Giro d’Italia: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

First of all, I’m glad to see my joker for Stage 6, Edwin Avila, not letting me down and taking 11^th place in the sprint. Impressive by the young Colombian!

Now let’s look at Stage 7. This stage has ’breakaway’ written all over it. The profiles looks like bread knife and this leg breaking stage will tire out many riders before the demanding time trial on Saturday. Bradley Wiggins will probably hope for a quiet stage but for guys like Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal, this is a good opportunity to gain a little time before the expected massacre against the clock.

Looking at the stage, the first two names I thought of was Giovanni Visconti and Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez. Visconti is an expert in these kind of stages and Rubiano knows these roads very well. Troffeo Matteotti starts and ends in Pescara and Rubiano has taking podium twice within the last three years. The Colombian climber spent most of Stage 6 as the very last man in the peloton, where he got some TV-time for amazing bike skills avoiding the big crash with 30 km to go. Visconti also found his way to the TV-cameras at that crash, but unfortunately for sitting on the ground with a sore hip. The former Italian Champion went to hospital after the stage and even though nothing is broken, he may find it too difficult to perform at this best level. That being said, if Giovanni Visconti is ready after his crash, he's one of the biggest favorites for this stage.

There are four KOM sprint within the last 50 km and it will be huge surprise if Stefano Pirazzi doesn’t try something on this stage. He’s in great shape right now, he’s targeting the KOM jersey and he’s not afraid of attacking at any point.

The steep parts of 20% around Chieti are known from Tirreno-Adriatico and Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali always do well here. There are still 35 km to go from the top of the last hills in Chieti, but the final two categorized climbs are very steep too - 18% and 14% - and if Hesjedal, Nibali and others want to gain time on Wiggins, this is where they have to attack.

I think the following list of riders will be good candidates for a morning breakaway. Especially Matteo Rabottini will be eager to show himself in his hometown Pescara. The time shows how many minutes they are after Luca Paolini in the GC:

Rabottini	08:56
Locatelli	09:09
Rubiano	09:19
Dupont	09:39
Pantano	10:26
Salerno	11:35
Marcato	14:15
Rodriguez	17:15
Georges	25:49
Pozzato	28:10
Gatto	32:56
Lastras	37:14
Taborre	37:39

Katusha will be eager to keep the Pink Jersey one more day and it’s not impossible that the morning break will get caught on the finals climbs - even though I doubt it if it includes strong riders. Should it end with a fight between the GC riders anyway,  look out for Cadel Evans and Mauro Santambrogio. I said in my Overall Preview that Cadel Evans would take a stage in this year’s Giro, and this could very well be that stage.

Also, look pay attention to Danilo Di Luca. The self-proclaimed “Killer” seems to be in good shape already and if it all comes back together, he’s definitely one the peloton can’t let get too much of a gap. Vini-Fantini have a team full of good riders for these kind of stages and they should be represented with strong riders in the front of the race at all time during this stage.

Thursday, I talked with team owner of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela and Giro Expert on this site last year, Gianni Savio about this stage and here are his thoughts:

“This year, the Giro d’Itlaia is different. Usually, the peloton lets the breaks get away and fight for the win, but with everybody wanting to gain seconds, it’s not happening this year. Anyway, we - like many others -want to attack on this stage. It’s a very difficult stage and we know it won’t be easy to get the stage win. There are many teams without a GC leader and they will all try to take a stage win. Our plan is to protect Pellizotti & Rosa and keep them in the front of the peloton and to attack with riders like Rubiano, Rodriguez and Felline.”

Favorite: Cadel Evans
Top3: Giovanni Visconti

Jokers: Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez / Stefano Pirazzi / Danilo Di Luca 

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 7:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After three tough days, it’s now time for the sprinters. It’s a short stage, only 169 km, and it’s pancake flat. Pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish, Mattia Gavazzi and Francesco Chicchi have had some very difficult days on the bike, but now they have a chance to get their saying. Especially Chicchi and Gavazzi will be eager to get a good result after they both crashed on Stage 1.

The stage ends with two laps of 16.3 km in Margherita di Savoia. Stage 5 ended up in a big crash in the last corner with 1 km to go, but with the last three kilometers straight out this time, we should get a regular power sprint with all the big leadout trains lining up their guns.

Mark Cavendish is the big favorite. He showed on Stage 1 that he wins just as easily with a broken leadout as he does when everything goes smoothly, and it’s difficult not to see him winning this stage too. He will be able to rely on Steegmans and Trentin for the final leadout and even though Argos, GreenEdge or Cannondale ends up in front with 1 km to go, Cavendish still has a kick a level or two above the rest.

Being a power sprint, naturally John Degenkolb and Elia Viviani will have a good chance with their strong leadout trains. Still, I think guys like Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi will have a solid chance of taking Top3. Bouhanni didn’t look good on Stage 3 and 4, but he was right up in the mix on Stage 5 before getting hold up by the crash. The French champion is a former boxer and he shows that on the bike too when fighting for the right wheel in the sprint. Bouhanni doesn’t have the same kick as Cavendish, but he’s very fast on the final meters and he can now turn his frustration from Stage 5 into motivation for Stage 6.

For Stage 1, I picked Giacomo Nizzolo for a spot in Top3 - he ended 4^th - but allergies could prevent the fast Italian from being at his best. The weather forecast shows a sunny day in the saddle and riders suffering from allergies like Nizzolo and Phinney won’t have it easy in such a power sprint.

The first sprinter to get dropped on Stage 5 was Mattia Gavazzi. He knew the climb was too steep for him and he didn’t even try to hang onto the peloton when he lost ground. Gavazzi is in great shape right now and I think he will give Androni another podium spot in this year’s Giro d’Italia in this stage. Gavazzi believes he has the speed to beat Mark Cavendish right now, and even though I won’t say the same, I do believe he will put up a good fight.

It’s difficult to pick a joker for the sprint stages this year since all the sprinters in race are solid Top3 candidates. Instead, I would like to point out Edwin Avila. The young Colombian isn’t well known - yet -  but I think he can surprise a little in this Giro. I’m not saying he’s going to win a bunch sprint, or even making Top3, but he can definitely aim for a place in Top10. Like many others, he didn’t get a chance to test his legs on Stage 1 due to the crash, but he was in the wheel of Chicchi (in the wheel of Cavendish) and that shows he’s ready. Teammate Leonardo Duque will probably also try to get in the mix and together the two Colombians should be able to get a good result for the team.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top 3 picks: Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi

Joker: Edwin Avila

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 6:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv