Vuelta a España: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

The breakaway made it all the way Friday on stage 13. Unfortunately, this unlucky combination took out Beñat Intxausti. The Basque Movistar rider managed to get into the winning break on the day the race started in the hometown of his late his teammate Xavi Tondo. It would have been a beautiful story had Intxausti won the stage but he never got the chance. Instead, Warren Barguil took the biggest win of his young career after an impressive late attack. Vincenzo Nibali still leads the race overall and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the Red Jersey after stage 14.

The Vuelta enters Andorra this Saturday and that means it’s time to start climbing. However, the first 40 km are downhill and we can expect another fast start. On paper, a breakaway could make it again but this is a short and extremely hard stage and the favorites will be eager to test each other.

Port de Envalira is the highest point of this year’s race, the so-called Cima Alberto Fernández. The 26.7 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.2 % and start after 60 km. There are steep parts of 15 % near the top and we can expect a very reduced peloton already at this early point of the stage. If you have a bad day today, you will end up losing a of time and with many strong teams, I doubt the pace won’t be high on Port de Envalira.

The following two climbs, Coll de Ordino and Alto de la Comella, both have an average gradient of about 5 % with steep parts near the top. They will tire out the peloton but they won’t be decisive. After 148.5 km in the saddle, the riders arrive to the bottom of the final struggle of the day. Collada de la Gallina is 7.2 km long and has an average gradient of 8 %. It was on this climb that Alberto Contador was caught on the final meters last year. In case you don’t remember the stage you can watch it below:

In 2010, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez did everything he could to wear the Red Jersey when the Vuelta entered Catalunya. He wanted to show off the jersey on home soil and he managed to do it. Now we are in Andorra and once again, Purito is home. Confused? Don’t be. Purito is now living in Andorra and he knows this climb better than anyone does. He wanted to win here last year but after closing the gap to Contador, Valverde came around him on the final meters. This year, Purito is out for revenge. On Sunday the 8^th, it’s the national holiday in Andorra and according to Purito; “it would be the bomb to win here the day before the national holiday. Especially after what happened last year”. A breakaway has good chances of making it all the way but I think Katusha will be eager to control the race. Purito is 2:33 min after Nibali in the overall classification and he knows he has to attack. He can’t just wait to the final kilometer and take the bonus seconds.

Purito’s teammate Dani Moreno had a brilliant day on Collada de la Gallina last year where he constantly stayed next to Purito. Moreno is now 3:56 behind in the GC and there is no doubt that he will be acting as super domestique for Purito again this Saturday. On stage 12, Moreno went down the same place where Intxausti crashed but luckily he didn’t hurt himself too much.

Chris Horner has been the best rider on the climbs so far in the race. The American veteran easily dropped the other GC riders on the last mountain top finish and if he shows the same strength, he will be difficult to beat. Personally, I doubt Horner will be able to keep his high level for the rest of the race but then again, it wouldn’t be first time he surprised everybody in this Vuelta…

It will be interesting to see how Astana will ride this stage. Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in control and with his late attack the other day; he showed he’s very strong right now. Jakob Fuglsang will be an important help for Nibali when they are only 10 riders left in front. It’s very difficult to attack and keep a gap when the Danish climber sets the pace. Just ask Pozzovivo.

Collada de la Gallina. 7.2 km / avg. 8 %

Collada de la Gallina is a very tough climb but I doubt we will see huge times differences between the big favorites. They all seem to be very equal. Last year Alejandro Valverde attacked from the peloton with three kilometers to go but later on, he had problems following the strong accelerations of Contador and Froome. Valverde is only 46 seconds after Nibali and knowing there are still many climbs left in this Vuelta, he may be fine just sticking to the strong Italian and then beat him on the line.

Nicolas Roche is the big joker. He’s in the shape of his life but he got dropped several times on Alto de Hazallanas. Every time he managed to fight his way back but how long can he continue to do that? On stage 13, he looked very strong when he followed Katusha’s move on Rat Penat but it’s uncertain how he will cope with the hard climbs in Andorra. Saxo-Tinkoff also has Rafal Majka in Top10 overall and the Polish climber will be a very important helper for Roche.

