Tour de France: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

The Tour continues in Bretagne with a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. The riders start out in Saint-Gildas-Des-Bois and finish in Saint-Malo 197 km later. It’s the flat stage but the terrain is still up and down all day long. In the end, anything but a bunch sprint will be a huge surprise.

The Route

There is not much to say about the route. This is a typical transition stage made for the sprinters and with just one small category 4 climb, nobody should get dropped today. The only interesting factor is the wind. The last 25 km take place alongside the coast and we could see a strong crosswind splitting the peloton near the end. None of the GC rider want to lose any more time before Wednesday’s time trial and everybody wants to stay in front. This should make for another nervous finish and luckily the route isn’t very technical.

The Finish

Without a single corner the last 5 km, this is a perfect stage for the big power sprinters like Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. Most likely, the final kilometers will be with a strong tail wind to keep the speed high and that means the leadout trains will decide the winner. The road bend slightly to the left with about 100 meters to go and naturally, you need to take the inner lane in order to win.

The Favorites

The final 5 km of Stage 10. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol have the two best leadout trains in the race and in a high-speed sprint, it’s very important to take the final lead. Both Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are close to impossible to pass when they get to launch their sprint in high speed behind their leadout. Therefore, if Lotto-Belisol get the front; Greipel will most likely win and if Argos-Shimano get the front; Kittel should take the stage.

Lotto-Belisol timed it perfectly the last time and nobody could get even close to Andre Greipel. Greg Henderson is one of the best, if not the best, leadout rider in the world right now and if he gets to deliver Andre Greipel with 250 meters to go, I doubt anybody will be able to pass him.

A tail wind sprint does however favor the riders willing to take a chance. Few - if any - can match Mark Cavendish’ kick in the final and if Cavendish ends up without a leadout, he needs to open the sprint early. Mark Cavendish is so strong on the first meters that he can jump clear of another team’s leadout train and with a tail wind finish, he will be very difficult to catch, even for Greipel and Kittel.

It’s maybe too easy just to say that either Cavendish, Greipel or Kittel will win. Still, it all comes down to the final leadout. I think Argos-Shimano are eager to show the world the real strength of their leadout train and therefore I’ll pick Marcel Kittel to win Stage 10.

The Joker

This stage is going to end with a bunch sprint but at this point, we already know all the candidates. Picking a joker is therefore not very easy. The only rider I can think of fitting this category is Julien Simon. The French semi-sprinter (sorry Julien) did very well on Corsica but hasn’t been feeling great lately. Still, this stage takes place on his training routes and on home soil - in front of his family - Simon will be extra motivated to perform. Also, Julien Simon’s team, Sojasun, has its roots in Bretagne. A morning breakaway without a rider from the local French team will be just as surprisingly as this stage not ending in bunch sprint.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Julien Simon (or any Sojasun rider…)

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 10:

Tour Preview - Stage 15

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This looks like a stage for the sprinters, but could also very easy end up with yet another breakaway staying clear of the bunch.It’s an undulating route going up and down all day long with no time to recover and being only 158,5 km I think the break will have a good chance.

Especially because GreenEdge now won’t be pulling like maniacs again since Peter Sagan now seems sure to win the green jersey. Team Sky won’t waste any energy on bringing it back together and that leaves us with Lotto-Belisol. If the break is to be caught it will be Lotto-Belisol - and them only - trying to bring back together. It would be much easier just to put a guy like Lars Bak in the break from the beginning...

Favorites:

Let’s say a break will make it (I think the chance 50/50 with a little advantage to the break) who will be in it? Almost every single team wants to put a rider up the road but of course some are better than others. One of my personal favorites to get in the break is Argos-Shimano’s Koen de Kort. Without Marcel Kittel and Tom Veelers the team doesn’t have any super fast riders for the sprints so their only chance of getting a stage win is from a breakaway. Koen de Kort has been trying many times the last couple of days and Stage 15 is actually the stage suiting him the best. If he manage to put himself in the final break Koen de Kort will also be able to take advantage of his fast finish and that gives him a pretty solid chance of winning in Pau if he arrives in the front group.

Another rider knowing how to hit the right breakaways is Luis Angel Maté. Normally Maté would have been in four or five breaks already but this is his first Tour de France and I could imagine he needed a little time to get used to it. In the beginning he also had Rein Taaramae to look after but with Taaramae out of the GC and David Moncoutié out of the race, Luis Angel Maté now has a chance to show himself off on the big scene. Look out for “El Lince Andaluz”!

If Lotto-Belisol manage to make this stage end in a mass sprint after all the natural pick would be Andre Greipel. He has already won three stages in this Tour and with Peter Sagan (probably?) being a little tired after Stage 14 and Mark Cavendish working in front of the peloton, I can’t really see who should beat him.

