Critérium du Dauphiné 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Critérium du Dauphiné 2013

There is now less than a month to the start of this year’s Tour de France and that means it’s the last time to test your legs against your rivals’ in competition. Most of the big Tour favorites will be in Critérium du Dauphiné this year and with a very hilly course, we should be in for a good show the next eight days.

Compared to last year’s edition, this one is much more about climbing than time trialing. It’s true there is a 32.5 km long time trial on stage four but the race won’t be won or lost here, that will happen in the final four days in the Alps with three uphill finishes.

Looking at the field, two riders stand out as the main favorites; Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. Froome has been outstanding in all the stage races he has ridden since February, while Contador only has been focusing on the Tour and therefore haven’t performed as well as the previous years. Contador normally never peaks in Dauphine but with a different season plan, we should to see him stronger at this point than usually. Last year Bradley Wiggins won Dauphiné before winning the Tour overall and I think Chris Froome will be eager to repeat his teammate’s performance this time. Froome can count on excellent support from Richie Porte - another GC contender - Vasil Kiryienka, David Lopez and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

I see Chris Froome and Alberto Contador a level above the rest in this race but its clear they are both not in tip-top condition yet and it wouldn’t be the first time an outsider won Dauphiné. There are a lot of good riders in the race this year to give you a better overview, I have the divided the favorites in to the following categories:

Strong winner candidates: Chris Froome & Alberto Contador

Strong podium contenders: Samuel Sanchez, Richie Porte & Andrew Talansky

Top5 contenders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde, Damiano Cunego & Jurgen van den Broeck.

Outside of these three categories we’ll find riders like; Sylvain Chavanel, Jakob Fuglsang, Wout Poels, Laurens Ten Dam, Pierre Rolland, Michal Kwiatkowski etc. etc.

Personally, I expect a lot from Samuel Sanchez. For the first time in many years, he failed to deliver in a Grand Tour when he only ended 12^th overall in the Giro d’Italia. He came close to a stage win on the hilly time trial but he wasn’t as strong as expected in the last week. The last couple of years we’ve seen riders with failed Giro expectations rise and win in Dauphiné and I think Samu will do just that. In 2011, Purito used his good shape from the Giro to win two stages and last year his teammate Dani Moreno did the same. I see many good stages for Samuel Sanchez in this year’s Dauphiné and I would be surprised not to see him win at least one of them.

Remember, there are no bonus seconds on the line in Critérium du Dauphiné this year so the climbers really need to distance their rivals when ever they can if they lose too much time in the time trial.

Many of you have been asking about stage previews for Dauphiné and I’m happy to announce that there will be daily previews during the race. Just like earlier this year, I’ve teamed up with INRNG to deliver daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. INRGN will be writing for Dauphiné and I will be doing the Tour de Suisse previews. First one should be online Saturday evening.

For live race coverage, check out steephill.tv

Criterium International: Preview and Favorites

If Paris-Nice is a mini Tour de France, this race is a mini-mini Tour de France. We have a sprint stage, a time trial and an uphill finish, and it’s all within two days.

The first stage is a same one as last year - hopefully without all the crashes in the final - but the following time trial is a little bit different. It has more turns, it’s 500 meters longer and final km is the same one as on stage 1. The time differences won’t be big and even though you lose 10 seconds here, you still have a chance of getting it back on Sunday’s big mountain stage. Especially because there are 10 bonus seconds to the winner on Col de l’Ospedale.

Last year, the final stage had a tough beginning with four climbs within the first 80 km, followed by a long flat section before the final climb. This year, it’s the other way around. The first 50 km are “flat” - it’s always up and down on Corsica - and then we have five categorized climbs on the menu before Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%).

Team Sky bring a very strong team to the race and there is no doubt about who the big favorite is. Chris Froome missed out on the overall win in Tirreno-Adriatico and without Alberto Contador (who is out due a flu), Froome now has the perfect opportunity to take revenge. Criterium International will also be Chris Froome’s first race after his engagement to Michelle Cound, and what better way of celebrating than an win? 

To help him achieve this, Froome can count on support from Paris-Nice winner Richie Porte and in-form Vasil Kiryienka and Kanstantin Siutsou. Youngester Joshua Edmondson (7^th on the mountain stage in Volta Algarve) is also here to help Froome. I think that Team Sky will start their mountain train on stage 3 and - as usually - simply wait for the other riders to drop out the back one by one. The steepest part of Col de l’Ospedale is with 2 km to go and this would be a perfect place for Chris Froome to put in a strong attack and take time on his rivals. Pretty much like Richie Porte did in Paris-Nice.

The final stage of Criterium International ending on Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%). 

