doubts about who the favorite is. 

Purito Rodriguez is the man to beat. Michele Scarponi is also a good rider for this kind of stage, but Purito is the man who can make the difference on the last km. Our tactic will be to stay alert in the front of the peloton and try something with Fabio Felline in the end. Or maybe with José Rujano. You can say it like this; Purito is “sure”, Felline is “maybe”. 

You can read Gianni Savio's view of the 1st week of Giro d'Italia by clicking here.