Winner, breakaway: Koen de Kort or Luis Angel Maté

Winner, mass sprint: Andre Greipel

Tour Preview - Stage 11

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This could very well be the Queen Stage of this year’s Tour de France. It’s only 148 km but with no less than four nasty climbs on the menu. Col de la Madeleine (Cat HC), Col de la Croix de Fer (Cat HC), Col du Mollard (Cat 2) and finally the last category 1 climb up to La Toussuire. If you aim for the polka dot jersey, this is the stage you need to be in the break. Still I have a feeling it will be one of the GC contenders who ends up winning this prestigious stage.

Favorites:

I know for a fact that especially Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get in the right break tomorrow. The Danish climber knows this is the day to be in front if his dream of the polka dot jersey should come true. Sørensen tried to save as much energy as possible on Stage 10 and we can expect him to attack right from the very bottom of Madeleine. Chris Anker Sørensen also knows what it takes to win in La Toussuire. Back in 2008 he finished an incredible solo ride in front all day by winning the stage in front of Pierrick Fedrigo and Levi Leipheimer - two riders I don’t expect much of on Stage 11 though.  Also Johnny Hoogerland will most likely try to get in the early break but I doubt the Dutchman will be flying since he still seems to be struggling to overcome his knee injury.

La Toussuire. 18 km - 6,1% average.
Click for larger image!

As stated in the beginning I think this will end up with a fight between the race’s best climbers. Team Sky never seemed to panic when Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali attacked on the downhill section, neither when Jurgen Van den Broeck and Pierre Rolland attack over the top of the last climb. Bradley Wiggins knows how strong his team is and unless Evans and Nibali try to attack from far out, I doubt they will ever manage to shake British duo Wiggins and Froome.

I think a group of 10-15 of the GC riders will arrive more or less together at the bottom of La Toussuire and then we will see who have something left in the tank. I’m convinced Lotto-Belisol will try again with Jelle Vanendert and Jurgen Van den Broeck and this time it might work out much better than on Stage 10. I also expect Pierre Rolland to keep on attacking and with the big morale boost due to Voeckler’s (predicted) stage win, Rolland could make it two in a row for Team Europcar.

Yesterday I wrote about Alejandro Valverde and today he showed that his legs are really good. As expected he managed to stay with the favorites at all time and being over 10 minutes after Wiggins in the GC, I think Alejandro Valverde will give a real try on Stage 11.

Winner pick: Pierre Rolland or Jurgen Van den Broeck

Joker: Alejandro Valverde

Tour Preview - Stage 6

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Another sprint stage and another win for Andre Greipel. Just like it was supposed to be. That’s 5 out of 6 correct winner picks. Let’s hope it can continue for a while. The question is now if Greipel can make a Tour de France hat-trick on Stage 6. Looking at the profile there is no doubts it will turn into another bunch sprint and once again the race organizers have put in a very tricky finish!

Favorites:

The last 950 meters are all flat out to the finish line so if Lotto-Belisol manage to time like they have done in the past three sprints it should be another for Andre Greipel. However I think Mark Cavendish will be extremely motivated to take revenge. On Stage 4 he got sidelined in the sprint by the crash and on Stage 5 he made a mistake of losing a few positions in the final and was unable to overcome Greipel on the uphill finish.

The Lotto-Belisol train has been perfect so far, but they need to be very alert in the final on Stage 6. Just before the 2K mark there’s a 180° corner in the big roundabout from Rue du 20. Corps American going to Rue de l’Argonne and after that yet another roundabout with 1500 meters to go. The most tricky part of the finish has still to come though. The “Last Kilometer Gate” is placed just before the viaduct under the railroad and right after that the road turns left in a 90° corner.  Luckily the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Metz by then, but if not the riders have to be extremely careful coming through that viaduct and turning left.

Thinking about the last days it seems almost impossible we shouldn’t see any crashes in the finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two riders go down in that last tricky corner.

The viaduct just before turning left in a 90° corner. 1 km to go.

Lotto-Belisol with Andre Greipel is of course the team and man to beat, but don’t forget that Mark Cavendish is always best when he has some rage inside of him. I think the World Champion will be those few extra percentages more eager to win and that could be very well be just enough.

With three sprint stages behind us already it’s not very difficult to say who’s going to be in the mix. Alessandro Petacchi took 2^nd place on Stage 4 and if he manages to place himself near the front and doesn’t lose any positions in the last corner this finish could be very suitable for strong Italian to take another podium place.

Winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Alessandro Petacchi

Tour Preview - Stage 5

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First of all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it will be another bunch sprint.

Favorites:

It would be easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the profile and the last kilometers of the stage.

Without a single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it. Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we are in for another dramatic day.

The last kilometers are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after 500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8 October.  On the profile it shows that the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before 700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish line on Boulevard Gambetta.

As of tonight (4^th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the  last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on the wet roads.

If you are looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter  for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a 4^th and 3^rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel

Top3 pick: Tom Veelers