Looking at the other contenders for the general classification, BMC have two riders with a good chance of a podium spot; Tejay van Garderen and last year’s winner Cadel Evans. TJ was strong in Paris-Nice (ended 4^th overall) and has set Criterium International as his next target. Cadel Evans wasn’t really on top of his game in Tirreno-Adriatico but he showed in Tour of Oman that he is already very strong. BMC will probably try to get a good overall result with both TJ and Evans, but I think Evans is their best shot. Also, whoever ends up in a supporting role here, will have some goodwill for the Tour de France, when BMC have to pick a designated leader.

Update: Cadel Evans has now told letour.fr that TJ is the team leader for BMC in this race. Therefore, expect TJ to take podium instead of Evans. 

Like TJ, also Andrew Talansky and Jean-Christophe Peraud did very well in Paris-Nice (ending 2^nd and 3^rd overall), and with a time trial and a mountain stage, both should be up there again in Criterium International. Especially Talansky will be eager to take revenge after a poor tactical decision on La Montagne de Lure cost him the chance of winning overall.

My personal outsider is Rein Taaramae. He was originally set to peak in Paris-Nice, but got sick in February and decided to work for Dani Navarro instead. Now Taaramae is showing promising shape and after his 3^rd place in Cholet - Pays De Loire last Sunday, he’s now ready to take on Froome and the other favorites in Criterium International. Taaramae is strong against the clock and Col de l’Ospedale should suit him just fine too. He has Jerome Coppel to help him and I would be very surprised not see Taaramae in the overall top10 when the race is over.

Winner pick: Chris Froome
Podium pick: Cadel Evans Tejay van Garderen

Joker: Rein Taaramae

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Paris-Nice: Favorites & Jokers

Right after the three Grand Tours we find Paris-Nice when we talk about the toughest races of the year. It’s still very early and eight days of cold weather, heavy wind and difficult climbs make it a hard race to win. 

Last year Bradley Wiggins came as the big favorite and won. This year it’s very open! Looking at the start list, I see at least four riders with an equal chance of winning. Let’s take a look at them.

Tejay van Garderen has already shown good shape in San Luis and despite the last time trial being on Col d’Eze and not a flat one, I would be very surprised not to see the young American on the final podium. BMC have a strong team of riders to protect TJ on the flat - and windy - stages and according to TJ himself he’s climbing very well these days. It will be difficult for TJ to stay with the pure climbers like Robert Gesink and Nairo Quintana on the final climb on stage 5, but he shouldn’t lose more than he can take back in the time trial. Of course he can’t afford to lose a minute or more, but if he can minimize his time lose to 30-45 seconds I think he’ll end up winning the race.

For Robert Gesink it’s the complete opposite scenario. He needs to gain as much time as possible on the climb and then hope its’ enough to keep strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra behind him in the GC. Blanco have sent a strong team to support Gesink and especially Kelderman and Kruijswijk will be vital on stage 5. Alberto Contador managed to distance number two (Fränk Schleck) with almost a minute on La Montagne de Lure  in 2009 and Gesink probably needs to do the same if he wants to win overall. Together with Nario Quintana he’s my favorite for the stage win that day, but will it be enough?

While TJ needs to minimize the gap on the climb and Gesink needs to minimize the gap on the time trial, I think Andrew Talansky could be the full package. Talansky is strong on the climbs and the uphill time trial suits him perfectly. He has had a great winter season and he always gets better when the rest of the field are getting tired. Talansky was less than a second from beating Bradley Wiggins in the time trial in Tour de Romandie last year and he distanced Robert Gesink on most of the tough climbs in the Vuelta. If Talansky comes to the last three stages without any bad luck or time losses, he will be very difficult to beat, I reckon.

If anybody can beat him though, it’s Lieuwe Westra. The Vancasoleil captain got a big breakthrough in Paris-Nice last year where he won on Mende and finished second on the Col d’Eze time trial (just two seconds behind Wiggins) and according to Westra he’s actually feeling stronger this year. The big question here is if Westra can keep up with the best on La Montagne de Lure. On a good day, he shouldn’t lose more time than he can get back in the time trial, but if he doesn’t have one of his best days, I’m afraid he can only fight for the lower spots on the podium.

The last couple of years I’ve been praising Rein Taaramae but being sick just a few weeks before the race, I doubt he will do much damage. That doesn’t mean Cofidis won’t be in the front though. Buying in new strong riders to help Alberto Contador, Team Saxo-Tinkoff couldn’t effort to keep Daniel Navarro at his current salary, so instead he went to try his luck as team leader of Cofidis. So far it’s been one of the best decisions in Navarro’s career as he has started out the season in a great way.  He stayed with the best on the climbs in Ruta del Sol where he finished 10^th overall and just a few days later he won Vuelta a Murcia. Navarro is not good in the wind, but if he can manage to position himself up front in the flat stages and come to mountain stage without a significant time loss I think he can do some real damage. The climbs in this race suits him very well and he really likes Col d’Eze too. Last year he surprise quite a few - myself included - when he finished 11^th on the that time trial and being a lot stronger this year and having to prove himself as team leader, I think Navarro is set for minimum top5 overall.

Before ending this preview, I would like to point out Nairo Quintana again. I know I already said it many times last year, but this guy is a future Grand Tour winner. He makes the toughest climbs look like nothing and I won’t hesitate to pick him to win stage 5. If Quintana really has a great day he can distance the rest of the field with about a minute on this stage and if he can attack Col d’Eze the same way he actually has a chance of winning this race overall. The way I see it, Nairo Quintana can either win Paris-Nice of end around top5-10. With strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra, winning might be too much to ask for, but I’m sure Quintana will show you why he needs to be mention among the race favorites.

As always, I have a few jokers too. First up is Ion Izagirre. The Basque fighter showed in the Giro last year that is to be taking seriously and he has started out this season in a very strong way. He finished 4^th overall in Tour Down Under and put it some strong attacks in Ruta del Sol where he ended 15^th overall. He can count on support from his brother Gorka and pure climber Mikel Nieve who also did well in Ruta del Sol. Izagirre is good in the short prologs and the climbs in Paris-Nice suit him just fine. He won’t win this race, but I’m sure you will notice him.

My second joker is Maxime Monfort. He was very close to winning Tour Med overall, but couldn’t keep up with Thomas Löfkvist on the steep climb. Monfort was also hit by the stomach flu that kept many riders from doing their best but I’m sure he will be ready for Paris-Nice. Last year he finished 7^th overall and despite a significant stronger field this year, I still think he will finishi in close to Top10. The big climb isn’t too steep for Monfort and the final time trial on Col d’Eze shouldn’t be too much for him either. Monfort is good against the clock and he’s never too far off on the climbs.

Like I wrote in the beginning, the field for Paris-Nice 2013 is very strong and the race very open! I think the winner will be one of the first four mentioned, but there is a large group of riders ready to challenge them. Here I’ll try to give my view on the final classification:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Andrew Talansky

3. Robert Gesink

4. Lieuwe Westra

5. Daniel Navarro

6. Nairo Quintana

7. Richie Porte

8. Jakob Fuglsang

9. Denis Menchov

10. Ion Izagirre

11. Michele Scarponi

12. Jean-Christophe Peraud

13. Maxime Monfort

14. Peter Velits

15. Rui Costa

16. Bart de Clercq

17. Gorka Izagirre

18. Mikel Nieve

19. Simon Spilak

20. Sylvain Chavanel

Vuelta España - Preview & Favorites

If you know a little about cycling - and let’s be honest, the fact that you are reading this now means you’re not a rookie - you know there is one rider above everybody else for this Vuelta España. Alberto Contador is back and if you think he latest Grand Tour performance (Tour de France 2011) showed his real level, you’re very wrong.

Alberto Contador is THE favorite for this Vuelta and if he stays upright and avoid any bad luck it will be a surprise even bigger than Juanjo Cobo’s overall win last year, if he doesn’t wear the red leader’s jersey in Madrid.

Looking at the route one could argue that it favors explosive riders like Purito a bit more than Contador, but the fact is that any route suiting a climber suits Alberto Contador too. Team Saxo Bank desperately need a big victory and the way I see it anything but the overall win will be a big disappointment for the Danish team.  I could write several pages up and down about why Alberto Contador will win this race, but I really don’t see the point in it. Instead let’s take a look at some of the riders fighting for the last to spots on the final podium.

Forgetting Contador I count three riders with a solid chance of doing Top3 in this Vuelta. First one is Chris Froome. Despite an outstanding performance in the Tour de France the ex-Kenyan still feels ready to rock in Spain and remember that the Vuelta always has been Froome’s main goal this season. He showed in the Tour that last year’s Vuelta podium wasn’t a one-time-only achievement and with strong riders like Henao, Uran and &Porte to help in the mountains, Chris Froome will be the most dangerous rival to Alberto Contador. Froome himself calls this “the big chance of my life” and he says he still feels fresh despite going all-in in both the Tour and the Olympics.

The way I see it another podium spot for Froome should be a sure thing, but it requires he can keep his high level from the Tour and that won’t be easy in the last week and especially on Bola del Mundo. If Chris Froome is ready he most likely takes 2^nd place overall but if not, Team Sky could end up riding for Sergio Henao or Rigoberto Uran instead.

Not many riders - if any - can follow
Purito on a short, steep finish.

