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No more previews in 2013

My preview of Sunday’s Il Lombardia was the last of its kind this year. My season is over and there won’t be any more previews here in 2013. I want to thank you all for reading during the season - I’m very happy for your kind words! Now I’ll take some days off and then I’ll start planning 2014.

For weekly cycling updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrconde. 

Thank you for a great season!

Mikkel

Il Lombardia - Preview & Favorites

It’s time for the final big one day race of the 2013 season. The Italian Il Lombardia, also known as “the race of the falling leaves”, takes place on the routes from Bergamo to Lecco. There are no less than five hard climbs to overcome on the 242 km and the last one, Villa Vergano, has its top just 10 km from the finishing line.

One of the most spectacular parts of the routes comes after 160 km. On the way towards the top of Colma di Sormano, the riders reach the feared Muro di Sormano. The 1.9 km have an average gradient of 15.8 % and parts of up to 27 %. There are still 82 km to go from the top of the climb and most likely, the peloton will regroup on the following 30 km towards the next climb. Madonna del Ghisallo is 8.5 km long and has an average gradient of 6.2 %. It has a steep part of 14 % in the beginning and after a flat part, the final 1.5 km kick up with 9.5 %. Last year, the race took place in rainy conditions and many have feared the same would happen this time. However, as of Saturday morning, the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Lecco by the time the riders arrive.

Last year, on the descent from Madonna del Ghisallo we saw Vincenzo Nibali, among others, crash on the wet roads and hopefully everybody will stay upright this time. The crashes during World Championship last week took out many good riders and it would be a shame to see the same thing happening in Il Lombardia.

With 12.6 km to go, it’s time for the final struggle of the day. Villa Vergano is only 3.2 km long but has an average gradient of 7.4 %. There are steep parts of 15 % near the top and this is exactly where Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez attacked last year. Nobody could keep up with Purito and being strong on the wet descent, the other riders didn’t see him until after the finishing line. 

Should a small group of riders arrive together, it’s important to know the finish very well. With 750 meters to go, the riders turn right in a roundabout and continues straight out for about 500 meters. Then it’s time for a very tricky S-curve. It’s starts with a  90° left turn and ends with a right curve. There are only 150 meters to go from here and this means first rider out of the last bend most likely wins the rain. If you attack into the sharp left-hand corner and take a take a few risks, chances are you will open up a big enough gap to stay in front all the way to the line.

Like last year, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is once again my personal favorite. He has had a week to digest the big defeat in Florence and he’s now eager to take revenge and finish this season with a good taste in his mouth. Purito knows that few - if any - can match his kick on the steep part of Villa Vergano and I won’t be surprised to see him solo away to win like he did in 2012. In Florence, he showed to be the strongest climber in the race and Il Lombardia is really a climber’s race. Last year, Purito won the World Tour ranking after winning this race and he’s close enough to Chris Froome to repeat that performance this time. However, it won’t be easy. Froome leads with 80 points and that means Purito has to win or get second while Froome can’t get any points at all. Purito's loyal teammate Dani Moreno showed great shape in Milano-Torino with a strong attack in the final and we can expect Moreno to go hard for Purito in the beginning of Villa Vergano. Katusha has a very strong team for this race and should Purito get caught, Dani Moreno will be able to play his cards in the sprint.

Update: Chris Froome won't start Il Lombardia due to back pains. This means we may end up seeing Purito working harder to secure a Top2 place than to win the race if gets away with only one other rider in the final. Topping the ranking for the third time in a row is a huge goal for Purito and even though he naturally wants to win Il Lombardia, a second place won't be too bad this time. 

The other favorites for the win this Sunday are the same as those for the World Championship. Alejandro Valverde will be eager to make up for his tactical mistake (letting Rui Costa slip away) and it will be interesting to see how Valverde and Rui Costa, now teammates again, will ride this race. Valverde knows he’s most likely the fastest rider on the line should it end in a sprint. Therefore, I would expect Rui Costa to attack on the final climb. However, Rui Costa had problems keeping up with the best riders on the steep parts last Sunday and I doubt he can follow Purito on the final part of Villa Vergano. The best solution is probably to attack early on the last climb and make a selection before the steep part. Rui Costa may even wants to pay back Valverde by working in front of the peloton towards the line. Like some said, Purito should have done in Florence.

