The Route
With its
228.5 km this is the longest stage of the Tour so far. Going west towards
Marseille, the riders start climbing right away on Côte de Châteauneuf-Grasse.
The climb is only 1.4 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.4 %. Many
riders will be eager to get away and this is the perfect place to do so.
The two
top sprinters of the race Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel are yet to compete
in a bunch sprint in this Tour and Omega Pharma Quickstep and Lotto-Belisol
will have to control the race. Peter Sagan is also out for revenge after
finishing second twice already and his Cannondale team should help out too.
The last
categorized climb has its top with just 20 km to go. On Corsica, the late
climbs proved to be too much for the sprinters but it shouldn’t be case this time.
The 5.7 km towards the top of Côte des Bastides kick up with 3.1 % and
Cavendish and especially Greipel should be able to stay in the bunch.
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| The final 4 km towards the finishing line. |
The Finish
According
to ASO Côte des Bastides was the last climb worth categorizing on this stage. However,
the riders still have to overcome Col de la Gineste. The 7 km towards the top
aren’t steep but if some sprinters had troubles on Côte des Bastides, they will
have big problems getting back into the peloton in time for the final sprint.
The view from the top of Côte des Bastides over the Mediterranean Sea is
spectacular and the riders can almost see the finishing line 12.5 km ahead. The
descent is much steeper than the ascent of the climb and this should make for a
fast finish.
The
riders enters Marseille with about 6 km to go and continue on big roads all the
way to the line. Coming down Avenue du Prado towards the sea, the riders pass
the last km port before turning left on Avenue Pierre Mendès France with just
500 meters to go. It’s not a very difficult corner but it will stretch out the
peloton. Therefore, it’s important to be among the first five or six riders in
order to win the stage. Like the view from the top of Col de la Gineste, also
the final 500 meters are breathtaking with the hills in the background and the Mediterranean
Sea on the right side. So far ASO have really spoiled us with post card scenery
in this 100th edition of the Tour de France.
The Favorites
With
everybody on 100 %, I would pick Mark Cavendish as the favorite. Unfortunately,
that’s not the case. Cavendish started out the Tour with bronchitis and even
though he’s feeling better, he hasn’t been great so far. Another good candidate
for this stage is Peter Sagan. He will have no problems with the climbs but the
crash on Stage 1 has weakened him. He barely managed to keep Michal Kwiatkowski
behind him on Stage 2 and came up short against Simon Gerrans on Stage 3. Sagan’s
team hasn’t been good enough so far and even though it’s hard to bet against
him, I don’t see Sagan as the big favorite for this stage.
Instead,
my favorite is Andre Greipel. The German Champion came to the Tour in great
shape but hasn’t been able to show it yet. He couldn’t keep up with the front
group on Stage 2 but he came close to bridge the gap. On Stage 3 he quickly realized
it wasn’t going to happen and I think he saved a little energy being dropped
early on. Many don’t think Andre Greipel is good on the hills but he’s actually
not bad at all. In Tour of Turkey he won Stage 4 despite a long climb near the
finish and he has won uphill sprints in the past too. The hills today are not
steep at all and Lotto-Belisol showed on the TTT that they are very strong.
Both Greipel and Cavendish are behind in the fight for the Green Jersey and
they can’t let this opportunity go to waste. Orica-GreenEdge will work hard in
order to keep the Yellow Jersey and this should come down to a bunch sprint.
The Jokers
One of
the strongest riders so far in this Tour de France has been Juan-Antonio
Flecha. He has been attacking almost every day and I would be surprised not to
see him try again soon. Vacansoleil-DCM are still without sponsors for next
season and the riders are eager to show themselves and help the team get seen
on TV. As I’ve said, it won’t be easy for a breakaway to make it on this stage.
The sprinters’ teams want control the race and a morning breakaway seems
doomed.
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| The view from the top of Col de la Gineste over the sea. |
However,
a late attack in the final may be the right choice. Normally I wouldn’t pick
Flecha for an uphill attack but he showed on Stage 2 that his legs are great
and that he’s climbing just fine. Flecha is fast on the line and should he
manage to get away over the top of Col de la Gineste, the peloton will have to
work hard in order to catch him. The wind is in favor of the peloton though.
The final 12 km take place in a strong head / cross wind and that makes it hard
to maintain a gap. Especially the last 2 km on Avenue Pierre Mendès will be
extremely hard alone against the pack.
On the
topic of jokers, look out for Julien Simon as well. The French sprinter was furious after Stage 3
when Rojas blocked his way. According to Simon he had the legs to win the stage
and he will be eager to demonstrate that in Marseille. His team mate Julien El
Fares is another candidate. I’ve already mentioned El Fares earlier in the Tour
and this is a stage he has marked in his road book. He comes from the area and his family and friends will be out cheering for him. However, in order for El
Fares to succeed he needs to attack from a far. If he’s not up the road
already, the Frenchmen will have to work hard for teammate Julien Simon in the
final sprint.
Favorite: Andre Greipel
Jokers: Juan-Antonio Flecha / Julien SimonFor live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.
