Giro d'Italia: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

For the third day in a row, we have an undulating stage ahead of us. It’s another stage of more than 200 km and like the previous two, the first long stretch is flat before two climbs near the finish. The first one, Montescaglioso is only a category 4 climb but its 4.5 km with an average gradient of 5,6% - and parts of 10% - will thin out the peloton before the final.

In 2003, Marco Pantani attacked on Montescaglioso but despite a strong effort from the Italian legend, which made most of the sprinters lose ground, it all ended up in a bunch sprint. The profile of this stage looks a lot like the one the Giro organizers used 10 years ago and don’t be surprised if it ends in another sprint despite the hilly finish.

The final climb isn’t very steep and strong sprinters with a bit of climbing legs like Degenkolb, Ventoso and Goss should put their teams in front and try to drop some of the pure sprinters. The climb ends with 4.8 km to go and from here on it’s straight out with a bit of descending before the last kilometer kicks up with 2.8% all the way to the line. GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano both saved energy on Stage 4 for this stage and this could very well end up with a fight between Goss and Degenkolb.

This is also a great finish for riders like Pozzato, Felline, Gatto and Battaglin. Originally, I had Enrico Battaglin down for a “joker” spot on this stage but after his impressive win on Stage 4, I doubt he can be considered a joker anymore. These kind of climbs aren’t too tough for the young Italian and everybody saw how fast he is on the line Tuesday afternoon. Teammate Sacha Modolo might fancy this stage too and together with Battaglin, Bardiani really have a very strong duo for Stage 5.

The way I see it, the final climb isn’t hard enough for the favorites to test each other and with only a few sprint stages this year, the sprinters’ teams should be able to keep it together. Quickstep will probably try to take the lead in order to keep a pace Mark Cavendish is comfortable with, but Stage 6 seems like a better option for the Manxman. That being said, of course Cavendish will do everything he can in order to take another stage win as soon as possible. McEwen crossed the line first back in 2003 and if Cavendish can get back to the peloton after Montescaglioso, he’s the man to beat.

It’s not easy picking a favorite for a stage like this one. A break getting away on the final 10 km could easily make it to the line, but if teams like Movistar and Bardiani don’t have anyone in the break, it will probably end like in 2003. Still, the chances of Movistar being in the break are not bad. Giovanni Visconti is gunning for the Pink Jersey and even though he’s 52 seconds down, a 20 seconds time bonus for winning would bring him close if he gets away from the peloton.

Lampre haven’t had much luck so far in this Giro d’Italia. Roberto Ferrari was caught behind the crash on Stage 1, they had problems staying together in the TTT and then Michele Scarponi crashed on Stage 3. Their luck could change on this stage if Filippo Pozzato has a good day. Pozzato showed great shape in Tour of Turkey and after a disappointing Spring Season, he now has a chance to take revenge.

Favorite: John Degenkolb

Top3 Pick: Francesco Ventoso

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato & Giovanni Visconti

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 5:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

We are only on stage three of this year’s Giro d’Italia, but it’s already time for the opportunistic riders to try their luck. The pure sprinters will have troubles staying up front on the 222 km from Sorrento to Marina di Ascea, especially on the last 80 km with a couple of climbs on the menu.

The first 140 km are relatively flat and a break should have no problems getting clear here. With 77 km to go the first climb, San Mauro Cilento, starts. Its 8 km with an average gradient of 6,5% will make it tough for the sprinters to stay in the peloton. Still, there are about 30 km from the top of San Mauro Cilento until the next climb starts. Sella di Catona stretches over 20 km but is separated by a short descent in the middle. The two uphill sections both have an average gradient of about 4% but the climb does kick up towards the top with parts of 7%. 

There are only 20 km to go from the top of Sella di Catona and if a small group gets away over the top, they won’t be easy to catch. Like the climb, the descent too is split in two, with a short ascent in the middle. The last 8 km are downhill towards the line and strong descenters like Vincenzo Nibali and Samuel Sanchez may want to test Team Sky and try to gain a few seconds. Especially Samuel Sanchez must be eager to take back some time after Euskaltel got their TTT ruined by a punture with 1,5 km to go on Sunday. Don't be surprised if Sanchez attacks on the final 8 km towards the line. 

Also, the last kilometer is very tricky. Coming down from the climb, there is a viaduct leading directly into a roundabout and this will stretch out the peloton a lot. After that there is a 90° left turn with just 400 meters to go. It won't be easy to gain positions on the descent, so you need to be among the first riders over the last top if you want to win this stage.

I think many of the pure sprinters like Chicchi, Viviani & Cavendish will have troubles on final hilly 80 km of the stage. Teams like GreenEdge and FDJ should try to set a high pace to thin out the competition for Goss and Bouhanni. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it to the line. The stage profile reminds me of the stage Angel Vicioso won in 2011 when a small group got away over the top of the last climb before the downhill finish. Vicioso is in the race again this year and he seems to be in great shape right now. He’s definitely a rider to look out for in the final. The same goes for aggressive riders like Giovanni Visconti and Filippo Pozzato. Visconti took the KOM jersey on stage 1 and I’m sure he will be keen to hang on to it for a while. The former Italian champion is a real specialist on these kind of finishes and he can’t be given too much of a gap towards the end. Also, Giovanni Visconti is only 9 seconds after Salvatore Puccio in the overall classification, so a stage win will put him in Maglia Rosa!

Another rider this stage finish is perfect for is Fabio Felline. The young Italian has a huge potential. He’s getting stronger every year and he won’t have any problems on these kind of climbs. Furthermore, Felline is very fast on the line. He’s not a sprinter, but he in a group of 40-50 riders, there aren’t many who can beat him. The way I see it, Fabio Felline should be named as one of the favorites for this stage. He can both attack in the end and win a sprint in a reduced group. On Stage 1 Felline punctured in the final and in team time trial he had to change bike. If he can avoid more bad luck, I think Felline will be close to Top3 no matter how this stage evolves.

Personally, I would like to see Marco Marcato and Oscar Gatto try something on this stage. Marcato came out of the Ardennes Classics in great shape and he’s now eager to get his first win of the season in his debut Giro d’Italia. Marco Marcato has his eyes on a different stage in this race - more on that when time - but with his fast finish and strength on the hills, this stage too seems very good for him.

Last year Oscar Gatto arrived to the Giro a bit tired after a strong season start, but this year he seems to have timed it differently. As mentioned earlier, I doubt Chicchi can make it over the climbs so Vini-Fantini have to put their faith in other riders. Luckily for them, they bring a whole team of riders for these kind of stages. Di Luca, Rabottini, Taborre, Garzelli and Gatto all have the abilities to win on a finish like this but I think Gatto is their best card to play. He’s aggressive, good on the hills and very fast on the line.

As you probably gather from this Preview, it’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this. It sure looks like a stage for a breakaway, but both Nacer Bouhanni and Matt Goss have the strength to make it over the climbs and therefore I guess one of those must the favorite. I pick the French champion.

Favorite: Nacer Bouhanni

Top3 pick: Fabio Felline

Jokers: Giovanni Visconti / Marco Marcato

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 3:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Milano - San Remo: Preview and Favorites

The added s on 'favorites' in the title may be stretching it a bit, because there is only one true favorite for this race; Peter Sagan. Yes, there are many riders with a good chance of a great result, but there is only one top favorite.

Matt Goss won Milano - San Remo in 2011 and last year his fellow countryman Simon Gerrans crossed the line first. Both are in the race again Sunday, but don’t be surprised if a third Australian ends as best rider from Down Under this time - more on that later.

The last two years, we have seen a break on Poggio make it to the end and each time with Fabian Cancellara taking second place. Last year Cancellara, singlehandedly, made sure the break of three didn’t get caught, but normally you need a group of minimum 5-6 riders in order to stay clear. It also depends on the wind. Naturally, a strong head wind minimizes a break’s chances of winning the race. Regardless of the wind, we will see a lot of movement on Poggio though. Every rider without a fast finish wants to get clear of the bunch and with Peter Sagan in such good shape; even fast guys like Filippo Pozzato and Phillipe Gilbert don’t want to take their chances.

Normally the strong riders’ teams set a high pace on the climbs in order to drop the pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, but knowing Peter Sagan can stay with the best uphill and still win in a sprint, they now need to attack as well. I think this will eliminate the sprinters’ chances this year and I will be very surprised to see a pure sprinter take the win on Sunday.

The big question is how Sagan will do the race. Will he go with the attacks on Poggio or gamble and wait for a sprint in a reduced peloton? Personally, I don’t think Sagan will respond until very near the top of Poggio. He is one of the best on the descents and even if he’s a few seconds behind on the top, he can still join the break on the descent. Of course, Sagan will only attack if it’s a group of strong contenders up front or if some of the other candidates like Gilbert or Pozzato attack near the top.

The final 30 km of Milano - San Remo includes the two climbs Cipressa and Poggio. 

It’s difficult to paint a scenario but I would like to give a go anyway. I’m not saying this is how is going to go down Sunday afternoon, but it might be. If nothing else, you’ll now have someone to point your finger at for being wrong. Here we go:

Update: When I wrote this preview last Monday, Rinaldo Nocentini was still expected to start. He has now decided to skip Milano - San Remo and target Volta Catalunya instead. Therefore, replace his name with Andrey Amador, when you read the following:

Yoann Offredo attacks early on Poggio. Rinaldo Nocentini catches up with him. Later in-shape Mauro Santambrogio puts in a strong attack and joins the duo. The three riders cross the top of Poggio first but right behind them are Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert and Filippo Pozzato. The chasing trio catch the break on the descent and the six guys get a gap of about 20 seconds. Everybody is looking at Sagan, hesitating to work and Offredo gives it another go. Nocentini closes the gap. Gilbert attacks, Sagan after him. The break is back together; time for the sprint. Gilbert opens, but Sagan wins. Pozzato takes second place and Gilbert third. The rest of the peloton cross the line 15-20 seconds down and Heinrich Haussler wins the sprint - there’s your Australian. This little scenario leaves us with the following top10:

1. Peter Sagan

2. Filippo Pozzato

3. Philippe Gilbert

4. Rinaldo Nocentini Andrey Amador

5. Mauro Santambrogio

6. Yoann Offredo

---

7. Heinrich Haussler

8. Thor Hushovd

9. Gerald Ciolek

10. Daniele Bennati

Of course, there are tons of different scenarios but if I had to pick one, that would be it. There a lot of riders able to do something great in this race, but there can only be one winner. Vincenzo Nibali, Fabian Cancellara and Matt Goss all seem to be in very good shape right now, but I keep on coming back to Peter Sagan when I think of a favorite.

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Podium: Filippo Pozzato / Phillipe Gilbert

Jokers: Mauro Santambrogio / Rinaldo Nocentini / Yoann Offredo

For live coverage of the race check out steephill.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad: Favorites & Jokers

Sep Vanmarcke surprised many last year when he outsprinted Tom Boonen for the win and I wouldn’t be surprised if another outsider takes the win this time. Most of all because they aren’t any top top favorites on the start list. Tom Boonen is here, yes, but not in the shape he would have liked to be in, and therefore we have to look to Terpstra and Chavanel to find the team leaders of Quickstep this Saturday. 

Niki Terpstra has shown to be very strong right now and he is not afraid of attacking. If the weather conditions blow the race apart early my pick for winner will be Terpstra. It does require he attacks and gets away alone though. Despite not being slow on the line, I simply can’t see him beat other candidates like Jurgen Roelandts, Greg Van Avermaet or Filippo Pozzato in a sprint.

In this very moment, my own personal favorite is Filippo Pozzato. I think he will have a great spring season this year, winning a least one of the big classics. Last year he waited too long in Ronde van Vlaanderen and made a horrible tactical mistake in Paris-Roubaix - I doubt he will fail like that again. Pippo showed in Trofeo Laigueglia that he is in great shape already and being fast on the line and strong on the hills, it be very difficult to drop him.

Greg Van Avermaet too is very fast on the line - even faster than Pozzato - and he must be named as one of the favorites. The reason why he isn’t my first pick is because of the strong team BMC send to the race. With Hushovd, Oss, Phinney, Blythe and in-form Schar in addition to Van Avermaet, the chances of one of those getting into the final break and therefore not pulling for a sprint is quite high. I would imagine BMC have Van Avermaet set as their designated leader, but everything can happen in these races.

I think it will be an advantage only to have one captain this Saturday and that’s why I also name Jurgen Roelandts among the best winner candidates. Roelandts was very strong in Tour Méditerranéen and being the only team leader on Lotto-Belisol - who are winning as they please this season - I would be surprised not to see him in front on Saturday. He finished last season in a very strong way and this could be his chance finally to breakthrough in the classics. Roelandts is very fast and the way he won the stage to Grasse in Tour Med really showed he is one to take seriously for this race and the up-coming classics.

Other strong candidates for the win are Lars Boom and Juan-Antonio Flecha but like Terpstra these two need to get away alone or in a group without sprinters in order to win.

As always, I have a couple of jokers for you too and the first one is no stranger if you regularly visit this site. Oscar Gatto got a little breakthrough last year with strong attacks but the best has yet to come. Being the sole captain of Vini-Fantini in the classics, the responsibility is naturally bigger now and I think Gatto will prove to be worthy of it. Gatto is very fast on the line and very difficult to drop on the hills. He is not afraid to take initiative and attack from a far and with Strade Bianche coming up soon, this would be an excellent opportunity for Gatto to build some self-confidence and show he is rider to look out for in the Spring Classics this season.

My second joker is Zdenek Stybar. Few riders can match Stybar’s shape right now - thanks to cyclocross in the winter - and even though he is very inexperienced in these kind of races, he sure has the power to fight for the win. Stybar is good on these hills and fast too should it come to a sprint. As already mentioned, Quickstep have a lot of riders to play out this Saturday, but don’t be surprised if Stybar ends up being their man for the win.

For a super joker look to Martin Elmiger. The Swiss veteran has had a great start of the season for the new IAM Cycling team and even though Heinrich Haussler is the team captain here, I’m sure Elmiger will put in at least a couple of attacks. I will expect him to get into the big break of the day and that could very well prove to be important if the race splits up early. Elmiger is very strong and on a good day not too slow in a sprint either. I will be a big surprise should he take the win, but under the right circumstances he might just surprise and get on the podium.

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Pozzato - Roelandts - Van Avermaet

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Boom - Flecha - Terpstra

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Gatto - Stybar - Elmiger