Next rider up is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Purito showed in the Giro earlier this year that he has what it takes to win a Grand Tour and as I said, this route looks to be designed by Purito himself. A lot of steep uphill finishes, a short team time trial (where Katusha nowadays are among the favorites) and only one time trial that even includes a climb in the middle. This is Purito’s biggest chance ever to finally get on the Vuelta podium and hadn’t it been for Contador’s presence I would have tipped him to win it. 

To support him in the mountains, Purito once again has Dani Moreno as his right hand but also Denis Menchov has decided to chip in and help out when needed. Both Dani and Menchov could probably do Top5 overall had they been team leaders on other teams and together with Alberto Losada, who seems to be very strong right now, Katusha is surely one of the best teams in this race. I will be surprised if Purito won’t be on the final podium in Madrid.

Last rider I see with a real chance of the podium is Igor Antón. It’s an even year this time and that means that the Basque climber will be ready, or at least so it seems. In 2008 Antón was called up to be the biggest threat to Alberto Contador in the Vuelta but unfortunately Antón had to abandon after a crash early on the Queen Stage to Angliru. In 2009 Igor Antón barely showed anything, but in 2010 he was back – better than ever! Anyone following the Vuelta that year can agree that Igor Antón would have won the race hadn’t it been for a horrible crash with less than a week to go. Antón was leading the Vuelta and seemed to have a gear more than the others uphill, but once again his race was ruined by a crash.

Last year Antón decided to change his program and do the Giro before the Vuelta. He took a beautiful stage win on Zoncolan, but the hard race had drained him for the Vuelta where he couldn’t stay with best. This year Igor Antón hasn’t showed much so far and that is actually a good sign. According to himself he feels as good as back in 2010 and with his strong performance on the mountain stage in Vuelta a Burgos and in Classica San Sebastian earlier this week I think we will see Igor Antón as strong as ever in this Vuelta.

Some might argue that riders like Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Juanjo Cobo and Jurgen Van den Broeck should be named as well as riders with a chance of the podium, but I must admit that I can’t see it happen. Gesink and Mollema seems to be a strong duo and they definitely want revenge from the Tour, but both of them still need to show they can stay with the best in all three weeks. For what concerns Cobo and VdB I just simply don’t think they have anything to show in this race. Cobo took the cycling world by surprise last year but I strongly doubt he can do it again this time – and let me remind you that Cobo often fails when he changes teams.

Quintana makes climbing look easy.

Instead I think Movistar will do a lot better with guys like Beñat Intxausti and Nairo Quintana, not to mention Javier Moreno. Intxausti showed to strong in the Giro but had one bad day and lost his GC. If he can be steady this time he could very well end up being the best Movistar rider in the final classification. Nairo Quintana is another interesting rider. This young guy is a born climber and when he’s in shape he makes even the most difficult climbs look easy. I have Quintana down for winning the Giro or the Vuelta in two or three years and I wouldn’t be surprised if he already took a stage win this year and maybe the mountain jersey too.

There is no fun without a couple of jokers and of course I have a few for you as well this time. First up is Andrew Talansky. There is no doubt that this young American is a future Tour de France contender and given the leader role in the Vuelta I think (and hope) Talansky is ready to prove me right. In Volta ao Algarve, Tour de Romandie and latest in Tour de l'Ain he showed small glimpse of what he can do and even though he might had preferred another time trial in the race I think his strong climbing abilities will be enough to give him a spot in the final Top10.

Same goes for Eros Capecchi who has been one of my favorite “talents” for (too?) many years now. Capecchi was outstanding in his U-23 years but he still hasn’t had his big breakthrough on the professional scene. In Giro del Trentino this year he showed to be one of the strongest in the mountains, working for Szmyd and in Giro d’Italia he showed the world how strong he was as super domestique for Ivan Basso. The route suits Capecchi very well and being quite fast on the line as well, there are many stages where the Italian can try his luck for a stage win. Capecchi will be riding for Movistar next year and if he wants to get a chance of being team leader in Giro d’Italia he needs to show that he can perform over three weeks when he’s the designated leader. I hope Eros Capecchi will be able to make Top10, but Top15 might be a more realistic goal.

There are a lot of riders fighting for the places from 5^th to 20^th in the overall classification and to give you a better idea about how I see their chances I have decided to give you my own Pre-Top20 for this year’s Vuelta España right here. Enjoy and thanks for reading!

1. Contador

2. Froome

3. Purito 

4. Antón

5. Gesink

6. Henao

7. Tiralongo

8. Mollema

9. Talansky

10. Quintana

11. Machado

12. Intxausti

13. Uran

14. Capecchi

15. Dani

16. Cobo

17. Monfort

18. Kessiakoff

19. Cataldo

20. Cunego