Vincenzo Nibali finished just outside of the podium last Sunday. I’m sure few would disagree to the fact that Nibali was the strongest rider in the race and I expect him to do very well in Il Lombardia too. Like Purito, Nibali is eager to take revenge. He’s in great shape right now but like other riders without a strong kick, the Astana captain has to time his final attack perfectly if he wants to win this race. Many people say that it will be an advantage for Nibali if it rains again this year. However don’t forget that Vincenzo Nibali has crashed numerous times on wet descents. Last year, in Il Lombardia, he went down on the descent from Madonna del Ghisallo and in the Giro d’Italia this year, Nibali crashed again on a wet descent. Same thing happened last Sunday, which obviously made Nibali scared of taking risks in the final when Rui Costa attacked. Nibali is said to be one of the best riders on the descents, especially if it rains, but maybe it’s time to reconsider that statement. That being said, I won’t be surprised to see Vincenzo Nibali attack on the descent from Villa Vergano. He knows he has to get away alone in order to win and I’m sure he will try.

Together with Purito and Rui Costa, Dan Martin was one of my personal picks for the win last Sunday. The Irish climber had all the qualities needed to win but like many others, a crash ruined his chances. Afterwards, Dan Martin said he was feeling very good on the bike during the race and luckily, the crash didn’t cause him any injuries. This means the Garmin captain is now ready to fight again and I have big hopes for him in this race. Dan Martin is good on the climbs, he’s explosive and he’s fast on the line. In Liege-Bastogne-Liege, he outsmarted Purito in the final and we may just get another fight between the same two riders this time.

Il Lombardia is the last race I’ll preview this season and of course I have a couple a couple of jokers for you. The first one is Domenico Pozzovivo. The pint-sized Italian finished 6^th overall in the Vuelta last month and after a short break, he showed still to be in great shape in Milano-Torino. On the final climb, Pozzovivo was - im my eyes - the strongest rider in the race, having no problems following the attacks the final 3 km. However, Pozzovivo is not very strong in a sprint and this also why his chances aren’t great this Sunday. I think Pozzovivo is one of the few riders able to stay close to Purito on the steep part of Villa Vergano but I can’t see him outsprint any of the other favorites. A podium place is probably the best Pozzovivo can do with a finish like this but that would also be a good result. Together with Carlos Betancur, Ag2r has a very strong duo for the final climb.

Some point to Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan as the favorites but I doubt they will be able to stay with the favorites on the final climb. It’s true that Gilbert has won this race before but let’s be honest, Gilbert is not as strong right now as we have seen him in the past. Also, unlike the last many years, the climbers are now in tip-top conditions thanks to a tough World Championship course. Usually, their season would already be over but now they are all peaking. I’m sure this will make a huge impact on the race. Personally, I will be surprised if a climber doesn’t win Il Lombardia.

Other good jokers for the win are Diego Ulissi, Thibaut Pinot and Alberto Contador. Ulissi is in great shape right now but as I’ve mentioned many times; he’s not good on the descents. Especially not if it rains. However, Ulissi is very fast on the line and he’s probably one of the very few riders in the peloton able to outsprint Alejandro Valverde. Thibaut Pinot hasn’t won a single race this season and naturally, he’s eager to change that fact. He came out of the Vuelta in good shape but like many others in this race, he probably needs to solo away in order to win. The same goes for Alberto Contador. I was a bit disappointed by Contador last Sunday but in Milano-Torino he showed to have found his climbing legs again. He wasn’t on top of his game but if he keeps on progressing like that, he should be among the first riders on Sunday. Team Saxo-Tinkoff also has in-shape Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka (2^nd in Milano-Torino) on the start line and they should be able to snatch up a good result. Also, look out for riders like Simon Clarke and Franco Pellizotti. Clarke did very well last Sunday while Pellizotti showed in Milano-Torino to be in great shape. 

For a super-super joker, look to Louis Meintjes. The young South African rider finished second in the U23 road race last week and showed on the Fiesole climb how strong he is right now. Alone he bridged the gap to Matej Mohoric and even though he couldn’t stay with the strong Slovenian rider on the descents, he managed to keep the peloton behind him all the way to the line. In Milano-Torino, Meintjes joined a couple of attacks on the final climb and he is now very eager to find out what he can do against the elite this Sunday. We can’t expect this young man to win Il Lombardia, but if Louis Meintjes can make Top15 it would be a huge result for him and his wildcard team MTN-Qhubeka.

For live coverage of Il Lombardia go to steephill.tv

World Championship - Road Race Preview & Favorites

It’s finally time. This Sunday, the elite men’s road race is on and we are in for quite a show. It’ the most open World Championship in a while and with a rainy weather forecast; anything can happen!

In total, the race is 272.2 km long. The day starts in Lucca and from here; the riders have 100 km to overcome before they reach Florence. There are two climbs on this first part; Montecarlo (3.75 km / 3.5 %) and San Baronto (3.9 / 7.1 %). These two climbs won’t make for a selection but especially San Baronto will serve as an appetizer of what waits the riders later on.

When reaching Florence the riders starts on 10 laps of 16.57 km. The first two kilometers are flat but then the road kicks up. The Fiesole climb is 4.37 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The gradients barely drop below 7 % the last 1500 meters and this is where we find the steep parts of over 10 %. There are 10 km to the line from the top of Fiesole. The descent starts out very technical but then gets easier with nice and soft turns. However, there is a very steep part and then a difficult 90° left turn with about 8.7 km to go. If the rains, riders chasing to get back have to pay close attention to this corner in order not to see their chances disappear in a crash.

The following 2 km are fast very fast and after a sharp right hand turn, it’s time to climb again. The 600 meters on Via Salviati have an average gradient of 10 % and include a part of 200 meters with over 16 % towards the top. There are only 5 km to go from the top of Via Salviati and as the final part is very fast, it won’t be easy to catch a small group of riders if they get a gap over the top. With a less than 3 km to the line, the riders turn left and the following 150-200 meters are uphill with parts of 10 %. This may be the last place to attack if you want to solo away. The road kicks up a little again as the rider cross the railroad and after a 180° corner, the final 1500 meters are flat and straight out towards the line.

Everybody seems to have a different opinion on the best way to prepare for this World Championship and which riders it favors. It’s hard to keep track but here is some of the statements:

•           You need to ride Vuelta España.
•           This is a route for the climbers.
•           You need to be fast.
•           You need to be explosive on the climbs.
•           Don’t count on the Vuelta riders, the last week was too hard.
•           You need to be able to win on this kind of distance.

Confused? I understand. It may not look like there is a rider who can tick off every single criteria. However, there is one. More about him a little later.

First, let’s look at the teams with the most responsibility this Sunday. Spain has the strongest team (9 riders) with Contador, Purito and Valverde but home favorites Italy (9) isn’t far behind with the likes of Scarponi, Ulissi and Nibali. The Netherlands (Gesink, Mollema, Slagter), Switzerland (Cancellara, Albasini) and Colombia (Quintana, Uran, Henao, Betancur) also have nine riders at the start. So does France but I would be surprised to see them start working in the peloton. The French riders have to be aggressive in the attacks and with Pinot, Barguil and Voeckler they have enough firepower to put in a couple of strong attacks on the final laps.

Peter Sagan (Slovakia) has five teammates to help him, among these are the Velits brothers, Peter and Martin, plus Sagan’s own brother Juraj. Sagan would like this race to be as easy as possible and hope for a big group together on the final lap. Therefore I doubt Slovakia will put much effort into chasing the breaks early on. Last year’s winner, Philippe Gilbert and Belgium have seven riders at the start this time and compared to last year, they will be more aggressive. Gilbert needs a hard race with a big selection and if so, he will probably have to attack on Via Salviati on the last lap and get away with a couple of riders. This is his best chance of winning in Florence.