A third Saxo-Tinkoff rider I think we need to keep an eye on for this stage is Roman Kreuziger. He finished 5^th overall in the Tour de France this summer but didn’t want to aim at the GC in the Vuelta. Instead, Kreuziger is focusing on the World Championship in three weeks’ time. Originally, the plan was to aim for a stage win but with Roche near the Red Jersey, Kreuziger may have to stay in the peloton and help his Irish teammate. The Czech Amstel Gold Race winner did a great time trial the other day and I think Kreuziger will be up there near the front to help Roche on Collada de la Gallina.

The weather forecast shows clouds and possible thunderstorms for tomorrow’s stage. The complete opposite of what we have seen the first part of the Vuelta. In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali showed that not even a snowstorm could hold him back on the climbs and he won’t be suffering in the bad weather. One that may do is Domenico Pozzovivo. He surprised many with his third place in the time trial and so far, he’s been looking very strong uphill. However, Pozzovivo doesn’t like the cold weather and we may see the tiny Italian fade a bit in the cold temperatures.

Thibaut Pinot has been among the best riders uphill the last week but he’s not feeling 100 % at the moment. The French climber is not comfortable on the descents and with three of them before the final climb; he may lose ground. Especially if weather is bad. Ivan Basso is no champion on the descents either but when he’s first in the front group, he doesn’t let go. The many climbs are good for a diesel motor like Basso and even though he can’t follow the strong attacks of Horner or Purito he knows how to keep his pace and come back to the front. Time after time.

In case a breakaway ends up making it all the way, look out for riders like:

Chris Anker Sørensen - Feeling better and better every day and is looking to win a stage from a break.

Sergio Henao - Out of the GC and hopes to save his Vuelta with a stage win.

Diego Ulissi - Strong and very eager to attack.

Igor Antón - 7^th Collada de la Gallina last year and already out of the GC.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 14, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Stage 14: The stage that disappeared - Video & Photos

Due to the bad weather, we only got to see the final 350 meters of yesterday’s Stage 14. Mauro Santambrogio won in front of Vincenzo Nibali who kept the Pink Jersey and un case you haven’t seen it yet, here are the video highlights and photos from the finish line.

Betancur, cold and disappointed after yet another podium spot.

Scarponi lost time again. Reaching the podium won't be easy.

The podium is also gone for Gesink. He lost 4 min in the rain.

Surrounded by 6 teammates, Cavendish made it to the line.

The Colombian ninjas are now ready for the big mountains.

Santambrogio finally got to celebrate a stage win in this Giro.

Nibali seems to have everything under control so far.

You'll find more photos from Stage 14 by Italian photographer Davide Calabresi right here.

Giro d'Italia: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

UPDATE: Due to snow, Sestriere too has been cancelled. That means this is the new stage profile. Naturally, the chances of a break making it are now not that great since many riders in the peloton will arrive to the final climb with fresh legs. Still, if the morning break has the right combination of teams, it could make it all the way.

Original Preview:
This is only the second big mountain stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia and we have already said goodbye to two of biggest favorites. Ryder Hesjedal and Bradley Wiggins are now focusing on the Tour de France but we still have many strong riders left in the race and we should be in for another great day of racing.

Click for larger view og the
original profile for Stage 14.

The stage is only 156 km but almost 50 of these are uphill. The first long drag toward the top of Sestriere is 38 km long and despite an average gradient of just 3.8%, the peloton won’t be very big reaching the top. The last 5 km kick up with an average gradient of 5% and includes parts of 9% as well. I would expect a breakaway already to be ahead at this point and Stefano Pirazzi will most likely be in it.

There are 24 KOM points up for grab on this stage and that means that if Pirazzi misses the break, other riders will get right into the fight for the Blue Jersey. As I’ve said a couple of times already, Vincenzo Nibali and Astana won’t be eager to catch the break. They will be happy if a breakaway can take the 20 bonus seconds on the line since Nibali seems to be the strongest rider in the race anyway. Vini-Fantini will be eager finally to take a stage win and even though Mauro Santambrogio seems like the best card to play, I think Stefano Garzelli will have his saying too.

Before this Giro started, Garzelli told me he was aiming at this stage, and the Italian veteran has been looking very good the last couple of days. He knew he needed a week or so to get into the right shape and the last lumpy stages, Garzelli has been very active trying to get into the right breakaway. It hasn’t been successful so far, but Stefano Garzelli is a rider who always delivers when needed. Furthermore, Garzelli still hopes to win the KOM jersey for this 3^rd time in his career and I’m sure he will show himself this weekend.

Androni have been in all the big breakaways this Giro d’Italia and I would be surprised not to see them put a rider or two in the morning break on this stage. Franco Pellizotti is still too close in the GC for the other favorites to let him get away early, but riders like Miguel Angel Rubiano and Diego Rosa are both out of the GC. Rubiano hasn’t had much luck so far in the race and this could be the day he finally shows his talent in the mountains.

Click for larger view!

It won’t be easy for a breakaway to make it all the way to the line, but if Vini-Fantini have a rider in it, I can’t see which teams should start chasing them down. Maybe AG2R if Pozzovivo and Betancur are feeling good, but I seriously doubt they have a strong enough team to do so. Lampre have a great team here and they could try to chase in order for Michele Scarponi to take back some time. The question is if Scarponi is strong enough to drop the rest of the favorites on the final climb? Right now, it doesn’t seem like it.

The final climb is only 7,25 km but it has an average gradient of 9%! It kicks up with 14% right in the beginning and the last 750 meters don’t drop below 11%. It’s an ascent for the pure climbers like Henao, Santambrogio, Pozzovivo & Betancur and if a break doesn’t make it, I think one of the two AG2R riders will take the stage win.

Domenico Pozzovivo tried to get away the other day but he couldn’t catch Uran. Betancur then counterattacked his teammate but according to himself, Betancur didn’t want to catch his friend up front. He might have able to and if he has the same legs on this stage, I think Betancur will be difficult to beat. The strong Colombian is still chasing his first victory this season and after two second places in this Giro already, it’s now time for him to get that stage win.

Also, look out for Team Saxo-Tinkoff's youngster, Rafal Majka. He's in great shape right now and not afraid of attacking. If GC contenders start looking at each other, I think Majka will be quick to take his chance. 

Favorite: Carlos Betancur

Top3 Pick: Mauro Santambrogio

Jokers: Stefano Garzelli & Miguel Angel Rubiano

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 14:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 14

Welcome to the mountains. Forget about the "walls" we have seen so far, now it's time for some real climbing. With no less than five categorized climbs on the menu and only 149,2 km to cover it all this is surely one of the key stages in the Vuelta.

The final climb, Puerto de Ancares, had its Vuelta debut last year and that made for a brilliant show despite it being placed in the middle of the stage. The climb is 9,5 km long with an average gradient of 8,1% but with steep parts up to 12-15% within the last two kilometers. Some people calls it "the Spanish Mortirolo" and even though it's not as tough as Mortirolo you can understand the comparison. Before the riders get to Puerto de Ancares they need to tackle another category1 climb, Alto Folgueiras de Aigas. The average gradient is "only" set to 6,7% over 9,7 km but that's because of the last part where it evens out a bit a kilometer before the top. It's very steep in the beginning and then it stays 7+% all the way.

Puerto de Ancares - 9,5 km / 8,1% avg.

Looking at the profile I would say this is a great stage for Alberto Contador to drop guys like Chris Froome and Alejandro Valverde. The final climb is so hard that the selection will happen without many attacks and if Dani Navarro and Rafa Majka manage to stay with Contador again, I think the Saxo boys can make life very hard for the rivals. Alberto Contador knows he needs to drop Purito in order to win this Vuelta but he also knows it's only the classification in Madrid that counts. Contador won't panic if Purito stays in his wheel on the steep parts and I think the two of them will be able to profit a lot if they can work together again.

The bonus seconds seem to be very important again this year but on such a steep climb like Puerto de Ancares it's not only a matter of seconds but of minutes. Therefore I think a break will have a decent chance of making it again and if so I would like to point out Paolo Tiralongo. The Italian came here to go for the GC but crashed on the opening team time trial and hurt his hip. Day by day Tiralongo has been feeling better and on the stage to Barcelona he showed he is ready to attack again when he took 3rd place after Gilbert and Purito. 

