Vuelta Preview - Stage 18

To be honest I’m still not sure how I managed to lose 3 (or 5!) points in my duel with Felix on yesterday’s stage. Tiralongo looked like a sure thing and when he blew, Valverde seemed to be able to catch Contador, oh well… Now it’s time for what should be the last sprint stage before Madrid and I would be surprised if the sprinters let this one go.

Nobody imagined that stage 17 would be as hard as it turned out to be and with that in the legs I guess the riders would be happy to let a few guys get away early on the stage. It’s the longest stage of this Vuelta España and even though it’s flat all the way from Aguilar de Campoo to the finish line in Valladolid it will be another tough day in the saddle.

Last 2 km of finish in Valladolid.

That being said, it does seem like the biggest obstacle doesn’t occur until after 204 km of the stage’s total 204,5 km. Right after crossing the river in Valladolid the road turns left in a 90° bend into a smaller road which means that if you’re not among the five first riders in that turn, you can kiss your chances of winning goodbye.

I think Argos-Shimano will take control of the race as we have seen before but I also expect Team Sky to help out now when Chris Froome isn’t gunning for the podium anymore. Ben Swift seems to be coming around again and even though it will be tough to beat John Degenkolb, I think Team Sky at least will try to give him a chance to do so.

It’s not easy picking a joker since there haven’t really been any jokers in the top3 in the previous bunch sprints but people are getting tired now and this could mean that Manuel Cardoso has a chance. I have backed Cardoso as my joker earlier in the race, without luck, but normally Cardoso gets stronger during the race and it wouldn’t be the first time the Portuguese champion takes top3 in a sprint in the final week of a Vuelta. Caja Rural already got their stage win when Antonio Piedre won the in Lagos de Covadonga and I hope that the euphoria on the team can give Cardoso the last few percentages he needs in Valladolid!

Winner: John Degenkolb

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Jan Bakelants

Explanation: What a stage yesterday! Shame there were no TV images of Contador's decisive attack - the early pace was so fast, the host broadcaster hadn't even got the cameras rolling. Bert's magnificent win was history in the making and a tactical masterclass. Above all, it was totally unexpected. To be fair, I had predicted the win for David Moncoutie and he was at least in the break. But my joker Rob Ruijgh spattered egg on my face when he withdrew shortly after the start. Spoilsport. Shows what I know - I even predicted no action from the GC contenders. Anyway, moving on... Today should be more straight forward, with John Degenkolb taking his fifth Yaaah! For my joker, I'll go for Jan Bakelants. The last rider to win at Valladolid was the late Wouter Weylandt and fellow Belgian Bakelants was a team-mate of Weylandt at Leopard Trek. It would be a fitting tribute - plus RadioShack could do with a lift. 

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 5

After two stages for the climbers it’s now time for the fast guys to fight for the stage win. It’s another relatively short stage, only 168 km, with 8 laps of 21 km in Logroño, meaning that the sprinters will get time to study the finish before the end.

It’s a tricky route and even though the last kilometer if flat on the big Avenida de la Paz there are some difficult turns the riders need to pay attention to. About two kilometers from the line the route turns right in roundabout before turning left in another one 500 meters later. The last turn comes just before “flame rouge” where the riders turn right in a 90° curve.

It seems to be another hot day in Spain and with an expected head win the last kilometer, the sprinters need to save energy for as long as possible. My pick is once again Ben Swift who is strong in a tricky finish like this one and who I still see as the fastest guy in the race. On stage 2 he was in a terrible position in end and had to come from behind and got out in the wind way too early. Allan Davis and John Degenkolb took his wheel and only managed to pass him on the last 50 meters. 

Last 4 km - click for larger view!

Swifty’s only problem is that Team Sky’s focus is on Chris Froome and the overall classification and that means he will only have Flecha and Stannard to help out in the end. Still, Swift showed to have an incredible kick on stage 2 and if he manages to arrive in a good position he shouldn’t have  any problems taking his first (of many?) stages in this Vuelta.

My joker for the stage is Manuel Cardoso who’s been good in the Vuelta before. Cardoso’s team mate Marcos Garcia got world famous when he celebrated his 4^th place on stage 4 as had he won it and it would be nice for the little Caja Rural team if they got some real success now. I doubt Cardoso can beat guys like Davis, Degenkolb and Swift but he’s used to the warm temperatures and he knows how to perform in a bunch sprint after a tough mountain stage.  Furthermore, without a team to take control in the finale, the sprints will get very chaotic and that could be just what Cardoso needs to surprise the pack like he did when he won in Tour Down Under a couple of years ago.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Klaas Lodewyck

Explanation: The return to the Spanish plains should give the sprinters another rare chance to do battle in this year's mountains-heavy Vuelta. Swifty missed out on stage two but I expect him to draw level with Degenkolb on Wednesday. But Belgian youngster Lodewyck has been zesty so far and you get the impression he's enjoying being the joker of the pack. 

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.