Profile of the circuit in Florence. 10 laps of 16.57 km.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara is the number one favorite. The Swiss Time Machine pays 3 to 1. It’s nothing new that Cancellara has a red circle around the World Championship but usually it’s focused around the time trial. This year, Fabian Cancellara has put everything into becoming World Champion in the road race instead. He has lost some kilos and in the Vuelta España, he showed to be in great shape on the climbs. As a warm-up for the road race, Cancellara has done both the team time trial (last Sunday) and the individual time trial (last Wednesday). Radioshack finished 4^th in the TTT while Cancellara took the bronze medal in the ITT, only two seconds form second place. There is no doubt that Fabian Cancellara is in great shape right now but is he strong enough to keep stay with the punchy climbers on Via Salviati? Remember, in total this race has more than 60 km of climbing. It’s not “just” a usually tough one day race, it’s a regular mountain stage. If Cancellara has to fight his way back after both Fiesole and Via Salviati, how much energy will he has left for the expected late attack in the final On the other hand, the U23 winner Matej Mohoric said he didn’t think the course was that hard and makes Cancellara one of the two big favorites.

The other top favorite is Peter Sagan. Sagan usually don’t have any problems on these kind of climbs and to make sure he doesn’t get dropped, he went to train hard in the mountains earlier this season. It quickly paid off and in Tour de Suisse, he actually won the mountain stage with the steepest climb in the race. Peter Sagan does well in the short time trials, he can sprint and he can solo away to win as well. It’s difficult to find any flaws but if there is one, it may be the distance. Sagan is yet to win a race over 250 km and even though he has come close a couple of times, it’s still one thing missing on his impressive palmares.

The Spanish duo Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez makes it hard to imagine a final podium without a Spanish rider. Valverde is a true specialist in these kind of one-day races and Purito too knows how prepare for a single day and then deliver. Both have been on the podium in the past but neither has ever won. This year both Valverde and Purito aimed at the Tour de France this summer. Afterwards they started out the Vuelta with the intention of getting ready for this Sunday. They finished 3^rd and 4^th overall in the Vuelta and seem very strong at the moment. Especially, Purito finished the Vuelta strong and I think he’s Spain’s best card to play. Few - if any - can match Purito’s kick on the steep gradients and I would imagine he would try to split the group on Via Salviati the last time. We saw in the U23 race that Via Salviati creates a lot more damage than Fiesole and the steep gradients really suits Purito who’s also good on the descent. Furthermore, Purito showed in Giro di Lombardia last year, that he can win in the rain as well. Of course, if it ends in a sprint of 10+ riders, Alejandro Valverde is the best option for Spain and if Peter Sagan isn’t in the group, Valverde shouldn’t have problems outsprinting the rest.

The last one of the top favorites is Vincenzo Nibali. He’s riding on home soil in Italy and naturally the expectations are high. Italy hasn’t be able to deliver since 2008 when the finished 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th in Varese. Now the World Championship is back in Italy and after Nibali won the Giro d’Italia and finished second overall in the Vuelta, everybody expect another top performance from the shark. To help Nibali take the rainbow jersey, Italy sends strong riders like Michele Scarponi, Rinaldo Nocentini, Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Diego Ulissi. Italy’s big problem in the past has been too many captains, this time it’s different. Pozzato and Scarponi are both in great shape but they have to leave their big egos at home. Ulissi is double junior world champion and I have no doubts he’ll win the elite’s race one day as well. Diego Ulissi is strong on the climbs and fast on the line. However, he’s not very good on the descents especially not if the roads are wet. Vincenzo Nibali needs to attack on Fiesole and make an early selection, then he probably has to dig deep again on Via Salviati and then attack on the descent as he has done in the past. Nibali knows his only chance is to solo away and I’m sure he won’t think twice if he sees an opening in the final.

As I wrote earlier, there actually is one rider fitting all the listed statement. This rider is Dan Martin. He started the Vuelta, he didn’t ride the last week of the race, he’s a climber, he’s explosive, he’s fast on the line and he has proven to be able to win on the long distance (LBL this year). After crashing out of the Vuelta, Dan Martin took part in Tour of Britain as his last preparation for the World Championship. He raced very aggressively and showed on the climbs that he is still going very strong. So far, 2013 has already been a great season for Dan Martin after winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege and stage 9 of the Tour de France. He has been targeting the Rainbow Jersey for a while and he has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking from afar if necessary. I think the most likely scenario for this race, is a small group of about five riders arriving at the finishing together. If Dan Martin is in this group, he will be very difficult to beat.