I think Paolo Tiralongo is back to his real level now and if he manages to get into the break he has very good chance of taking another Grand Tour stage this year. Tiralongo could also profit from the favorites looking too much at each other on the final climb and then attack without being a threat in the overall classification. In any case I see him as a very good joker for the stage win. It's also a very good stage for riders like David Moncoutie who aims at the KOM jersey. Also Nairo Quintana could do well on a steep climb like this one, but since I can only pick one, I'll go with Paolo Tiralongo.

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Paolo Tiralongo

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Amets Txurruka

Explanation: At last, we're in to the proper mountains. The Asturias beckons with a short and sharp stage 14 that gets harder and harder with each climb. While Joaquim Rodriguez has proved himself to be quite the canny tactician in red over his trademark ramps during the opening two weeks of racing, things will now take an entirely different complexion. I expect Alberto Contador to finally throw down the gauntlet and get that elusive win. With it, Bertie should take the red jersey as well. As for my joker, Euskaltel are due a win and Txurruka could be the man to deliver. Igor Anton is still too much of a threat on GC to be allowed to get into a break - but Txurruka should be given free reign to attack. I expect David Moncoutie to be in the break too - but I don't feel the French veteran will have the strength to prevail on the fierce Puerto de Ancares.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 14

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In between two sprint stages this should be a stage for a breakaway to make it. There is a hard category2 climb, Col du Portel (5,3 km - 6,3%), starting after 22 km and we should see a break taking its final shape here. From the top there is 85 km “flat” until the real final begins with two category1 climbs right after each other.

First up is Port de Lers (11,4 km - 7%) and right after the descent it’s time for a the feared Tour debutant Mur de Péguère (9,3 km - 7,9%). The last 3,3 km of Mur de Péguère have an average percentage of over 12% with parts up to 18%! There is still about 40 km to go from the top of Mur de Péguère, so it might be a good idea not to go solo too early with 20 km flat towards the finishing line.

Favorite:

As I said I think this will be a day a breakaway will make it all the way to the line. There are 20 KOM points for the polka dot jersey on the last two climbs and I know Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get out there and see if he can get the jersey of the shoulders of his Scandinavian rival Fredrik Kessiakoff. Also Thomas Voeckler will be interested in getting in the break and see if he can get back in the fight for the jersey plus taking another stage win. Voeckler is excellent on the descents and show good condition on the uphill sections too, so he is definitely one of the main guys to look out for.

Mur de Péguère - 9,3 km - 7,9%
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On Stage 13 Luis Leon Sanchez tried to take the peloton by surprise in the last two kilometers, but in disbelieve he saw the yellow jersey Bradley Wiggins rail him back in on the very final meters. Sanchez was obvious annoyed with Wiggins in the heat of the moment but afterwards he apologized on Twitter, saying sorry to the race leader. Maybe Luis Leon Sanchez took a look in the race book and realized it might be a good idea not to make Wiggins an enemy on the road if he wants to get away in the break on Stage 14. The stage is made for Sanchez and I wouldn’t be surprised if him and Voeckler once again found each other side by side in the winning break.

Among the GC contenders it’s no secret that this is a stage where Vincenzo Nibali and Cadel Evans need to attack. Both Nibali and Evans have shown they are not afraid of attacking on the descents and if they can manage to isolate Wiggins just a little bit before that - maybe on the last steep part of Mur de Péguère - we should be in for another dramatic finish!

Winner pick: Luisle Sanchez

Joker: Vincenzo Nibali

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 14

Gianni Savio explains:
Now it begins! The last climb to Cervinia isn’t very hard though so it all depends on if the favorites want to attack in the finish. I’m sure there will be established a breakaway in the beginning of the stage and if that break gets 12-13-14 minutes it’s possible it could make it with two or three minutes in the end. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get two races in the race. One for the stage win and one for the overall classification.

It’s difficult to pick out a favorite. Many riders want to the be in the break but if the peloton catches the break on the last climb it could be a good chance for my team leader José Rujano.