Earlier this year, Colombia seemed to have one of the most powerful teams for this race. However, both Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur didn’t really deliver in the Vuelta and it’s doubtful they will be able to perform - as previously expected - this Sunday. Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran are still two very strong outsiders but it won’t be easy for the Colombians to continue their dominance this season. Nairo Quintana’s father is hoping to visit the Pope when the race is over and naturally, it would be amazing for the humble climber to join his parents with the Pope carrying the Rainbow Jersey. I don’t think it will be happen though.

Map of the circuit in Florence.

Before this preview gets too long to read, let’s have a look at some of the jokers for the win. My personal joker is Rui Costa. Like Dan Martin, Rui Costa has already had a great season with the overall win in Tour de Suisse and two impressive stage wins in Tour de France. The World Championship has been a big goal for Rui Costa all season and the course really suits him. Portugal only has three riders in the race but both Andre Cardoso and Tiago Machado are dedicated to help Rui Costa win the Rainbow Jersey.

Another strong outsider is Chris Froome. Not since Greg Lemond in 1989 has a Tour de France winner went on to become World Champion. This year Froome has a unique chance of doing so but he knows he requires a hard race with a big selection. In the beginning of August, Chris Froome went to check out the course and train on the roads. He did the Via Salviati climb 10 times and he knows what to expect. After finishing the Tour, Froome immediately started talking about the World Championship and after training hard in North America the last weeks, he now seems ready. Like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome most likely has to solo away in order to win this race but don’t forget he actually outsprinted both Contador and Purito in Tour of Oman earlier this year.

For other jokers look to in-shape Robert Gesink and Thomas Voeckler, one-day specialist Alexandr Kolobnev and strong all-rounder Edvald Boasson Hagen. For the super-super jokers I’ll like to mention season revelation Tanel Kangert, World Champion specialist Matti Breschel and youngster Tom-Jelte Slagter who has a good kick on the hills and is fast on the line.

For live coverage of the race go to steephill.tv

World Championship - Time Trial Preview & Favorites

Tony Martin got the best possible start to this year’s World Championship when he and Omega Pharma Quickstep won the opening team time trial last Sunday. Now it’s time for the individual time trial and just like the last two years, the strong German is the top favorite.

Except for a slightly different finish, the course is the same as for the team time trial. It’s a power course for the big engines and basically it’s all about speed. The small hill in the beginning won’t matter much as the following 50 km are flat. Only the final few kilometers inside of Florence are technical but the riders doing the team time trial already know how to take the corners without losing time.

Half a year ago, I had no doubts Tony Martin would win this race and take his third consecutive World Champion title. However, I must admit Bradley Wiggins has been extremely strong recently. Both Martin and Wiggins are best on a course like this one and I think it will be a close fight. Still, I’ll stick with Tony Martin as my number one favorite. He’s been training on the course, he did the team time trial and he knows how to take the tricky corners in Florence. According to the German, he’s in better shape than last year and he feels more prepared. He got a massive motivation boost when OPQS won the team time trial and he’s now very confident.

While Tony Martin has had the same approach towards the time trials within the last handful of years, Bradley Wiggins' focus has changed completely. He went from being a time trial specialist to winning the Tour de France. In this process, Wiggins lost a lot of weight and he had to comprise his time trial training. After his failed attempt to win the Giro d’Italia this year, Wiggins now seems to have given up on winning another Grand Tour. He’s now 7-8 kg heavier than when he won the Tour and since June, he’s only been focusing on his time trial. In his comeback race after the Giro, Bradley Wiggins won the 37 km time trial in Tour of Poland when he distanced Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney with a minute.  Last week he won the short time trial in Tour of Britain without any problems and according to Wiggins, he too feels a lot better than last year. In 2012, Wiggins won the Olympic time trial just 10 days after winning the Tour de France. This time the World Champion time trial comes just three days after Tour of Britain. It will be very interesting to see if it’s enough time for Wiggins to switch focus and beat Tony Martin. Personally, I doubt it.

According to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara will take the bronze medal this Wednesday. The way I see it, Cancellara is a strong candidate but riders like Taylor Phinney and Adrian Malori have a solid chance of making podium as well. As stated in my preview for the team time trial, Fabian Cancellara’s main focus in on the road race on Sunday. No other top favorites are doing all three races and if Cancellara wants to win on Sunday, it may not be the best idea to test his limits on a course like this and take risks in the tricky corners. Cancellara has worked hard to get better on the climbs, we saw that in Vuelta España, and it means he has lost some speed on the long flat parts. He’s still among the very best in the world but against Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, I honestly can’t see him win.

Last year Taylor Phinney did the time trial of his life when he finished second to Tony Martin. Phinney was only six seconds from beating Tony Martin and becoming World Champion and now he’s out for revenge. He lives near the course and knows it like the back of his hand. Every time Phinney is out training on his time trial bike, he’s riding on part of the course and I doubt any of the riders starting tomorrow knows it better than he does. BMC had big ambitions for the team time trial but failed to live up their own expectations. They finished fourth and Taylor Phinney didn’t hide his disappointment. Wednesday the young American has another chance to show his potential and personally, I have Phinney down for a spot on the final podium.

The Italians haven’t had much to cheer for in the time trials for a while. Marco Pinotti was on his way to medal last year but then crashed in the final. Right now Adriano Malori is the Italians best hope and on a good day, he could surprise and make podium. Malori is getting better and better every year and this season, he has been very close to Tony Martin a couple of times. In Tirreno-Adriatico, Malori finished second in the final time trial, just six seconds after Martin. In time trial in Tour de Romandie, Malori finished second again this time 16 seconds after Tony Martin. It’s worth noticing that in this time trial Malori put in 18 seconds on the overall winner Chris Froome. The time trial in Florence is obviously a big goal for Adriano Malori and he’s been working hard in order to deliver a top performance this Wednesday. He knows the competition is fierce but if some of the other candidates strike out, Malori will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

The five mentioned riders are also the five riders starting last. For the complete starting order click here.

Among the super jokers for a medal we'll find riders like the Vacansoleil-DCM duo Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra. In the Tour de France this year, De Gendt started right before Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to not to change that fact. Fighting to keep Tony Martin behind him, Thomas De Gendt put in such a strong performance that he finished third on the stage. This time, his teammate Lieuwe Westra is starting right after De Gendt. Westra isn't on the same level as Tony Martin, but I still expect him to do Top10 this Wednesday. In fact, Lieuwe Westra says that being the first to catch Thomas De Gendt in a time trial is an extra motivation for him. It will be interesting to see how the two - soon to be - former teammates will perform against each other.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv

World Championship - Team Time Trial Preview & Favorites

World Championship Team Time Trial in Florence.
www.zeitgeistimages.co.uk

The World Championship week in Florence starts out with a team time trial this Sunday. Last year Omega Pharma Quickstep won in front of BMC and GreenEdge and this time I expect the same three teams to make the podium. However, Team Sky has the manpower to change a repetition of the 2012-podium.

Unlike last year’s edition, this course is - except for a short climb of 4:30 min in the beginning - completely flat. This combined with a distance of 57.2 km means it’s all about the speed.

Therefore, we can expect the teams with big powerhouses to fight for the win. There are long and flat sections without any turns and guys like Tony Martin, Taylor Phinney, Fabian Cancellara and Luke Durbridge can really make a difference here. The last 10 km are a very technical. There are at least 10 sharp corners in this part and you can lose and gain a lot of time in these corners. It's very important not to panic in the corners. The last time check is right before the technical part so it's not certain the ranking here will be the same as at finish.

Looking at the teams this year, it’s clear that Omega Pharma Quickstep is the big favorite. The Belgian team sends five (Martin, Velits, Chavanel, Terpstra & Vandewalle) of the six winning riders from last year. Only change is Tom Boonen who is being replaced by season sensation Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole has been in Top8 in all of the six individual time trials he’s been doing this year! While other teams may not look as strong as last year, OPQS is actually even better this time. I clearly expect the team to repeat their winning performance from 2012.

BMC came very close to winning last year but this time, I think they will have to fight hard just to get the silver medals. Time trial specialist Marco Pinotti is missing and so are Alessandro Ballan and Philippe Gilbert. Instead, Steve Cummings, Daniel Oss and Michael Schar are joining Taylor Phinney, Tejay Van Garderen and Manuel Quinziato. Both Phinney, Cummings and Schar were part of the BMC team winning the team time trial in Qatar earlier this year. However, BMC hasn’t performed well in the important team time trials the rest of the year and without a key rider like Pinotti, I think a silver medal - if even so - is the best they can get in Florence.

The biggest threat to BMC’s second place is GreenEdge. The Australian team did very well last year, even on a course not suited for their riders’ characteristics. With big engines like Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Jens Mouris and Daryl Impey, GreenEdge will be able to extremely fast on the long flat parts. Add to that Brett Lancaster and Michael Hepburn and you really have a strong team for a fast course. All six riders live in Girona and they have been training together for this discipline the last two weeks. A team time trial is all about working together as one and looking at the riders and their training, I think GreenEdge is the best pick to win this race if something happens to OPQS.

The way I see it, it will be difficult for the rest of the teams to medal against OPQS, GreenEdge and BMC. However, teams like Radioshack, Garmin, Saxo-Tinkoff, Astana and especially Team Sky will all be gunning for the podium as well. Garmin used to be among the best in this discipline but it’s been a while since they have produced a great team time trial. Astana did very well in the Giro (third) and in the Vuelta (first) but without Vincenzo Nibali to lead them, I doubt they will be able to make Top3 this time.

On the last day of the Vuelta, Nicolas Roche said that Saxo-Tinkoff was very eager to do well in Florence. Bjarne Riis has always been very fond of the team time trial and according to Roche, the Danish team aims for a spot on the podium. Christensen, Boaro, Roche, Mørkøv, Sørensen and Tosatto are the six riders for Sunday’s race and it will be interesting to see if they can live up to their own expectations. Personally, I don’t think they will do better than top5 but it wouldn’t be the first time the Danish team surprises in a TTT.

Radioshack is another solid Top5 candidate and on a good day may even Top3. Fabian Cancellara is in excellent shape right now and together with Jesse Sergent, Hayden Roulston, Yaroslav Popovych, Markel Iriza and youngster Bob Jungels, the team should be able to keep a high pace. However, Cancellara’s big goal this year is the road race. He’s the bookmakers’ top favorite for the title and the question is; “how deep will Cancellara dig in the time trials?” None of the other favorites are doing all three races (TTT, ITT & RR) and if Cancellara isn’t pushing it to his limits, he won’t be able to carry the team like he did in the team time trial in the Vuelta last month.

Map of the 57.2 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence. Pay attention to the technical last part of the route.

In recent years, it would be a mistake not to mention Movistar among the candidates. Once again, they have a strong team for this time trial but I doubt they will be able to better than 7^th-10^th place. Rui Costa, Jonathan Castroviejo, Andrey Amador, Jesus Herrada, Ruben Plaza and Eloy Teruel are all good time trialists but as stated in the beginning, this race is all about speed. Had this been a hilly team time trial like the ones we’ve seen in the Giro and the Vuelta in the past, Movistar would have been one of the favorites. However, on a 57.2 km flat course, there are simply other teams with bigger engines.

As of Saturday afternoon Garmin still hasn’t released their final teams yet. Both have the firepower to do very well this Sunday but as mentioned earlier, Garmin hasn’t really been able to deliver a good team time trial on the big scene for a while. Still, judging from the eight pre-selected riders, this may be their strongest team in a long time. No matter which six riders they end up picking, they are all strong on a flat course like this one. The team time trial used to be their specialty and I’m sure Garmin will be eager to show the world they still have what it takes fight for the win against the best teams.  

On paper, Team Sky also has a very strong team. All of their six selected riders (Froome, Porte, Boasson Hagen, Kiryienka, Siutsou & Thomas) did the Tour de France this year and individually they are all great time trialists. Chris Froome is leading the team but just like Fabian Cancellara, Froome's main focus is on the road race next Sunday. Of course, both Froome and Cancellara will be a huge help for their teams but thinking of the road race, they may hold back a little or decide not to take any risks in many sharp corner in the last part of the course.

For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv - and click here to see the starting order.

Thank you

This year’s Vuelta a España is now over and I want to say thanks to all of you visiting the site during the race. I really appreciate your feedback and kind words!

Next previews will be for the World Championships in Florence, starting already this weekend.

Stay tuned and thank you!